12 i see all of us in new england are in a yankee state of mind.
it could be a lot worse. the fact that it is one year, and not an outrageous amount of money makes it palatable to me. if he can NOT walk people (which he seems to have decent walk numbers) like half of the other releivers we have it will make me happy. but since he basically never strikes any one out, we might need quite a few LIDRs for him.
Why all the groans? As we discussed yesterday, Hawkins is a solid reliever who has developed above average control (something the Yankee bullpen sorely needs).
Also, by signing Hawkins, it shows the Yankees aren't willing to commit to a long-term deal for questionable middle relievers, which is a good thing. Finally, by swapping Viz out for Hawkins, the Yankees will also get a supplemental round draft pick.
I think Hawkins for one year + a draft pick isn't such a bad deal...in fact, I think it's a pretty good one.
5 I don't know. He did pretty well in 5 post season innings this past season. As long as he isn't asked to handle the toughest situations that arise, I think Hawkins can continue his solid career for one season in New York.
I don't mind the deal, I like the draft pick. Hawkins has a career ERA of more than 4. He has a career WHIP of like 1.5. I don't think he's solid, I think he's sketchy.
And yes, I know I said yesterday that he was awful, and now I'm walking away from that comment, so who knows, by tomorrow I might think he's Mariano Rivera.
Wondering what Pettitte accomplished by accepting arbitration. The Yankees had stated that the $16 million offer was still on the table, and Pettitte had stated that he would take it. The new CBA removes the deadline for negotiating with players who decline arbitration. So the only effect of Pettitte's move was that the Yankees had to clear a roster spot immediately.
Speaking of arbitration, Cot's Contracts' "unofficial" arbitration list includes Bruney. Will the Yankees non-tender him to clear another roster spot (for A-Rod or Mo)?
On a one year deal, Hawkins is probably the best of a bunch of bad options. Riske would have been nice, but outside of him and the guys that got closer deals, nobody on the market looked good for a 3 year contract. As abused as Vizcaino was last year, I wouldn't have committed even one year to him.
As mentioned, Hawkins' low walk totals are nice. The 3.06 GB to FB ratio last year is especially appealing, though potentially a fluke as it isn't really in line with his career numbers.
Without checking the splits, it seems to me that the Yankees always beat him up pretty good, which may be coloring the some people's opinions. He's basically always around league average or a little better. And on a one year deal, if he stinks, you cut him.
9 By using his career numbers, you are lumping in his failed stint as a starter, which accounts for half his innings total. Since becoming a reliever in 2000, Hawkins has had several excellent seasons, but only one below average season. I think it is much more relevant to consider what he has done as a reliever, as opposed to lumping in the 500 innings when he was a young starter.
4 etc., I agree. Throw him against the wall, see if he sticks. For all the young arms with potential, none of them are really worth writing home about (except the injury cadre, who are - of course - injured...). For all the rosy scenarios of these guys turning into a semi decent 'pen, they could also turn into the Rays' pen. The 5ish guys who make the BP throwing up 5-6 ERAs is not inconceivable, so I like this signing.
Last year, lefties slugged .443 off him. The year before: .505
Last year he had an unheard of (outside of CMW) G/F ratio of 3.05. If that remains true, we're going to be hearing a lot of Pastadiving Jeter a lot- check out his Fielding Independent Pitching, which the last two years has been half a run above his ERA.
The WHIP of 1.5 that Sctheeve cited is about right for two of the last three seasons. Sure he doesn't walk many but gives up a TON of hits. I'm envisioning a lot of runners inherited on second base scoring on a groundball through the middle.
You are right, one year of Hawkins is better than overspending for three years of Viz. Plus, you've got to hope the Yanks can find some good bullpen arms in their system, no?
18 Right. This smells 100% of a contingency plan. I truly believe the main objective is to work the kids from the minors into the pen as the year goes along, but you can't very well have ALL kids out there plus Farnsworth and Mo.
Rivera would set a record for most 2-inning appearances by a closer!
Hawkins and Farnsworth together again. Cubs fans are snickering. These are two guys who can't handle pressure and have always been worse than their numbers suggest. Not a bad contract for the Yanks, though, and I think we gotta hope a good reliever emerges from the farm, anyway, so not much has changed in that respect.
Man, NoMaas is usually way out in left field with the crazy trades, but their post on the Matsui to SF possibility has some great quotes from Sabean. Sabean really seems open to trading Lincicum, or preferably Cain, for some thump in the lineup. I'm really shitting myself over the possibility... But there's no way, no way SF is that dumb. Or are they....
Anyway, how would you all feel about signing Bartolo Colon to a one-year incentive loaded contract (if he would take it). He's not a type-A FA (right?) and could help lighten the innings load on the kids. And he has considerable upside to go with his considerable injury risk. Maybe the opening day/first third of the season's rotation should be Wang, Pettitte, Moose, Colon, Kennedy, to keep the innings down on Sir Phil and Sir Joba. Then Phil & Joba come up to replace Moose & Colon as they suck/get injured, and Moose can spot Kennedy later in the year to keep him fresh. Pretty distasteful to start with a rotation designed for mediocrity, but I really worry about all those innings we'd need from the kids.
