Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Offense: The Yankees scored 6.25 runs per game against a Tigers team that had been allowing 6.70 runs per game over their previous 27 games. I'm going to call that disappointing, especially as they got a few lucky hops along the way.
Studs:
Bobby Abreu 8 for 16, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 R, 2 BB, 2 SB
Andy Phillips, 6 for 11, 2B, 4 RBI, R, BB
Jason Giambi 4 for 13, 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 5 K
Jorge Posada, 5 for 16, HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, 2 BB
Johnny Damon 4 for 11, HR, RBI, 2 R, 2 BB
Wilson Betemit 2 for 6, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 K
Duds:
Derek Jeter 3 for 12, 3 R, BB, 2 K, GIDP
Melky Cabrera 3 for 12, BB, 3 K, CS
Shelley Duncan struck out in his only at-bat of the series. Jose Molina did not appear.
Rotation: A solid showing with three quality starts followed Mike Mussina's stinker (5 IP, 7 R) in the opener. Andy Pettitte was again the best, holding the Tigers to one run on five hits and a walk over eight while striking out five. Roger Clemens and Chein-Ming Wang combined to strike out 14 Tigers in 12 innings, though they also allowed 19 hits. Clemens allowed two runs and walked no one. Wang allowed three, walked two, and also balked and bounced to wild pitches.
Bullpen: Farming out Jeff Karstens and Jim Brower and bringing back Edwar Ramirez has done wonders for a bullpen that had already benefited from replacing Scott Proctor with Joba Chamberlain. Sean Henn (who replaced Karstens) was the only reliever who didn't appear in this series and together the remaining six men allowed just one run and only five baserunners in 11 innings while striking out 14.
The Good:
Edwar Ramirez struck out three in two perfect innings in the finale. Joba Chamberlain faced the meat of the Tiger order twice and allowed just a single while striking out three in two scoreless innings. Kyle Farnsworth allowed just a walk while striking out two in two scoreless innings. Luis Vizcaino did the same replacing the walk with a single. Mariano Rivera pitched around a walk to earn the save in Saturday's game, striking out one.
The Bad:
Ron Villone struck out three men in his two innings in the opener, but also allowed a solo homer to Ivan Rodriguez. Then again, Rodriguez was Villone's only baserunner in those two innings.
Conclusion: If Joe Torre starts trusting Edwar Ramirez late in close games like he did in the finale, something he already does with Chamberlain, and Farnsworth can continue to succeed in the earlier innings (his two innings in this series came in the sixth on Thursday and seventh on Saturday), Vizcaino won't be overworked and can slot in either the middle or late innings as needed, and Mariano Rivera will get the rest down the stretch that he's seemed to need in recent years. That means that, save perhaps for swapping Villone out for Chris Britton, the bullpen is as fixed as the bench, which puts the onus now on the starting pitchers to perform up to their abilities and reputations. If that happens, this team could be unstoppable.
Also, there seems to be a meme starting in the media that Joba is/should be Mo's successor and that if the Yankees return him to a starting role, they will be stupid or inept (to paraphrase Jayson Stark). It's fun to watch Joba come out of the bullpen, but I'd still rather see him pitching every 5th day next season.
I'm not worried about Detroit. A split is the worst I would expect. If we take 2 of 3 from LA, then when LA and Seattle bump heads, we would benefit either way.
However, the only way to the Division title is to take at least 4 of 6 from Boston. They also have a soft September. If we split or lose to them, the Division becomes a real longshot.
I therefore, would work the rotation around those 6 games.
Anyone know our rotation for the first 3 against Boston?
He belongs in the rotation where he will be just fine and will probably be as dominating as he is.
The only way I'd like Joba as a reliever is if he's a failure as a starter; or if the Yankees rotation next year suddenly becomes
Wang
Hughes
Santana
Peavy
Webb
Joba and Hughes behind Wang next year is going to be a nice top three, Edwar as a bridge to Mo will be sweet.
