Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Leave it to the Yankees to hold a suedo-secluded-super-serious meeting of their top officials, and have them come up with a big, fat "no comment" after Day One. Joe Torre's future with the team is still very much in doubt. According to the Post:
How tough is it to fire somebody?" [former Yankee coach, and current enemy of George Steinbrenner, Don] Zimmer asked. "If you want to fire somebody, you can do it the right way. But to let somebody hang is wrong."
Joe's older brother, Frank, isn't thrilled about how things are playing out, but for now, he's curbed that famous temper of his.
Although I like Torre, I understand why the Yankees would want to move on. That said, I agree with Zimmer. There is a right way and a wrong way to handle these things. Unfortunately, in baseball, they are generally handled the wrong way.
Pete Abraham hit the nail on the head yesterday when he wrote:
It's always amusing to me when team executives act like they're determining the course of the free world.That was the case in Tampa today as the Yankees played cloak-and-dagger with the media and then refused comment as to what happened. There were literally black cars with grim-faced men behind the wheel zooming past reporters.
We're talking about who is going to manage a baseball team next season. I understand this is big business. But it's baseball, not life and death. If the Joint Chiefs of Staff want to keep their feelings private, that's OK. Not the people who run a baseball team.
...If they were going to get rid of Joe Torre, wouldn't they have done that by now? If they let Torre go [today], it amounts to unprofessional behavior on their part. Why would you treat one of your best, most loyal employees that way?
They would treat Torre like step-child because they can, because, in some ways, he's allowed it, but mostly because in an organization like the Yankees, the level of insecurity and jealousy is off-the-charts. This is about power, and Torre's popularity and fame does not sit well with some of the higher ups.
The Yankee executives may simply not agree on what they should do yet. I'd believe that. In the meantime, Joe, as he has always done, waits it out. Mum's the word. Either he's noble or a sap. Which one of these?
http://tinyurl.com/3y9qaw
I don't know what's funnier: calling porn the "good old American way," or blaming God because he couldn't stop looking at it.
I really don't care how this is 'usually' handled elsewhere. I care that the Yankees aren't returning the same class, dignity and competence to Mr. Torre that he has accorded them since he came to the the job in 1996.
"I am not sure why so many are trying to turn Torre into a martyr."
Because that's the narrative, along with the Joba rules are silly, A-Rod is a choke-artist, Derek Jeter is clutchy-McClutchy, and the new one coming is that the Yankees are disorganized mess in the wake of the boss having mostly given up the reins.
Once again, what is so wrong with taking 1-2 weeks to make a very significant decision?
The only way the Yankees are handling this badly, IMO, is in terms of PR (Goerge opening his big mouth and the subsequent failure to do adequate damage control), not in terms of how Torre is being "treated."
Damn you for typing faster!!
The natural inference drawn from you're post was that the Yankees have no manager at this point because Mr. Torre's contract has expired and therefore they are merely taking steps to fill that vacancy. Given however that he is still under contract this public display of apparent ambivalence looks like incompetence and ingratitude. Mr. Torre deserves better.
3 Thanks for commenting and pointing out the lunacy in that line of thinking.
As for Torre, I don't think he's a sap or noble for waiting out to see if he'll still be able to manage the Yanks, his dream job. I love Torre and I would act the same way, why rock the boat if he (still) REALLY wants to keep managing? What are his options if he doesn't manage the Yanks:
1. Get into broadcasting - swap places with Girardi.
2. Manage another team
3. Sit at home and read the comments at the Banter.
None of those options are better than managing the Yanks.
15 Even if you had essentially made the decision six months ago, why wouldn't you review it right before it becomes final to make sure nothing has changed? Forsaking the opportunity to review the decision would be stupid.
If the Yankees were truly thinking like a big business, their decision would have been made already, not based on recent events or clouded by sentimentality. If they were being a little subjective and wanted the decision to be made on Joe's record in this post-season, well that's over so the decision should have been made by the last game of the ALDS. They have had 12 years, or if you take a short-term approach, one season, to decide if they were going to move on. I thought their move with Bernie, while being a bit harsh, was more big business-like. Dear Bernie, you're not invited to spring training. That's as clear as it gets. For Joe, they should have told him before the ALDS was over - either he's back or not and let the man close the season with some dignity if he's out of the picture next year.