21 I would have been for signing Colon if Pettitte wasn't coming back. Now, not only is there no place in the rotation for him, he's going to be 35 and has been a train wreck since he stole the Cy Young from Santana (and Mo!) in 2005.
Wang - good for 200 innings
Pettitte - same, though age/injury more of a concern
Mussina - "good" for ~180 innings but those innings might suck
Hughes - good for ~140 innings
Chamberlain - good for ~140 innings
Kennedy - good for ~190 innings
The trouble is finding ways of keeping Hughes & Chamberlain's innings down. If I was in charge, and I could get Moose to agree, I think I'd open the season with this rotation:
Wang
Hughes/Mussina
Pettitte
Kennedy
Chamberlain
I'd have Hughes on a loose* 5 inning/start cap to start the year, and put Moose in for multiple innings in relief. Chamberlain, as 5th starter, would throw less innings because he'd have fewer starts, and one could also implement a first-half innings cap with him, and if the timing worked out right Moose could be the innings eating reliever for him too. In the second half, if all is going well, the innings caps can be relaxed and you can try stretching the kids out a bit more. Depending on how the farm is doing and the needs of the 'pen, it might also make sense to skip a start or two and plug in the 6th/7th guy on the depth chart (Horne? Igawa? Rasner?)...
* - by loose I mean that # pitches and the stress level of said pitches should be important too. If he's at 90 high-effort pitches after 4 innings, pull him and bring in Moose.
But I think Mussina would hate that, and complain. A lot.
23 And except for a brief nod to Pettitte, you think the rest of the starting rotation will not suffer an injury? Especially how the Yanks don't hesitate to put a starter on the DL when a groin or hammy barks?
No teams have all of their starters make it through a season unscathed, why should the Yanks be the exception?
25 Yeah I expect Jeff Karstens and Darrel Rasner and Steve Whte (and -cough- Kei Igawa -cough-) to be making spot starts for the Yanks well into the season.
25 - Oh, granted. The Yanks will probably need 7-8 starters over the course of the season. I mentioned 6. 7-9 are probably (right now) Rasner, Karstens, Igawa.
If one could sign Colon to a 1-year deal and stash him in AAA as a "break in case of emergency" sort of thing... um, ok. But I don't want to start the year with him in the rotation and quality like Hughes or Joba in the minors.
I guess this lessens the chance of us seeing Britton. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, you know, because I've never seen him in the bigs.
26 I believe that Rasner is out of options. So though he is the best of the three, he can only work out in a full-time swing-man role (as opposed to riding the Scranton shuttle).
123 Perhaps my favorite part of living in this town is the feeling of camaraderie I get whenever I see another cap-wearing fan. But yeah, not thrilled about Hawkins. On the other hand, if he sucks I feel pretty confident that Girardi's BP management skills will preclude the Torre-era "look, the game's on the line! Professor Farnsworth, I choose you!" decisionmaking process.
16 10 more hits than IP doesn't qualify as a ton. In fact, it's actually pretty good. The point about Jeter is valid, but isn't that really a SS issue?
Besides, would you rather have three years of Viz instead of one of Hawkins plus a supplemental drat pick? What would you have preferred? Use all youngsters to fill out the pen (weren't we anxious to have Bruney and Henn take a more prominent role last season? look how that turned out).
34 OYF isn't going to like it, but the lead of that article is already dubbing Hughes as the guy the Yankees refused to part with for Santana. I think that moniker is going to be around for a while.
35 As fans, doesn't this put us in the awkward position of rooting for Santana to stink or get hurt? That is not the position I'd prefer to be in.
32 In the abstract, the Hawkins signing is blah to me, but in context, its hard to argue that 3 years of Viz are preferable. And that draft pick is very nice.
Besides, its not like the Yanks haven't cut bait before on a mediocre middle reliever, even if they owed them $3.5M. I'm thinking of Mike Stanton and his $4M salary in 2005, DFA'd late that June.
32 My point is that with the Yankees' infield (with only Cano as a significantly above-average defender), the Yankees need strikeout pitchers. They were woefully bad in strikeouts last year, and adding Hughes and Joba to the rotation will help. But in the bullpen, a high number of walks was only half the problem. Look at Hawkins numbers the last three years- when his ERA went down it was because he was with Colorado, a team with an above average defense (and his BABIP was the lowest of his career).
When the team has such an average defense, it's a combination of limiting all three fielding-independent results that matters. While Hawkins seems reliable on the HR and BB front, I worry about the lack of strikeouts. I really think they could be better provided by decent strikeout numbers of Britton, Albaladejo, and Ohlendorf.
I agree it's a better deal than signing Viz to three years. But it looks like the Yankees might be making that mistake anyway with a different mediocre reliever- Ron Mahay.
