Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Sunday's acquisition of Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle for Matt Smith and three non-prospects filled the Yankees' two primary needs in one move for minimal cost. In fact, the move was such masterstroke that yesterday's follow-up trade of Shawn Chacon for the Pirates' Craig Wilson almost seemed like showing off.
To begin with, not only had Chacon been removed from the rotation after a disaster start in Cleveland on July 4, but with the acquisition of Lidle on Sunday, he had become a burden, a player occupying a spot on the 25-man roster who had no role to play and was unable to contribute to a winning effort when given an opportunity.
In exchange for this player, the Yankees obtained Wilson, a right handed first-baseman and outfielder with both patience and power at the plate who also has experience behind it. A career .268/.360/.486 hitter, Wilson is exactly the hitter I had hoped Andy Phillips would be at the plate given a proper opportunity. Unfortunately, Phillips hasn't quite lived up to expectations, hitting just .239/.272/.401 in 235 plate appearances. Enter Wilson, who is just four months Phillips' senior and has put up those numbers over 2,133 career major league plate appearances.
Yup, the Yankees have a new starting first baseman, or at least a player who can start every day and bounce between first, DH and the corner outfielders per the needs of the regulars in those other positions. If there's any down side to Wilson it's that he's a subpar defensive first baseman, but according to Baseball Prospectus's Rate stats, Andy Phillips has been just as bad this year despite what has looked to the naked eye like some excellent play around the first base bag. Of course, both are significantly better than Giambi (the exact numbers are a 93 Rate for Wilson and Phillips and an 83 Rate for Giambi). My theory on Phillips' figure is that he just might be the defensive equivalent of Derek Jeter at first base, a solid player who makes some spectacular-looking plays within a deceptively small range.
So, Wilson holds the line on defense and greatly increases the Yankees production on offense. Not a bad trick. The result is a line-up that could look like this upon the return of Robinson Cano:
L - Johnny Damon (CF)
R - Derek Jeter (SS)
L - Bobby Abreu (RF)
R - Alex Rodriguez (3B)
L - Jason Giambi (DH)
S - Jorge Posada (C)
R - Craig Wilson (1B)
L - Robinson Cano (2B)
S - Melky Cabrera (LF)
And that's without getting Matsui or Sheffield back.
All that's left do to now is to figure out who has to go to make room for the new guys. Brian Cashman can help out somewhat with that. Lidle replaces Ponson in the rotation, but according to Cashman, "Ponson wanted to stay and be a part of this, so he'll swing over to the bullpen," so ultimately Lidle replaces Chacon.
Meanwhile Aaron Guiel has already been optioned to Columbus to make room for Abreu and, again according to Cashman, "as we move forward, Andy Phillips is definitely a part of this team." Indeed, thanks to Andy's reverse split, he and Bernie Williams combine to give the Yankees complimentary pair of bats of the bench for deployment against lefties (Bernie: .327/.397/.505) and righties (Andy: .262/.292/.483) as well as back-ups at first base and the outfield, with Wilson also able to move into the corner outfield positions should Phillips replace him at first base.
That leaves Bubba Crosby and Nick Green as the candidates to be cut to make room for Wilson. Without Crosby, the Yankees wouldn't have a viable pinch-runner (Green is 5 for 11 career on the bases) or a reliable back-up centerfielder (Melky could move over to center, but he's not played there all year and his doing so would require an inferior defender to shift into left). Without Green, the Yankees would have to rely on Phillips as a back-up second baseman until Robinson Cano returns to complicate the issue, and would have to deploy Phillips at either second or third in order to use Miguel Cairo or Alex Rodriguez as the back-up shortstop. Meanwhile, here are the career and 2006 hitting numbers of the two players in question:
2006:
Crosby: .207/.258/.299 (96 PA)
Green: .183/.300/.300 (70 PA)
Career:
Crosby: .216/.255/.300 (269 PA)
Green: .248/.319/.358 (735 PA)
Green holds a small advantage on offense and, frankly, after seeing Melky play left so well this year (110 Rate), I'm less troubled by the idea of Melky backing up center than I am Andy backing up second, where he's played all of two innings in the majors. What's more, with Green hitting .381/.480/.714 as a Yankee, he's both the hot hand and the younger player (by two years). Then there's this:
2006:
Green: .183/.300/.300 (70 PA)
Cairo: .236/.271/.299 (204 PA)
Career:
Green: .248/.319/.358 (735 PA)
Cairo: .268/.315/.360 (3204 PA)
It's a pipe dream to think that the 27-year-old Green would ever keep his job over the 32-year-old Cairo when Cano returns, and Cairo breaks that tie at the plate with superior defense and vastly superior base running (base running that would make him a more than viable pinch-runner after Cano's return, making Crosby even more expendable), but I'm far more interested in seeing what more Green has to offer whereas I'm already under whelmed by what I know Bubba has.
