Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
It rained all morning in Kansas City yesterday, and though the precipitation stopped in time for the Royals' home opener against the Yankees, the weather remained cold, dank, and dreary. The two teams played accordingly, putting 30 men on base, but scoring just seven of them in a slow, sloppy contest which the Royals won by the surprisingly tidy score of 5-2.
Brian Bannister failed to execute his gameplan early on, throwing first-pitch strikes to just three of the first 11 men he faced. Phil Hughes didn't fair much better, getting strike one on just four of his first dozen batters. Neither pitcher was sharp, and the weather was at least partially to blame, as Hughes seemed to spend as much time blowing into his pitching hand as he did actually pitching, but home plate umpire Mark Wegner's strike zone wasn't helping. Wegner's performance behind the plate was one of the worst I can remember. There was absolutely no consistency to his zone not only from at-bat to at-bat, but within single at-bats. Both benches were riding him, both pitchers were frustrated, and batters on both sides couldn't figure out what to swing at or what to take. In part due to Wegner's embarrassing performance, there were ten walks and 19 strikeouts in the game, eight of the latter on called third strikes.
Things were bad all over. At the end of three innings, the game was tied 2-2 with both starters having walked four men. Brian Bannister had thrown 71 pitches and allowed eight baserunners. Hughes had thrown 79 pitches and allowed nine baserunners. Things tilted in the Royals' favor when Bannister pitched around a Johnny Damon single in the top of the fourth and Phil Hughes came out and gave up a pair of singles to start the bottom of the inning. Those two at-bats pushed Hughes' pitch count to 87 and, thanks to the baserunning of Joey Gathright (more on that below), gave the Royals a 3-2 lead. With a man on first and no outs, Joe Girardi went to his bullpen, hoping for a groundball double play from Ross Ohlendorf.
Ohlendorf delivered exactly that, then struck out Jose Guillen to end the inning, but after Bannister pitched the first 1-2-3 frame of the game in the top of the fifth, Ollie coughed up a pair of runs in the bottom of that inning to set the final score.
The Yankees got three more baserunners against lefty reliever Ron Mahay, but never staged a credible threat in the late innings as their last nine batters were retired in order by Mahay, former Yankee farmhand Ramon Ramirez, and the end-game combo of Leo Nuñez and Joakim Soria, thus wasting scoreless innings of relief by Ohlendorf (who saved the Yankee pen by going three full), Billy Traber, and LaTroy Hawkins (who again put two men on only to work out of his own jam).
Adding insult to injury, the Yankees played poorly in the field. Bobby Abreu made the only error of the game in the second inning when he tried to backhand a single on the run only to have the ball clank off the heal of his glove and the runner go to second, but there were several other misplays by the Bombers. Johnny Damon uncorked and errant rainbow throw from the outfield on an RBI single in the fifth that allowed the batter to go to second. Wilson Betemit, who otherwise acquitted himself well at shortstop, twice misplayed throws from Jorge Posada at the keystone, once having the throw clank off his glove and another time attempting, unsuccessfully, to take the throw while straddling the bag, narrowly avoiding a knee injury in the resulting collision with the baserunner. Most distressingly, the Yankees thrice correctly identified when the Royals were going to attempt a steal, twice pitching out and once throwing to first behind the runner, but failed to catch the runner in any of those three instances. In the last, Jason Giambi failed to get a good grip on the ball and never even made a throw to second.
Those issues with opposing basestealers were the most disturbing part of the game. Clearly aware that Jorge Posada had been struggling with a sore throwing shoulder, new Royals' skipper Trey Hillman decided to run on the Yankee catcher at every opportunity. The Royals' first batter, Joey Gathright, led off the bottom of the first with a single, then stole second. In the second, Hillman again found himself with a runner on first and no one ahead of him and had Tony Peña Jr. steal second. In the fourth, Gathright again led off with a single and stole both second and third in the next at-bat.
Posada singled in three at-bats, but his inability to control the Royals' running game forced Girardi to replace him after six innings. Jose Molina's record was promptly tainted by Ross Gload stealing on the pickoff botched by Giambi, but Molina announced his presence on the next pitch by throwing Gload out at third.