Guys who come from where Torre comes from figure there's nothing more noble than surviving, whatever it takes.
No matter what, Joe comes out of this a winner, so let the Yanks braintrust take their sweet time and do whatever they're gonna do.
The coverage of the intriguing deliberations in Tampa has gone beyond "Frontline" treatment, and is approaching Oliver Stone silliness, yet I'm enjoying it to an extent.
The only argument to add to that would be if they are discussing whether Torre should come back so they can have a better chance at resigning everyone, but that shouldn't even be discussed...
As a business consultant I see it everyday.
The Yankees are a privately-held organization and are under no obligation to share anything with anybody. The Steinbrenners can do anything they want with their team, and can take as long as they want in doing it.
As much as I hate that Torre's fate is still up in the air, I hate the media more. They're just going to have to wait.
That said, anyone else having fun with the Pedroia pics today?
The original photo:
http://tinyurl.com/23tgfg
The nomaas .gif:
http://tinyurl.com/293rfp
My own version:
http://tinyurl.com/yns3wq
(4) When the Boss opened his big mouth, he changed the situation from the decision was already made (bring Torre back) into an opening for the Torre-hating contingent to try to make their case to the "Junior Bosses".
Its politics. Steve Swindal was firmly with Cashman. If he wasn't a %)$#in' moron, Torre's new two year contract would have been announced already. I think H&H are on-board with Cashman, but they are new to this, and why not take time? Their dad's legendary impatience was certainly one of his tragic flaws.
I don't think Torre is being treated poorly, but only because he knows how this game is played. Still, I'd like for the damn thing to be over with already.
20 I'm a total sentimentalist on this point. I think Torre should have the opportunity to manage the last year in the House, close out an era, and then turn over the reins to a new guy in '09. I will admit that my dreams of a hundred years of Yankees dominance (27 in '07, 28 in '08, etc) did die this season, I haven't given up on the idea of Mo'Joe. I think we also tend to get bent out of shape because we haven't won a WS in a while and ignore Joe's very real accomplishments. If we're realistic, making the postseason 12 years running AND losing to the eventual WS team in the past two years isn't really that big a stain on our record.
"If we're gonna win, the players gotta play better,
the coaches gotta coach better,
the manager gotta manage better,
and the owners gotta own better."
34 I would looove to see Sizemore in pinstripes. But if Shapiro trades a 26-year-old leadoff hitter who drew 100 walks and posted 31 Win Shares for Matsui and Damon (combined Win Shares: 32), he should have his head examined.
But I agree with you about the Tribe - I've really warmed up to this team, once the sting of the Yanks' defeat wore off. They're grinders.
As I said yesterday, it was the organizational aspect of the Rockies story that troubled me, not any person's individual beliefs. As for Byrd, I have enormous respect for what he said, even if it is not my way. What struck me was his utter lack of sanctimony - finding God didn't make him perfect, didn't make him better than other people, just helped make him better than he was (in his own view, which is all that matters.) 3 , I had no problem with that statement; he's simply saying that what was a struggle before is still a struggle now. If this has helped him find resolve and find peace with himself, then I don't see that there can be anything bad about it.
Cleveland: .257/.361/.396
Yankees: .272/.357/.421
As for getting Sizemore, forget it, unless you're willing to give up Hughes or Joba. Not only is there the question of value that 36 notes, but Sizemore is probably the most popular Indians player since - well, since Rocky Colavito.
(I wouldn't have mentioned this if nobody else had picked up on william's link.)
Of course, Tek would probably still have had his mask on... since he never takes it off during a confrontation with A-Rod. ;-)
Some people may or may not feel it's appropriate to comment on another's. Sorry, I disagree.
I am going to see this guy next week. I am sorely tempted to tell him that I really respected Pedroia "until he tried to slap the ball out of Martinez's glove" just to see what his reaction will be.
It's the Yankees fault for not telling reporters EXACTLY where the secret meeting was, dontcha know!
Just speculating here.
Ummm, so they allow slapping the ball out of people's hands in AAA, AA? I've never been to a minor league game - someone help me out here...
