Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Baltimore Orioles
2007 Record: 69-93 (.426)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 70-92 (.431)
Manager: Dave Trembley
General Manager: Andy MacPhail
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Oriole Park at Camden Yards (101/102)
Who's Replacing Whom:
Luis Hernandez inherits Miguel Tejada's playing time
Adam Jones replaces Corey Patterson
Luke Scott replaces Jay Gibbons and some of Jay Payton's playing time
Brandon Fahey inherits Chris Gomez's playing time
Guillermo Quiroz replaces Paul Bako
Adam Loewen returns from the DL to replace Erik Bedard
Brian Burres takes over the starts of Garrett Olson, Jon Leicester, and Radhames Liz
George Sherrill replaces Chris Ray (DL)
Dennis Sarfate replaces Danys Baez (DL)
Greg Aquino replaces John Parrish
Matt Albers replaces Rob Bell
Randor Bierd replaces Kurt Burkins
Jim Jones replaces Paul Shuey
25-man Roster:
1B - Kevin Millar (R)
2B - Brian Roberts (S)
SS - Luis Hernandez (S)
3B - Melvin Mora (R)
C - Ramon Hernandez (R)
RF - Nick Markakis (L)
CF - Adam Jones (R)
LF - Luke Scott (L)
DH - Aubrey Huff (L)
Bench:
R - Jay Payton (OF)
L - Brandon Fahey (UT)
R - Guillermo Quiroz (C)
Rotation:
R - Jeremy Guthrie
R - Daniel Cabrera
L - Brian Burres
R - Steve Trachsel
L - Adam Loewen
Bullpen:
L - George Sherrill
L - Jamie Walker
R - Chad Bradford
R - Greg Aquino
R - Dennis Sarfate
R - Randor Bierd
R - Matt Albers
R - Jim Johnson
15-day DL: R - Chris Ray, R- Danys Baez, R - Fernando Cabrera, L - Troy Patton, R - Jim Hoey, R - Rocky Cherry, L - Freddie Bynum (UT)
Typical Lineup:
S - Brian Roberts (2B)
R - Melvin Mora (3B)
L - Nick Markakis (RF)
R - Kevin Millar (1B)
L - Aubrey Huff (DH)
L - Luke Scott (LF)
R - Ramon Hernandez (C)
R - Adam Jones (CF)
S - Luis Hernandez (SS)
The Orioles have split three two-game series, lost two three-game series, and swept one four-game series at home against the Mariners. That M's sweep stands as an aberration on both team's records as the M's are 4-1-1 in series thus far this season, and the O's are 1-2-3. The Yankees, meanwhile, are 2-2-2, all but one of those six series coming against AL East opponents. The Yankees are 8-6 against their own division with a .667 winning percentage against the Jays and Rays. In fact, what separates them from a .667 or better winning percentage against the division as a whole is Mike Mussina's inability to retire Manny Ramirez. The Yankees lost the two games Mike Mussina started against the Red Sox by a combined three runs. In those games, Ramirez went 4-for-5 against Mussina with a double, three home runs and six RBIs. If you count the run Ramirez scored after driving Mussina from the game in Boston, Manny was responsible for 7 of the Red Sox's 11 runs in those two games. Fortunately, the Orioles, the one AL East foe the Yankees haven't faced yet this year and the team against whom they open a three-game set in Baltimore tonight, don't have anyone as dangerous as Manny Ramirez in their lineup. They also won't get the privilege of facing Mike Mussina.
Over the past decade, the Orioles have become a contemptibly bad franchise. They finally made some moves in acknowledgment of that fact last year by bringing in Andy MacPhail, the architect of the Twins' two World Series winners, to head up their baseball operations, assigning him to the task of rebuilding. The grandson of late-40s Yankees general manager Larry MacPhail and son of former Yankees and Orioles general manager Lee MacPhail, Andy got right to work by trading two of the team's most marketable commodities, shipping slugging shortstop Miguel Tejada to Houston and lefty ace Erik Bedard to Seattle for prospects.
Those deals yielded 22-year-old shortstop-turned-center fielder Adam Jones, left-handed closer George Sherrill, and three minor league pitchers from the Mariners, and lefty platoon outfielder Luke Scott, minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo, and another trio of young pitchers from the Astros. Sherrill and Scott are stop-gaps, complimentary players in their early 30s who won't be around for the next Baltimore run at contention. Constanzo is 24, in his first year at triple-A, and has struck out 399 times in 359 minor league games and made 61 errors at third base in the last two years.