So here's where things go from bad to worse. Adding injury to insult, Posada was scheduled for an MRI on his shoulder after the game. He says he feels no pain in the shoulder, but that his arm feels "dead," a feeling he's had before, but one that's previously gone away with four or five days of rest. Posada rested three days last week and had Monday off, but obviously his shoulder is no better.
The thing is, with Derek Jeter also out of commission, Posada's injury leaves the team with a two-man bench and Morgan Ensberg, who last donned the tools of ignorance as a schoolboy, as their backup catcher. Either man could be back in action by the end of the weekend, making a DL stay excessive in either case, but the Yankees may be forced to make some other sort of roster move in the meantime just to avoid being caught shorthanded. For example, farming out Ohlendorf in the wake of his three-inning, 36-pitch outing in order to make room for triple-A catcher Chad Moeller or an extra infielder might make sense. Ohlendorf would have to spend 10 days in the minors, but the Yanks could juggle the roster by replacing Moeller with Jonathan Albaladejo when Posada's ready to catch again, then decide what do with Ohlendorf when he becomes eligible to be recalled (certainly Ollie's ability to come in and get a groundball DP like he did yesterday is of considerable value, as is his 6:0 K/BB rate in seven innings thus far this season). Of course, Posada's MRI could show that he'll need to miss more time, making a DL stay and Moeller's recall an easier decision, but we likely won't know more about that until closer to game time. Stay tuned . . .
If there's good news to be had here it's in Molina's performance thus far. Molina has picked up a hit in each of his four starts in place of the injured Posada, two of them doubles, and has thrown out four of the five men who have attempted to steal on him (not counting yesterday's botched pickoff). If he can stay hot both at the plate and behind it, the Yankees won't miss Posada too much provided he doesn't miss any more than the 15-day minimum, preferably much less. That's a lot of wishful thinking, but Molina has looked good in the early going.
Sure, I know he didn't show much last year, but even that was better than Molina. And it would be much better than Molina with a backup of Moeller.
Interestingly, Posada has always been undervalued, but I think many people have also started to under appreciate Jeter's importance to this team. All the headlines about his defense have kind of chipped away at his aura, but his presence in the Yankee lineup is still extremely important.
Assuming the injuries to The Commander & Chief (Posada & Jeter on yer scorecards) are not season-ending, it's not the end-of-the-world that these vets are getting rest, and their backups are getting work.
Here's hoping batters one through six can get the sticks working, and that Kennedy finds his groove tonight.
By contrast, Piazza had 122 OPS+ in 2006 (and slightly above average seasons before that).
The point is: Piazza is a no-risk, decent reward option for two weeks and much better than the Molina and Moeller combo.
When you add in that Piazza hasn't had a spring training or likely even faced live pitching, it could take weeks for him to even get up to a 90ish OPS+ speed, making him more of a long-term solution than a short-term one.
In other words, Piazza does carry risk...that he might not hit in April and would be an awful defensive catcher (if he can even do it anymore).
This won't affect Jetere. If he goes on the DL it can be retroactive to yesterday. But how many games will Posada lose by not starting him on the DL when he was first injuried?
Ensberg is truly an emergency catcher. If you put him in a close game, it could easily lead to a loss. I don't think you can play that fast and loose.
11 I see what you['re saying, but it is almost like saving the closer for extra innings in case you get the lead. How many times in the course of two weeks should the team expect to PH for Molina? If it's no more than one or two, then I'm not sure carrying another BUC is worth the roster spot.
Yes, playing Ensberg in a close game is not smart. but, how many close games will there be? How often would he play? He is the emergency C, and to some degree I see this as an emergency situation: that is, he might see some playing time in one or two games depending on the circumstances, but it is not at all likely. Is that situation worth carrying Moeller for?
It is better, I think, to call up an extra BP arm for a number of days, since the BP has been heavily worked. Otherwise, just about anybody can be added who hits better than Moeller--perhaps a middle IF for late inning D?
As for Piazza thing, let's see how badly Po actually is hurt befor we rush to judgement. if he's out for more than a couple of weeks then yes. we need to think about something.
As for Molina, I'd imagine there is a good chance that you'd want to pinch hit for him in every close game. Also, in many way, it's exactly the opposite of saving your closer. Who knows when Molina will come up in a key spot. It could be the 5th, 7th or 9th. Having Moeller would allow Girardi to PH for Molina at the most opportune time. If the Yankees do not carry a BUC, it would pretty much limit PHing for Molina to very late game situations when an out means game over anyway.