And, yes, the Yankees could easily keep both Crosby and Green by demoting T.J. Beam, but that would only delay the choice a week or so until Cano's return. That said, there's one other pipe dream I've been having that would start with the Yankees keeping Green and Crosby and demoting Beam. You see, Craig Wilson caught 40 games as a member of the Pirates. The most recent was in 2004 and only half of those 40 games were starts. Still, I'd like to see the Yankees try Wilson out behind the plate a couple of times in the next two weeks with the hope of having Cano replace, not Green or Crosby, but Sal Fasano. Imagine the possibilities of a roster with this kind of flexibility behind the monstrous line-up posted above:
R - Wilson (1B/C/RF/LF)
R - Phillips (1B/3B/2B/PH v.L)
S - Williams (RF/LF/CF/PH v.R)
R - Cairo (2B/SS/3B/1B/OF/PR)
R - Green (2B/SS/3B/OF)
L - Crosby (CF/LF/RF/PR)
If Brian Cashman had a number I'd buy his jersey.
You have Green listed as an OF, is this true? If he's any good, that would definitely make Crosby seem more expendable.
Think about it:
Infielders: Giambi, Wilson, Andy, Jeter, Cairo, Green, Jeter, A-Rod. (8.)
Catchers: Posada and Fasano. (2.)
Outfielders: Abreu, Damon, Melky, Bubba, Bernie. (5.)
SP: Moose, Wang, RJ, Wright, Lidle. (5.)
RP: Mo, Farnsworth, Proctor, Villone, Myers, Ponson. (6.)
That's 26 players. Someone from this group has to go -- and stay gone, because they need a spot for Cano.
You might want to redo the math!
Also, Cairo is probably the most viable PR on the team.
Hoooo Weeeeee Conan!
I could not agree more. I feel like the guy running down Wall Street after just pulling off an insider job for millions and not getting caught. Brian Cashman deserves this most recent work to be properly praised and objectively weighed in the press and online. There can be no question that he pulled off the "deals" of the year, making by far the largest improvement to any team in all of Major League baseball. Further, unless Henry proves to be the second coming of Derek Jeter, Cashman accomplished everything with almost no real cost, other than an increased salary next year. How another team didn't make an offer superior to ours to the Phillies for Abreu and Lidle is beyond me. There are enough teams out there with the cash to pay a young 32 year old Abreu. I understand David Ortiz's reaction completely. What he really meant was "we couldn't put together 4 better guys than that?" I didn't believe the PR spun monologue spewed by Theo Epstien today. That team doesn't have a sngle position player on the MLB club from their minor league system. What kind of long term plan do they have over there all of a sudden?
Grabbing Craig Wilson this afternoon for what was basically our household trash, was exactly as you put it "showing off."
If it were my choice, I would jettison Beam. If given the choice between Green or Bubba, and there only real role would be as a late inning pinch runner and/or sporatic defense, "or two Jeters of course," I go with Bubba. He is the best pinch runner we have-- and that might come in handy--and I don't think we lose much, if anything, by keeping him. There seems to be love-fest for Andy Phillips throughout the Front Office and with Joe, and that is a little befuddling, but I'm not complaining about anything today. Well, I do wish I hadn't sat through the entire Red Sox game today, ugh.
