Just dunno. The Yankees always look like Dead Men Walking when they are losing, but man this feels like a real funk. They win two, lose two, win three, lose three.

I remember all the talk last year early on about "this is how a .500 ballclub plays", and it turned out to be just a bunch of nonsense, so I'm gonna chill.

But man. I'm starting to feel emotionally detached from the games, which is more scary than an Igawa start.

Team chemistry is, and always will be, a myth. You know what gets a team to show enthusiasm and camaraderie? Winning. It's winning that creates this "chemistry," yet somehow everyone has seemed to have gotten the order mixed up.

If the Yankees were six games over .500 everyone would look at the fist pumps and the Melky/Cano dance moves and the Shelley Duncan forearm smashes and call it chemistry. Now, those things are lost among fans' desire to focus on the negative because the team is losing.

Smiling more isn't going to prevent Bobby Abreu from hitting into inning-ending double plays...

Maybe it's just me, but I get the sense that the hitters aren't going up there with a plan, a "work the count" mentality. Now I'm sure they do, they are experienced professional players, but they just don't look like it. And yes, there is currently significant downgrades at third and catcher, but the rest of the team needs to step up. E.g., Jason, take a few hacks the other way, please, you aren't hitting the homeruns to make up for all the groundouts into the shift.

I'm not saying we should "give up on the season", but at what point do you have to start thinking about trading guys like Matsui, Damon, Abreu, (plus, if anyone wanted them, Shelly, Ensberg, Giambi, etc) for almost-ML ready prospects? Take a step back to take a step forward. And I say this not because Matsui or Damon or Abreu are stinking up the joint (though Abreu isn't exactly lighting it up), but because they still have value, but won't for long. Sure, the farm system is good, but it's not THAT good, and most of the talent is still quite a ways off from being able to contribute. Jesus Montero and AJax and Tabata and even maybe Hughes/IPK/Joba are not going to step into the breach now/next year and be all stars. Maybe we really got spoiled with Cano and Wang (and even Melky) who stepped right in and were good to great, exceeding expectations.

Maybe this retooling on the fly, trying to compete while rebuilding, really isn't possible.

maybe they entered the season a bit tired from the work they did in spring training? ever have that post workout syndrome where you're more tired when you work out than when you dont?

For all the talk about how bad the Yanks are, and how much better the Sox are, the Yanks are STILL only 4 games behind the Sox. Sure, the Sox probably have more promise and hope of pulling away, but it's still early and you really don't know what can happen the rest of the way. Rasner may continue his improbable performance, Kennedy may come back better, Moose may continue to buck the trends, etc. Doesn't bode well for a playoff run, but I still think it's too early to give up. They were 10 games back at some points last season and still made it close at the end. Was there any paper evidence to show that last year's team should have been so much better than this year's team? I don't think so. Consider some of the slop that pitched games last year. Karstens, Chase Wright, Igawa, Pavano, Clemens, etc. I understand you had some out of this world performances by Posada & ARod, but no reason the Yanks couldn't turn this around. The Sox bullpen doesn't seem as strong as the Yanks', so there's some hope there as well.

The other good thing is, there don't seem to be many close games. If the Yanks are getting blown out in the 5th, at least you still have time in the evening to turn off and watch/do something else.

4 The problem with that strategy is, what team is going to take on Damon/Matsui/Abreu, and give the Yanks almost-ML-ready prospects in return?

The teams with good, ML-ready hitting prospects (Oakland, Tampa Bay, the Dodgers, the Reds, the Angels) either can't or won't pay the cash to take on the contract, or they need those kids to compete, if not this year, then next year.

The one team in "win-now" mode, with cash to spare, that could use another veteran bat, is the Mets . . . but they have no-MLB-ready hitting prospects.

For better or for worse, the Yanks are stuck with the offense they've got. So I hope it gets going soon . . .

How long until the Yanks play Texas?

What is really missing from the Yanks is that top hitter in the prime age around 25-27. In many ways that is why Robbie is so important - if he can blossom into that hitter it will be huge - if not, well not so good.
And teams are locking this player up so early now - last year the Jays were able to wait a bit on Rios but with the Marlins and Rays locking up Hanley and Longoria so early, that is going to be a trend for a while until a few signings turn out to be busts - so the Yanks are not going to be able to count on getting this player through fa - it is going to have to be development or getting lucky with a trade or a reclamation project.

Hopefully Andy regains his golden god (citation weeping f.b.) status soon.