Of course, no one can predict close games, but the Yankees have already playing a number of them. Three of the Yankees 4 wins have been close games, so I don't think that's a gamble I want to take.
Both were day-to-dayed, then played a liitle, stunk, missed games, day-to-dayed. And finally on the DL. Meanwhile, the team played essentially short-handed for numerous games before the players finally landed on the DL.
Sure, Jorge's a mega-millionaire playing for a billion dollar corporation, but he's also a guy whose son has had very serious health problems which may make his aches, or "dead" arm seem insignificant.
Every father's health is extremely important to him, and his family, but who among us rushes to the MRI tube when our shoulder barks? I imagine professional athletes who are used to playing banged up are even less likely to worry about their aches and pains.
The Yanks aren't playing shorthanded. They have players, and they'll make a more concrete plan when they know the extent of the injury. No sense worrying now as I see it.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this issue. I probably tend to err to the side of caution with an aging team, so I would invoke the DL sooner rather than later. I also tend to like a full bench, rather than use the bench for convalescence. But my way would no doubt hurt the team at times when a two or three day rest was turned into a 15 day DL every time a player had a booboo.
Sorry, but that's a ridiculous statement, especially when the comparison is with Jose Molina and his 65 OPS+. A 100 OPS+ in that case is two standard deviations better.
16 "It could be the 5th, 7th or 9th."
This is another ridiculous statement. You're seriously in favor of carrying Moeller so you can pinch hit for Molina in the 5th inning? So of the four AB's in a game, one goes to Molina, one to Duncan or Ensberg, and two to Moeller.
Sorry, but I'd much rather roll the dice with Piazza than with that insane scenario. Give him two or three ABs a game then bring in Molina for defense if it's close.
Now, if the Yankees have capable replacements at the ready, that's another question. With Jeter and Posada, however, I don't think that's the case.
Now, Jeter, I don't know. You have a better argument there. It depends on the severity of the strain. If its not a grade 1, I don't know what he's doing still on the roster, as a grade 2 or above will take at least a few weeks to heal.
However, I think you have an overall point, and its one Will Carroll has touched on. The Yankees in their training and medical approach are not as aggressive and modern as they could be. Certainly Sheffield should have been diagnosed and treated earlier than he was, ditto Jason.
Interesting point with Pettitte. Piazza is not all that bad of a DEF catcher. He blocks the plate well, wears his mitt on the proper hand, etc...he just has a very poor throw to 2b.
The Molinas must have a cousin somewhere, or a sister for that matter, sign em up, its in their Levis...
Also, you are assuming Piazza would sign a 10-day contract. Do you really think he'd be ok with that set-up. Regardless, I don't see how a 40 year old catcher will be able to jump right into games without tuning up. Piazza did a tune-up in the minors last year with Oakland, so why would this time be different?
28 I have no idea what that means.
29 You wouldn't pinch hit for Molina if the Yankees were done a few runs and the bases were loaded in the 5th? Casey Stengel used to do things like that all time. Of course, he also came by way of the Deegan and happened to win every year. Something tells me Girardi has a little Stengel in him.
32 That may have been true a few years ago, but at age 39 and a season removed from being a catcher, I don't Piazza is ready to jump right behind the plate.
It sucks that Posada might go on the DL for the first time in his career, but, as long as its only 15 days, I'm not too worried about a Molina-Moeller combo. Think of it as a 2-week slump for Jorge when he had Nieves as his backup. =) The Yanks have won games in those situations before.
So did Earl Weaver, with both Rick Dempsey and Mark Belanger.
Record in games in which player appeared (not necessarily started)
Player Wins Losses WPCT
Joe Girardi 230 149 .607
Jorge Posada 836 600 .582
John Flaherty 77 56 .579
Sal Fasano 16 12 .571
Todd Greene 18 16 .529
Chris Widger 11 10 .524
Kelly Stinnett 17 17 .500
Jose Molina 17 17 .500
Al Castillo 7 8 .467
Wil Nieves 15 20 .429
Dioner Navarro 2 3 .400
33 No, I wouldn't pinch hit for Molina in the fifth only to have Moeller get two ABs in the same game.
Let's say he has nothing. I suspect that's likely, because he last faced MLB pitching seven months ago. And, best I can tell, he only caught a couple of games last year, so he hasn't caught regularly since 2006.