Phil Hughes - The one not traded for Johan Santana
Melky Cabrera - He who holds the jock strap for The one not traded for Johan Santana
Alan horne - He who holds the jock strap for He who holds the jock strap for The one not traded for Johan Santana
$150 million - Hardly worth mentioning
Not a lot of Yankee News this time of year. Maybe someone can review ARods tax returns or check Cynthia's wardrobe for leather goods.
These writers don't bother me a bit. I don't think they bother Phil. I hope Phil is a solid #3 or better this year, and a solid #2 or better for a decade after that.
38 Isn't Phil Hughes trying to cure cancer in his spare time?
Or maybe, we need a Phil Hughes facts page (hat tip to Chuck Norris). Like Phil Hughes curveball breaks so hard it can tunnel through the earth to Australia.
37 Mattpat might kill me for saying this, but I'd be really surprised if there's a heck of a lot of difference between Ron Mahay and Kei Igawa over the next 3 years. I think signing Mahay to anything other than a 1 year deal is a big mistake, unless a trade of Igawa is in the works as well.
The problem with signing FA relievers is that anyone who is close to good is a Type A/B and asking for a multi-year deal. I'm hesistant to give up draft picks and years for someone who is likely to be crappy at least one of those years, if not more.
41 That, like a lot of the hating on Hawkins, sounds so exaggerated. While it would be great if the mass of humanity that is the Yankee BP options crew could turn into something good, it would seem more likely that Sean Henn will continue to be awful, as will Igawa, and probably Chase Wright. I love the kids as much as anyone, but I think people are overcompensating. With many of our in house options, a 6 ERA is not terribly unlikely, while expecting something in the low/mid 4s is probably reasonable for the Hawkins & Mahays of the world...
There IS a huge difference between historically awful, which a BP of Bruney, Igawa, Henn, Veras, etc may be, and just bad/poor, which has Mahay and Hawkins in it.
I'm high on Melancon (especially) and Humberto & Cox, but they'll probably need another 6mo to heal & maybe another 6mo-1yr after that to get ready. Vet stopgaps on short contracts are the best way to bridge.
37 You really think the Yankees are only average on defense? I thought they were very good last year. Andy and CMW rely on their infield quite a bit, and I don't recall too many games where I'd say the defense let them down. They saved those games for Moose (I kid, lol).
Sure, if Giambi is playing first base then all bets are off, but otherwise I think the Yankees have good hands out there. A-Rod and Cano are both excellent at their positions, and Jeter is - well - let's not go there (dead horse alert). I don't believe the Yankees have quite settled their first base situation yet. I think Giambi is gonna be the full time DH (assuming Matsui is traded), which leaves open a spot for a first baseman. If Minky - excellent defense, crappy bat. If not - then who knows.
There is potential there for above average defense. Not best in league, but not bumblers either.
42 Well, no skin off the Yankees' back if they sign a Type B player, since it's just a supplemental first round pick. The only effect would be in more vague way if the supplemental selections prevent the Yankees from taking who they want in the second round.
44 I always hesitate to bring up defensive stats because of the flame war threat, but here's the 2007 Zone Rating (as reported by The Hardball Times) for the Yankees' infielders:
Robinson Cano- .883 (13th in the majors)
Derek Jeter- .777 (23rd of 25 SS)
Alex Rodriguez- .662 (17th of 21 3B)
The X factor is Shelley Duncan, who doesn't have a whole lot of numbers to go by. Giambi has not had enough innings to qualify since THT started keeping track, but he's had the follwing seasons:
2004: .818 in 375 innings (would have been #1 in the majors)
2005: .722 in 560 innings (would have been 15th of 17)
2006: .695 in 480 innings (would have been dead last by a huge margin)
So I think it's safe to say that, as measured by THT's Zone Rating, the Yankees have an average to below-average infield defense. As for handling ground-ball pitchers like CMW, consider that the Yankees "Team Defensive Efficiency," literally the number of non-homer batted balls turned into outs- was .696: 14th in the majors. So, overall, the Yankees were pretty average at turning batted balls into outs.
Further, consider that Wang's BABIP last year was .297. That's pretty average as well... perhaps if he had a better defense behind him, he'd have a much lower ERA.
43 I guess I'm too much of a DIPS/FIPS disciple. To me, judging relievers on their ERA is like judging hitters on their batting average - too much fluctuation year to year based on factors outside of the player's control, and not nearly enough information to make the number worthwhile as an evaluation tool.
So let me revise my statement to read:
"Mattpat might kill me for saying this, but looking just at K-rate, BB/9, and HR/9, I'd be really surprised if there's a heck of a lot of difference between Ron Mahay and Kei Igawa over the next 3 years."
My opposition to signing Mahay is in giving him a 3 year deal, because IMO, the Yanks do not need a lefty reliever so badly as to be paying Ron Mahay when he is 38 in 2010. And, the overwhelming evidence shows that multi-year contracts to middle relievers are a huge waste.
If they sign Mahay to a one-year deal like Hawkins', the Yanks will get no beef from me.