Of the six young arms obtained, two are on the O's 25-man roster. The oldest of the bunch, Dennis Sarfate, is a 27-year-old righty who was converted to relief last year and is with his third organization in the last eight months. He has strikeout stuff, but has given up six runs in his last four innings. Matt Albers is a 25-year-old righty who pitched poorly as a swing man in the Astros pen last year after being rushed through triple-A and is back in that role for the O's this year, though with better results thus far. The best pitcher the O's acquired was probably 22-year-old lefty starter Troy Patton, but he's going to miss the entire season following surgery to repair the labrum in his pitching shoulder. The three arms the O's got from Seattle all have potential, but are pretty raw. Twenty-year-old right-handed starter Chris Tillman is the best of the bunch. He's making the leap to double-A this year where he's joined by 24-year-old 6-foot-9 righty Kameron Mickolio, who has closer potential. Lefty Tony Butler is just 20, but also still in the Sally League.
That leaves Jones, who delivered a game-winning single last night, as the best get. He should form a solid two-some in the outfield with 24-year-old right fielder Nick Markakis. The O's also have 2007 first-rounder Matt Wieters at high-A this spring and hope he will move quickly to take the big league catching job from Ramon Hernandez, who's four-year contract runs out after next season. Those three should form the core of the O's rebuilt offense, but they'll need more.
Right now, second baseman Brian Roberts is their most valuable commodity, though MacPhail was unable to work out a deal with the Cubs during spring training. Hernandez could also have value on the trade market as catching is extremely thin around the majors and, at 32, he should retain his value through the end of his contract (which contains an option for 2010). Of course, Hernandez will have to restore his value first after a poor, injury-plagued 2007 season. If Jeremy Guthrie can repeat his breakout season of a year ago, he might be a good chip, as the late-blooming 29-year-old is only a month younger than Bedard and still in his team-control years. The O's could also flip Scott or Sherrill if either is able to build off his hot start.
Whether they cash those players in or not, the Orioles will look very different two years from now. Setting aside kids such as Markakis and Jones, who are under team control, the Orioles don't have a single player under contract for 2010. That opens up a lot of opportunity for rebuilding, but the O's still need prospects to fill those holes. They have Luis Hernandez, a career .250/.296/.325 hitter in the minors, replacing Miguel Tejada at shortstop right now. That sort of thing will only take the Orioles from contemptibly bad to pathetically bad.
Speaking of which, Daniel Cabrera starts tonight against Phil Hughes. Cabrera is now 27 and never did figure it out. He's walked 12 against 11 Ks in 16 2/3 innings thus far this year and his 5.94 ERA isn't out of line with what he did last year (5.55 in 34 starts). The Yanks saw Cabrera a whopping five times last year and walked 17 times against 18 Ks in those five games while Cabrera posted a 6.67 ERA and his team went 1-4. As for Hughes, he faced Baltimore twice last season, but will make his Camden Yards debut tonight. It was beautiful in Baltimore today, with temperatures in the 80s. It will drop down to about 60 tonight, but that's still a big improvement over the mid-40s temperatures Hughes had to deal with in his last two disastrous starts. Hughes is facing a bad team under good conditions, so the stage is set for him to get back on track.
In other Yankee news, here's the latest from Joba. Pete Abe reports that Edwar Ramirez is in the visitors clubhouse in Baltimore. With Scranton thus far this season, Edwar has allowed three baserunners in seven scoreless innings and struck out 11. I won't speculate as to whose roster spot he might be taking.
Joe Girardi is playing the same nine men at the same nine positions as Tuesday, the first time he's repeated a defensive alignment all year. He has, however, swapped Giambi and Cano's spots in the batting order, so it counts as his 18th unique lineup in 18 games.
OK OK .... I'll retract that statement.
Thomas canned as Knicks coach!!!!
(finally!!!)
OK .... back to baseball ...
Sports Illustrated has uncovered the identity of the supposed steroids dealer Jose Canseco says he introduced to Alex Rodriguez.
Joseph Dion confirmed some of Canseco's story but denies giving Rodriguez any steroids.
Reporters from New York just spoke to Rodriguez, who admitted to working with Dion. "A good man, a real good man, actually," Rodriguez. "I had no idea he even knew (Canseco)."
