Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Christmas is approaching, and the Yankees have yet to buy fans their big offseason present. Because they haven’t cannonballed into the deep end and splashed everyone at the pool party, media types are circling like starving wolverines, bandying theories about why the Yankees will or won’t be successful in 2008.
The Detroit Tigers were the news, with their acquisition of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. Thanks to Steve Phillips and fellow Ithaca College alum Karl Ravech, I know the AL pennant will return to Motown in ‘08. Do the Tigers have a great lineup and a solid top three starting rotation? Sure. Does any of that guarantee even a wild-card? Ask the Pittsburgh Steelers how their guarantee worked out last week.
The Tigers included a top-flight prospect in Andrew Miller to get Cabrera and Willis. They were willing to mortgage some of their future to get two bona fide All-Stars. The Yankees weren’t willing to do the same, and they’re left Sans-tana. Depending on what you read and who you believe, the Yankees’ firm stance of conservatism is the correct approach. Newsday's Wally Matthews goes so far as to say it’s making them likeable. Do Yankee fans want the team to be likeable outside the bounds of New York and Boston?
Maybe the key to that is Joba Chamberlain, ESPN Magazine’s newest cover boy and the winner of ESPN.com’s fan poll of the young star will have the greatest impact on the 2008 sporting landscape. With triple-digit power on his fast ball and a slider that dances like a wiffleball in a 20 mile-per-hour gust, it’s not a stretch. Maybe people just like his name. Look at all the fun we had with it in this space when he burst onto the scene in August.
I still maintain the young Cornhusker could make a bigger impact by remaining a devastating set-up man for Rivera and eventually inheriting that role. But the LaTroy Hawkins signing all but assures the Joba Plan involves pitching every fourth day. That is, unless Brian Cashman does a 180 on his public support of Kyle Farnsworth and deals the reliever. This is the same man who was 100 percent positive Bubba Crosby was the Yankees’ 2006 starting center fielder, until he signed Johnny Damon for that job six weeks before spring training.
* * *
Elsewhere, the Winter Meetings coverage was bland. I’ll admit, I lost interest myself when the Yankees announced they were withdrawing their entry in the Santana Sweepstakes.
The lefty’s situation is reminiscent of Alex Rodriguez’s four years ago, between the posturing, the interested teams involved, and the hype surrounding his next destination. Would anyone else be shocked if the Yankees, after months of lying in the weeds, landed him in a blockbuster deal right before Spring Training, as they did with A-Rod?
Until that happens, the faux deadlines of Hank Steinbrenner and “doors are still open for Santana” stories will dominate coverage. And since it wouldn't be a Yankees offseason without trade rumors, stories like the ones that surfaced regarding Hideki Matsui will continue. It's the cycle of the Yankees Hot Stove, which right now, is on low heat.
Next week … Mitchell Report fallout, and a friendly game of Where In the World Is Johan Santana?
I've got no problem with that. To me, it's ok to state that "A" is what we're going with, but still look around to see if there's an upgrade.
Same with Santana; it's ok to make a deal for him but I just don't want to rape the farm system for him. I'd rather have a team with a bunch of very good players than one with a couple of superstars and a bunch of pieces. Of course the Yankees won't be that bad, I just don't want a return to the 1980s. Ugh.
This will probably be in Alex's post today, but I have to mention it anyway. Warning to Mattpat: this article might give you an aneurysm. http://tinyurl.com/yvphbo
My favorite line: "O'Connell said Pavano was concerned because he was only 11 days from accruing 10 years' service time in the majors and thus a full pension." Excuse me? By next year this guy will have stolen - er, "earned" - almost $50 million, and he's worried about his pension?
For that matter: if Pavano can pitch again, he'll get those 11 days. So he's concerned about accruing ML service time even if he can't pitch anymore. As if he hasn't already stolen enough service time, either...
and a 180 on farns is would be nice - even a sharp right turn.
i wonder how much impact the media - especially someone like espn - has on influencing trades - their coverage of the potential santana trade with the yanks and red sox offers was their usual slant.
3 that carl is always one step ahead.
It's easy to outspend other teams. I personally would like out-planning and out-thinking to be the priority, and then use our money in the most efficient manner.
oyf talked about the "hierarchy" or "pyramid" of who was being investigated the other day - and this aticle indicates that the owners are being given a pass - while the management and obviously the players are the main ones being held accountable
It's non-tender day. Matt Wise is supposedly going to be NTed by the Brewers, if he hasn't been already. Worth taking a shot? Not sure what other relievers might hit the market.
How about this game for a little pre-Mitchell fun. Let's all go on record with one surprise name that we think will appear in the report. My candidate is Jose Reyes.