What's not to like? Viz and T-hawk are a lateral move. We need some experience in the pen. We give up no draft choices to get him. The money and years make sense. We give up a 'B' FA in Viz and get a Supplemental Pick back if/when he signs elsewhere. If T-Hawk is blocking a kid that is destroying hitters at AAA or if he sucks he's movable through trade or waivers. He's not meant to be a high leverage answer and we shouldn't expect him to be. This seems like a no brainer.
51 It seems like Cashman has taken the lesson of a volatile BP and decided to stockpile as many options as possible without giving any multi-year contracts out or losing draft picks. If that's really the case, I can't say I disagree with the strategy. We have something like 15 kids competing for a few spots, Rivera, Farnsworth and Hawkins. Hawkins is easily jettisonable via trade or release if one of the kids is better.
What's Mike Remlinger up to these days? He's only 41 now, and if Cashman's trying to re-create the 2004 Cubs bullpen, he's a must-get! Plus he's a lefty!
Kent Mercker and Glendon Rusch should be available too!
48 I'm not that down on signing Mahay. I think there really is some advantage to having a lefty in the bullpen, some lefty that's better than Henn or Igawa.
But I completely agree that three years is a terrible idea, not just for Mahay but for virtually any reliever.
54 Aww... come on! Not only is Andy Hawkins so far the only pitcher ever to win a world series game as a member of the San Diego Padres, but for a week in July 1990 he was a pretty brilliant pitcher! That no-hitter loss was all Jim Leyritz's fault! In his next start, he pitched a shutout into the 12th inning (and also lost, thanks to the general inability to get on base, and some unclutch hitting by Kevin Maas in the 11th).
Surely, for those reasons, he deserves to not be your most-hated Hawkins. What about the short-lived TV series starting James Stewart?
More internet idiocy, courtesy of an MLBTR comment:
"i hate the yankees and red sox. they have so much money to spend that if they see some other team about to get a good player, they get in there and offer a bit more to get em. Yes, the yankees are terrible and i think Hawkins will help them, but they could also have easily found somebody better, they just wanted to screw the rox"
Yes, the Yankees hate Jesus and thus the Rockies. The only reason they went after Hawkins was to fuck them both over.
42 I think they have to admit that using the same Type A/B restrictions on relievers just doesn't work. They should either chuck the compensation for relievers or severely tighten it (maybe no Type B's?)
Ummm...his ERA+ has been > 100 every season since 2002. That's nothing to sneeze at. I don't mind dumping $3.5M on this guy for one season for an ERA+ of over 100.
The Philadelphia Phillies reportedly have a mild interest in New York Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina. Pitching against National League lineups, without designated hitters, could extend Mussina's career long enough to boost his Hall of Fame hopes. He's no cinch to make the Yankees' starting rotation.
And people complaining about his ground ball tendencies - don't you realize that the Yankees had one of the best defenses in baseball last season? Check out Pinto's defensive stats.
62 What, exactly, does ERA+ tell us about a relief pitcher? Scott Proctor had an ERA+ of 124 last year- do you feel confident that he's 24% better than the average pitcher? Mike Myers was at 168! Sign him to a long term deal!
Clearly, the best way to judge a relief pitcher (or any pitcher, really) is to look at his components: HR, K, BB... these things stay pretty constant no matter the environment. ERA+ isn't like EqA or something that puts together all components into one number- that would be FIP... and Hawkins has been very average.
as for 64 and the Yankees' defense: THT calls it average. BP calls it average. Traditional scouts call it average. As for Pinto's model, he's admitted that teams with good offenses tend to score better, since the model is based on the visiting team's defense:
There's everything that's telling me the Yankees are pretty much average, and then there's Pinto telling me that he's got a flawed system saying the Yankees are above average. Seems fishy to me...
Barry Hawkins (born 1979), English snooker player
Benjamin Hawkins (1754-1816), American farmer, statesman, and delegate to the Native American Creek people
Chris Hawkins (born 1975), English DJ and radio presenter
Coleman Hawkins (1904–1969), American jazz tenor saxophonist
David R. Hawkins (born 1927), American mystic, teacher, author and psychiatrist
Erick Hawkins, modern dancer
Francesca Hawkins, Trinidadian television news presenter
Jack Hawkins (1910-1973), British film actor
Jeff Hawkins (born 1957), American scientist, founder of Palm Computing, Handspring and Numenta
Jennifer Hawkins (born 1983), Australian model, Miss Universe winner 2004 and TV personality
Jim Hawkins, English radio presenter
Sir John Hawkins (1532-1595), English merchant, navigator, slave trader, shipbuilder and pirate
John Hawkins (geologist), Cornish traveller, geologist and FRS
Justin Hawkins (born 1975), English rock musician with The Darkness
Kyle Hawkins (born 1970), American lacrosse coach, gay rights activist
LaTroy Hawkins, (born 1972), baseball player
Sir Richard Hawkins (c.1562–1622), English seaman, vice-admiral and Member of Parliament
Robert A. Hawkins, of the Westroads Mall massacre.
