Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Mike Mussina only lasted three innings last night. If not for a tremendous Willie Mays-style catch by Melky Cabrera with the bases loaded and a questionable out call at home on a great throw by Robinson Cano, Mussina might not have made it out of the first. As it was, his final line was 3 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 0 HR.
After the game, Mussina compared his performance to his previous two stinkers:
The first two games I was trying to pick corners, throw a lot of offspeed pitches, pitch backwards all the time. Today I thought I was going right after people. I threw a lot more fastballs today. I got ahead in counts today. I had a lot of two-strike counts. [Moose threw 68 percent of his pitches for strikes last night compared to 64 and 56 percent in his last two starts.] And when they put the ball in play, they just put it in play someplace where we weren't playing defense.
Moose would later return to that excuse, saying that the Tigers only hit three balls hard off him and curiously asserting that his velocity isn't down from when he was pitching well (it is). While it's true that some of those nine hits were seeing-eye ground balls, flares, and flies that dropped just out of the reach of Melky Cabrera and Bobby Abreu, there were still nine of them in three innings, and, again, Moose was saved by his defense in the first inning.
Despite that excuse, Mussina wasn't defiant. If anything, he sounded lost while reflecting on his last three starts:
I really don't feel like I can do much of anything right . . . Probably the last nine innings are the worst nine innings I've pitched in my whole career, in a row. It's tough to take. I don't even know how to describe it because I've never had to deal with it before. . . Right now I let go of [the ball] and I don't feel like anything good is going to happen. It's tough to pitch that way. You can't play the game that way. You feel like you have no control over anything, and that's how I feel right now. Even the sixty feet six inches [from the mound to the plate] doesn't seem like I have a grasp of, and two weeks ago I felt like I could do anything I wanted. And that's how this game is, it'll slap you in the face when you think you've got it. And I felt good about it, and now I don't feel good at all.
And so the question becomes, will Mike Mussina take his next turn against Tampa Bay on Saturday. Peter Abraham thinks it's "unlikely" citing Mussina's 7.59 ERA in two starts against the Rays this season (Moose had one quality start and one disaster in consecutive starts against the Rays in mid-June, the former in Tampa, the latter in the Bronx, but he allowed 13 baserunners and strike out none in six innings in the "quality" start). Mussina had this to say:
If Joe thinks that somebody else can give us a lift or do the job better, then that's up to him. I'm certainly not hoping that somebody else is taking my spot. I want to keep going out there and figure out what's going on, because I can't believe in three starts that I forgot how to pitch after seventeen years. So I hope he has confidence enough in me to keep sending me out there and let me figure this out, but at the same time we've got to win ballgames, and I'll understand if he thinks that we need to do something else.
For his part, Torre said that he and Ron Guidry would talk to Mussina today to determine his status for his next start and that he should have some answers on Mussina's status soon, but did not offer any immediately following the game last night. Torre suggested that what Mussina has to say would greatly influence the decision. Looking at the above quote from Mussina, I could see it going either way. Moose obviously wants to keep going out there, but that he even acknowledged the fact that a change might be best for the ballclub is a huge admission and could signal to Torre and Guidry that a change may indeed be necessary.
As for how that change might be implemented, Mussina's not hurt, so it would take considerable trickery to put him on the DL, which means the Yankees would have to play a man short in the pen in order to add a replacement starter to the roster in the short term. rosters expand on Saturday, so the only difficulty the Yankees might have in adding an extra pitcher is if they want to bring up someone who's not currently on the 40-man. As to who that starter might be, Ian Kennedy has been fantastic since being promoted to triple-A along with Joba Chamberlain, but, like Joba, Kennedy is a first-year pro on a strict innings limit. Joba's supposedly being held to 130 total innings (he's at 97 1/3 right now). Kennedy has already thrown 146 1/3 across three minor league levels. He's also not on the 40-man. I'd be very surprised to see the Yankees push him into the major league rotation at this point in the season, despite his minor league dominance.
Kei Igawa has pitched better for Scranton than he did for the big club, but he hasn't been great (2-2, 4.21 ERA in six starts since his last demotion). Steven White has posted a 3.75 ERA and a 2-2 record in his last six starts for Scranton, but has never pitched in the majors. The last two men in the Scranton rotation are Matt DeSalvo and Jeff Karstens, neither of whom I want to see in the Bronx again this year. To my mind it's between Igawa and White. Igawa would be closer to regular rest on Saturday having last started on Sunday, while White last started on Friday. Also, of the four pitchers I just mentioned, White is the only one who is not on the 40-man roster. So, really, that's the question Torre and Guidry will be asking themselves today: With the season running down and every game crucial to the Yankees' postseason hopes, are they better off hoping that Mike Mussina can find those five miles per hour on his fastball and the break on his curveball that have gone missing in his last three starts, or are they better off hoping that the third time's the charm for Igawa, who went 0-2 with a 5.97 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and seven homers in six starts after his last recall from the minors (though the Yankees went 4-2 in those six games)?
