Baseball Toaster Bronx Banter
Fo Fizzle Santizzle
2007-12-05 05:41
by Alex Belth
Note: The Bronx Banter blog has moved to

So it doesn't look like the Yankees are going to trade for Johan Santana after all. According to reports, the Red Sox are in "serious" talks with the Twins. It sure would be uncomfortable for us Yankee fans if Santana goes to Boston. I still think the Yanks should make a deal if they can, but it's hard to complain too much if they don't, because I'm also interested in seeing how Hughes pans out.

I have to say that I love the Marlins-Tigers deal at least for aethetic reasons. The Tigers home uniforms are easily top five in the game, and arguably, the coolest uniforms, period. I think it's nifty that Cabrera, the best right-handed hitter not named Pujols, Ramirez, or Rodriguez, will be playing for a good team with a great uniform. And how about the D-Train in Motown? Dontrelle with that royal "D" on his chest? That should be fun. And they are playing for Jim Leyland? What's not to like if you are a Tigers fan? Of course, the deal makes the American League that much tougher than it already is. Jeez, think about it--Granderson, Polanco, Magglio, Cabrera, Sheff, and Guillen. That's ill.

Comments (307)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-12-05 06:00:52
1.   rbj
I'm fine with the trade not happening. It's kind of more fun to play with your own kids rather than be the big bad Red Sox who trade for the big ticket pitcher and then spend huge bucks to sign him long term.

One nit pick, Alex. The Yankees have the coolest uniform. Detroit may be second, but the pinstripes will always be #1.

I may have to go to Detroit to see a non Yankees - Tigers game.

2007-12-05 06:03:40
2.   mbtn01
You are correct -- Detroit's got the best home jerseys in the world.
2007-12-05 06:05:31
3.   RIYank
I heard Jim Souhan (Minni. Star Trib.) on the radio this morning. He had several very interesting things to say.
First, he had serious doubts about Santana's durability, especially in the long run. He observed Johan at the end of the season and said the pitcher looked like an NFL player at the end of a long season. How would he fare in October, if he has trouble bending over in September?
Second, Souhan thought it was pretty clear that Santana would really like to pitch in New York. The extracurricular money is attractive, the bright lights, the chance to win every year, and the Latino community, all make NY the place to be.
Third, Pohlan is in poor health, and he has a son cut from the same cloth who's moving into the leadership role (now why does that sound familiar?). The future direction of the team is uncertain.
Finally, the Tigers' recent blockbuster trade has made Twins fans discouraged. Nobody out there thinks Minnesota can compete with Detroit in the near future.

What does all this add up to? Maybe Santana will choose to wait out the year and plan to sign with the Yankees? Maybe it's a good thing we aren't giving up Hughes+ to get him this year?

2007-12-05 06:14:01
4.   williamnyy23
What makes the Yankees refusal to make a deal more interesting is Bill Madden's assertion that the two main drivers are Cashman's desire to not overspend (even though ownership would likely approve) and win with homegrown talent (Madden even implies that Cashman is trying to create a legacy).

Madden also reported that the Twins would have accepted Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez and Mitch Hilligoss. So, no Kennedy, Horne or Jackson, as it was reported the Yankees insisted.

Basically, Brian Cashman does not want to make this deal. He doesn't want people saying the Yankees buy success, and he doesn't want to trade prospects for which he will be given total credit if they succeed.

On the one hand, you have to admire Cashman for his conviction. However, if the desire to create a legacy is the main motivator, as opposed to winning period, then perhaps the Yankees best interests aren't being considered.

Now that the Red Sox and Twins seem to be taking a step back, it seems to me that the Twins really want Hughes. The pause with Boston may be an attempt to get the Yankees to reconsider, especially as it seems Minnesota has caved into the Yankees most recent demand. If that's the case, Cashman is really putting all his eggs in Hughes' basket. As Madden stated, Hughes had better be good.

2007-12-05 06:14:08
5.   Yankee Fan In Boston
3 i can't comment on santana's health, but boston will pay him a ridiculous amount of money, they will be competitive (a bit too competitive for my taste), the local media will give him plenty of attention, and there is a fairly large latino community here as well.

unless i am wrong about the money, i think he'll sign with boston if the twins take their measly pittance of an offer.

(i'm not bitter. not at all.)

2007-12-05 06:22:27
6.   Shaun P
4 Bill Madden a credible source twice in a decade? I don't think that's possible. =)

3 After years of reading Aaron Gleeman, I have a hard time taking Soupy Souhan seriously. Maybe that's not fair; Gleeman often excoriates his poor writing and analysis, not his information. But I can't get some of that stuff out of my head.

2007-12-05 06:23:36
7.   williamnyy23
I read the following in Joel Sherman's column and it struck me as out of place. Has anyone read one source where Hughes' work ethic was questioned. Also, can anyone point to a link touting Kennedy above Hughes?

How good is this Yankee package? Hughes is the surest thing, and he has a questionable work ethic and more of an injury history at 21 than Santana at 28. There are many baseball people who like Kennedy more than Hughes, but just as many who think he is a fifth starter. - Joel Sherman, NY Post

2007-12-05 06:35:12
8.   monkeypants
I must confess that I have not followed the non-ARod offseason too closely. Regarding the Marlin-Tigers deal: what exactly did the Marlins get out of it? Are the prospects that good?

By the way, Dontrelle is going to get pasted in the AL, though pitching in that big park might limit some of teh damage.

2007-12-05 06:37:10
9.   monkeypants
7 I would file that one under "auto-pilot journalism." When you want to poke at a seemingly unassailable player, question his "work ethic," which is basically unverifiable. For Hughes, injury record? Yep. Work ethic problems? Never heard of any.
2007-12-05 06:40:35
10.   Mattpat11
4 Well, if the kids bomb, the Yankee dynasty fizzles out and Johan Santana leads the Red Sox to three more championships, that would be a legacy as well.
2007-12-05 06:41:54
11.   Sliced Bread
0 Great headline, Alex.

7 I was also confused by that passage from Sherman. I'm guessing he meant "unquestionable work ethic," and by "many baseball people" preferring Kennedy, he means Ian's family?

Otherwise, Sherman has sources that haven't spoken about Hughes and Kennedy until now.

2007-12-05 06:45:35
12.   Shaun P
7 I've never read anything questioning Hughes' work ethic. In fact, everything I've read has said exactly the opposite.

As for injury history, the Yanks were ultraconservative with Hughes in the low minors. Whenever he had the slightest oowie, they shut him down. Santana missed almost all of 2001 with an elbow injury (can't find anything more specific).

2007-12-05 06:54:37
13.   rbj
8 Miller might be, same with Maybin, but they both need seasoning in AAA this year. De La Cruz could be a bullpen guy this year. Only one I've seen enough is Rabelo, and he's 28, spending a lot of time in AAA this past year. No prospect.

Basically it was a salary dump by the Marlins for a bunch of role players.

2007-12-05 06:54:37
14.   williamnyy23
8 Cameron Maybin is a five tool out fielder who is probably considered among the top-10 offensive prospects in the game. Andrew Miller is a power lefty who is considered a blue chip. Both pitchers were the Tigers top 2/3 prospects (the other being Porcello). For persepective, BA rated Maybin and Miller the 6th and 10th rated prospects in the game heading into last year. Both probably slipped a little since then, mostly because they are more raw than most prospects (as opposed to a Phil Hughes, who is more refined).

Of the other pitchers involved in the deal, Dallas Trahern probably has the most upside (middle rotation starter), although De la Cruz reportedly can touch 100mph.

2007-12-05 06:56:37
15.   Alex Belth
I'd still vote for the Yankees' home unis being the coolest, but I'm just saying you could make a strong arguement for the Tigers.
2007-12-05 06:58:44
16.   ms october
7 yeah i don't know where that came from and we have never heard it before.
plus after you say he is the surest thing, then make somewhat negative statements you sould use 'but' not 'and'.
i have seen in some of these articles a few "baseball people" claim they are higher on hughes than joba though

8 the two ml ready players in maybin and andrew miller are pretty well thought of. they also got some pitchers that are a few years away, who may turn into something.
on first take, i think it was pretty fair for both teams.

2007-12-05 06:58:50
17.   williamnyy23
15 Speaking of unis, I was glad to see that the Royals and Blue Jays are both bringing back their powder blues this season. I am not sure how often they'll be wearing them, but I always loved the powder blues from the 1980s, so I'll take anything I can get. Now, if the Phillies could just revive the maroon and powder blue...
2007-12-05 07:01:29
18.   Sliced Bread
No question the Tigers laundry is old school badass.
2007-12-05 07:01:57
19.   ms october
15 my dad - who is from detroit - does.
i tend to think that the best unis involve blue - i'm also a fan of the powder blues 17
2007-12-05 07:04:06
20.   Raf
13 I wouldn't be so sure about that. Miller and Maybin are pretty good. I'd hardly define them as role players.

Also, the Marlins have quite the trading history, so even though it was a salary dump, it's not like they're not getting anything in return (which is what usually happens in a salary dump).

2007-12-05 07:04:48
21.   williamnyy23
16 As strange at it might seem, I actually think Hughes might in deed still be a better starting prospect than Joba. The biggest reason why I say that is because Hughes seems to delive the ball with relative ease, which makes you think he can repeat his delivery more easily and last longer into ball games. I also like that although young, Hughes already has 4 years of pro-ball experience.

In other words, while I think the ceiling on Joba is higher, Hughes may be a better bet for long-term consistency.

2007-12-05 07:05:47
22.   Raf
17 Why did teams go away from road blues in the first place? It seemed for a while that almost every team had them (and pullover jerseys) and then they changed.
2007-12-05 07:08:18
23.   williamnyy23
David Riske has finalized a deal with Milwaukee. I was hoping the Yankees could snag him, but alas. That doesn't leave much on the market in the bullpen department, except for Ron Mahay I guess.
2007-12-05 07:10:59
24.   Raf
23 We could always wait to see who gets nontendered.
2007-12-05 07:11:12
25.   rbj
20 Yeah, meant to add role players with a couple diamonds in the rough. I hate it when work interferes with bantering.
2007-12-05 07:13:00
26.   williamnyy23
Here is a rumor the Yankees should jump on. You'd have to think the Yankees could blow that deal out of the water.

The newspaper suggests that the Indians and Pirates "developed a framework for a five-player trade" that would send Bay and Ronny Paulino to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez, Kelly Shoppach and either Cliff Lee or an unnamed pitching prospect. - rotoworld

2007-12-05 07:14:54
27.   Mattpat11
24 I'd almost rather look in our system than scour the garbage pile for mediocre relievers.
2007-12-05 07:15:01
28.   Yankee Fan In Boston
20 you can find more information on maybin here:

he was ranked 3rd on a list of 50 top prospects over at the other day.

2007-12-05 07:17:48
29.   pistolpete
>> However, if the desire to create a legacy is the main motivator, as opposed to winning period, then perhaps the Yankees best interests aren't being considered. >>

Agreed, Cashman could be looking for a certain Gene Michael-type of credibility by holding onto this generation of prospects & rookies, but ultimately doesn't that benefit the team in the long run? When the Yanks win another 2-3 titles in the next 10 years or so, does it matter who gets the credit?

Keep all the young arms you can - whether they help us in the rotation or the bullpen, it won't matter. The days of picking through the scrap heap for a Chacon or a Heredia should be over if Cashman sticks to his guns right now.

2007-12-05 07:18:09
30.   williamnyy23
22 In the Blue Jays case, I think it was because the uniform was ugly and cheap looking. For everyone else, it seems as if the entire league simply signed on to a more conservative trend of whites and grays, something that has slowly been devolving.
2007-12-05 07:18:25
31.   ms october
21 Yes, I could see that conclusion.
It will be interesting to see how JOba makes the transition back to a starter. He came to rely on his slider so much it will be intersting to see how he mixes his other pitches in again and also how he will pace himself.
Has anyone here seen Joba pitch in the minors to know if/how different his approach was?
2007-12-05 07:18:29
32.   Mattpat11
26 Bay in left and Matsui at DH?

The one thing, and this is one game, granted, but I was at a Yankee Pirates game this year, and Jason Bay played a worse left field than Matsui could imagine. Bad jumps on balls, ill advised routes, bad throws to the wrong place, it was embarassing.

2007-12-05 07:20:23
33.   williamnyy23
29 I agree....I guess my point is that I support Cashman wanting to create a legacy of long-term success by going with the kids if he thinks that's the best way. If however, he thinks Santana is a better way, but feels the acquisition would contradict his desired legacy, then I'd be concerned.
2007-12-05 07:23:25
34.   williamnyy23
32 Bay is an athlete, so maybe he can play some 1B too.

I think I was at the same game, and yes, Bay did play horribly (for the whole Yankee series in fact). Part of that could have been the bigger stage or perhaps unfamiliarity with the Stadium's gigantic left field. Aside from that incident, I think Bay is regarded as a solid LF'er, although I don't know what the numbers say.

2007-12-05 07:25:03
35.   Mattpat11
34 Was it Roger's debut?
2007-12-05 07:25:05
36.   Rob Middletown CT
Hughes has a "questionable work ethic?" WTF is that about? I've never heard any such thing. That's an odd thing to throw around w/o any sort of backup. I call bullshit.

Big deal for the Tigers. Helluva lineup they're going to put out there. I think the D-Train will get smacked around in the AL, though.