Prior to A-Rod returning I was in favor of signing him as I thought it was the only conceivable way to replace that middle of the order production. The idea of replacing Matsui with him makes some sense, too. I doubt the Yankees will go there, but it's not a bad idea.
It should be fun finding out, and arguing over where the dividing line between the value of ~75 innings of (spectacular) relief and ~200 innings of starting is. Obviously if he's spectacular as a starter, this is no debate (and I think we all hope that happens). But if he's merely "pretty good" well, then it will be interesting.
my speculation led me to think what i wrote - since someone (arod) would need only 8 more hrs than aaron to break bond's record if he never plays again - and i would think the powers that be don't want bonds adding any more hrs to his total
if matsui is traded i do wonder where that leaves things. it doesn't seem wise to bank on giambi being healthy the entire year. as someone (maybe yankz) pointed out yesterday - shelley's health issues seem pretty serious and no telling how and how long that will effect him.
so 1b/dh still seems very much a need.
As far as surprise names in the report, here are my picks with my estimated odds.
1) David Eckstein : (HGH) 4000-1
2) Darin Erstad: (Mainlining Grit and Hustle for the past 12 years) 1:1
3) Rocco Baldelli.
Bernie doesn't strike me as a candidate because his career path pretty much followed the pre-steroid era player. If he was using steroids, boy did they not work.
I am a big Yankees fan, and I have to SERIOUSLY question the entire setup and contention of this column, Yanky Panky #35.
The very first sentence of this column, and I quote, "Christmas is approaching, and the Yankees have yet to buy fans their big offseason present."
Really??? Now I'm not saying nothing else will happen, but the Yankees HAVE spent $400 million so far this offseason, all on guys who had already hit the free agent market.
And speaking of those free agents, where on this year's list of free agents did Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada rank?
Had the Dodgers gone out and spent $400 million to sign Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, and Jorge Posada (and they could have, by the way. Again, all three were free agents into the signing period), would anybody be saying the Dodgers "have yet to buy fans their big offseason present."???
25 these wouldn't be a surprise; that wouldn't happen (would be a surprise)
bernie would be a huge shock and disappointment. but the biggest for yankee fans would be mo, i think.
"Most teams, especially the NYYankees had players using steroids & HGH. Only the plucky Red Sox had a system in place to guard against steroid users & thus maintain the purity of the game. When the RS thought certain players were using steroids (Damon, Clemens)they made sure to get rid of them."
Not that I think Sen. Mitchell would be biased, simply because he's associated with them.
Bonds - whatever.
Jeter - whatever.
Eckstein - whatever.
Tris Speaker - whatever.
And I've been mostly out of the loop, but just heard somewhere that the Phillies have some interest in Moose. It is eastern PA, so he should be comfortable there, it'd be kinda nice to move him.
On the surface, it does look like the Astros didn't get much, but Tejada seems to be a player in decline. The fact that he has been rumored as a steroid user doesn't help much either. Scott is a very nice bat (and may actually out hit Tejada this year), but at 29 years old is only a stop gap player. The young pitchers range from a rejuvenated bullpen arm to back-end of the rotation prospects, so it really does look more like a salary dump as well as addition by subtraction.
The Astros have no good starting pitching after Oswalt, and yet they trade away their two best young pitchers in Albers and Patton? They are going to try to bludgeon opposing teams to death - if its possible to do that while having a lineup including Ausmus, Adam Everett, Kaz Matsui, and a pitcher every day. "Roy and Wandy, they better be dandy!"
Sheesh. Ed Wade still has no clue. He probably thinks they'll win the division.
In the pre A-Rod re-signs days, I was very opposed to acquiring Tejada. Not just the steroid accusations (which I don't really care about except that Tejada's pre-2004 production may have been inflated), I was very dissuaded by Tejada's apparent lack of interest when playing the Yankees last year. I frequently saw him failing to run out pop-ups or weak grounders... and his fielding was just as lazy. Sure, it sucks to play for a loser like the Orioles, but I'd rather have players with good work ethics.
I have a feeling the Astros just got a giant lemon.
From the Orioles side, while they aren't really getting much more than stop gaps and end of roster filler, it is kind of addition by subtraction as well as a salary dump. Coming off a bad season and steroid implications, I am not sure that there would have been a bigger market for Tejada. You can question why the Orioles didn't deal Tejada sooner, but I don't think they could have gotten much more now.
I don't think Tejada was going to get back to his '04-'06 production in Baltimore, and while Albers and Patton may not seem like much, as they say with pitchers, youneverknow.
In any case, I do think Ed Wade (and Drayton McClane) think they just won the Astros the division with this deal, and I'm not convinced of that at all.
