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Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2007-08-31 15:29
by Cliff Corcoran

The Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball, and the Yankees just swept them in a series in which the Sox threw their three best starting pitchers. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are the worst team in baseball and the Yankees took six of eight from them after the All-Star break. This weekend the Yankees will once again miss not only Scott Kazmir, but James Shields as as well. Can you say extended winning streak?

The catch, of course, is that the Yankees will have Ian Kennedy making his major league debut on Saturday. Kennedy's tremendously talented, but so is Phil Hughes, and he's been experiencing some growing pains thus far this season despite the fact that, as a man in his third full professional season and with seven major league starts under his belt, he's a veteran compared to first-year pro Kennedy. Hughes, who starts tonight, has just two quality starts in those seven major league outings and is coming off a pair of similarly frustrating outings in which he allowed just eight hits in 12 1/3 innings and struck out ten, but also allowed ten runs due to five walks in the first game and three homers in the latter.

Opposing Hughes will be Andrew Sonnanstine, who, as a fourth-year pro with 16 major league starts under his belt, is of similar vintage to Hughes (though, as a Kent State product, he's three years older). Sonnanstine's only career start against the Yankees was his first following the All-Star break. He allowed five runs on a walk and nine hits, including homers by Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui, in 6 1/3 innings in that game and hasn't been much better since, posting a 7.28 second-half ERA despite allowing just three more homers in his last eight starts and posting a solid 2.49 BB/9. The Yankees swept the Red Sox on the strength of their pitching. There's no reason they can't sweep the Devil Rays by preying on their pitching, just as they did the last time the Rays came to town and the Yankees scored 45 runs in the process of winning the final three games of that four-game set (the loser in game one, incidentally, was Mike Mussina).

Before I get to the D-Rays roster, here's a quick progress report on the Yankees as they exit the rough part of their schedule. Two weeks ago I said the Yankees had to "at the very least split" their fourteen straight games against the Tigers, Angels, Tigers, and Red Sox. They went 8-6. After the All-Star break, I sketched out a plan for the Yankees' season in which they would have to do no worse than 12-11 against the remaining contenders on their schedule. With just six of those 23 games left (Seattle at home starting Monday and the Red Sox in Boston in two weeks), the Yankees are 11-6. If, over the final 28 games of the season, the Yankees can have the same rate of success they've had against contenders thus far in the second half (.647, which means taking four of six from Seattle and Boston), and the same rate of success they've had against the pretenders thus far in the second half (.677), they'll finish the season with 94 wins. Based on current winning percentages, that would give them the third best record in the AL and the Wild Card by some four games over the Mariners. That's good news, though it's important to note that it requires the team to continue to win at least two of every three games it plays. It's also worth noting that the Wild Card all but guarantees the Yankees a first-round matchup with the Angels.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

2007 Record: 54-80 (.403)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 52-82 (.387)

Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman

Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Tropicana Field (102/102)

Who's Replacing Whom?

Ben Zobrist (minors) replaces Ty Wigginton
Josh Paul (DL) replaces Raul Casanova (minors)
Dan Wheeler replaces Shawn Camp (minors)
Juan Salas (drug suspension) replaces Jay Witasick (DL)
Jon Switzer (minors) replaces Casey Fossum
Joel Guzman (minors) replaces Jae Kuk Ryu (minors)

Current Roster:

1B – Carlos Peña (L)
2B – Brendan Harris (R)
SS – Josh Wilson (R)
3B – Akinori Iwamura (L)
C – Dioner Navarro(S)
RF – B.J. Upton (R)
CF – Delmon Young (R)
LF – Carl Crawford (L)
DH – Jonny Gomes (R)

Bench:

R - Josh Paul (C)
S - Greg Norton (UT)
S - Ben Zobrist (IF)
R - Joel Guzman (IF)

Rotation:

R – James Shields
L – Scott Kazmir
R – Andy Sonnanstine
R – Edwin Jackson
R - Jason Hammel

Bullpen:

R - Al Reyes
R - Dan Wheeler
R – Brian Stokes
R – Gary Glover
L - Jon Switzer
R – Juan Salas
R - Scott Dohmann

Typical Lineup:

L – Akinori Iwamura (3B)
L – Carl Crawford (CF)
L - Carlos Peña (1B)
R - B.J. Upton (CF)
R – Delmon Young (CF)
R - Brendan Harris (2B)
R - Jonny Gomes (RF)
R - Josh Wilson (SS)
S – Dioner Navarro (C)

15-day DL: R - Jay Witasick
60-day DL: R – Rocco Baldelli (R), R - Shawn Riggans (C)

Inactive List: R - Elijah Dukes (OF)

Comments (269)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-08-31 15:33:48
1.   yankz
I wonder if the national media would consider the Yankees the underdogs if they were to play LAA as the WC team.
2007-08-31 15:34:46
2.   ny2ca2dc
Per Pete Abe, Joba has been suspended 2 games. Charming.
2007-08-31 15:38:11
3.   monkeypants
2 Hmmm..when does that start? If they can count today, so what (other than the principle, because that is a pretty horseshit decision)?
2007-08-31 15:44:38
4.   Zack
3 He didn't appeal, so he'll be available Sunday, as would probably have been the case anyways. Makes 6 good innings from Prince Philip all the more important tonight
2007-08-31 16:00:04
5.   Sliced Bread
Nice preview, Cliff. Good times until that last sentence, but thanks for the reality check.

I got nothin' other than...

Let's go Yankees!

2007-08-31 16:06:54
6.   Mr OK Jazz TOKYO
5 I really don`t think we should fear the Angels so much, even with the current series loss. That lineup just doesn`t scare me in the playoffs, and with E.Sanatana imploding I think we can take them...
2007-08-31 16:09:54
7.   bartap74
Did Singleton just say that Kennedy would be the 43rd rookie to start a game for the Yankees this season?
2007-08-31 16:10:55
8.   yankz
First curve was a beaut, but he got a piece of it. 2nd one hung.
2007-08-31 16:11:13
9.   yankz
7 I heard 23rd...
2007-08-31 16:11:31
10.   yankz
Wow. Damn.
2007-08-31 16:13:08
11.   Yankees Brasil
He sure didn't wait to long to start sucking..
2007-08-31 16:13:18
12.   Mr OK Jazz TOKYO
When can we sign Carl Crawford??
2007-08-31 16:14:06
13.   JeremyM
Boy, I hope Ian Kennedy is good, because I don't think the Yanks can get it done with 3 starters.
2007-08-31 16:15:32
14.   SF Yanks
Not what I wanted to see. A different curveball to the first batter, and this is a different ballgame.
2007-08-31 16:16:01
15.   yankz
The stats say pitching from the stretch doesn't hurt Phil, but the past couple games my eyes think differently. Anyone agree?
2007-08-31 16:16:08
16.   Eirias
7 , 9 It was neither. Tomorrow's game will be the 43rd started by a Yankees' rookie.
2007-08-31 16:16:33
17.   SpoonG91
Would have been strike 3 if Posada held on.
2007-08-31 16:17:13
18.   SpoonG91
Is Ian Kennedy a hard or soft thrower?
2007-08-31 16:17:28
19.   SF Yanks
Big out. His mph is up so far.
2007-08-31 16:17:53
20.   yankz
18 He's between Moose and Phil.
2007-08-31 16:18:29
21.   SF Yanks
18 A Moose thrower.
2007-08-31 16:20:10
22.   yankz
93 MPH
2007-08-31 16:20:23
23.   SF Yanks
I wish I could see Hughes' command that he supposedly had in the minors.
2007-08-31 16:21:15
24.   yankz
Another 93 MPH, blew it by him.

Where have all the groundballs gone?

2007-08-31 16:21:53
25.   Zack
That FB Hughes just blew by him doesn't count b./c it was "only" at 93 mph...
2007-08-31 16:21:55
26.   JeremyM
Well, that looked like a disaster, good job settling down there.
2007-08-31 16:23:04
27.   Zack
I still strongly believe that we aren't really going to see what Hughes is capable until next season, with an offseason and ST to regain his strength and feel and this season in the past...
2007-08-31 16:23:23
28.   SF Yanks
Hopefully that was the inning that Hughes usually gives up 3 runs in. Now he gives up two more later and instead of 5 he's sittin at 3.
2007-08-31 16:24:14
29.   yankz
27 Only if the Yankees hire countless bloggers to redo his mechanics.
2007-08-31 16:24:27
30.   Mr OK Jazz TOKYO
Ortiz with the solo tater, Boston up 1-0 already...
2007-08-31 16:27:17
31.   yankz
Captain 3000
2007-08-31 16:32:21
32.   yankz
Not that anyone's here to read this, but Wake missed a start with a bad back.
2007-08-31 16:37:10
33.   yankz
What a curve!
2007-08-31 16:38:02
34.   yankz
Seriously- where are the GB?