2007-12-05 07:28:15
37.   williamnyy23
35 Nope...the Friday game before...but I did make a mental note of how poorly Bay played in the series (both chasing balls and making throws). In fact, even reliable fielders like Wilson were bad in that series. I think it was just a case of the team being a little awed by playing the Yankees.
2007-12-05 07:29:53
38.   Shaun P
I think we had the "trade for Bay" discussion earlier this offseason . . . yep, here it is:

There was a BP article that showed Bay looked to be in deep trouble with the bat, but said nothing about his fielding IIRC. The link (its a free article) is in the post above.

2007-12-05 07:31:01
39.   JasonO
D-Train in Detroit...with his peculiar mound behavior he is possibly the second coming of Mark Fidrych...
2007-12-05 07:31:07
40.   pistolpete
33 >> If however, he thinks Santana is a better way, but feels the acquisition would contradict his desired legacy, then I'd be concerned >>

Ehh, I'm more inclined to think it just boils down to the personnel involved.

Yes we could have Santana and his 18-19 wins a year for the next 5-6 seasons, but then again we could have Phil Hughes for the next 10-12 seasons, and if everything works out he won't be that far behind Johan's numbers for very long.

My real concern is that the offense is built more to 'win now', and we may actually be looking at the opposite scenario in about 4-5 years when guys like Posada, Jeter, Damon et al are either gone or on the way out.

To me, that might be the best reason to go get an ace who can win 20 games in 2008, not 2010 or 2012.

2007-12-05 07:32:30
41.   Shaun P
26 Oh, and Jerry Crasnick said yesterday on the ESPN WM blog that rumor is just hot air:

"You can rule out any talk of Pittsburgh trading Jason Bay to Cleveland for a Kelly Shoppach-Cliff Lee package. That one is dead. Bay is Pirates GM Neal Huntington's main trade chip, and the Bucs aren't going to give him away after he's coming off such a down year."

2007-12-05 07:34:01
42.   Mattpat11
37 The team as a whole were embarrassingly bad. If you watched on TV, you might think so, but at the Stadium, with the ability to watch the whole field, it was undeniable. The people actually in the play were doing the wrong thing, and the people who would be out of camera shot were ALSO doing the wrong thing (covering the wrong bases and such) The other thing that stuck out to me in that game was the catcher (Who must have been Paulino) just wandering aimlessly on a play where he should have been backing up a base.

Frankly, I would have fired Tracy and his staff on the spot. There's no excuse for a team playing such horrendous fundamental baseball.

2007-12-05 07:35:36
43.   Max
4 There was something about Madden's column that didn't compute -- did we really refuse an offer of Santana for Franchise, Melky, Marquez and Hilligoss? I would think the other news outlets, given the way they've obsessively followed this story, would have reported that as well, yet I haven't seen much discussion? Everyone else seems to still be reporting that the holdup was not including Kennedy or one of the other star caliber prospects.

This is like the Beltran sweepstakes all over again...we suddenly discover religion around the payroll after it gets to astronomical levels. But as he said, all the money coming off the books next year means the payroll is only onerous for a year.

I'm thinking Madden failed to consider that still further dollars would have to be thrown around to find a centerfielder and a reliever, and that's what would have broken the bank along with Santana. His stories generally seem to get only one perspective from the multiple perspectives arguing various positions within the Yankees (though he does get interesting inside info).

2007-12-05 07:37:46
44.   williamnyy23
40 The aging offense worries me too, but you could turn that on its head and say that's why the Yankees need to develop young pitchers now, while the bats can cover some of the slack. Then, when the offensive gets old, you can spend to replace the pieces as they fall off. If you saddle yourself with too many big contracts, you might not be able to do that, especially as the Yankees seem to be much better at drafting pitchers.

One other point...I don't think you can really compare Hughes for 12 years versus Johan for 6. I think it has to be 6 years for 6 years because if Hughes is as good as we think/hope, the Twins wont be able to afford him after 2012, and the Yankees could potentially reacquire him.

2007-12-05 07:38:10
45.   Shaun P
44 Not to drag this out, but Buster Olney in yesterday's blog said:

"Here's the deal Minnesota pitched to New York last [Monday] night: P Phil Hughes, OF Melky Cabrera, P Jeff Marquez and either P Alan Horne or OF Austin Jackson. The Yankees turned it down."

FWIW, I trust Olney more than I do Madden. I understand why the Yanks said no to that offer.

2007-12-05 07:40:41
46.   JL25and3
4 He doesn't want people saying the Yankees buy success

I really hope Cashman isn't using that as a factor in making decisions.

40 if everything works out he won't be that far behind Johan's numbers for very long

That's an awfully big "if."

2007-12-05 07:41:54
47.   Mattpat11
46 I really hope Cashman isn't using that as a factor in making decisions.


2007-12-05 07:47:11
48.   ms october
40 that's basically why i am more inclined to go for santana rather than go with hughes.
2007-12-05 07:48:11
49.   vockins
re: tigers home jersey

If it didn't have the player's name on the back, it would be the best, but it does, so it is not.

Jason Bay is done.

2007-12-05 07:50:09
50.   Yankee Fan In Boston
i thought this was funny:

god's team, the rockies, the team that claims to value character and christian values, is interested in julian tavarez. that's the brawler. the guy who told reporters that he wanted to be a porn star.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-12-05 07:50:24
51.   williamnyy23
42 That was the exact same impression I got...something like, ah, that explains why the Pirates are always so bad. I wouldn't necessarily blame Tracy seems to be an organizational malaise that they seriously need to break.
2007-12-05 07:52:46
52.   williamnyy23
45 Olney has more credibility, but Madden has been a Steinbrenner mouthpiece for years. Leaking that deal would only make the Yankees look worse (hence, the headlines calling Cashman Scrooge), so I can't imagine why it wouldn't be accurate.
2007-12-05 07:54:13
53.   Yankee Fan In Boston
according to joel sherman, phil hughes' #1 fan, the yankees think mahay is too expensive. if you believe mr. sherman, they are looking at damaso marte and john grabow.

2007-12-05 07:57:23
54.   williamnyy23
53 Marte would be a good choice...and what's more, he and the Pirates have been at odds for a while, so I am sure the price would be cheap.
2007-12-05 08:01:07
55.   Yankee Fan In Boston
54 i think he'd be a good addition as well. cross your fingers.
2007-12-05 08:03:03
56.   williamnyy23
53 Sherman's blog mentions that the Yankees didn't want to approach $230mn in payroll, but the big bucks for Santana wouldn't kick in until next year, when a whopping $80mn is scheduled to come off the books. I am sure they could have worked his contract to avoid adding too much to this year's payroll.

Having said that, I think it is reasonable for the Yankees to have limits, although that does shine a spotlight on the Igawa/Pavano/Giambi contracts.

2007-12-05 08:06:05
57.   vockins
I've written this a few times already, but it's the internet, so I guess it's not truly declared until I write it at least ten times:

If the Giants are shopping Tim Lincecum, the Yanks got to get in on that.

2007-12-05 08:08:13
58.   williamnyy23
57 What could they possible offer? the Giants want an established, but young major league bat. Outside of Cano, the Yankees don't have any of that. Besides, why would you want to acquire another pitching prospect when you already have so many? There are only so many spots in the rotation.
2007-12-05 08:10:06
59.   Yankee Fan In Boston
57 please. yes. if a reasonable deal can be reached. please. thank you.
2007-12-05 08:12:08
60.   YankeeGM
I am glad we're out of the Johan raping...also, we need to stay away from Beene and Haren! Read here -
2007-12-05 08:13:41
61.   Yankee Fan In Boston reports that keith law reports that the twins have contacted the dodgers, angels and mets to gauge interest in santana.

could the sox deal fall to pieces? could the mets swoop in and take santana out of the AL, and our nightmares?

my guess is no on both counts, but i love speculation this time of year.

2007-12-05 08:14:19
62.   Mattpat11
56 At least there was some logic behind getting Giambi
2007-12-05 08:16:53
63.   Yankee Fan In Boston
62 ay-oh!!
2007-12-05 08:17:34
64.   Mattpat11
I keep hearing Hughes will be a "solid pitcher"

If Hughes becomes a "solid pitcher" This is a disaster.

2007-12-05 08:19:03
65.   yankz
60 I called you out on the RAB thread, too. Quit pimping your own blog, especially when it sucks. Also quit trivializing rape and spelling it "Beene."
2007-12-05 08:20:38
66.   williamnyy23
61 It would be prudent for the Twins to wait a while longer and see if other teams will make a better offer. Quite frankly, I was shocked that the Twins would consider a deal without Buccholz, so perhaps they are having second thoughts about the Sox' grouping of second-tier players.

If the Twins don't get a "sure thing" like Hughes/Buccholz/Kershaw, why should they make a deal. After all, it's more than just Santana they are dealing. They are essentially trading Santana and two #1 draft picks.

2007-12-05 08:20:39
67.   markp
Why does everyone who's for the deal keep talking like it's Hughes for Santana straight up? Like losing our current CF wouldn't have a negative impact, or that Kennedy and/or Horne aren't significant enough prospects to enter into the calculations?
2007-12-05 08:22:28
68.   vockins
58 Right. If the Jays are offering Rios, then the Yanks have no chance.
2007-12-05 08:23:00
69.   pistolpete
44 >>if Hughes is as good as we think/hope, the Twins wont be able to afford him after 2012, and the Yankees could potentially reacquire him >>

I don't want to take that chance, do you? The Twins could spin him to another team before that contract's even up. God forbid Boston gets him. :)

46 >>That's an awfully big "if." >>

Yeah, and Santana could blow out his elbow. You never know with any of this stuff.

2007-12-05 08:25:10
70.   Mattpat11
67 The Yankees need a frontline starter. If we're backing down because we don't want to use some "solid" pitching and a defensive center fielder, this is a disaster.
2007-12-05 08:25:18
71.   Yankee Fan In Boston
57 58 alex rios is being offered for either lincecum or matt cain says ken rosenthal, the crediblest of all sources.

2007-12-05 08:25:18
72.   williamnyy23
67 There is great debate about Melky...many feel he isn't more than a decent outfielder. As for Horne and Kennedy, well, there are reports that the other two prospects were Jeff Marquez and Mitch Hilligoss, so yes, the deal is close to Santana for Hughes.
2007-12-05 08:26:22
73.   Yankee Fan In Boston
69 "God forbid Boston gets him."

hughes grew up a red sox fan.

2007-12-05 08:32:50
74.   tommyl
So now everyone is down on Hughes? Buyers/keepers remorse?

Hughes is a "solid" pitcher already. In September of last year his ERA was in the low 2s, and the kid showed he could pitch in the playoffs. I also expect he'll regain a couple of mph on his fastball now that he is fully healthy. The question marks on Hughes are whether he can eventually stand up to a full workload and whether he'll turn into an ace. He's already a solid #3. Guys, he's 21 years old, do you know the list of 21 year olds that have been good pitchers at the ML level? I'm guessing its a short list.

2007-12-05 08:35:26
75.   Yankee Fan In Boston
74 i'm glad he's staying.
2007-12-05 08:36:42
76.   tommyl
75 Keith Law said it best the other day:

I'm confused as to how Philip Hughes went from the best pitching prospect in the game, to a guy who almost threw a no-hitter, to a guy people wanted to start throwing under the bus as he tried to re-find his groove after a pair of severe injuries. Don't believe the anti-hype--he's still a stud.

2007-12-05 08:39:04
77.   Mattpat11
76 I've seen studs flame out more times than I can mention.
2007-12-05 08:41:06
78.   markp
"there are reports" doesn't mean much. If the Yankees were balking at including Horne and Jackson (or Kennedy and, etc), how does that translate into two lower level guys.
As far as Melky being crap-he's the only guy we have who can play CF every day for us. Losing him (especially with another CF from the minors) creates another hole. Losing other arms means it's less likely we keep a good MLB pitcher.
It's not Hughes straight up by any stretch. Not even close.
2007-12-05 08:46:39
79.   tommyl
77 And Santana couldn't throw his slider in September. Its a risk either way and I'd rather be on the end of lower payroll and increased flexibility.
2007-12-05 08:47:53
80.   Mattpat11
I'm just not a fan of sending the team that wasn't good enough last year back out there.
2007-12-05 08:48:21
81.   williamnyy23
78 You are referring to "reports" and then stating they don't mean much? Which is it? According to Madden, who has historically been very close to the Yankees, the other prospects were second-tier. So, if you aren't a Melky fan (and many aren't), then by at least one account, it would be Johan for Hughes straight up.
2007-12-05 08:49:34
82.   williamnyy23
80 I am not worried about sending the same team out there because the Yankees should be better with the young arms on board for a whole season...what I would be concerned about, however, is sending the same team out there if the competition gets much better.
2007-12-05 08:52:00
83.   tommyl
80 Ok, like I said, my opinion is just that. Its not a sure thing either way and I can definitely see the argument for getting Santana. Maybe I'm too attached to Hughes. That said, the team we're throwing out there is likely to be better than last year since we won't be starting with Kei Igawa, and Pavano won't be our opening day starter. Also, in the playoffs (if we make them) you have to expect Wang to bounce back a bit, Roger won't be there to throw 2 bad innings and leave, etc. You could be looking at Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, Wang going in the postseason. Who knows? If there's one thing that Cashman and the team has been good at its making in season course corrections if things aren't going as well as planned.
2007-12-05 08:55:00
84.   tommyl
80 Also, I might be more willing to balk a bit on this year for the long term future. The real issue this year is the innings caps on the kids, which limits them to some extent. In a year or two though, I have dreams of 200+ innings from Joba, Hughes, Kennedy and Wang each. Just think of a rotation where Hughes is a #2 and Wang a #3. That has the potential to be scary good, better even than the Sox.
2007-12-05 08:56:14
85.   Mattpat11
83 I'll believe that kei Igawa is gone when he's traded.

