Guess we're the only insomniacs, Cliff. That last line is money. I really don't see them getting rid of Fasano, though.

You have Green listed as an OF, is this true? If he's any good, that would definitely make Crosby seem more expendable.

Cliff, I think your math is off. I don't think there's a way to have both Green and Bubba on the team, even if Beam is sent down (and Cano is on the DL).

Think about it:

Infielders: Giambi, Wilson, Andy, Jeter, Cairo, Green, Jeter, A-Rod. (8.)
Catchers: Posada and Fasano. (2.)
Outfielders: Abreu, Damon, Melky, Bubba, Bernie. (5.)
SP: Moose, Wang, RJ, Wright, Lidle. (5.)
RP: Mo, Farnsworth, Proctor, Villone, Myers, Ponson. (6.)

That's 26 players. Someone from this group has to go -- and stay gone, because they need a spot for Cano.

2 I think you have a case of that pesky double-jeter-vision.

2 I know folks like to overrate Jeter, but counting him as two infielders! wow!

You might want to redo the math!

3 beat me to it. I wouldn't mind having two jeters on the team though.

Cairo's range at second is hardly impressive. I wouldn't mind having Andy at second (espically next year, once he works on the other IF moves a little more) as far as blind bats go at least some of Andy's rare connections go out of the park.

Also, Cairo is probably the most viable PR on the team.

Great, Cliff. I just posted an action pose of a contorted - and surprisingly flexible - Fasano bunting and you already want to take him away from me. Thanks a lot.

Oh, and that action pose is my screen saver. It's not like it's on my ceiling or anything. Ceiling's for Balboni pix.

Andy at 2nd next year? Uh Cano is an all-star this year at 23. Andy at 30(next year) is not cutting it for me.

9 I think the implication was as the backup 2B.

Cliff,

Hoooo Weeeeee Conan!

I could not agree more. I feel like the guy running down Wall Street after just pulling off an insider job for millions and not getting caught. Brian Cashman deserves this most recent work to be properly praised and objectively weighed in the press and online. There can be no question that he pulled off the "deals" of the year, making by far the largest improvement to any team in all of Major League baseball. Further, unless Henry proves to be the second coming of Derek Jeter, Cashman accomplished everything with almost no real cost, other than an increased salary next year. How another team didn't make an offer superior to ours to the Phillies for Abreu and Lidle is beyond me. There are enough teams out there with the cash to pay a young 32 year old Abreu. I understand David Ortiz's reaction completely. What he really meant was "we couldn't put together 4 better guys than that?" I didn't believe the PR spun monologue spewed by Theo Epstien today. That team doesn't have a sngle position player on the MLB club from their minor league system. What kind of long term plan do they have over there all of a sudden?

Grabbing Craig Wilson this afternoon for what was basically our household trash, was exactly as you put it "showing off."

If it were my choice, I would jettison Beam. If given the choice between Green or Bubba, and there only real role would be as a late inning pinch runner and/or sporatic defense, "or two Jeters of course," I go with Bubba. He is the best pinch runner we have-- and that might come in handy--and I don't think we lose much, if anything, by keeping him. There seems to be love-fest for Andy Phillips throughout the Front Office and with Joe, and that is a little befuddling, but I'm not complaining about anything today. Well, I do wish I hadn't sat through the entire Red Sox game today, ugh.

I think tomorrow should be "Brian Cashman Day" at the Stadium. They should parade him out there on a golf cart and give him a curtain call. No one should say he didn't do his job this year, big money team or no money team, he done good. Get Big Stein a Calzone, he's happy today.

Actually, Cario is the best pinch runner we have, he is 11 SB 1 CS this year, Bubba is 3SB 1 CS. quite a few of the SBs Cairo have are stealing 3rd too.

Playing the game itself should let you realize it's not just about the speed when u steal, it's about the read and jump... in that aspect, Miguel Cario (aka, Tony Womack at 1/3 the cost) is good.

Does Green still have options? Maybe they could stash him in Columbus with Guiel for a few weeks.

Though they's still have to punt someone when Cano comes back.

I think if it was up to me, I'd send Beam back to Columbus. "Bat Boy" maybe have a bright future ahead of him, but right now, there's no lead I trust him to hold. I can't imagine putting him on the mound unless the rest of the bullpen was unexpectedly kidnapped by aliens.

I doubt there will be a conga line in picking up Green through Waivers (or Bubba for that matter)

Hmmm. The local papers all seem to be expecting Beam to be sent down.

The Star-Ledger reports that Bubba's spot is safe, but I wonder if they really meant Andy.

In any case, with Cano, Dotel, and Matsui all possibly returning before rosters expand, Bubba, Andy, and Nick will be playing for their jobs.

sorry, should've picked up Yu meant back up 2nd basemen. I'm delirious about the steals Cash made.

baseman*, like i said, delirious, the tequila doesn't help either.

I'm glad that Ponson decided that he wanted to stay and come out of the bullpen. I think that if Moose and Guidry can tweak him a bit and make him a decent long man, he will be real help down the line.

There is no guarantee that the Yankees will make the playoffs, but Cashman deserves an A++ for these trades. The Yankees are definitely a better team than they were before and their odds of making the playoffs have increased significantly.

The Iceman delivereth.
Even if nobody is rockin' his jersey tonight, $!man has to be included in the right field 'roll call.' Got that, bleacher creatures?

But as shrewd as $!man is on the baseball business front, why would Mr. Upgrade shlep down into the city sewer system on one of the hottest days of the year (certainly his hottest) and subject himself to a "confrontation" with that rat bastid Mad Dog? Even if it was only for laughs, how could Cash stand the stench of Russo's rancid radio breath down there?

