Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The IRT was all busted this morning so I took the express bus into Manhattan instead. Along the way, we passed by the two Yankee Stadiums on the Major Deegan. The night work lights were still on in the new park, though the sky behind it was already bright, the sun reflecting off the red and yellow cranes that stick up into the sky. I've always gotten a rush passing the Stadium on the Major D. The park practically sticks out onto the highway, like a big, round jaw. The new stadium receeds into the background, and isn't nearly as dramatic. Still, it's coming along, like it or not. Pretty soon, the final year at the old location will begin, and before you know it, it will be but a memory.
The guys over at River Ave. Blues have been diligently charting the progress of the new stadium. If you are interested, I suggest you stop by and pay them a visit.
Meanwhile, Hank Steinbrenner appears to be cooling on the idea of trading for Johan Santana. According to Peter Botte in the News:
"We went into this with me making the final baseball decisions and Hal more addressing the financial aspects of the company, but we both do everything," Steinbrenner said yesterday in a phone interview. "We're equal partners, but at this point, to tell you the truth, I'm leaning away from it anyway, so it doesn't matter. Same thing with Brian, he's another integral part of it, obviously, being the general manager, and one day he's leaning to do it and the next day he's not sure."But what it comes down to right now is giving up a lot (in a trade) and then having to do the big contract, as well. If (Santana) was just a free agent, we could just go ahead and do it. There's a big difference this way. We have to sign him as if he's a free agent, plus you have to give up major talent. That's a tall order."
..."I don't know what he'd even want, or what they'd settle for. I don't know. We obviously haven't talked to him or his agent, so I have no idea," Steinbrenner said. "But a six- or seven-year extension, no, I wouldn't do that."
Aaron Gleeman would rather the Twins get Phillip Hughes over Jacoby Ellsbury.
The other thing that makes the deal questionable from the Yankees stand point is that they'd be giving up pitching prospects. Because Santana is also a pitcher, the loss of Hughes and Kennedy/Marquez would mitigate against the obvious improvement. The Red Sox and Mets, however, are giving up position players as the primary elements of their respective deals.
Unfortunately for the Yankees, the chance that the Red Sox could get Santana is enough to counteract all the other elements that scream do not make this deal. The latest rumor is that the Mets could have Santana if they'd include Martinez in the deal. I am sure the Yankees are hoping Minaya makes that concession.
Come on Omar, Santana's even Latino!
Oh, and Hank is throwing himself open to a tampering charge here. Maybe he should get a two year ban, it worked the last time a Steinbrenner got suspended. . .
And Hank still needs to STFU. He's really getting on my nerves.
I think I've been pretty consistent in this in that I believe chances are best that JS will stay in Mn this year and we will (attempt to?) pay a king's ransom for him as a FA next November. If Hank and the boys have their druthers they'll continue to do this dance for a while longer until JS says "...too late I'm not waiving my no-trade now that ST is here". The madness will re-erupt around the waiver deadline but unless MN is burried in the standings I don't see it as a more likely event then.
It's old and played but it beats steroids 9 ways till Sunday.
I'm not suggesting Britney Spears has a better knack for maintaining custody of kids, but doesn't it seem the more Hank tries to talk himself out of the trade, the more likely it is he'll go through with it?
I'm not suggesting the man doesn't have a longterm plan, and well-defined goals, but would it surprise anyone if Hank announced today he's going to finally settle this epic organizational debate over a game of air hockey?
"I win, we get Santana. Cash wins, he takes the kids to Disney."
I don't think the debate, both internally among the Yanks fo or among fans about Santana is going to fully go away until if/when he is moved. I would take wsporter's notion one step further - I think if anyone (Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Sox, Yanks) really wanted him they would have had him by now. I don't get the sense it is really the Twins holding things up (but could very well be wrong) - but basically exactly what Hank said - it is the double price of prospects and cash that no one wants to pay in the current landscape. One interesting part is whether Santana would rather wait and hit the open market or be traded and have the security of the extension now.
