Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Eleven days have passed since I last played the assumption game to try to predict how the Yankees, Red Sox and Indians would be stacked up heading into the season's final weekend. Thus far, the Red Sox and Indians have performed exactly as expected (though the Red Sox have done so by sweeping the Orioles and losing two of three to the Devil Rays where I expected them to take two of three from both), while the Yankees, in sweeping Baltimore last week at home, have exceeded my assumptions by one game. As a result, rather than trailing the Sox and Tribe by a game, the Yankees have pulled even with them (pending the result of Game One of today's doubleheader in Boston, that is).
With just three games left before the division showdowns in Boston and Cleveland, let's look at this another way. Let's assume the Red Sox win this afternoon and that the Yanks, Red Sox, White Sox, and Tribe all win two of their remaining three games prior to this weekend. That will keep the standings where they are and send the Bosox, Indians and Yankees into the final three games with identical records, two games behind the White Sox. If that were to happen, here are the possible outcomes this weekend:
Assuming the Yanks and Sox split their series two games to one, the winner winning the AL East:
If Cleveland sweeps Chicago, the Indians win the Central, the White Sox win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.
If Cleveland wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.
If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.
If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, the NY/Bos loser wins the Wild Card and the Indians winner go home.
If the NY/Bos series results in a sweep here's what changes:
If Chicago wins two of three, the White Sox win the Central, the Indians win the Wild Card and the NY/Bos loser goes home.
If Chicago sweeps Cleveland, the White Sox win the Central, and the Indians and NY/Bos loser play a one-game playoff on Monday for the Wild Card.
It seems unlikely that the standings will remain unchanged through Friday morning, but it's fun to speculate. This can also serve as a game thread for anyone watching or otherwise keeping track of the day game in Boston.
Cliff Thanks for the scenarios, realisitic assumptions to begin with. What a week!
Sox are set up in the bottom of the first. Second and third, 0 out, with Ortiz up...
Come to think of it, I do alot of complaining about "Bushes" these days...
2-0 Sox, end of the first.
(1) Is anyone truly blown away by this stat?
and
(2) Was it not the Mets, whose flagship station has been FAN for close to 20 years, that had a recent dubious streak of getting swept in doubleheaders?
All right, Bush looks like he's settling in...
I'm hoping their stunned that it's so close to a coin toss.
It's still a no-hitter, though!
Or Hillenbrand for that matter...
One thing I'm starting to take away from this last few weeks of Sox games, though- if the 'big two' don't produce, no one else seems to step up big. That could work to our advantage come this weekend...
Meanwhile, Hillenbrand has raked against the Yanks and Sox equally this year.
"10. Mel Stottlemyre.
After 10 years as the Mets' pitching coach (including the 1986 World Series Champs), he's survived a decade of George Steinbrenner in the Bronx, and helped build a dynasty."
Just thought it was interesting...
Anyone know what this "Pinstripes in the Park" is tonight?
Why does Wakefield always look like he has a very bad case of sunburn? (even in October)
Wishfull thinking...
Papelbon?
Does anyone think that after facing all these junkballers this week- Lopez, Chen, etc, that we'll have any kind of edge going into Saturday against ol' Wakey?
All He Does is Have Good ABs!
Those Italian utility infielders, they're all over the place!
Has Nixon been taking fielding lessons from Matt Lawton?
So maybe I take back what I said about Gibbons. Still, I like his fire. He leads the league in ejections this year. Good stuff for a .500 team.
Best we can hope for now is for Clement and Arroyo to get hammered...
Would have been nice to see Wakefield throw more pitches and for the Jay batters to make Timlin work a little, but now the relief cushion narrows a bit for tonight's game.
The Sox went with all of their starters and got just three runs of Bush & McGowan, that's encouraging. Too Bad Wakefield is aces these days. Saturday's game may have lost it's made-for-FOX backstory, but with Wakefield facing Johnson it just might be an even better game than Schilling Johnson would have been.
F the Jays! Let's go Yankees!
But, I could be wrong.
Five wins to get in.
Five rings for the Joe Torre Yankees.
I started listening to the Sux game from MLB's website, I had to give up.....it makes me sick to my stomach seeing that team win or being ahead in any game they play.
re: number 105 above: Varitek, Graffinino, and Millar all sat this afternoon. They're tanned rested and ready for the second half this evening.
Yes, Mirabelli regularly catches Wakefield, but that diminishes the offense greatly. Yes, Tony Graffinino is a journeyman, but he's been Denny Doyle since coming over from KC. Yes, Millar sucks, but...um, er, well, he didn't always and he's the best rah, rah guy in the bigs.
Look I know we all (mostly) root for the Yanks and just want to see them in the Post Season. But as a freaking baseball fan, how can you not love this? Did anyone think the Jay's were really going to sweep Boston today? Not a chance.
Sure this is tense, but this is why I love baseball.
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