Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Entering the second half of the season, the Yankees' record stands at 42-43, a game below .500. With 77 games left to play, they are tied with Toronto in second place in the AL East, 10 games behind Boston, and tied for fifth in the Wild Card race, 8.5 games behind the Indians (who were recently passed in the Central standings by the defending AL Champion Tigers).
Things look bad, and indeed they are, but 54 of those remaining 77 games will come against teams that currently have equal or worse records than the Yankees themselves. If the Yankees can simply break even in their 23 games against contending teams (say a 12-11 record in their remaining series against the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, Angels, and Mariners), the fate of their season lies in their ability to take advantage of the cupcake portion of their second half schedule. If they win two of every three games (in other words, just win their series) against those weaker teams, the Yankees will finish the season 90-72. That might not be enough to make the playoffs as the Wild Card-leading Indians are on a 96-win pace, but if they can mix in a few sweeps and a few 3-out-of-4 series wins, they'll be right in the thick of it.
That said, it has to start tonight. It's now or never. Any sort of stumble against Tampa, Toronto, Kansas City, Baltimore, or the White Sox will put the final nail in the coffin currently containing the Yankees' season. Exactly half of those 54 games come in 27-game stretch that begins tonight in Tampa Bay. The only time the Yankees have to leave the eastern time zone during that 27-game stretch is for a four-game series in Kansas City in two weeks. If they can't play something in the neighborhood of .700 baseball over those 27 games, that last flickering ember of hope for this season will be extinguished.
The good news is that the Yankees ended the first half of the season on a positive note, taking five of seven from the Twins and Angels, a pair of winning teams ahead of them in the standings. What's more, Phil Hughes is on the comeback trail (he'll make a rehab start with double-A Trenton on Friday and, if that goes well, another on Wednesday). Hughes could replace Kei Igawa as the fifth starter by the end of the month, which would give him a couple major league starts before the Yankees hit the tough part of their second-half schedule in mid-August. At this point just about everything has to go right for the Yankees to even sniff the playoffs, but the opportunity exists for that to happen.
As for the Devil Rays, their much-hyped offense has been undermined by injuries to B. J. Upton and the Pavano-like Rocco Baldelli, the frightening emotional problems of Elijah Dukes, a disappointing rookie performance by top-prospect Delmon Young (.278/.308/.412), and surprisingly average performance by All-Star Carl Crawford (.285/.336/.445). Carlos Peña has been a revelation at first base (.287/.395/.609, 20 homers), Brendan Harris has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop (.310/.365/.463), and Bronx Banter favorite Jonny Johnson Gomes has been on fire since being recalled in mid-June (.333/.370/.679, 7 homers in 23 games), but it's not been enough.
The reason is that the Tampa Bay pitching has been on beyond awful. I mean, crazy irridiculous bad. The Devil Rays' team ERA of 5.82 is nearly a run worse than the third-worst staff mark in baseball (the Phillies' 4.95), and is just shy of three-quarters of a run worse than the second worst mark in baseball (the Rangers' 5.08). Mix the earned runs back in and the D-Rays have allowed 6.17 runs per game. Edwin Jackson has a 7.23 ERA on the season after 16 starts and remains the team's fourth starter. Who their fifth starter will be come Monday remains a mystery.
Exactly four Devil Rays pitchers, active or otherwise, have a 2007 ERA at or above league average: Emergent staff ace James Shields (tonight's starter), 23-year-old future-stud Scott Kazmir (who has been merely average this year due in large part to an alarming walk rate), veteran waiver-wire closer Al Reyes (currently on the DL), and righty reliever Juan Salas (currently serving a 50-game suspension for violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy). That's it. No one else who has played for the Devil Rays this year has posted an ERA below 5.00 (unless you count the scoreless inning tossed by infielder Josh Wilson).