Clearly, $!man has a stronger stomach than most, to go with his titanium testicles and coolhand trigger finger.

The Cliffman delivereth, too. Excellent job once again.

"If Brian Cashman had a number I'd buy his jersey."

Mad funny, Cliff.

19 You hear that interview w/ Cash yesterday on WFAN? Man oh man. I was hollering in the car. Cash impressed the heck out of me - putting a verbal smackdown on Russo (jerk). That's the attitude that can win some ballgames. When you're GM of the Yankees, you don't need to take crap from some dope radio jock.

Yup - you called it, Cliff. A Cashman jersey would look nice today, and I'll echo the rest of the crew in their praise of today's piece.

Yeah, check out the WFAN site and click on July 31 Russo interview with Cashman. Cash gets ruffled. Good stuff.

I used to think my mother served up the best meatballs and gravy in the country, but did you see the "pitching" in that Indians-Red Sox debacle last night?

The Indians haven't been jobbed like that since they sold Manhattan for beads. (rimshot)

Lame jokes aside, I hope the new Yankees are ready for what they're in for. It's shaping up to be a pennant race for the ages, starting with a crucial AL East battle tonight.

308 comments on the Bronx Banter board last night (some really funny ones too) chewing over the trades, and what appeared to be a Red Sox loss. The Banterers are ready to roll.

Think Abreu, Lidle, and Wilson are in for a little baseball culture shock when they step into the Stadium tonight?

Good, solid trades. Now, if Cashman can only do something about David Ortiz. Anybody got a voodoo doll?

I can't think of a game situation in which I'd throw anything resembling a strike to David Ortiz but, for some reason, Major League pitchers continue to press the big red button marked "Do Not Press," which causes them to instantly lose muscular coordination, and bladder control.

If managers and pitchers refuse to issue Ortiz an intentional walk, the best defense I can come up with is a radical new-fangled Papi Shift.

You position your third baseman, shortstop, second baseman, first baseman, left fielder, center fielder, right fielder, and even your catcher approximately four feet in front of the plate. On the pitch, have them rush the plate, arms up, attempting to block that kick.

There is no other solution.

That kid was pitching scared in the ninth for the Indians last night. I saw the whole thing unfold and was busy cursing out the Tribe when I realized, screw it, Ortiz has homered against a lot of very good pitchers too. The Indians did a poor job--especially mincing around trying to get Youkilis to chase a bad pitch--but the facts are the following: D. Ortiz is a special player.

25 Actually my late inning Ortiz shift has the 3B, SS and LF positioned in the lower, mezzanine and upper decks respectively.

Seriously. Growing up we used to play what we called "The Running Game" which was our variation of "Kill The Guy With The Ball."

Guy starts in the endzone with the ball, while the rest line up at the 20 yard line.

Hike! and you're off to the races, trying to blast toward the weakest link in the fence rushing toward you.

99.9% of the time you got gang tackled.

That's pitching to Ortiz. The Running Game.

I used to have a well-reasoned argument that David Ortiz cannot be the MVP, but after last night it no longer flies. I know he has Manny behind him, but at some point you would think he'd ground a phat pitch into a game-ending double play - but he never does!

We can only hope that Ortiz gets his heroics out of his system this week before the Yanks go to Boston.

11 Don't worry. C.J. Henry is NOT the 2nd coming of Jeter. In his 20 year old season Jeter made it to AA and raked. C.J. is in low A and struggling. No comparison. Wilson is going to be a huge pick up. All of our outfielders and our 1st baseman(not including Sheff) are left handed. Melky hits better as a righty. Having Wilson and Bernie on the bench the rest of the year is going to be a huge positive. I can't get over how well the team is being run this year.

I think this team has to keep 12 pitchers. I know that means a bench player is lost. With Meyers in the bullpen the team needs an extra reliever so Proctor's arm doesn't turn into mush.

Hey, Ortiz struck out to end a game just this past weekend. This is getting to be the mirror image of the whole ARod un-clutch argument. He's not even the most clutch hitter of the month...Carlos Beltran hit 3 GS among his other feats in July.

27 Brilliant.

It's hard to describe the effect that Ortiz has on the collective mood of this city. Falling ceiling tiles in the Big Dig tunnel kind of fade into the background when Big Papi hits another walk-off hit. He's not only the MVP of baseball, but of all of New England.

Respect must be paid ...

30 If Henry had remained in the Yankees system, he would have surely been moved to the outfield (on pace for almost 40 errors this season). That, in itself, would have reduced his value as a prospect. However, Philly seems to want to keep him at SS...for the moment. Probably because they'd like to spin him off in the off-season to a team in need of SS prospects.

One more difference between Wilson and Phillips: Phillips hits up to his potential (sometimes) only when he is playing every day, while Wilson has been effective off the bench. If Shef returns as DH, or the Yanks make the World Series and have to play without a DH, Wilson will be that bat off the bench that we have not seen since the Davis/Strawberry days.

2--Hey Stormer. I don't mean to be sanctimonious and by no means am I singling you out, but I just had to say that I get very disturbed when human beings are referred to as trash or garbage, etc. It's one thing to criticize someone's performance, another to call them trash.

I understand the context and that it's a figure of speech and all of that, but still, that kind of rhetoric crosses a line, and quite frankly frightens me. These are, afterall, human beings we're talking about.

That's all. Sorry to swoop in like this and nag, but I just had to say something.

In other news, I finally return to the States on Thursday after a summer in Rome and can't wait to start watching the boys again. I'm very excited about the state of the team right now.

Onward!

34 I've seen him play a bunch this year. He has the raw ability to learn to play short. His bat is the problem. His swing is way too long right now to hit a good fastball.

