Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
In my preview of last year's ALDS I wrote about how, for all the praise he receives as a manager, Mike Scioscia does a terrible job of filling out his lineup card. That didn't change during the offseason. Adam Kennedy has a .349 on-base percentage over the past four seasons but remains buried in the ninth spot while Orlando Cabrera, who has never had an on-base percentage that high in any of his major league seasons and carries a .315 career mark, bats second yet again. Darin Erstad, who hasn't had an OPS over .746 since 2000 continues to not only play every day, but bat in the middle of the line-up.
At least Scioscia has shifted Erstad back to centerfield, opening first base for Casey Kotchman, a huge upgrade that should have been made last year. Scioscia could similarly improve his lineup by starting Robb Quinlan at third and using the multi-talented Chone Figgins to force Erstad or Cabrera out of the lineup. Unfortunately misplaced loyalty in the case of Erstad and misplaced cash in the case of Cabrera have kept Figgins boxed in at third and Quinlan riding pine. Most startlingly, Scioscia has abandoned the complex platoon he employed last year that pulled the lefty Finley in favor of Quinlan against southpaws. The Angels have faced lefty starters in two of their three games thus far this season and Quinlan has yet to start, while the left-handed Erstad has started all three games.
The good news for Angels fans is that there offense is on the verge of a major rebirth. To the 30-year-old Vladimir Guerrero, the 28-year-old Figgins and the 23-year-old Kotchman, the Angels will soon add a full infield of prospects in 22-year-old first baseman/DH Kendry Moralis, 22-year-old second baseman Howie Kendrick, 21-year-old shortstop Brandon Wood, 25-year-old third baseman Dallas McPherson, and 23-year-old catcher Jeff Mathis, the last of whom is already on the 25-man roster and should be starting ahead of Jose Molina (yet another misallocation of resources by Scioscia).
The question is, should those eight men indeed coalesce into a dominating offense, will the Angels be able to maintain the pitching required to complete another Championship ballclub. If not, it will be a bitter irony as, for now, it's the Angels' pitching that makes them contenders. John Lackey experienced a breakout last year and could be even better this year. Twenty-three-year-old Ervin Santana will spend his first full season as a member of the rotation and could establish himself as a front-of-the-rotation future star. Kelvim Escobar salvaged an injury-shortened 2005 by returning from the DL as a dominating middle reliever. This year he returns to the rotation, where he was the Angels ace in 2004. Then there's that guy who erroneously won the AL Cy Young last year.
Meanwhile, the Big Three in the Angels' bullpen may just be the best in baseball, but Brendan Donnelly's pixie dust appears to be wearing off and there's considerable concern that Francisco Rodriguez could be headed for a big fall unless he agrees to correct his ugly mechanics. His increased wildness last year (4.28 BB/9 up from 3.54 the year before) is a warning sign that the 24-year-old closer would be wise to heed his coaches. As his comment in this year's Baseball Prospectus annual says, "Rodriguez's mechanics have eroded to the point that it's now a matter of when he will suffer a catastrophic arm injury, not if." Yikes.
Roster below the fold along with a note on Koyie Hill.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2005 Record: 95-67 (.586)
2005 Pythagorean Record: 93-69 (.574)
Manager: Mike Scioscia
General Manager: Bill Stoneman
Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Angel Stadium (96/96)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Current Roster
1B Casey Kotchman (L)
2B Adam Kennedy (L)
SS Orlando Cabrera (R)
3B Chone Figgins (S)
C Jose Molina (R)
RF Vladimir Guerrero (R)
CF Darin Erstad (L)
LF Garret Anderson (L)
DH Juan Rivera (R)
Bench:
R Tim Salmon (OF)
R Edgardo Alfonzo (IF)
R Robb Quinlan (IF)
S Maicer Izturis (IF)
R Jeff Mathis (C)
Rotation:
R Bartolo Colon
R John Lackey
R Jeff Weaver
R Kelvim Escobar
R Ervin Santana
Bullpen:
R Francisco Rodriguez
R Scot Shields
R - Brendan Donnelly
L J.C. Romero
R Hector Carrasco
R Esteban Yan
Typical Lineup
S Chone Figgins (3B)
R Orlando Cabrera (SS)
R Vladimir Guerrero (RF)
L Garret Anderson (LF)
R Juan Rivera (DH)
L Darin Erstad (CF)
L Casey Kotchman (1B)
R Jose Molina (C)
L Adam Kennedy (2B)
***
The Yankees have claimed failed catching prospect Koyie Hill off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hill will replace Wil Nieves on the 25-man roster, though exactly what will happen to Nieves reamains to be seen. In the meantime, to clear room on the 40-man roster (which implies that Nieves is sticking around), Jorge DePaula has been outrighted to Columbus (which is curious because I saw him listed on a preliminary Trenton Thunder roster just a couple of days ago).