For one, I suggested swapping our #3 prospect for our #1 prospect, and suggested making up that difference with 2nd tier quality, but not our top 5 propects (they are alreay getting #3). It's funny that when we speak of Melancon, Betances and some of the others, we are excited. But when we talk of sending them to Minn, they become dregs.
I will say again that the Sox only offered only ONE of their 2nd or 3rd 'prospects', either Lester of Ellsbury. It just seems to me we should be able to put together an IPK package that is better then a Sox package.
Minn. was 29th of 30 in HRs. Shelly would have no value to them? As a little bonus? Sanchez? Somebody? Anybody but Phil?
I think there might be an IPK-based package that would interest the Twins, but if MN knows what it's doing (and generally speaking they do), they will know they need hitting more than they need pitching. Thus, for the Twins, Elsbury & Lowrie are more attractive than similiarly talented pitchers.
A Yankee package will be built around pitchers, and will thus have to overpay (hence Hughes). It sucks, but that's how I see it. Boston is simply in a better position to make the trade.
Cano, Melky, Kennedy, Farnsworth & prospect(s)
for
Santana and Nathan
We would probably have to absorb some of Farnsworth's worth (addition by subtraction and he could close for them with his 100 mph heater). I'd put Betemit at 2B (or sign Eckstein) and sign Rowand to play CF.
When I posted this the other day, Mattpat and William were against it. What say you, OYF?
Mitchell was a shill for Selig then, what's changed since?
I suppose I should wait to see the final product he'll present Thursday but his conflicts of interest regarding his ties to baseball and Disney makes me very skeptical.
I also tend to agree with Simone in 58 that there's no way ownership gets taken to task. Mitchell is, after all, Selig's friend, and Bud is no dummy. If it does anything at all, the Mitchell Report is going to give the owners plausible deniablility at the very least.
I also think the whole investigation has been a tremendous waste of time and resources. I haven't seen a total price tag, but I remember earlier in the year reports being that the investigation had cost in excess of $15M. That money would have been far better spent on education and research. Of course, education and research wouldn't have given names, and that's likely what this entire exercise has been about.
RED SOX WORLD CHAMPS 04 & 07!!!
I wonder if that makes a Matsui trade more or less likely. On the one hand, that's one less open outfield spot in SF. On the other, if the Giants are dumb enough to give Rowand five years, maybe Lincecum or Cain really could be had for a Matsui package.
I don't want to trade Hughes, but it seemed like if they wanted to make a deal, they should remove Melky from the package. He's probably not adding enough value for the Twins, while he is still pretty useful for the Yanks. If they wouldn't take Hughes, Melky, and Horne (wanted Horne and Jackson), then Hughes, Jackson, and Horne would probably get it done. I would go Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, +, maybe that would be a better starting point than Hughes, Melky +. Oh well, F it.
I'd love to see the breakdown of that bill. I imagine some folks at DLA Piper are very happy right now.
Out of the Box, yes! A good trade, I don't think so. First, I don't think Farns is much of an enticement. 2nd, Santana, + replace Cano and Melky is $45m/yr easy. 3rd, short of ARod, Cano will be our best hitter soon, and for years to come. 3rd, we are pitching rich, but position players short. I think Cano is too valuable. We don't need pitching that badly.
I don't want Santana that much. I'm against the trade in general, ESPECIALLY if it includes Phil.
1) "Hughes, Jackson, and Horne"
2) "Jackson, Kennedy, Horne, +"
#1 is 3 of our top 6, including our #1. Doesn't that almost define depleting the Farm?
#2 Ain't much better (or less worse) depending on who the "+" is. Tabata?
Remember that Santana will cost us $25m/yr for 6 years. As a FA... fine. But this trade... the price is too steep. I don't think we need him as much as we are afraid the Sox will get him.
I say "NO!" and pray a bit.
And in General, Jetes for 4 yrs, Posada for 3, Mo for 4 and ARod until Armegedeon. We are already in for 'overpaid, aging vets'. We must be careful about going any further in that direction. We must stay young, even if we give up a year or 2 of the PS.
I'm for keeping Hughes, but I acknowledge I could be wrong. The pro-trade group has valid points. I've yet to see a reasonable explanation of why trading Cano makes even the slightest bit of sense.
Maybe for Albert Pujols.
