Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
After some deliberation, Mariano Rivera has accepted a more than generous offer to stay in pinstripes. It's a legacy deal, an outrageous sum to pay for a closer, but hey, this is Rivera and this is the Yankees we're talking about. We knew the Yanks would overpay to keep him (as they overpaid Posada), just as it was clear that nobody else was going to give Rivera nearly as sweet a deal.
Oh, by the way, congrats to Alex Rodriguez, who won his third MVP award yesterday, and his second in four years with the Yankees. Over at BP, Nate Silver writes that Rodriguez was the clear cherce:
What might be more surprising is that A-Rod's numbers were even more impressive than they appear at first glance, because of one area for which he's traditionally had a poor reputation: his performance in the clutch. Rodriguez hit .333, with 98 RBIs and a 1.138 OPS with runners in scoring position. He hit .357 in "close and late" situations. He hit .500 with a 1.286 slugging percentage in 14 plate appearances with the bases loaded. At he hit .362 in September, as the Yankees climbed back to reclaim their spot in the post-season.Rodriguez, of course, renewed doubts about his clutch ability with his relatively poor performance against Cleveland in the ALDS, when he hit .267 with just one RBI. In other words, he had a bad series. On the other hand, over 162 games during the regular season, he was the one guy you wanted up there when the game depended on it. Which performance do you trust more: 583 at-bats in the regular season, or 15 in the playoffs?
Yes, Rodriguez has disappointed in the playoffs in the past. But the bottom line is this. Firstly, clutch performance is mostly about luck: the same player who is clutch one year can be a choke artist the next. And two, the Yankees ought to have every bit of confidence that Rodriguez can not only get them to October, but win them a title once they're there. Rodriguez is the MVP - and the highest-paid player in baseball - for a reason: no player provides his team with a bigger head start toward winning a World Championship.
And that's word to Big Boid.
But as The Collapse unfolded, so did A-Rod's hitting (and most everyone else's for that matter) and he clearly hasn't been the same since.
That said, personally I think he took some strides this past year in the post season. "Ordinary" is actually an improvement over the prior years.
My guess is that sometime in the next 10 years, not only will A-Rod have a ring, but he will have earned his pinstripes by contributing when it counts most in the post season.
It's like this team has been in a huge teamwide PS slump since that time. But I have faith in 2008.
Why not throw money at him to setup for Rivera? He may even get some chances to close, especially in 2009 and 2010. The guy is 32, so a 3 year deal should be OK.
I think he's looking for something like 3/$20? Its a lot, but if he's good, he will be a difference maker.
And is it nuts to have Joba in the BP for 40IPs in the first half, and then permanently move him to SP for 100IPs in the 2nd half?
that would compensate nicely for joba's rightful departure from the 'pen. one issue might be whether cordero would want to play 2nd fiddle to mo.
He focuses mostly on batting average with RISP. Another stat that can be used in defense of Mags is OBI%. A-Rod's 19.2% was pretty good, but Ordonez' 21.85% led the majors.
If it wasn't for the fact that A-Rod played 3rd base, this one could have been a pretty close call.
The only problem with your Joba scenario, OYF, is that he'd need to be stretched out in the minors after the bullpen stint, to build up arm strength and stamina. So you wouldn't get 100 IP out of him post ASB; maybe more like 40-50, and then not until mid or late August.
7 I agree that Cordero is going to be paid closer money (about $10mn per). I'd rather focus on Mahey and Riske...I think both/either would be welcomed additions to the Yankees pen.
This MVP would not have been close except if A-Rod were a full-time DH. And even still, A-Rod had the edge in all the categories that take total offense into account: Runs Created, WARP, OPS+, and EqA.
This one was not close, unless you want to make your MVP choice based on arbitrary stats that just happened to go Magglio's way. Like, for instance: I'm giving "Batting average in the sixth inning" the most weight: Magglio's at .471, but A-Rod's only at .313. Sorry, A-Rod, I'm going to have to ignore your 52 homers and 96.6 VORP and give it to Magglio.
Please. These Michigan guys were homers and they should just admit that, rather than play the pick and choose stats game.
That rebuttal basically shows that Tom Gage is an idiot. He has no appreciation for how much more impressive it is that A-Rod plays a prime IF position, whereas Magglio is a corner OF. He keeps bringing up BA, when their OBP is a lot closer and A-Rod's EqA and OPS are higher, as is his VORP.
8 Yes, it's a terrible, terrible, article. Awful in so many ways. Terrible reasoning, and a shitty article to boot.
I especially love the way he dismisses home runs as "glamor stats." The way I see it, Rodriguez redefined RISP, because the batter's box was scoring position for him.
Granted, A-Rod was the clear #1, but the Ordonez votes irk me far less than Morneau's award last year or Lowell's 4th-place finish this year (if you bat behind David Ortiz, you'll get a lot of RBIs -- duh!).
9 Your statememt "These Michigan guys were homers" implies malicious intent. I don't think that that's the case. Seeing Ordonez get the big hits day after day just skewed their objectivity a bit.
whats amusing to me is that these michigan guys were the ONLY ones to do so, just highlighting the lack of objectivity that these baseball writers have.
