Great wrap up. Yesterday's lost still stings a little.

It stings a lot. Another golden opportunity to shave a game off of Boston's lead squandered.

But I guess optimistically, at least we didn't lose the game we got back the previous day.

Yeah, it hurt. Good wrap up. I keep hoping to cut it to 7 games, cut it then to 5, then 3 ...... so many chances this season.

Other wishes of mine: (in no special order)

1) Damon wakes up
2) Giambi's rehab takes a step backward
3) Phillips continues his solid play
4) Abreu somehow continues to find his form
5) Better run support for Andy and Roger....

3 My first two wishes would be

1) Damon goes on the DL
2) Giambi comes back slugging

or alternatively
2) Shelley Duncan gets a chance to DH.

Cliff, I've adjusted my expectations re: Cleveland and the WC, because the Red Sox are on the brink of a free fall.

I'm loving this new feature Cliff. Thank you (and Alex) once again.

5 On the brink? Maybe in the middle of one. At least that's the feeling on the street. With Manny slugging under .500 for the first time since his first season, and Papi's home run power seemingly sapped by the knee trouble, that lineup isn't quite as scary as it used to be. Add in pitching woes and this may yet be a race.

4 1a) Myers gets dropped, Edwar gets to stay and gets a real chance

But that is a wish wrapped in a dream wrapped in a prayer. It will never happen. A solution to the bullpen woes is sitting in the bullpen, but Torre won't use him. This is not a point in Joe's favor.

Just read this. I can't believe the Yanks can't top this offer, if its even real, which I doubt.

"Jul 19 - ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago is reporting a Milwaukee radio station had inside knowledge of a potential trade involving the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. The deal would send Reds OF Adam Dunn to Milwaukee in exchange for Brewers OF Tony Gwynn Jr. and a possible player to be named later or cash."

Echoing Shaun P, loving the series wrap.

Even after going 6-2 against Tampa and Toronto this week, the Yanks record in the East remains a rancid 14-19.

The Red Sox are 21-11 in division play.

Yanks need at least 3 of 4 this weekend to remain on course.

The Red Sox are scuffling versus the Central to the tune of 10-10 mediocrity this year, while the Yanks are enjoying 12-5 success with the last place Royals on deck.

Here's hoping the White Sox and Indians can accelerate Boston's descent in these next two series.

The next six days could bring a sea change in the AL East standings.

Let's go Yankees! Just keep taking care of business.

7 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/dunn-to-brewers.html

7 Even if they would (could) match - how would Dunn help? I've never understood the argument for him. He's another lefty bat with no defense - call him Giambi Light but with many more K's and fewer BB's.

8 I'm hoping for 2 of 4 - that's what makes yesterday especially painful for me. Good Moose just better show up tonight, and with the bats behind him. There's little doubt at least one game tomorrow is going to be ughg-ly.

6 Couldn't have said it better myself. Edwar is living proof that Joe needs to go. His minor league numbers are sick (I seriously can't remember ever seeing someone with numbers like that over a 2 year span as a reliever) and he does have "stuff" in that Hoffmanesque change.

He's pitched twice. Once, in his debut striking out the side on the middle of the order against the Twins. The second time, around a week later against the Angels where he was less sharp but got the win. Yes, he walked a couple and gave up a run. He was also one pitch and Chone Figgins away from getting out of it. And the hit was just a grounder up the middle. He has not been hit hard at all.

So what does Joe do? Not pitch him at all, even when there are some low to mid-leverage situations on hand. Then, in some tight games, he won't go to him because "he hasn't been there before" and Joe doesn't know what he has (then PeteAbe defends him which is maddening). Honestly, if I were a GM, his handling of Ramirez alone would have him on the chopping block, because its not reflective of bad bullpen management. Its reflective of an unflexible manager who is doing harm to the farm system and the prospects we have.

4 I think its obvious Shelly won't get a chance. I predict he'll toil in the minors this year, leave as a minor league free agent, end up with some smaller market team (I predict Oakland), get called up and prove himself to be a decent major league bat and passable 1B. Of course we had someone like that last year, actually we had two, in Andy Phillips and Carlos Pena. Pena never even got a shot. I wonder how he's doing this year?

I swear if the Yankees trade for someone like Dotel I will be livid. They have Ramirez, Britton, Henn and a bunch of other guys down in AA/AAA pitching well.

As for Dunn, another lefty? who only hits well against righties? and Ks a lot? Pass.

10 "how would Dunn help? I've never understood the argument for him."

You don't really believe that, do you? He would be a whopping upgrade over Damon at DH, and over Andy Phillips at 1B (despite Dunn's poor defense). You could semi-platoon him with Phillips at 1B, playing Andy aginst some LHP and bringing him in as a defensive replacement. I'll take that package if Dunn brings that juicy .900 OPS with him.

As for the no glove/many Ks/fewer walks -- that's what you're going to get with Shelley Duncan, whom I would also love to see called up.

13 "As for Dunn, another lefty? who only hits well against righties?"

Dunn's splits:

Career v. LHP: .238 .355 .478 .833
Career v. RHP: .251 .388 .535 .923

I'll take my chances with the guy whose career OPS v. LHP is "only" .800+.

10 If they were to use Dunn to replace Damon as the DH (and bench Damon), then hell yes he'd help. A lot. They just might get Giambi himself back soon after the deadline, however.

El Leche
Jeter
Abreu
MVP
Dunn
Jorgie
Matsui
Cano
Who cares?

That's exciting just to contemplate.

13 Duncan is at least a RH bat and he'd be better 14 against LHP. He should have already been up to be the DH against Kazmir.

15 That's the point - all reports say Giambi in three weeks.

16 For three weeks? Then as a platoon guy with Phillips?

That said, I could see how Dun would have helped for, oh, the last six weeks or so. But then, the team hadn't "earned" reinforcements.

14 But this year, Dunn is batting:

.217/.309/.375

against lefties. That's dare I say it, Damonesque. Duncan is a RH bat with some mild reverse splits, but still slugging very well against both lefties and righties.

18 A] You said you "never understood" the argument for Dunn, implying that you could not have seen the utility of adding him six weeks ago. If we are talking about adding him only to help for the next three weeks, then of course no.

B] In a platoon with Phillips, Dunn would get the lion's share of ABs, since there are far more RHPs.

C]. Reports or no, I don't for a minute believe that Giambi is coming back in three weeks, and even if he does, he will not come back at full speed right away. Just like with Sheff's injury last year, we'll be lucky to squeeze a few decent weeks out of Giambi.

D] Even if Giambi comes back and can play, there is no problem having both Dunn and Giambi. I would DH Giambi and play (suffer through) Dunn at 1B, with Andy as a defensive replacement. And yes, I would live with the Ks in exchange for the offense.

19 He got off to a horrible start. I'll take my chances with his career numbers over his numbers just this year, but you are correct that this could be a bad sign.

21 What are his trends? .309 OBP and .375 SLG are really bad. That's close to an automatic out.

22 Honestly don't know--I'm balancing career numbers (longterm) v. this season (short term). Even in the worst case scenario, platoon him and sit him against all of the starting LHP in the AL. How many are there? How many in the AL East?

20

a) If he was strictly a replacement while Giambi was hurt, then yes I could squint, see, and understand said argument.

b) True. But then there's that pesky defense thing. And even with a 127 OPS+, I'm not so sure his big SLG but just about average OBP (for the position) would mean a significant upgrade.

c) We'll see. But Mghdfxjk is back next month! WHat would happen then!?

d) And watch as the team flails against every LHP pitcher in the league? And that's to say nothing of completely lost late game matchups - as we saw yesterday.

23 The problem is that the team right now is much weaker against left handed pitching, whereas against righties we tend to do fine. I'd argue any move we make should be with the idea of improving our performance against lefties. What we really need is another right handed power threat.

You know I was just reading a bit of Buster Olney's book on the Yankee dynasty. I came across an interesting bit about Showalter. Buck was aware of the entire organization, when a young, unknown minor league pitcher got hurt and needed elbow surgery, Buck even wrote him a letter saying he had a future and it was with the Yankees. Name of said pitcher: Mariano Rivera.

Now juxtapose that with Joe's standard comments that we just got this guy up from the minors and we don't really know a lot about him. Wasn't there even one guy he didn't recognize?

I'm not saying Buck is the way to go, but seriously, that's sad.

