Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball, and the Yankees just swept them in a series in which the Sox threw their three best starting pitchers. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are the worst team in baseball and the Yankees took six of eight from them after the All-Star break. This weekend the Yankees will once again miss not only Scott Kazmir, but James Shields as as well. Can you say extended winning streak?
The catch, of course, is that the Yankees will have Ian Kennedy making his major league debut on Saturday. Kennedy's tremendously talented, but so is Phil Hughes, and he's been experiencing some growing pains thus far this season despite the fact that, as a man in his third full professional season and with seven major league starts under his belt, he's a veteran compared to first-year pro Kennedy. Hughes, who starts tonight, has just two quality starts in those seven major league outings and is coming off a pair of similarly frustrating outings in which he allowed just eight hits in 12 1/3 innings and struck out ten, but also allowed ten runs due to five walks in the first game and three homers in the latter.
Opposing Hughes will be Andrew Sonnanstine, who, as a fourth-year pro with 16 major league starts under his belt, is of similar vintage to Hughes (though, as a Kent State product, he's three years older). Sonnanstine's only career start against the Yankees was his first following the All-Star break. He allowed five runs on a walk and nine hits, including homers by Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui, in 6 1/3 innings in that game and hasn't been much better since, posting a 7.28 second-half ERA despite allowing just three more homers in his last eight starts and posting a solid 2.49 BB/9. The Yankees swept the Red Sox on the strength of their pitching. There's no reason they can't sweep the Devil Rays by preying on their pitching, just as they did the last time the Rays came to town and the Yankees scored 45 runs in the process of winning the final three games of that four-game set (the loser in game one, incidentally, was Mike Mussina).
Before I get to the D-Rays roster, here's a quick progress report on the Yankees as they exit the rough part of their schedule. Two weeks ago I said the Yankees had to "at the very least split" their fourteen straight games against the Tigers, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox. They went 8-6. After the All-Star break, I sketched out a plan for the Yankees' season in which they would have to do no worse than 12-11 against the remaining contenders on their schedule. With just six of those 23 games left (Seattle at home starting Monday and the Red Sox in Boston in two weeks), the Yankees are 11-6. If, over the final 28 games of the season, the Yankees can have the same rate of success they've had against contenders thus far in the second half (.647, which means taking four of six from Seattle and Boston), and the same rate of success they've had against the pretenders thus far in the second half (.677), they'll finish the season with 94 wins. Based on current winning percentages, that would give them the third best record in the AL and the Wild Card by some four games over the Mariners. That's good news, though it's important to note that it requires the team to continue to win at least two of every three games it plays. It's also worth noting that the Wild Card all but guarantees the Yankees a first-round matchup with the Angels.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2007 Record: 54-80 (.403)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 52-82 (.387)
Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Tropicana Field (102/102)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Ben Zobrist (minors) replaces Ty Wigginton
Josh Paul (DL) replaces Raul Casanova (minors)
Dan Wheeler replaces Shawn Camp (minors)
Juan Salas (drug suspension) replaces Jay Witasick (DL)
Jon Switzer (minors) replaces Casey Fossum
Joel Guzman (minors) replaces Jae Kuk Ryu (minors)
Current Roster:
1B – Carlos Peña (L)
2B – Brendan Harris (R)
SS – Josh Wilson (R)
3B – Akinori Iwamura (L)
C – Dioner Navarro(S)
RF – B.J. Upton (R)
CF – Delmon Young (R)
LF – Carl Crawford (L)
DH – Jonny Gomes (R)
Bench:
R - Josh Paul (C)
S - Greg Norton (UT)
S - Ben Zobrist (IF)
R - Joel Guzman (IF)
Rotation:
R – James Shields
L – Scott Kazmir
R – Andy Sonnanstine
R – Edwin Jackson
R - Jason Hammel
Bullpen:
R - Al Reyes
R - Dan Wheeler
R – Brian Stokes
R – Gary Glover
L - Jon Switzer
R – Juan Salas
R - Scott Dohmann
Typical Lineup:
L – Akinori Iwamura (3B)
L – Carl Crawford (CF)
L - Carlos Peña (1B)
R - B.J. Upton (CF)
R – Delmon Young (CF)
R - Brendan Harris (2B)
R - Jonny Gomes (RF)
R - Josh Wilson (SS)
S – Dioner Navarro (C)
15-day DL: R - Jay Witasick
60-day DL: R – Rocco Baldelli (R), R - Shawn Riggans (C)
Inactive List: R - Elijah Dukes (OF)
I got nothin' other than...
