Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The second half of the Yankees' season breaks into three distinct parts. The first, completed on Thursday, was what I've been calling the "cupcake" portion of their schedule, 28 games against the weaker teams in the league including Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, and the roughly-.500 Blue Jays. The Yankees went 20-8 (.714) over that stretch to propel themselves into the playoff hunt. Tonight they begin the second leg of their second half, a stretch of 20 games in which 17 come against contending teams, and 14 come against Cleveland, Detroit, and Boston, the teams they are chasing in pursuit of a playoff spot.
With that in mind, here's a look at how the Yankees have performed against the cupcakes, and some thoughts about how that performance might translate against the contenders.
Offense: While the Yankees have risen to the challenge against the weaker teams in the American League, it still remains to be seen if they can continue their success against the contenders. One encouraging sign is that they didn't just defeat the cupcake teams, they destroyed them, averaging 7.64 runs per game over the last 28 games.
Studs:
Robinson Cano .419/.479/.743, 18 XBH
Jorge Posada .385/.505/.692
Hideki Matsui .342/.382/.694, 12 HR, 29 R
Bobby Abreu .350/.409/.612, 33 RBI
Melky Cabrera .368/.405/.604, 10 2B, 3 3B
Shelley Duncan .314/.385/.743 (5 HR in 39 PA)
Wilson Betemit 5 for 14 (HR, 6 RBI, 3 R, BB)
Wil Nieves 4 for 11 (4 2B, 4 RBI, 4 R, 4 K)
Counting stats listed for Cano, Matsui, and Abreu are team bests over the last 28 games.
Duds:
Andy Phillips .279/.309/.356
Miguel Cairo 1 for 8 (2B, 2 BB, 3 K, SB)
Jose Molina 2 for 11 (2B)
Johnny Damon hit .129/.333/.129 and was 1 for 2 on the bases through the first ten games after the break, then hit .371/.444/.532 and went 4 for 5 on the bases over the final 20. He played in nine of those first ten games, but only 15 of the last 20, and his hot-hitting began after his first game off of that stretch. Of course, that game was game one of the double header against Tampa Bay on July 21, so Damon didn't really get a day off as he played in the nightcap, but the obvious conclusion is that Damon is more productive when given regular rest, which is exactly how Joe Torre has been using him over the past three weeks.
One wonders if the presense of Wilson Betemit should prompt Torre to start giving Derek Jeter additional days off as well. Jeter hit .338/.377/.477 with four stolen bases in as many tries over the first 15 games of the cupcake schedule, but just .234/.345/.340 with one steal in two tries since then, picking up just three extra base hits in his last 60 plate appearances. Jeter played in all 28 cupcake games, starting 27 of them.
Alex Rodriguez hit .278/.412/.630 through and including the game in which he hit career home run number 499. He then endured an 0-for-19 slump (though he did walk six times, twice intentionally, and was once hit by a pitch). Since snapping that slump two games before hitting number 500, he's hit .348/.414/.522.
Rotation: Here's where I start to worry. The Yankees only received a quality start in half of the last 28 games. Of the four primary starters, Andy Pettitte was the only one not to have a disaster outing (more runs allowed than innings pitched). Indeed, per the stats below, Pettitte, not Chien-Ming Wang, has been the Yankee ace in the second half. Admittedly, Wang's fluky disaster outing against the Blue Jays on Wednesday soured his numbers considerably, but even before that game, Pettitte had a better ERA over six starts than Wang had over five (though Wang did lead Pettitte in WHIP).
Andy Pettite 6 GS, 4 QS, 3.29 ERA, 4-1, 8.69 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, HR, 1.49 WHIP
Chien-Ming Wang 6 GS, 4 QS, 5.66 ERA, 4-2, 4.89 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 0 HR, 1.57 WHIP
Roger Clemens 6 GS, 3 QS, 4.45 ERA, 2-2, 5.57 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, HR, 1.42 WHIP
Mike Mussina 5 GS, 3 QS, 4.76 ERA, 3-1, 5.72 K/9, 2.22 BB/9, 3 HR, 1.62 WHIP
Kei Igawa 3 GS, 0 QS, 5.74 ERA, 0-1, 10.34 K/9, 5.17 BB/9, 4 HR, 1.91 WHIP
Phil Hughes and Matt DeSalvo both made one start, neither did particularly well.
The x-factor here, of course, is Phil Hughes. Based on his one start after coming back off the DL, Hughes simply needs to build up his endurance, as he appeared to tire very quickly. If Hughes can start giving the Yankees quality starts out of the fifth spot in the rotation (something that spot failed to do in five tries over the last 28 games), it would not only help the Yankees' chances of winning every fifth day, but would also reduce the bullpen's workload, increasing the Yankees' chances of winning on days the other four starters take the ball.
