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Still Fighting
2007-07-17 20:35
by Cliff Corcoran

Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay both entered yesterday's game trying to get on track after a series of ugly outings. After the first inning, it looked like this just wasn't going to be their night. Pettitte threw 25 pitches in the top of the first, allowed a run on a single, a walk, and a Frank Thomas double, and was fortunate to strand runners on second and third. Halladay threw 28 pitches in the bottom of the first starting with a five-pitch walk to Johnny Damon, who moved to third on a pair of groundouts. With two outs, Alex Rodriguez drove Damon home with a single and the Yankees proceeded to load the bases only to strand all three men when Robinson Cano grounded out.

To recap, that's 53 pitches, seven base runners, and a 1-1 score after a single frame.

Pettitte threw another 23 pitches in the top of the second, but avoided giving up a run when Reed Johnson's two-out double near the line in left bound into the stands, forcing Royce Clayton, who had singled, to hold up at third. Pettitte then struck out Alex Rios to preserve the 1-1 tie.

Then everything changed. Halladay retired the Yankees in order in the second. Pettitte did the same to the Blue Jays in the third on just nine pitches, including a three-pitch strikeout of Thomas. Suddenly it was the top of the eighth and the scoreboard still read 1-1.

Halladay and Pettitte matched each other almost exactly:

Halladay - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 112 pitches
Pettitte - 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K, 116 pitches

With Pettitte staring down 120 pitches, however, Joe Torre needed to bring in someone else to pitch the eighth. Luis Vizcaino would have been the obvious choice based on recent performance, but he had pitched in each of the last two games and in four of the last five. Scott Proctor pitched two innings on Monday and has allowed eight base runners in his last 2 2/3 innings. Ron Villone's last outing was a blown save. Edwar Ramirez hadn't pitched since before the All-Star break and remains an unknown quantity. Mariano Rivera, having closed each of the last three games and four of the last five, was not a candidate to go two innings. Mike Myers is a specialty guy whom Torre is now refusing to use even for that purpose (more on that below). That left supposed "eighth-inning guy" Kyle Farnsworth and Brian Bruney, both of whom were fully rested. Torre chose the wrong guy.

I doubt there was a Yankee fan watching who didn't assume the Blue Jays would take the lead when they saw Farnsworth taking his warmups in the top of the eighth. Indeed, Frank Thomas led off with a single. Toronto manager John Gibbons pinch-ran with Howie Clark, and Aaron Hill doubled Clark home to give Toronto a 2-1 lead.

It was actually a bit more interesting than that. Farnsworth, who made a wild throw to first in the 11th inning of a 1-1 game against the Angels just before the All-Star Break, yanked a pickoff throw past Andy Phillips to send Clark to second base. The best part is that Clark was standing on first base when Farnsworth threw over; he hadn't even taken his lead yet. Curiously, Lyle Overbay then lined out directly to Phillips, who was playing back because he didn't have to hold on Clark, but it was all rendered meaningless by Hill's RBI double.

The Yankees staged another two-out rally in the eighth against lefty reliever Scott Downs. Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada both singled to put the tying run on second base with two outs, but Downs threw Robinson Cano six straight looping curve balls, and Robinson missed badly at the first two and the last to end the inning.

Having burned through Farnsworth, Joe Torre then called on Brian Bruney in the ninth. Bruney retired the heart of the Blue Jay order (Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus) in order on 11 pitches, seven of them strikes. Here's hoping Joe noticed.

Andy Phillips, who had the game-winning hit in each of the previous two games, lead off the bottom of the ninth with a single against Jays closer Jeremy Accardo. Torre then pinch-ran for Phillips with Miguel Cairo, and Cairo stole second on a 1-0 count to Melky Cabrera to put the tying run in scoring position. Melky then attempted to bunt Cairo to third (as he should have), but bunted foul for strike two (he had purposely swung through the pitch on which Cairo stole second). Melky then followed that failed bunt attempt with a single through the hole into right field. Larry Bowa sent Cairo home as Alex Rios fired to the plate. Cairo slid to the outside of the plate as Gregg Zaun lept for Rios's throw. As Zaun came down with the ball, he collided with Cairo, who was reaching in for the bag. Having received a hip-check to the head, Cairo was stopped cold and tagged out. Had Cairo headed directly for the plate, he would have been safe easily, but there was no way for him to anticipate that the play would unfold as it did.

