Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Just as I was putting the finishing touches on a post about how important it is for the Yankees to re-sign Jorge Posada, no matter the cost, the word came down that Posada had indeed re-upped with the Bombers to the tune of $52.4 million over four years. Posada came within hours of hitting the market, as free agents are able to sign with any of the 30 major league teams starting today.
I'll get to the length and cost of Posada's contract (which just inches past the matching $52-mil/4-yr deals given Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui prior to the 2006 season) in a moment. First a word on Posada's value on the field.
Put as simply as possible, here's what the average major league catcher hit in 2007: .256/.318/.394.
Now here's Posada's 2007 season: .338/.426/.543 in 144 games.
Need I go on?
Okay, here are the top VORP totals by catchers in 2007:
Jorge Posada: 73.4
Victor Martinez: 55.0
Russell Martin: 46.1
Joe Mauer: 30.2
Notice how Posada's total is nearly as high as the third and fourth best catchers combined? Notice that the other three players are a minimum of three years from hitting the market (Mauer and Martinez are signed through 2010, and Martin will be under team control through 2011).
Let's do this with 2006, shall we?
Average C: .269/.329/.416
Posada: .277/.374/.492 in 143 games
VORP Leaders, Catchers:
Joe Mauer: 66.9
Brian McCann: 54.8
Victor Martinez: 47.8
Jorge Posada: 38.0
Sure, Jorge didn't dominate the field in 2006 like he did in 2007, but notice the trend: Jorge outdistances the average catcher's production by a laughable margin, while the VORP leaders at the position are once again Jorge and three guys who won't hit the market for another three years.
To be fair, there are four other catchers from the 2006 top-20 who are currently free agents. Here are their 2007 seasons:
Michael Barrett: .244/.281/.372, 101 games
Paul Lo Duca: .272/.311/.378, 119 games
Mike Piazza: .275/.313/.414, 83 games (0 games caught)
Jason Kendall: .242/.301/.309, 137 games
By the way, Lo Duca's 2007 season above was good for the 19th best VORP by a catcher this season, which means 11 teams did a lot worse at the position Actually, 12 did worse, as Lo Duca's backup, Ramon Castro, finished 12th. Meanwhile, Lo Duca and Castro combined had less than one-third of Posada's VORP total.
Any questions?
Okay, sure, Jorge's age. Posada's 36 and will be 37 in August and 40 by the time his new contract expires. Here are all of the catchers who have caught 130 or more games in a season at age 36 or older in the history of major league baseball:
Al Todd, 1938, 132 games at age 36
Bob Boone, 1984-1986, 137, 147, and 144 games from ages 36 to 38
Carlton Fisk, 1985, 130 games at age 37
Benito Santiago, 2001, 130 games at age 36
Brad Ausmus, 2005, 130 games at age 36
That's it.
Here's the list of catchers who have caught 130 or more games in a season at the age of 36 and posted an OPS+ above league average:
Carlton Fisk, 1985, 115 OPS+
That's it.
Posada has caught 130 or more games and posted and above-average OPS+ in every year of the current decade, but something will have to give soon, and the Yankees obviously would prefer it to be the games caught rather than the OPS+.
Here's the good news. Posada has already had the greatest season by a catcher age 35 or older in the history of the game (Gabby Hartnett's 1937 season was the previous standard), so he's already an outlier. Expecting him to have a productive season in 2008 despite his age is not unreasonable given the strength of his performance the last two years and the fact that September, a month when most catchers (including a younger Posada) tend to run out of gas, was Posada's best month in each of those two seasons. What' more, Posada's production is so far out in front of the other available catchers that he'll still be valuable to the Yankees even in decline. Plus, a large part of that production is due to his patience at the plate (his worst OBP in a season in which he's had more than 15 plate appearances is .341, his worst since becoming the Yankee starter was .352, and his career OBP is an outstanding 104 points higher than his career batting average), which is a skill that should survive the eventual loss in power he's sure to experience over the next four years.
After the 2008 season, the Yankees will part way with Jason Giambi (buying out his $22 million option for a steep, but acceptable $5 million), clearing extra at-bats for Posada at DH and first base (Posada, who began his professional career as a second baseman, has played 18 major league games at first base and posted a solid, if small-sample, 117 Rate2). Of course, the competitive advantage that Posada provides decreases with each additional game started at first base or DH, but given the alternatives and the outside chance that Posada indeed could be the second coming of Carlton Fisk, who caught 106 games and posted a 134 OPS+ at age 42, (it's long been thought that Posada's late conversion to catching could buy him extra years behind the dish at the end of his career, that theory appears to be becoming a reality), it's well worth the gamble.