Ronnie Hawkins (born 1935), American rock singer and songwriter
Sally Hawkins (born 1976), British actress
Screamin' Jay Hawkins (1929-2000), American singer and entertainer
Sophie B. Hawkins (born 1967), American singer and songwriter
Tom Hawkins (footballer) (born 1988), Australian Football player
Wynn Hawkins (born 1936), Major League Baseball pitcher
In Fiction, Hawkins may also refer to:
Hawkins (TV series), American television series starring James Stewart
D.L. Hawkins, a character on the 2006 NBC TV Series Heroes
Jim Hawkins, a fictional character in the book Treasure Island
Robert Hawkins, a character on the 2006 CBS TV Series Jericho.
Objects named Hawkins also refer to:
Hawkins grenade
A pitcher's job is to not give up runs. Looking only at K rates, etc. is what the Chien-Ming Wang doubters do. In terms of not giving up runs, Hawkins has been pretty good over the past few years.
What K rates, etc. do tell you is whether or not the success is sustainable. Normally, someone who strikes out as few as Hawkins does will not have prolonged success. Clearly, however, some pitchers get by. Wang is obviously one of them. Hawkins has proven that he can be between average and outstanding despite his low K rates. For a one-year contract way below market value, it's probably worth it to see if he can continue that success for just one more year, especially when you considered that the most active member of the pen is now gone.
This whole post could be rendered useless, however, by advanced relief pitcher metrics, ones I don't know enough about and don't care to look up right now.
73 Yes, of course the deal is giving up runs... except with relief pitchers, there are often runners on base that the reliever is responsible for. If CMW leaves a game with a runner on second and one out in the seventh, and Hawkins comes in and gives up a couple hits before getting out of the inning, his ERA stays pristine but he didn't do his job. If, meanwhile, he is really good at getting strikeouts, he is more likely to do the job without allowing other people's runners to score.
For this reason I think that "inherited runners scored" should be a good stat by which we can judge relievers. However, none of my favorite sites (BP, THT, BR) track this, so I can't make any comparisons.
Is there something about Jonathan Sanchez I don't know? I mean, Stick and the guys upstairs know more than I ever will, but I don't understand why he would be the guy targeted in a deal involving Matsui.
Is Matsui + Kennedy + someone like Hilligoss that ridiculous for Cain or Lincecum?
74 mehmattski, if you go look at the ARP BP report - http://tinyurl.com/2sau25 - they do track inherited runs prevented, which they define as "The expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever's appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score."
I like the adjusted metric of Adjusted Runs Prevented, which IIRC, takes inherited runs and bequeathed runs (ex: the guys Hawkins leaves on base for Farnsworth to clean up) into account.
77 Sanchez is (was?) a well-regarded pitcher despite his otherwise poor numbers.
There is a stat for relief pitchers that takes inherited runners (and bequeathed runners, and one's own runs allowed) into account: Baseball Prospectus' "Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring" (ARP).
Hawkins ranked 4th on the Rockies in ARP, with 9.4. For comparison, the closest 2007 Yankee reliever was... Luis Viscaino, with a 11.0 ARP. Viz had more innings pitched, was slightly better (!) at keeping inherited runners from scoring, but got luckier when it came to his bequeathed runners.
Mo lead the team with 19.4, Joba racked up 11.5 in only 24 innings. 4th on the team behind Viz was Chris Britton, with a 5.5 ARP in only 12 2/3 innings.
Farnsworthless = -4.8.
Edwar = -10.5 (oof).
Sean Henn brings up the rear with a -14.3.
Anyway, I don't think Hawkins is going to be good. He's basically Vizcaino, for 1 year instead of three. I hope we see more of Britton.
At the risk of using a slow baseball day to go all literary in punning, I expect to offer a few 'was there another LaTroy for him to burn' lines come spring, watching Girardi handle the bullpen. (The reference is Yeats, btw.)
I'm with william and wsporter ... see no downside to this signing, with a one year deal and a draft pick for Viz.
I'd also agree with those saying our D is average to not-quite, last year and projecting forwards. In fact, thinking about it, 'average' might be pushing it. Where does anyone see excellence, let alone a (deserved) Golden Glove? Is Melky -that- good? Doubt it.
And will anyone join me in urging the Mets to get a move on already and chase Santana properly? There seems to be some agreement here, at least a majority, that we didn't want the Hughes/Melky/fairly-warm bodies deal to go down, with the lunatic payroll that would ensue, but surely I can't be alone in dreading the Bosox with two of the 3 or 4 likely Cy Young pitchers? I say we start a petition! Run him out of the league!
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eric gagne just signed a one year deal for $10M.
it could be a lot worse...
...right?
it could be a lot worse. the fact that it is one year, and not an outrageous amount of money makes it palatable to me. if he can NOT walk people (which he seems to have decent walk numbers) like half of the other releivers we have it will make me happy. but since he basically never strikes any one out, we might need quite a few LIDRs for him.
Also, by signing Hawkins, it shows the Yankees aren't willing to commit to a long-term deal for questionable middle relievers, which is a good thing. Finally, by swapping Viz out for Hawkins, the Yankees will also get a supplemental round draft pick.