Fortunately, Melky moved to second on the play, so, after all of that, the Yankees still had the tying run in scoring position with one out. With a 2-1 count on Johnny Damon, Cabrera stole third as Accardo appeared to have forgotten about him. Accardo then walked Damon and, as Cabrera and Damon danced of third and first respectively, Accardo came set, bent his back knee, and stepped off the rubber, balking home the tying run. Suddenly the Yankees had the winning run on second with one out, but Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu, who were a combined 0-for-10 in the game, both grounded out to push the game into extra innings.

Called in for emergency duty, Luis Vizcaino, despite missing a few miles per hour off his fastball, pitched around a one-out single to send the 2-2 tie to the bottom of the tenth. Casey Janssen, in for Accardo, opened the inning by plunking Alex Rodriguez on the elbow pad with a 0-1 pitch. Janssen then threw a 2-2 pitch to Hideki Matsui in the dirt and Rodriguez alertly moved to second as the ball squirted into fair territory and Zaun stumbled attempting to corral it. Earlier in that at-bat, Matsui missed a game-winning home run by mere feet, pulling a ball about three seats foul into the front row of the upper deck in left. Janssen rallied to strike out Matsui on a bad pitch up in the zone that was such a miss that it fooled Matsui completely. With first base open, the Gibbons then walked Jorge Posada to pitch to Robinson Cano, who had twice failed to deliver the hit that could have made the difference in the game, leaving five men on base in the process. This time, Cano laced Janssen's first pitch into the corner in deep left, plating Rodriguez and winning the game, 3-2 in ten innings.

It was a great win for the Yankees, and puts them in a great position as most had assumed that with Kei Igawa starting for the Yankees on Monday and Roy Halladay starting for the Blue Jays last night, the Yankees would lose at least one of those games. The game also comes with a lesson.

After Farnsworth allowed the go-ahead run in the eighth, Gibbons pinch-hit with lefty Matt Stairs. Rather than countering with LOOGY Mike Myers, Torre elected to intentionally walk Stairs with first base open and two outs. The move worked. It was also the second time in two days that Torre opted not to bring in Myers to face Stairs with a man in scoring position and two outs, preferring instead to stick with a righty pitcher who had already allowed a run in that game. It worked both times, in fact. With that, Mike Myers, against whom lefties are hitting .327/.406/.473 this season, has officially become dead weight. With Farnsworth and Proctor struggling and Torre threatening to pitch Vizcaino's arm off as he appeared to have done in April, the Yankees need to cut Myers loose (just as they did Mike Stanton and Paul Quantrill two years ago), and bring up Chris Britton, who has allowed just two base runners in his five major league innings this year, had a 3.35 ERA in 52 major league games last year, and has posted the following line in triple-A this year: 2.45 ERA, 44 IP, 40 H, 2 HR, 12 BB, 48 K, 3-1, 8 SV.

At the very least, Myers, not Edwar Ramirez, should be the pitcher taken off the roster when Matt DeSalvo is called up for his spot start on Saturday. Ramirez, meanwhile, should be given a chance to contribute and, if he struggles, should be replaced by Britton. Myers is cheap (he's making $1.25 million this season, which means the Yankees owe him less than a million bucks over the remainder of the season) and, in addition to Ron Villone, the Yankees have lefties Sean Henn, Ben Kozlowski, and Charlie Manning all pitching well in relief for Scranton should they feel the need for a specialist. The Yankees need better relief pitching, but they have the talent on hand to improve their pen. The problem is that the best relievers in the system aren't necessarily the men in the major league pen. Deleting Myers and shifting responsibility from Farnsworth and Proctor to Vizcaino (which seemingly has been done), Bruney, and possibly either Britton or Ramirez could completely change the Yankees late-inning outlook for the better.

Comments (124)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-07-17 22:02:26
1.   yankz
Ah, I love Cliff's night owl posts.

"Here's hoping Joe noticed."- I'm not feeling too lucky.

2007-07-17 23:19:17
2.   rilkefan
"Mike Myers, against whom lefties are hitting .327/.406/.473 this season"

I suspect this is misleading. What is the OPS of the lefties he has faced? Even the right-split of those batters? Last I saw Myers had 7 RSAA.