9 And I'm 99% certain that Mo resigns with the Yanks.
as much as i'd love to see the kid come in and shut down the sox for a couple of innings in each game, i'd be happy to see him work his magic as he has been.
if it ain't broke...
Dice-K vs. Andy
Beckett vs Roger
Schrill vs. Wang
Looks like the key game is the first one.
He also talks about things like OBP and OPS being much more important than things like BA and lambasts idiot callers for citing RBIs or BA. He's not perfect, but compared to Mike and the Mad Dog or Kay, he's brilliant.
they have 3 more games in mid-september.
they could meet up in october, too.
that's just my thinking on it, but what do i know?
What will Jorge want? 3/$39? More? What would the FA market dictate? How about Mo? 3/$32? More? They will both wants 3 years, yes? And year 3 could be bad news for us, yes? Opinions?
What is a critic to do?
This is what we are reduced to; should we trade Farnsworth if we get a decent offer no matter how well he is pitching? Is anyone willing to trust him again? It is not like we actually need him with others waiting in the wings.
This lack of topics drives the all the Santana speculation while what Cashman is really spending his time on is how to re-sign Rivera/Posada/Rodriquez within 10 days of the World Series and how to deal with a train-wreck of a 40 man roster in the off-season.
Can we get some more of those?
Mo, on the other hand, no longer looks anything like the player he was even two years ago. He's been a hall of fame reliever but do you think he'd be your go to guy in 2010?
other than that, no pressure.
28 word.
Then, once that stretch has concluded, the Mariners face Oakland, the Angels and Cleveland, leaving just 7 "easy games" against Tampa and Texas at home.
Finally, it should be noted that between August 17 and September 23, the Mariners have one scheduled day off (whereas the Yankees have 4). That kind of grueling schedule could really take its toll.
The Yanks signed the top Venezuelan prospect last year, a catcher named Jesus Montero. He is in his first State-side season with the GCL Yankees and hitting OK.
The Yankees just signed two of their top draft choices in the 2007 draft, 2nd rounder C Austin Romine and 6th rounder C Chase Weems. They are a ways away but come with good reps.
At AA this year, PJ Pilitere did a great job of handling the pitching staff and did OK with the bat. He needs to hit better at AAA next year to be any use for the Yanks. At Tampa (High-A) Francisco Cervelli started out on fire with good BA and OBP but has tailed off as the season went along. He's on a little bit of an upsing recently to bring his average back into the .280s.
The Yankees are hoping one of this group accelerates his develop and makes it to the majors before Posada takes a full-time ride to 1st base/DH.
i was aware of montero, but i figured he was a ways off, i thought he was around 19 though.
also, chase weems is a great baseball name.
There are (at least) three teams in MLB who can readily afford to deal with giving a guy a three or four year deal, and watching him decline big-time in year 3. Because they have the resources, either $$$ or internally, to replace those parts. The Yanks are one of those teams. (IMO, the others are the Mets, who do it, and the Red Sox, who don't do it.)
25 I think seeing what happens with the 40-man roster in the offseason is going to be fascinating. There are so many guys who need a spot. I can't wait to see what Cashman does to make it all work.
Even when they were seemingly dead in the water, Max was finding the positives in every game. And now he just looks that much smarter now that they're contending.
A few days ago I mentioned his analysis of what Torre was doing with Farnsworth in the blowout games - as in slowly building Kyle's Konfidence, inch by inch, so that he might be brought into a more crucial situation should we need him.
Fast forward to Saturday afternoon and KK makes Sheffield look like a girlie man on some high cheese. I was absolutely LOVING it, and more so because I had the same hopes for Farnsworth that Kellerman did all these weeks since the trading deadline.
Thinking about the roster got me thinking about next year's payroll.
Let's say the Yanks:
Re-sign Mo and Posada for $13M/year each.
Sign Betemit for one year at $3M, avoiding arbitration.