Derek Jacobi would fit right in to the "veterans" dugout. ;-)
More likely: "I am a Boston sports fan, and therefore all I say and do is right." Like playing a small market vibe whilst having the second largest payroll, $50M more than third place. Bellicheat broke the rules? Nooooo, Mangini is a snitch! Ipso facto, bitches.
http://tinyurl.com/35n774
For those of us "Torre-haters", I wish people would stop making it so personal. I don't, nor do 99.9% of the people that want to see a new manager, hate Joe Torre. He's a great guy by all accounts and brought 4 championships to the Bronx. Thinking that it's time for a new managerial strategy and hating someone are miles apart.
Pedroia is the next player to be placed on a pedestal in Beantown. We'll be hearing about who's better between Cano and Pedrioa for the next few years.
Though apparently Pedroia has already been compared to David Eckstein, so I'm sure we're going to hear all about him from the MSM as time goes on. Especially if he wins RoY.
Oh, another reason the Indians won't trade Sizemore: they have him signed for 5 more years at a total of about $31M. The last three would have been free agency years.
But Sizemore 07:Cleveland :: Jeter 99: Yankees. Way too valuable, and is the franchise. He's going nowhere.
If you could somehow pull it off this winter, I could see declining Abreu's option and moving Melky to right, making Damon the full-time LF and putting Matsui at DH.
But then there's Giambi.
What a logjam. Can't wait until 2009.
69 Thank you, Rainman. ;)
sorry for espn link (yankz, i'm lookin' at you, bro!) and for no tinyurl... : ~
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3067357
Or HP who laughed at Woz when he brought in a primative prototype of the first Apple computer, and was SO sure it was garbage, that HP reliquished their rights to it (which they had by default because Woz worked for them).
The Yankees have been a hugely dysfunctional organization since Steinbrenner took it over. Yes, he turned it from almost nothing into a multi-billion dollar enterprise. And we have produced some excellent ballclubs. But when you consider our financial resources, that we are up against teams who literally have a payroll of 1/3 of ours and produce a better team, it speaks for itself.
There is no reason why, at the ASB, this organization, knowing Torre's contract was up, could not have started and finished the decision making process.
1) The Yankees tank the year.
2) The Yankees come back but miss the PS
3) The Yankees make the PS but not the WS
4) The Yankees win the WS
Thats basically the 4 possible situations we faced at the ASB. Was it that hard to develope a plan in the next 3 months? It may have already been decided that they let Torre go. Whatever it is, the Yankees knew EXACTLY the possibilities coming and could easily have prepared for it. Now it's 7 days past the last game, and they still don't know? You think this is an efficient and effectly run organization?
"But when you consider our financial resources, that we are up against teams who literally have a payroll of 1/3 of ours and produce a better team, it speaks for itself."
Is dead wrong. If you spend 2x more than another team it does not logically stand to reason that your team is going to be 2x better. Players by and large are paid based on their PAST performance and other irrational things like their marquee value, keeping them away from other teams, or the general cut of their jib. There is no 1:1 positive correlation between a players salary and his performance. It doesn't speak for itself. Winning the World Series is really really hard and dependant on luck, and health and all that other crap.
Case in point, the $11 million dollars the Yankees paid to a guy who only played in what, 2 games?
But who want's to read about Pud-roia?
I also disagree that this is a decision that could have been made at the ASB. Aside from results, the direction of the team was altered somewhat with the emergence of Chamberlain and Kennedy as well as the return of Hughes. What's more, it makes no sense to craft cookie cutter formulas designed to produce decisions based on outcomes (kind of like, we have a lead in the 8th, bring in Farnsworth). The Yankees have been wise to let the season (and Torre's contract) play out, and then re-evaluate his status with the team.
This is on Big Stein and his sticking his nose in matters he knows little about. Imagine if he had left Gene Michael and Cashman to run the team, and he and Tampa stayed out of it. We wouldn't have a much better history?
And I know that a lot of Yankee money has gone to holding on to 'our guys', even if it was not the best financial deal. And for that I am greatful. Nonetheless, I look forward to Cashman putting together a WS team on considerably less money then we spend now.
Now, if you look at the Yankees and Indians win totals over a long period, I think the correlation evens itself out. For example, over the last 10 years, the Yankees have averaged 98.3 wins, compared to the Indians at 85.6 (or nearly 15% more). So, in that sense, the Yankees, led by Big Stein, have achieved your 10% better requirement.
