Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Boston Red Sox
2007 Record: 96-66 (.593)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 103-59 (.635)
Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein
Home Ballpark (multi-year Park Factors): Fenway Park (106/105)
Who's Replacing Whom:
Jacoby Ellsbury replaces Coco Crisp in center field (sometimes)
Sean Casey replaces Erik Hinske
Kevin Cash replaces Doug Mirabelli
Jon Lester replaces Curt Schilling (DL)
Clay Buchholz replaces the starts of Julian Tavarez (bullpen) and Kason Gabbard
David Aardsma replaces Mike Timlin (DL)
Bryan Corey replaces Kyle Snyder
25-man Roster:
1B - Sean Casey (L)
2B - Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS - Julio Lugo (R)
3B - Kevin Youkilis (R)
C - Jason Varitek (S)
RF - J.D. Drew (L)
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury (L)
LF - Manny Ramirez (R)
DH - David Ortiz (L)
Bench:
S - Coco Crisp (OF)
L - Alex Cora (IF)
S - Jed Lowrie (IF)
R - Kevin Cash (C)
Rotation:
R - Josh Beckett
R - Daisuke Matsuzaka
L - Jon Lester
R - Tim Wakefield
R - Clay Buchholz
Bullpen:
R - Jon Papelbon
L - Hideki Okajima
R - Manny Delcarmen
L - Javier Lopez
R - Julian Tavarez
R - David Aardsma
R - Bryan Corey
15-day DL: R - Mike Lowell (3B), R - Mike Timlin
60-day DL: R - Curt Schilling
Lineup:
R - Dustin Pedroia (2B)
R - Kevin Youkilis (3B)
L - David Ortiz (DH)
R - Manny Ramirez (LF)
L - J.D. Drew (RF)
S - Jason Varitek (C)
L - Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
L - Sean Casey (1B)
R - Julio Lugo (SS)
The Yankees and Red Sox will play five of their 18 head-to-head regular season games this season in the span of one week starting tonight. Both teams enter tonight's game with 5-5 records. Both have been outscored on the season thus far. Both teams are also coping with some early-season aches and pains.
The Yankees have been without Derek Jeter for three games due to a strained quad and have had Jorge Posada only intermittently due to a sore throwing shoulder, but haven't placed either player on the DL (Jeter's out again tonight, Posada will DH as Johnny Damon gets his first day off this season). The Red Sox just put third baseman Mike Lowell on the DL following a thumb injury he suffered in Wednesday night's game. That move shifts Kevin Youkilis to third base and inserts Sean Casey in the lineup. The Sox are also dealing with David Ortiz's continuing knee problems as the big DH is hitting a Giambi-like .083/.267/.167 thus far this season with just three hits in 45 plate appearances, but nine walks.
Given those bumps and bruises and assorted slow starts, neither team is doing a particularly good job of scoring runs thus far. The Sox are a tick below league average, scoring 4.2 runs per game while the Yankees remain the second-worst offense in baseball in the early going, ranking ahead of only the Giants' Quadruple-A squad. On the flip side, the Yankees rank fifth in the AL in preventing runs, allowing just 3.9 per game, while the Red Sox early-season struggles have been primarily due to their pitching, which is the fourth most permissive in the league.
Then again, Daisuke Matsuzaka has allowed just three runs in three starts, two of them coming in the season opener in Tokyo, and Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, both of whom will face the Yankees twice in the next week, have only made one start a piece thus far. Buchholz, who starts tonight against Chien-Ming Wang, struck out seven against just two walks in five innings in his first start of the year up in Toronto, but was undone by a Sean Casey error in the fourth inning that lead to three runs.
Beyond their weak performances thus far, these two teams are not only very evenly matched, but also very similarly constructed. Emerging young star at second base? Check and check. Emerging young talent in center field? Check and check. A lineup built around one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball? Check and check. A 36-year-old switch-hitting catcher? Check and check. A pair of youngsters in the rotation, one a potential ace and one projected as a reliable mid-rotation starter? Check and check. A grizzled veteran with a fastball in the mid-80s occupying another rotation spot? Check and check. An Asian ace holding the rotation together in the meantime? Check and check. One of the best closers in the game and an ace set-up man who came out of nowhere to cause a sensation last year? Check and check.
Hopefully when these two teams meet again in July, I can do a more detailed position-by-position breakdown. For now, I'd call things pretty even, giving the Yankees an edge on the bench for the first time in recent memory, but admitting that they don't really have a counterweight for Josh Beckett in the rotation, a fact exacerbated by the fact that Wang has a 6.17 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in Fenway on his career and has never escaped Boston with fewer than three runs allowed. On the other hand, the Yankees own Hideki Okajima (8.38 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in 9 2/3 innings), which tips the bullpen balance toward the Yankees considerably.