And Wang really isn't a number one. We need someone that can go out there on the road with our backs to the walls and shut them out.

2007-12-05 08:59:56
86.   RIYank
84 I agree about that, but I'd put it a different way.
When a team thinks about blowing up its future for the sake of being competitive in the next year or two, they have to remember that you can put out a top team and still fall short. What if the Yankees were to trade away their future, get Santana, but come up short anyway in the playoffs? We all know just how easy that is to do. And then the next five or seven years start to look really bleak.

What if instead we toss out a team with some question markable youngsters whose presence makes the prospect for 2009-13 much brighter? Sure, the chance of winning the WS next year goes down. But it doesn't go to zero, and it isn't falling from .99 either.

2007-12-05 09:00:34
87.   tommyl
85 Meet Hughes, Phil and Chamberlain, Joba.
2007-12-05 09:01:52
88.   Mattpat11
I certainly hope so.
2007-12-05 09:01:53
89.   tommyl
86 Well said. And arguably it increases our chances for the coming years. I'd rather have a dynasty.

Remember, there was a time when people wanted to trade a young Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera.

2007-12-05 09:02:57
90.   51cq24
i don't know where all this hand-wringing and pessimism is coming from. hughes is a top prospect. what happened to how excited everyone was to finally have one of those? now it isn't enough? aren't you sick of going out and collecting everyone else's superstars as they turn 30?
we've got 3 very highly-regarded pitching prospects. maybe next year will be tough because they're all pretty much rookies. but so what? we've got to give them time if we want to be good long-term. santana would be great, but the cost is too much in more than money and prospects. i don't like my favorite team just trying to be an all-star team. i want us to have our own team. and for the first time in a long time we have the resources to have that. so now we're upset that we aren't getting santana?
2007-12-05 09:05:08
91.   williamnyy23
89 It's funny that you referred to "young Andy Pettitte" because I called him that(not just Andy Pettitte, but young Andy Pettitte) until around 1999. Andy turned out fine, so I think I'll go with Young Phil Hughes and Young Joba Chamberlain.
2007-12-05 09:06:44
92.   williamnyy23
90 I don't disagree...but I think we need to take a step back on Kennedy. He really isn't in the same class as Chamberlain and Hughes, so the Yankees should be very willing to trade him in the right deal.
2007-12-05 09:07:00
93.   tommyl
90 Yeah, I liken next years team to '96. A lot of rookies, question marks but a solid veteran core. We got lucky in '96, but by holding on to those guys we paved the way for '98-'03. Had we traded for Santana, than nothing short of a WS would be considered a good return.

There's lots more great players in the minors right now. We're stacked with pitchers, and we have some good position prospects in players like Jackson, Tabata, Angellini, Montero, etc.

2007-12-05 09:08:16
94.   tommyl
90 If Kennedy turns into a solid #3 starter, which arguably he already is, but in our ideal rotation is actually the 4th or 5th starter, that's one hell of a win to me. It eliminates another great weakness for us, which is the revolving door that is the back end of our rotation.
2007-12-05 09:08:47
95.   williamnyy23
93 Don't forget about the injured guys like Melancon and Sanchez, the latter who was very highly touted when healthy, and could be the answer to the bullpen concerns.
2007-12-05 09:17:03
96.   Schteeve
Unlike Steve at Was Watching, don't most people think the best way to evaluate Hughes is based on his performance like ERA+, VORP, etc versus what the radar gun says?
2007-12-05 09:17:21
97.   Mattpat11
"an nothing short of a WS would be considered a good return."

I think that should be the team motto.

2007-12-05 09:30:02
98.   Bob B
Personally, I think that if the RedSox get Santana, we can relegate ourselves to the Wild Card for the next four years. A staff of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka and Schilling are going to be a whole lot better than one of Pettite, Wang, Mussina, Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy(with the last 3 on inning limits to boot). Hughes and Kennedy better pan out as #2 and #3 type pitchers over the next decade or this will be a move we'll regret.It's great to stockpile pitching prospects but that is what they are....."prospects". For every prospect who turns out to be a Johann Santana, there are twenty who don't. For all the guys who want to keep them just remember the names Jones, Pulsipher and Isringhausen. Me, I'd make the trade in a New York Minute. Our friends up North are thrilled with Hanks "we're no longer involved" attitude.That should tell you something.
2007-12-05 09:31:41
99.   Start Spreading the News
Anyone see this? It explains how A-Rod is worth all the money he earns.;_ylt=AgD9d1SvinQoQsDXIqQI370RvLYF?slug=ys-gennaroarod112707
2007-12-05 09:33:09
100.   markp
My point about "according to reports" isn't that one is more likely than the other, it's that not one of the reports had Hughes alone going to Minn.
But the question remains: If there was only Melky and a couple non-prospects with Hughes, why didn't they make the trade?
That's easy: because the Twins never going to accept a deal with Hughes, Melky, and two low level guys.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-12-05 09:33:41
101.   joejoejoe
A trade is supposed an exchange with roughly equal value changing hands so it really isn't going to make much difference one way or the other. Of course teams have different priorities (payroll, future vs. present value, positional needs) but it's still ultimately supposed to be pieces of equal value changing sides. I can see fans in places like Pittsburgh, Minnesota or KC being mad when these trades are made because they are always dumping current stars but the Yankees are most always going to be on the end of getting better talent NOW or higher payroll so I can't really complain.

If Santana comes, I'll root for him. If Hughes stays, I'll root for him. Easy peasy.

2007-12-05 09:34:15
102.   Shaun P
96 Absolutely, especially because the radar guns the stadiums and networks use are not, shall we say, credible at all.

56 Actually - to be more precise, its $78M less Giambi's $5M buyout, less Pavano's $1.95M buyout, and less arbitration raises for Cano (~$3M or $4M), Wang (~$3M or ~$4M) Melky (say $2M), and Betemit (~$2M). That's closer to $60M. Of course, if Pettitte comes back, or the Yanks go after Teixeira, it goes down further.

2007-12-05 09:40:55
103.   Shaun P
98 Your point in general - lots of pitching "prospects" don't pan out - is sound. But there are two problems here.

It was Wilson, Pulsipher, and Isringhausen - and if you go back and look at their numbers and compare them to Hughes, they aren't even close. (Those 3 were also worked into the ground, but that's another story.)

And let's be honest - Cliff (and Gary Huckabay) are right. Hughes is not a "prospect". He's a bona fide major league pitcher.

To quote what Gary - the guy who invented "There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect" - said:

"Let's be serious, and clarify something at the same time. When I first wrote that "There's No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect," it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That's what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning—that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they're so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects—they're already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows."

2007-12-05 09:41:09
104.   Alex Belth
Take this for what it is worth...ESPN blog...

"12:15 p.m., from Peter Gammons
• Don't expect to see a Twins-Red Sox or Twins-Yankees whopper. The sense is now that Minnesota will hold onto Johan Santana."

2007-12-05 09:42:39
105.   YankeeInMichigan
A few weeks ago, the Marlins were demanding a couple of major league-ready prospects prospects for Cabrera alone. Now they are accepting a package from the Tigers that does not include a major league-ready player (except, of course, for Rabello; Maybin and Miller saw big league action last year, both neither is quite ready). It almost appears as if the Marlins were so eager to dump Willis that they gave the Tigers a discount when they offered to take him as well.

Willis may be undervalued right now. The left side of his infield last year was Cabrera and Ramirez.

Here is Jonathan Mayo's ( take on Trahern:

"During this fall, Trahern worked closely with Team USA pitching coach Marcel Lachemann on his tempo on the mound and maintaining consistent mechanics on his delivery. That could help him improve on a career that already has seen him post a 3.40 ERA in just over 500 innings. He was a 34th-round pick in the 2004 Draft, as he appeared headed to the University of Oklahoma. The Tigers were able to get him signed, and he's made steady progress up the system's ladder, reaching Triple-A this past season at age 21. Trahern is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, with a 3.58 GO/AO ratio in 2006 and 2.64 mark this past year. He gets hitters to beat a hard, heavy sinking fastball into the dirt, mixing in a slider and changeup along the way. He's been extremely durable, throwing at least 145 innings in each of his three full seasons."

Looks like Chien-Ming Wang.

76 I think that that was Kevin Goldstein.

Kennedy has often been compared to Mussina. That's a high #2/low #1 in my book.

2007-12-05 09:42:47
106.   williamnyy23
99 Interesting piece...although I think it exaggerates Arod's influence as a box office/ratings draw. The Yankees will sell out and draw big numbers if they win, period.
2007-12-05 09:44:14
107.   Shaun P
New news on the Johan front:

"12:15 p.m., from Peter Gammons
• Don't expect to see a Twins-Red Sox or Twins-Yankees whopper. The sense is now that Minnesota will hold onto Johan Santana."


Other news:

"• The Blue Jays are not going to trade A.J. Burnett, Alex Rios or Troy Glaus -- for now. Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi will probably head home today.

11:22 a.m, from Jerry Crasnick
• With the Twins in search of middle-infield help, one potential target is free agent David Eckstein. "I've always had a lot of respect for him," said Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. "He catches the ball. He knows how to play. He's a proven winner.""

2007-12-05 09:45:09
108.   williamnyy23
100 According to Madden, Cashman doesn't want to do the deal period. You might choose not to believe it, but Madden says the Yankees refused to make the deal with Marquez and Hilligoss. I happen to think that Madden is in the Yankee loop, so I give it credibility (especially because his role is not to speculate on trade rumors).
2007-12-05 09:46:46
109.   joejoejoe
104 If the Theo Epstein and Cashman don't want to bid against each other now it makes sense for the Twins to try again when one team or the other might be 3 games back of the other prior to the trade deadline. Then that extra chip the Twins want thrown in the pot to make the deal will likely be less of a sticking point.
2007-12-05 09:52:53
110.   NJYankee41
I'm beginning to think this Santana drama has played out exactly how the Yankees planned. I think if the Twins were willing to trade for Kennedy the Yanks would have done it, but since they wouldn't the Yanks threw in Hughes without intention of trading him in order to drive up the market and make it more difficult for other teams to trade for him. I'm sure they would like him for a good trading price, but could be hesitant due to the eventual monster of an extension. They could have gone out on a limb and decided that Boston would feel the same way and ultimately pass on Santana as long as they think the Yanks are out of it. Perhaps when they found out Pettitte would be back was the point they decided it was safe to throw Hughes' name out there. Both the Sox and the Yanks probably feel more comfortable bidding on him when he is a FA.

My theory is probably off, be we do have to admit one thing. We only know a small fraction of what the front office does or thinks. There is no reason to let the press know how they operate or what they really think.

2007-12-05 09:53:09
111.   OldYanksFan
How about this:
Sox offering:
Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Justin Masterson
We offer
IPK -OR- Horne, Melky, Gardner, AGon, Jeff Marquez, Mitch Hilligoss,

There are certain guys we want to hold onto, but we do have quantity. Gardner is not really needed if we have AJax.

And it aint much, but what if we pay ALL their salaries for 4 years? (around $9m?)

2007-12-05 09:59:55
112.   mehmattski
105 I don't think Willis was undervalued at all last year. His strikeout rate was down for the third consecutive year and his home run rate took a big jump despite playing in such a cavernous home park. I think there's a good chance that Andrew Miller is a better pitcher than Willis next year. Besides, next year, Willis will have an infield of Cabrera again and Carlos Guillen, a middle of the pack SS.

As for the rest of the prospects in the Cabrera trade, I don't think much of de la Cruz (he's oldish and hasn't been impressive at any level) or Rabelo (back-up catcher at best). Badenhop is a 24 year old at AA with decent strikeout numbers and control. Keith Law was much less optimistic about Trahern, saying:

"Dallas Trahern is a one-pitch guy. He sports an average fastball with plus sink and generates a lot of ground balls. But he lacks a solid second pitch and has a significant platoon split. While the ground balls are good, the Marlins have the worst defensive shortstop in baseball right now."

Worse than Jeter? Did a SABR-head really just say that?

Anyway, I revise my Yankees-analogy trade to be:

Phil Hughes
Melky Cabrera (similar to Maybin right now, but one year older, not as projectable, and not as much power)
TJ Beam (approximately equivalent to de la Cruz)
Jeff Marquez (22 y/o in AA with mild K/BB ratio)
Chase Wright (24 y/o in AA with fringy stats)
Omir Santos (almost identical hitting stats to Rabelo (career minor league OPS: .647) and same age)

2007-12-05 10:04:00
113.   OldYanksFan
"Melky Cabrera (similar to Maybin right now, but one year older, not as projectable, and not as much power)"

I thought we agreed these 2 guys aren't even close.