I think tomorrow should be "Brian Cashman Day" at the Stadium. They should parade him out there on a golf cart and give him a curtain call. No one should say he didn't do his job this year, big money team or no money team, he done good. Get Big Stein a Calzone, he's happy today.
Playing the game itself should let you realize it's not just about the speed when u steal, it's about the read and jump... in that aspect, Miguel Cario (aka, Tony Womack at 1/3 the cost) is good.
Though they's still have to punt someone when Cano comes back.
I think if it was up to me, I'd send Beam back to Columbus. "Bat Boy" maybe have a bright future ahead of him, but right now, there's no lead I trust him to hold. I can't imagine putting him on the mound unless the rest of the bullpen was unexpectedly kidnapped by aliens.
The Star-Ledger reports that Bubba's spot is safe, but I wonder if they really meant Andy.
In any case, with Cano, Dotel, and Matsui all possibly returning before rosters expand, Bubba, Andy, and Nick will be playing for their jobs.
There is no guarantee that the Yankees will make the playoffs, but Cashman deserves an A++ for these trades. The Yankees are definitely a better team than they were before and their odds of making the playoffs have increased significantly.
Even if nobody is rockin' his jersey tonight, $!man has to be included in the right field 'roll call.' Got that, bleacher creatures?
But as shrewd as $!man is on the baseball business front, why would Mr. Upgrade shlep down into the city sewer system on one of the hottest days of the year (certainly his hottest) and subject himself to a "confrontation" with that rat bastid Mad Dog? Even if it was only for laughs, how could Cash stand the stench of Russo's rancid radio breath down there?
Clearly, $!man has a stronger stomach than most, to go with his titanium testicles and coolhand trigger finger.
The Cliffman delivereth, too. Excellent job once again.
Mad funny, Cliff.
Yup - you called it, Cliff. A Cashman jersey would look nice today, and I'll echo the rest of the crew in their praise of today's piece.
The Indians haven't been jobbed like that since they sold Manhattan for beads. (rimshot)
Lame jokes aside, I hope the new Yankees are ready for what they're in for. It's shaping up to be a pennant race for the ages, starting with a crucial AL East battle tonight.
308 comments on the Bronx Banter board last night (some really funny ones too) chewing over the trades, and what appeared to be a Red Sox loss. The Banterers are ready to roll.
Think Abreu, Lidle, and Wilson are in for a little baseball culture shock when they step into the Stadium tonight?
If managers and pitchers refuse to issue Ortiz an intentional walk, the best defense I can come up with is a radical new-fangled Papi Shift.
You position your third baseman, shortstop, second baseman, first baseman, left fielder, center fielder, right fielder, and even your catcher approximately four feet in front of the plate. On the pitch, have them rush the plate, arms up, attempting to block that kick.
There is no other solution.
Guy starts in the endzone with the ball, while the rest line up at the 20 yard line.
Hike! and you're off to the races, trying to blast toward the weakest link in the fence rushing toward you.
99.9% of the time you got gang tackled.
That's pitching to Ortiz. The Running Game.
We can only hope that Ortiz gets his heroics out of his system this week before the Yanks go to Boston.
It's hard to describe the effect that Ortiz has on the collective mood of this city. Falling ceiling tiles in the Big Dig tunnel kind of fade into the background when Big Papi hits another walk-off hit. He's not only the MVP of baseball, but of all of New England.
Respect must be paid ...
I understand the context and that it's a figure of speech and all of that, but still, that kind of rhetoric crosses a line, and quite frankly frightens me. These are, afterall, human beings we're talking about.
That's all. Sorry to swoop in like this and nag, but I just had to say something.
In other news, I finally return to the States on Thursday after a summer in Rome and can't wait to start watching the boys again. I'm very excited about the state of the team right now.
Onward!
I wonder if you could get a Yankee jersey with a '$' instead of a number. That would be fitting for Cashman, wouldn't it?
What a fantastic GM. Even if these moves don't bring the Yanks to the promised land this year, I feel so much better about the future knowing that Cashman is in charge.
Overheard from Fausto Carmona after the game last night: "There comes a time when you just have to tip your hat to the guy and call him your Papi..."