Removing DePaula from the roster is a no-brainer, but replacing Nieves with Hill barely seems worth the effort. Hill is a year and a half younger than Nieves, but doesn't represent much of an upgrade at the plate, if any. Hill's career minor league line, a large part of which was assembled in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, is .281/.348/.399 while Nieves's, which also includes several season in the PCL, is .294/.322/.420. Nieves has been more consistant, hitting for averages in the .290 to .300 range year in and year out, but refusing to take ball four under any circumstances. Hill has shown more variance, with averages occassionally dipping down below .250 and walk rates that are all over the map. The only thing consistant about Hill's batting record is an almost complete lack of power, though even that failed to hold true when he slugged .471 with Las Vegas in 2004 (note that Las Vegas is also where Bubba Crosby had his one good season at the plate in 2003).
Ultimately, I see little difference between these two players. Hill is a hair younger and can switch hit. That combined with his former prospect status could mean that his ceiling is a bit higher, but he, like Nieves, has yet to even get off the floor (Hill failed to beat out Chris Snyder for the D-back's starting catcher job in spring training 2005 and was DFAed barely a year later--speaking of which, with Hill and Stinnett, the Yankees now have the same second and third-string catchers as last year's Diamondbacks, this doesn't feel like a good thing).
All of that said, we'll find out if all of this third catcher nonensense has any purpose tomorrow when Joe Torre start's Stinnett behind the plate in anticipation of starting Posada in Sunday's day-game-after-night-game. If Posada isn't the DH tomorrow night, then either man is just a wasted roster spot and the Yankees should quit this charade and promote a player who has a Phillipsian chance of getting into a game. Wait . . . never mind.
Similarly, if the Yankees traded Miguel Cairo for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and Bubba Crosby got sent down to make room on the big-league club, does Columbus send somebody down, etc etc?
If it's good for the team (which it. . . mostly has been? I guess? I mean it's a Joe Torre bullpen move and a Derek Jeter error from a sweep, no? Counterfactuals. . . :=:) then it's fine by me.
NBC's Mike Celizac wrote a column called about opening day called "Great day, unless you wanted to see the Yankees":
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12141841/
Though I suppose we should count our blessings. At least it's not at 5 am...in Japan.
The Angels feed is rediculous. Not only are the announcers awful, but they are missing things left and right by keeping graphics up too long. I think it is really a mlb.tv thing, but still...
Nope, they are that bad. I'm watching in LA. Rex Hudler makes Kaye look like Jack Buck.
If we can scrape more than 4 runs out on the days we don't score 10+, play some defense, we might win some games this year.
These Yankees have a way of making every pitcher look like Sandy Koufax.
How do you know they renewed it? My Gameday Audio is working and I was wondering if they did that.
Nothing to do even if they did - gotta love monopolies.
Holy God!!!!!! Joe had nothing to do witrh that, I'm sure.
scareduck 7 is correct. They dropped Real Player and switched to Windows Media Player this year which does not work on the latest versions of Mac OS X. I don't who I'm more pissed at.
KC held on to beat Chicago, Extra Innings just now switched over the Yanks, bottom 3rd...
I'm not having too much fun so far this season ;-(
They will do it all year. They even renewed me last year for the post-season without informing me. You have to actually call them to cancel.
Look at the bright side. No errors yet.
These are the things I need to know.
Three runs down, swing at the first pitch, why don't you?
When I had issues I just called them. It took less time than waiting for the convoluted email you're likely to get.
http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cheap/2005/cheap0826.html
Short answer: Yup.
Unanswered question: Is she a pitcher or catcher?
18!
MLB.TV . . . you cannot just choose Windows Media or Real like last year?
Sheff oh Sheff, we need that bat.
Maybe they outsourced it. I would not be surprised.
I would just get the TV package. When you look at the difference in cost, it's not that bad.
I bet its because of all of their stupid offseason moves: the windows media and new player. Hopefully they will get the hint
Also, is it just me or does Damon's swing look so weird and that it shouldn't generate any power?
Ok you're more serious than I am. I hate that I miss those few games.
I know Sirius and XM have MLB games. I wonder if that works well, but it must I suppose.
Christ! Why does 4 runs seem like 14 this early in the season?
That sucks. It really worked well last year and the tech support was more than adequate.
Do you see the pressure the threat to hit and run, steal and bunt have on the opposing team? Do you really?
And you're right, this seems like a mountain to climb already. If Juan R. cleans the bases, we're in deep sh*t!
Well, that's it for Chacon.
Oh, great. Now they're wondering if Jeter's injured.