As for the rest of last night's game, Justin Verlander was in top form, holding the Yankees to three hits and a pair of walks over seven scoreless innings, and Zach Miner mopped up with a pair of perfect innings. The only Yankee to reach second base was Bobby Abreu with two outs in the first, and the closest the Yankees got to a run all night was a drive by Hideki Matsui that was caught at the top of the right field wall by Ryan Raburn in the seventh.
Meanwhile, Edwar Ramirez allowed a solo home run to Placido Polanco in his lone inning of work, and Sean Henn continued his impression of Oscar the death-dealing cat by appearing in four of the Yankees' five losses on the road trip, topping this one off by allowing nine runs in 2 2/3 innings to set the final score at 16-0. Henn's last six outings have all come in Yankee losses. He posted a 21.60 ERA on the road trip, taking the loss in both extra inning games, and giving up 18 runs in 6 2/3 innings while mopping up in Mussina's two starts. Expect Henn to get farmed out before tonight's game. The only question is whether or not the Yankees finally bring back Chris Britton, or if they'll instead feel the need to replace Henn with either a lefty or a long man, in which case Kei Igawa could make a very different return to the majors than anticipated above.
Pre All-Star: 10-3 with a 3.24 ERA with .224 BAA
Post All-Star: 5-4 with a 3.96 ERA with .268 BAA
The American League Average ERA was 4.56 with .272 BAA
At worst, Moose was a League average pitcher the two years before with spots of brilliance. With his very above average performance last year, no one predicted this rapid collapse.
The question is if it is a slump (the worst of his career) or the end?
And at least according to ESPN, his velocity was not bad -- they had him at 91 and even 92 in the 2nd and again in the 3rd.
All of which is to say that he looked better tonight than in the previous 2 starts.
The problem tho -- and this is why you can't just say he was unlucky -- is that Moose is simply incapable of putting batters away. How many 0-2 and 1-2 counts did he let slip away? He seemed to pitch confidently to start each batter off, and then go back to nibbling, breaking balls away, away, away.
If you can't put any batters away and allow everyone to put the ball in play, some of those are balls are going to be hit where fielders ain't.
I'm not even sure how much of that can be blamed on Moose though, the nibblng that is. I've become increasingly disenchanted with Jorge behind the plate, his fielding and his pitch calling.
The wild pitch/passed balls have been ridiculous lately. I also think there's a relunctance on his part to call for pitches inside, and not just with Moose.
Someone in the game thread noted that Leiter had mentioned that Phil Hughes' problem was that he only had 2 pitches. Well, from what I've read, Phil has a decent change and slider. Why isn't Jorge mixing them in?
Also, the Polanco homer -- wtf? Polanco sits first pitch fastball all the time. He makes his living off that. So instead of calling for the change, Jorge has Edwar throw him the fastball. Sure Edwar grooved it right down the middle belt high, but really. I wonder if anyone else is having the same questions about Jorge?
All that said, we're still well within striking distance of Seattle even after this week. Sad to see the division slipping away though. We've lost 4 games to Boston in 8 days as they go 6-1 and we go 2-5. Now even if we sweep them, we're still further out than we were a week ago. Dagnammit.
(Ironic, because last year, Jorgie pointed to Moose as a guy he had great rapport with, as opposed to RJ.)
Kennedy is not on the 40-man, so a move will have to be made in order to call him up. I don't think it will happen. They could put Villone on the 60-day, or DFA him, but even if they do, his roster spot will probably to to Minky, who will likely be back as soon as rosters expand.
The unfortunate thing for Moose is that these three clunkers have come all in a row at a crucial time. Had the schedule sprinkled in a few KC/Tampa/White Sox games amid the Tigers/Angels, I'm sure there would be no furor. The combination of tougher teams and the wear and tear of a season on an old arm, however, has conspired to bury the Moose.
I'd be inclined to give Mussina one more start before pulling the plug. His next scheduled opponents would be TB, KC and Toronto and Baltimore two times. There are no power houses in that group, so maybe he can steady himself. At worst, he'd improve his trade value for next season. Now, the Yankees are still alive and can't afford to let Moose straighten himself out, but that could be a moot point very soon. With three games against Boston and Seattle sandwiched around Mussina's next start, how the Yankees play over the next 10 games might make the decision easy. Who knows, you may ultimately wind up in a situation where both Kennedy and Mussina are auditioning in the rotation over the last 20 games.