27 Props, Sliced - that's another good one.

I wonder if you could get a Yankee jersey with a '$' instead of a number. That would be fitting for Cashman, wouldn't it?

What a fantastic GM. Even if these moves don't bring the Yanks to the promised land this year, I feel so much better about the future knowing that Cashman is in charge.

You have to give credit to Ortiz. The fans were screaming for it, his teammates were counting on him, heck, even the ESPN announcers were calling for it and he came to bat in another clutch situation... and delivered. He's done it in the regular season, he's done it in the postseason, he's even done it in the WBC. What's next, the whiffle ball tournament at the ESPN company picnic?

Overheard from Fausto Carmona after the game last night: "There comes a time when you just have to tip your hat to the guy and call him your Papi..."

One question, when are teams going to start walking him like they did Bonds a couple years ago?

How about a customized Cashman 06 jersey if the Yanks win it all this year?

seems like ESPN really had to stretch to get the message they wanted in this headline:

" Jeter cologne not for those who think Yanks stink"

When Dotel comes back, does Ponson get the boot? Is there anyone else to jettison besides him?

I accidentally counted Jeter twice in that second post. But it doesn't matter -- you can't have Bubba, Green and Beam on the same team, which is what Cliff said. Beam has already been sent down. Which means the bullpen is short -- Ponson gets mopup duty, Myers faces one man, and Proctor, Villone, Farnsworth and Mo have to do all the heavy lifting.

41 ESPN can DIAF.

Bama, the problem is that Manny, who is the better hitter, protects Ortiz; Bonds hasn't had that kind of protection (the 120 IBB came after Kent was gone). You could walk Ortiz last night, but that puts the winning run on base for Manny.

38 Hey that was me, not Sliced. I come up with something witty so rarely, I want credit :).

43 They only need to ride out the short bullpen until september call-ups. Anyway, how would additional pitchers matter the way Torre uses the BP anyway? Thekey in all of this might be Johnson. You know you're going to get 7 or 8 innings from #1 and #2. You pretty much know you're going to get 5 or maybe 6 innings from Lidle/Wright/Chacon/Small/Wilson/Ponson/Leiter/etc.

If Johnson gives 7+, the BP might be OK. If bad Johnson shows up--look out for the next week.

I turned off the Sox game when Ortiz came up. I just knew the home run was coming. I think we collectively moved into Bizzaro land during the 9th inning of the 2004 playoff in Boston, you know, some kind of alternate reality where everything is backwards. In reality, we're still chanting 1918. Anybody figured out how to get back there?

29 33 As JohnnyC pointed out in 32, it seems like Ortiz always comes through in the clutch, but he doesn't. I think there's a very good argument to be made that Ortiz is not only not the AL MVP, but that he's not even the most valuable Red Sock.

Here are the WARP1 and WARP3 numbers for some of the AL's best hitters (ordered by WARP3):

Sizemore: 6.2, 10.3
Jeter: 5.6, 9.6
Mauer: 5.9, 9.3
Dye: 5.6, 9.2
Tejada: 5.4, 9.0
Hafner: 5.4, 8.4
Ichiro!: 4.9, 8.3
Manny: 4.9, 7.9
Lowell: 4.6, 7.9
Big Papi: 5.0, 7.8

BTW, don't look at A-Rod's WARP1 and WARP3 numbers this year. He and Vlad Guerrero both have some ugly WARPs this year.

46 My bad, tommy - props to you for 27 and props to Sliced for 28. =)

Can't believe no one's commented about what our old friend Arthur Rhodes had to say about Cory Lidle:

"He is a scab," Rhodes said of Lidle, who according to Rhodes was a replacement player during the 1995 spring training lockout with the Brewers. "When he started, he would go 51/3 innings and (the bullpen) would have to win the game for him. The only thing Cory Lidle wants to do is fly around in his airplane and gamble.

"He doesn't have a work ethic. After every start, he didn't run or lift weights. He would sit in the clubhouse and eat ice cream."

http://tinyurl.com/jgmqq

45 I guess I had rather take my chances with Manny trying to drive Ortiz in from first than give Big Papi another shot to win the game with a walk off homer...

When it comes to Ortiz...all I can think of is The Terminator. This guy is the baseball version.

If I may paraphrase for a moment, "You still don't get it, do you? He comes through in the clutch. That's what he does. That's all he does! You can't stop him."

Unbelievable!

49 One other addition to that list:

Jonathan Papelbon: 6.6, 9.2

I didn't think about pitchers until just now . . .

54 One more:

The Great Rivera: 6.3, 9.0

49 I'm not sure if there is a fancy stat for this, but let me ask you a question: It's the bottom of the ninth and you need someone to hit a HR to win the game, who do you want up to bat?

49 I know its selective memory but it does seem like Ortiz comes through almost every time. I was meeting some friends so I stopped watching in the 8th, but I remember checking where they were in the lineup at the time and thinking, "I bet Ortiz hits a walkoff in the 9th."

I know all us SABR types think there's no such thing as clutch, but there must be some stat that supports Ortiz (much as I hate to admit it), no?

56 Miguel Cairo, the best bad hitter in baseball.

Shaun P, I hear ya, and up until last night, I made the same argument (though w/ VORP instead of WARP - Ortiz is 5th in the AL in VORP, just a fraction ahead of Manny). But it seems like every time I make that argument, Papi wins another game that the Sox should have lost. If I can't convince myself any more, who can I convince?

Ortiz is great. I actually like the guy even though he plays for the Sox.

That said, the "closer" was that only in name. The writing was on the wall from the get go.

56 Oh, Ortiz, no doubt. But how many times a year does a team find itself in that situation - 9th inning, homer wins you the game? 20 times, maybe 30 times at most?