2007-12-05 10:08:04
114.   Bob B
Since Andy has indicated he has come back in 2009, I wish we were looking at Santana, Pettite, Wang, Chamberlain and Mussina for the next two years. Hopefully, Hanks pronouncement was like his one on Arod and he'll make a deal with the Twinks.
2007-12-05 10:08:33
115.   mehmattski
112 Overall, probably not, but they will probably put up similar stats in the next year or two. If you want to bump up on of the other players to compensate, I could deal with that. How about Ohlendorf instead of Beam? I think that makes a comparable deal, right?

The reason I did this is because most people are calling this a clear win for the Tigers, and certainly it improves their team immediately. But as we've seen over the last couple weeks, folks around here are only knowledgeable and protective of Yankee prospects. So putting it in the perspective of "what if the Yankees had given up similar prospects," who here would make the trade I outlined?

2007-12-05 10:09:11
116.   Bob B
Since Andy has indicated he has come back in 2009, I wish we were looking at Santana, Pettite, Wang, Chamberlain and Mussina for the next two years. Hopefully, Hanks pronouncement was like his one on Arod and he'll make a deal with the Twinks. With all the other pitching talent in the Minors, we should have new faces to see in 2010.
2007-12-05 10:09:50
117.   Bob B
Sorry about the repost. Darn thing hung forever.
2007-12-05 10:13:41
118.   yankz
116 He decided to come back for 2009?
2007-12-05 10:13:46
119.   YankeeInMichigan
112 Guillen is at 1st now. Renteria is the Tigers' shortstop. There have also been some murmerings about keeping Inge at 3rd and moving Cabrera to left. Inge and Renteria is a very strong left-side.

113 Maybin certainly projects higher than Melky, though his strikeouts cause considerable concern. I would put Hughes well above Miller. Both have similar ceilings (generational ace), and Miller is still dealing with command and approach issues. Miller's only advantage over Hughes is his lefthandedness.

Bottom line: The Tigers got a steal.

2007-12-05 10:14:20
120.   yankz
And Mussina's contract ends after 08. With the amount of RHP coming up, I wouldn't expect to see him return.
2007-12-05 10:14:41
121.   Bob B
118 That's what was reported yesterday, that he wanted very much to pitch in the new Stadium.
2007-12-05 10:14:47
122.   Yankee Fan In Boston
118 he hinted that he'd like to pitch in the new ballpark, but nothing definite.
2007-12-05 10:15:16
123.   Yankee Fan In Boston
121 sorry, bob b.
2007-12-05 10:16:27
124.   mehmattski
122 He can pitch in the new ball park on Old Timer's Day ;)
2007-12-05 10:21:08
125.   liam
124 "the jerk store called, and they ran out of you!"
2007-12-05 10:26:24
126.   Mattpat11
112 Renteria is at short now
2007-12-05 10:28:52
127.   Mattpat11
98 If they pan out as number 2 and 3 pitchers it will be a move we regret. Somewhere in that group there needs to be a one.
2007-12-05 10:52:17
128.   yankz
Did Phil Hughes cut Steve Lombardi in line once or something?
2007-12-05 10:56:23
129.   williamnyy23
115 I don't think that would come close to compensating. Whether true or not, the perception is Maybin is a stud, while Melky is fringe.
2007-12-05 11:01:52
130.   mehmattski
Remember when Brian Cashman used to call up teams and they would demand Eric Duncan in all trades just to get the discussion started? Times, they are a-changin'
2007-12-05 11:08:31
131.   williamnyy23
130 Think any teams are still interested? Guess we'll find out on Thursday.

For all the talk about the Tigers being a powerhouse team, look at their pitching staff after Verlander? Also, with Zumaya out for a while, their bullpen isn't so hot. You could easily argue that the Yankees still have a better offense than the Tigers...but with better ML pitching and much deeper farm system. I know Cabrera makes for a strong lineup (although, you have to ask can Mags repeat his 2007 and will Sheff stay healthy), but I think everyone is getting carried away with Detroit.

2007-12-05 11:14:36
132.   pistolpete
131 Well, make that beyond Verlander and Willis.
2007-12-05 11:15:07
133.   NJYankee41
131 I agree. That always happens when a team improves. The media goes nuts with how good they will be. There is always the underlying assumption that every player will perform at a career high level. Remember the Blue Jays 2 years ago? They improved a little with Burnett, Ryan and Overbay and all of a sudden they are AL East contenders. The Tigers are going to have a nice team, but there is no need to get carried away.
2007-12-05 11:15:29
134.   Yankee Fan In Boston
130 i'd love to see a list of the guys that were passed up in order to keep duncan.
2007-12-05 11:16:07
135.   mehmattski
131 Also, it remains to be seen if Renteria can handle the American League in his second chance. Further, I think it's more likely that Magglio Ordonez caught lightning in a bottle last year, rather than Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is 10 (!!) years younger than Ordonez, had the same slugging percentage as Ordonez in a pitchers park in a pitchers' league. Also, Here's the last five years in OPS for Ordonez:

2003: 139
2004: 114
2005: 113
2006: 112
2007: 167

One of these things is not like the other...

2007-12-05 11:17:28
136.   mehmattski
132 As I said earlier, Willis is likely going to be exposed in the AL next year.

135 Of course, I read your post 131 wrong, reading "Migs" when you said "Mags." So I'm agreeing with you, with stats.

2007-12-05 11:18:54
137.   yankz
If the Jays get Lincecum, they will have a great staff for a while.
2007-12-05 11:19:47
138.   mehmattski
134 Googling "Eric Duncan Trade," I came across this site:

"Mon, 20 Jun 2005 11:58:42 -0700

The San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea reports the Oakland Athletics are working on a contract extension with OF Mark Kotsay. However, it was reported on ESPN that the New York Yankees were pursuing Kotsay to play centerfield. Prospects P Philip Hughes and 3B Eric Duncan could be headed to Oakland in exchange for Kotsay."


Thu, 16 Dec 2004 19:56:50 -0800

"Updating a continuing story, reports New York Yankees 3B prospect Eric Duncan is one of the two minor leaguers who would be sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of a proposed trade that would send Arizona Diamondbacks SP Randy Johnson to the Yankees as part of a three-team deal."

2007-12-05 11:21:02
139.   williamnyy23
135 I don't think anyone would suggest Mags is remotely close to Cabrera as an offensive force.
2007-12-05 11:22:05
140.   williamnyy23
138 Hughes for Kotsay...perish the thought!!
2007-12-05 11:25:55
141.   Yankee Fan In Boston
138 and the rhetorical becomes tangible. nice.
2007-12-05 11:26:10
142.   mehmattski
More Eric Duncan trade rumors:

This article suggests that Duncan was part of a trade package in 2004 to get Freddy Garcia from the Mariners. Garcia ended up going to the White Sox for Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Morse- players much closer to the majors than what Cashman could offer.

2007-12-05 11:29:03
143.   pistolpete
136 >> As I said earlier, Willis is likely going to be exposed in the AL next year. >>

That's your opinion, however. If we're going by the "on paper" viewpoint, that's two major studs at the top of the rotation.

OTOH, something that could also happen is the league catches up with Verlander...

2007-12-05 11:34:59
144.   yankz
Someone at Baseball Musings suggested that the Tigers could win 119 games.
2007-12-05 11:41:12
145.   williamnyy23
144 I think you can easily paint a picture wherein the Tigers are actually worse this year? For example, let's say Miggy replaces Mags output (possible, although he's not likely to reach that level)...Mags reverts to his previous 3 year average and replaces Polanco's production...and Polanco returns to his norm and becomes Sean Casey.

All three of very likely scenarios and they add up to no real net gain. When you look at the Tiger's pitching staff, I am not sure how you can rate them so highly.

2007-12-05 11:41:22
146.   Shaun P
144 Not with a catcher who has a .294 OBP.

The Tigers could have a good pitching staff - Bonderman can be a stud, then its the 3 lefties - especially in that park. We'll see how DTrain does on the road though.

137 Halladay, McGowan, Lincecum, Burnett - that would be fearsome. The Jays offense? Not so much IMHO.

2007-12-05 11:43:44
147.   Shaun P
145 To play devil's advocate -

Adding Renteria helps. Getting Guillen off SS helps. Sheff might actually top 500 ABs. Granderson could improve his OBP. Verlander improves a bit, and Bonderman finally explodes . . .

Still holes - the 3 lefties don't impress me, and the bullpen is very iffy - but I think they'll definitely contend.

2007-12-05 11:52:04
148.   williamnyy23
146 Why can Bonderman be a stud. Is ERA+ for his career has been 72, 91, 93, 112 and 91. We are five years into his career. Even though he will only be 25, I don't think you can suggest Bonderman can be a stud (unless, by extension, you believe that anyone "can" be a stud). What's more, Bonderman ended last year with some arm troubles. That can't be a good sign for his future.

147 Adding Renteria should help, but I am not sure how much moving Guillen to 1B will make a difference. As for Sheff getting 500 ABs, well, I guess that's possible. But, will they be at the same level, or continue to show his gradual decline. As for Bonderman exploding...well...see above.

2007-12-05 11:52:48
149.   Yankee Fan In Boston
144 over how many years?
2007-12-05 11:55:57
150.   mehmattski
143 On paper, Willis' HR/9, BB/9, K/9, WHIP, ERA:

2005: 0.42, 2.09, 6.47, 1.13, 2.63
2006: 0.85, 3.34, 6.45, 1.42, 3.87
2007: 1.27, 3.81, 6.40, 1.60, 5.17

While the strikeouts have remained the same, everything else has gotten worse. Same park, mostly the same crappy team behind him... not that it matters for the first three stats.

Now, move him to the AL, where the hitters are better and the parks are smaller. I think its not unreasonable to suggest that Willis will continue his downward trend in 2008. And for all those who were concerned about inevitable injury to Johan Santana, what about a 24 year old pitcher with over 1000 professional innings already?

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2007-12-05 12:00:35
151.   51cq24
110 i think you're right.
2007-12-05 12:07:50
152.   Shaun P
148 Forget ERA+; his K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates (the things he can control, though obviously the HR/9 rates are helped by the home park) are pretty good, and for the most part, have all been trending up. (Even with injury issues last year, his K/9 was OK, ~7.5, and his BB/9 was the best of his career, ~2.5.) To me in devil's advocate mode, that suggests the "stud" potential is there.
2007-12-05 12:15:36
153.   Shaun P
Way off topic - holy sideburns Batman!

I wonder if Joe misses those things.

2007-12-05 12:26:16
154.   Mattpat11
137 I've been hearing that the Blue Jays are going to be relevant for quite some time.

Its yet to happen.

2007-12-05 12:27:15
155.   Zack
Its amazing how unaccountable these reporters are. Just look at Gammons in the last 24 hours, reporting that the deal is basically done, that Kalish was in the deal, only to be refuted on both points and then come out today and say it probably won't happen with no mention of his earlier reports..
2007-12-05 12:33:44
156.   Yankee Fan In Boston
155 there is so much BS flying around nasville this week. teams plant misinformation. i can't hold being fooled against these guys under these circumstances. they're all trying to beat each other to a story (because we're all clamoring for the latest rumor) and if they tried to verify most of these stories, the GMs might deny them even if they were true.
2007-12-05 12:34:32
157.   Yankee Fan In Boston
155 156 although i guess a mention of an earlier error wouldn't kill him.
2007-12-05 12:36:18
158.   YankeeInMichigan
145 Tiger's offense, 2007-2008:
- C Pudge (even -- can he cut down on those 9 walks?)
- 1B/SS Casey-Renteria (moderate gain)
- 2b Polanco (slight decline)
- 3b Inge-Cabrera (huge gain)
- lf Add Jones to mix (slight gain)
- cf Granderson (slight gain)
- rf Ordonez (slight decline)
- dh Sheffield (even)

So before yesterday's deal, the gains offset the declines. Now it's not even close. And if Inge stays, their bench/depth will be strong for the first time since the Sparky days.

As for pitching,
- Verlander is the real deal. Take out a tough stretch from last year and he was as dominant as anyone.
- If Bonderman's late-season struggles were the result of an injury that is being cleared up, he can be a nasty #2.
- Willis, Rodgers and Robertson all come with question marks, but at their best, they are a better-than-solid 3-4-5.

Note that the Tigers now have three lefties in their rotation. That should work in their favor against the Indians and Yankees. Alternatively, they could flip Willis or Robertson for bullpen help.

2007-12-05 12:39:49
159.   51cq24
155 honestly gammons has seemed particularly dim since coming back. sad.

158 that looks very scientific. why are you giving granderson a slight gain? why are pudge and sheffield even?

2007-12-05 13:10:57
160.   YankeeInMichigan
159 Granderson is young and his skills seem very real, so there is no reason to expect a decline. His one real weakness is in hitting lefties, and that's a skill that can be learned.

Pudge has already declined pretty dramatically. His bat control should remain, and his other offensive skills are gone already. His defense took a substantial drop last year (from all-world to better-than-average). It may drop just a bit more this year.

Sheffield gave 2-1/2 MVP-quality months last year (May 1 - July 20) and not much else on either side. At his age, I'd expect more of the same (i.e. the Highs will be as high as ever, but the Lows will get really low; maybe a bit more quantity than 2007 with a bit less quality).

2007-12-05 13:13:36
161.   Bama Yankee
153 In that picture, Joe kinda looks like Burt Reynolds from the movie Deliverance:
2007-12-05 13:17:59
162.   NJYankee41
This is from Buster Olney's little profile of Joba Chamberlain:

Around the Yankees clubhouse, Joba's workout ethic is known as "Roger-like." In fact, he plans to visit Clemens this winter and maintains, confidently, that he can go toe-to-toe with The Rocket in the gym. "If he can get me to throw up, it would be the first time," Joba said in September.