I guess you can consider different ways to revise history, but I am very happy Big Stein has been around for the past 30+ years.
Look at it this way, if I'm a procurement officer for IBM and I'm buying a felt tip pen. And it's a really fucking good felt tip pen, but...it's a felt tip pen that I know is going to deteriorate over time, why on earth would I pay the same amount of money for that same exact pen for ten years.
The Giambi contract is an albatross, the Jeter contract will likely be an ablatross by the time it ends, we all know the deal with Pavano. If you want to be so much better than everyone else, you hedge your risk by getting players that you know are 10% better than their peers. But in order to do that, you have to pay through the nose for a long time.
The alternative is to gamble on young guys, who aren't as "proven" but are cheaper. Sometimes those guys work out, and more often they don't.
The Yankees can't really afford to be the A's or the Twins. They are always going to want some of the proven "studs." And in order to get them they are going to have to take on stupid contracts that pay a player the same amount of money over the course of that players decline as it paid him when he was at his peak.
Yes, we have Cano, and Hughes and Melky and Joba, but without A-Rod and Jeter and Abreu and Rivera and Posada we don't even sniff the post season.
And speaking of religion:
1) Will the Yankees re-up Bobby?
2) Will they trade either Mats or JD?
3) Will they give up real talent for Santana (Wang, Cano, TClip)
4) Is Guidry out?
5) If Torre's out, who's the bench coach?
6) Does ARod stay?
I know you are exaggerating to make a point, but the handy example of the CBS ownership days goes to show that it is possible to screw up the Yankees as a business.
Plus, we seem to assume that the debate is simply 'Torre stay or go.' I rather suspect it's Torre stay v. go depending on a host of other factors (and then a host of other factors that depend of his position). Do they have a viable candidate in mind? Is it possible/probable to sign him? How much is the team willing to risk not rehiring Torre even if their top candidates for replacement fall through? If Torre statys, what coaching staff whould stay around him? How much relative power will the manager and general manager have in determining roster make-up, and so on.
This, I suspect, is why the decision has not been made yet. And it needn't, because they don't owe Torre anything, really, until the last day of his contract (nor does he owe the team anything).
based on nothing, i think that the longer this takes to announce, the more likely it is that he stays.
82 I think that the real tragedy of this season is that all of the veterans we want to keep around are becoming free agents, while all the ones we don't want around are locked into soul-crushing long term contracts.
On the larger point of free-agent acquisition, it's a suboptimal strategy for exactly the reasons 82 lists in his post. If you're going to sign a long contract, it's best to do it with a guy who's going to be 32 in 7 years, not 42.
On a personal level, I'd rather watch young, inexperienced players screw up than veteran players underperform their contracts.
http://blog.nj.com/ledgeryankees/
Ed Price of the Star Ledger is updating every hour with details like who arrived when, who's coming outside for cigarette breaks.
It's completely over the top. I love it.
Price went with bad info on the Mattingly story the other day, but why would you call the paper a sad rag? Everybody gets it wrong sometimes, especially in situations like this. They're not publishing Lupica so you have to admit they have that going for them.
I suppose that, if the Yankees really don't want to give the long-term contract to ARod, they could sign Jones to a one-year deal(which is all Boras wants apparently) and trade Melky in a package to the Cubs for Aramis Ramirez who seemingly has worn out his welcome in Chicago. Ramirez can opt out of his $15 million/year contract after 2010
The idea is that what they miss by losing ARod's offense is offset by what they could pick up from the Jones offensive upgrade.
This makes sense, but I have to admit that it isn't exactly a pleasant scenario.
Melky = 93
And Melky is 10 years younger and makes the minimum. It's a downgrade at two positions.
How has Ramirez worn out his welcome in Chicago? The guy's a stud.
they'd probably want cano.
they could use a corner OF, so melky might be an attractive option.
i'm sure they'd ask about hughes and joba.
the only other guy i can think of that might be an option for minnesota (as a throw in) might be kennedy.
santana won't come cheap. the yankees will have to pay up to get him, but if they can hold onto joba and hughes (and cano?) and still get him, they should.
(understatement of the day.)
100 and 101 Apparently, Ramirez acquired the reputation of not hustling this year. Maybe it's a personality conflict with Lou.