Look at the return for, say, Texiera, Haren, Miggy Cabrera, maybe Bedard, and clearly teams are valuing the dollars and length on the contract. Obviously, this is isn't surprising, but maybe there is a lesson here. If you have a guy that's going to cost SO much money, e.g. Johan, you've got to at least give teams a couple years of his services. Those years you trade don't have to be cheap (like Haren's are), but these days teams wont trade a huge haul for a short rental. Maybe the Alfonso Soriano non-trade should have been read in this light (instead of reading it as Bowden's incompetence/greed). So maybe what I'm saying is that more and more teams are taking a longer term view of things.
A query, has anyone considered what Yanks would likely DO for CF with Melky gone? Back when I thought they'd add one of the decent CFs, and be forced to factor that into cost (50 million for 5 years for Rowand, or some such). Who is left now? Damon Rides Again? Surely, surely not!
And finally, since I can't leave it: I am SO glum about Congress jumping in. My whole hope for Mitchell, as some here will remember, was that the report would force Selig and Fehr to get busy, going forward, not looking back, to forestall Congress ... looks like that's just not gonna happen. The circus begins and it'll be ugly.
It will definitely be weird to go to a new Yankee Stadium, but it will be fun if it feels like part of the Bronx. Hopefully, the Yankees can create a destination like the Sox did opening up Yawkey way to fans during the game.
Any chance the Twins get desperate and make a deal without Hughes (Melky, IPK, Horne)?
15 I am really not trying to sound like a jerk - because I agree with your hope to move forward - but that was wishful thinking. The fact that the Mitchell report focused so much on supposed ped users from the past rather than the current flaws made that near impossible, coupled with the big fish of Clemens, and the congressional circuses rarely seem to operate in real time - that is examining the current issue.
16 I think your paranthetical captures the Twins thinking - they are hoping some team (most likely the Yanks in their view) will get desperate and need Sanatna in June/July and overspend for him.
Further, Twins need to assume the candidates are all in the hunt come July and ready to mortgage at a HIGHER level than now. It is a decent wager NY and Boston and Mets are all in there, but not a lock given that:
18 Predictions are a mug's game, but I think the Twin roster (even with Liriano in his first, and usually shaky, postsurgery year) isn't even on the same field as the seriously improved Tigers and the young and very strong Indians. No wildcard comfort in the AL east this year.
My guess is, this is how Bill Smith sees his team. "We can compete in the Central, but only due to our pitching, because the Tigers and Indians can definitely outhit us. But that's OK, we're a pitching and defense kind of team. We have the best closer in the division, the best bullpen, and with Johan and Liriano, we have the best 1-2 punch, maybe in the league." GMs, especially new GMs, especially of teams that were close to or did compete last year, are an optimistic bunch. Billy Beane is the rare exception.
I would be shocked if Smith trades his team's best chance at competing in the Central. I think the Twins keep Santana.
Slice, that's just mean. :-)
22 If you are not in love with the prospects being offered now, you don't have to get a BETTER deal in the midseason. Having a chance at success in 2008 would be compensation for the lesser package, unless of course things like success are not nearly as important as the bottom line.
23 With Santana and Liriano fronting a strong bullpen, the Twins could very well win the division if Mauer and Morneau have seasons more like 2006 than 2007. While the Indians are a very nice team, they aren't without question marks, namely is Fausto Carmona really an ace. Keep in mind that the Indians essentially won with a league average offense, a strong bullpen and two stud pitchers. That sounds like a best case scenario for the 2008 Twins.
As for the Tigers, I am not all that sure they improved themselves much. Their pitching staff is still questionable and, while Cabrera is a huge addition, I also think Mags is due for a huge correction, which would offset some of the gain.
If not, maybe he'd place a friendly wager with us, put his money where his mouth is.
The rest of the rotation is lousy. I like what Delmon Young might become, but I'm not confident he's there yet. In the best case, he'd give them a 5-man lineup followed by a huge dropoff.
The Tigers and Indians have questions, sure, but the Twins have bigger questions. If the Twins' answers are all "Yes" and the other teams get all "No," Minnesota will be right there. Otherwise, I don't see it.
But man, that lineup stinks. Rowand, Randy Winn and...
Christensen says Mets owner Fred Wilpon gave Omar Minaya the green light to try to acquire Santana, meaning he's amenable to a contract extension exceeding $100MM.