Wow, that makes me feel even better about the kid.

2007-12-05 13:40:20
163.   YankeeInMichigan
158 Let's take the Yankee offense for comparison:

C - Posada (moderate decline)
1B - Soup de jour (even)
2B - Cano (slight gain)
SS - Jeter (even)
3B - A-Rod (slight decline)
LF/DH - Matui/Damon (even)
CF - Melky (slight gain)
RF - Abreu (even)

In all, we've got a net decline due to Posada returning to earth. Pitching should be better, though everyone beyond Wang and Pettitte will be innings-challenged. The bullpen needs to come through, or it may be a long year.

2007-12-05 13:58:26
164.   E-Rocker
Look at this little rumor from

"Just got an incredible rumor from a trusted New York sportswriter. Stay with me, because this one's crazy. But rest assured that if the source wasn't good, I wouldn't post it.

Minnesota has initiated talks for a three-way blockbuster with the Twins and A's. Here's how it would go down:

Mets send Jose Reyes, Kevin Mulvey, and Hector Pellot to A's
A's send Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson to Mets
A's send Dan Haren to Twins
Twins send Johan Santana to Mets

Mets get Johan Santana, Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson
A's get Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey
Twins get Dan Haren and Hector Pellot

The source says Haren is exactly the type of player the Twins want for Santana, a cheap frontline starter. It's known the Mets would hate to deal Reyes but they would get some value beyond Santana. Billy Beane is happy because he gets Reyes for one more year than he had Haren plus longtime favorite Mulvey. And, he's out of Crosby's contract."

2007-12-05 13:59:56
165.   markp
why only a slight decline for Ordonez? He hasn't had a year like last year for five years. I'd be surprised by anything approaching last season for him.
Sheffield is more likely to decline than stay the same-he's also likely to keep getting hurt.
Granderson's year was a bit out of context. He may be that player, but he may be the guy we saw prior to last season. The real likelihood is somewhere in between the two.
Renteria's a gain over Casey? Sean has a higher career OPS. renteria has had two good seasons over the last 6-7 years (including last year), but has otherwise been a decent hitter for a SS (and a lousy hitter for a 1B).
Pudge has been in steep decline, and may be done completely by mid-season.
Detriot may be a very good offense-adding the 3B certainly helps (tho' he may be the 1B before long), but the best offense in MLB? I don't see it.
2007-12-05 14:12:47
166.   Mattpat11
164 The Twins think Haren is a frontline starter?
2007-12-05 14:13:23
167.   Eirias
109 While this certainly may change depending on how poorly the Twins do next year, Santana has declared that he will veto any mid-season trade.
2007-12-05 14:18:51
168.   YankeeInMichigan
165 Ordonez - Of course, magical seasons like this past one do not repeat themselves, but after three years of struggling, Mags seems to have "put it together again." He's only 34, so his regression may just put him back to his 2000-2003 level (approx. .315/.380/.550).
Sheffield -- Agreed, but 3 months at 90% production is about the same as 2-1/2 months at 100%.
Granderson -- We'll see.
Renteria over Casey -- Casey has declined sharply the past few years, so I'll disregard career OPS. Renteria's offense is at least average for a SS, and Guillen's is still above for a 1B.
Pudge -- I'm not sure how much farther down he can go. He's still the guy you want at the plate for a hit-and-run.
2007-12-05 14:34:48
169.   liam
164 166

i saw that rumor and thought the same thing.. are the twins getting enough? especially after the tigers make a trade like that, they have to get a little more out of that deal.

i also just dont seeing minaya pulling the trigger on reyes.. not to play race, but the mets have a huge hispanic that has to be considered when you trade away their star (beltran isn't flashy, and delgado isnt good).

i know im going to get ripped for that comment btw.

2007-12-05 14:49:21
170.   Andre
169 isn't Santana Hispanic enough? Is there a level of Hispanic-ness that is more or less acceptable?

Just teasing.

2007-12-05 14:54:32
171.   wsporter

A short URL so I didn't tiny it. I followed this out of the Times. It relates to an 1898 order out of the NL office concerning some 'deplorable' on field behavior. Apparently Grandpa could talk some smack.

Had we moved Sir Phil and IPK to the Twins I would have definitely have been moved to emulate the eloquence described therein.

2007-12-05 14:59:08
172.   RIYank
Seems like the A's get the short end of that deal. Are there financial implications that aren't obvious?
2007-12-05 15:20:25
173.   Start Spreading the News
170 Pedro doesn't count either
2007-12-05 15:42:03
174.   Mattpat11
If Cashman trades Farnsworth and Igawa now, It will go along way towards making me feel better about next year.
2007-12-05 15:54:52
175.   buffalocharlie

Santana is Venezuelan....

2007-12-05 16:08:49
176.   RIYank
175 Venezuelans aren't Hispanic???
2007-12-05 16:18:03
177.   Mattpat11
176 Ask Gary Sheffield. He'll get to the bottom of it.
2007-12-05 16:28:30
178.   Zack
172 The short end?? I would say the opposite. The A's get way way too much and the Twinkies don't get nearly enough. The A's get Reyes! They give up Haren and Johnson, and then Bobby Crosby, who is paid a ton and stinks.

That trade isn't happening. If the Twins wanted a guy like Haren, they would have taken the Hughes package...

2007-12-05 16:29:04
179.   Zack
161 Except that Joe Torre has always melted cameras...
2007-12-05 17:04:49
180.   OldYanksFan
105 "Kennedy has often been compared to Mussina. That's a high #2/low #1 in my book".
It true, in terms of look and command, he reminds us of Moose. But Mosse threw MUCH hrder when he was young. Moose = IPK + 3-5mph.
Even the optimistic see IPK as a solid/better than average #3.
2007-12-05 17:34:52
181.   JL25and3
179 Stolen from Ball Four, and very well played.
2007-12-05 18:27:45
182.   buffalocharlie

Venezuelans are not hispanic to my knowledge...

2007-12-05 18:34:59
183.   yankz
As someone who usually laughs at the overall ridiculousness of MLBTR (whose posters make the LoHud crew look like little Bill James's), let me share this priceless bit from Billy Beane:

"I rarely comment on trades publicly, but let me comment on this one: It is an absolute, total fabrication."

2007-12-05 18:37:03
184.   buffalocharlie
[175,182] .

I stand corrected, according to wikipedia link, Venezuela is a hispanic country. I imagine the percentage of Hispanic person living in the U.S. being native Venezuelans is significantly lower than 5%.

2007-12-05 18:50:30
185.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
btw peeps, not to get all pc on your asses, but it's latino these days...

and not knowing venezuelans are latino (or "hispanic")? ouch...

2007-12-05 18:51:31
186.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
And to be clear, latino means all central and south american nations, and caribbean islands, where spanish, NOT portugese, is the language of the land.
2007-12-05 19:07:43
187.   Mattpat11
Cashman talked at length about his in-house options for the bullpen. The Yankees seem pretty determined to give guys like Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens and Steven White a chance to make the team as relievers.

Igawa's going to be the new Farnsworth, isn't he?

2007-12-05 19:11:29
188.   Raf
Looks like Jose Guillen may be suspended for steroids/hgh

2007-12-05 20:01:21
189.   weeping for brunnhilde
91 Long live "Young" Andy Pettite!

Bless his heart.

Thank you for coming back, Andy. Thank you!

2007-12-05 20:26:24
190.   liam
183 to be fair joel sherman insinuates that he even heard the same rumor in passing
2007-12-05 20:49:38
191.   markp
Farnsworth is going nowhere. Girardi likes him and wants him in the Bronx next summer.
2007-12-05 21:53:23
192.   RIYank
Who says 'latino' is more PC?

In Spanish, 'latino' can include Italians (I play soccer with some Guatemalans and Italians). In English, I don't think it includes any Europeans, including Spanish people. It's also a little unclear in English whether it can include Brazilians, who are certainly Latin American, but definitely not Hispanic. But Madrillenos are Hispanic.

I think that clears everything up.

2007-12-05 22:01:41
193.   Mattpat11

Add Girardi to the list.

2007-12-05 22:24:39
194.   bartap74
Pete Abe's never ending crusade against the ghost of Josh Phelps continues...
2007-12-06 05:18:48
195.   OldYanksFan
"We have some pretty good prospects," general manager Omar Minaya said. "We have the players." Mets getting in on Santana?

1) I have to think when the yanks were out of it, if the Sox REALLY wanted Santana, they would have him by now. Were the Sox just in it to drive up the price?

2) Seemed like Cashman did a great job?

You opinions welcome!

2007-12-06 05:52:36
196.   OldYanksFan
By the way... now is a good time to judge.
1) How do we rate the Cashman trading Shelf deal?
2) How do we rate the Cashman trading RJ deal?
2007-12-06 05:54:14
197.   OldYanksFan
A funny line from Lohud:
[Sox signing Schrill for below market money]
"I'm thrilled," Francona said. "I think that's the first time Schilling ever left anything on the table."

Is Francona referring to money or food??!

2007-12-06 06:08:39
198.   NJYankee41
195 , 196 , 197 You look like you need a friend so here it goes...

195 I posted what I thought of the whole Santana thing. 110 If my theory is at all close I think Cashman did alright.

196 1) I guess the fair thing would be to see how Sanchez pans out first. I don't know how many teams were willing to spend all that money on Sheffield anyways. 2) We may have been able to get better peices. Arizona was probably very concerned with Randy's back, for which you can't blame them. We were never going to keep him and if we did what would be worth more? 10 starts by Randy or what we got?

197 That is indead funny. I believe he was referring to both food AND money.

2007-12-06 06:10:29
199.   Mattpat11
Tito seems to have a very dry sense of humor. He was probably talking about both.
2007-12-06 06:13:37
200.   OldYanksFan
Thought: We know Moose will get a shot at starting (as he should) and if he can post a 5 ERA or less, will probably keep his starts. And early in the season is probably better then later.

We know Joba and Phil are good for 150 IPs max, or 3/4 of a season.

While it goes against convention thinking, and considering Joba ended the season in the BP, can we start him in the BP (for close to 1/2 year?). Let him relieve Moose if he's bad and Phil after 5 or 6 (to keep Phil's pitch count down).

This way we have BP help in the first half, but more importantly, Joba and Phil should be able to pitch 80% or more of the second half. If Joba logs 50 IPs in the BP, he's basically good for 15 starts in the 2nd half.

Joba and Phil are only good for 25+/- starts each, and that doesn't include PS games. We want them both strong for the 2nd half and PS. So what's better? Joba in the pen to save him and Phil innings in the first half? Or have the both as starters and have to skip 7-8 games each throughout the season?

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2007-12-06 06:19:41
201.   monkeypants
196 Regarding the Sheffield trade: overall, Sheff had a fine year (120 OPS+), but not amazing for a DH and well below his career standards. The inevitable delay is setting in, I think. But, would Sheff have contributed in 2007? Of course. On the other hand, offense really wasn't the problem last year. If we plug Sheff in as the more or less full time DH for last year, then we have to take ABs away from Matsui (123 OPS+) or Damon (that WOULD have been an improvement). In the end, I'm not sure how many wins he would have created, nor if he would have made any difference in the playoffs, given the pitching collapse.

Normally I go on about run differential, so usually I would argue that the more runs scored (ie, adding Sheff) the better. But I think that in this case, since he would have been gone after the season anyway, and since the Yankees made the playoffs and probably would not have caught the Sox anyway, and the playoffs probably would have turned out the same--even if the Yankees get NOTHING from the prospects they traded for, the deal will at worst go down as a wash. In the long run, it will be forgotten.

2007-12-06 06:24:30
202.   Shaun P
200 OYF, you asked this question before, and I answered it before, so I'll answer it again.

You can't start Joba in the bullpen and then switch him mid-season, because the preparation for relieving and for starting is so different - and puts such different stresses on the arm. You'd basically be guaranteeing his arm went to hell.

Going the other way (starting to relieving) isn't quite as problematic, but again, with such a young arm, remember how careful the Yanks were.

For all the hype around Joba - thanks RSPN for feeding that monster - the best thing for him is to start the year in extended spring training, and then make a few starts in the minors, to stretch his workload back up to starting. Then he can come up in late May/early June - probably to replace Moose. To keep Hughes' workload down, you give him the 5th slot in the rotation, so he only pitches a handful of times before June 1 as well. QED.

2007-12-06 06:44:16
203.   Shaun P
Joe Sheehan tells what happened when he found himself with a chance to speak with his childhood hero, Don Mattingly:

2007-12-06 06:49:50
204.   monkeypants
200 202 They could use Joba both as a starter and out of the pen, if they "Santana" him, like Minnesota did. Look at Santana's Age 23 and Age 24 seasons:

Year, G, GS, INN
2002, 27, 14, 108
2003, 45, 18, 158

2007-12-06 06:52:35
205.   Mattpat11
200 I have this awful feeling that this is going to lead to Kei Igawa starts.
2007-12-06 07:08:30
206.   williamnyy23
195 If Santana stays in Minnesota, then Cashman played his hand well. It still remains to be seen though. Ultimately, if Madden was right and the Twins weren't looking for much more than Hughes and Melky, he still might have to answer for not pulling the trigger.