As much as giving a catcher a multi-year deal that stretches into his 40s sounds like insanity on the surface (I'm sure I was among those who laughed at the $40-million/4-year deal the Red Sox gave Jason Varitek, who's eight-months Posada's junior, two years ago), the length makes a certain amount of sense. To begin with, the Yankees had hoped to keep the contract to three years, but it apparently took a fourth year to get Posada signed, which was a concession worth making per the above. Following the third year of Posada's contract, Martinez and Mauer will hit the market (unless they receive extensions in the interim, of course). After Posada's contract is up, Martin and McCann will hit the market (again barring extensions). Meanwhile, the Yankees have Francisco Cervelli (a career .277/.379/.390 hitter in the minors who should begin his age-22 season with double-A Trenton in 2008), and Austin Romine, the strong-armed high-school catcher the team took in the second round of this year's draft, working their way through the system. There are no worthwhile catchers available now, but by the time Posada's ready to relinquish the position, there could well be a glut of them.
And, of course, there's something to be said for watching a home-grown player finish his career where it started while earning a place in the new Monument Park and, just maybe, a place in the Hall of Fame*.
*Milestones to watch: Posada needs 82 homers to become the seventh, or eighth if Ivan Rodriguez gets there first, catcher with 300 career home runs. Jorge's hit 83 over the past four years, so it's a long shot, but it's possible. If Jorge hits 18 homers in 2008 he'll move into the top-10 all time for catchers by tying Gabby Hartnett
Yaaayyyyyyyyyy!
What a pleasant, pleasant bit of news to receive just before turning in.
Pfew.
One down, two to go...miles to go before we sleep, especially, it seems, as far as Andy is concerned...
300 homers and the HoF will be cutting it close, but jorgie should definitely get consideration and hopefully a plaque in the new monument park.
time will tell, but either way, i'm just glad he's back. mo soon to follow... : )
Talk about having us over a barrel!
Glad it's done. Mo should be onboard soon.
I can't imagine Pettitte coming back. He doesn't want to now. I don't know what would convince him in the next 2 months. Jetes can't even throw him any castoffs.
For 2010, what kids (position players) might be up?
Gardner? AJax? Tabata? Miranda (for a cup of coffee)? Alberto Gonzalez if he can hit? Marcos Vechionacci if he can hit?
I only see 2 or 3 who might really make the cut.
Cashnman has a lot of work to do over the next 16 months.
I still would have preferred paying him more money to accept a 3 year deal, but I'm very happy Posada is sticking around.
Here's to your health, Jorge!
It's probably a year too much and a few too many dollars, but I'm not going to begrudge Jorge. Nice to see him finish his career in pinstripes. He will have value at DH/1B, maybe mentoring one of those young catchers. Now just need to resign Mo and come back, Andy.
Oh, and go get a thirdbaseman.
6 Well, I said all along that any deal for Jorge should be considered as if it were three years (in other words, forget about how many total years on the contract--is the total aceptable assuming three productive seasons?). 3 years at about 17.5 million each is probably too steep, but it's not that much higher than the 3 year/45 million figure than many here (myself included) were tossing around.
IF (and it's a big if) Jorge defies nature and keeps hitting a bit in the fourth year, this will be a nice contract. If he turns into a pumkin, then like the Damon deal, you have to hope they get three good years out him and eat one year, rather than two and two.
i'm relieved that he'll be back. the thought of him in a mets uni made me nauseous.
I'd like to see a breakdown along these lines, if possible:
2008: 130 games caught, 20 games DH
2009: 110 games caught, 40 games DH (some 1B)
2010: 80 games caught, 70 games DH (some 1B)
2011: mostly DH/1B, spot catcher
The FO played it right (in my opinion), but in the end it worked out worse for them.
Was that ever true?
Frankly, not resigning MO before the season may work out just fine, since his relatively poor season gives the FO some more leverage.
I think they did the right thing with Posada, and it's not like he hasn't earned his money with the Yankees. They can afford to pay a premium for him. That fourth year is just so that they can give him Jorge Posada Day and maybe a plaque in Monument Park next to Jeter's.
C'mon Mo, make it a two-fer.
Hopefully once Mo sees the market for him he will re-sign pretty quickly.
I'm glad that priority was put on re-signing our FAs and then filling in other needs.
In any case, ic Cashman wants (needs) to put a 92 win team on the field w/o disrupting the subsequent years, the closer position is probably not the best place to look. Better would be to follow OldYank's advice and sign Bonds for a season.
This might be heretical, but are there any FA pitchers available who could replace Pettitte's innings and ERA+ of 110, for the same $16 million? The ERA yes, but 238 INN is a lot to replace, I guess.