Tell me about. I looked forward to this for so long and was hoping against all hope that we would come out like gangbusters.
Do they want to get booed at home to open the year?
I mean I hate to say it, but if this continues into May, Joe will have to go. It could get worse as a result, but how much worse?
Of course, he'd stay in even if he were hurt.
But yes, baserunners, please! Even if they're slow, I'll take 'em!
Hey! A baserunner!
So is Detroit this year's Chicago? I love the Yankees don't get me wrong! However I spent all of last summer in Chicago and I'll tell you, that was a fun team to watch. They played baseball, it was a trip. I had the Yankees on mlb.tv and the Sox on the tube.
Obviously neither one of us is married. Well, if you are, then hold on to that woman and don't let go, if you aren't missing any games. Sweet Jesus!
They are not on roids, they cheat in other ways. Donnelly for sure. The vaseline man.
You don't think Scocia knows every cheat in the book. The man threatened Frank Robinson. He's a rolly polly piece of garbage.
What made you think any pitcher would have a tough time against the Yankees all but 1 in 4 days?
Plus they suck to watch.
I watched him in LA when I moved here. This is exactly the crap he pulled when he wanted more money or a trade when he was here.
It's already over.
Relax, it's one game and the Angels are a good team. You can still beat up on the Orioles and Devil Rays.
Relax? It's only one game? In a vaccuum you're right, but it's not one game. The Yankees have looked like shit for 3 straight games.
The way we beat up on them last year?
120 is right on. I notice no difference. Well other that starting with no pitching, instead of waiting for the injuries.
128 It's time to accept the fact the Angels are not necessarily a team the Yankees should beat. They have great pitching, and a decent offense. The Yankees should have a great offense, and decent pitching. I give the edge to the Angels. They also have great young talent nearly ready to fill in should anyone go down.
You can pussyfoot around the fact that the "Yankees aren't necessarily supposed to beat" good teams like the A's and Angels, but you have to compete. You have to be in the game.
If we were in 1-1 pitching duels or a couple of see saw affairs with these clubs, you'd say the Yankees were in it but came up a little short. These games show the Yankees play in spurts and then fizzle out. They are competetive one inning at a time and then they go flat.
No youth = No exuberance
No exuberance = No spirit
Hell I'd take one Karim Garcia and one Chad Curtis right now.
By May it will be time to work some trades, eat some salary and bring in some guys who give a fuck.
148. I agree with you completely. However, I'm not writing off the season, just waiting to see something I haven't seen the last 170 games!
It isn't obvious to you that the guys on the bench couldn't care less?
To be exact, we are the third best team in the division.
I think we'll win the division and I think we have as good a chance as anyone to win the whole thing. Don't try to paint me as having written anything off.
I simply think that watching this brand of baseball sucks. The streaky crap that the Yankees put us through last season is not fun to follow. I hated last season. I was satisfied with the result in the regular season obviously, but you knew all along that the Yankees were not the best team out there and yet they pay $200 million for this team.
For $200 million dollars you don't expect you club to open the year 1-3 and look non-competetive in doing so.
This team will score 15 runs in one game and total 8 over the next 3. That's how it was last year and that's how it is so far. It's not writing off the whole season and the sample is not 4 games. It's about 180 games including last year, the playoffs, and this season to date. Same team, same results, same flat product on the field at $200 mill.
Did you watch the game? They suck right now, plain and simple. 4th game or 144th game, they still blow.
And can someone explain how a team can possibly be flat on April 7?
That's how I feel too. Not that the season is a disaster or whatever, but that it's really discouraging to see this kind of baseball.
Why do you think Mazzilli came back?
Why do you think Mazzilli came back?
He thinks they're trying too hard.
There is a 180 game trend. I don't have the stats, but I believe the Yankees have a split of some kind that shows their record in games where they score 5 or more runs, versus 4 or less. It doesn't work in their favor.
When they get multiple home runs they look great and everyone pats them on the back. When they don't it's a crapshoot.
And yup, he praised the amazing job the bullpen did.
Games where the Yanks score 5 or more (76-17)
Games where the Yanks score 4 or less (21-57)
There's your trend.
and the trend continues!
All 4 games fit the mold.
15-2 = Yanks win
Score less than 5, 3 losses.
Those numbers are included in the above post.
I'll tell you what I want badly.
Mazzilli as the manager, or Girardi, or some or any slug who will bunt, and hit and run, and squeeze, and steal....play baseball for christ's sake.
And that this team COSTS 200 mil doesn't make it WORTH 200 mil. This roster, top-to-bottom pales in comparison to Cleaveland's, Oakland's, or even Anaheim's - all of which have been assembled at half the cost.
So, yeah, we'll have a fairly successful regular season; but I wouldn't bank on a radically different result come October.
