Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
From Buster Olney's column today over at ESPN.com:
Heard this: If all goes well in spring training for the Yankees, Joba Chamberlain is likely to start next season in the Yankees' bullpen, as part of the team's effort to limit his innings. Chamberlain will go to spring training and, at the outset, prepare to pitch out of the rotation, along with five other rotation candidates: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina and Ian Kennedy. Assuming that none of the other five has a physical or performance breakdown, Chamberlain would then open 2008 in the bullpen, as a set-up man, for at least the start of the season -- under the Joba Rules.The Yankees want to restrict the number of innings Chamberlain throws, and working him out of the bullpen for at least a couple of months will allow them to do that. Chamberlain may return to the rotation sometime in the middle of the season, depending on the Yankees' needs.
I can't imagine the thought of Chamberlain pitching out of the pen next season will sit well with many of you. Whatta ya hear, whatta ya say?
Stupid.
If you're going to put him back in the bullpen to limit his innings, do it for the end of the season. It'll take weeks (and be very risky) to gear him up to start after three months of relief.
I can't shake the dread that the idea of making Joba "the next Mariano Rivera" will ruin him.
This has to be a joke. Unnamed sources indeed. I can't believe the Yanks would jerk him around like that.
And if he does start the year in the 'pen, what happens to the curveball and change? They'll continue to rot, I suppose.
Alright, I'm done.
But the organization probably does not have the patience for this, and instead will be tempted to use him more as a situational reliever. Great, one of the best pitching prospects in the game will be turned into a glorified set-up man. And how will this help him develop as a starter down the road?
And even if this is the plan, what are the odds that Wang, Pettitte, Kennedy, Hughes and Mussina all break camp healthy? One of that group will probably tweak something, at which point Joba is the 5th starter.
There, don't you feel more relaxed now?
Put him through spring training as a starter. Then he starts the season in the bullpen. For the next couple of months he pitches one inning at a time, maybe three times a week, using only two pitches. By mid-June he'll have 30 or so IP under his belt, so the next move is obvious: have him start pitching six innings every fifth day, using two more pitches he hasn't thrown since March.
Come on, people. This is the textbook way to handle a valuable young arm. What's all the fuss?
I hope this is just a smokescreen. Maybe it's to lead the writers off the scent of Santana, and we'll get a lump of Johan in our stockings next week...
and then I finally picked up on the sarcasm that is dripping from your post. =) Well played!
Yeesh. Obviously new to these internets.
Do we have another SP coming via trade?
And it isn't different if we get Santana, because we will be losing Hughes.
Did I just say that?
SAVE PHIL HIGHES!
This seems to be a new low for Buster; must be a slow holiday season.
If they wanted to pitch him in long relief, that would be a different thing. Even if the other five starters all pan out, Hughes and Kennedy will need some limits on their IP, and Moose may well be a 5-inning starter. There would be opportunities for Joba to pitch 2-3 innings at a time, and even get the occasional spot start.
That seems like a reasonable and prudent way to use him. He'd get in some real pitching, it wouldn't undermine his development as a starter, and he could move into the rotation later in the year if they needed him to.
The Smoltz and Wakefield comparisons don't really stand up. Both had been used almost exclusively as starters before being moved to the BP. Smoltz was basically never used as a reliever and starter in the same season. Wakefield only did it for three seasons, in his early 30s.
Year, Games (starts), innings, inn/g
2000, 30 (5), 86, 2.9
2001, 15 (4), 43, 2.9
2002, 27 (14), 108, 4.0
2003, 45 (18), 158, 3.5
http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php?p=3955284#post3955284
What is wrong with you people? People,Do you really believe anything from ESPN? In my opinion, their opinion lacks any merit. All is rumor mongering and doing PR for the Saux. Let's chill and let the moves be made in Spring Training and during the regular season, plus official transactions on Yankees.com/. They will always publish info adverse to the Yankees. I only pray to God that the Yanks start kicking ass and winning back to back championships and to notice the face of desperation on their smug aloof faces!!!
Go Yankeees!!!
They are very simple to apply and while they give you some less than optimal matchups on some days you have to tolerate that negative in order to reap the benefits of always having fresh pitchers on the mound who have less chance of injury.
The NBA don't play their best players 48 minutes a game. San Antonio has sub-optimal matchups whenever Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, or Manu Ginobli are off the floor but they have found keeping the players fresh for the playoffs is a good recipe for success. They'd rather lose the odd game in the regular season relying on their depth than go into the playoffs tired. It's slightly different because it's so much easier to make the NBA playoffs compared to MLB.
If Joba develops into a good starter - not even necessarily a great one - he's much more valuable there than in the bullpen. If not, I don't think there will be any issues moving him back into the pen. He doesn't look like confidence is going to be a real problem.
1st half: 3 IPs * 20 APs = 60 IPs over 81 games, or 1 AP every 4 games
2nd half: 6 IPs * 15 starts = 90 IPs over 81 games... or basically the 5th starter for the entire 2nd half (asuming his spot is skipped once)
This seems to me to be pretty reasonable.
To limit his innings, we trade 1 start for 2 APs in the BP. I think that he may contribute almost as much to 'Wins' in this manner as a traditional starter.
Also, hasn't Joba pitched, or started very few games/IPs in Pro ball? Is it that bad an idea to give him a little more experience in the BP before becoming a full time starter? I mean he looks great so far, but he has very little 'Pro seasoning'.
The other alternative is 2 innings (for IPK and Hughes, for example) TWICE every cycle.
This would be 16 (rotations) x 2IPs x 2 APs or 64 IPs total. Still in sinc with what we want from his first half.
It's like taking A-rod and making him a pinch hitter because the manager would then be able use him in the most important situations.
Losing the odd game in the NBA doesn't matter because you have to actively try to not make the NBA playoffs. In Major League Baseball, those odd games can actually lost you the playoffs.
Does a bullpen composed entirely of pitchers operating on Joba Rules outperform a standard a traditional bullpen over 162 games? My guess is 'Yes, it does'.
If we miss the playoffs by two games because we allowed Kyle Farnsworth to pitch when [someone competent] was living and breathing, I'll lose my mind.
The open question is whether enforced rest squeezes better performance out of the pen than matchups without regard to rest.
I see four options:
A. Let Joba start from the beginning of the season and shut him down before he can pitch in September, much less the playoffs.
B. Let Joba start and pitch until his arm falls off.
C. Sit Joba for the beginning of the season and keep his innings down.
D. Limit Joba's innings by using him partially out of the bullpen.
Aside from a BP to starter plan, there is no way to way to use Joba for the entire season that wouldn't be highly likely to result in arm injuries this year, next year, or the year after.
Besides, regardless of who pitches in the role, long relief to Moose and the other young pitchers is going to be necessary for the Yankees. Why not kill two birds with one stone? I'd tell Joba: "You can expect that you will be pitching long relief with some spot setup work if everyone in the rotation pitches lights out that week. And if there is an injury to a starter or two, expect to move into the rotation sooner rather than later."
Moving Joba into the pen at the end of the year makes no sense. Aside from the fact that you may be losing a solid playoff starter, you will be interrupting his flow into 2009.
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