It's no surprise, then, that the D-Rays are limping into the second half having lost 13 of their last 14 and 20 of their last 25. Like I said, if the Yankees can't beat up on teams like this, they might as well stop trying.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2007 Record: 34-53 (.391)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 33-54 (.366)
Manager: Joe Maddon
General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Tropicana Field (102/102)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Greg Norton (DL) replaces Rocco Baldelli (DL)
Jorge Cantu (minors) replaces B. J. Upton (DL) on the roster
Upton is replaced by Ty Wigginton at second base
Wigginton is replaced by Carlos Peña at first base
Dustan Mohr (minors) replaces Elijah Dukes (minors/inactive) on the roster
Dukes is replaced by Delmon Young in center field
Young is replaced by Jonny Gomes in right field
Josh Wilson replaces Ben Zobrist (minors) on the roster
Zobrist is replaced by Brendan Harris at shortstop
Raul Casanova (minors) replaces Josh Paul (DL)
Andy Sonnanstine (minors) replaces Jae Seo (minors)
Jason Hammel replaces Jae Kuk Ryu (minors)
Jay Witasick replaces Al Reyes (DL)
John Switzer (DL) replaces Ruddy Lugo
Juan Salas is serving a 50 game suspension for a performance enhancing drug violation
Opening Day Roster:
1B Carlos Peña (L)
2B Ty Wigginton (R)
SS Brendan Harris (R)
3B Akinori Iwamura (L)
C Dioner Navarro(S)
RF Jonny Gomes (R)
CF Delmon Young (R)
LF Carl Crawford (L)
DH Greg Norton (S)
Bench:
R - Dustan Mohr (OF
R - Jorge Cantu (IF)
R - Josh Wilson (IF)
S - Raul Casanova (C)
Rotation:
R James Shields
L Scott Kazmir
R Andy Sonnanstine
R Edwin Jackson
L Casey Fossum
Bullpen:
R Shawn Camp
R Brian Stokes
R Gary Glover
R - Jason Hammel
L - John Switzer
R - Jay Witasick
Lineup:
L Akinori Iwamura (3B)
L Carl Crawford (CF)
R - Brendan Harris (SS)
L - Carlos Peña (1B)
R Ty Wigginton (2B)
S - Greg Norton (DH)
R Delmon Young (CF)
R - Jonny Gomes (RF)
S Dioner Navarro (C)
15-day DL: R B. J. Upton (R), R - Shawn Riggans (C), R - Al Reyes, R - Tim Corcoran
60-day DL: R Rocco Baldelli (R), R - Josh Paul (C)
Restricted List: R Juan Salas
Inactive List: R - Elijah Dukes (OF)
And to think that Gomes might have been available at the start of the year, when TB had 'depth' in the OF and he was in the minors. Dude can flat out rake.
Truer words were never spoken. If they don't win the first two series of the second half, they should start looking to trade Abreu and anyone else over 32 who isn't named Mo, Derek or Jorge...for position prospects.
If they do start hot however, I'm still betting Teixeira is wearing pinstripes before the deadline.
It is due to Brian Cashman's general view that many of our farm talent is better than it is. There is absolutely no reason why he cannot put a package together for Mark Texiera, and solve our 1B problems for years to come. Clearly, we will have to address 1B and C at some point soon. 1B being much more important that C right this second. If he doesn't put a deal together, we will have no power threat next season. Arod will either opt-out, or follow Boras' instructions and refuse to negotiate until seasons end--which is a bad bad move on his part, anything can happen between now and then. Boras willl find another Texas out there who will give him 5 years at 30 Mil. per., and the Yankees wont be that team. No player is worth 30 Mil., let alone 25 Mil. We are 10 games out with him having the best season of his career. He can hit 80 HR, and we still wont make the playoffs. 30 Mil. ummm, NO! Trade and sign Mark Texiera and be done with it. If Arod really wanted to stay, he would be taking Cashman's offer to negotiate now, so we have to plan on a 2008 without Arod. I like the guy, and any team is better with him, but its not a coincidece that he calls some of the most surly and selfish ball players his best friends.
"Though they had been rather firm in saying B.J. Upton would be back and starting in center field tonight, the Rays have decided to give him at least one more day. Upton will play for Vero Beach tonight at Dunedin, and the Rays apparently will go with a 24-man roster for the second-half opener."
I'll sort of buy that if you also would have refused to pay Clemens a pro-rated $24MM. But if you think Clemens is worth what we're paying him, then I would have to say that A-Rod is worth $30MM+ based on what each player provides to his team.
Just like anything else, a good or service is worth what the market is willing to pay for it. (Regardless of what you think an iPhone is actually worth, it is worth $500+ because millions of them are getting sold at that price right now.)
Scarcity is a tried and true economic principle. Right now, there is only one A-Rod...thus if you want him, you will have to pay whatever the market demands. That's not selfish on his part -- you and just about everyone else in the world would do the exact same thing in his position. If a company offered you $1MM in salary would you say "No thanks - I'm not worth that much and I like my current job for $100K." I think not... :-O
7 I think you overlooked that Scott Boras is also Mark Teixeira's agent, and any deal for Teixeira is also going to include a vary lucrative contract extension, as well as prospects given up to get him in the first place. Isn't that maybe equal to, or more costly, than paying A-Rod $30M a year? It certainly is if an extension can be worked out, given that Texas is still responsible for a chunk of A-Rod's contract going forward.
I also wouldn't fault A-Rod for acting in his own best interest, by refusing to negotiate with the Yanks for now. That's good negotiating tactics. Its like when Rivera talked in Spring Training about 'testing the waters' in free agency after this year.
need a reason to watch?