Dunn doesn't look like a solution to me.

Hard as it is to advocate at this moment, give Damon a chance to turn it around. Lord knows Joe and Cash aren't going to bench or demote him anytime soon.

According to Morrissey in the NY Post, Damon is working harder than he's ever seen him work, taking extra batting practice every day, which indicates he is healthy enough to get his act together.

The booers have to give Damon a break pronto.

On the previous thread I compared Damon to a wild turkey hit by a car, but I'm not giving up on him yet.

BTW: Dunn has played 108 career games as a 1B. That averages 21 games a year. That doesn't suggest he'd be an even Giambi-esque 1B.

And an even more relevant set of splits:
as 1B: .217 .394 .483 .877 (376 PA)
as LF: .249 .375 .520 .895 (3196 PA)

So it looks like he even trend worse as a 1B - more patience but less power.

One problem with those splits - He's only played more than 33 Games as a 1B twice in his career )2002 and 2005). And he hasn't played 1B at all this year.

26 If only Buck had brought him in to face Doug Strange, he might still be managing the team. Of course, had that happened, the Yankees might not have won 4 WS...maybe they would have won 0 or maybe 6...either way, I think I'd take the 4 in the bank and not risk it.

24 Some good points. I usually discuss my ideal universe. In that magic place, Mientkiewicz would not be an issue because he would be released upon retruning, or thrown in as a spare part in a spare part trade.

I'm less cncerned about defense at 1B than others here. He manages to "play" 1B and LF in the NL, so I figure he can cope in the AL.

As for every LHP in the league--there just aren't that many. Late innings could be an issue, but then, in my magic universe, the team would carry a couple of bats (like Shelley Duncan and Andy Phillips) to counteract the late game lefty threat. Both Duncan and Dunn can be swapped into 1B or corner OF in a pinch. Phillips covers 2B and 3B.

This would require carrying at least one fewer pitcher (no problem), and dropping a position player--I would drop Cairo (it's my universe, I make the rules).

3 I think #5 and #4 are the most important. Obviously, we need more offense overall, and shouldn't waste any good starts (#5). And I think Abreu can have much more of an impact than any other offensive switch they could make (#4). If they went out and got Teixeira and Abreu went back to stinking up the joint, they'd be in the same spot they are now. The others I'm not so sure about. Giambi coming back may be a good thing if it actually pushes Damon onto the DL or otherwise into a reduced role. 50% of Giambi could out-produce Damon right now. I'd bet on getting better production out of Giambi before I'd bet on Damon waking up. As for Phillips, I wouldn't bet on him having a .750+ OPS by the end of the season. He already seems to be regressing to last year's form. Against Tampa and Toronto he hit .241/.267/.345 - i.e. below replacement value. It's a small sample, but it's much more like to continue than it is that he'll go back to a .800+ OPS.

11I agree with you. But, at this point I'm wondering if they're showcasing the bullpen arms as fodder for trades. There are already Proctor rumors. Maybe Torre's public confidence in Farnsworth is actually baiting the hook. Okay, that's probably wishful thinking. I wish Torre was just trying to pump up the 'pen for trade value. I could see dumping Proctor and Farnsworth for some offensive help and going with Edwar, Britton et. al.

26 In 1995 I thought Buck got a raw deal. And looking back, the only thing his team was missing was a HOFer at SS. Instead they played Tony Fernandez.

He wouldn't be a bad choice at all. But then I was too young to remember his quirks.

I am not a huge Dunn fan, but if can be acquired for a Tony Gwynn Jr. type and cash, you have to make that deal...even if you only use him to carry Miguel Cairo's bags to and from the plane.

30 All of my points are moot in the real world, because the roster is completely hamstrung by Damon, who right now can't hit, bats lefty, can't really play 1B, can't really play OF. So, he trumps Adam Dunn in every category!

30 Sorry to break the news but: Neither Cashman nor Teabag live in your ideal universe.

27 I meant to say Kevin Long has never seen Damon work so hard, as reported by Morrissey.

34 Fair enough!

Only the Yanks know the real story on Jason and DougOut, but if Dunn comes on, one of those 2, as well as Damon (or Melky) see nothing but pine. Since Giambi has a year left and JD 2, I can't see this happening.

When Giambi first went down, it MAY have been a good idea. But the ship has sailed (unless Giambi is truly out for the year).

And if Giambi does come back, his bat will be rusty. But his batting eye should be fine. Even at his worst in 2004, he was walking a ton, and I believe pitchers will still be careful with him. Rusty of not, he would bw a big improvement at DH over JD. Unfortunately, JD will be in CF and Melkman will ride the pine.

34 Ahem, its "mute" point ;).

32 I was too young too, but to be fair to Buck its hard to predict at that point Rivera would turn out to be as good as he is. Remember in 1997 when everyone wanted Joe's head for installing him as closer? And that HR against Cleveland?

Ah, for the days when Joe would stick a rookie in and let him develop. Sigh.

Apologies to all, I know I'm ranting, but it sort of feels like arguing about evolution with a creationist. You make all these salient, real world points and they say, "G-d did it." Except in this case, Joe says, "veteran presence."

A-Rod and wifeypoo are going to be at FAO Schwarz at noon today, reading from his children's book, signing autographs etc.

Hopefully this event will be as benign as it sounds.

26 Only one fly in that ointment -- Buck was also the guy who lost game 5 to the M's in '95 while letting Cone throw way too many pitches and then using crappy relief while said youngster sat on the bench as a spectator. (Very Torre-esque.) Next year, Torre would actually give the young phenom some rope, and so began the career of the best closer in history.

So...Showalter might have sent nice notes, but he let the guy who might have gotten him to the Series in '95 just sit and collect dust on the bench just as Edwar is being wasted now.

39 You are right that you can't blame Showalter for not knowing what he had. There were, however, some signs. In spite of being very inconsistent as a starter, Mo did pretty well once converted to a reliever. Also, Mo was sensational picking up the win in the dramatic GAME 2 victory. He was probably as big a hero in that game as Leyrtiz.

I don't think anyone was calling for Joe's head when he installed Mo as the closer in 1997. In fact, I think most people favored Mo over the Zantac Kid.

40 Or hopefully someone will ask "How can I get my wife to go to a strip club and get lap dances with me!?"

41 See 39. And while Mo had solid numbers down the stretch, he was raised as a starter, including a few starts earlier that year. If I remember correctly, there was some concern about whether his arm could handle the constant work.

32 Buck was a great manager. But, he was ill suited for the Yankees in 1996. His my-way-or-the-highway, rigorous fundamentals approach works great with younger players. But for the Yankees, who typically have older veterans who produce and don't need to be micro-managed, this doesn't work too well. It worked pretty well at the time because the team was doing so poorly before he came along that they needed a bright light shining on their flaws, and Buck gave them that.

When he took over in 1992, the Yankees were an average of 29 years old, with no position players older than 32 and no pitchers older than 35. And they had a lot of home-grown guys. By 1995, they were a little older and had some veterans who had been around the block with other teams - Wade Boggs, Paul O'Neill, Darryl Strawberry, David Cone, John Wetteland, Jimmy Key. Then they added some more before 1996 - Tim Raines, Joe Girardi, Tino Martinez, Mariano Duncan, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Nelson and Dwight Gooden. (Sorry, but they were missing a lot more than a HOF SS) So, perhaps he wasn't the best manager for that kind of team. Obviously Joe Torre was the right choice, although I'll admit I was incredulous at the time.

Then, of course, Buck be a terrible choice for this team next year, since they're practically all veterans with an average age of more like 31.

Personally, I think Buck should be a GM - the Yankees GM, even. He's absolutely amazing at player development and evaluation.

I think this is a great new feature too, and full credit goes to Cliff. It's his idea and it clearly displays his fine analytical gifts.

42 There was ALOT of questioning whether Mo was suited for the role and whether the Yankees made a mistake. I know i didn't think so (indeed he always struck me as much better than the Zantac Kid - nice) but there were a vocal set of fans that thought so or else the media amplified that contingent.

Nice to know that we can now always go back and check the ole Banter.

41 Actually, Buck did use Mo in Game 5, but it was one batter too late. Rivera struck out Mike Blowers to close out the 8th inning, but then relented to Jack McDowell (who actually did well to pitch out of his inherited 1-2 situation).