Shaun is right, and I think it is an 'of course' ... the Yankees would be idiots and GMs on the other side would be idiots to think 'dump trade' at this point, 4 games out, mid-May. I find the suggestion yet another example of what goes on too much in Yankeeland ... either panic, the boat is sinking OR huge impatience. The team made an executive decision to sit on the kids (including Melky) and not go for a 5-6 year expensive ace in trade. We have aging players with expiring contracts. For most teams (and fans) this would be a rebuilding year, seeking to take pleasure and interest in watching to see if and how the kids mature. Indeed, in a month or two it may be clear that that is what this IS. But not yet. We even have the luxury, with a rich club, of speculating on acquisitions (Teixeira, Sabathia...). We also have, thanks to Cash and Co., a GOOD minor league system for the first time in awhile.

And we are 4 games out (repeat as required) with our two best hitters down for an extensive period and our two kid starters injured and a mess (though coming back pretty fast this week!).

Glass is half-full guys. Say 'ommmm' a few times.

4 For me, that decision will be made baded on Arod. I simply wont believe his return is inevitable until he is back on the field performing well. Tulowitzski is missing three months with a quad, so I am crossing my fingers. If Arod isn't back in the next 2 weeks or so, I would start looking at a rebuild. With Arod, the team is good enough to compete (although really no better than a group of contenders). Without him, they are a .500 team.

6 I wish I could flip the channel so easily...it wouldn't bother me as much to see them playing so poorly.

"At least Chien Ming Wang is pitching tonight."
That makes tonight even more pivotal. Seeing the Yanks lose with the Wanger on the mound would be a double kidney-shot. And one last comparison to this series. Dad (the Yankees) can no longer beat his son (Ray) one on one in basketball because his knees (A-Rod and Posada) are shot. But will dad make a comeback after the operation (return from the D.L. of course). Snap out of it fellas. Let's go.

4 I don't look to punt the season until the end of August, but there are too many factors involved. Trades I'd consider everyday but it goes without saying that they have to make sense.

4 games back in May is hardly an insurmountable lead.

Retooling on the fly is possible; the Yanks & Braves have done it.

Would someone please excuse my laziness and tell me the furthest games out of 1st the Yanks were last year, and on what date that occurred?

Trying to put .500, 4 out, in mid-May into perspective.

I know we were a lot worse a lot later, just trying to assess apples to apples.

That said, I still think we should trade Mussina now. I still think his recent performance is a false positive, that the league will catch up, that he'll be way worse than league average for all of the 2nd half of the season, and that his value will never be higher than it is now.

10 I was hoping you'd reply, and you're probably right about the season hinging on ARod so much more than the others.

7 I don't know the answers, but if the Dodgers need just a bit more to get over the hump, I can see them wanting some of our old OFers, maybe Seattle. I would assume the Yanks would eat the entire contract, or something like it. Maybe the Indians, or Tigers, though dealing to the WC rivals might not be in the offing. It seems like a fair number of teams need help in the corners. Maybe Damon to the Cubs, call him a CFer?

9 You're kind of missing my point. While my conclusion might be similar to the unwashed masses calling in to MATMD my question is not based on this year alone. I agree with William 10 that if ARod comes back strong & soon, and the kidlings settle down (I think they will), we're a contender. But what about next year? I just see a lot of mediocrity on the team, and very little impact talent on the verge (but plenty lower down) and there's not one glaring hole that can be plugged with an Abreu this season. Maybe adding lower level prospects to trades of the vets gets you blue chippers.

1B: we're getting averageish performance, and it isn't going to get much better
2B: Cano is killing us now, but he shouldn't go anywhere! Superstar for sure, but the awful start is going to drop him to just above-average.
3B: no upgrading here, superstar, but the injury hurts
SS: offense plus defense, a merely averagish performance seems to be totally possible from this slot
LF: Damon should be an average LF
CF: Melky should be better than average, but probably not quite star level
RF: Boby should be average RF
C: Another superstar, but factor in the injury and we're getting average output from this slot.

That's a whole lot of average.

The bench should be better than it has been, but with the injuries at key positions, they're getting exposed. The pitching is probably going to be better this year than last, but even then you can't expect much more than average in total. And again, it's not that you have a good top of the rotation and poor back end, where plugging Joba in would really turn the tide. After Wang, it's a lot of league average at best. Wouldn't we all be happy with league average from Moose, Pettitte, Rasner and Kennedy? The BP might continue being a strength, but moving Joba to the rotation while losing Bruney & Alby takes a lot out of the depth. It's not at all unlikely that we could be back to Mo + ragamuffins post ASB.

That a whole lot more average.

I think William says it best, "Without [AROD], they are a .500 team." So if that's the case, why not start the rebuilding before it's too late. The problem is the old guys, not the kids!