If ARod doesn't stay, Chicago is probably the most likely destination for him. Moreno made comments yesterday that indicate that the Angels do have a budget.
The Yankees contend every year. That is both something that they can do because of their financial resources and at the same time the cause of their huge payroll.
The Indians, as someone mentioned, are the product of a rebuilding program. They were under .500 for three years (including a really bad 2003), before coming roaring back in 2005 (falling short, but winning 93 games), but then had a bad year in 2006. They made the playoffs this year for the first time since 2001.
As a result of that, they no doubt got some draft picks that the Yanks will never have due to winning ~95 games ever year. The Yankees still have their financial advantage, of course, and have learned to use it more in the draft and internationally - good. But let's not pretend it's as simple as the Indians payroll + 96 wins & ALCS > Yankees payroll + 94 wins & ALDS loss. The Yankees have never blown it up and rebuilt.
And do you really want them to? When they can still manage to win 90+ games a season and develop talent like Wang, Cano, Melky, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy... I say NO, and just accept that their payroll will remain nutty. The Yankees, with their resources, can rebuild and contend all at the same time - and they're finally doing it right. The future is bright.
3 p.m.: Grounds gets attention
Posted by Ed Price October 17, 2007 3:09PM
Categories: Latest news
Editor's Note: Yankees beat writer Ed Price is in Tampa and will file updates at the top of every hour - and more often if needed.
As the meeting continue (as far as I can tell) in the Legends Field offices, a grounds crew attends to the half-field just outside the stadium.
The field is used for pickoff drills, pitchers' fielding practice and perhaps bunt work. So there seems no way it will be used until mid-February. But the workers are cutting the grass and watering the dirt as it a game will be played there tonight.
102 Trading Wang and Cano in a deal for Santana is not a good idea in my opinion. Santana is about 9 winshares better than Wang, but he will cost a lot more money and then the Yankees would have to replace Cano.
I'm not even sure that the Twins would take the arbitration-eligible Yankees over a Dodgers offer of Kershaw and Kemp. To compete with the Dodgers' offer, the Yankees would probably have to give up Chamberlain or Hughes.
Now batting for the visiting Torrestays (stays, stays)...number thurty-three (three, three) Brian (brian) Cashman (man, man)...
Number thurty-three (three, three)
Waldman: The stakes are high here, John. It's not just a game on the line... it's a man (chokes up) a man named (sobbing) Joe... I'm sorry... (sniff) a man who has meant so much to this club.
Sterling: Cashman is ready... thuh pitch... IT IS HIGH... IT IS FAR... IT IS... ball 1... you're absolutely right about Joe, Suzyn. He HAS meant a lot to this team. How can you put it into WORDS? If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: you can not predict baseball.
If ARod walks, does it make sense for the Yankees to spend so much money on Posada, Mo, and Abreu? That's a tough call, especially if they don't try to replace ARod with someone better than Betemit (or even Lowell).
103 With the sale of the Cubs in limbo, they aren't going to be in on A-Rod. I don't see how they could be. Too much money, too many questions.
*please do not get offended. I do not actually believe Bob Sheppard is God. Or anything else associated with any religious discussion.
(please see standuptriple's caveat. It was a joke.)
OTOH, he would make Melky, a pretty valuable chip, expendable.
Interesting fact though, God did mention to once that though he loves baseball he's pretty strict about not messing with the games. Even if a player has a dead momma begging him to help out.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109127/
It is time to cut ties with him and rebuild around team players.
Let Boras try to get his 500 mil elsewhere. He won't come close.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21224927
Besides that, I read something pretty convincing recently that put Arod's value at 48 mil a year. I'll look for it, but don't hold your breath. Anyone wanna help?
In fact, it might trump just about everything.
127 Boras also went around talking about how Johnny Damon was a sure-fire Hall of Famer, the greatest leadoff man since Rickey Henderson, and that he was going to get a seven-year deal for $15M/year. Just because Boras says it doesn't make it true.
But I would trade Hughes + Jackson (that's as close as we can get to Kemp) for Santana, probably, assuming we could extend Johan. But then again, we do have Joba, IPK, and a dozen others.
It's enough to make me tune in tonight.
As the guy who sells me my beer and wine said, "It's still baseball," after all.