This after explaining, twice, that in 10 starts where he doesn't give up a run in the first, Hughes has 4 wins.
6 is still larger than 4, right?
In any case, I hope Kay and his flawed math are correct. There's nobody I'm rooting for harder on this roster than Phil Hughes.
CRAB CAKES!!!!!!!!!!!
Can we please light up Cabrera?
56 pretty good but throwing a lot of pitches and not really tricking anyone with the curve
On a serious note, they're have been way too many f-ups betwixt pitcher and catcher with a guy on 2nd so far this year.
Santana pitching a beauty, White Sox still hot, Red Sox slaughtering Texas and Detroit down by 2 after 5.
82 is your dog ok?
Break this open for me.
Best Regards,
Phil
Ach, Melky!
The result looks good so far, but Phil Hughes has been far from impressive. He continues to fall behind early, can't seem to locate his fastball on the inside corner and has rarely thrown a sharp curve. Against a better lineup, this could have been another short night for Hughes.
This is not the same Phil Hughes who threw in Texas. This is inning is a good example of what's wrong with Hughes so far. He doesn't throw enough strikes early and he doesn't miss bats. I was expecting a dominant performance tonight. Needless to say, this is pretty disappointing.
[1-3] 104 Thanks guys, appreciate it
Also, Mussina has actually outperformed Hughes this year.
Even that Arod botch right there...you'd like to think Hughes could get some swings and misses off a clearly wild swinger.
Anyways, I'm out, frustrated once again....
I said it last start, but I think we all need to accept the possibility that Hughes just might not be ready for the majors.
Also, it's not a matter of being patient with Mussina. It's realizing he is the best option to be league average out of the 5th slot. Unfortunately, if Hughes doesn't turn things around significantly, Moose is going to be more like the 4th starter.
Ultimately, the Yankees have to make sure Hughes is a very good starter, or else not gettign Santana could wind up setting them back significantly. I don't think having Hughes toil in the majors is the best way to ensure that future.
Oh, an Edwar sighting!
YOu can pretend that you are being even handed, but you aren't. Hughes is learning and has upside. Moose is regressing and has no upside, and in fact, has negative side. His stubborness and lack of "stuff" will not change, Hughes has a lot to learn by going through what he is. Sure, Moose's #s might be a bit better right now, but by the end of the season? Not damn likely.
He was pretty good but inefficient for five innings, at which point his line was 5 4 1 2 1, not bad at all. He was over 80 pitches when he ended the 5th, and under normal circumstances that would have been his evening. But the pen is short so they pushed him to 97 and ran out of gas, given up a few more hits (including an infield hit) and runs. Then the BP came in and allowed all of his inherited runners to score.
It's pretty much a replay of the last start, except that he pitched much, much better tonight, at least according to his stats. If the team had a lead (ie, scored more than ONE run), Girardi would have pulled Hughes sooner, and we would all be praising his outing as he waited to see if the BP secured his win. All in all, I find such a night pretty encouraging.
This is exactly what the team needs to do with him. He has to pushed to throw 90, 95, 100 pitches. He has to do so facing big league competition, and he has to learn to be more efficient with those pitches. The team needs to figure out if he is really a future ace or a future #3. But they aren't going to do that by burying him in the minors.
And in any case, who replaces him in the rotation?
Nope. This was the deal with going with young pitchers. They have to be willing to suffer through this season, the same way the Cubs endured Maddux's trying first season.
I agree that Hughes is learning and has upside, but I don't necessarily agree the best place for him to learn is in the majors. You simply can't let him to pitch to a 9 ERA for much longer. It doesn't help him, nor does it help the team.
The comparison to Mussina is a red herring. If you dump Mussina, then Rasner, Igawa or Karstens will take his place. That isn't a sure improvement. The benefit to demoting Hughes, however, is it might allow the Yankees to restore Hughes to an ace pitching prospect, which he really hasn't resembled since that game in Texas.
As for Maddux, the 1987 Cubs went 73-88. I don't think the Yankees are prepared for that.
Sick of it.
I want to be a dangerous team.
Because his curve was in the dirt, doesn't mean it was non-existent. He threw plenty of good curves tonight. I'm watching tv while checking gameday, btw. Maybe we are just watching two different angles of the same game... shit I don't know.