I don't think we can define "most valuable" as "guy most likely to hit a homer in the 9th to win the game". Besides the relative scarcity of the situation, you're not in that situation without your teammates - the pitchers who put the team behind (with potential assists to any defenders who made errors), and the other hitters on the team who help make the homer matter.

Take last night. If Cora and Youkilis do what Loretta did - make outs - the game ends before Papi even gets to bat. If Wily Mo doesn't drive in 3 runs during the game - none of whom were Ortiz - Papi hits a home run that makes an 8-3 game an 8-6 game. And so on.

I'm not saying Big Papi isn't clutch, especially with the game on the line - he definitely is. I'm just saying that, despite all the fancy SportsCenter highlights that focus on Papi's 9th inning heroics, that maybe isn't the best way to define an MVP.

61 I think you and I are on the same page. I was not trying to make a case for Ortiz being the MVP (although he will probably win it). I was just trying to say that it is hard to measure how "clutch" he is. I agree with you that he could not do it without his teammates (which is my point that I would make them beat me and not Ortiz). Lastly, he will never be the MVP in my book until he starts taking the field as a position player on a regular basis. That said, the guy can flat out hit... Maybe we need a stat called TGCFOH (That Guy Can Flat Out Hit). The league leaders would be Ortiz, Jeter and Vlad...

57 I love how ESPN completely glossed over Wells' horrendous start last night. The reason they keep getting into these tailor-made Ortiz situations (and the reason Papelbon keeps getting saves) is because most of their pitching has failed to hold the line this season.

If they do give the award to Ortiz this season, it should still be the 'MVP' award, but MVP should renamed to stand for 'Most Valuable Pitcher-Bailer-Outer'.

Damn, I almost hope for Ortiz to be leading off the 9th in these types of games, because the most he might do is hit a solo shot. And if Manny happens to do the same thing, well then the game's only tied.

I agree with the Bonds approach - just walk the guy if there's any remote possibility he could win or tie the game with a HR.

61, you're right, and it pained me that ESPN essentially awarded the MVP to Tejada that year over A-Rod for the same reasons: Miguel had a rash of walk-off and other clutch hits in September as the A's rallied to a postseason berth. But there's more to Ortiz: in the last two games that he provided the winning hit, he also homered earlier in the game and was on-base most of the day. So, if at the end of the year, Hafner, Jeter, Mauer, Ortiz and Manny are all very close to each other in VORP, I'd have to think that the scales tip in his favor because of the heroics (ESPN be damned).

63 'Most Valuable Pitcher-Bailer-Outer' That's a good one Pete.

Jeter is 3rd in MLB in VORP. What if he also wins the batting title, we win the AL East, and the Sawx don't make the playoffs? Does Ortiz win the MVP then? Yes, and Jeter won't even be in the top 5 in voting, because most of the voters are morons.

51 Hopefully, after Rhodes' comments, Lidle knows that the Yankess will watching him carefully and this persuades him to change his lazy ways.

Ah darn, Kruk is the voice of reason on BBTN. How low it has sunk...

All this Big Papi love just makes remember more fondly the "Schilling returns as Closer" game in Fenway when A-Rod hit the winning home run and Mo came in to strike out the top of the Sox order for the save, with Big Papi being the last to fall to a shoulder high fastball.

Great moment.

And let's not forget the Papi strikeout to Farnsworth earlier this year in a key spot. Yeah, he's killed the Yankees, but I think the last series we had, he hit nothing while Manny was a one man Wrecking Crew (especially wrt Proctor).

That 5 game set w/ Boston is gonna be tense, eh?

66 At that point, who cares? Let him have the MVP, the batting title, the HR title and the freakin' Cy Young. If they stay home come October, that's worth it for me.

After seeing this lineup, Ponson suddenly realizes that he rather to be playing in October and for the Yankees than sitting in a bar in Pittsburg drinking.

Good news all the way through for all of us. Ponson can be better than Chacon, but can't be worse than him.

When Matsui comes back, it will definitely be a good problem to have.

Who else is super excited about today's game like I am? (To be more exact, I'm more excited about tomorrow when Wang pitches.)

Cash is really the Man.

70 You are right on. The ring definitely seems more worth it.

71 I am definitely excited to watch tonight's game, and hear some of the pregame talk. Must See TV tonight. The drive to the post season begins 7:05 tonight.

Flipping back and forth between the newschannels and ESPN the past couple hours, I'm not sure which word I'm hearing more, "clutch," or "Israel" but I'm fairly certain it's the former.

I sh*t you not, ESPN(Extra Special Papi Network) is showing that game-winnah at least 40 times per hour.

73 Amen.

74 I believe it. If A-Rod k's tonight, or God forbid makes an error, that's all they will show tomorrow.

Unless, of course, Big Papi strikes again.

Time for a major karma shift tonight. Let's Go Yankees!

74 Honestly, just don't watch. They really don't have much else to report on. Trade deadline over, no other sports really going on. I just turn away. It the best thing to do for your (or at least my)mental well being.

77 Steve Phillips declares technically, it's still open season for trades, and the Red Sox could still acquire Pujols, Zito, and Clemens before the final deadline.

Must... change... channel... but... too... weak... help...

OK, not to count my chickens before they hatch, but tonight is when our march toward the postseason starts. Again, the march in that direction, as I don't want to jinx it.

When we get Cano back...

78 that is so stupid. If Clemens ended up on the waiver line, me thinks he might be claimed!

78 Too funny. Man, I can't stand Steve Phillips. Don't you just get the feeling that Kruk and the others thing he's a total tool.