Depending on what moves the Yankees make in the off season, I think the best bet is for him to relocate somewhere in the National League. I think he would be very successful pitching in one of the bigger ballparks with a younger defense behind him and weaker lineups at the plate. I don't think he is done as a major league pitcher. I just think he is done as a pitcher for the New York Yankees. If that's the case, I think he can hold his head up high because he was a very good Yankee (and I don't care if he doesn't have a ring).
Karstens' and Igawa's chances of helping the Yankee-cause this season are about the same as Michael Vick's chances of landing an endorsement deal with Hush Puppies.
Don't want to unshackle Kennedy's chastity belt just yet? OK, try Steven White. Maybe he can Aaron Small his way through the last few weeks of the season.
This boogie's a mess.
Was YES on that? What went down?
but sometimes there's more to it than that.
There is no doubt this team is better then Seattle and much better then we have seen last week. But there is NO time left. This team must solve it issues and start playing Yankee baseball.
Everything said about Moose is true, both the good and the bad. What 'impressed' me the most was that Moose threw NOTHING inside. Nothing on the inside half, nothing just off the plate inside, nothing brush-back inside.
A pitcher, especially one in his 'latter' years cannot win using only half the plate. Every Detroit batter was looking middle-out, and hitting those pitches hard. No was was afraid to lean over the plate. No one was hit on the handle.
As someone pointed out, maybe Posada is culpable for some of our pitching performances. No matter how good or bad our pitchers throw, yop must use the entire strike zone and the entire area just outside the strike zone. Mixing pitches up, down, in, and out, may be more important then mixing fastball, curve, change.
It's Mosse especially, but our entire staff, outside of Clemens and Mo, needs to work inside more. A pitch high and tight is intimadating, one high and out is not. Hitting the ball off the end of the bat doesn't hurt near as much as hitting one off the hands.
Pena and Torre know this. The played in an era where pitching inside, brushing back, and even hitting a few players was just part of the game.
Do we get pitched inside? Does Jetes ever get hit in the hands? We have to STOP being such gentlemen when we take the mound.
Moose's problems, Clemens' problems, Hughes' problems, etc. have little if anything to do with Posada, the way I see it.
Prediction - Britton up for Henn today. Igawa added on Saturday. (eeeks)
I'm not suggesting he's the answer, but we have a good idea of what we can expect from Karstens, Igawa, De Salvo etc. and anybody looking forward to that? Me neither.
Barring Kennedy, I'd say White's worth a shot, even if somebody (Doug Out?) has to get kicked to the curb.
I'd like to see Kennedy, but we've seen the struggles Hughes has had and I wouldn't expect a ton out of Kennedy either at this stage. I think if Hughes was pitching better, then we would definitely see Kennedy get the start.
He was not consistently hitting his targets.
Moose seemed to be holding his right shoulder higher than usual. He looked really tense and awkward.
How can Moose "go right after people" with an 86 MPH fastball?
There are some pitchers (e.g. Wang, Wells) who can thrive on letting the batters put the ball in play. Moose has never been among them. He cannot be effective without the strikeout.
Moose and Torre both mentioned that the hamstring could be acting up. Moose acknowledge that it's been "sore," and Torre observed that he doesn't have "the spring that he needs." Perhaps a 2-week rest will do him some good. A stint on the 15-day DL would be appropriate, though with roster expansion, they don't need to go there.
Ironically, most of his outs were on soft stuff, and his best at bat was his last last against Granderson, whom he retired on three pitches at 71 (swinging strike), 77 (called strike) and 76 (ground out).
I'm more concerned with him missing his spots. There have been pitchers that have succeeded & failed in MLB with sub 90's fastballs, there have been pitchers who've succeeded & failed with 90+ fastballs.
How sad is it that a team with this number of resources is scrambling like this to find answers.
When you rely on washed up pitchers who can't throw fastballs past anyone, this is what you get.
When will anyone in this orgnanization learn this?
some adjustments must be made, though.
Still, if the choice is Moose vs Igawa, I'd like to see what's behind door number 3, and pretend door number 2 (Igawa) doesn't exist. Damn shame they can't throw Joba out there for the start, then move him back to the pen, but that might be asking too much in terms of injury risk.
In other words, remaking himself as a Moyer clone isn't going to get the job done.
23, 12, 16.
Moose has had only 2 prior 3-game streaks with "Game Scores" under 30:
End of '03 to Beginning of '04
End of June 1993 to beginning of July 1994
I'm trying to find out the last team to surrender 42 runs in 3 consecutive starts by the same pitcher (as the Yanks have done in Moose's last 3 starts).
A #4 can be league-average. A #5 can be a bit below, but the present-day Moose isn't even on the map.
At this point, Pettitte is a low #1 or high #2. Wang has regressed to a #3. Clemens and Hughes are both solid #4s. There is no #5. How's Rasner's finger doing?
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