2007-07-18 04:14:14
3.   Jim Dean
If you're interested Cliff, someone needs to give you a job as a beat reporter. Just a great recap. And with all of your experience and knowledge, you'd step in and immediately be better than three quarters of the guys in the market.
2007-07-18 04:47:44
4.   Raf
2 He's been effective against righties, going .164/.235/.295 (61 AB's). This year and last, he was more effective against RHB.
2007-07-18 05:13:43
5.   Murray
Ha!
2007-07-18 05:55:48
6.   Sliced Bread
0 "I doubt there was a Yankee fan watching who didn't assume the Blue Jays would take the lead when they saw Farnsworth taking his warmups in the top of the eighth."

Girardi and Singleton took it a step further and called Farnswacker's errant throw to first before it happened.

Kyle ditched his spectacles, but it was Torre who was flying blind.

Girardi observed that the Jays are not a team that runs, while Singleton suggested Farns should remain focused on the batter... d'oh!

I have a softspot in my heart for Farnswacker, I mean, the guy's not trying to f-up, took less money to come here, and all that -- but the big palooka has the baseball IQ of, I dunno, Danny Bonaduce.

Until they trade him, I'll keep rooting for him, but Joe has to recognize that Rivera and Bruney are his Gossage and Tidrow, the only relievers he can rely on in close games.

Farnswacker and Proctor are 7th and 8th inning losses waiting to happen.

- Am I mistaken or did Joe yell "Cookie!" at Posada before they intentionally walked Stairs? I don't think I've ever heard an intentional walk referred to as a cookie.

Is DeSalvo truly our best option for the doubleheader? I guess recent evidence suggests otherwise but I prefer Clippard.

Go to Edwar! Free Britton! Cut Myers! Sounds like a fine idea, Cliff.

2007-07-18 05:57:17
7.   Sliced Bread
6 Oh, and get a Joba!
2007-07-18 06:02:53
8.   tommyl
2 That's not really the point though. His sole job on the team is to get out tough lefties, if he's not doing that as Cliff said he's deadweight. There are plenty of other guys around who can get lesser righties out, and lefties out at at least that rate.
2007-07-18 06:10:28
9.   Jim Dean
From Neyer's blog (apologize for the length but Insider isn't that this morning, and well it's hard to know if it will go back behind the firewall):

Yanks use stats to find a gem
posted: Tuesday, July 17, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry

Fellow Travelers, we have a new catchphrase: "Statistics found him."

It will forever be associated with Yankees reliever Edwar Ramirez, but Billy Eppler deserves the lion's share of the credit, for both the catchphrase and for Ramirez's being a Yankee. I hope you'll pardon the long extract, but the Newark Star-Ledger's Ed Price tells this story so well...(http://tinyurl.com/2ja5z4)

NEW YORK -- If anyone deserves credit for the Yankees' discovery of Edwar Ramirez, it's a computer.

"Statistics found him," Billy Eppler, the team's director of professional scouting, said yesterday.

Ramirez has pitched twice since his July 1 promotion to the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA.

It was early July last year when the Yankees needed a reliever to fill out their roster at Class A Tampa.

While Eppler looked for players who had been recently released by other organizations, Troy Caradonna -- the assistant director of baseball operations in the team's Tampa offices -- checked statistics of the independent leagues.

Caradonna found Ramirez in the United League: 1.07 ERA, 46 strikeouts and 10 walks in 25 1/3 innings for Edinburg (Texas).

"We didn't send anybody in to look," Eppler said. "I looked at a few old reports, didn't see anything [negative], and made a couple of phone calls checking on [mental] makeup."

People from the Los Angeles Angels, who had released Ramirez twice, didn't bring up any red flags. Nor did his injury history. So the Yankees signed him, paying the United League in the range of $1,500 to $3,000.

What the Yankees never found out until they got Ramirez is that he had taught himself a wicked changeup while he was out of baseball in 2004. He pitched in 19 games for Tampa, going 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA, 47 strikeouts and six walks in 30 2/3 innings.

That was last season. This season, Ramirez's numbers in the minors were simply phenomenal. With Double-A Trenton, he struck out 33 batters in 16 innings. With Triple-A Scranton, he struck out 47 batters in 27 innings. Now he's in the majors, and he's struck out four batters in two innings. In his debut he struck out three straight Twins, all with that nasty changeup.

For all the talk about the Yankees' financial advantage, it's worth mentioning that any other team in baseball could have picked up Ramirez. If only they'd let the statistics do their work for them."

2007-07-18 06:24:52
10.   Cliff Corcoran
9 Indeed, the Yankees have made some great "small" moves in picking up Ramirez, Bruney, and Rasner, all for nothing.
2007-07-18 06:44:05
11.   Shaun P
2 Myers has also pitched more innings so far this year than he did last year, and is on pace to pitch more innings that he ever has before. Couple that to dominating righties, and I'm not surprised by his RSAA total.