I can only do this for so long (I'm heading out soon). Someone's gotta take over...

2007-08-31 16:38:48
35.   Yankee Fan in Chicago
Greg Norton of all people is fouling off multiple 2-strike pitches?

Where the heck is the Phil we saw before the hammy?

2007-08-31 16:38:56
36.   yankz
I bet they went through all Joba's pictures until they found one that looks just like a real mugshot.
2007-08-31 16:39:55
37.   yankz
Another fastball blown by him, but only at 92, so there's probably something wrong.
2007-08-31 16:40:13
38.   yankz
Screw you YF in Chicago- I was going for DiMaggio!!
2007-08-31 16:41:16
39.   Yankees Brasil
34 He's not throwing his two-seamer at all, that's why he's not getting GBs.
2007-08-31 16:41:19
40.   Zack
The one thing I do take out of that whole mechanical argument by Gomez is that the gbs might not be as common, which is fine per se...

Think about it this way, Hughes is already striking out his fair share. He has better control than he has shown, and b/c of this being off, has wlaked more than he normally does/will, and can't quite put batters away as quickly. So if/when he regains that control, we are looking at more, quicker Ks...

Hughes has always relied on his control, thats his game. The control allows him to generate the GBs b/c of the curve...PLUS, Hughes hasn't been throwing his 2 seamer, which is more of a sinker

2007-08-31 16:41:58
41.   Jersey
Sonnanstine has given up 14 home runs in less than 100 innings. Let's go boys.
2007-08-31 16:42:59
42.   bartap74
Murcer doesn't know what the words "unbelievable" or "acquit" mean. Sad.
2007-08-31 16:44:52
43.   yankz
42 Yeah, but the guy handing him notes on a napkin does.
2007-08-31 16:45:32
44.   yankz
Does anyone care if Singleton thought the guy stole the car or not?
2007-08-31 16:46:57
45.   Zack
Um, lets score some runs...
2007-08-31 16:47:00
46.   yankz
Great showing boys!
2007-08-31 16:47:14
47.   JeremyM
Please tell me this won't be another case of URP syndrome....
2007-08-31 16:49:45
48.   bartap74
44 I do. I'm a little concerned that Singleton decided the guy was guilty before actually hearing any evidence. Remind me not to put him on any of my juries.
2007-08-31 16:50:15
49.   Captain Munson
Anyone have a prediction on Kennedy's debut? Who would rather have Moose keep his start?
2007-08-31 16:51:07
50.   Zack
49 I'd put Kennedy down for 6IP 4R 5K
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-08-31 16:52:20
51.   yankz
I'm thinking the YES gun is slow, that looked way faster than 91.
2007-08-31 16:53:11
52.   yankz
A grounder!
2007-08-31 16:55:45
53.   SF Yanks
51 I think it's like 2-3 mph slower than the ESPN guns which are typically 2-3 mph faster than most guns, so I guess they are about right? Hmmm...
2007-08-31 16:55:45
54.   Max
47 We did tag him for five runs in 6.1 innings and made him throw 104 pitches just after the all-star break. I would hope we could at least get a repeat this time around...he's hardly unknown.

He did beat Boston at Fenway in August...but he's far from a world-beater at this point.

2007-08-31 16:56:20
55.   bartap74
The more they talk about Pena, the more I think about the Yankees releasing him and signing Scrabble.
2007-08-31 16:56:34
56.   Yankees Brasil
Can we get Hughes to throw strikes??
2007-08-31 16:56:44
57.   Mike T
Hello all, back from the fantasyland that is Carnival Cruise Lines. I think I need to go on vacation more often, not just because it's so much fun, but because the Yankees beat the snot out of their opponent, in this case the Red Sox, while I am gone. The limited TV offerings on board the ship only included ESPN International for sports, so they didn't really show much in the way of American sports leagues. They did take a moment during Sportscenter though to show highlights from the Yankees-Red Sox games in between soccer and auto racing highlights. Glad to be back, even though cruising to Mexico was a damn good time.
2007-08-31 16:57:10
58.   yankz
53 Reading the comments on the RLYW game thread, GameDay has him about 1 MPH faster I'd say.