Even if the Yanks release him, they still owe him all $390K. Even for the Yanks, that seems like a waste of money.
And, that assumes Piazza would sign for the minimum. I doubt he would, so let's make it an even million. Then it really becomes silly.
But given the huge risk Piazza is, exposing even the 40th guy on the 40 man seems like a waste. Especially for just two weeks.
Suppose Jorge is out for a month...
Besides, Piazza hasn't had Tony Pena to work with....
Now, if Posada goes down for much longer than that, then its a whole different ballgame. If that happens, I feel fair in saying the Yanks are screwed at catcher for that time. There is no spare part available that can come close to replacing Posada. I don't think Mauer will be easily available via trade.
So; losing Po, Jeter, and Giambi would be scary, but just losing one of them medium term, or multiple of them for short terms, ain't the end of the world.
I'll admit that I'm not sure the Yanks could have done anything about this so I'm really just whining here, (and it's hard to argue that they shouldn't have been recruiting all of the pitchers that they have) but weren't there ANY good catchers they could have drafted?
There are a few down in Tampa right now, and Cervelli was close had he not been hurt. None are Posada, but then Posada is a possible HoF caliber player. You can't just cultivate that. There's a lot of luck involved.
If Posada's shoulder is really messed up, it might be worth teaching him to play 1B a bit. Giambi isn't going to last, and it could keep him in the lineup, and as our emergency catcher. Then you could send down one of the DH/1B types and call up a backup catcher. I'm sure Girardi and Cash have thought of this as well.
42 Exactly. The Yankees would basically be throwing money away on the hopes that Piazza would (A) be able to cacth after not having done since 2006 and (b) beginning hitting without any tune-up. I think both assumptions are foolish.
46 Now you are talking about a long-term concern, not the short-term "10-day" solution you mentioned earlier. I can live with signing Piazza to a minor league contract, having him catch for 2 weeks in AAA and evaluating his condition from that point. Simply thrusting him onto the major league roster, however, makes no sense at all.
50 They have started drafting catchers (e.g., Montero and Cervelli). As 47 mentioned, you can't blame the Yankees for not forecasting Cervelli's injury. On Opening Day, the Yankees had a quality major league, back-up, minor league and deep prospect catcher. How many more can they have?
The fact is, we have no idea how long Jorge is out. And a bum shoulder is a bad sign from a catcher - as Jorge pointed out, they throw as much, if not more, than any pitcher. The point on Piazza is: It could be 10 days or thirty. It's a low-cost, potentially decent benefit move. Bring him in and see what he can do in limited playing time.
Yes, I'd much prefer three ABs from Molina than those same three from Moeller and Duncan, especially since Molina would continue to play defense. Unless you're going for offense, he's the catcher. And if you're going for offense, you might as well really go for it with Piazza.
Neither Cervelli nor Montero were drafted.
Moeller is also a solid defensive catcher...the drop off from Molina is not great. If you'd prefer to not take advantage of a high leverage offensive situation, that up to you.
As we suspected, this will all come down to the pitching. So far the pen has been good. If the starters can hold down the fort, we can survive April, get Jeter and Po back to healthy and then start to click. If the kids crumble, Moose gets shelled and Andy has problems, well then, its all a moot point.
58 And I'm supposed to be excited by his 3 OPS+ in 2007 or his 29 OPS+ in 2006? Yeah, exchange three ABs at 65 OPS+ for one at 100 OPS+ and 2 at 20 OPS+. That makes a ton of sense.
52 As for the catchers you mentioned:
Suzuki was a 2nd round pick in 2004. Would the Yanks rather have him over Brett Smith, who they picked to start that round? Probably yes. Over Yovani Gallardo or Hunter Pence, taken after Smith but before Suzuki? No way.
Martin was drafted in the 17th round in 2002. I think its safe to say he was a find. Expecting the Yanks to have somehow known this at the time is silly.
The Yanks couldn't have taken McCann in 2002 (he was a 2nd round pick) because they didn't pick until after the Braves had taken him (no 1st round picks due to signing Giambi). (The real loss there was Curtis Granderson, who went 9 picks after the Yanks selected a pitcher named Brandon Weeden.)