So, Buck did trust Mo...he just did it too late, probably because he really trusted Cone. I have no problem with that approach. Cone was the ace and Buck went with him. Once that plan failed, however, Buck went right to Mo ...with the season on the line! He didn't waste time with any Wetteland or anyone else. Showalter should be commended for that move.

42 Calling for his head is exaggerating, agreed. I do recall some rumblings that Mo wasn't the right guy though.

41 Its a very different situation. Mo at that time was a converted (and mediocre starter) who had some pretty bad numbers in the minors, and decent numbers in '95. Once he was called up, he was so so. So its tougher to fault Buck for not going to that guy in the playoffs. He did pitch 19 games for them though between starting and relief.

Cone on the other hand wasn't just a veteran presence, he was one of the best pitchers in the league down the stretch run. That's very different from continually pitching Villone, Myers and Kyle over and over again and not giving Edwar a shot. I'm not advocating they install him as the new closer and use Mo as a setup man.

46 I don't have the same memory...my (what i think is vivid) recollection was that once the WS after glow faded and sentimentality was cast aside, the move to Mariano was met with, at most, only mild resistance. Now, when McGwire took Mo deep on opening day (I think), the questions started to pop up, but they were quickly dispelled.

8 "Here's hoping the White Sox and Indians can accelerate Boston's descent in these next two series."

Just got off the phone with a sales rep I work with up in our Boston office - a former New Yorker, but a Sox fan none the less - straight outta Beantown I'm telling you, the fear & stress IS starting to seep into the Charles River! (insert evil laugh here!).

She told me a joke too:

"What comes after 7?"
"Six...if you're a Sox fan"

HAHAHAAAAAAA!!!

47 41 Mo pitched 3.1 innings in game 2 (Oct. 4) and 1.1 in game 3 (Oct. 6). How much did he have in the tank for game 5 (Oct. 8) after going .2 innings with a walk (IBB) and a hit?

Ah, memories...

39 sorry if i'm missing the sarcasm, but it is in fact "moot".

"mute" = (n) Expressed without speech; unspoken -or- (n) One who is incapable of speech -or- (v) To soften or muffle the sound of.

"moot" = (n) A hypothetical case argued by law students as an exercise -or- (v) To discuss or debate -or- (adj) Of no practical importance; irrelevant.

52 Yes its sarcasm.

52 Ya gotta go back a few threads and read one of my typical, poorly proofread comments.

41 Actually, Torre did almost the same thing in '96. In Game 3 of the series he left Cone in to finish the 6th even though he loaded the bases by allowing a single and issuing three walks, including walking in a run. Cone got McGriff and Lopez to pop out and then Torre brought in Mo in the 7th. If Cone had instead given up a double or some such, the Braves might have won that game to make it a 3-0, slam dunk series, and we might not be talking about Joe Torre at all today.

Cone blew it in '95 and come out on top in '96. I can't blame or applaud either manager for that.

51 Also, Edgar was up with 1-2 (after the IW to Griffey). We didn't know it then, but Edgar was kryptonite to Mariano. Amazingly, he had a career OPS of 1.888 in 20 PAs against Mo. That alone should get Martinez into the Hall of Fame.

44 I'm not sure I can agree. The 1994 team could have easily won it all. The 1995 team needed Jeter and, okay, a bit more pitching. They get that in 1996.

As for the difference between 1995 and 1996 -

1995 - 1996
Fernandez Girardi
Kelly < Duncan
Donnie = Tino (really - but they were clearly headed in opposite directions)
Tartabull + Polonia < Raines + Fielder (part-time roles)

Overall, not a big difference between the teams. Even the swap out of McDowell and Hitchcock for Rogers and Key wasn't a huge difference. If anything, the big difference on the pitching side was adding Nelson and a full season of Mo.

So looking at the two teams, the biggest improvements to the 1995 team in 1996 were Jeter, Nelson, and Mo with maybe Fielder swapping out for Sierra down the stretch and in the post-season.

I can't see how the manager gets credit for any of that.

55 Nope...which is the same reason I think the Graddy Little situation was a pure example of scape goating. When you have your ace on the mound (not to mention one as good as Pedro), I have problem with a manager who chooses to live and die with him.

50 heh... and then her head started spinning, and she broke out in hives that spell "help me."

58 Here here.

The discussion has veered away from Dunn, but I'd like to repeat these numbers I posted yesterday:

Dunn versus just right-handed pitchers:

.280/.387/.640/1.027, 22 HR in 211 AB

Why don't we want to see that on the Yankees now? Because Giambi might be back soon? Giambi wasn't hitting even before the injury: .252/.400/.398 vs RHP, and a shocking (maybe small sample influenced?) .283/.327/.522 vs LHP.

As for Giambi's return, color me skeptical. Early August seems a lot earlier than anything that was said by knowledgeable folks when he was first hurt. And IIRC, guys who come back from a torn plantar fascia don't hit very well right away.

I'm speculating here, but if one was seeking a big bat via trade, what's the best way to manipulate the market your way? Why, let it be known that your currently injured big bat is coming back soon, and you don't really need to make the deal.

57 Whoops not sure what happened to my little chart there - it should read:

1995 - 1996
Fernandez less than Jeter
Stanley greater than Girardi
Kelly less than Duncan
Donnie = Tino (really - but they were clearly headed in opposite directions)
Tartabull + Polonia < Raines + Fielder (part-time roles)

61 Agreed, he mashes righties, but he's anemic against lefties this year, he's Damonackian ;). I'm also not convinced he can play 1B all that well, which while I know is not that important, Joe doesn't. So he'll bungle a throw or two and end up in the Kevin Thompson/Edwar Ramirez memorial section.

61 Where does he play? 1B? He has played 0 games there this year and 2 games there last year.

Now, you et al are right - If Giambi isn't coming back, then Dunn makes sense as a DH. But if he IS back, then they have three players they'd feel obliged to carry (Damon, Giambi, Dunn) who are LH and offer no redeeming defensive qualities. Add in Nieves the Wunderkind and Cairo the Unstoppable, and that friend is team almost useless against LHP (Sanatana, Lester, Okajima, Sabathia).

64 If Giambi comes back AND Dunn is incapable of playing 1B, put Giambi at 1B and grit your teeth. The offense will pay off over the lack of defense.

64 Since Dunn can "play" some LF, he gives them, perversely, some additional roster flexibility. Thus, when Matsui or Abreu DHs, you can put Dunn in the corner rather than Damon.

44 That's about right. Buck was the hardest working man in show biz, seemingly putting in 30-hour days on a consistent basis, nine or ten days a week. He was an extreme micro-manager - no detail was too small for him to have a rule about. This had its benefits, and was one of the major factors in turning the Yankees from a bad team into a winning one. (Obviously the player moves were the most important factor, but Buck handled the operational end, and handled it extremely well.)

However, he also came across as autocratic and fastidious, alienating much of the press and more than a few veteran players. I agree, I don't think he'd be well suited for this particular batch of players. That's also why I question whether Girardi would be a good choice for next manager - with the Marlins, he seemed to have much the same managerial style.

One other Dunn point I brought up before - if the Yanks don't re-sign him, they will get two draft picks, a first rounder and a supplemental first rounder. That alone might be worth getting Dunn.

63 64 You DH him, and bench and/or DL Damon if needed. Cashman put his foot down once before (Cano and Wang), he needs to do it again.

63 One thing Joe won't do is bench a name/big salary guy acquired by trade. Unknown "rookie", sure. But Adam Dunn is not that.

64 And yes, it does not necessarily address a weakness against LHP. Lefty relievers don't worry me - in the East, Okajima is really the only scary one. As for starters, as best I can tell, the Yanks will face these lefties:

Game 2 Sat 7/21 vs TB (JP Howell)
7/24 vs KC (Odalis Perez)
7/26 vs KC (De La Rosa)
7/31 vs CHI (Danks)
8/3 vs KC (Perez again)
8/5 vs KC (De La Rosa again)
8/11 vs CLE (Cliff Lee)
8/17 vs DET (Nate Robertson)
8/18 vs DET (Andrew Miller)
8/24 vs DET (Miller again)
9/2 vs TB (Howell again)
9/3 vs SEA (Horacio Ramirez)
9/5 vs SEA (Washburn)
9/19 vs BAL (Bedard)
9/25 vs TB (Howell once more)
9/29 vs BAL (Bedard again)

The only "scary" lefties on that list are Miller and Bedard. That's only 16 games, out of 68 left, so about a fifth of the games left.