One question, when are teams going to start walking him like they did Bonds a couple years ago?
" Jeter cologne not for those who think Yanks stink"
If Johnson gives 7+, the BP might be OK. If bad Johnson shows up--look out for the next week.
Here are the WARP1 and WARP3 numbers for some of the AL's best hitters (ordered by WARP3):
Sizemore: 6.2, 10.3
Jeter: 5.6, 9.6
Mauer: 5.9, 9.3
Dye: 5.6, 9.2
Tejada: 5.4, 9.0
Hafner: 5.4, 8.4
Ichiro!: 4.9, 8.3
Manny: 4.9, 7.9
Lowell: 4.6, 7.9
Big Papi: 5.0, 7.8
BTW, don't look at A-Rod's WARP1 and WARP3 numbers this year. He and Vlad Guerrero both have some ugly WARPs this year.
"He is a scab," Rhodes said of Lidle, who according to Rhodes was a replacement player during the 1995 spring training lockout with the Brewers. "When he started, he would go 51/3 innings and (the bullpen) would have to win the game for him. The only thing Cory Lidle wants to do is fly around in his airplane and gamble.
"He doesn't have a work ethic. After every start, he didn't run or lift weights. He would sit in the clubhouse and eat ice cream."
http://tinyurl.com/jgmqq
If I may paraphrase for a moment, "You still don't get it, do you? He comes through in the clutch. That's what he does. That's all he does! You can't stop him."
Unbelievable!
Jonathan Papelbon: 6.6, 9.2
I didn't think about pitchers until just now . . .
The Great Rivera: 6.3, 9.0
I know all us SABR types think there's no such thing as clutch, but there must be some stat that supports Ortiz (much as I hate to admit it), no?
That said, the "closer" was that only in name. The writing was on the wall from the get go.
I don't think we can define "most valuable" as "guy most likely to hit a homer in the 9th to win the game". Besides the relative scarcity of the situation, you're not in that situation without your teammates - the pitchers who put the team behind (with potential assists to any defenders who made errors), and the other hitters on the team who help make the homer matter.
Take last night. If Cora and Youkilis do what Loretta did - make outs - the game ends before Papi even gets to bat. If Wily Mo doesn't drive in 3 runs during the game - none of whom were Ortiz - Papi hits a home run that makes an 8-3 game an 8-6 game. And so on.
I'm not saying Big Papi isn't clutch, especially with the game on the line - he definitely is. I'm just saying that, despite all the fancy SportsCenter highlights that focus on Papi's 9th inning heroics, that maybe isn't the best way to define an MVP.
If they do give the award to Ortiz this season, it should still be the 'MVP' award, but MVP should renamed to stand for 'Most Valuable Pitcher-Bailer-Outer'.
Damn, I almost hope for Ortiz to be leading off the 9th in these types of games, because the most he might do is hit a solo shot. And if Manny happens to do the same thing, well then the game's only tied.
I agree with the Bonds approach - just walk the guy if there's any remote possibility he could win or tie the game with a HR.
Great moment.
And let's not forget the Papi strikeout to Farnsworth earlier this year in a key spot. Yeah, he's killed the Yankees, but I think the last series we had, he hit nothing while Manny was a one man Wrecking Crew (especially wrt Proctor).
That 5 game set w/ Boston is gonna be tense, eh?
Good news all the way through for all of us. Ponson can be better than Chacon, but can't be worse than him.
When Matsui comes back, it will definitely be a good problem to have.
Who else is super excited about today's game like I am? (To be more exact, I'm more excited about tomorrow when Wang pitches.)
Cash is really the Man.
I sh*t you not, ESPN(Extra Special Papi Network) is showing that game-winnah at least 40 times per hour.
Unless, of course, Big Papi strikes again.
Time for a major karma shift tonight. Let's Go Yankees!
Must... change... channel... but... too... weak... help...
When we get Cano back...
I'm gonna send a sexy mexican maid up to his room, maybe he'll miss his call time then.
Yesterday Ravetch said something like "You're just here to make Krukie look good" to Phillips. His tone said it was a joke, but the hate was in his eyes.
I need a tivo.