Well, that's a different argument then. That has little to do with the benefits of seasoning Hughes in the minors or against MLBers, and everything to do with the Yankees' organization impatience.
157 I've been watching the Yankees versus the Orioles. He threw plenty of curves earlier on, but either hung them or bounced them. I am anxious to see how many swings and misses, or even called strikes, came from the curve.
Again, organizational patience could also mean Hughes getting sent back down to re-work on his craft.
Nope, the flashes are there. It's the consistency that is lacking.
I want Hughes to succeed as much as anyone, but I get the impression that a lot of Yankees fans want a hone grown stud so badly, they are blinding themselves to the possibility that Hughes may either not be an ace, or may need more time to reach his potential.
And for what it's worth. I'd rather see Hughes struggle and or dominate in the Bigs than do the same vs. the Rochester Red Wings. As they say, driving (playoffs) is a privilege, not a right.
BLEH.
How many screamers did Phil allow?
How many deep flys/HRs/gap shots?
I saw grounders threw and some soft liners.
It wasn't great, but even without his best stuff, he seemed they were not hitting him hard.
ARod had a play at the plate, lost concentration, blew the play, and the game got away. Up to that point, Phil was fine. Not great, but a decent showing.
That's interesting. I am perfectly willing to accept that he is not going to be an ace or needs more time to reach his potential. i just feel that he can do this just as well in the MLB.
You on the other hand see a few bad starts and jump to the conclusion that he is either not ready or is not an ace. Such a reaction can only come someone who assumes that he will be an ace. So, in effect, your own rhetoric sounds like the type of Hughes fans that you are criticizing!
OK, now I am yanking your chain a bit. Let's wait those three or four more starts that you say Hughes will get. Maybe I'll come around to you way of thinking by then.
I am with all those that preach patience with the young guys, at least in theory...but I also share william's concern that a rebuilding year in the final year of Yankee Stadium isn't exactly appetizing. But it looks that's what we're getting.
This could be a much bigger problem. LaTroyed!
Actually, I'm more upset the our O is still very poor. ARod is like 1/16 with RISP. Giambi, my buddy, does appear to have lost some bat speed. I don't think JD has hit the ball hard more then a few times. Cano and Po are off their games.
It is much more our O that is losing games, rather then are pitching.
I am not trying to make any definitive statements really...just that some serious red flags have gone up, and the Yankees (and their fans) need to be prepared to re-examine their strategy with Hughes.
No.
You are afraid the Yanks might have a crappy last season in Yankee Stadium. Me? I'll gladly trade that for getting Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy the experience they need. Besides, its freaking April and the Yanks are right in the middle of things. They'll scuffle, but until the offense comes around, its not going to matter at all anyways...The way this team was designed, the offense was/is going to have to carry them anyways, until the rotation could be stabilized. Period.
I had really hoped, and almost convinced myself, that he would have one last decent season, after which the Yanks would buy him out. How long should the team wait for his production to come around?
In recent days I have ragged on Damon. But the more I think about it, Giambi is really killing the team right now. When do they pull the plug? I would not be opposed to benching him now in favor of Ensberg, and if that doesn't work Duncan is eligible to come back in a few days.
But man, I'm tired of watching him and whatever he does this year, I'll be pleased to see him gone.
He's spraying the ball around and never seems to go very long without hitting the ball hard. His stroke seems pretty compact.
As for flashes of brilliance, doesn't anyone remember his outing in the playoffs last year? I recall brilliance.
However, one stalled batter doesn't kill a team. See Big Papi, Red Sox. Currently, Giambi's offensive problems are just the tip of the iceberg.
Posada has an OPS of .716. BELOW him are Jeter, Damon, Cano and Giambi. Po and Jeter have stepped it up a bit recently, but that's FIVE guys who's numbers wouldn't crack the DRays lineup.
To hurt a bit more, while ARod has a decent OPS of .900, he is 1 for 16 with RISP. If he simply had his .900 OPS with RISP, we probably have 2 more wins. Not jumpin' on ARod, just sayin.
But again I point out that with a brutal schedule and frigid temperatures, we are just 2 behind Boston, and ahead of Cleveland and Detroit.
So.... we have sucked a bit so far, but if this is (hopefully) the worst of it, we are in decent shape. Let's not forget last year. This is still an excellent team with a GM who WILL do what's necessary to give them every chance possible.
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