196 The RJ deal was great because it removed what was obviously damaged goods from the team and saved $12mn. If Ohlendorf pitches one good half season, it will be gravy.

The Sheffield deal ultimately looks like it is going to work out. In the first half, it looked like the Yankees made a mistake not keeping Sheff's bat, but now that they survived 2007, it's a moot point. He would have been gone this year anyway. You could ask whether the Yankees could have gotten more, but it seems as if Detroit was the perfect fit (and as later deals have proven, the most willing to deal prospects). What's more, I still have high hopes for Sanchez, and think he has a chance to be a very big contributor out of the bullpen. TJ surgery was a setback, but not a death blow (see Rivera, Mariano).

200 202 Other pitchers have transitioned from bullpen to rotation midseason, so it's not out of the question. Of course, you'd have to come up with a viable plan for doing it. With as well as Chamberlain pitched in set-up, I am sure the temptation would emerge to just keep him there until making a switch would be too late.

Personally, I'd like to a break down like this Wang and Pettitte (33 starts, every 5th day), Kennedy (28 starts, he pitched a lot more innings last season and is older), and Moose, Joba and Phil (22 starts).

The hard part would be determing how best to skip starts for Moose, Joba and Phil. Perhaps you could have them pitch 2 out of every three turns: Turn 1: Andy, Wang, IPK, Joba, Phil - Turn 2: Andy, Wang, IPK, Joba, Moose - Turn 3; Andy, Wang, IPK, Phil, Moose - Repeat

2007-12-06 07:45:03
207.   YankeeInMichigan
201 206 For a player of Sheffield's age, for whom injuries are to be expected, a rate stat like OPS+ is of limited use. A counting stat such as VORP should tell us a lot more:
- 2004: 53.0
- 2005: 47.5
- 2006: 7.0
- 2007: 30.4

2006 was an outlier due to the knee injury, though another major injury is certainly not out of the question. Sheffield's overall 2007 VORP was about what I expected. I'd expect similar in 2008 and a sharp decline in 2009.

For the Yankees, getting rid of him was a no-brainer:
a) Right field and DH spots were occupied
b) If they didn't give him an extension, they would have had to deal with his grumpiness.

So the only question is whether they got maximum value in return. Only time will tell.

For the Tigers, Sheffield was a great fit, as they needed another professional hitter in the lineup. Still, if Shef fades fast over the next two years and Sanchez and Whelan contribute to a championship in the Bronx, they'll be regretting this one in Motown.

2007-12-06 07:55:12
208.   Shaun P
204 206 You guys are right. I should clarify 202 to say "the difference between short relief and starting". In other words, if they used Joba exclusively in long relief - like the Twins did with Santana way back when - no issues at all.

I think we all know that would never happen; if he's in the pen, he'll be a setup guy, and will never be able to start in 2008.

Anyone know anything about Bo Hall? The Yanks took him in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft:

2007-12-06 08:41:46
209.   markp
If it's the same guy, he put up mediocre numbers in AA at age 26 last year. The only thing he seems to have going for him is a high K/9. He's not even a lefty.
2007-12-06 08:53:46
210.   Yankee Fan In Boston
here's another rumor about a potential trade that will never happen:

matsui to giants for a starting pitcher.

(the guy has a NTC.)

2007-12-06 08:59:38
211.   Shaun P
210 Matsui for Cain? Or even better, Matsui for Lincecum?!?! Drool.......

You're right though, it would never happen. Sigh.

Hey wait, what about if the Yanks were to include Moose? The Giants love guys over 35! =)

2007-12-06 09:04:01
212.   Yankee Fan In Boston
211 if anything close to anything you suggested comes to pass, they should name the new stadium after brian cashman.

and the stadium after that, too.

2007-12-06 09:13:42
213.   SF Yanks
210 Yummy. I'll take either, especially Lincecum. Wanger, Pettitte, Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, Lincecum, Moose....wait that's 7. Oh well, it's time to try new things right? 7 man rotation anyone?
2007-12-06 09:17:49
214.   Shaun P
213 That's why the Yanks could toss Moose in to sweeten the deal!

Or, to make Mattpat's day, give the Giants Igawa and Farnsworth (they need a closer, right) - though Igawa might not be old enough for the Giants. ;)

2007-12-06 09:20:47
215.   51cq24
i'm fine with lincecum setting up for mo
2007-12-06 09:25:21
216.   wsporter
214 MFD Should we consider tossing in Pavano, a box of gauze and a warm sweater just to make sure that SF can't resist? :-)
2007-12-06 09:33:43
217.   OldYanksFan
"I think we all know that would never happen"

This statement bothers me for a few reasons.
1) Big Joe is out and Little Joe is in. I think Girardi can be trusted to stick to a plan.
2) Last year we had "Joba Rules" (although Joba still Rules!) so the FO can get involved in BP management for Joba
3) Aside from our government, if the FO really wants to make a plan and stick to it, I see NO reason why they can't

I wonder If Joba could be used somehwat 'Gooselike'. Designate him for 40-45 3-4 inning appearances. (130-140 IPs). NO short stints, no extra warm up sessions. Let Phil go 5 and if the game is 2 runs either way, have Joba go 3, or all 4.

Same with Moose. A few for IPK. Tell him to pitch the first inning or 2 like a starter(ie: pitch smart, but pace yourself). We can get 30 - 5 inning starts from Phil.

Again, I don't know if this has value or is realistic. My guess is the Yanks will save IPs by having Horne, Iggy and a few other guys take some starts, meaning Phil, Joba and to a small extent IPK may be off schedule quite a bit. Will being off-schedule cause less effectiveness? Would we be giving away some wins by having these 'spot starts' from the (littler) kids?

They said they wouldn't do a 6 man rotation, but this would certainly save much of the IPs we need for Joba and Phil.

It seems to me since we want Joba to pitch 130 IPs or more, and how effective he is out of the BP, that 40 3-4 inning appearances would help us win/hold a bunch of games and get everyone's IPs where they need to be. The question is is this is line with Joba's development as a starter.

Hopefully the days of using 4 pitchers to pitch the last 4 innings is GONE!

PS: This is a little like how we used Phil in the PS.

2007-12-06 09:35:26
218.   Mattpat11
Abraham seems to think it would be Matsui for Lowry. If we made that deal, whomever signed off on it should be shot.

It violates my "don't acquire mediocre pitching" rule and leaves us wihout Matsui's production.

2007-12-06 09:39:00
219.   Shaun P
216 Sure, why not? Pavano won't care. I bet the Yanks could trade him to the NY Football Giants for a bag of used punting balls - and as long as someone pays for his rehab and sends his paycheck, he'll be A-OK with that.

I think Cano and Melky would have a grand time fielding punts during spring training, don't you?

2007-12-06 09:48:49
220.   RIYank
218 I have to agree; at this point, mediocre pitching is our strong suit, so to speak. We should be dealing it away for someone who could be useful.
2007-12-06 09:49:04
221.   Shaun P
218 I don't know what's crazier, that the deal would be for Lowry, or that Pete Abe thinks it would take Matsui and a prospect. Unreal.

PS - Why ERA+ is a poor way to evaluate a pitchers (when they are in the same league)

Noah Lowry, ERA+ 2007: 113
Tim Lincecum, ERA+ 2007: 111

PPS - Why ERA+ is a poor way to evaluate pitchers (when they are in different leagues):

Noah Lowry, ERA+ 2007: 113
Andy Pettitte, ERA+ 2007: 110

Is there anyone here who would have rather had Noah Lowry on the mound instead of Tim Lincecum or Andy Pettitte in 2007?

2007-12-06 09:53:24
222.   Mattpat11
220 I don't think we should ever try to acquire mediocre pitching. Use the free agent market and trade market to acquire good pitching. If you have decided to settle on a mediocre->bad 4 and 5 starters, don't waste money and resources and obligate yourself to use them when they bomb. Just find someone in your own system.
2007-12-06 09:56:54
223.   seattleyank
What about something like Matsui and Horne for Lincecum?
2007-12-06 10:01:00
224.   JimCobain
223 I was thinking the same thing. Matsui is not dead weight. Might not be able to make that trade for just Horne. Maybe a Matsui, Horne+ or a Matsui/Kennedy. Do you make that last one? Or is it Matsui and Horne and some cash?
2007-12-06 10:03:26
225.   standuptriple
I've often wondered why the Giants don't make a splash with a Asian player. Matsui not only plays every day (better for ad revenue than SP) but he plays LF (which I believe is open for them now) and is capable of putting balls in the Cove (which is the main draw for that stadium). Matsui should be on their radar, but I agree, Lowry is not enough. I wouldn't mind a Matsui/Farns OR Moose for Lincecum or Cain though (prefer Cain).
2007-12-06 10:07:25
226.   Yankee Fan In Boston
225 and matsui played for the yomiyuri giants before he came to the yankees.
2007-12-06 10:08:05
227.   cult of basebaal
lincecum was reportedly in play for alex rios ... now, matsui is not rios-caliber, but perhaps there are other elements we can add to sweeten the deal ... i'd do matsui, and horne and something reasonable for lincecum in a heartbeat
2007-12-06 10:14:54
228.   wsporter
Oh No! Here we go again?
2007-12-06 10:15:26
229.   cult of basebaal
228 eh?
2007-12-06 10:40:56
230.   51cq24
we're not getting lincecum
2007-12-06 10:42:18
231.   Shaun P

Rios, 2007: .297/.354/.498/.852
Matsui, 2007: .285/.367/.488/.855

That's awfully close, don't you think?

Of course they are 7 years apart in age, and Rios is (in theory) just entering his prime while Matsui is likely past his. And Rios is a very good RF while Matsui is a decent at best LF. Still, Matsui would be the far bigger draw for the Giants.

In any case, this is moot, because why would Godzilla ever waive his NTC to go from the Yankees to a team destined to finish dead last the next 2 years?

2007-12-06 10:48:32
232.   Rob Middletown CT
"Abraham seems to think it would be Matsui for Lowry. If we made that deal, whomever signed off on it should be shot."

I totally agree. Lowry is mediocre in the NL West. Matsui has his faults, but is still an asset. Why trade for a fringy pitcher? We just traded one of those away (Clippard, whose minor league stats > Lowry's).

"i'd do matsui, and horne and something reasonable for lincecum in a heartbeat."

Yeah, but Matsui isn't just "not Rios-caliber" - he's also old and busted (I exaggerate), whereas Rios is young.

If that deal could be done, I think you almost have to make it... even though it means counting on Giambi (something I haven't done in a while).

2007-12-06 10:49:50
233.   Rob Middletown CT
Then again, Horne isn't exactly chopped liver.
2007-12-06 10:51:10
234.   wsporter
229 "I would trade ..."
2007-12-06 10:53:11
235.   ny2ca2dc
Man, are you guys kidding, I'd trade IPK and Horne and Matsui for Cain or Linecicum. Probably more too. Slim Tim & Cain are top of the rotation starters, and Cain is already prepared to throw a goodly number of innings, tossing 200 last year & 190 the year before that. Those guys aren't coming for that package, though.
2007-12-06 10:55:23
236.   mehmattski
221 ERA+ is simply a way to compare a player's ERA to the league he was in... it's especially made for the case of someone looking at Noah Lowry's 3.92 ERA and thinking it was "good," when the 2007 National League had an ERA of 4.44 and so Lowry was simply above average.

Pettitte, meanwhile, had a 4.05 ERA in a league where average was 4.47, so Pettitte had similar results relative to league average in 2007 as did Lowry (and Lincecum). Comparing pitchers from different leagues, one should realize that average for one league does not equal average for another.

Now, when talking about how to project pitchers into the future, ERA+ is not all that great, since we know that HR/9, K/BB, and K/100 pitches are much better at staying constant than is ERA (since defense is an issue). What ERA+ is showing is that, in 2007, you could trade the results of Noah Lowry for Andy Pettitte and regular season of both the Yankees and Giants would not have played out much differently.

2007-12-06 11:00:14
237.   Rob Middletown CT
Lincecum threw 146 last year, so he would be good for ~175 or so. Cain... 200 innings at the age of 20. Yikes.

I dunno if I'd do IPK+Horne+Matsui, though. That's not necessarily a comment on what Cain and/or Lincecum are "worth" but rather what it would do to the Yankees.

What I meant when I said "I guess you have to do it" is that if you can rip the Giants off, you are pretty much obligated to do so. A "fair" deal, on the other hand, doesn't necessarily make sense for the Yanks.

2007-12-06 11:05:33
238.   yankz
Guys, relax. How often does Pete's idle speculation pan out?
2007-12-06 11:32:24
239.   OldYanksFan
"New Dodgers manager Joe Torre had knee replacement surgery this week."

No wonder his BP management was so shitty!
The poor guy was injured!

2007-12-06 11:34:48
240.   Yankee Fan In Boston
it sounds like people's faith in peter gammons has nosedived, but he says that mahay says he's narrowed his choices down to the royals and the yankees. (see 12:10)

(olney also mentions the giants' supposed interest in matsui.)

2007-12-06 11:50:53
241.   ny2ca2dc
Gammons also says this, "The Padres believe they can re-sign Milton Bradley, and they also are pursuing Kosuke Fukudome for an outfield spot. Bradley, who suffered a knee injury at the end of last season after tangling with manager Bud Black, is making progress in his rehabiliation."