That made me smile even more. I know I'm letting some fanboy creep into my objectivity, but I simply love Phil Hughes. I've been following him since he was drafted. He's a kid with ace potential, he's pitched in the playoffs in NY well and he reports to work early!
[ducks]
[ducks]
As for Mags, I am not sure how safe a bet it is to think that a 34 year old will revert permanently to his prime. The bigges difference I see with Mags 2007 campaign was his .363 BA, which was over 40 points higher than his career high. Considering that BA is one of the more arbitrary stats, I think a significant regression is definitely a strong possibility.
Willis, Verlander, Bonderman - most publications/sites have them in the top 5 in starting staffs in all of baseball - which part were you 'questioning', exactly?
1) Willis: He is coming off a season with a 5.17 ERA and has seen his peripherals decline over the last three seasons.
2) Bonderman: He has a career ERA+ of 93 (91 last season). He has had only one season above league average. He also ended last season with concerns about the health of his shoulder.
3) Bullpen - Jones will 40 and Zumaya could miss most of the year.
When you consider that Willis and Bonderman are the Tigers #2 and #3 (not #4 and #5), I don't see how anyone could suggest they are top-5 in baseball. Not only do Bonderman and Willis have to significantly reverse recent trends (in Bonderman's case, a career long trend), but guys like Rogers, Maroth, Robertson, etc. have to find away to be above league average. I just don't see the Tigers having a very good pitching staff, especially now the Jurjens and Miller are out of the mix.
I'm sure we could come up with an SAT question Kyle could understand ...
"Robbie Reliever doesn't like to relieve on consecutive days, stating that his back tightens up. His co-workers, Stanley Setup, Claudio Closer, Lenny Longman and Manny Mopup are all capable of pitching on consecutive days. If Robbie's team has to play games on 20 consecutive days (as per the collective bargaining agreement) ...
a) what is the maximum number of games Robbie can appear in?
b) what is the minimum number of games it will take before Robbie's manager, Billy Bullpenbalancer, gives Robbie a stern talking to?
c) which team will Robbie be dealt to for a low level minor league catching prospect?
Extra Credit: In the same scenario, how many sets of equipment can Robbie Reliever light on fire in the given time period?
Extra Extra Credit: Describe whether this reaction is endothermic or exothermic.
touche !
Dear "Mythbusters" ....
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8484396@N08/sets/
Meanwhile, the new mall is going up right across the street from my office (the site of the old Terminal Market and House of Detention). Going up surprisingly fast, too.
The Yankees were saying they wouldn't bring in a starting center fielder even if they dealt Melky Cabrera, but that was just more deception. It is a surprise that they'd perhaps put in a bid for Cameron before trading Cabrera. Rosenthal seems to believe that Cabrera could go to Cubs, Reds, Braves, Royals or Pirates in return for prospects. The Cubs also have some level of interest in Cameron, but he's more likely to get multiple years elsewhere. "
If true, a possible answer to my question of yesterday about CF. Would mean Melky's gone, also, either for Santana, or in another deal.
"The Yankees front office has indicated that they are happy with their current first base situation. Part of that situation is Wilson Betemit (1B/3B, NYY). Betemit will be 27 years old in 2008, and his PX rose from 139 in 2006 to 167 last season. That increase in PX was accompanied by a rising fly ball rate, making Betemit a prime breakout candidate if he gets enough AB. We are projecting 243 AB and 15 HR at the moment, but if circumstances lead to 400 AB, Betemit could hit 25 HR. He's worth tucking away at the right price."
Lane signed to minor league deal.
There's even a movie blog (actually more of a link farm) that provides a (now) dead link to the original review. 134 indeed.
72 I am interested to see what happens with the arb eligibles - specifically if the Yanks try to lock up Wang and Cano long term the way many other teams do or if they continue to go the usual route.
2007-10-26 12:49:40
133. Yankee Fan In Boston
126 127 don't go inside alone, joe! don't be a hero!
2007-10-26 12:50:31
135. Yankee Fan In Boston
131 132 that would've blown my mind.
78 And yes, it was also a Friday.
But now the review is back.
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