Let's go Yankees!
Where have all the groundballs gone?
I can only do this for so long (I'm heading out soon). Someone's gotta take over...
Where the heck is the Phil we saw before the hammy?
Think about it this way, Hughes is already striking out his fair share. He has better control than he has shown, and b/c of this being off, has wlaked more than he normally does/will, and can't quite put batters away as quickly. So if/when he regains that control, we are looking at more, quicker Ks...
Hughes has always relied on his control, thats his game. The control allows him to generate the GBs b/c of the curve...PLUS, Hughes hasn't been throwing his 2 seamer, which is more of a sinker
He did beat Boston at Fenway in August...but he's far from a world-beater at this point.
Too many BB!
Cheap hit
Igawa 11, Hughes 7, Clippard 6, DeSalvo 6, Rasner 6, Karstens 3, C. Wright 2 = 41 starts
But more so, with the inside the park HR last start, and now this, the fielders sure aren't doing Hughes any favors
And the other phenom, Homer Bailey, really struggles when he has to hold runners on. He's just not used to it.
As for the offense, well, lets just say its one of "those" games...
105 that's also kind of a misconception. Somehow it got out that phil "sat" at 95, whereas he has always "sat" around 93...
As disappointing as Hughe's overline seems, a young pitcher being this consistently able to strike out so many guys is a very very encouraging sign.
I think he looks ok, not world class of course, but not bad. Course, it should be only two runs instead of three, and if he can be a bit more economical, he can make it through 5 if not 6...
Wow, thanks BJ!
Also, in the minors Phil sat at 93, but he could hit 95 at times. Now he hits 93 at times, and sits at 90, 91.
"When Ian Kennedy had a day off last season as a Staten Island Yankee, he visited Times Square, not Yankee Stadium. He had never been to the Stadium until Thursday, when he took the field in an empty ballpark after the Yankees wrapped up their sweep of the Red Sox.
It was a neat scene, with Kennedy playing catch in the outfield, wearing Yankees workout gear as his Class AAA pitching coach, Dave Eiland, looked on. After a while, they moved to the infield and Kennedy threw off the mound."
Shit, it's only the 5th?
Ugh, wasted RISP
Maybe he can work it out and get to his minor league performance level, but his "potential" is irrelevant to that evaluation. I know lots of people with potential - executing is much much harder.
And we should know that - Farnswacker has as much potential as Hughes and he's never had the disposition to take advantage of that - which sucks.
"In order to help guide Kennedy and aid his preparation for the Tampa Bay matchup as much as possible, the hurler will continue to work with Triple-A pitching coach Dave Eiland."
And besides, results don't tell the whole picture with a 21 year old kid. You're not talking about a 30 year old journey man or even a 26 year old starter, but a developing kid coming off 3 months of inactivity. You're not looking for results, you are looking for signs of progress, things to work and build off of, and consistency.
(Looks outside for flying pigs)
The lack of control is especially disappointing.
Good Lord people, he's 21, go look at the #s for pitchers who were in the league when they were 21, and thats without the injury time off Hughes suffered.
Also he only throws 2 pitches. WTF?
There is clearly some questions Hughes and the Yankee system need to answer about him after this season. but there's still plenty enough reason to think he's going to be the next big thing. for one, not even Roger Clemens or Felix Hernandez managed to whiff 9+ per 9 at this age.
Fug that.
WE WANT A HIT
Boston and Seattle both down by 2, Cleveland down by 5.