Win or lose, it's one game. I hope I can remember that tonight at 11pm!
Oh, the ESPN headlines if they lose.
If we win: A-Rod makes an out, Yankees survive tough game to beat Jays 16-2.
Russo just said Ortiz is Babe Ruth. Idiot.
The guy you want up if you need a single might be Joe Mauer or maybe even Bobby Abreu.
Also, is a lefty pitcher on the mound?
Also, I seem to remember Giambino with a very high number of ninth-inning game-winning or game-tying HRs this year. I guess they're not technically "walk offs" if they occur on the road. I'll still take 'em.
Using the example from that article:
"Bottom of the ninth, score tied, runner on first, no one out. The home team has a 71% chance of winning according to the Win Expectancy Finder (in this situation, the home team won 1,878 of 2,631 games between 1979 and 1990) [snip] Let's say our batter hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16"
Negative events (say a double play in the same situation) result in negative points. Win Probability Added (WPA) is the total of all of those positive and negative points over the course of the season.
As for Ortiz, from Jay Jaffe's latest: "Ortiz leads the AL in Win Expectancy Added with 4.15, well ahead of closest pursuers Jeter (3.40) and Dye (3.28)."
Ortiz also lead the leage by a wide margin last year, but overall WPA is not a predictive stat. That is, players numbers are generally not consistant from year to year the way OBP or SLG or K/9 or BB/9 are. It's more a side-effect of an otherwise strong or weak season.
I still can't get over the clip of Cashmoney setting the Mad Puppy straight.
Cash needs a number, so we can wear his jersey.
When I hear a player described as clutch, I usually just think of them as good. I think Bubba Crosby tied for the Yankee lead in walk-off HRs last year (one) and nobody would say they want Crosby up in the ninth if the Yankees need a HR. Or maybe you would, I don't know.
For me, the guy you want up in the ninth is the same guy you want up in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth.
This does not ignore the sheer joy and fun and greatnees of Ortiz's accomplishments. It just seems obvious to me that he wins lots of games for Boston in the first eight innings, too.
By my fuzzy math, Ortiz leads the AL in Skidmark Probability Added with 99.99, well ahead of closest pursuers Jeter, and, oddly enough, Aaron Guiel.
Last pitcher to win the MVP in the NL was Bob Gibson in 1968.
'If they hate him, why do they still listen?'
...it probably goes something like that. I know if I feel the need to be aggravated on my drive home, I tune my dial to 660. ;-)
My only complaint about them is they seem to spend way too much time on football & basketball, even in their respective offseasons...
That is why I don't want Sheff elsewhere next year. I don't want any chance of Ortiz and Sheff being on the same team. My wife would stop doing laundry, for sure.
Lets not lose sight of what's happened these past few days. We have a much improved Yankees team that is currently 1 game out of the AL East and are tied for the WC lead.
Damon - CF
Jeter - SS
Abreu - RF
A-Rod - 3B
Giambi - 1B
Sheff - DH
Matsui - LF
Posada - C
Cano - 2B
Look, I know Sheff is fierce, but he wasn't exactly lighting the league on fire before he went down, his OBP has been dropping like a rock, and he will be coming off a bad wrist injury when he comes back. Same for Matsui. We can't just drop them right into the top of the order.
But no skiddage joke -- here's hoping tonight we don't re-live the last Jaret Wright vs AJ Burnett debacle less than 2 weeks ago.
Cliff will likely refresh our memories with the gory details later in his pregame, but it wasn't pretty.
Jaret didn't make it out of the third.
I wish Lidle was going tonight, and he's available, too. Why wait, Joe?
Now that the doc has promised that he'll be back stronger than ever with his new bionic wrist, who knows what we'll get.
But boy oh boy, in 2004, Sheff was skiddage defined.
Geez - I seem to be one of those fans who lives in the past. That probably explains my Bernie crush. I watched the 1996 World Series MLB film last night, and the shot of Bernie hitting that homer from the left side almost brought tears to me eyes. The quick bat - the guns on the guy.
(slap!)
Ok. Better now. Back to present day. Sheff is a major unknown, but very high on my curiosity list.