It's exasperating, really.
The Yankees can still win the World Series. The team can still win more than 100 games. The team can achieve everything it's set out to do this season.
I don't want to lose perspective on 4 games early in the year, on the road, against good teams.
I also don't want to wear blinders and chalk it up to those simple things either. I want to take a balanced look at how this team plays baseball over the last 171 games. It's the same team with the exception of a couple of bullpen guys. The trends and analysis can be extended over 171 games for that reason.
We're good enough to be one of the Major's top 3 or 4 teams, but when it comes down to it, we have a terrible record in games where we don't score at least 5 runs. That HAS to alarm you. That HAS to raise red flags about the way the current roster goes about it's business.
It doesn't prevent us from winning the World Series, but does it give us the BEST chance to win the title? I tend to think not, but there may be some people out there that believe we are approaching the personnel and system from the right direction and that we should just let the magic happen as it surely will. For my part, I'm not sold.
Better luck tomorrow.
Well, that's not where they are right now. They're still very good, due to their offense, but they're not going to dominate the AL any more. The numbers above show the reason -- pitching.
So how do the Yankees get better pitching? From my understanding, they don't have a lot of young talent they can trade. They would have to get rid of some of their hitters to get pitching, but they all have big contracts.
This is the consequence of building through free agency without having a strong farm system -- eventually those stars get old and their contracts are overvalued, so there is not a clear way to improve.
... and Detroit will win their division
... the Brewers will win their division
... no team in the NL West will finish over .500
ITS FOUR GAMES.
Our guys are not kids.
They don't start with 'Oh Boy, I made the team' energy.
They know they must win the WS(not an easy mentality).
We WILL score 5 runs or better a LOT!
Not all our games will be on the West Coast.
Not all our games will be against 2 of the best 5 teams in the AL.
I'm disappointed too... but really..
Let's wait until we have played 30 games to give up on these 'losers'.
Besides that is not the trend you seemed to imply in your posts. You led me do infer at least that you believe it has been a solid 180 game trend of desultory baseball without interruption; the same sort of baseball that we witnessed for at least the last 2 games. That is the "trend" observation that I take issue with.
BUT, what has been exposed is the team's inadequacies, and that pretty much nothing was done to address them during off-season.
Joe Torre was going to be with the Yankees, there was no way one could change anything about that. Yankee management, however, could have shown better judgement in identifying marginal players who have gained Torre's trust and dumped them.
Bernie Williams is NOT capable of being a full time DH, but getting Damon tied Torre's hands in his own mind in terms of giving Bernie the DH spot. Yankees made the mistake of bringing him back, and are now going to pay the price for the first 40 odd games.
Ditto bullpen, there is no other team that will employ Tanyon Sturtze for the money that he is being paid. Relievers like that should be part of every team's farm system. In Yankees' case, they are not. Farnsworth, Myers and Villone are newcomers, and should be given the minimum time to settle into their respective roles. But Sturtze is more likely to hurt Yankees given his own suckiness and the mysterious trust he gained from Torre.
The starting pitching is largely the product of that disastrous Jaret Wright signing, along with Carl Pavano. While Wright will probably not get much chances to do harm, Pavano will probably not take the mound enough to make any positive difference (if he does).
Add to that the fact that Yankees have a porous infield defense with three GB pitchers in their rotation.
The only MO that works for this team is to jump to an early lead, build on that lead, and survive the inevitable 4-6 innings collapse by the pitcher somehow, and get the ball to Rivera in the ninth WITH A LEAD (otherwise Torre factor kicks in). That has been the case for the last 3 years, and is likely to be the case this year (maybe that explains Mike's splits when scoring less than 4 runs vs. more).
We will have to see if that gets the Yankees to the post-season. I believe TB and Toronto are more competitive this year, and certainly the entire AL Central is better. Certainly, this is going to be a tough year, and perhaps tougher than 2005. If the Yankees again dig the 11-19 hole for themselves, it is even less likely that they can survive that this year. But it is baseball, and the important thing is, it is still early. Go Yankees!
It's worth comparing this 10 year run to the league average to see where the numbers fall.
I went into depth at Canyon of Heroes and the trend is solid over 10 years....I just don't know if it means anything or not. Trends are fine as long as they mean something. The Yanks remarkable consistency in 5 and 4 run games extends to the beginning of the Torre era, but we've seen mixed results so the 5 and 4 run thing isn't the deciding factor....
195 Mike here is something you may be interested in and find rather illuminating. An article from THT that I think is on point and should make you feel somewhat better about the Yankee "trend" you're struggling with. It's also further proof that James's "Pythagorean" work was incredibly inspired. Good luck.
Link was the same length as MASL so I left as is.
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