FWIW, Myers' WXRL is -.480, good for 550th out of 581 MLB pitchers. Time for him to go.

2007-07-18 06:56:59
12.   Jim Dean
10 Makes you wonder who's "running" that part of the operation, huh?

I know my "Cash bash" doesn't give me credibility on these fronts, but I have a hard time imagining him behind these moves. The spending outlay is so small that it seems there's really no need for him to be involved. Indeed, it would probably would have taken more money to send a scout (airfare and hotel) than it did to just pay the league. Would this then fall under Oppenheimer or Newman then?

Other teams have similar successes (Jenks comes to mind) but it's good to see the Yanks competing on all fronts (draft, international, Rule 5, independent leagues). Cashman does deserve some of that credit (yup, I just said it). The only area they've really gotten screwed up is in free agency.

2007-07-18 07:02:39
13.   mehmattski
There was some question yesterday why, despite his role in the game-tying run, Melky had an overall negative value for WPA yesterday. The play log is now up and should give some clues. Melky's at bats:

Bottom 2, One out, Runner on first: Melky bunts back to the pitcher. WPA: -0.017.

Bottom 5, One out, none on: Melky singles to center. WPA: 0.035

Bottom 7, One out, Runner on first: Melky singles to center. WPA: 0.054

Bottom 9, No outs, Runner on second; down 2-1: Melky singles to right, Cairo out at the plate. WPA: -0.167.

So despite going 3 for 4, Melky had a negative WPA because of a player gunned down on the basepaths. This, to me, seems like a huge flaw in WPA for hitters. It is not a hitters' fault if a baserunner (or in this case, third base coach) makes a blunder that costs the team a chance to win the game.

2007-07-18 07:04:26
14.   51cq24
12 indeed you have no credibility on this issue. everything good was because of someone else, everything bad was because of cashman. you have a feeling cashman is stupid, so every good move must be someone else's. maybe you're right, but you're only guessing.
2007-07-18 07:12:11
15.   Jim Dean
14 Read the last part. But thanks for sharing, 51cq24!
2007-07-18 07:30:42
16.   Shaun P
13 I personally have no use for WPA. I just don't see the value that it adds, despite that being explained to me many times.

0 Roster moves . . . (this is long, sorry.)

DeSalvo needs a spot. Igawa can't be sent down; Hughes won't be ready the next time the Yanks need a 5th starter (July 26th at KC; Hughes's next rehab start is July 23rd). So Myers is almost certainly gone. DeSalvo takes his spot on the 25-man, pitches the first game, then gets sent down, dropping the pitchers to 12. But what "bat" gets called up?

Shelley Duncan is the obvious (long overdue) choice, but he isn't on the 40-man. He could take Myers's spot, but then Hughes needs a spot too.

This is where it gets tricky. Is room made by a trade? Does Villone follow Myers out? Does Kevin Reese or Colter Bean get removed? I don't know.

And that's not all. Karstens needs a 40-man spot too. So does Rasner (if he's back before the season ends). (I'm ignoring Veras and Sanchez for now, 'cuz they'll be added after the season ends.)

But who else could they bring up besides Duncan? Reese and Basak (the only AAA hitters on the 40-man) aren't "bats". Sardinha just got demoted to AA. The Attorney General isn't a "bat". That leaves . . . Juan Miranda?

However they figure this out, I guess I expect to see Shelley Duncan in pinstripes on Sunday.

2007-07-18 07:33:53
17.   Shaun P
16 The more I think about it, the Yanks can't cut Reese, because who would they call up then if Damon ever gets his butt placed on the DL where it belonged two months ago? Not that Damon will ever be put on the DL, but still.
2007-07-18 07:37:46
18.   51cq24
15 i read it before i wrote 14. just because you say he deserves "some of that credit" doesn't take away from the point of your post, which is seemingly that if they are doing something good, cashman must not be the one doing it. and while everything you say may be true- cashman may be behind every disaster and may not even be trying to make the team better- you are just speculating annoyingly. some things are inexplicable to me also, but you don't really give him much credit, even if you say he deserves "some" right after saying you have a hard time imagining him making good moves. all i know is that he insists he is rebuilding the farm system and will not trade any of the top prospects. if that means we have to suffer through a disappointing year, i'm fine with it. it would be nice if he had guessed right on every free agent and guys like pena, but he isn't the only one who guesses wrong. i'm more interested in the direction of the team than whether he was heavily involved in a couple of really thin free agent markets. and i don't trust his replacement to be as devoted to maintaining the farm system, especially since his firing would indicate to everyone that the only priority is to win now. what stops the next gm from trading chamberlain for richie sexson?
2007-07-18 07:45:13
19.   williamnyy23
Edwar may very well be a find, but I don't think you can pat Cashman on the back just yet. After all, he is also responsible for the Yankees employing a manager who refuses to use him.