I'm gonna send a sexy mexican maid up to his room, maybe he'll miss his call time then.

78 He also said the White Sox will win the Wild Card even though they have horrible pitching. His entire arguement for that was so stupid, it made no sense for even him to tell it.

It's the Everyday Sox and Papi Network, silly - what else would you expect?

83 Whoops, didn't see Sliced Bread's joke - I kinda took it a step further, though.

81 A feeling?

Yesterday Ravetch said something like "You're just here to make Krukie look good" to Phillips. His tone said it was a joke, but the hate was in his eyes.

I need a tivo.

I too am looking forward to seeing the "new" Yankees in actiong, but realize that tonight's game has the potential to be a huge anti-climax. Cashman has done a great job with the trades, and we've acquired 3 potentially very useful players, but baseball is still a "one game at a time" endeavor. I hope of course we win tonight, but seeing Wright vs Burnett in the pitching line doesn't exactly fill me with confidence.

Win or lose, it's one game. I hope I can remember that tonight at 11pm!

Phillips really is incredibly stupid.

86 I've been thinking about that too. Wright isn't extactly the new-look Yanks putting their best foot forward.

Oh, the ESPN headlines if they lose.

88 Probably: Yankees postseason hopes dashed as Blue Jays dominate the Yankees.

If we win: A-Rod makes an out, Yankees survive tough game to beat Jays 16-2.

Russo just said Ortiz is Babe Ruth. Idiot.

57 My only gripe with clutch is that it overemphasizes a few exciting at-bats. Ortiz is the MVP because of 37 and 105. Of course he's the guy you want up if you need a HR. Either he or Pujols.

The guy you want up if you need a single might be Joe Mauer or maybe even Bobby Abreu.

Also, is a lefty pitcher on the mound?

Also, I seem to remember Giambino with a very high number of ninth-inning game-winning or game-tying HRs this year. I guess they're not technically "walk offs" if they occur on the road. I'll still take 'em.

So who comes in tonight in the 5th? Ponson?

86 88 yeah, I worry about that also. On the other hand, I look at the pitching matchup and see an opportunity to win a game that we shouldn't which puts us a LOT closer to the playoffs.

56 A good stat to measure "clutchness" is Win Probability Added (a.k.a. Win Expectency Added), which measures the effect each at-bat by a given hitter has on his team's chances of winning that game. You can read more on it here: http://tinyurl.com/camrp.

Using the example from that article:

"Bottom of the ninth, score tied, runner on first, no one out. The home team has a 71% chance of winning according to the Win Expectancy Finder (in this situation, the home team won 1,878 of 2,631 games between 1979 and 1990) [snip] Let's say our batter hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16"

Negative events (say a double play in the same situation) result in negative points. Win Probability Added (WPA) is the total of all of those positive and negative points over the course of the season.

As for Ortiz, from Jay Jaffe's latest: "Ortiz leads the AL in Win Expectancy Added with 4.15, well ahead of closest pursuers Jeter (3.40) and Dye (3.28)."

Ortiz also lead the leage by a wide margin last year, but overall WPA is not a predictive stat. That is, players numbers are generally not consistant from year to year the way OBP or SLG or K/9 or BB/9 are. It's more a side-effect of an otherwise strong or weak season.

91 If Wright makes it through four, the game probably isn't bad enough to justify Ponson. I hope to see Villone if Jaret goes through 4 or 5 and at least keeps the game within 2 runs either way.

Russo says if he can have one player to build his team around for the future, he picks Ortiz. Now, Ortiz is an incredible offensive player, but he can't play any position, he's 30, and he's incredibly obese. All that adds up to a DH who will fade in about 3 or 4 years, I don't know if I'm building by team around that. I'd say more of Pujols, since he's actually a good deffensive 1B, he's 25, he's a better hitter than Ortiz, and he's in great physical condition.

93 My god, there truly is a stat for everything.

95 Further proof that you, Ron Burgundy, are ten times the broadcaster that Mad Puppy Russo ever will be.

I still can't get over the clip of Cashmoney setting the Mad Puppy straight.

I was just listening to the interview with Cashman on WFAN site. I am more convinced Cashman is the man. How's he able to handle some of the NY media jerks like Russo, is beyond me.

Cash needs a number, so we can wear his jersey.

I'm hoping A-Rod makes it a non-issue as to who's pitching tonight. Same for Giambi. We seriously need those two to start hitting good and consistently instead of these once a week displays of immortality they give us. The reason our offense had trouble scoring was that while Jeter and Damon get on base, Giambi and A-Rod are generally completely unable to drive either of them in. I can't count how many times we had either Jeter or Damon on 2B with 1 out and Giambi and A-Rod strikeout out or pop-out.

99 I listened to that interview last night. Cashman was giving Russo the business right back...it was great.

93 I was going to say that Sabermetrics don't deny the existence of clutch. Clutch is a sampling of at-bats and, naturally, different samplings will produce different results, plus or minus. The dispute is whether or not clutch performance can be predicted in the future.

When I hear a player described as clutch, I usually just think of them as good. I think Bubba Crosby tied for the Yankee lead in walk-off HRs last year (one) and nobody would say they want Crosby up in the ninth if the Yankees need a HR. Or maybe you would, I don't know.

For me, the guy you want up in the ninth is the same guy you want up in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth.

This does not ignore the sheer joy and fun and greatnees of Ortiz's accomplishments. It just seems obvious to me that he wins lots of games for Boston in the first eight innings, too.

I think Cashman should wear the 00 jersey, ala Al Oliver back in the day.