Anyone else find his description of the circumstances of Bradley's injury objectionable. The guy was injured when he tripped over Black, who was restraining him after Bradley was baited by the Ump. Gammons wording makes it sound like he was injured in a fight with his Manager. I expect more from Pete, even in a blog posting.

2007-12-06 11:57:10
242.   OldYanksFan
Next year, assuming Andy retires, as we sit now, IPK is our #4 and Horne our #5. I think this is why Cashman was so adement about not losing Horne for Santana. He sees him in the rotation next year, and maybe good for a few spot starts this year.

If ERA+ ONLY compares you to your own league, than it is useless for comparing pitchers from different leagues. Don't we need a stat to equalize between leagues?

2007-12-06 11:57:29
243.   Yankee Fan In Boston
241 wow. i missed that. i was just skimming for yankees news. that is pretty awful.
2007-12-06 11:59:19
244.   OldYanksFan
"Report: Bonds is training, would like to play in 2008"

I say get 'em. Can probably be had for $4m or so. Will take lots of heat off of ARod.

2007-12-06 12:04:35
245.   51cq24
242 by comparing a pitcher to his league it does somewhat equalize, unless one league is better all-around than the other.
2007-12-06 12:09:34
246.   Yankee Fan In Boston
244 that is the day i cease to be a yankee fan. the thought of him in pinstripes turns my stomach. besides, rodriguez had an alright year, even with all of the heat.
2007-12-06 12:10:36
247.   Shaun P
236 I agree on using HR/9, BB/9, K:BB, and K/whatever in terms of projecting pitchers into the future. And that its "simply a way to compare a player's ERA to the league he was in."

But ERA+ has also been used to evaluate how "good" a pitcher is overall. To me, that's not a proper use for the metric. HR/9, BB/9, K:BB, and K/whatever are better.

ERA is too dependent on the quality of the team defense, and how errors get scored (which is awful); what the reliever(s) who come into the game after the starter do; and what the home park does in terms of run suppression.

Noah Lowry's ERA+ of 113 shouldn't indicate he was somehow a better pitcher in 2007 than Tim Lincecum (or Andy Pettitte). It completely ignores Lowry's horrible 1.0 K/BB and 5.02 K/9 and BB/9 (he walked 87 and struck out 87 in 156 IP). Put Lowry in a neutral run scoring environment with a neutral defense, and he flat out sucks. However, his ERA+ might cause this very important fact to be overlooked.

2007-12-06 12:18:35
248.   pistolpete
244 Ladies and gentleman, the water-spitting post of the day!
2007-12-06 12:24:48
249.   williamnyy23
240 Competing with KC? Come on Cash...seal the deal!

242 It's tough to equalize between leagues because you are comparing different populations (almost like comparing Japan to MLB). Incredibly, the AL is so much better than the NL now, that yes, it does make league adjusted stats less useful when comparing across the AL and NL.

244 I would sign Bonds in heartbeat for a deal like that...all things aside, he can still hit...period. Quite frankly, I find the moral stand that most people take on Bonds to be quite absurd, but for that reason, it would probably be poision to sign him.

247 First off...ERA+ is adjusted for park, so it does create a "neutral run scoring environment". Those other factors, however, can't really be accounted for...they amount to good luck/bad luck (things like DIPS try to normalize that). Whether it was by luck or not, Lowry WAS as effective as Pettitte and Lincecum. Now, whether he'll be as effective again in the future, well, as you suggested, there are other stats at which to look, especially for a pitcher without a long track record.

2007-12-06 12:33:43
250.   YankeeInMichigan
Pete Abe is suggesting Aurilia (for the 1st base mix) along with Lowry. .252/.304/.368? Come on Pete. That's worse than Minky.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2007-12-06 12:35:41
251.   williamnyy23
250 Pete Abe is no better than his colleagues...enjoy the access he provides and take the opinions for what they are worth.
2007-12-06 12:38:15
252.   underdog
212 - "if anything close to anything you suggested comes to pass, they should name the new stadium after brian cashman."

And SF should bury Brian Sabean under their stadium. As soon as it happened.

2007-12-06 12:42:32
253.   Yankee Fan In Boston
244 re: bonds and the "Moral Stand"

i am guilty of this. i realize it is an arbitrary line i have drawn, yet i still can't stand the guy. (although i admit i haven't really tried all that hard... or at all.)

people have sentimental attachments to players all the time. "this guy is my favorite player." well, if all we're supposed to base that upon is numbers, well, talking baseball would sure be boring.

bonds is my least favorite player. i can't stand him. i know many people would argue that point. don mattingly was my favorite player when i was a kid. people's opinions differed on that as well.

i see this as two sides of one coin and i feel that someone calling my dislike of the man absurd to be absurd. it is just an opinion, nothing more.

(for the record i have stated that i'd drop the yankees if several other players ever joined the team. kevin millar was on there. this isn't just about steroids, it is about douchbaggery, which is also an inexact science.)

2007-12-06 12:52:31
254.   mehmattski
249 I agree with you on almost all points- on getting Bonds, on the weird moral stand people have against Bonds, on comparing leagues, and on ERA+

But... Ron Mahay? Why is this guy exciting to anyone? A career K/BB ratio of 1.7? The 4.4 BB/9? The fact that he's 36? Just like Dan Haren's 2007 shouldn't fool anyone into thinking he's a dominant starter, Ron Mahay's 2007 ERA should not trick anyone into thinking he's a decent reliever.

The best way for the Yankees to improve the Bullpen is to get guys who have high strikeout rates, along with low walk and HR rates. With the Yankees' defense, I think that's essential. Don't waste time with someone just because he happens to pitch with his left hand. Spend money on someone who pitches well, above all else.

Try this thought experiment: against David Ortiz with the game on the line, would you rather have Fransisco Rodriguez, or Mike Stanton?

2007-12-06 12:54:49
255.   Mattpat11
254 Well, Mike Scioscia would say Stanton, and apparently he's a genius.
2007-12-06 12:57:08
256.   Mattpat11
241 I don't know why anyone thinks Gammons is going to do anything halfway worthwhile at this point.
2007-12-06 13:01:06
257.   mehmattski
FWIW, Mahay has faced David Ortiz 7 times. Ortiz is 1 for 7 with a solo homer, five groundouts, one flyout, and a strikeout.

Mike Stanton has faced David Ortiz 6 times, with two groundouts, two flyouts, a double and a single. Only the last two ABs (single and groundout) have come since Ortiz became Big Papi.

2007-12-06 13:03:38
258.   vockins
254 D. Ortiz v. F. Rodriguez lifetime:

D. Ortiz v. M. Stanton lifetime:

2007-12-06 13:03:50
259.   williamnyy23
253 Disliking Bonds is one thing...swearing off the Yankees is another. Of course, coming from someone with an absurd level of interest in the Yankees, I'd take my opion with a grain of salt. If Charlie Manson signed with the pinstripes and could hit liek Bonds, I'd still root for the team.

All kiding aside, I think it's ok for me to find moral indignation over Bonds absurd, and it's certainly ok to feel my stance is absurd. I just think I'd have firmer ground to stand on than the innate dislike that drives so many people who feel the way you do. Of course, that's probably irrelevant, because everyone is free to their own opinion.

2007-12-06 13:06:53
260.   mehmattski
258 Fransisco Rodriguez has faced Ortiz all of five times in the regular season. Twice he was issued an intentional walk, and another time he was thrown multiple pitches out of the strike-zone (which shows as "blocked by catcher" in the B-R record). K-Rod also gave up a double and a flyout.

In the Post-Season, K-Rod has faced Ortiz five times and has intentionally walked him twice, and gotten a strikeout, single, and lineout the times Sciosia has allowed K-Rod to pitch.

2007-12-06 13:09:16
261.   monkeypants
259 So, there is no limit to whom the Yankees would sign without negatively influencing your interest in the team?

Less seriously, I keep having these amusing images (well, maybe amusing only to me) of Bonds wearing the old-fashioned prison outfit--you know, the striped suit with ball and chain--but wearing a Yankees cap. Sorta like pinstripes, right?

2007-12-06 13:10:46
262.   ny2ca2dc
254 Try this thought experiment: against David Ortiz with the game on the line, would you rather have Fransisco Rodriguez, or Mike Stanton?

Incomplete experiment. We ran into this in the post season vs the Indians - no lefties in the BP. I'm all for using a good righty over a bad lefty to pitch to a LHB, but if you're in the situation we find ourselves in - shitty rightys and shitty leftys, might as well take the platoon advantage. When it's Veras or Villone vs. Granderson or Sizemore, who have big platoon splits, use the lefty.

2007-12-06 13:12:33
263.   Mattpat11
Heyman is suggesting Matsui for Lowry as well.

I've had problems with some moves Brian Cashman has made. You all know that. We disagree on some of those. If he trades Matsui for Noah frigging Lowry, that is absolutely unforgivable.

2007-12-06 13:14:07
264.   williamnyy23
254 Mahay isn't a savior, and I wouldn't sign him for much more than 5mn/2 years, but he has been a very effective reliever (very impressive ERA+ in 5 of the last 7 seasons) who handles lefties well (.693 OPS against), without getting hammered by righties (.752 OPS against).

Mahay would be a solid pick up...not a great...but solid, especially when you consider the state of the Yankees' bullpen.

2007-12-06 13:14:46
265.   ny2ca2dc
263 I agree; unless there was some sense that Matsui isn't going to recover from the knee problems, why trade Mats for a #5-in-the-AL starter, young or not... Maybe if Mussina could be flipped for prospects or something (ya right), but this is kind of baffling.
2007-12-06 13:16:47
266.   Mattpat11
265 There's no acceptable reason to go out of your way to get Noah Lowry. There has to be someone in our system that can pitch as "well" as Lowry
2007-12-06 13:20:12
267.   Yankee Fan In Boston
259 i see your point and appreciate your attachment to the yankees. i'm borderline obsessed myself. i've never been a "the ends justify the means " kind of guy. there is no right or wrong here, but i do see both sides.

that said, chuck manson had a decent fastball. we could use a guy like him in our pen right now. wait... isn't julian tavarez being shopped?

2007-12-06 13:22:14
268.   ny2ca2dc
263 265 266 Here's some more info from the ESPN blog:
3:45 p.m., from Jayson Stark
• A source says the Giants did call the Yankees about Hideki Matsui. They're offering their starting pitchers (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain or Noah Lowry) for bats, but they are just exploring to see if there is a match. Matsui has a full no-trade clause, and it isn't known whether he would waive it to go to San Francisco or anywhere else.

Wow, if the 2 studs are really in the discussion, holy shit. How exciting could that be.... Maybe Damon/Matsui, Mussina, a steaming pile of bullshit, and cash would get one of the studs. I also hear pigs are flying in Tennessee.

2007-12-06 13:24:49
269.   Mattpat11
268 Put Farnsworth and Igawa in the deal.

And Christ help us, just say no to Lowry

2007-12-06 13:26:27
270.   Yankee Fan In Boston
264 i'd rather have them go after damaso marte.
2007-12-06 13:29:35
271.   williamnyy23
261 Not exactly, but close. Taking steroids and lying about it doesn't come close to reaching my limit.

263 He admitted that's pure speculation. He was also throwing around names like Sanchez (who does have a very nice arm).

2007-12-06 13:33:01
272.   Mattpat11
271 Sanchez seems to have issues keeping men off base and from scoring.

And bringing Lowry on to this team hurts it regardless of who we trade for him.

2007-12-06 13:36:35
273.   Yankee Fan In Boston
heh. eric gagne might accept the red sox's offer of arbitration.

this makes me smile.

2007-12-06 13:48:10
274.   standuptriple
273 And why wouldn't he? After his performance I'm surprised they even offered it. A little too greedy for that draft pick Theo?
2007-12-06 14:03:57
275.   Bama Yankee
261 monkeypants, this one is for you:
2007-12-06 14:11:00
276.   monkeypants
275 hahahaha

: )

2007-12-06 14:47:26
277.   Shaun P
269 Hey, I already suggested that - and with you in mind! 214

264 Looking at advance reliever metrics . . .

Adjusted Runs Prevented:
2007: 8.2 (85th in MLB)
'07 Yankee comp: Vizcaino

2006: 0.2 (tied for 277th in MLB)
'07 Yankee comp: Jose Veras

2005: -7.2 (tied for 603th in MLB)
'07 Yankee comp: Farnsworth is closest without going over

2007: 0.621 (137th in MLB), LEV of 0.73
'07 Yankee comp: Bruney has a LEV of 0.77 but a - WXRL, so image if Bruney pitched in the same situations, but pitched well

2006: 0.245 (187th in MLB), LEV of 1.01
'07 Yankee comp: Scott Proctor

2005: -0.308 (th in MLB), LEV of 0.76
'07 Yankee comp: Brian Bruney, but a little worse

This does not inspire confidence in me.

2007-12-06 15:26:04
278.   Mattpat11
Some man just called Mike and the Mad Dog LIVID that Francessa and Russo didn't think the Dodgers would play the Juan Pierre in left field and try to trade for "Whatdoyoucallit" He is a big fan of this "Whatdoyoutcallit" as he screamed his name about six times. As near as I can tell, "Whatdoyoucallit" is a top of the line pitcher. The Yankees should look into him.
2007-12-06 15:41:35
279.   OldYanksFan
Guillen and Gibbons were just suspended for HGH. There have been a few dozen(?) already suspended for PEDs. The Mitchel report will add dozens more. And that will still be just a small subset of players who have used PEDs over the years.