Bullpen: The Yankee bullpen posted a 3.74 ERA over the last 28 games, but if you factor in unearned runs that number jumps to 4.55, which means this pen has been allowing a run every other inning. That's a problem. The good news is that, as with Cairo and Igawa above, some of the worst offenders have been shown the door.
The Good:
Mariano Rivera 11 G, 0.00 ERA, 6 SV, 12.75 K/9, 0 BB, 0 HR, 0.58 WHIP
Luis Vizcaino 16 G, 1.13 ERA, 4-0, 9.00 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, HR, 0.69 WHIP
The Bad:
Brian Bruney 11 G, 7 1/3 IP, 7.36 ERA, 6.14 K/9, 6.15 BB/9, 0 HR, 1.77 WHIP
Scott Proctor 7 G, 6 2/3 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.05 K/9, 6.75 BB/9, 4 HR, 2.70 WHIP
Jeff Karstens 2 G, 6 1/3 IP, 7.11 ERA, 4.26 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 1 HR, 1.74 WHIP
Kyle Farnsworth 11 G, 11 IP, 5.73 ERA, 6.55 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 4 HR, 1.64 WHIP
Farnsworth is still around, but at least he's being used in low leverage situations now, such as with his team down 11 runs as was the case on Wednesday when he threw just his seventh 1-2-3 inning of the season (in 48 tries). Karstens most recent failure came in the finale of the Toronto series, so I'm holding out hope that he'll be replaced on the roster in the very near future.
Conclusion: Great hitting, questionable pitching. That's not how you beat good teams. Beginning with the promotion of Shelley Duncan on July 21, the Yankees have upgraded their bench (replacing Kevin Thompson, Miguel Cario, Wil Nieves and Chris Basak with Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Jose Molina, and Jason Giambi), their rotation (with the return of Hughes), and their bullpen (mostly addition by subtraction thus far, though Joba Chamberlain looked extremely promising in his one appearance in Toronto). The latter two will have to result in significant improvement, however, if the Yankees want to stay in the playoff hunt over the next 20 games.
RETURN FOR RAMíREZ Reliever Edwar Ramírez could be called up again as early as Friday. Ramírez earned a save for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Thursday. Since the Yankees demoted him last month, he has allowed 1 earned run in 10 2/3 innings with 17 strikeouts.
I want him here and he will help, but I think maybe we expect too much. I believe he will need to develop another quality pitch so MLB batters don't sit on the changeup.
Just as Cashman took some favorite toys away from Joe in Cairo and Proctor, he needs to dump the scrubs out of the bullpen ASAP. Edwar at this stage of the game, is Joba without the 1st Round pedigree; such has been his complete domination of MiL hitters. Karstens still has upside, but he's coming back from a broken leg, and should probably be starting somewhere, to make sure his YoY innings increase continues, rather than sitting around waiting to be the sacrificial lamb every time a Yankee starter spits the bit (too often lately.)
Matchups for the weekend:
Philthy vs Carmona:
Moose vs Byrd:
Pettitte vs Westbrook:
We should win Sunday. If Phil or Moose can pitch well enough to keep the Tribe in check, then this series is winnable. Cleveland is a tough team- they've been shut down by some average pitchers or late, but have also beat some good ones.
Carmona has been lights out in the second half- not allowing more than 3 ER in any of his last 7 starts (and 11 of his last 12). He does give up some walks, so if the Yanks can force him to burn 100 pitches through 6, rather than 8 innings as he often goes, they have a shot.
essentially this is how hoffman pitches and at this stage, edwar throws about 3-4 mph on average with his fastball, though i would say hoffman has more consistent control and command with that pitch
Those pitchers's WHIPs are unseemly.
This might be the "hard" part of the schedule for the Yanks, but I wonder how hard it will be. Vs the Indians, the Yanks see one of their best starters (Carmona), a so-so starter (Byrd), and one who's been awful (Westbrook). Similar pattern with the O's - one of their best (Guthrie), a so-so (Cabrera), and one's who's been awful (Burres). With Detroit, the Yanks face Verlander, but also get to tee off on Durbin, Robertson, and Bonderman (8.50 ERA in 6 starts post ASB).
IMHO, what we've done here is roll the dice. We weren't going to make the playoffs with the pen we had, and veteran help (aka Gagne) was too expensive. So we're going to use Mo and Viz as anchors to a pen of unknown quantities with high potential. If Joba, Edwar and possibly Britton come up Aces and Kings -- this team might have what it takes to go all the way despite some shakiness in the rotation. If the kids come up as fives and eights, well then the Yanks likely miss the playoffs same as they would have with the original pen.