Oh, and Jay's peice (click the Futility Infielder link on the sidebar under Bronx Bloggers) was on the AL MVP. His numbers have the Twins' dynamic duo of Liriano and Santana in the lead, followed by Papelbon and Sizemore, with Mauer, my mid-season pick, essentialy tied with Sizemore. Note the absense of big Papi (or, for that matter, Jeter).

104 How can Jeter not be on there? That makes no sense. Jeter is 3rd in VORP in the ML. He might win the Batting Title if Mauer continues to tire and slow down. He's also been (God, I hate this word) "clutch" and has been an OBP machine with 21SBs.

105 Because Jay used WARP and, if you notice, he only listed two position players because of the strong showing of pitchers. Jeter's clearly a worthy candidate. Myself, I'm tempted to call it a three-man race between Jeter, Mauer and Liriano, but that's without looking at any numbers.

I've calculated a slighly less scientific, somewhat cruder stat to measure "clutchness." I call it "Skidmark Probability Added" (a.k.a. Sh*t Your Shorts Expectency Added), which measures the effect each at-bat by a given hitter has on his team's chances of winning that game, and the effect said hitter has on the undershorts of the opposing pitcher, and those who are rooting for the pitcher to succeed.

By my fuzzy math, Ortiz leads the AL in Skidmark Probability Added with 99.99, well ahead of closest pursuers Jeter, and, oddly enough, Aaron Guiel.

106 I understand the pitchers in the race, but it really is hard to vote for pitchers for MVP.

Wow, I just listened to the Cashman interview, and boy is that man a Shmuck... does anyone actually listen to him?

108 The voters agree. A pitcher hasn't won the MVP in either league since Eckersley in 1992 when he got 15 first place votes and five hitters split the other 13.

Last pitcher to win the MVP in the NL was Bob Gibson in 1968.

109 Remember the scene in Howard Stern's "Private Parts"...?

'If they hate him, why do they still listen?'

...it probably goes something like that. I know if I feel the need to be aggravated on my drive home, I tune my dial to 660. ;-)

Russo's first true statement: "I am a phony." Took him long enough...

111 Yeah... I guess I can see something like that. How about Mike and Mike? I see them on ESPN, I actually like the both of them. Whats the response to them over there?

113 Mike and Mike are just a really easy listen, that's my only explanation - it's like hanging out with two buddies rapping about sports. I'll listen on my morning commute in between commercials for MLB homeplate or O&A on XM...

My only complaint about them is they seem to spend way too much time on football & basketball, even in their respective offseasons...

I still don't get it. Does ANYBODY in the media know what they are talking about? ANYONE?! I just for once would like someone to tell me that they're picking us to not make the playoffs because of actual numbers or trends that make sense and not their stupid gut feelings. We are in the dark ages of sports coverage.

107 Just you wait until Sheff comes back. I've lurked in enough other team's blogs to know that Sheff is a major source of skiddage for opposing teams and their fans, and Lord knows he's been nails for the yanks in those late-and-close situations in the past (notice the careful avoidance of the c-word for fear of some SABR induced beat down).

That is why I don't want Sheff elsewhere next year. I don't want any chance of Ortiz and Sheff being on the same team. My wife would stop doing laundry, for sure.

Eh, the great thing about baseball is that its played on the field. ESPN or whatnot can have their Sox lovefests and lead with every Ortiz HR. All that has to happen is for the Yankees to beat them on the field. The rest is just entertainment.

Lets not lose sight of what's happened these past few days. We have a much improved Yankees team that is currently 1 game out of the AL East and are tied for the WC lead.

102 You say: "For me, the guy you want up in the ninth is the same guy you want up in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth." I agree with that. If a guy can hit in the ninth then he can certainly hit earlier in the game. My point back in 56 was that the inverse of that is not always true. If a guy can hit early in the game, it is not always true that he can hit when the game is on the line. Some guys seem to fold when the pressure is on and other guys seem to thrive under pressure. Ortiz just seems to be one of those guys who seems to do well in those late inning pressure situations. I just did not have a fancy stat to prove it, thanks Cliff 93.

116

Damon - CF
Jeter - SS
Abreu - RF
A-Rod - 3B
Giambi - 1B
Sheff - DH
Matsui - LF
Posada - C
Cano - 2B

Look, I know Sheff is fierce, but he wasn't exactly lighting the league on fire before he went down, his OBP has been dropping like a rock, and he will be coming off a bad wrist injury when he comes back. Same for Matsui. We can't just drop them right into the top of the order.

116 Yeah, Sheff's Skidmark Probabilty Added is off the charts, right up there with Guiel. Kidding of course re: the Guiel comparison.

But no skiddage joke -- here's hoping tonight we don't re-live the last Jaret Wright vs AJ Burnett debacle less than 2 weeks ago.

Cliff will likely refresh our memories with the gory details later in his pregame, but it wasn't pretty.

Jaret didn't make it out of the third.

I wish Lidle was going tonight, and he's available, too. Why wait, Joe?

Best thing would be to get Lidle right out there, with the fired up Stadium behind him.

119 Guess I'm still living in the 2004 Sheff. He was indeed fierce - bum shoulder or not. 2005 Sheff wasn't mashed potatoes, and 2006 Sheff had a very slow start if I remember, but started to pick things up before he got hurt. Selective memory? Maybe.

Now that the doc has promised that he'll be back stronger than ever with his new bionic wrist, who knows what we'll get.

But boy oh boy, in 2004, Sheff was skiddage defined.

Geez - I seem to be one of those fans who lives in the past. That probably explains my Bernie crush. I watched the 1996 World Series MLB film last night, and the shot of Bernie hitting that homer from the left side almost brought tears to me eyes. The quick bat - the guns on the guy.

(slap!)

Ok. Better now. Back to present day. Sheff is a major unknown, but very high on my curiosity list.