Little consolation.
Go O Birds
Dust Lee next time he's up.
What. The. Hell.
I. Don't. Understand.
ONE run in against the D`Rays is unacceptable! Let`s hope the M`s continue to lose...
Complete train wreck and inexcusable.
good to see a garbage inning guy that won't cough up 9 runs in less than 1 inning ... sheese.
I laughed him off, dismissing his conspiracy theory as impossible, but watching this mess... this B-horrorflick... I'm thinkin' Mr. Casual might be on to something.
But here's what I know for sure:
I fucking hate when the Yanks play shitball.
I'm assuming gameday has it backwards, and Phil is pitching a 7 inning 2 hit, no walk gem, while the Yanks have lit up the Tampa scrubs for 7?
Right?
Right?
um, right?
229 Well, Kennedy obviously, Gonzalez presumably, but surprisingly there's not a way for Wil.
Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Twins (first game) ... so far only one of them is working out... (he did win 4 outta 5 on my advice yesterday though. and the one he lost went against my advice.. i told him to bet on Kazmir instead of Guthire)
1) "LHPs shut us down" -- no LHP tonight.
2) "Unknown Rookie Pitcher" -- nope, a guy we've beaten up before
3) "no sleep after playing a late game then going on the road" -- nope, early game the previous day and we stay at our house where we own the opposition
4) "It's early in the season" -- nope, we're in the home stretch and need every damn game..no days off
5) unfavorable pitching matchup -- The Franchise vs Sonnanstine, riiiight...
The only remotely credible excuse is the typical letdown we have after we play the Sox, but nobody expected this abomination...this is down there with losing to the Rockies and Giants.
this pitcher pitching the game of his frigging life, of course one he will never repeat. A bit fluky that he pitched this well, but that's my 3 cents.
Luck + Fluke + Attacking strike zone + the Yankees never even showing up + being behind early on = BARF GAME
We're lucky Boston and Seattle lost tonight, but I think the Tigers are our real competition at this point. The division might be a bridge to far given Boston's schedule, and Detroit even sans teh Sheff is better than Seattle, especially given their respective schedules. Go A's.
If the idea is to maximize the chances that my MLB team wins every game, I give my MLB manager all 40 guys at 12:01am on September 1. So, if he needs that pinch runner in the 16th, he's got that luxury.
Simple, no?
while i would hope we don't have to resort to this option, Kei Igawa has actually been showing a lot of progress in AAA, he's line today. 7IP 5H 3ER 2BB 9K 1HR, more improtantly, for the 3rd strait outting, he's managed to keep the ball on the ground with a 6-6 GO-AO ratio and threw 71 of 101 pitches for strikes. I would at least call him back up as a reliever after the AAA playoffs, i would hope we wouldn't have to use him as a starter but his 3 recent start is giving me some consideration again.
91-94 mph: 42 pitches
90 mph: 10 pitches
88-89 mph: 5 pitches
His velocity on fastballs did not drop to 90 mph until the fourth inning, by which time he had thrown over 50 pitches. He didn't drop into the 80s until the fifth inning, when he had thrown about 80 pitches.
It really looks like he's struggling with consistency, but mot of all with endurance. He is still only about an 80 pitch pitcher before his power really starts to drop. I think that we're just seeing a young pitcher coming off an injury and still building arm strength.
No slider, no 2-seamer, no effective change.
Loss of control.
Loss of 2-3 mph on his fastball.
No wonder he's getting rocked.
That's probably why they don't want him using them. If he could throw them well and consistently, I'm sure we'd be seeing more of them.
I think what we're seeing with Hughes are the typical struggles of a young pitcher who was perhaps rushed a bit. Homer Bailey, the pitcher often mentioned in the same breath with Hughes, is having remarkably similar struggles.
http://tinyurl.com/yqo9gt
ARod serves divorce papers & Dodgers show Torre some leg.
http://tinyurl.com/yqo9gt
ARod serves divorce papers & Dodgers show Torre some leg.
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