Joba's starting
12 The end of that is just not true. Davis is in AA, and has a higher WHIP Kennedy and Chamberlain (.01 below Horne), who don't have as much pro experience as Davis. He can't even approach their K/9. McGee has struck a ton of guys out, but he's almost 21 in A+. Price hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet. For some reason I can't look up stats on Neiman.
Oh yeah, Phil Hughes, who IIRC just turned 21, was no-hitting the Texas Rangers (the ML ones).
Damon DH
Cabrera CF
Jeter SS
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui LF
Posada C
Abreu RF
Cano 2B
Phillips 1B
HA
YAY! CAPTAIN AND A-GOD!
So I wonder if they're showcasing him for Texas. They need a CF and a pitcher like Kennedy and Melky/Gardner plus another prospect could be enough to get Tex (even as I'm lukewarm about the prospect).
Melky has become an excellent bunter...unfortunately, everytime he lays one down, I am going to think about the game against the Angels and why Torre didn't think to squeeze.
Johnny Damon 2007: .245/.339/.344
So, he's got a ways to go.
Career mL numbers:
Podsednik: .265 .344 .347 - 2772 AB
Gardner: .293 .388 .372 - 731 AB (up to 2006)
- 2007: .300 .392 .419 - 200 AB
And Garner is 1.5 years ahead of Podsednik's pace. He's hitting AAA in the middle of his year 24. Oh, and Gardner's has a better SB rate -
Podsednik: 190 SB 65 CS (750 G)
Gardner: 95 SB 19 CS (245 G)
But look at Gardner's 2007 line. If he's still developing power and he's got that speed, he's a good bit more valuable than Podsednik. Indeed, he could be more valuable than Melky.
75 79 Gardner, especially with a bit of pop, could be a fine 4th OF/spot starter, as Melky seems to have claimed the CF job. Can you imagine the Yanks paying two out of 4 OFs less than a million bucks? The last time that happened, best I can tell, was '95 when Bernie and Gerald both made well under $1M.
But on the next batter, he fielded a single in shallow center, and some dude was trying to go first to third, and Melky made a weak throw to A-Rod at third.
116 Do we know for sure that it was Karstens who pitched for Staten Island today? It wouldn't surprise me if EDSP paid the kid so he could pitch in his place.
Incredible.
It's fun to play against a team with a worse bullpen than ours.
When he's slamming one double after the other, it's wonderful...but more often, it's this impatient, first-pitch-swinging, rally-killing BS.
Krazy Kyle sighting!!
From: The entire world with eyes
Re: Kyle Farnsworth
He sucks
And if they aren't, it's not working.
Maybe, PeteAbe can do a readers questions session with Kyle. Every question can be: Are you aware that you suck?
You just know the D-Rays would love to get Kyle in their bullpen now. Maybe we could pick up, like, 125% of his salary and take Baldelli for him?
And then the ball would burst into flames.
They're definitely shopping Myers, right? Some NL team is interested in him.
167 Sure enough...Mo is still throwing. I guess that's not a suprise as 14 of Mo's 33 games have come in games in which the team was either ahead or behind by 4 runs. Even in a win, Joe finds multiple ways to frustrate me.
Eh, I've used that one before.
I'm not defending Torre at all in this case, but it seems to me the coaches decided that rust was more detrimental than pitching in meaningless situations in order to get work...especially given the rough start Mo had.
I do agree that there are times that Mo is simply trotted out there illogically instead of the deadwood that should get time in a blowout (Henn etc).
Also, to illustrate the point, consider the recent roadtrip: After pitching June 22, Mo is held out of two close extra inning/9th inning tie games on June 23 and June 26, but pitches with the team down 4-0 on June 27. He wouldn't have need to get work on 6/27 if he had been used when the Yankees desperately needed him in the other two games.
191 There are actual Rays fans? I just thought those ppl in the stands that weren't wearing Yankee hats were paid employees.
On a serious note, if the Yankees bench Andy Phillips for Shea Hillebrand then I believe the entire front office should be fired.
The Red Sox slugger spoke about the injury following Thursday's 7-4 victory over Toronto, the first game back from an All-Star break that began with Boston holding baseball's best record.
Ortiz stated he isn't concerned because of no swelling in the knee, revealing he suffered the injury last season at Yankee Stadium after getting tangled in netting around the batting cage."
The sea creature jokes write themselves.
He's having an MRI Thursday.
The sea creature jokes write themselves.
I understand that Lugo may need surgery to remove a hook embedded in his cheek.
He's having an MRI Thursday.
That's what the Red Sox have instead of Casual Friday.
But seriously, folks, I'll be here all week...
Jeez... with all his injuries, maybe JD needs a torn meniscus too.
202 Perhaps, but Papi's power isn't there like it used to be. Its taken him from "otherworldly" to merely "great".
Is this the cue for some of our resident Red Sox posters (Beth, ric, and debris among others) to re-appear?
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