It ain't right. I wish MLB had its shit together and did something before they became rampant, and shewed years of baseball stats.

After the Mitchell report, all the hatred for all those players known to have done PEDs put together wouldn't even fill Barry's oversized cap. It's fine to hate Barry, but people should realize it's 100 times overkill. He ain't no different from any other one who has been caught, will be caught, or used and won't be caught. And most of those guys got about 3 seconds of our attention.

But he's an asshole and broke Aaron's record. And Big Mac's/Maris's record. And many of Babe's records.

And it's always much easier to totally ignor an issue but express our indignation by hating ONE scapegoat then, dealing with the entire population of the guilty and the political ramifications that follow. When asked what was done about the horrid PED issue in baseball, we can always say "I hate Barry Bonds, that asshole!"

With PEDs, he's the greatest player of the modern era. Without PEDs, he's in the top 5. When he comes to the plate, there is an electricity generated, a 'fear', that Papi, ARod or anybody else can't touch. It's electric. I don't like the man, but I admire the talent.

Hate all you like. Root for the Mets, But IF (and it won't happen) we signed him, and you got to see him bat live at the stadium, you would feel the electricity and be thrilled. It's thrilling to watch him take a bat and try to hit a baseball. That's a bottom line.

2007-12-06 15:58:13
280.   monkeypants
279 "...and broke Aaron's record. And Big Mac's/Maris's record. And many of Babe's records."

But that's the point. It's not a matter of one scapegoat--it's not like he gets burned so that others might be freed from their sins. Rather, it's the natural--and reasonable--tendency for those at the top of the pyramid to receive the most scrutiny. If Joe Shlobotnik uses 'roids and raises his his .091 BA to .111, it is equally wrong. but the stakes are not as high. If Barry used 'roids and then systematically smashed a whole pile of records--it IS a bigger deal and people SHOULD be more upset (if they are going to be upset at all). For as unimportant as sport is in the grand scheme of things, what Bonds (supposedly) did had historical implications, at least within the context of the professional sports universe.

And by the way, I DO admire his talent, and I always did; and I argued he was the best player of this generation years ago, before he turned himself into a farm animal.

But I am not thrilled to watch him bat, nor would I be thrilled if he wore vertical rather than horizontal pinstripes. I admit that I would root for him, and I admit that I would want him to mash and cheer when he did--because it helps the Yanks. But anymore, when I watch Bonds bat I am not thrilled, I am a little bit disgusted and a little bit bored.

2007-12-06 16:31:28
281.   OldYanksFan
280 Bonds is not at the top of the pyramid. He is not a drug cartel. He is not a evil dictator or a mass murderer. He is a 'user'. He is no different then any other 'user'. He just happens to be a great ballplayer.

I want to know why Bud Selig and Don Fehr are walking the streets. Bonds' mistakes caused one person to use PEDs. Selig and Fehr's mistake allowed hundreds to use PEDs. Bonds' job is to hit a baseball. He did his job really well. How good did Selig and Fehr do their jobs?

1) Did a Grand Jury ask Selig (under oath) if he knew about steroids in baseball in 1990?
2) Did a Grand Jury ask Fehr (under oath) if he knew about steroids in baseball in 1990?
3) Did a Grand Jury ask any owner, any manager, any coach (under oath) if he knew about steroids in baseball, or players doing steroids?
4) And what about the fact that a 'secret' Grand Jury is held and 'secret' information
is in the newspapers the next day?

Do you hate Bonds more then 1, 2, 3 or 4 above?
Is your anger maybe misguided?
As long as we have one schmuck we can scapegoat, one schmuck we can castrate, then we are only all to happy to completely forget about everyone else who is equally, or even more responsible.

2007-12-06 16:31:53
282.   OldYanksFan
2007-12-06 16:38:14
283.   randym77
MLB closed its investigations of Scott Schoeneweis, Gary Matthews, Jr., Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel, so I guess they're off the hook. No word on some of the other names we've heard (Brian Roberts, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Miguel Tejada, etc.)

All I can say is that this makes me appreciate players like Ken Griffey Jr. all the more. SI had an article earlier this year, about how Griffey and Bonds talked about 'roids. Bonds decided to cheat, Griffey decided not to.

And players like Jeter. Canseco said if Jeter had used 'roids, he'd be the best player the world had ever seen. But he wouldn't.

2007-12-06 16:42:38
284.   randym77
Oh, and I almost forgot. Pete Abe reports that the Yankees will be signing Nick Green. We're saved! ;-)
2007-12-06 16:43:39
285.   monkeypants
281 "Bonds is not at the top of the pyramid. He is not a drug cartel. He is not a evil dictator or a mass murderer. He is a 'user'. He is no different then any other 'user'. He just happens to be a great ballplayer."

You misunderstand what pyramid I am talking about.

Let's use an analogy. Let us assume that society decides doing drugs is "bad" (for sake of argument). If Joe Blow does drugs, it's bad. If the president does drugs, it's worse because he is a celebrity, a visible figure, a symbol, etc.

Now, let us go back to baseball. If Andy Phillips does steroids, it's bad. If Barry Bonds does steroids it's worse, because he is among the best players--he is at the top of the pyramid of players, that is all I meant. Whatever advantage he gained by using steroids has a disproportionate impact on the game, from a historical, competitive, marketing, and public image standpoint. So, in fact, he IS different from any other user. Is that fair? I don't know, but that is reality.

That is the only point I was trying to make. As for everything you wrote after "I want to know...", it is irrelevant to my argument.

But if you are curious, Bud Selig disgusts me on multiple levels, and his complicity in the steroid situation is merely one of them.

2007-12-06 16:46:36
286.   monkeypants
283 I remember reading articles 'back in the day' comparing Griffey and Bonds--the current best and the future best, who would you rather have, etc. Griffey unfortunately suffered a series of injuries, and his otherwise astounding career numbers are drowned out by the staggering offensive numbers put up by such luminaries as Rafael Palmiero. Bonds (otherwise known as "just another user") meanwhile broke a whole bunch of records.

History is one cruel bitch.

2007-12-06 16:47:28
287.   monkeypants
284 I saw that. I guess if you DFA Andy Phillips, you need to sign Nick Green. Nature abhors a vacuum.
2007-12-06 17:36:33
288.   Mattpat11
Bonds juicing up and breaking records out of spite is part of the problem too.
2007-12-06 19:13:34
289.   OldYanksFan
285 I understand the point you are trying to make, but I disagree. I don't think a player is held to higher 'moral standards' because they have a better BA or HR total. Nor do I think we hold someone to lesser standards because they hit less HRs, only have a C- average in school, or make less money.

We can admire people who have great talent or achieve great things, but I don't think we have a right to expect them, on a human level, to behave better then anyone else.

2007-12-06 19:38:17
290.   monkeypants
289 I'm not holding anyone to a higher moral standard, per se. Instead, I recognize that "bad" behavior by certain individuals has greater repercussions than the same actions by other individuals. As such, those individuals come under greater scrutiny and invoke stronger emotions and reactions.

Bonds' behavior generates more disgust in me not because his bad behavior is worse, but because it has caused more damage, because it is more obvious and its effects longer lasting, because years from now I will read his name in the record books--not Rick Ankiel's.

2007-12-06 19:38:54
291.   51cq24
289 you're talking about higher standards and expectations, but that isn't what the problem is. the problem is that you attract more attention when you are a star. and if the thing you are famous for is the same thing that the bad thing you do supposedly helps, it isn't good for you. if a ceo embezzles, a lot more people are going to be upset about it than if a lowly employee does. i don't see what the difficulty here is. and i don't understand why so many people now are in the "steroids don't matter" camp. steroids build muscle mass and help you recover quickly. does anyone think that that doesn't help a baseball player? because you still have to hit the ball or throw strikes? i think part of why people are so angry about bonds is that he was already so good, and he only did it to make him self unbelievably good. what was the point when he could have been one of the top 10 all time hitters without any suspicion? is it fair that he gets more attention than everyone else? no. but is it natural and understandable? obviously.
2007-12-06 19:40:20
292.   51cq24
is jack curry related to john flaherty?
2007-12-06 19:46:21
293.   Raf
291 "steroids build muscle mass and help you recover quickly. does anyone think that that doesn't help a baseball player? because you still have to hit the ball or throw strikes?"

Maybe, maybe not. We don't know. It makes sense that it does, but it doesn't mean that it's true.

2007-12-06 19:48:36
294.   51cq24
293 right, i don't have evidence that it definitely does. i just don't understand the argument that increased muscle mass and expedited recovery doesn't matter to baseball.
2007-12-06 19:53:13
295.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
What I simply don't understand is the sheer and gross misunderstanding of the impact of steroids on a given player. Any real or perceived increases in strength or speed are negligible compared to the increased speed of healing which steroids afford a body.

The baseball season is long and arduous in its way. A marathon. And with more teams in the mix for playoff spots every year, it makes it harder and harder for big stars to rest so that they can perform at their best while they're on the field. Steroids bridge that gap.

So think of it this way: steroids allow a player to play at peak, or close to peak efficiency for say 90% of the time, whereas without steroids that player might average only 80% efficacy over the course of a season. They're not "much stronger" or "much faster" at any given moment, they're simply slightly healthier, with much quicker recovery times overall. But over the course of a 6 month season, you bet your ass that comes into play - statistically and otherwise.

For Bonds, they allowed him to be "BONDS" more time than otherwise.

COnsidered in this (medically correct) context, we can begin to understand the appeal - and impact - of steroids, across a much larger range of players. We can also more clearly see beyond certain performance stats and into other, durability measures, for evidence of their use. Durability, yes, and also lack of decline where we might otherwise expect it.

Cut and dried in all cases? Of course not. I'm just sayin... And I'm an MD.

2007-12-06 19:55:10
296.   randym77
Someone posted a fascinating link here awhile back. It was to an article by a journalist who took PEDs in order to write a story about them. He was an athlete was well as a journalist.

He definitely noticed the improvement. (As well as some nasty side effects.) Perhaps the most interesting thing was that he found HGH greatly improved his vision. To the point that he didn't need glasses any more. That didn't really matter in his sport (cycling), but it would be a huge help in baseball.

In the end, he said he wouldn't do steroids, because the side effects were just too nasty. But he would do HGH if he could afford it, because the side effects were minimal, and he really liked the sharper vision it gave him.

2007-12-06 20:09:10
297.   underdog
I hate the Giants, but don't think Lowry is that bad. He's erratic but can be very good. (And as a Dodger fan, it pains me to say that.) It's obvious his loss would be very easily overcome by the Giants, as clearly Linecum and Cain are both far more talented, but Lowry can be pretty solid. I guess I don't get the nausea about him...
2007-12-06 20:13:49
298.   Raf
295 Then we'd have to look at usage patterns to see if we have anything.

Doesn't durability (or lack thereof) and quicker recovery time cancel each other out?

2007-12-06 20:32:38
299.   OldYanksFan
295 Well said Doc. From a professional point of view, how much are Bonds' stats 'enhanced' due to PEDs? The year he hit 73 HRs, would he have 60 without 'help'? I know it's a guess, but voice an opinion.
2007-12-06 20:53:32
300.   OldYanksFan
You guys will like this.
Show/Hide Comments 301-350
2007-12-06 22:14:11
301.   MC Safety
225 Shinjo?...but he didnt make much of a splash.
2007-12-07 03:11:01
302.   Mattpat11
297 Some of us don't see the point in acquiring a guy that "isn't that bad" We have plenty of people that can be "not that bad"

299 Well, he had never hit more than 46 homeruns without help.

2007-12-07 04:01:22
303.   Yu-Hsing Chen
Errr, seriously, Matsui has his problems and all, but you simply don't trade a guy that produce like that for a piece of garbage like Lowry.

If they are willing to flirt with Lincecum or Cain with a Matsui package. i'm definately willing to listen reallllll hard.

2007-12-07 04:38:34
304.   Mattpat11
303 I agree completely. Matsui is one of my favorites, but if it was a move that I thought could help the team, I'd pull the trigger. Noah Lowry does not fit that bill.
2007-12-07 05:22:43
305.   Rob Middletown CT
That seems to be the general concensus here (myself definitely included). Somehow, I think Cashman can figure that out too. I certainly hope so (or my trust in him is misplaced).
2007-12-07 05:29:13
306.   williamnyy23
305 We are all reacting to rumors...I would be shocked if that's the deal Cashman is considering. In fact, I think it's premature to even think he is considering a deal for Matsui. After all, it was the Giants who contacted him.
2007-12-07 05:38:31
307.   Sonya Hennys Tutu
298 Unless I misunderstand you, then I think you misunderstand me. I'm saying that roids help with durability as a result of shortening recovery times.

They can give an athlete the ability to perform at a higher average level or performance over a longer period of time by shortening recovery times. That means that not only is the guy on the field more, but he's closer to 100% each time he's there. So you get more games (and ABs), with each played at a higher level.

299 I'd never really thought of that. I also haven't done as much of a deep dive into HGH specifically. And assuming Bonds did both, I'm not sure how you separate out the effects.

One interesting thing about Bonds that year, and the couple after, is that he seemed to become a self fulfilling prophecy. Pitchers (and managers) feared him, and so tried to nibble. And you know what happens when you try to make the perfect pitch - you either miss over the plate, or you miss big. So, either a walk or a HR. And that's not even counting the ones where they intentionally walked him by pitching around him.

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