It's especially baseball if I can watch Boston lose.
Winter's evil.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/03/the_mazzone_eff_1.php
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0791924/bio
Or this,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Sheppard
History can be your friend.
Angels: Moreno was pretty definitive in that LA Times article.
White Sox: No way Reinsdorf pays anyone $30 million per year.
Mets: Wright/Reyes block the way.
Dodgers: Also too cheap.
However, there were only six such pitchers, and the data is obviously very skewed. Daniel Cabrera, who just has to be uncoachable, saw his ERA go up a full point. Bruce Chen went from being a starter with a 3.83 ERA to a reliever with a 6.93 ERA. I seriously doubt Mazzone had much to do with that. It was probably injury, regression, or some combination.
I would crunch the numbers for 06 to 07 and an overall 05 to 07, but there's no point. Just not enough good data IMO.
At the same time, I can't bring myself to root for Boston. And I can't take the NL seriously.
So I just pretend that the season is over.
Am I alone on this?
Cleveland is the best of a lot of bad options.
There are also those who say that if the team that beat you wins it all, at least you got beat by the best.
1. I am starting to suspect that the decision with regard to Torre may be more closely tied into the A-Rod deal than I first thought. That is, A-Rod may have placed some constraints on who he would play for and the Yanks may want to wait until they know whether A-Rod is going to come back before they pull the trigger on the managerial decision.
2. With all due respect to Zimmer, nobody has job security in professional sports (other than Isiah Thomas, apparently). And nobody gets treated the "right way". Does Mo, the best reliever in the history of baseball, deserve to be kept waiting to find out whether he will be playing another year or two in Yankee Stadium?
Every player underneath Joe, regardless of talent, hall-of-fame status, or years in pinstripes, gets to the end of their last contract-year season without knowing what will happen.
If Mo, Posada, etc. can handle a few weeks of uncertainty, so can the skipper.
144 As a baseball fan, as opposed to a Yankees fan, I think seeing the Serious in Colorado is going to be fun, so I'm pulling for the Rockies. If there wasn't such a good general story, I'd be in the same boat as you.
my dad tells me that in 1986 after the world series mets fans were basically rioting in the streets in queens where he worked. he claims that the only reason a crazy group of fans didn't overturn his little nissan was because they saw him walk out of his building towards the car and mistook his old school knicks jacket for a mets jacket. it was a pretty cool jacket though.
http://tinyurl.com/2zlt47
Thank god for Derek Jeter. I can't think of a single Yankee who would say something like that. How the hell do people root for this clown?
150 i read bob's post, but didn't follow the link. perhaps i should...
1) For starters, the Yankees' attendance has been gradually rising since 1996. While I think you can give Arod some credit for the 2003-2004 bump, it doesn't make sense to compare 2003 to 2007 and claim Arod is the difference. Regardless, in it's last season, YS is going to be sold out, regardless of who is on the team. Then after that, the new Stadium will likely be sold out in 2009 and for a few years into the future. As things stand, the Yankees probably wouldnt even need to field a good team to sell out over the next two seasons.
2) Boras also is claiming that YES' ratings are attributable to Arod. Once again, that claim is hard to make beyond the 2003-2004 timeframe.
3) Boras claims that the valuation of YES will be lessened by losing Arod's $20mn contribution to cash flow, which he claims should value Arod at a greater than 2x multiple. Off the bat, that would only be relevant if the Yankees were looking to see YES or borrow heavily off of the asset. What's more, a higher valuation for YES could actually hurt the Yankees in the short-term if the rumors about Goldman Sachs selling out to the Yankees are accurate.
4) Finally, even if Arod was worth $50mn to the Yankees, Boras is forgetting about the luxury tax. In reality, that $50mn salary would equate to a cost of $70mn, which likely would mitigate against all the benefits Boras claims. If you adjust Boras' $50mn figure for the tax, you get to a number a lot closer to $35mn.
Off the top of my head, the $35mn number also seems inflated. Once you clear away some of the noise in Boras' valuation, I think the correct number will be closer to $30mn, which is the ballpark I think Arod will be in. Now, as for the years? I wonder how Boras determines the value of the 40 year old Arod. Does he really think fans will be pouring out to see him at the point (especially as he'd have smashed all the records several years earlier, by most projections)?
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