16 If Myers survives the next roster move I'll be shocked...and then angered. I'm sure not having a roster spot is costing Duncan a shot with the big club, but there really is no reason not to move Colter Bean off. I see no point in having a 30-year old minor league reliever that you never intend to use.

Also, do the Yankees already have a full 40-man? The list on the left seems to only have 38.

Regardless, maybe the Yankees could put Igawa on waivers with the intention of taking him off the 40-man and sending him to the minors. He'll serve no use once Karstens and Hughes come off and would be better served down in the minors anyway. I think I might make that move right now...I'd much rather have Hughes and Karstens form a tag-team starter (3+ innings a piece) right now instead of wasting pitches rehabbing the minors.

2007-07-18 07:48:00
20.   williamnyy23
18 That's a great point...unless you completely disagree with Cashman's philosophy, then there is no reason to fire him. Unless the Yankees can sign a Billy Beane type to a long-term deal, I don't want to have to worry about the instability that comes with new GMs without a tie to the orgainzation trying to make an immediate splash.
2007-07-18 07:49:48
21.   Raf
12 WRT free agency, had they paid attention to the stats, in several cases, they wouldn't have made as many mistakes as they have.
2007-07-18 07:50:02
22.   rilkefan
Note that part of my point in 2 was that Myers has pitched a lot to not average lefties but elite ones. His OPS-against only makes sense in the context of the OPS of the batters he faced. Imagine he only pitched to Ortiz - an OPS-against of 0.850 would likely be pretty good.
2007-07-18 07:58:06
23.   51cq24
22 except that his "job" is to face the tough lefties. he's bad at it.

19 karstens is not good.

2007-07-18 08:00:32
24.   williamnyy23
22 I picked up on your point and think it is a good one. However, Myers job is to get the very good lefties out. He has lived off his repuation as a Bonds slayer, so if he can longer perform that roll, he becomes a guy who can be effective in mop up type outings, which can skew stats and be very deceiving. The Red Sox had one of those guys in JC Romero, but smartly let him go inspite of very good composite numbers.
2007-07-18 08:10:27
25.   williamnyy23
23 Karstens wasn't that bad in 40 innings last year. Regardless, he, alone, is better than Igawa, not to mention a cocktail of equal parts Karstens and Hughes.
2007-07-18 08:13:00
26.   Start Spreading the News
20 There is a Billy Beane type available -- Paul DePodesta. He is young and smart. Billy Beane raved about him. LA Dodgers are benefitting from his work now that they fired him.

Note on yesterday's game, the Yanks tried to bunt a few times and both times they failed miserably. If they are going to use the bunt as a tool to eke across one run, then shouldn't they know how to bunt???

Who gets the blame for this? The hitting coach? How does Andy Phillips a career minor leaguer not know how to bunt?

2007-07-18 08:13:11
27.   51cq24
25 but if you're making a cocktail of equal parts, why not get joba up here? personally i'd just let hughes pitch.
2007-07-18 08:13:59
28.   51cq24
depodesta and steinbrenner what a team that would make
2007-07-18 08:18:23
29.   rilkefan
23 'except that his "job" is to face the tough lefties. he's bad at it.'

Show me the stats.

24 If you argument is that Torre won't use Myers full stop, and we don't anyway need a reliever with 7 RSAA (either because he's good or because he has faced the bottom of the order when not pitching to the elite lefties of the league), then fine.

2007-07-18 08:25:28
30.   Raf
26 Easy; he's a career minor leaguer who has slugged .516 over his MiL career.
2007-07-18 08:29:46
31.   rilkefan
"your argument", blah.
2007-07-18 08:30:14
32.   51cq24
29 are you serious? this is the first i've seen anyone argue on bahalf of myers. he does not deserve it.
2007-07-18 08:30:50
33.   51cq24
behalf
2007-07-18 08:33:47
34.   tommyl
29 Mike Myers against lefties:

.327/.406/.473

to quote Cliff above. He's allowing over 40% of them to reach base. Isn't that bad?