I think given all the benefits (Dunn vs RHP, draft picks if the Yanks don't re-sign him, Farnsworth would almost certainly be gone in the deal), getting Dunn is a no-brainer.

68 For context, it would be interesting to see the lefties that have already beaten the Yankees. I have a feeling there will be a lot more names like the list above than Santannas and Buerhles, etc. That's what makes things more urgent, I think. You simply can't lose to bad lefties because you don't have enough righty pop. Good lefties are going to beat you regardless, but bad lefties should be fodder for right handed hitting lineups.

57 Well, first Tartabull went to Oakland and Polonia went to Atlanta in mid-1995. So, if you want to talk about how close the 1995 squad was to a championship, they're not really in the discussion. Instead, you'd have to talk about Sierra (who was a below average player for the Yanks in 95 and so bad in 96 that they traded him to Texas) and either Dion James (whose career was over in 1996) or Gerald Williams (who also played so badly in 96 that he got traded). So, if you compare that group to Fielder & Raines, it's no contest. You can't use Fernandez to compare to anyone because the whole thesis is that the only difference was that he was removed for Jeter. Actually, they probably would have done better sticking with Mike Stanley, who was better offensively than Girardi. So, the offense might look more like this:

Stanley > Girardi
Kelly < Duncan
95 Playoffs Donnie = Tino
Sierra/James/G.Williams < Fielder/Raines

That's close, but the pitching is no contest. McDowell was clearly fading in 95, with a 5+ ERA in 4 out 6 months. He gave up 7 runs in 7 innings during the 95 playoffs and he never posted a sub-5 ERA the rest of his career.

And it was Kamieniecki, not Hitchcock who was a starter for the 95 playoff squad. I'll swap you Kamieniecki for Rogers, but there's no way that McDowell holds a candle to Key, who gave up only 1 run in 96WS Game 6 to finish the Braves.

And all the relievers, not just Nelson, were clearly in the favor of the 96 team:

Wickman/Hitchcock/Howe < Nelson/Lloyd/Weathers

So, adding Jeter was clearly the biggest difference, but not remotely the only difference. Swapping Jeter for Fernandez in the 95 playoffs would not necessarily have meant they would have won the series that year.

Look at Dunn's home/away splits. Unless we plan to play a whole lot of games at Great American, it looks to me like we'd be getting a .777 OPS guy. Very lucky, no doubt, but not exactly the solution to the Bombers' problems.

53 oops >_<

71 The home/road splits don't bother me too much, because there's no way he's only destroying RHP to the tune of 1.027 OPS at home. He has to be hitting on the road too. And its not like Yankee Stadium isn't made for lefty hitters. =)

You can see what Dunn hits in certain stadiums here: http://tinyurl.com/2p57yz. I'm not sure what to make of it, because he has so few ABs in most of those.

"Tim (DC): Will - could you give your opinion on Giambi? Will he really be back in early August?

SportsNation Will Carroll: I'm doubtful, especially of early August. Mid-to-late August? That's possible, though he's going to have to have everything go right."

I promise, nothing else Dunn-related. But I had to pass this along. I just hope no one in the Reds front office is paying attention. =)

70 "So, adding Jeter was clearly the biggest difference, but not remotely the only difference. Swapping Jeter for Fernandez in the 95 playoffs would not necessarily have meant they would have won the series that year. "

Afterall that - you get to my point!? :)

I also add in Mo (but now Nelson - Wickman was about equivalent). The rest is a bit of a push and pull in different directions. That is, with 1996 versions of Jeter and Mo, the 1995 Yanks may have just turned out okay.

Otherwise, I was mostly using the BR team pages since in order to get to the playoffs you first have to win during the regular season. And across the 95 season, McDowell was their best pitcher (117 ERA+) and Hitchcock (92 ERA+) threw almost twice as many innings as Kamieniecki. And the average ERA+ of those two was about equal (104.5 ERA+) to the 96 average of Key and Rogers (108 each).

As for the bullpen - same deal.

It's an interesting discussion, especially because of the ramifications of 1995 on history. Buck would probably have won a few rings. But it's hard to imagine him still the manager. He's had a certain way of wearing out his welcome, and probably too quickly. By contrast, Joe has been too likeable for too long.

68 Good stuff. The draft picks almost just brought me around on Dunn - especially if the price is only TG Jr. and cash. Flip a coin?

As for the LHP though, don't forget the playoffs - that could include Santana or Washburn or Lackey or Miller/Robertson. And scary is out the window here, because the Yankees against all LHP this year are truly scary (.268 .345 .392). That's like a lineup full of Melkys and Dunn is actually worse than that.

You're making a good argument, and including 74. But given the hit to the offense against LHP (season and playoffs), the effect on the defense (Damon or Dunn out at 1B), and the inability of the manager to use his bench appropriately (with a Phillips and Duncan against LHP), it just seems like a toss-up to me.

76 Lackey is a right hander, but your point about the others is valid. Also, don't forget C.C. Sabathia and Kenny Rogers.

76 Yeah, I know, and those things all make tons of sense to me. But looking past this season, being rid of Farnsworth and those two draft picks make it seem worthwhile. And I hate to say this, but if A-Rod were to leave, having Dunn around would be a decent start to making up for the lost offense - and certainly a better start than anything available on the free agent market (ie, Jones and Hunter).

78 The draft picks are a good point, I hadn't considered that. Still, I'd rather they make a play for a decent RH power bat, or better yet just bring up Shelly. No way he can hit worse than Damon from the DH spot. The only player we have that could is Nieves.

77 Thanks. You know I meant CC too. Meanwhile - absolutely on Rogers. Even without Dunn, the Tigers could be disgusting especially in a playoff series with Verlander and even Miller out of the pen.

Another good point on free agency but with Dunn, and (gasp) no A-Rod, they'd have an even worse lineup imbalance. And still no big RH bats besides Andruw or Dye.

This just in from WFAN and Pete Abe:

"The Yankees plan to purchase the contract of DH Shelley Duncan today. No official word yet on who is being sent down."

I'm guessing Kevin Thompson will be sent down. Whether Torre uses Duncan in a reasonable manner remains to be seen.

Let me be the first to welcome the 2007 version of Shane Spencer (The Home Run Dispenser) to the big leagues!

78 Also, I'd trade Farnsworth as a salary dump for a couple of position prospects. We don't need the additional reliever with the guys we have in the minors pitching well, we need to trim a pitcher or two anyways and that will in some roster/payroll flexibility, force Joe to start using some of the rookies and possibly net us a decent position prospect.

79 It's absurd they haven't already. And I'm not sure it will ever happen.

81 Woah! Cash is reading the Banter!

Who is being taken off the 40-man?

81 Uh, check that 83.

Thank God. My guess is it has to be Thompson since they need all the pitchers for the DH tomorrow. Then they'll option Edwar for DeSalvo after Game 1.

84 The Banter. And WasWatching. And RLYW. and RiverAveBlues. And NoMaas. And my lowly blog. This is a long time coming.

81 I would have normally guessed a BP arm (Edwar) but with the doubleheader tomorrow looming, and being pitched by two of the three stooges, you're probably right. Guess Damon becomes the 4th OF...

Still a move has to be made in regards to the 40 man I would think. That could be interesting, especially with Hughes and Karstens slated to come off the 60-day.

87 I would think Reese and Bean are expendable. Could it be possible to take Igawa off it after his start on Saturday? Replace him on the 25 man with DeSalvo and then the 60 man so he can finish the year in the minors. I'm sure he would pass through waivers. Is that an option or a pipe dream.

88 Ooooo good idea. I'd definitely do that. If some team wants to claim him, aren't they on the hook for his salary? Fine by me.

I like Dunn and I think he's a great ball player, but we can't forget Giambi. If he comes back healthy in August, you need his lefty bat and high OBP in the lineup. You need to DH him. You need to keep Andy at first or bring up Duncan if Phillips regresses, and that means you need to DL Damon.

84 As for the 40-man, I too am guessing Reese or Bean - they'll pass through waivers.

88 Sorry I can't see that. Cashman has yet to call He-who-shall-not-be-named a failure. In four years he might be willing to give up on Igawa. Plus, that means 30 million flushed (bid and this year).