Salty - yeah, that would have been nice. The Yanks could have had him instead of Eric Duncan. Or Adam Jones, or Daric Barton. I wish they had actually been paying attention in the draft back then.
Also, I think you need to explore the notion of small sample size as well as come to grips with the idea of leverage. All at bats are not equal. With a PH, a manager has the ability to use a better option at the most opportune time. For some reason, you can't seem to grasp that concept.
The Yankees have a few prospects at C and SS who could contribute when Jeter and Posada's contracts run out. I'm sure they'll keep drafting at those positions as well. You can't blame the team if Posada gets hurt, as we've all said, he's irreplaceable. If they had anyone as good waiting in the wings, then why the hell isn't he starting half the games anyways?
Now, I agree that the Yankees aren't likely to do much better than Molina as a replacement. That's why I find losing Posada for any length of time to be such a scary prospect. (FWIW, I think the dropoff from Jeter to Betemit is considerably less than from Posada to Molina.)
1. Very few managers will PH in the third or fifth inning, even if it is a high leverage situation. we may wish they would, and we may harken back to Earl Weaver and Casey Stengel, but that doesn't change current managerial dogma.
2. Part of leverage is also opportunity. Based loaded two out in the eight is a much higher leverage situation than based loaded two out in the third or fifth, for the very reason that there are fewer opportunities left in the former. So, one may PH for Moline (for example) in the fifth, but doing so does in fact bear the additional cost of losing his bat later in the game.
Now, the drop off may be irrelevant (is Moeller really much worse than Molina?), and one may calculate that the run-scoring opportunity in the fifth is more valuable than the two or three subsequent ABs that you know you are getting from that spot in the line-up. But the cost must be part of the calculation.
With the tenuous state of Jorge the last few years, they should have been signing one catching prospect every damn year.
Ask the Pirates :)
Navarro was signed in 2000, as a 16 year old.
Cervelli was signed in 2003, as a 16 year old.
They waited until 2007 to change that "strategy".
Your only support for that argument is that, for many years after taking Parrish #1 in 2000, they did not draft any other catchers in the first few rounds. That is a fact. However, that action could be explained by many things other than "irrational fear" - things that are themselves supportable by evidence.
If you want to argue that the Yanks drafted poorly in those years because they didn't properly evaluate players, or didn't fund the player development side of things adequately, or because the draft was (wrongly) considered unimportant, you'll get nothing but agreement from me. There's plenty of evidence for those things. But "irrational fear" is pure speculation on your part.
Seriously, between Parrish in 2000 and Romine in 2007, can any one name one catcher they drafted?
Chad Moeller's career OPS+ is 60, infalted by a 114 and a 93 in back-to-back seasons (age 27 and 28) with the D-Backs. His last four years have been 49, 61, 29, and 3. Yes, 3.
Molina's career OPS+ is 64, but his last four years have been 76, 70, 65, and 61. He has played much more consistently than Moeller (three or four times the ABs).
At this point, Molina is a sold BUC, Moeller is not even that. And I would hazard that given ABs, Moeller would in fact hit worse at this stage of his career than Molina. Maybe not much worse, but maybe Wil Nieves worse.
So yeah, I would hesitate to PH for Molina in the fifth if it meant two or three ABs by Moeller.
From the looks of it, he split time @ 2b & C when he was @ Oneonta. Then became a full time catcher @ G'boro (with a handful of games @ 3b).
There's probably an interesting story behind the move, but from the looks of it he was a pretty bad 2b.
2001, 21st round - Omir Santos
2001, 25th round - Harold M Edwards
2001, 32nd round - Aaron G Edwards
2001, 36th round - Fernando Fuentes
2002, 18th round - Luis A Robles
2002, 36th round - Doug A Boone
2003, 31st round - Joe Larman
2003, 37th round - Blakely W Murphy
2003, 49th round - David A Ferazza
2003, 50th round - Michael A Muscato
2004, 1st round - Jonathan D Poterson
2004, 7th round - Alex C Garabedian
2004, 13th round - Peter J Pilittere
2004, 40th round - Nathan Griffin
2005, 12th round - Joseph M Muich
2005, 18th round - Joseph G Burke
2005, 21st round - Hanseld Diaz
2005, 23rd round - Matthew Wallach
2005, 25th round - Bradley G Canada
2005, 50th round - Blake W Heym
2006, 24th round - Brian M Baisley
2006, 29th round - Orlando I Torres
2006, 30th round - Brock Ungricht
2006, 44th round - James Lasala
2006, 47th round - Charles C Smith
We can debate tactical considerations (better to draft a C early, or try to grab one late? Curtis Thigpen was a second round pick who failed; Russell Martin was a 17th round pick who succeeded; etc.) another time. Or whether any of these guys drafted were "prospects"; or if its possible to consistently identify catching "prospects" who actually go on to become major league catchers. But your question was:
"Besides Parrish, name one catcher they drafted."