Pick up Abreu's option for $16M.
Replace Clemens's rotation slot with Joba.
Replace Villone with Britton.
Replace Joba's bullpen slot with Bruney.
And replace Vizcaino with Igawa (yeah, I know how loved Kei is, just go with me).
And keep the rest of the team the way it is.
Including pro-rated signing bonuses, He Who Must Not Be Named's salary, and payments made to minor leaguers (like Brackman), the Yanks 2008 payroll before A-Rod gets a cent comes to . . .
(Are you ready?)
(Are you sure you're ready?)
(Boy I hope I figured this right)
$157.8M
I am now convinced - there is no way the Yanks don't re-sign A-Rod. The money is there, even without Texas's help.
However, some food for thought might involve September call ups - might the Alberto Gonzalez make an appearance in an Andy Cannizaro role? Does his potential to be an UIF become irrelevant now that we have Betemit?
The big questions for next year must be what to do with Damon, and what to do about first base. What about a Shelly/Juan Miranda platoon for 1B? Shifting Matsui to 1B, and putting Damon in Left (or just Damon to 1B) has seemed like a good option since last winter... Even better now? Betemit has to be the best UIF in history, but he's not much for a 1B, and having him around would allow Jeter & A-Rod (and Cano really) some well deserved rest.
Even given the difficulty of this coming road trip for us, the Mariners schedule looks much harder. Especially since the As, who the M's have ripped this season, are showing signs of playing better ball.
And even the minnows in the Seattle schedule, eg Texas, have played Seattle well (6-6).
Even if we drop off the .700 pace we've set since the break, say back down to .600 ball, we should still blow Seattle away.
(Of course, I don't think we'll need the wild card!)
He's not going to hit for the greatest average, but he's got the power and the patience to be a perfect fit for this lineup. He's already the best option we have at 1st base and he's only 25.
and ... unless your definition of "super-sub" means "starts almost all games at 1st base against RHP" i don't see how he'll get anything close to 400 abs in a year, barring significant injury
frankly, though, you're right, we don't know if he can't hit LHP, i'm all for putting him at 1stbase for 500+ abs next year and finding out
He's pretty much of a one-pitch pitcher; he can show a couple of other pitches, but he uses them to set up the change. It's got insane movement, and so far ML batters really haven't seen a pitch like it. But the question is, when ML hitters have seen him two or three times and they know the change is coming, will he still be able to fool them with it?
Mo has been able to do that with his cutter, and I want to wait and see what happens with Edwar.
Re: the discussion of whether Joba should be Mo. Remember, even Rivera only became a reliever after he failed as a starter. If Joba only had the fastball and slider, I could see making him a reliever. but since he apparently has more of a repertoire, put him in the rotation.
Finally, I think you really need to have one credible lefty in an ML bullpen.
50 As mentioned earlier, Trevor Hoffman is a rather successful one-pitch pitcher (change-up). But, for the point of the conversation, I mainly agree with you.
I don't advocate not signing Mo just because Edwar is making hitters look foolish the first time around. That would be just folly. Mo has definitely earned his paycheck even if he just wants $15 mill/year to sun himself in the Yankee bullpen while dreaming of a retirement spent polishing his plaque in monument park and Cooperstown. Edwar can spend the next few years as set-up man and emergency closer, I think we'll have a decent sample size by then.
As for a lefty, think Kei Igawa.
Mo and Clemens have to be considered about equally as good (over their careers) in their respective roles (relative to their peers) right? Maybe Clemens gets because he's been at it longer, but it's close, right? (What I am not saying is that Mo is as good a pitcher as Clemens - I have no grounds for comparison on that question.)
So Clemens was valued at $28 million in what could only be a declining year and Mo got 10.5 (let's call it 13 to compare free agency years) also a similar declining year. This is obviously anecdotal, but clearly EVERYONE values a great starter more than a great closer.