I think Hawkins for one year + a draft pick isn't such a bad deal...in fact, I think it's a pretty good one.
Interesting-looking guy though. He's got that looooong neck. Always reminded me a little bit of a horse.
Hell, I'd have been up for signing Gagne too (the stuff was still there), though not necessarily @ $10 mil.
For the record, I don't think Hawkins will be any good either.
And yes, I know I said yesterday that he was awful, and now I'm walking away from that comment, so who knows, by tomorrow I might think he's Mariano Rivera.
Speaking of arbitration, Cot's Contracts' "unofficial" arbitration list includes Bruney. Will the Yankees non-tender him to clear another roster spot (for A-Rod or Mo)?
As mentioned, Hawkins' low walk totals are nice. The 3.06 GB to FB ratio last year is especially appealing, though potentially a fluke as it isn't really in line with his career numbers.
Without checking the splits, it seems to me that the Yankees always beat him up pretty good, which may be coloring the some people's opinions. He's basically always around league average or a little better. And on a one year deal, if he stinks, you cut him.
115.6 IP
486 Batters Faced
56 Strikeouts
125 Hits
Last year, lefties slugged .443 off him. The year before: .505
Last year he had an unheard of (outside of CMW) G/F ratio of 3.05. If that remains true, we're going to be hearing a lot of Pastadiving Jeter a lot- check out his Fielding Independent Pitching, which the last two years has been half a run above his ERA.
The WHIP of 1.5 that Sctheeve cited is about right for two of the last three seasons. Sure he doesn't walk many but gives up a TON of hits. I'm envisioning a lot of runners inherited on second base scoring on a groundball through the middle.
I'd rather have Andy Hawkins.
He has had some excellent years in the BP, and if Girardi is as good at building a pen as I think he will be, Hawkins can be a big asset.
Rivera would set a record for most 2-inning appearances by a closer!
Anyway, how would you all feel about signing Bartolo Colon to a one-year incentive loaded contract (if he would take it). He's not a type-A FA (right?) and could help lighten the innings load on the kids. And he has considerable upside to go with his considerable injury risk. Maybe the opening day/first third of the season's rotation should be Wang, Pettitte, Moose, Colon, Kennedy, to keep the innings down on Sir Phil and Sir Joba. Then Phil & Joba come up to replace Moose & Colon as they suck/get injured, and Moose can spot Kennedy later in the year to keep him fresh. Pretty distasteful to start with a rotation designed for mediocrity, but I really worry about all those innings we'd need from the kids.
Wang - good for 200 innings
Pettitte - same, though age/injury more of a concern
Mussina - "good" for ~180 innings but those innings might suck
Hughes - good for ~140 innings
Chamberlain - good for ~140 innings
Kennedy - good for ~190 innings
The trouble is finding ways of keeping Hughes & Chamberlain's innings down. If I was in charge, and I could get Moose to agree, I think I'd open the season with this rotation:
Wang
Hughes/Mussina
Pettitte
Kennedy
Chamberlain
I'd have Hughes on a loose* 5 inning/start cap to start the year, and put Moose in for multiple innings in relief. Chamberlain, as 5th starter, would throw less innings because he'd have fewer starts, and one could also implement a first-half innings cap with him, and if the timing worked out right Moose could be the innings eating reliever for him too. In the second half, if all is going well, the innings caps can be relaxed and you can try stretching the kids out a bit more. Depending on how the farm is doing and the needs of the 'pen, it might also make sense to skip a start or two and plug in the 6th/7th guy on the depth chart (Horne? Igawa? Rasner?)...
* - by loose I mean that # pitches and the stress level of said pitches should be important too. If he's at 90 high-effort pitches after 4 innings, pull him and bring in Moose.
But I think Mussina would hate that, and complain. A lot.
22 Agreed.
No teams have all of their starters make it through a season unscathed, why should the Yanks be the exception?
If one could sign Colon to a 1-year deal and stash him in AAA as a "break in case of emergency" sort of thing... um, ok. But I don't want to start the year with him in the rotation and quality like Hughes or Joba in the minors.
Besides, would you rather have three years of Viz instead of one of Hawkins plus a supplemental drat pick? What would you have preferred? Use all youngsters to fill out the pen (weren't we anxious to have Bruney and Henn take a more prominent role last season? look how that turned out).
"Already high, expections for Phil Hughes has reached a new level"
http://tinyurl.com/ystvqq
32 In the abstract, the Hawkins signing is blah to me, but in context, its hard to argue that 3 years of Viz are preferable. And that draft pick is very nice.
Besides, its not like the Yanks haven't cut bait before on a mediocre middle reliever, even if they owed them $3.5M. I'm thinking of Mike Stanton and his $4M salary in 2005, DFA'd late that June.
When the team has such an average defense, it's a combination of limiting all three fielding-independent results that matters. While Hawkins seems reliable on the HR and BB front, I worry about the lack of strikeouts. I really think they could be better provided by decent strikeout numbers of Britton, Albaladejo, and Ohlendorf.