91 What are the waiver rules? I thought a team that claims him is on the hook for the remainder of his contract, right?

92 Yeah, but you would be crazy to claim him at this point. He has four more years after this. Its a very unfortunate situation (hanging head in shame).

85 I would send down Edwar for Duncan, only because it is obvious that Torre will never use Edwar, so he's just taking up a roster spot. But, as you point out, someone else has to go for the DH on Saturday, to make room for DeSalvo.

Wouldn't it make sense to option Igawa down after he pitches the first game, to make room for DeSalvo in game two? Then use DeSalvo to bridge until Igawa is eligible to return, or until Hughes is ready.

86 if the corresponding move is to put JD on the DL, then we'll know they're reading banter ...

94 As for the 40 man roster, there are plenty of candidates: Bean, Basak, Reese, and even Beam.

96 And according to the list on the sidebar, also Jeff Kennard.

95 Right! The best obviously would be to displace Damon with Duncan and then Igawa with DeSalvo. Then within two weeks, Hughes for DeSalvo and worry about Damon later (if he can play and Duncan can hit, poor Thompson gets the axe).

94 Thats exactly what I was thinking when they announced Igawa would pitch the first game. It makes too much sense. Then they will still have the extra bullpen arms in case the games get crazy. Regardless of the commitment to Igawa he belongs in the minors right now and I think the Yankees actually realize that. It really wouldn't hurt to have DeSalvo start a game or two until Hughes gets here. Better than Igawa.

97 Yeah, I was looking at the list and so didn't know his name that I was afraid he was some super-prospect that I should know about, so I didn't list him.

BTW, it was awfully nice of the Yankees to let Shelley set the team AAA HR record--though I'm guessing that's one of those records you don't really want to hold (see Durham, Bull).

101 Yeah I commented on this yesterday, as in why is the team record under 30 HRs. I'm guessing because anyone who hits 25+ HRs in AAA tends to get called up at some point.

sooo ... who wants to bet whether duncan gets a start before the 24th (against perez, the 1st lefty starter the yanks will face)?

i'll say joey joe joe shabbadoo doesn't want to replace damon's veterany grit and gumption before then ...

over/under on abs before then? i'll say 2

100 Kennard is a 26 year old at AA (pitching well in relief), who's got decent minor league numbers (3.02 ERA, 7.73 K/9, 1.33 WHIP) but is nothing near a prospect.

103 Lol, you mean he's not a LIDR for Andy Phillips?

one other thing ... according to petey, JD says he's healthy now (which i'm not sure i believe, frankly) ... so i guess the DL isn't going to be in play

103 Interestingly, Duncan has a higher OPS against righties (.972) than lefties (.913) at AAA this season.

Both numbers, it should be noted, are almost double the OPS of Johnny Damon in July...

106 Doesn't matter a lick what JD says. The team can DL him if they want. JD can claim he's so healthy he now has the power to heal the sick with his touch and they can still DL him.

Kennard is only 26 and has actually pitched well for Trenton this year (51 IP 16 ER 45 K 17 BB). Beam is 27 and has also pitched ok for The Office after being hurt (27 IP 11 ER 27 K 8 BB).

Bean has already passed through once, I think. No one wants him. Reese too (29 yo and .709 OPS in AAA).

98 That works too. But instead of JD to the DL (if they were gonna they would have already), Thompson today then Igawa after Game 1 might make sense too.

92 I don't know. But I do know that the posting fee isn't part of his contract. And I could actually see another team taking a shot on him for 4 years @ 20 million.

Well at least we know Cashman is thinking along the right lines (i.e. bring up what you have, see what you got, then make appropriate decisions). The problem is that Joe will just bury him, especially if he so much as has a 3K game at the start. I mean, Edwar is languishing for gasp giving up one run!

109 But if he's claimed we can make a trade or pull him back. What's the risk? He gets claimed, we pull back and DFA Bean.

108 except you can't unilaterally DL players who claim they're healthy without repercussion, both the union and the commissioners office would take action against it

103 My guess is they wouldn't be calling him up if Joe didn't agree to play him, at least tomorrow. But then I ask: Why today?

These are the sorts of things where I have to imagine the GM and manager collaborate.

92 What 91 meant is the $27mn posting fee to Igawa was a one-shot sunk cost that can't be recouped.

Putting Igawa through waivers would be interesting, but probably not likely. Still, I think there might be a possible way out. While a bust in the majors, Igawa was a very good pitcher in Japan. There is no reason the Yankees can't make a "trade" with a Japanese team, even it simply means selling Igawa's rights to Japan. I'm sure all parties could work out an arrangement in which the Yankees and a Japanese team split the $4mn owed to Igawa each season (or what ever proportion is in line with what he would have made in Japan).

111 It sends a signal that they've given up on him. And I don't think they have. Indeed, if it's Cashman it will be another four years before he even admits the possibility.

113 You mean like when they called up Ramirez?

115 I dunno, to me it says they think he needs more work in the minors and with Karstens, Rasner and Hughes coming off the DL soon they are higher on the depth chart. The guy's gotten his shot at the ML level this year and frankly he's sucked. If Manny can be placed on waivers, I think Quest can deal with it. If he can't he doesn't have the right makeup anyways.

108 But I thought that, in theory, the team had to 'prove' a player was injured, so that the DL isn't used essentially to increase roster size. Now, in reality the DL does seem like a rubber stamp, but if Damon goes around claiming that he's perfectly healthy, the league could (I think) prevent the Yankees from DLing him without some sort ofofficial medical opinion.

114 I really think that's all a pipe dream. Maybe after next year, but given the low cost from this point forward there's no use giving up on him now.

68 This has become a common argument regarding a lot of players - let him walk and take the two draft picks! There are a couple of problems with that scenario, though.

First, you only get the picks if you offer arbitration and the player declines - and yo shouldn't offer arbitration unless you're willing to have the player accept it. It would be foolish to offer arbitration to a player you don't want, counting on the draft picks.

Second, I think people really overestimate the value of those picks. "First-round pick" isn't quite true; it's in the bottom half of the first round or the top half of the second round, depending on who signs him.

So the best the Yankees could get would be picks #16 and 31. Those are picks that can yield good prospects but, in real life, rarely do.

I looked at those two picks from 1990-99, figuring that we know how good all those guys are. Out of those 20 picks, there were three good major leaguers: Shawn Green, Lance Berkman and Jarrod Washburn. Then there are Jason Jennings and Kip Wells - major leaguers, but nothing to get excited about. (I don't think the original proposition was: let him walk and we can get Kip Wells!) After that, crap - ranging from Brian Williams down to the sublimely named Sherard Clinkscales.

So, basically, having those two picks gives you a 15% chance of getting Jarrod Washburn or better, a 25% chance of getting Jason Jennings or better, a 75% of getting nothing remotely useful.

108 Damon can file a grievance. I don't know whether he'd have to prove he's not injured or the Yankees would have to prove he is.

118 As usual, someone 112 beat me to it.

121 Thinking about it more, "team player" and foemer (?) "idiot" Damon first screwed the team by playing through injuries, and now screws them again by announcing that he's healthy (as his play declines even more).

116 Right, I thought of that. The bullpen's a bit different especially because there haven't been many recent huge blowout losses (where Edwar could get his work in for Joe's comfort)

I think by this point even Joe has to realize that Damon is a sinkhole at DH, even if just a little bit. That doesn't mean Duncan will start 10 games in the next two weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him start tomorrow and two or three times plus maybe a PH spot here or there. That's a whole 20 AB for Joe to judge his BFoG!

Still I wonder if he'll be in the lineup tonight and tomorrow - thus the call today. That's a whole 8 ABs!

112 121 122 Fair enough, I hadn't realized that. Thanks!

120 I want Clinkscales, where is he now? that is the greatest name ever.

121 That's OK, I still came in after you.

124 Well I'm going tonight, I'd love to be there for Spencer 2.0s ML debut!

Everything I've heard suggests players are now routinely offered arbitration on the knowledge that they'll decline. Gordon is one recent example.

125 I agree. Best name since Wonderful Terrific Monds III.

And Kennedy was drafted 21st while Jobe was drafted 41st. Quality players often fall because the bonus is expected to be too rich for some clubs.