'Flatter than George Carlin's ass' is the funniest thing I've heard in days.

Wow, a lot of doom and gloom for a tuesday morning here. I'm not quite in a panic yet. I said a few weeks ago if they can tread water without A-Rod and Posada I'd be happy.

I hope all the fans who boo A-Rod realize now what this team is like without him. Don't love the guy personally, but we sure could use his bat and fielding in the lineup.

Guys, we're playing shitty, but we're only 4 back. A solid win streak and we're right in it.

13 Without looking it up: they were 14 out (maybe 14 1/2?) in early July. So, yeah, four out in May is like Big Brown measuring his attack on the outside from four lengths back as they round the first turn...
I hope.

For what it's worth from me, I'd be looking to trade away a lot of those guys ASAP. Great organizations know when to get rid of aging veterans before their decline shows. Unfortunately, all these guys are showing their declines now although I'd argue with the persons dissing Abreau. He's still got the whole package in right field. Unfortunately, without Arod and Posada behind him in the lineup he's not seeing the pitches he's used to seeing. Giambi's been a bust for a long time, Damon was already over the hill when we got him and Matsui's injuries and age are taking their toll. Signing Posado to 4 years wasn't too bright either despite coming off his career year unless the plan is to move him to first base (that's got to be the reasoning, right?). Once the decision was made to go with IPK,Hughes and Chamberlin, the same must be done in the field, also, so offense, defense and batting can peak in the same years.

18 I disagree almost entirely.
Giambi is in bad shape, but not 'for a long time' (he raked in '05 and in '06). Damon has had one good year for us, one bad year, and this year he's looking good. Signing Posada, I believe, was absolutely mandatory. Yes, he's on the DL, but with Posada's record anybody who claims to have predicted that is lying. And Abreu is right about where he was last year, so the lack of protection has probably had no effect at all.

These guys are still really good hitters (possibly excepting Giambi). They are overpriced. So what? That's how the Yankees will re-tool without suffering a crappy season: by overpaying vets while they incubate their future stars.

Yes, he's on the DL, but with Posada's record anybody who claims to have predicted that is lying.
-------------
I believe the same should apply to Rodriguez, and is why he got the benefit of the doubt when he said his leg was ok.

14 Giambi's OPS+ is 120, that's better than average, it's a weird ass line, but he's been way better than his BA might lead one to believe.

20 I figure that goes without saying. I'm assuming A-Rod's DL stint will be relatively short. And if you don't count his record, Jorge might have looked like a real injury risk (aging catcher). And if he doesn't spend a lot more time on the DL, then four years looks like a great contract to me -- if, say, he declines slowly from last season, it will be a steal.

18 Your analysis is off base. Giambi, Matsui and Damon along with Cabrera and Abreu have been the productive Yankees so far this year. Matsui is absolutely the best hitter on the team at this point.

21 But it's weak for his position.

19 I agree the strategy has (correctly) been, "overpaying vets while they incubate their future stars." but I'm wondering if we're not going to suffer a "gap year", where the impact talent is too far behind the stopgaps, or much worse there is not enough future stars in the system anyhow. Where is this impact talent that's going to be ready to step in next year, or the year after? It just all seems somewhat far off, and a middle path, where we dump some vets to get back into dominance quicker, might be worthwhile.

It's entirely possible that after the ASB, Joba is in the rotation & awesome, Phil comes back and is awesome, Po comes back and is awesome, IPK settles down and is good, ARod comes back soon and is awesome, Cano turns it on (might be happening now), but Matsui is going to fall back to earth, Damon and Bobby are going to be average for their positions, Jeter might be also... I just don't want to be the Mets or Bonds-era (Arod ~=Bonds) Giants.

21 Average for his position, offense plus defense. He might have the screwiest line in baseball right now!

i agree with where you are coming from with your overall assessment - ny2ca2dc in 14 and 25
- assuming arod comes back fairly soon and gives the yanks plus production and the rotation stabilizes a bit - the yanks are very much among the contenders this year ...
but what next - when abreu, damon, giambi, matsui comes off the books and arod, jeter, and posada continue to age and decline to varying degrees - where is the offense going to come from - i don't think it is prudent to assume jackson and tabata will be able to make up all this production.
my point in my earlier post is it is not easy to get the prime impact bats through free agency anymore.
obviously cashman is in a tough situation as usual - does trying to win this year hinder winning in the future? how do the yanks get some good position players that will be hitting when the pitching is coming into its own?
most likely i think the yanks have to hope a good number of the pitching prospects pans out and trades some of them for a good bat or two.