I'm not sure Randy Wolf could pitch 200 innings, but he might also be worth a flyer, being a lefty strike-thrower and all. He's been hurt every year since 2003 though.
FWIW (and I think for the most part his FA rankings make sense), Keith Law has Andy ranked as the best FA SP.
The next two he has ranked are Kyle Loshe (192 IP/ 4.62 ERA/ 2.14 K/BB and Carlos Silva (202 IP/ 4.19 ERA / 2.47 K/BB).
If Andy doesn't come back, the Yanks obviously need someone who can throw 200+ innings. Don't think either one of them is the answer.
Livan Hernandez has the highest number of IP (204) for FAs - but he would get lit up.
I'd like to know what Beane would want for Haren or Blanton.
No, he's not going to dominate, but the Yankees don't need him too- thats what Hughes and Joba and IPK (and Wang) are there for. Hernandez can probably be signed for one or two years and then be replaced by one of the other arms.
On another note, people scoffed at my Tad Iguchi idea from yesterday, but what if they signed him with the intent of moving Robbie Cano to third base?
Overall, the best option (I feel) for the infield is to move Jeter to third and start Alberto Gonzales every day. But that will never happen.
35 I did not know that. How about Bartolo Colon? Another potential innings risk, but if he's OK, he's better than Garcia.
Sabathia 225
Lackey 221
Carmona 218
Beckett 215
Any of the four are deserving of the award.
(http://tinyurl.com/yqx35m)
wow.
does mo think he'll get more elsewhere?
As for all mentions of moving Cano to 3B: the guy's one of the best defensive 2Bs in baseball and the best offensive 2B in the game after Chase Utley and he's still improving his game. There's no way I'd move him to third. No way.
I'm not sure I'd offer that deal, maybe 2 years and an option.
On defense, I think the Yankees would pick up about 20-30 runs per year with the AG at SS and Jeter at third. I think it would be preferable to Jeter at SS and Crede at 3B, for example. And it's better than Jeter-Betemit because it increases the Yankees' depth (Betemit becomes a super-utility player).
Or should I just accept that Matsui and Damon (and for that matter Giambi) will be back next year?
21. Alberto Gonzalez
Shortstop
Yes, I think Gonzalez's defense is good enough to justify ranking him this high. I look at him as a sure thing to be a top-notch defensive utility infielder in the big leagues, and I think he has a chance to develop into a Gold Glove shortstop with a solid -- but probably never great -- bat.
Expectation for 2008: His bat still needs to develop before the Yankees know whether they've got a big league starter or a reserve. He should be back in Triple-A and if he hits the Yankees will have to decide whether they're going to use him or trade him.
---
I don't know, maybe this season isn't the one to take a chance on AG, and other people would feel more confident with a solid year with the bat at AAA. We've gotten spoiled for so long with an offensive threat at SS that we've forgotten that the position is one of the hardest on defense. AG could give the Yankees Tulo-like defense (or better) right now, but perhaps his bat isn't enough to justify sliding him into the #9 hole and forgetting about it. For now.
As for Betemit, given how useless he is as a right-handed hitter, and that he's simply above average on defense, I would prefer he platoon with Duncan at first base, rather than starting at third.
On offense, his 94 Runs Created in 2007 was fifth among major league second basemen. It would have been seventh among major league third basemen. I wouldn't make the move for the sake of making a move, but if there were a better 2B option than a 3B option, I would consider moving Cano over to third.
54 And there is no way the Dodgers would move their All Star closer to a setup role for Mo, nor will they pay him what the Yanks will. It's a weak bluff, IMO.
Pete Abe says Cashman is going to try and re-sign the Viz.
I don't know what he expects to get elsewhere.
wagner gets around $11M a year i think.
$15M?!?
staggering. (which isn't to say that he doesn't deserve that cash. he's mariano rivera. give him what he wants, but gee whiz... that is a lot of cash.)
http://www.baseballmusings.com/
though, as always, all of the defensive metrics have their issues
(here's the rather involved discussion of PMR methodology over at BBTF)
http://tinyurl.com/2httnl
FOUR MORE YEARS!!!
Also, LA has a ton of kids we could use... like 3 or 4 to pick from.
It's a great idea. I don't know if it flies, but it makes a LOT of sense to try.
Mo is gonna sign soon. LA? Ha! He's just puttin' on the squeeze. 3/$45 is otherworldly... way more then he's worth. I say he's a Yankee by tomorrow.
66 I just can't see Matsui waiving his NTC at all. He doesn't care about the local Japanese population nearly as much as the market back home.
When I was a kid, I feel like a player's position was a player's position. People didn't just casually talk about moving players about the way they do today.
(Ok, you got me, I don't really hate playing the old fuddy-duddy, I rather relish it, truth to tell.)
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