Mariano: average ERA+ 194 over 13 years
Clemens: Average ERA+ 143 over 24 years
I would love to know the VORP of these two this year (where's that prospectus subscription?). Or their WXRL. Or average salary per pitching percentile determined by WXRL for starting and closing roles.
Seriously, how many wins do you lose by putting Clemens in the pen?
Unfreaking believable that someone would even consider keeping Joba in the pen next year. Unbelievable.
Be nice...I live in LA and have to listen to Rex Hudler tonight.
They will not trade JD for a bag of balls. If they get decent value/decent price, yes. But by not having him as the everyday CF, there is a good chance he will stay healthy next year. I also think he will work harder this winter then ever before. He doesn't like sitting. If he can play 1st, we have a good offensive line up (with Melky, Abreu, Mats, JD and Giambi all everyday guys).
With JD at 1st/DH/LF and Jason at DH/little at 1st, Shelly at 1B/RF, Betemin and Phillips, we have tremendous flexibility... like we haven't seen in MANY years.
Will leverage have that big of an impact?
Joba-A starts, Joba-B closes. With any luck, in 2009, Joba-C is our middle relief.
You right, 80IPs has limited value. But if SPs can go 200 IPs, how about a relieve going 120-130 ips?
But, of course, Joba has to start.
I was using Joba as an example. If he pitched the seventh and eighth, or eighth and ninth and put in 140-150 innings, he could be more valuable to a team than a stud starter, especially in a time when starters are rarely expected to pitch more than six innings per appearance, and an ERA of 4.5 is percieved as "quality."
I haven't seen Hoffman enough to speak confidently about how he gets people out, but I have seen Mariano succeed as a one-pitch pitcher. But his pitch is so good that, even though ML hitters know it's coming, they still can't hit it.
So far, it's hard to tell whether Edwar's succeeding because his stuff is unhittable or because it's unique. (Has anyone ever seen a change that moves like that?) If it's the latter, ML hitters should figure it out eventually. That's my only point: I'm reserving judgment until they've seen him a few more times.
[/quibble rant]
A closer pitches far, far fewer innings than a starter, obviously. But balancing that are two factors. First, he pitches the most important innings of the season (if handled right). And you want your best pitcher throwing the most important innings. Second, he can throw harder for his fewer innings, so if he's the right kind of pitcher he can be absolutely dominant in a way that a starter never can. (I think this is true of Papelbon, for instance, and of Gagne a few years ago, and of Mo for years.)
That said, if Joba can be as good a starter as he is a relief pitcher, I do think the extra innings are more important and he should start.
Looks like another must win. Wouldn't it be something if we play .700 ball the rest of the way and still miss the playoffs? It is looking more and more possible every day.
And still no one yet to join me in my season long belief that Seattle is for real? At this point, we might be better off pulling for them and throwing some bad mojo at the Angels. Taking the division, which was a long shot all year, may actually be the only way we end up playing in October. I am just going to enjoy each game I get to watch for what it is and enjoy what is left of this baseball season, because playing well and being the odd team out is a real possibility, and I'd have to say an early struggling offense, and a few injuries will be to blame.
A two-seam fastball is gripped with the fingers along the seams. It doesn't get as much lift as the four-seam fastball, which makes it drop more than the batter expects. That makes the batter tend to hit the ball downward for a ground ball. The difference in grip makes a two-seam fastball slightly slower than a four seamer.
A four-seam fastball is gripped with the fingers across the seams of the ball. Because the fastball is thrown with backspin, it gets some lift and won't drop as much as a smooth ball (or one with little spin) would. A four-seam fastball doesn't get enough lift to rise, but it may look as though it rises or "hops" to the batter. The movement is just enough to make the batter swing under the pitch for a fly ball or pop-up, or even to miss the ball completely.
They are not "one pitch." Again, if they were, everyone who could throw a good four seamer would be able to throw them, and they cannot. Mo's problem is that he has gotten away from his four seam fastball, and when he does, he struggles.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.