I agree it's a better deal than signing Viz to three years. But it looks like the Yankees might be making that mistake anyway with a different mediocre reliever- Ron Mahay.
Melky Cabrera - He who holds the jock strap for The one not traded for Johan Santana
Alan horne - He who holds the jock strap for He who holds the jock strap for The one not traded for Johan Santana
$150 million - Hardly worth mentioning
Not a lot of Yankee News this time of year. Maybe someone can review ARods tax returns or check Cynthia's wardrobe for leather goods.
These writers don't bother me a bit. I don't think they bother Phil. I hope Phil is a solid #3 or better this year, and a solid #2 or better for a decade after that.
Or maybe, we need a Phil Hughes facts page (hat tip to Chuck Norris). Like Phil Hughes curveball breaks so hard it can tunnel through the earth to Australia.
There IS a huge difference between historically awful, which a BP of Bruney, Igawa, Henn, Veras, etc may be, and just bad/poor, which has Mahay and Hawkins in it.
I'm high on Melancon (especially) and Humberto & Cox, but they'll probably need another 6mo to heal & maybe another 6mo-1yr after that to get ready. Vet stopgaps on short contracts are the best way to bridge.
Sure, if Giambi is playing first base then all bets are off, but otherwise I think the Yankees have good hands out there. A-Rod and Cano are both excellent at their positions, and Jeter is - well - let's not go there (dead horse alert). I don't believe the Yankees have quite settled their first base situation yet. I think Giambi is gonna be the full time DH (assuming Matsui is traded), which leaves open a spot for a first baseman. If Minky - excellent defense, crappy bat. If not - then who knows.
There is potential there for above average defense. Not best in league, but not bumblers either.
Robinson Cano- .883 (13th in the majors)
Derek Jeter- .777 (23rd of 25 SS)
Alex Rodriguez- .662 (17th of 21 3B)
The X factor is Shelley Duncan, who doesn't have a whole lot of numbers to go by. Giambi has not had enough innings to qualify since THT started keeping track, but he's had the follwing seasons:
2004: .818 in 375 innings (would have been #1 in the majors)
2005: .722 in 560 innings (would have been 15th of 17)
2006: .695 in 480 innings (would have been dead last by a huge margin)
So I think it's safe to say that, as measured by THT's Zone Rating, the Yankees have an average to below-average infield defense. As for handling ground-ball pitchers like CMW, consider that the Yankees "Team Defensive Efficiency," literally the number of non-homer batted balls turned into outs- was .696: 14th in the majors. So, overall, the Yankees were pretty average at turning batted balls into outs.
Further, consider that Wang's BABIP last year was .297. That's pretty average as well... perhaps if he had a better defense behind him, he'd have a much lower ERA.
So let me revise my statement to read:
"Mattpat might kill me for saying this, but looking just at K-rate, BB/9, and HR/9, I'd be really surprised if there's a heck of a lot of difference between Ron Mahay and Kei Igawa over the next 3 years."
My opposition to signing Mahay is in giving him a 3 year deal, because IMO, the Yanks do not need a lefty reliever so badly as to be paying Ron Mahay when he is 38 in 2010. And, the overwhelming evidence shows that multi-year contracts to middle relievers are a huge waste.
If they sign Mahay to a one-year deal like Hawkins', the Yanks will get no beef from me.
Kent Mercker and Glendon Rusch should be available too!
But I completely agree that three years is a terrible idea, not just for Mahay but for virtually any reliever.
anyways ...
MY FAVORITE HAWKINS!
Sadie
Coleman
Jack
Colonel Benjamin
Sir Richard
Jennifer
LaTroy
Andy
Welcome, LaTroy, my-not-least-favorite Hawkins!
Surely, for those reasons, he deserves to not be your most-hated Hawkins. What about the short-lived TV series starting James Stewart?
"i hate the yankees and red sox. they have so much money to spend that if they see some other team about to get a good player, they get in there and offer a bit more to get em. Yes, the yankees are terrible and i think Hawkins will help them, but they could also have easily found somebody better, they just wanted to screw the rox"
Yes, the Yankees hate Jesus and thus the Rockies. The only reason they went after Hawkins was to fuck them both over.
Clearly, the best way to judge a relief pitcher (or any pitcher, really) is to look at his components: HR, K, BB... these things stay pretty constant no matter the environment. ERA+ isn't like EqA or something that puts together all components into one number- that would be FIP... and Hawkins has been very average.