I certainly agree with ny2ca2dc and ms oct that it would be nice (ideal) to see can't-miss prospects on the cusp in our system. But out of a 'depleted' system, we've managed to get Wang, Melky, Cano, Joba, with Hughes and Kennedy still possible-stars. If Tabata and Jackson don't pan out, then we'll have to go after Carl Crawford or Sizemore, which (as ms. oct. notes) won't be easy. So what is the alternative?

I didn't like the Giambi signing, and I was ambivalent about the Damon signing, but I'm thrilled about the Abreu deal and I think Cashman was absolutely right to spend the big bucks on A-Rod, Posada, Mo. The Matsui contract looks decent, too. So I think we're playing the cards right.

Giambi drops off the books, then Damon, and we will shortly say goodbye to The Nameless One. There's going to be serious spending money in the next few years. I'm optimistic.

14 I don't see any deals there. The Dodgers have too many OFs to begin with; the Ms and Tigers have no OF room either. The Indians and Cubs have no hitting prospects of value (outside of the Cubs' Felix Pie, currently hitting .222/.286/.286, when he's not in Sweet Lou's doghouse).

The problem isn't teams that need help on the corners; Toronto, Baltimore, KC, Texas, the Mets, SD, and SF all fit that bill.

The problem is, those teams have no MLB-ready-hitters to give back; if they did, they'd be using them! (SD has Chase Headley, but with Edmonds gone, he's bound to be up soon. And they are too smart to give up a young cheap hitter for a vet anyway.)

[14 18 ] Gotta say RIYank and Schteeve have this right, by me (though RI missed the 'average for his position, not all positions' point Schteeve made. Giambi IS weird, no question but even where he is he is NOT hurting us, amazingly.)

Quite aside from missing which players are doing WELL you are missing the slow emergence of intelligence among other GMs (and fiscal prudence). Unless you want to do what the Blue Jays did and swallow 6 million (to dodge 10 million!) on someone like The Hurt aging overpaid players are NOT marketable commodities UNLESS someone in July thinks they can be put over the top by such a star PLAYING like a star! If they are playing like stars we don't WANT to deal them!

Further, if the league stays bunched we are unlikely to be so out of it in July as to weakly throw in the towel anyhow. It is obviously (I think it is obvious) true that if Alex and Jorge are down for weeks and weeks more, the Yankees are unlikely to be a playoff team (though I live in memory of 1978 and 14 1/2 out in July) and I could see a July deal of someone to an NL contender facing a sudden injury if that is the case.

A lot of these 'trade Mussina' or 'trade Giambi' kind of rely on the stupidity of other GMs. What, exactly, do you think Moose would get right now? And who would start for us? Igawa?

29 I wouldn't depend on the stupidity of other GMs, but I also wouldn't rule it out.

As for Giambi, I have supported him rather heartily through the years, but I don't think the signs are very good. Sure, he has an OPS+ of 117, but with the small sample, that can be misleading. If you look at his splits, Giambi is devouring right handed finesse pitchers, while he is has been downright awful against lefties, power pitchers and pitchers classified as Power/finesse. Stats aside, just by watching you can tell Giambi is struggling to get around a good fastball. If the bench was performing and the troops were healthy, you'd have to seriously consider turning Giambi into an occassional starter, especially when you factor in his poor defense.

In other words, Giambi is a part of the problem right now.

30 I wouldn't depend on GM-stupidity either. How many truly foolish GMs are still out there? Its not nearly as many as it used to be.

And while Giambi is part of the problem, how do you solve that problem? Get rid of Giambi? Ok, but who do you replace him with? Call up Miranda, or Eric Duncan? Use a Betemit/Shelley platoon? I'm not sure if those are real solutions. There's only one real solution, but his initials are BLB, and I'm not touching that one again.

31 Right now, the Yankees can't really solve the problem. Of course, if we are talking about a rebuild situation, you don't need to solve it.

The Yankees really have no choice but to keep running Giambi out there and hope he finds it just like he did in 2005. Otherwise, you have to consider simply using Giambi in favorable spots and then filling in at first base with whomever is relatively hot and healthy. Also, if Posada is ready to swing, but not throw from behind the plate, he could be an option at 1B as well.

As best I understood things coming out of spring, Giambi was NOT supposed to starts vs lefties! (Am I wrong? I might be.) We had 2-3 options (Shelley, Betemit, Ensberg) to play 1st for that. I recall that Giambi got shifted out of the DH mix at some point when Girardi acknowledged that he just hit better when in the field, but I think his being run out there vs lefties is more a measure of failure from the right side hitters than him. In other words, he's getting on enough to be better than them.