119 Oh - and one more thing re: Skiddage and Sheff. The last thing on the pitcher's mind when Sheff is doing the menacing bat waggle and firing laser beam foul balls is "his obp is dropping like a rock". Probably the poor soul is thinking "Oh My God I pray he pops this up and doesn't kill anyone".

Skiddage isn't stat driven, as I'm sure Sliced will attest. It's about fear and hope, and 2006 Sheff still struck fear into opposing teams (or so it seemed) and provided plenty of hope for the home team. At least that's how I remember it.

I still want Sheff.

And that deadly calm that was Matsui, which really freaked out some other teams. I miss both those guys.

110 I still think Pedro in 1999 was more worthy than I-Rod of the MVP. Pedro had even me rooting for him during that game against the Yanks where he struck out 18 or 19, now I don't remember. Chili Davis' homerun was the only hit. I still think that game should be a Yankee classic.

According to Weather.com (Weather Channel) gametime temp in da Bronx will be 96 degrees, but it will feel like 105, probably even hotter with 55,000 in the house.

It will feel like 110 degrees in the space between lovebirds Sterling and Waldman.

Jayson Stark just said on WFAN that the Yankees can't match Schilling and Beckett. I want to murder him.

I already did a post regarding on another forum.
Moose > Shelling
Wang > Beaver
Is there anyone left out there who knows what he/she is talking about?

126 He's right, we don't have anyone HALF as obnoxious as those two...

126

or Moose > Wang > Shelling > Beaver

Beckett isn't even a frontline starter this year. He's dead average, in fact, and so combustible that he'll wind up with more twice as many HR as wins. And considering he may wind up with 20 wins because the Red Sox lineup always seems to prop him up, that's saying something.

Watch, come Sept., at least someone on ESPN will schill him for Cy Young, saying "He knows how to win ballgames."

CMW is my second starter any day.

124 Indeed, that MVP race should have been between Pedro and Jeter. Pedro actually got more first place votes than Pudge (8 to 7) but likely lost on the back end because he's a pitcher not a hitter and finished second. Jeter only got one and finished sixth. Stupid writers.

130 When the voters aren't sure who to vote for, they just close their eyes and pick one at random. Add to that the fact that most of them are morons who wouldn't know WARP, VORP, OPS, OPS+, or EqA if it hit them in the face, and you have stupid choices for awards.

128
Yes, Wang sticks it to Beaver every time.

131 I once got hit in the face by someone whose initials were O. P. S.

I knew him, so does that prove I'm not a moron?

If so, that's a relief.

129 Ha-ha, "...someone on ESPN will schill him for Cy Young...." Nicely put. I still find it hilarious that they all say Schilling is a Cy Young candidate and completely ignore the fact that Moose is having a much better year.

I don't live in NYC, so I don't listen to NYC radio, but I just listened to the Cashman interview. One word comes to mind to describe that Chris phukhead, well, OK, two words. Douchebag. You locals actually listen to this clown? OK, three words...

135 Usually, there's a guy named Mike Francessa (who's a Yankee fan and keeps Mad Dog in checK) on there who makes it a better show. But they're still both self-admiring assholes.

Seriously, a lot of writers, TV talking heads and "analysts" make Schilling and Beckett out to be the starting rotation 1-2 punch equivalent of Ortiz and Manny. Just not true.

I know everybody hates the Metrodome, but those people should watch a few Twins games to see a real 1-2 punch.

ESPN's First Report just showed Abreu arriving at the Stadium. I got irrationally excited. LOL! They are now playing Cash's smacking down if Russo. Of course, they follow up with Ortiz's walk off home run.

Okay, 'fess up how many of you will be buying Jeter's new cologne for men?

Abreu's batting 5th tonight.

139 bummer. I wanted him third. In any case, it will be interesting how this turns out. I'm excited!

139
Might be some protection for A-Rod.

And I don't use cologne, so I won't buy Jeter's (sorry, Derek)

I really don't get Abreu batting 5th. It's not terrible, but they picked him up for his OBP. Slot him in front of A-Rod and bounce Giambi to fifth to provide protection.

Do they expect him to set the table for Melky, Miggy and Philly?

138 Only in my engine room.

Anyone going to buy the Sal Fasano aftershave when it comes out?

144 ewww!

144 I'll put in on before I go make my collections or head out the Bada Bing.

142 In Joe Torre's world, it doesn't have to make sense.

The only logical line-up would've been:
1) Damon – CF
2) Jeter – SS
3) Abreu – RF
4) Rodríguez – 3B
5) Giambi – DH
6) Posada – C
7) Cano – 2B
8) Phillips(VS. Righties) or Wilson(VS. Lefties) – 1B
9) Cabrera – LF

But that's not how Torre rolls holmes.

147 My Bad, there I had Cano in.
Move up the number 8 and 9 guys in there and Cairo bats last.
1) Damon – CF
2) Jeter – SS
3) Abreu – RF
4) Rodríguez – 3B
5) Giambi – DH
6) Posada – C
7) Phillips(VS. Righties) or Wilson(VS. Lefties) – 1B
8) Cabrera – LF
9) Cairo - 2B

Oy vey. Did you catch the Chassticle soiling himself in the NY Times today?

I'll give you Murray's opening paragraph:

"Bobby Abreu is what other teams hate about the Yankees. Having a $200 million dollar payroll is obscene enough, but adding Abreu's contract two-thirds into the season is more than X-rated in the eyes of their brethren. Try XXX."

The Chassticle also takes a swipe at the "disgraceful" Phillies, for acting like a small-market team. I said here yesterday, "Is it the Yankees fault that the Phillies do business like a small-market team?" but I didn't use "disgraceful" to describe the hapless Phils. Were the Marlins "disgraceful" when they handed Beckett to the Red Sox?