120 I disagree with your assessment on the value of late first round picks. You might have a point for most teams, but with so many top players dropping deep into the draft on signability concerns (just like Porcello and Brackman), a 16-30 pick is now much more valuable than in the past.

BTW: If anyone's in CT, Joba and Horne are pitching in a double header tonight in New Britain.

128 I don't think it's routine, and a lot of the time the teams are willing for the player to come back if that's what happens. Sometimes teams do get screwed on it - I know the Phillies really didn't want Placido Polanco back again. It's very much like those waiver claims - you run the risk of ending up with Jose Canseco.

In this case, a player can say he's going to decline - he can say he'd rather die than play another game for that team - then look at his first few offers and change his mind.

Duncan will probably be like a Russell Branyan type. A ton of strikeouts mixed in with some much needed pop. Maybe he'll catch lightning in a bottle. But, he's only a stop-gap until Giambi comes back.

As far as callups go, I'd love to see Brett Garnder called up. I think this guy could be the leadoff hitter of the future. He's got crazy speed and good .OBP. Granted, he's got zero pop, but his stats are comparable to the much more hyped Jacoby Ellsbury.

I'm surprised more people don't give Gardner any love on these threads. He's only 23. He could at least fill a gap as a pinch-runner in the late innings.

128 Is that so? Not having to give up a draft pick as a pre-requisite of signing a player could enhance his value on the open market. In certain situations where a team and long-time player are hopeful of working out an arrangement, that is likely to occur, but why would a player lessen his appeal by allowing the arbitration tag to be placed upon him?

Yes, players do fall. There are players available who turn out to be good, but that's looking backwards. It's also taking that whole group of picks as a whole and making the assumption that you'll get one of the few that works out.

But the fact remains that any given pick at that level stands a poor chance of amounting to anything.

134 Of course I'd rather have Giambi (a healthy one) at DH than Duncan, and not because of veteran presence, but because Giambi will generally post an OBP>400 with a lot of power.

Duncan could be a decent DH/1B type, and a good PH off the bench. Remember when we had a bench of Darryl Strawberry and Cecil Fielder?

134 I do like Gardner a lot, but I like Melky better and I think what this team needs is a righty power threat that isn't named Hobbs.

134 Gardner has shown me a lot this year. And you're right - he's almost exactly comparable to Ellsbury and at the same age having played in the same leagues. I think the only difference on hype was that Ellsbury proved himself in AA last year, so Gardner was about a half year behind. Still, Gardner steals bases at a higher percentage.

That all said, I don't see a place for Gardner right now unless Melky gets traded. Neither have enough pop to play a corner (though Melky might next year) and right now Melky is the better CF. As a PR absolutely, but then you stunt his development with Torre never using him. For instance, how many times has he used Thompson this year?

Still, I'm interested to see how the rest of the year plays out for Gardner and how "experts" rate him in the off-season.

132 Damn, a little too far for me to get there by 5:30 (maybe 1:45 from where I work, though only 1:30 from my house).
It was awesome when the Yanks' AA team was the Navigators. {sigh}

135 There's nothing wrong with going to arbitration, no "label" that's going to hurt a player. A player coming off a subpar year might believe he can get a much better contract a year from now (Bobby Abreu). Or someone might decide they'll get a pretty good salary in arbitration and take the bird in the hand. Hell, they might just decide they like New York after all.

120 130 That's a very important thing to consider. Especially since next year's draft class is supposed to be deeper than this year's.

133 The thing is, Dunn has dropped many hints about wanting to play in Texas (his home state), so I doubt he'd except the arbitration offer. Its one thing for a 36-year-old middle reliever to change his mind. But a 27-year-old with his power in next year's free agent market? He'd be nuts to take arbitration. He could potentially be leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table.

134 Given that Torre consistently never uses the last guy(s) on the bench, I think bringing up Gardner would be a waste of time right now. Look at Kevin Thompson - he's only played against LHP when they want to protect Abreu. The way Torre manages, a 5th OF without pop while there's already a great defender in CF would be useless.

Glad to see Duncan is finally being called up. I hope he gets to play tonight, and Damon's ass is nailed to the bench. Bolted would be better.

I can't wait to see who gets dropped from the 40-man - they'll need another spot for Hughes soon too.

135 I think it's cases where the player expects to step up in value - free agency for the first time (A.Jones, Hunter, Teixeira) or in roles like setup to closer (Gordon). Those I have no doubt that agreements are made.

For the rest (Cairo, Fasano) they're either too lowly rated to warrant draft picks or teams don't want them back. But I'm sure it's a gamble. So they have to have a sense of the market already and where they fit. The team has to have that too or they could get stuck with an expensive contract.

But think of it this way: By the time a player reaches free agency, almost always in their late twenties or early thirties, you have a good sense of their worth. And if there's been an extension in there, you can gauge it even more effectively.

The one solace on losing Jorge or Mo is that the Yanks would be guaranteed to get two draft picks - there's no way they don't offer arbitration for a one year deal. Indeed, I'm sure that's what they'd prefer rather than a multi-year contract.

142 It depends how much it would hurt his development to sit more than not. But if he is crazy fast, he could be an additional PR and late inning DR (for MAtsui or Abreu).

142 No matter what the class, the odds are still very low.

It doesn't work to look at all the players who are available and cherry-pick the ones who succeed. Mattingly was chosen in the 19th round, Piazza in the 62nd - but they're not an indication of the value of those picks.

buster olney reports the yanks are nosing around mark loretta ... that would be nice

144 Wow, that's searching for a silver lining. There's no way I'd trade either Posada or Rivera for those two picks, ever.

"Mute" point, though. I'll be shocked if they're not signed.

147 Me likey.

147 Loretta would be great if it means the end of Cairo.

The problem with arbitration is nicely illustrated with Abreu. He's making 16 million this year with the same as an option for next year.

Say the Yanks decline the option - they could end up paying more than 16 million if they offer arbitration and he accepts. Problem is, he locks himself into a one year deal.

Instead, he could decline arbitration (with an agreement to do so) and take a three year deal for 36 million.

He gets 20 million more. Yanks gets their picks. And Team X gets an underpowered RF at not a terrible contract.

Isn't it plausible that Joe has completely forgotten Edwar is even on the roster?

147 Now there's a signing I was behind this off-season! It should have been Gomez or Loretta.

148 No doubt.

152 nope, he'll be in the game as soon as we're down at least 5 runs or up 7 (though only if nobody else needs the work, or if mo came into the game in a save situation, even though we scored more runs in the bottom of the inning and it isn't any longer ...)

Of course, if Gardner were called up, you're right he probably wouldn't be used. But I think he is at least a better option that Kevin Thompson, just because of his speed.

I like Melky too. he plays a decent centerfield , but he's not likely to develop any power and he doesn't have any speed. And his on base percentage is only average.

I guess my point on Gardner would be before we blow millions on either Andruw Jones or Hunter ( who is 32 and not likely to replicate this year's numbers ever again) I would like to see Gardner given a shot next year. He seems to fit the mold of a prototypical leadoff man and he's at least six years younger than any top flight free agent CF.
Besides, what other options do we have for a leadoff guy next year, except Damon, who is sketchy at best right now.
Actually, what am I saying. As long as Torre is around, he's likely going to encourage Cash to go get a veteran. Oh, well, one can dream.

151 On the other hand, he might look at his end-of-year numbers and decide to gamble on having better numbers next year. He can play one year for $16M or so; at worst, he can almost certainly get that 2 yr/$20M deal a year from now (making up the difference). With a good year, he may be able to get a lot more.

152 Maybe Edwar keeps turning sideways and Joe can't see him?

I look at Gardner and see Scott Podsednik.

158 Except Gardner is a CF, a position where excellent range and baserunning can make up for lack of power numbers. Kind of like Mickey Rivers.... even though I know it's against the MainStream Media (TM) rules to compare a white player to a black player. (See: Morrison, Adam to Bird, Larry)

155 Why is Melky "not likely to develop any power"? He's 22 and SLGing .441 this month (.378 on the year). At the very least, somewhere in there is fine for a CF. And if he can start approaching .500 during peaks months next year, I'd start to wonder if Melky could be a legit RF (of the Drew/Abreu type) and with that cannon. Otherwise, he's been playing a phenomenal CF this year.