Too many BB!

2007-08-31 16:58:07
59.   yankz
Holy smokes- already 50 pitches.
2007-08-31 16:58:26
60.   Zack
Singleton brings up an interesting point without mentioning it: Hughes has had problems working out of the stretch, and I bet a lot of that is b/c he so rarely had to in the minors...Hughes has never had adversity before and never had to battle...

Cheap hit

2007-08-31 16:58:33
61.   Captain Munson
50 pitches in 2.1 innings - wont last long with what Hughes is throwing 2nite
2007-08-31 16:58:42
62.   SF Yanks
There sure are a lot of swing and misses on Hughes' 92 mph fastball.
2007-08-31 16:58:53
63.   yankz
60 I said that earlier in the thread, but I don't think the stats back it up. I'll look it up now.
2007-08-31 16:59:35
64.   randym77
WTF was that???
2007-08-31 17:00:12
65.   yankz
WTF just happened?
2007-08-31 17:00:13
66.   Zack
Oh Jesus. Can the Yanks possible screw up Hughes' starts anymore?
2007-08-31 17:00:27
67.   joejoejoe
7 9 2007 Yankee rookie SP games started:
Igawa 11, Hughes 7, Clippard 6, DeSalvo 6, Rasner 6, Karstens 3, C. Wright 2 = 41 starts
2007-08-31 17:00:44
68.   SF Yanks
Cano really bothers me with his laziness.
2007-08-31 17:01:32
69.   Zack
I wouldn't call that play laziness on Cano's part, just a screw up...

But more so, with the inside the park HR last start, and now this, the fielders sure aren't doing Hughes any favors

2007-08-31 17:01:46
70.   randym77
60 Very common problem with young pitchers. Heck, Wanger had that problem for awhile.

And the other phenom, Homer Bailey, really struggles when he has to hold runners on. He's just not used to it.

2007-08-31 17:02:08
71.   Zack
This game is starting to scream "trap game"
2007-08-31 17:02:19
72.   yankz
Actually, in 98 PA with the bases empty, opponents have a .615 OPS against Phil. It's .810 with a runner on 1st, .826 with a runner on 2nd, and .780 with men on overall. So it appears that so far, he has pitched worse from the windup.
2007-08-31 17:02:26
73.   yankz
From the stretch, I mean.
2007-08-31 17:02:29
74.   SF Yanks
Now Hughes will bare down because he's already given up 3. Seems like a repeat after the last 4 repeats.
2007-08-31 17:02:42
75.   bartap74
Maybe we could ask the D-Rays to put on some Boston uniforms. This just doesn't look like the same team that just whupped the Red Sox.
2007-08-31 17:03:03
76.   randym77
I think Andy Phillips would have gotten that throw from Posada.
2007-08-31 17:04:23
77.   yankz
Hughes hasn't pitched badly at all, I don't think. Some bad luck with grounders (Crawford's non-DP ball, Upton's slow roller), and then that disaster. Only bad pitch I can think of, besides the BB (which are still too high) is that hanging curve to Iwamura in the 1st.
2007-08-31 17:04:31
78.   Zack
72 Wait, doesn't that say the opposite, that he pitches worse from the stretch?
2007-08-31 17:05:41
79.   yankz
78 I corrected myself in 73
2007-08-31 17:06:13
80.   Zack
Hello? Earth to offense? You there?
2007-08-31 17:07:14
81.   SF Yanks
80 Nope, unfortunately I think they took the night off.
2007-08-31 17:07:23
82.   yankz
I hate when this happens (O starts to suck vs. a shitty pitcher).
2007-08-31 17:07:34
83.   Yankees Brasil
Can we get the real Yankees now??
2007-08-31 17:07:56
84.   yankz
According to the RLYW thread (again), JD Drew is out with an ankle injury. That might actually be a blessing for them...
2007-08-31 17:08:08
85.   Max
This game isn't close to being over, but things look bad right n