17 aren't you being a bit of a homer yourself ? :) i mean come on!
In 2001, Barry Bonds was not a unanimous MVP selection, there were two votes cast for Sammy Sosa, both by Chicago writers. This sort of thing goes on all the time, and the journalists should be honest about it rather than cherry picking stats.
What does worry me, however, is players with postseason awards incentives in their contracts. I think PeteAbe brought up an interesting conspiracy theory- Schilling's new contract includes incentives if he gets any Cy Young votes: I would guess that a writer casting his vote for Schilling even if he doesn't deserve it would expect some kind of kickback... PeteAbe was the one who brought that up, and I don't know how likely it is, but it's worth consideration...
Jake Peavy won the NL Cy Young unanimously this year, and I think the voters got that one right.
But yeah, there's usually something that doesn't make sense in the voting. What ticks me off is that these guys (and their publications) get lots of free press as a result, and you wonder if that wasn't a motivation for voting as they did.
The thing that concerns me more about the two Detroit writers is they based their decision on BA-based stats. It's one thing to subconsciously (or consciously) let bias taint your vote, but another to use silly rationale to justify that action. Who cares that Magglio had a higher BA and BA w/ RISP. Just for the record, Arod had a 1.138 OPS w RISP, while Magglio had a 1.137. In other words, each player's performance with RISP was even, making it a very poor basis for deciding one way or the other.
What's that? You think I'm nuts? Well, I can't hear you over the advertising dollars rushing in from you visiting my newspaper's website!
The writer would be risking more. There's got to be something against it in terms of professional responsibility, which means they'd probably lose their job. But if you're making $45K/year and someone offers you an easy $400K . . .
To me, the potential for something like this happening is enough to worry me, regardless of the actual chances of it happening.
I guess off hand I'd pay Cordero 'closer money'. So, he'll get closer money without being a closer. So what? We know that what's important is having a really good pitcher available to pitch the most important innings. I bet Joe(2) uses Mo(1) as a traditional closer, that is, ninth inning only (more or less). Wouldn't it be great to have a top pitcher for the bases-loaded situation in the seventh inning of a close game?
And with Farnsworth nearly a memory, I don't have a problem offering Cordero 3 x $8mm or so...
Gordon was in his mid-30s, and coming off 2 straight years of not being a closer. He may have believed he was done as the closer at that point. While Cordero is (I believe) 28.
Other people who follow Yankees prospects, like Mike A at RAB and Chad Jennings on the SWB blog, have had similar things to say about Horne. Jennings expects Horne to make his major league debut next year. With Joba likely on an innings cap of 130 or so, that could be a possibility (Horne threw 150 innings last year).
The falacy here is that, while a double or triple drives in the same runs as a single, a home run drives in one more. This same falacy taints Baseball Prospectus' OBI% (by which Ordonez leads A-Rod 21.85% to 19.2%), which explicitly measures ones ability to drive in runners other than oneself. A more meaningful metric is ones true RBI%, i.e. RBI / (ROB + TPA). (I presume that reason BP publishes the less-significant OBI% is that RBI% is copyrighted -- does it come from Total Baseball?) In RBI%, A-Rod leads Mags 12.6% to 11.7%.
So if all of A-Rod's home runs were doubles, Ordonez would have been more valuable. Sorry, Mr. Gage.
30 Cordero is 32
1. Austin Jackson, CF, Honolulu Sharks (Yankees): Another reason a player can be assigned to fall ball is as a reaffirmation following a breakout season. In 2006, Jackson looked like a waste of money after the Yankees had bought out a college basketball career, as he'd hit just .258/.338/.344 in the South Atlantic League.
...
Once profiled as a future leadoff hitter, Jackson instead showed all five tools in Hawaii, and now his ceiling reads much higher. Jackson impressed many coaches with his defense in center field, as well as his speed on the basepaths, where he stole eight bases in nine attempts. However, it's been Jackson's continued ability to square up the baseball and show power that left him as the unanimous top prospect amongst coaches.
I'm picturing a quick interview with Matt Lauer, (winter scarfs and stylish hats all around) followed by the unveiling of the biggest balloon in parade history - a 150 foot tall inflatable ARod, ushered into Herald Square by Warren Buffet, Scott Boras, the Steinbrothers, and the Goldman Sachs MVP Marching Band.
"Up With People" will then perform the heartwarming song and dance spectacle "A New York Yankee Miracle on 34th Street!"
Set your DVRs, people.
30 As 33 pointed out, Cordero is 32. Certainly younger than Flash was when we signed him, but a far cry from 28 in pitching years (though in honesty I haven't checked innings logged for each over the seasons in question).
Either way, I think Cordero would take a 3 year deal from us to set up Mo.
34 Interesting. Does that make Melky somewhat more available as a trade chip?
Up, up with people
You meet 'em wherever you go
Up, up with people
They're the best kind of folks we know
If more people were for people
All people everywhere
There'd be a lot less people to worry about
And a lot more people who care.
Jeez, with all the brain cells I killed in college, I couldn't have killed the ones responsible for that?
that being said, i dont think that AJ is a large determinant in the decision to trade melky- he's at least half a year from getting bronx-time.
what the h was he thinking?