Buchholz makes his first start against the Yankees tonight and just his third ever at Fenway. The last two were his major league debut and his no-hitter against the Orioles. Here's hoping Wang can conjure up the strikeout stuff he had in his last start (6 Ks in 6 IP) to make tonight less memorable the for the 23-year-old Bosox rookie.
2 What is the word on Horne?
http://tinyurl.com/4abcfc
the crux: It could be woise.
Incidentally, Ruben Sierra also had a 20-year major league career, and that doesn't include the 1999 season which he missed entirely. Wow.
In any case, Henn's departure (if nothing else) frees up a spot on the 40-man roster. I'm not sure who, if anyone, the Yanks will want to add to the 40-man (Gardner maybe?) right now, but the spot will be there.
(PS - Cliff, according to MLB.com, Humberto Sanchez is on the 15-day DL, not the 60-day DL.)
"3/29/08 Placed RHP Humberto Sanchez on the 60-day disabled list recovering from April 2007 Tommy John surgery."
But Sierra, of course, has nothing on Julio Franco. Its amazing to look at both of their careers. Franco was all over the place for his career in terms of OPS+, while Sierra pretty much dropped off the table after 1995, his first half season in NYY. Its amazing that the guy, despite sporting some ungodly OPS and only once playing above average, managed to play for another TEN YEARS!!!!
Contrast that with Chili Davis, who in 18 FULL years in the majors (not counting the first cup of coffee), was only below average once.
Right now, its quite overcast here in the 'burbs.
Jeez, I hope it's nice in TB.
OK, clearly I am talking to myself
Although thats two very hard hit balls that have managed to be hit right at people
terrible swing Jorge
Papi now has made as many outs as ABs.
something i remember from 99 or 2000 is kay at least intimating that since el duque throws so many 1-2-3 it was only a matter of time before he threw a perfect game.
that was clearly an error, he missed the throw.
76 I suppose.
Come on Melky!
For me, I think I have to go Varitek.
1. pedroia
2. youkilis
3. beckett
4. papelbon
5. varitek
99 k'd on a nasty change.
106 casey is not that good.
is casey better than giambi, ensberg, betemit, duncan at first?
97 Schilling in first by a mile, then Papelbon. I want to dislike Wakefield, because he gave them such a sweetheart deal (perpetual $4M/year options!?!?), but I can't. That man has persevered.
CC with 18 ERs in 14 IP this year.
Now let's see if AG does get his first Yankee RBI.
This "AG bunting before the 8th inning of a close game" stuff has got to end.
nice to see some good hitting when it matters
Papi down. 3/39 this year.
4 outs to go.
A few blips, but our pitching has been outstanding!
I know Mattpatt is VERY happy. Joyous even.
1st pitch to Ortiz in the 1st
1st pitch to A-Rod in the 2nd
5th pitch to Matsui in the 2nd
2nd pitch to Abreu in the 6th
2nd pitch to Pedroia in the 7th
Consistent or not, I hate it when the umps call the strike zone according to Eric Gregg in the '97 NLCS, and not according to the rule book.
And doesn't that empty the Sox bullpen lefty options?
very, very encouraging start to the year for wang
205 Of all the games I've seen via Gameday, I think you're right.
"We're gonna pitch a wang dang doodle all night long
All night long
All night long
All night long
All night long
We're gonna pitch a wang dang doodle all night long"
doodles
Nice battle, Mickey Molina! weeping would have been proud (until the last pitch), I think.
Tonight we restore order!
What a game. And I was worried about Wanger, who's had a lot of trouble in Fenway.
1) go with the pitch count and leave wang in until he runs into trouble
2) warm mo but stay with wang until he puts someone on
3) go with mo
255 What? AG's double (I'm guessing of the wall)?
1
But if they can get AG around to score, then definitely leave him in there to finish his own game.
Why not let Melky hit?
grrrrrrr
nice hustle bobby!
Lesseeit.
Man, if Abreu had caught Drew's home run, the name Coco Crisp would never be spoken here again, without severe penalty.
I can't remember when I saw a better-pitched game for the Yanks.
good to get this first one ... since we've got moose vs beckett tomorrow
4/1 vs TOR: 2:31
4/3 vs TOR: 2:45
4/6 vs TB: 2:43
4/7 vs TB: 2:53
4/9 vs KC: 2:45
4/10 vs KC: 2:52 (not including delays)
4/11 vs BOS: 2:59
Two other games were under 3:10 (4/4 vs TB and 4/5 vs TB) while 4/2 vs TOR was 3:10 on the nose.
Nice game by Girardi, outstanding effort by Wang. Tomorrow's a beautiful day.