88 Poterson, taken in the 1st round in 2004, might have been considered a prospect too.
Still, tommyl is right in 90 - its not fair to define a prospect as a guy drafted in the 1st or 2nd round. Plenty of guys develop into prospects despite being drafted later, and plenty of guys drafted at the top never pan out.
Have the Yanks dealt with the issue of finding a replacement for Posada well? Probably not, but that's what happens when you ignore the draft for years.
But, finding a replacement for Posada has not been the only need over the years, either. And I think you're over-simplifying the issue by arguing "With the tenuous state of Jorge the last few years, they should have been signing one catching prospect every damn year."
Nice idea in theory, hard to practice. Shoot, with all the creaky outfielders, and pitchers, and no relievers beyond Mo to speak of, your logic suggests the Yanks should have been signing OF, SP, and RP prospects by the boatload too. Problem is, there are only so many prospects to go around, and the org's needs have been a lot more varied than "making sure we have an adequate replacement for Posada".
90 Just for the record, here are the catchers the Yankees have drafted from 2000-2007 (prior to Round 30).
2007: Austin Romine – 2nd Round
2006: Brian Baisley -24th Round
2005: Joseph Muich - 12th Round; Joseph Burke – 18th Round; Hanseld Diaz- 21st Round; Matthew Wallach- 23rd round
2004: Jonathan Poterson – 1st Round (3rd catcher over all); Alex Garabedian – 7th Round
2003: Joe Larman – 31st Round
2002: Luis Robles – 18th Round;
2001: Omir Santos ; 21st Round
2000: David Parrish; 1st Round (2nd overall); Clinton Chauncey - 18th Round
To the extent that they've had any difficulty finding a 64 OPS+ backup, it reflects an organizational failure, not an inherent difficulty in finding one.
I now feel very confident in saying the position was almost completely neglected from 2001-2006.
Sorry, but that's exactly what they've done in 2006 and 2007. If only it had been happening as early as 2003.
"It shouldn't be any harder to get someone better than Moeller than it was to get Molina last year."
Except it's been exactly that hard - for five years.
As for what happened to 2003, for example, well, of all the catchers drafted that year, only four have made it to the majors: Daric Barton, Mitch Maier and Salty (all first rounders) and Ryan Garko (3rd round). Considering that Barton and Garko are no longer catchers, that leaves two.
Between the first ten rounds of the draft and international signings, I'd say it's not a stretch to have one good catching prospect every year. And of course, if the system seems full (like right now), you take one year off.
It seems they're doing something similar with SS right now. And they damn well should be. They should be drafting another high ceiling SS this year too.
104 No...let's draw conclusions from sample sizes of 50 ABs. That makes a lot more sense.
Molina's value is his just barely passable offense and his fine defense. He could start - for secondtier teams. He chose to be a backup on a championship caliber team.
116 Can't wait to see what 118 is, but that was meant for 108
115 My only point is that they weren't even trying. The evidence backs that up. Whereas you said:
"They have drafted and signed even more as Posada has grown older...that's also a fact, not to mention a very good idea. " 95
Apart from 2007, that's not remotely true.
BTW - Pete just said that Torre used to say, "You take what Jeter says and add a day . . . (I'm paraphrasing now) When Jeter had minor inuries, Torre used to, against Jeter's wishes, hold him out an extra day." I don't remember this as being true at all; I remember the opposite - Jeter coming back too quickly. Anyone want to go through the game logs and see how often Jeter missed two games in a row? =)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/04/padres-interest.html
As for giving Jeter two (or more) games off in a row: he didn't do it last year, but he did it 6 times in the three preceding years.
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