Chassticle also presses the Beltran button again, you know, the one that goes "the Yankees may be kicking themselves for rejecting his [Beltran's] agent's offer to sign him for a discounted $100 million."

He's done this before. He criticizes the Yanks for having a high payroll at the top of his column, and then slams the team for not adding another 100 million to the books.

While he's having it both ways, Chass also holds Beltran up as an example of what the Yanks should hope Abreu doesn't turn out to be: "suffering the first-season complex that affects many high priced players when they change teams."

Ever hear of Johnny Damon, Chassticle?

144 146 Nice. A dab of garlic and olive oil drives the ladies nuts.

If they're going to insist on batting him fifth, he better find his HR power stroke. At the moment, Posada is a bigger threat in the 5-hole.

149 No way New York is tougher than Philadelphia. Not when NY fans are excited about a play-off race and ready to welcome a guy while Phillies fans are indifferently watching Eagles training camp.

Abreu has been carrying an ornery, disappointed city on his back for years. Yankee Stadium will be like a spa treatment.

140,142 & 147 It's good to be back in the mode of questioning the lineup order rather than who's in it. Like the good old days (beginning of the season, before the injuries) when the discussion was Damon or Jeter in the leadoff spot.

Is this a case of Torre being Torre?

152 It will also help him to play in front of a packed house. Having spent the last few years in Philly and gone to a few games, there is nothing like the electric atmosphere of Yankee Stadium there. It's usually a quarter empty, people sit around, occasionally watch the game and yell for the Eagles. The Bronx is a totally different animal, assuming he's ok with pressure from the fanbase he should have a lot more adrenaline pumping.

152 ?

153 I remember those days! Like, should A-Rod bat third or Sheff? Is it better to bat Cano ninth or move him up? sigh....those were the days.

156 Did I miss something, or did Chass suggest that Abreu would have a tough time, like Beltran, adjusting to New York?

154 Yes, yes it is. Perfect, Cashman gives him the perfect #3 OBP guy with speed and he puts him 5th. I hate Joe. Does he even realize that if he went Damon-Jeter-Abreu he would have two of the best OBP guys in baseball (both better than Giambi's OBP) batting 2-3 and he would have three speedsters 1-2-3? Probably Not.

156 Gotcha. Wasn't catching your drift. Yeah, good point in 152.

Check swing. 160 is response to 156. I better go eat something.

Damon, Jeter, Abreu.

OBP's of .367, .421 and .427, more than 60 stolen bases and a combined 80% clip between them ... They would never go quietly.

Torre's passing up the opportunity to have the best top order trio in the game.

154 True, but remember, it's Joe, his responsibilty (or so he thinks) is to give us the best possible chance of losing.

It's a little thing, but flipping Giambi and Abreu just makes SOOOOOOOOOOO much sense I can't believe even an idiot like Torre doesn't realize it.

161 Hey Sliced, take you a sniff of that Salvatore #5 from back in 150 that'll get you going...

Having Giambi behind him could be a huge boost to A-Rod. Jorgie's great, but he's so underappreciated that he never offered much protection batting fifth. And everybody's convinced Abreu has lost his stroke.

Giambi would be like having a bear behind A-Rod by comparison. Alex would see much better pitches.

Let's not get too worked up about where Abreu is batting. If it doesn't work as well as planned, I have a feeling there will be a change. If Alex starts to hit, and Abreu sets the table for the next guys, I don't think it's a big deal. If Alex struggles, give him Giambi as protection. Let's not forget that Jason is not getting on base that well right now, and he's really not having the same "quality" at-bats that he's had all year. Granted, he's still seeing 4-5 pitches an at-bat, but he's really struggling. If he snaps out of it, I can see moving him. If he doesn't, it's not really a big deal.

Also, I just listened to that clip of Cash. Who the hell does Russo think he is bad-mouthing all those guys? That's absurd. I'm surprised he didn't hang up on him. Jeez. That was really inconsiderate of him. "LIDLE STINKS!!" Get over yourself, please.

165 Wait, is that logic? You aren't allowed to enter the Yankee lineup...or the bullpen.

On second thought, that 167 was probably wrong. Joe, you get the benefit of the doubt. But I'm watching you.

Guys, its the batting order, which I believe Cliff did a great study of a while back showing that over the course of a whole season it made very little difference. Its also one night, there's nothing that says Joe can't move him around a bit if he wants in the next few days. Just having Abreu in the lineup is a much bigger deal than where he bats.

Looks like the last roster move was sending Beam back down to Columbus.

Hey, if Lidle can go past the 5th inning, maybe we don't really need 12 pitchers...

170 11 pitchers?! Are pigs flying up there?

Has anyone seen or heard tonight's full lineup? Which of Bernie/Wilson/Phillips is getting the start?

172 randym77 should be posting it any minute..

Tell you the truth, I'd bat Abreu 2nd and Jete 3rd.

Abreu's quick enough on the basepaths, plus Jete's slugging substantially better.

I trust Jeter to drive in Johnny Baseball and Abreu more than I trust Abreu to drive in Jete and Johnny.

172 LOL! I just posted it to the new game thread. :)

Bernie

124 I was at that game and I remembert thinking when Chile hit the home run early (I think it was the second inning)that we might get to Pedro. Unfortunately, I then witnessed the greatest pitching performance I have ever seen in person (better than Doc's no-no which I saw from an infield box and got soaked with beer from my buddies in the Loge section.) Omar did the better job getting Pedro instead of Sad-sack-over-the-hill Randy Johnson. He should have been MVP that year, definitely.