Skiddage isn't stat driven, as I'm sure Sliced will attest. It's about fear and hope, and 2006 Sheff still struck fear into opposing teams (or so it seemed) and provided plenty of hope for the home team. At least that's how I remember it.
I still want Sheff.
And that deadly calm that was Matsui, which really freaked out some other teams. I miss both those guys.
It will feel like 110 degrees in the space between lovebirds Sterling and Waldman.
I already did a post regarding on another forum.
Moose > Shelling
Wang > Beaver
Is there anyone left out there who knows what he/she is talking about?
or Moose > Wang > Shelling > Beaver
Watch, come Sept., at least someone on ESPN will schill him for Cy Young, saying "He knows how to win ballgames."
CMW is my second starter any day.
Yes, Wang sticks it to Beaver every time.
I knew him, so does that prove I'm not a moron?
If so, that's a relief.
I know everybody hates the Metrodome, but those people should watch a few Twins games to see a real 1-2 punch.
Okay, 'fess up how many of you will be buying Jeter's new cologne for men?
Might be some protection for A-Rod.
And I don't use cologne, so I won't buy Jeter's (sorry, Derek)
Do they expect him to set the table for Melky, Miggy and Philly?
The only logical line-up would've been:
1) Damon CF
2) Jeter SS
3) Abreu RF
4) Rodríguez 3B
5) Giambi DH
6) Posada C
7) Cano 2B
8) Phillips(VS. Righties) or Wilson(VS. Lefties) 1B
9) Cabrera LF
But that's not how Torre rolls holmes.
Move up the number 8 and 9 guys in there and Cairo bats last.
1) Damon CF
2) Jeter SS
3) Abreu RF
4) Rodríguez 3B
5) Giambi DH
6) Posada C
7) Phillips(VS. Righties) or Wilson(VS. Lefties) 1B
8) Cabrera LF
9) Cairo - 2B
I'll give you Murray's opening paragraph:
"Bobby Abreu is what other teams hate about the Yankees. Having a $200 million dollar payroll is obscene enough, but adding Abreu's contract two-thirds into the season is more than X-rated in the eyes of their brethren. Try XXX."
The Chassticle also takes a swipe at the "disgraceful" Phillies, for acting like a small-market team. I said here yesterday, "Is it the Yankees fault that the Phillies do business like a small-market team?" but I didn't use "disgraceful" to describe the hapless Phils. Were the Marlins "disgraceful" when they handed Beckett to the Red Sox?
Chassticle also presses the Beltran button again, you know, the one that goes "the Yankees may be kicking themselves for rejecting his [Beltran's] agent's offer to sign him for a discounted $100 million."
He's done this before. He criticizes the Yanks for having a high payroll at the top of his column, and then slams the team for not adding another 100 million to the books.
While he's having it both ways, Chass also holds Beltran up as an example of what the Yanks should hope Abreu doesn't turn out to be: "suffering the first-season complex that affects many high priced players when they change teams."
Ever hear of Johnny Damon, Chassticle?
Abreu has been carrying an ornery, disappointed city on his back for years. Yankee Stadium will be like a spa treatment.
OBP's of .367, .421 and .427, more than 60 stolen bases and a combined 80% clip between them ... They would never go quietly.
Torre's passing up the opportunity to have the best top order trio in the game.
It's a little thing, but flipping Giambi and Abreu just makes SOOOOOOOOOOO much sense I can't believe even an idiot like Torre doesn't realize it.
Giambi would be like having a bear behind A-Rod by comparison. Alex would see much better pitches.
Also, I just listened to that clip of Cash. Who the hell does Russo think he is bad-mouthing all those guys? That's absurd. I'm surprised he didn't hang up on him. Jeez. That was really inconsiderate of him. "LIDLE STINKS!!" Get over yourself, please.
Hey, if Lidle can go past the 5th inning, maybe we don't really need 12 pitchers...
Abreu's quick enough on the basepaths, plus Jete's slugging substantially better.
I trust Jeter to drive in Johnny Baseball and Abreu more than I trust Abreu to drive in Jete and Johnny.
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