I do think it makes Melky more tradeable. Maybe try to sign Andruw to a short contract? (What would he cost in draft picks -- is he Type A?)
Rollins won the NL MVP. Awful.
If he hit down in the order his RBI would probably be in MVP territory.
Back to back MVP years for the Phils, (Howard '06) and now they're going to lose Rowand... sucks for them.
Gotta use that cash somehow, & type-A is a no-no no matter what!
#1 Wright
#2 Holliday
#3 Peavy
#4 Fielder
#5 Utley
#6 Rollins
#7 Ramirez (Hanley)
#8 Pujols
#9 Jones (Chipper)
#10 Cabrera
Still nowhere near as awful as Morneau, who shouldn't have even cracked the Top 10.
Wright looked like a slamdunk before he and his team blew to pieces in the end.
Holliday, as I mentioned above, probably should have won.
Peavy got his hardware, and Fielder will get his someday.
Utley's deserving, too, but Rollins was really the straw that stirred the Phils this year. He carried the team at times, especially when Utley was down for a few weeks. Rollins' wack but accurate declaration at the start of the season, that the Phils were the team to beat in the East got everybody's attention, and probably earned him a few votes.
The Sporting News preferred Hanley to Rollins, but I don't have any beef with him getting it. I don't get worked up about the individual awards.
The brain cells that die are the "where did I put my keys two minutes ago" cells.
Guerrero leads the league by a mile with a "clutchiness" index of 2.42. A-Rod is 8th at 1.10, with Ordonez just behind him at 1.07.
He's supposed to set up for Borowski.
I wonder if Cashman missed the boat on this one? Depends on the money, I guess.
("quest!")
53 it's a 2-year $6.25 mil deal. pretty good for the tribe. 2 years at $3 mil per, a 3rd option year, also at $3 mil, with a $250,000 buyout...
57 torii is being courted pretty hard by the pale hose and his hometown rangers. i'm guessing he'll end up in one of those locales...
boras talking about andruw NOT taking a 1-year deal...
34 thanks for the 411 on austin jackson. how far off is he? i need to check...
59 great commentary from baseball america's john manuel about yankees prospects on SWB:
http://tinyurl.com/34noc3
the link lets you listen for yourself.
Hunter will be too expensive.
"Jimmy Rollins won the NL MVP today after batting .296 with 30 homers, 94 RBIs and 41 steals for the regular season. However, he once again failed to bring home the big prize, batting only .182 as the Phillies were swept in the first round of the playoffs. Rollins has yet to win his first world championship."
http://tinyurl.com/2dds3a
Are they holding off on announcing the deals until the Rule 5 draft or something? They just added 4 guys today (Patterson, Cervelli, Marquez and White), bringing it up to 39, but they'll need four spots for the re-signed guys. They can always drop Pavano, and DFA some of the detritus (DeSalvo, Chase Wright).
Arod still won the MVP and its not like they give you a blue "unanimous" ribbon to hang off the award for getting all the votes.
Is it a common name? We could ask Mike Plugh.
I hate to give kudos to the Sox for anything, but their NOT giving out No-Trade clauses is good business. I'd like to see the Yankees follow suit. We pay top dollar for our personel, we should be able to do this.
If you want a player to take a hometown discount, it's completely unreasonable to refuse to give him a no-trade clause. Just ask Bronson.
austin jackson!
from BP:
1. Austin Jackson, CF, Honolulu Sharks (Yankees): Another reason a player can be assigned to fall ball is as a reaffirmation following a breakout season. In 2006, Jackson looked like a waste of money after the Yankees had bought out a college basketball career, as he'd hit just .258/.338/.344 in the South Atlantic League. The Yankees re-assigned Jackson to Charleston in 2007, and he continued to struggle, hitting .260/.336/.374 in his repeat campaign. It wasn't until what seemed an ill-advised promotion to Tampa that the light came on, and Jackson hasn't looked back since. After becoming the FSL's best hitter in the second half by hitting .345/.398/.566, Jackson continued to square up in Hawaii, hitting .271/.368/.489. Once profiled as a future leadoff hitter, Jackson instead showed all five tools in Hawaii, and now his ceiling reads much higher. Jackson impressed many coaches with his defense in center field, as well as his speed on the basepaths, where he stole eight bases in nine attempts. However, it's been Jackson's continued ability to square up the baseball and show power that left him as the unanimous top prospect amongst coaches.
Team is coming together. Nemecizer is feeling good (and it has nothing to do with the scotch, I promise).
Happy Thanksgiving Banter!
http://www.myspace.com/mulvie51
AJ was also #2 in BA's HBL review, so the kid is opening some eyes ... maybe even a fall cup o' joe with a strong 2008
That is not safe for work! You need to put a warning label on that. They play that stuff in Guantanamo.
One of my favorite toons as a kid.
68 :) Kobayashi maru was the name of that test in The Wrath of Khan. The one Kirk cheated at, thus becoming the only starfleet cadet to ever beat the Kobayashi maru.
He changed the conditions of the test.
He doesn't like to lose.
He's an albatross around Cash's neck.
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