as for 64 and the Yankees' defense: THT calls it average. BP calls it average. Traditional scouts call it average. As for Pinto's model, he's admitted that teams with good offenses tend to score better, since the model is based on the visiting team's defense:
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/cat_probabilistic_model_of_range.php
There's everything that's telling me the Yankees are pretty much average, and then there's Pinto telling me that he's got a flawed system saying the Yankees are above average. Seems fishy to me...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C9aiWr0Vfg&eurl=http://mybaseballbias.com/
Barry Hawkins (born 1979), English snooker player
Benjamin Hawkins (1754-1816), American farmer, statesman, and delegate to the Native American Creek people
Chris Hawkins (born 1975), English DJ and radio presenter
Coleman Hawkins (1904–1969), American jazz tenor saxophonist
David R. Hawkins (born 1927), American mystic, teacher, author and psychiatrist
Erick Hawkins, modern dancer
Francesca Hawkins, Trinidadian television news presenter
Jack Hawkins (1910-1973), British film actor
Jeff Hawkins (born 1957), American scientist, founder of Palm Computing, Handspring and Numenta
Jennifer Hawkins (born 1983), Australian model, Miss Universe winner 2004 and TV personality
Jim Hawkins, English radio presenter
Sir John Hawkins (1532-1595), English merchant, navigator, slave trader, shipbuilder and pirate
John Hawkins (geologist), Cornish traveller, geologist and FRS
Justin Hawkins (born 1975), English rock musician with The Darkness
Kyle Hawkins (born 1970), American lacrosse coach, gay rights activist
LaTroy Hawkins, (born 1972), baseball player
Sir Richard Hawkins (c.1562–1622), English seaman, vice-admiral and Member of Parliament
Robert A. Hawkins, of the Westroads Mall massacre.
Ronnie Hawkins (born 1935), American rock singer and songwriter
Sally Hawkins (born 1976), British actress
Screamin' Jay Hawkins (1929-2000), American singer and entertainer
Sophie B. Hawkins (born 1967), American singer and songwriter
Tom Hawkins (footballer) (born 1988), Australian Football player
Wynn Hawkins (born 1936), Major League Baseball pitcher
In Fiction, Hawkins may also refer to:
Hawkins (TV series), American television series starring James Stewart
D.L. Hawkins, a character on the 2006 NBC TV Series Heroes
Jim Hawkins, a fictional character in the book Treasure Island
Robert Hawkins, a character on the 2006 CBS TV Series Jericho.
Objects named Hawkins also refer to:
Hawkins grenade
What K rates, etc. do tell you is whether or not the success is sustainable. Normally, someone who strikes out as few as Hawkins does will not have prolonged success. Clearly, however, some pitchers get by. Wang is obviously one of them. Hawkins has proven that he can be between average and outstanding despite his low K rates. For a one-year contract way below market value, it's probably worth it to see if he can continue that success for just one more year, especially when you considered that the most active member of the pen is now gone.
This whole post could be rendered useless, however, by advanced relief pitcher metrics, ones I don't know enough about and don't care to look up right now.
For this reason I think that "inherited runners scored" should be a good stat by which we can judge relievers. However, none of my favorite sites (BP, THT, BR) track this, so I can't make any comparisons.
Is Matsui + Kennedy + someone like Hilligoss that ridiculous for Cain or Lincecum?
I like the adjusted metric of Adjusted Runs Prevented, which IIRC, takes inherited runs and bequeathed runs (ex: the guys Hawkins leaves on base for Farnsworth to clean up) into account.
77 Sanchez is (was?) a well-regarded pitcher despite his otherwise poor numbers.
57 i likes me some coleman hawkins ... i just likes me the memories of a couple of junior-high dances more
70 dammit! jay was supposed to be on there, let's slide him in after jack
73 don't you mean it could be rendered "mute"?
The money quote?:
"Another baseball executive likened Hawkins to Kyle Farnsworth, in terms of his fastball."
That's all ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.
I'm going to miss the old sourpuss when he's gone.
God, remember when he barked at Joe to go sit the fuck down?
That was hilarious.
Hawkins ranked 4th on the Rockies in ARP, with 9.4. For comparison, the closest 2007 Yankee reliever was... Luis Viscaino, with a 11.0 ARP. Viz had more innings pitched, was slightly better (!) at keeping inherited runners from scoring, but got luckier when it came to his bequeathed runners.
Mo lead the team with 19.4, Joba racked up 11.5 in only 24 innings. 4th on the team behind Viz was Chris Britton, with a 5.5 ARP in only 12 2/3 innings.
Farnsworthless = -4.8.
Edwar = -10.5 (oof).
Sean Henn brings up the rear with a -14.3.
Anyway, I don't think Hawkins is going to be good. He's basically Vizcaino, for 1 year instead of three. I hope we see more of Britton.
I like Mussina. But he's not the most flexible guy in the world.
I'm with william and wsporter ... see no downside to this signing, with a one year deal and a draft pick for Viz.
I'd also agree with those saying our D is average to not-quite, last year and projecting forwards. In fact, thinking about it, 'average' might be pushing it. Where does anyone see excellence, let alone a (deserved) Golden Glove? Is Melky -that- good? Doubt it.
And will anyone join me in urging the Mets to get a move on already and chase Santana properly? There seems to be some agreement here, at least a majority, that we didn't want the Hughes/Melky/fairly-warm bodies deal to go down, with the lunatic payroll that would ensue, but surely I can't be alone in dreading the Bosox with two of the 3 or 4 likely Cy Young pitchers? I say we start a petition! Run him out of the league!
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