Could the Yanks be dialing the gun down a bit for Sox pitchers? What did the YES gun have Wang at?
Dis you get a read on CMW on the Yes Gun in the 9th?
The HR was catchable. Sigh.
The "error" was a hit, IMO.
I love it. I said I'd be ok with 1 out of 3. We've got the one. Pressure is off a bit.
We're coming around.
Chien's a stud, Andy's a golden god, and how 'bout that Molina, eh?
a) Jorge to DH and Jose at C
and/or?
b) Jeter to 1B and Gonzo at SS
That was one hell of a dominant performance. 93 pitches, 61 strikes. Only 3 Ks, but that included Manny and Papi. Offense not steamrolling yet, but certainly showing some signs of life. I keep thinking A-Rod is starting slow, then I look up, see him batting over .300 with 2 HRs already. Last year spoiled me a bit I guess.
All in all, I have a smile on my face.
(a) No, because Molina will hit a lot worse than our DH this year. But for fifty games, okay. We want Jorgie in prime condition for October.
(b) Yes, on pure baseball grounds. But no way in real life, because of clubhouse and because Girardi doesn't have the capital to pull it off.
A thousand times no on b). Giambi will eventually come around. Even Ozzie Smith's glove at SS wouldn't justify sitting Giambi/Matsui (assuming Damon starts most of the time in LF).
11 games in, 6-5 and I really like Girardi so far.
339 Not yet. Cashman will back him too. They both know the defense suffers. With Giambi gone next year, it's Jeter.
341 He threw 95 at Manny's hands.
Many of us were kind of attached to the guy, sentimentally speaking. But I'd say now we're all pretty pleased about it.
:)
Good luck with him.
Clay Davenport's Fielding Runs Above Average/Replacement (FRAA/FRAR) had Jeter at -3/18 last year. To save an additional 25 runs, AG would have to post 22/43 in FRAA/FRAR. Those are numbers Adam Everett did not reach at his peak. In fact, that's basically slightly worse than a typical Ozzie Smith season with the glove. Let's say AG saves 15 runs over Jeter at SS; that seems more reasonable.
We know AG can't hit much (weighted mean PECOTA VORP projection: 3.2 in 549 PA).
Let's say Jeter is 15 runs better than Giambi at 1B. 15+15+3.2 = 33.2 runs
Giambi at 1B could provide that many runs on offense alone (he'd have to have a VORP of 33.2). (And, at his worst with the glove at 1B in NY, Giambi had a FRAA/FRAR of -5/-1; those aren't horrible numbers.) Further, assuming that Damon is the regular LF, that also means you can't have Giambi and Matsui in the lineup in the same time (without shifting half the lineup around). So, to play Giambi at DH, you have sit someone else who is likely to produce much better than AG with the bat - either Matsui, Melky, or Abreu.
So no, in total, I do not think AG at SS and Jeter at 1B contributes more runs to the Yanks than Jeter at SS and Giambi at 1B. I won't even get into the "Giambi hits a ton better when he plays the field" variable.
In comparison, Pujols (perhaps the best defensive 1B in baseball) was 10/18 in '07, while Derrek Lee was 6/15. Jeter has never played even a PA at 1B in his professional career. Something tells me he will not move to 1B and become the greatest fielder right away. So let's revise that "15 runs saved over Giambi" down to more like 7. Even that might be too much.
Can Giambi alone amass a VORP of 27.3 (15+7+3.2+2, the +2 to offset a -2 with his glovework at 1B)? I say yes. Factor in the "if you play Giambi at DH, another good hitter has to sit", and it becomes more certain.
Oddly enough, the natural place to move him would be 3B, since he has such a strong arm and decent range moving to his right. Somehow I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon though. If he hits, he is worth it at SS. If he starts to decline, it becomes a tricky dilemma.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cuc_RNkq9kI&eurl=http://www.chien-ming.com/
I do think that you exaggerate the danger of Jeter and Tabata and Co. competing for OF spots any time soon. Tabata is only 18 or so--he doesn't really project as a full time OF at MLB for a couple of years. By that time Damon and Abreu are gone, and Matsui restricted to DH/BUOF. Have either Jackson or Tabata played much above high-A level?
Gardner is probably not going to hit that much, certainly not enough to carry him at LF or RF.
IF Jeter were to move, the OF (LF) probably makes more sense, and there would be a window of a couple of years before the hard decisions would have to be made.
In any case, if he continues to hit, it's probably just as well to leave him at SS, despite the often ugly results with the glove.
360 I agree with that too. If he's not moved next year, LF in 2009 makes alot of sense especially because he won't be very productive for a 1B 366 .
Aside, does anyone know how to look up average rates for position and league?
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