Gardner, by contrast, still has to prove he can hit AAA then MLB pitching. And he's already a year older than Melky. I'm not saying he doesn't have value (by the end of the year it's likely as high as Ellsbury) just that it still remains to be seen exactly where he could fit in - based on what happens with Melky and Damon. We'll have a good read next June.

159 Morrison and Bird are black?

Gardner is more advanced than Posednik was at the same age. Much better numbers across the board. And better ability to steal bases.

A more apt comparison is Juan Pierre though he hit for a higher average (but was a bit less successful at stealing bases). And Pierre jumped right to the majors from AA at age 23. Though Gardner could have this year (age 23) if he played for an organization that needed a CF.

159 Podsednik's a lousy player even as a center fielder, and Mickey Rivers was ony good as long as he kept his average up. The lack of power might be tolerable, but then your OBP better be damn good. Gardner doesn't depend quite as much on batting average as Rivers did, because he's been able to draw a lot of walks - so far. But pitchers in the major leagues throw strikes far more consistently than AA pitchers, and I think he'll have trouble maintaining that BB rate.

161 Fair enough. I don't want Pierre, either.

162 FWIW, Gardner's .272/.352/.318 at Trenton last year projects to .276/.344/.317 at the major league level, according to PECOTA. That's replacement level, which is fine for a 22 year old. This season, he's exceeded his 90th percentile predictions with his .810 OPS at Trenton.

I made a post recently on my blog.

Melky's numbers since May 1 are eerily similar to Bernie's numbers in his age 25 season.

Melky is in his age 23 season, and could develop further.

I am not about to say that Melky will be the next Bernie Williams as that is a tall order, and an unfair expectation, but he could develop adequately enough to be in centerfield full time past this season.

For the table:

http://jeteupthemiddle.blogspot.com/2007/07/thinking-about-melky-cabrera.html

The numbers for Melky were from July 6th. I haven't looked to see how he has done since then.

161 Didn't Pierre make more outs than his total bases one year? I hope Brett Gardner isn't Juan Pierre.

165 I don't think you can compare OPS_200n with OPS_199n straight up.

167 Well its tough, because that's basically getting close to the steroid error. So Bernie's OPS+ is likely artificially supressed around the mid to late 90s since he was clean and not hitting 100 HRs or whatnot.

141 I didn't mean to imply there was some pejorative label...just that if you have been offered arbitration, then the team that signs you has to give up drafts picks, which, in turn, could make you less attractive as a free agent.

166 I would imagine that most hitters have more outs than total bases. Example: Derek Jeter, 2006: 301 Total Bases, 409 Outs. Another Example: Alex Rodriguez, 2005: 369 Total Bases, 409 Outs.

169 Gotcha. But by depressing the market, wouldn't that increase the chance that the player might accept the arbitration offer?

160. Perhaps Melky's power will develop, but I think you're taking a small sample size and a .441 SLG is not overwhelming by any stretch. Listen, I like Melky, but he has no speed and has shown very little power and a so-so on-base percentage.
Gardner, I think projects to a better MLB player in terms of his speed and .OBP. His number at Scranton have been pretty good.

With Garnder, you give him a shot and if he takes he could be a solid lead off hitter. If he doesn't you send him back or use him a a trading chip.

But honestly, does anyone see Melky as anything more than a fourth outfielder, albeit a valuable fourth outfielder. Given that the Yankees keep him ,where does everyone see him hitting in the lineup - 2nd, 3rd, 4th? I don't think so. More likely 7th or 8th.

And while we toss around these Pierre and Posednik comparisons concerning Gardner. Let's remember, that the Marlins and White Sox won the World Series with both as their lead off hitters. I'm not saying those teams won because of them, but both had decent seasons on these teams.

Of course, now, not so much.

170 Good call, mehmattski. The AL so far this year has 19045 total bases, 33231 outs (by my rough calculations).

More to the point is the sheer volume of outs Pierre makes. He's been either first or second in the league every year since he left Colorado, including this year. He's no Omar Moreno, but he sure sucks a lot of offense out of a team.

173 Both of them are useful players - even good ones - if they play to the absolute top of their game. Any less and they're pretty bad.

160 Melky can develop power...in fact, I think he will. Based solely on crude observation, he seems to hit several balls very hard, only to have them die on the track. Has he grows into his body, hopefully those balls will head over the wall.

Going into this season I was sky high on Cano and pessimistic on Cabrera. Now, my expections for both have met at the middle. I honestly think either could be future All Stars at best and league average starters at worst.

172 Oh, it is absolutely a small sample size. I'm not denying that, I just thought it was interesting how close they were.

I also think that while in the exercise I discounted Melky's April, it can't be completely ignored. He did suck for a good month.

He has cooled off a bit since the break, but I think in October when we look at the numbers from May 1 until the end of the season, they will be closer to Bernie's 1994 season.

I'm not saying the Yankees should pencil him in as a starting outfielder next season, but I wouldn't be upset if they did.

I also wouldn't be surprised if he wound up playing one of those positions everyday as he did the past two years due to injury.

177 I should say "closer to Bernie's 1994 season than Melky's 2007 April."

171 Sure. If no offers pour in, the player could turn around and accept arbitration. He just has to make that decision at a deadline early in the FA game. That's kind of besides the point though.

Basically, I don't see any reason why a player would agree to decline arbitration, beyond wanting to leave open a longer window to renegotiate with one team in particular (e.g., Bernie Williams and the Yankees).

173 Also, both were considered valuable commodities at one point or another. Pods did net Carlos Lee after all. If the Yankees can somehow manage to turn Gardner into a player like Carlos Lee, he'd have been worth his weight in sterling silver.

Slightly off topic: This has been one of the most pleasant discussion threads I've read this year.

175 Which translates to - if you developed them, and you're paying them peanuts, by all means, use them if they're useful. When they stop being useful, cut them loose and lose nothing (or trade them to someone who overvalues a .280/.320/.350 line for something useful). But don't ever, ever, ever sign them to long term, big money contracts, because you will regret it. (Sorry, Dodger fans.)

According to Pete Abe:

"Pregame chatter: Kevin Thompson has been optioned back to Scranton. … Doug Mientkiewicz was moved to the 60-day disabled list to make room for Duncan on the 40-man roster. … Perhaps playing in the field will help Damon. Kevin Long is convinced he's close to breaking out of it."

So, Damon is now the primary back-up OF. Good thing he's healthy, or so he says.

Minky being moved to the 60 day DL is a good sign, though. And it looks like Edwar has survived, for now.

Crap...according to Pete Abe, Damon is in CF and Duncan is batting last at DH. Hopefully, the move wasn't made necessary by an injury to Melky.

Also from Pete Abe, Doug Mientkiewicz was moved to the 60-day disabled list to make room for Duncan on the 40-man roster.

Also, I'm not sure if it was mentioned in this thread or not, but Shelley Duncan's contract is going to be purchased for tonight's game.

Any guess to the roster move--keeping in mind another roster move is coming tomorrow between games?

I see 1 of four possibilities:

1. Edwar going down.
2. Thompson going down (though I doubt it, I think they want the extra position player)
3. Johnny Damon to the DL.
4. Mike Myers is designated.

182 184 I'm glad we weren't dueling.

185Well, I guess everyone has the answer then. lol

Oh no, please let Melky be ok. So Joe now says, given a possibly decent DH, lets bench the better hitting, better fielding, better throwing, younger CF for the guy who has one XBH this month and an average below .200.

Welcome to a preview of what will happen when Giambi is healthy.

Damon back in CF. Sigh. Well, maybe Melky's just getting a day to rest his oblique.

And maybe Shelley will hit a walk-off home run as Damon goes 0 for 5 with 5 Ks.

183 CARP. Damon in CF with Mussina on the mound? Please please please just let it be Melky getting a day off before a double header.

184 Ah. Intriguing. Maybe we've seen the last of Stinky Minky. But it still begs the question - who gets booted from the 40-man to make room for Hughes?

188 If Melky gets benched in favor of Damon when Giambi returns (or DH is otherwise filled), I'll say it now: the Yanks are doomed.

189 I hope so too, but hitting like carp hasn't gotten Damon benched, so why would 5 Ks in a game? Still I share your hopes.

]183] Yeah, this is crazy. If Melky is hurt, then HE should go on the DL and Thompson should stay up (whether Damon starts or not).

Mientkiewicz's 60 days will be up at the end of August...which is when he was expected to return anyway.