Santana would actually give the Skanks a chance to compete with the Sox...but let's be real hear as long as A-Rod's here, then there will be no more titles in da bronx. So sad, so so sad :-(
71 Crack pipe? Really? I've never even smoked a cigarette.
Look, I love Cano but if I could get the best pitcher in the league and keep the best pitching prospect in the league by just giving up Cano and Melky... I would do it. In the playoffs, having Santana and Hughes in the rotation for the next five years could be a difference maker. Will having Cano at second and Hughes in the rotation be a difference maker? I hope so, but I'm not so sure. Everyone says that great pitching beats great hitting. So my thought was that we might try trading one of our great hitters for a great pitcher and maybe that would improve our chances in the postseason. Maybe that's not a reasonable explanation, but I don't think that it is "crack pipe-ish".
vockins, would you trade Cano for Santana, straight up?
73 I miss ric and debris (our "usual" Sox "trolls"). They at least added something useful to the conversation when they spoke. You do not, so, good bye.
;-)
I don't know what to make of the Giants long deal for Aaron Rowand, except that Brian Sabean is desperate/and/or doesn't learn from past mistakes. Though I won't feel cocky about the fact that they may have Dave Roberts in LF given my team may have Juan Pierre in LF(!) but at least I have hope Joe Torre may gag at that idea as well.
Ultimately, I don't think Cashman would trade Cano anyway. So, this whole discussion, while fun (in a looney tunes sorta way) is probably mute/moot... ;-)
78 hi bama - i'll be happy to get out the already crappy new england weather at the end of next week for a brief return to bama.
good effort at thinking out of the box - and i agree with your sentiment about a santana, wang, hughes, and joba rotation.
but my hesitance about parting with cano for almost anyone except pujols or the like is as has been stated, he is the only good young bat, also he is the only good infielder, and probably the only above average fileder of any position.
it has been alluded to before, but the yanks and twins may not be good trade partners because of the twins higher need for position players than pitchers.
i hope cashman and oppenheimer continue to grow the farm by focusing some more on the position player side to balance out players for the yanks, as well as to make us a more versatile trading partner
Have a safe trip, ms october.
Is Alex not a good infielder, are are you talking about prospects?
81 sorry - that was not well thought out/written- though alex is a good fielder, he is not really well above average according to most metrics, whereas some ratings put cano among the top 2b - plus it seems a good guess that within a couple of years alex will start declining more and possibly need to move
The reason I ask is while my excitement level is usually at 100 (scale of 1 to 100) on opening day, this year it's going to be about 120. I'm usually beyond amped and ready to go but this next year has that special something to it... Joba Ian Hughes is his name.
Andy Pettitte, on whether the Yankees need to get Santana:
"I guess there has been a lot of speculation that we need a true power arm, ace or whatever. I disagree with that," he said. "I think Wang is an absolute stud. I think he is an ace. I understand he struggled in the postseason but that's going to happen. I've struggled in the postseason before then come back and pitched extremely well. To say we need (Santana) to be successful, that's hard for me to say."
Awesome.
That's exactly right.
Even this last season? I know he's had weird head-case struggles at third in the past, but last season he seemed extremely steady and very, very clutch. He seems to make a lot of those tough short-hops (great reflexes), is pretty damned good coming down the line and he's got that arm.
I was actually just as impressed by his fielding as by his bat last season.
Meanwhile, Robby's the one who, despite the fact that he makes a lot of unbelievable plays up the middle and has a great pivot on dp's, always makes me nervous when the money's on the table. I just don't entirely trust him.
Plus, for Christ's sake, I really really really wish Abreu would learn to call him off.
Those over-the-shoulder basket catches drive me to distraction
Two relievers struck me eye: Akinori Otsuka (in whom the Yankees have expressed interest in the past) and Kiko Calero.
If you're looking for bench strength, there's Willie Harris, who had a good first half for the Braves before fading.
In terms of right-handed hitters, there are Jason Lane (who's a project coming off a miserable two seasons), Morgan Ensberg (if only the Yankees still needed a third baseman), and Kevin Mench.
Also, Mark Prior was non-tendered. Would you take a chance on him? If he'd take a one-year contract with lots of incentives, I'd be tempted.
Other players who wouldn't interest the Yankees, but are nonetheless intriguing are Adam Everett (the new Mark Belanger), Johnny Estrada (the Mets career didn't last long), and Miguel Olivo.
I'm sorry for the "crack pipe" comment... but I really do think that the idea of trading Robinson Cano for Santana is nutty. There are maybe 5 guys in the game I'd trade him for, straight up, and they're all position players. He's 25, and arguably the best 2B in the AL.
The Yankees are an old team. Cano and Melky are the only young position players. The Yanks need more of that, not less.
I'd rather trade Hughes+ than Cano. And I don't want to trade Hughes.
Thanks, Pavano. Douche.
i would love to comment on this, but it pretty much speaks for itself.
94 Yeah, he came over in the Slocumb heist...
98 They were spare parts, so I can't find much fault with letting them go. Of course, all 3 probably have a better chance of contributing this season than Pavano...
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