So william (by me!) is (ahem) right and wrong again. He is only 'part of the problem' if he is the best we have vs lefties. He is a perfectly adequate for the position solution against righties, while healthy ... and my guess is he'll actually get better. Certainly his core numbers would be better if he sat against the better southpaws.

Basically, the 3 solutions for first base platoon have not been, so far. That isn't Giambi's fault.

Cano of going to be fine. He had a horrible April. Cano in May is .313/.353/.563/.915.

The problem is C,1b,3b

32 True, in a rebuild situation, if Eric Duncan keeps hitting at AAA, why not try him at 1B in the bigs?

Here's a problem I found. This is a list of how many guys are on base for each hitter's PAs.

Giambi - 105
Abreu - 95
Matsui - 93
Cano - 92
Melky - 91
Jeter - 78
Damon - 71
A-Rod - 66
Posada - 50
Ensberg - 46
Molina - 39
Shelley - 27
Moeller - 22
AG - 19
Betemit - 16

Now, here's the list of how often the hitters drive runners on base in (not including themselves via HR):

Jeter - 0.21795%
Abreu - 0.2%
Posada - 0.2%
Damon - 0.16901%
Matsui - 0.13978% (uh, where's Giambi?)
Moeller - 0.13636% (uh-oh)
Melky - 0.13187%
Betemit - 0.125% (oh boy)
Giambi - 0.12381% (Cano must be next, right?)
A-Rod - 0.10606% (ummm . . .)
Molina - 0.07692% (this is bad)
Cano - 0.07609% (d'oh)
Ensberg - 0.06522%
AG - 0.05263%
Shelley - 0.03704%

The problem is Giambi comes to the plate with more men on base than any other Yank (so far), but he's 9th (out of 15) in terms of driving them in. Cano comes to the plate with the 4th most men on base, but he's 12th out of 15 in terms of driving them in. Even Matsui isn't helping a lot in this regard.

I think a batting order shift might be in order; what say Giambi bats 8th, where his inability to drive runners in doesn't hurt so much?

33 I think I'm just right!

Seriously, I am not blaming Giambi personally for the Yankees current 1B situation. While it isn't his fault that the Yankees do not have other options, his status as an everyday 1B still constitutes a problem. Sometimes, you don't have to assign blame in order to identify a problem.

34 and starting pitching...

29 - I'm pretty sure that we could get either a decent middle reliever - which we could very much use - or a "good" prospect (i.e. productive AAA'er who projects to league average ML'er) for Mussina right now.

I believe that by the All Star break, and certainly after, his trade value will have shrunk to zero. That's based on the precipitous fall off I predict.

As I've written before re: Mussina, I'd LOVE to be wrong. I just don't think I am.

As for who we replace him with in the rotation, no, not Igawa - I think we can all agree on that!! But I'm quite sure that among the 4-5 guys we've all talked about at AA/AAA there is at least one who, if brought up now, would be a league average (or slightly worse) SP. And I do NOT think Mussina will be that in the 2nd half. And in any case I'd rather watch one of them struggle (and learn) than Mussina.

BTW is there any reason (other than Posada's contract) to assume we don't back up the truck to sign Tex after this year?

37 Re: Tex - the money is there. Giambi, Moose, Pavano, Pettitte, and Farns all come off the books.

But the Yanks don't offer him the moon if he wants an 8-year deal (or more). Let someone else suffer through his decline phase. I'd draw the line at 6 years, at most, though 4 years would be best.

38 Yeah shades of Damon where Boras was insisting 6-7 years all winter and Cash swooped in and "stole" him for 4 years...

It'll be interesting to see how the Tex (and CC) sweepstakes shape up, and where they come out. Most of the existing 5+ year deals are not helping the causes of Tex and CC, that's for sure. Nor is the general wisening up of the GM pool...

I was all for getting Carlos Beltran. Since he has been a Met, he has posted a 124 OPS+ over 3+ years. This is good, but $18m good? The next 3 years will tell, but his long term deal may have been the closest to a 'no brainer' (of the long term deals).

All teams, even the Rays, are locking up their young talent. There were many vets this year who never got signed. Maybe this is a good market correction, and the days of having to sign guys to long term deals, through their age 35 year, are over.

The Yankees have a lot of money to spend over the next 2 years. It's hard to factor this in when worrying about the future. The cost of seats at the new stadium is such that the Yankees MUST have pennant competative teams. I have faith, but I think the most important Yankee in the future in Cashman. If we go back to a 'Steinbrenner managed' team, we are in trouble.