I expect we'll have trouble with Cleveland, esp. Carmona.
This might be cause for some alarm with our schedule ahead, and in the PS.
Read what SG says and voice your opinion.
And if it's true, any thoughts to why?
There are other very good hitters around the league who appear to be less effected by good pitching.
Is our approach wrong?
Is it something that can be corrected?
Pitchers with good stuff who throw strikes to the corners early in counts, accomplish two things that tend to foil the Yankees lineup:
1) They don't walk a lot of guys (Lower team OBP, fewer opportunities to score runs)
2) They don't get into a lot of hitters counts.
Perhaps, against better pitchers, the Yankees need to be more agressive early in counts, and not wait for the 2-0, 3-1 pitches that are never going to come.
Again, that's just a hypothesis, based solely on my observation of games. I haven't looked at any numbers to see if it holds water.
In re Yanks vs good starters, that's obviously too small of a sample. I do have a question, though: did we face any other "good" starters over that span? If so, how did we do against them?
It's more important your own pitchers bring their game "up" in these situations than hope to do well against the other pitchers.
The Yanks didn't lose against Detroit last year in the playoffs because they didn't hit well against good pitchers, they lost because their pitchers didn't pitch decently and gave up leads.
Also, having your hitters do well against the opponents' good pitchers is exactly as important as having your own pitchers pitch well when the other team's do. I'm pretty sure. ;-)
My suggestion is that Cashman make a deal through the waiver wire to get another arm, if a quality arm is avaiable.
I really thought that Cash should have tried to acquire Troy Percival. I heard he was available and he would have likely been much cheaper than Gagne.
Check his stats and his numbers have been on par with Gagne this year. Yes, he's old and an injury risk, but certainly no more of an injury risk than Gagne. That's a lost opportunity if you ask me.
Ack! No! I couldn't disagree more. The last thing the Yanks need to do against good pitchers is start swinging at the first pitch. Remember Game 6 of the '03 Serious and Games 5 and 6 of the '04 ALDS (among countless others)? That is exactly the kind of behavior that gets the Yanks into trouble.
21 et al - Take a look at that list of pitchers again:
Roy Halladay
Scott Kazmir
Mark Buehrle
Kelvim Escobar
Josh Beckett
John Lackey
Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Danny Haren
Daisuke Matsuzaka
They might face four of those guys one time each over the next 22 games (Escober, Lackey, Beckett and Dice-K) - so no worries here.
Note too that 4 of those 10 are lefties, whom the Yanks have trouble with in general, good pitcher or not. That gives me a little less confidence in the results, because it decreases the sample size even further.
I've taken issue with this issue before, but I want to point out, the most teams have less than a 50% Quality Start rate. 50% isn't tops in the league, but it is better than league average.
As a team, over the season, our QS % is well below 50% (51 in 114 games), so we actually are achieving better now than we have on average over the season (though I should point out that APril throws off the season stats a bit).
OH, and the Yanks have finally leapfrogged Detroit into 4th place overall in BP's Postseason Odds:
Red Sox - 99.08331
Angels - 79.93022
Indians - 70.65519
Yanks - 56.16766
Detroit - 46.29768
Seattle - 37.17508
(No other team has overall odds greater than 5.81113, which is the Twins' overall odds.)
He's not the answer, but he could be an answer.
Though I do agree that Wang concerns me as he hasn't looked dominant in a while in my opinion. He has been good enough to scrap through most days, but...
Here's a few more cupcake crumbs.
Over the last 30 days:
- Yanks team ERA of 4.43 is 8th in the AL.
- 9 AL teams gave up fewer runs.
- Only the White Sox surrendered more hits over that span.
- Yanks tied with Detroit for 11th/12th worst WHIP in AL.
However, Yanks pitchers managed to rack up 202 Ks during the cupcake stretch, tops in the league over the last 30 days.
The Yanks pitching shouldn't scare anybody at this point, but it's a serviceable arsenal of arms.
The way the Yanks have been hitting nobody in the league scares me.
Bring on the Wahoos, and let's keep rollin'!
6 innings for Phil, 2 innings for The Jobanator, 1 for Mo and 1 win for the Yanks ...
doh!
Told him it wasn't a big deal. Since Clemens' suspension is only 5 days, that only means that he'll have an extra day's rest. Even less of a deal, if he doesn't travel with the team. As for Torre, it only means he'll be managing from the runway instead of the dugout.
In other words, no big deal :)
This is all over and done with, of course, and I apologize for bringing it up again, but it's more a criticism of the system. I don't think the Yankees are being singled out here. It's just silly that the Jays get off with a couple of token (undisclosed) fines. If MLB wants this type of stuff to stop, you can't just punish the retaliators.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.