190 Probably not, I'm sure the move is retroactive to when he was originally hurt. For Hughes I'd say they move Giambi to the 60 day. Then when Giambi and/or Mink are healthy they need to make some decisions, but by then things could be different in terms of the roster.

There had better be a good reason for benching Melky (mild injury, rest, etc.) in favor of Damon who is currently much crappier in every single aspect of the game than Melky.

191 You mean like when they benched Melky for the playoffs last year?

Ok, you know its a bad day when K-theory is less frustrating than the lineup.

196 Is K-theory anything like K-car (a nice, reliable automobile)?

196 Um, no I wish. Its a generalization of cohomology theory:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-theory

its useful for some stuff in string theory. I don't think you want to know more. I certainly wish I didn't have to.

I thought K-theory involved calcualting the relative offensive contribution of Dunn, Branyan, and Shelley Duncan.

Ok, my Gardner comments have drawn a little skepticism. But if Melky's hurt, who wouldn't rather see him in there than Damon?

Actually, I'd rather see Mickey Rivers right now in there than Damon.

199 HA! That's pretty damn funny. I don't know where the K in it comes from actually.

200 I would rather see the actor playing Mickey Rivers in there right now than Damon.

Now I've gone and gotten "If I had a Million Dollars" stuck in my head.

200 I'd rather see the actor playing Mickey Rivers than Damon.

202 203 Damn! I need to type faster.

"Of course we would still eat Kraft Dinner... we'd just eat more!"

198 Also I understood less than 1% of the K-Theory (physics) wiki.

But I do think that "Twisted K-Theory" would be a great band name.

199 Ah, apparently the K comes from the German "klassen" for "class", so it roughly translates to class-theory.

205 Its not really so bad. Its basically a way of categorizing pairs of things called bundles (an example would be say an electric field defined over all of space, the field and space together make up a gauge bundle) that look alike up to some defined addition. Its a sort of fancy way of saying:

(X+A, Y+A) are equivalent because you only care about X-Y.

Its more than that, but that's the basic idea.

207 errr. that should be (X+A,Y+A) is equivalent to (X,Y)

207 I'm sure it does make sense, but as a biologist, my eyes are required by law to glaze over at the first sign of physics.

209 Alright, lets say all you care about a system is the net charge. I give you one configuration with 3 + charges, and 2 - charges. K-theory tells you that's equivalent to taking those 3+ charges, 2 - charges and adding arbitrary number of positive and negative charges in pairs. See?

210 209 207 OK, as a representative of the Humanities (history), I have to ask you two to knowck it off!

; )

211 Sorry, its been a longgg week here.

Back to Pete Abe:

"UPDATE, 4:46 p.m.: Keep in mind that Damon is likely playing CF because Melky suffered a bit of an ab strain yesterday. He was iced down after the game."

It just gets better and better. I love the idea of calling up Shelley Dunca, but does it make the most sense to demote an OF when your starting CF is out and your BUOF is a cripple?

163 1165 Pierre's also a good reason why the Yanks lost the 2003 series. He's been an average CF, albeit a very overpriced one recently. But Pierre had a few solid seasons at CF. If they can get that from Gardner that's very valuable - better than paying 50 million for a vet's downside. Posednik, by contrast, had exactly one good season and it perfectly aligned with his peak (age 27) while he was in MIL (though he did have a fine post-season in 2005).

Gardner seems to get on base more (.390) and it's much less dependent on his average (.292) than Pierre. If his power is closer to this year (.412) than his career (.37). He could be a very fine CF and leadoff hitter for 3 to 5 years (ages 24 to 29) depending on when he gets the call.

172 I do. Melky has shown himself to be an above average CF despite his lack of blazing speed. If his power is consistently above .400 SLG then he's, at the very least, a very good CF for a maybe 7 years. If it gets north of .450 then he's a decent corner OF. Seeing as he has a few years to peak, I'd rather they Yanks hold onto him than watch him develop into a Juan Rivera on another club.

Meanwhile, I think a segment of Yankee fans tend to think that if a player isn't a superstar then he doesn't belong. Case in point - Cano. I'd rather see what they offer, and at the cheap cost, rather than trying to replace them with a free agent or trade. In the market today - it would be very difficult to replace Cano or Melky and you won't get anyone with their upside. In both their cases, there's no harm in holding onto them for a few years to see a bit better what the Yanks have. Same deal with Gardner.

The 12 pitching prospects on the other hand...

213 They're probably just giving him the day off. Plus, they have Cairo to play CF!!!

215 Doesn't it seem odd that Damon never gets a day off though? I'm willing to chalk it up to the strain, but this better not be the alignment for good.

BTW: Two thoughts on the Loretta rumor:

1) It's meaningless. They're just kicking the tires around baseball to see what's available.

2) They're looking at a big trade (Teixeira?) and would include Cano to make it happen.

216 I think the thinking with Duncan is that Damon won't play one game tomorrow. So Duncan plays two days in a row to give an quick impression. And hopefully that means either Melky or Duncan play both games. Or Damon DH's one and plays CF in the other - drats!

Pete doing his best work:

UPDATE, 5:15 p.m.: Torre, now appearing on WFAN, just said his intention was to sit Damon for a few days but Cabrera came in today and said his ab strain was sore. So Damon is playing center and Melky will get a day off today. "His time off will have to wait a couple of days," Torre said.

219 Yep--you beat me to it.

Now, I don't expct Duncan to sudenly be the next Babe Ruth. But does any other team use their 1B and DH to bat #9 (or otherwise really low in the order) more than the Yankees?

179 I managed to completely miss your point at least twice. My apologies. In fact, I think you're basically supporting my original point: don't offer arbitration unless you're willing to have the player accept.

Or else I'm befuddled again. It wouldn't be the first time.

217 Yeah, you're almost certainly right - I'm betting on (1). But damn, just the thought of having a bench player who can actually play a little makes me drool.

Of course, I drool most of the time anyway, so that might not mean much.

more from pete ...

UPDATE, 5:22 p.m.: Brian Cashman went to New Britain to see Joba Chamberlain pitch tonight. It's not that much of a stretch because Cash lives in Connecticut. But interesting that they're keeping such a close eye on a AA pitcher.

ol' petey sure seems rather obtuse about minor leaguers most of the time ... it's like he thinks new yankees spring forth fully formed in an instant, like venus leaping forth from the forehead of zeus ...

all i know is that i'd love to see The Hut stomping out of our bully near the end of games this year, but if J.J.J.Shabbadoo puts him on the EDSP plan, i'm going all Hannibal Lecter on Joey Joe Joe ...

Torre said we're going to see Edwar tomorrow (D'uh.)

BTW: If they disable Melky or Damon, can't they recall KT without the 10 days passing? I thought that was the exception.

225 gee, i wonder if anyone asked, "do you expect he might be rusty after sitting on the bullpen bench for 2 weeks?"

181 I was thinking the same thing on my way home. Heartfelt thanks to all.

225 I'm pretty sure you're right about that one, Jim.

209 He's probably talking about fiber bundles, so no glazed eyes from biologists.

Just to show how crazy baseball is:

In 109 IP of his professional career, Joba had given up 2 HR.

Tonight, in 2 IP tonight, he's given up 3 HR - the only 3 hits - against 3 K and 0 BB.

231 Maybe the pressure of performing for Cashman got him?

231 1=0.

Before I head up to the new game thread, one last Pete Abe update about team player Johnny Damon:

"UPDATE, 6:16 p.m.: I see the comments that people want Damon put on the disabled list. One little problem: He is not injured. Damon told us yesterday that he feels as good physically as he has all season. Watch him on the bases, he is going to first to third easily and taking extra bases every time he's out there. Damon and his agent (a Mr. Scott Boras of Newport Beach, Calif.) are not going to let the Yankees just throw him on the DL. It's not that simple. Not being able to hit isn't an injury."

233 thank god, otherwise wil nieves would be on life support

234 Excellent.

230 I guess that shows that baseball is the most unpredictable sport. I defy anyone to predict baseball - you just can't do it.

232 1=0.

Wow. I'm going to have to think about that one for a while. Among other things, it will destroy the entire computer industry.

236 No point in thinking if 1=0 - you can prove and disprove any statement...

237 I think you're wrong, and I can prove it.

238 Like I said, pointless.

237, C'mon, if we take the set of integers mod 1, then 1=0 ;)