2007-07-18 08:36:25
35.   mehmattski
29 Here's the career statistics of Mike Myers versus some "tough lefties":

Barry Bonds: 33 PA, .320/.485/.520 1 HR
Shawn Green: 23 PA, .222/.391/.278 0 HR
Todd Helton: 20 PA, .286/.500/.357 0 HR
Ryan Klesko: 20 PA, .200/.400/.600 2 HR
Carl Crawford: 19 PA, .333/.368/.722 1 HR
David Ortiz: 18 PA, .313/.333/.563 1 HR
Rafael Palmeiro: 18 PA, .333/.389/.400 0 HR
Ken Griffey Jr: 17 PA, .294/.294/.529 1 HR

This season, David Ortiz is 3 for 5 against him with a double and a strikeout in 6 PA. Carl Crawford is 3 for 4 with a homer. Todd Helton singled and walked in two plate appearances.

However Myers has done a good job of getting out: Darrin Erstad, Tom Glavine, Endy Chavez, David Dellucci, Dave Roberts, and Lyle Overbay...

2007-07-18 08:40:46
36.   OldYanksFan
From Pending Pinstripes:
Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reports that the MRI on Dellin Betances' elbow did not find any structural damage.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/sports/baseball/18pins.html

"The Yankees were relieved to learn yesterday that Dellin Betances, one of their top pitching prospects, has only inflammation in his right elbow. Betances, 19, left his start on Sunday for Class A Staten Island after three innings because of elbow stiffness, and his velocity dropped from 94 or 95 miles an hour to 90 or 91."

2007-07-18 08:51:41
37.   pwicked
Would all you "stat heads" here invent a new one that, when shown to the Yankees brass, would make it all but impossible not to can Farnsworth... Yeah, thats it, the Can Farnsworth Factor (CFF). And oh, start working on the Can Proctor Factor (CPF) too...
2007-07-18 08:52:14
38.   OldYanksFan
ESPN Player Ratings
http://tinyurl.com/23erpj

Does anyone know what these ratings are based on? Are these Stat based? Are they position adjusted?
For the Stat heads here, there are some really weird numbers, such as Posada ranking at (51).

Comments?

2007-07-18 08:52:55
39.   Eirias
The nickname "The Run Fairy" for Felix Heredia is obviously a work of such brilliance that it will never be surpassed. However, I think we need a proper nickname for Farnsworth, in the same manner as we have one for Pavano. Any ideas?
2007-07-18 08:55:55
40.   pwicked
39 Douchebag comes to mind. Oops, did I write that?
2007-07-18 08:56:53
41.   monkeypants
16 Bean, Reese, and Basak are basically redundant. As long as Cairo breathes and walks, there is need for Basak (especially now that Phillips has re-earned a spot on the bench of guts). Reese and Thompson are basically interchangeable. Plus, if Thompson is somehow pressed into starting more (like, Damon goes on the DL or gets hit by lightening; the latter is more likely), they could call up Gardner or Christian for spot duty in the OF. Bean--I like the idea of Colter Bean, but they just don't want to use him, and with Beam and Britton (and Henn) there are othr MiL arms for the BP.

Basically, I'm saying that there are currently some very expendable pieces of the 40 man roster, so the team shouldn't (in my opinion) feel hamstrung by it.

One other thought. If the team was REALLY ballsy, they would drop Nieves and go with only one catcher for one of teh games of the DH, which could open up a roster spot w/o affecting the BP at all. Nieves goes down for 10 days, and after De Salvo is sent back down (one game), the equally awful AAA C can replace Nieves.

2007-07-18 09:01:46
42.   williamnyy23
29 I think Myer's splits are very relevant. Consider the following:

Tie Game – OPS =1.158 (9 PA)
Within 1 R – OPS =1.425 (21 PA
Within 2 R – OPS =1.034 (39 PA)
Within 3 R – OPS =1.004 (48 PA)
Within 4 R – OPS = 0.837 (70 PA)
Margin > 4 R – OPS = .551 (63 PA)

For whatever reason, Myers pitches much better as the game becomes increasingly irrelevant. Needless to say, he has not performed any role other than mop man well for this team and therefore doesn't deserve a roster spot (I'd keep him over Kyle if not for the salary discrepancy).

2007-07-18 09:06:09
43.   tommyl
37 What do you have against Proctor? He's a much more serviceable reliever than Farnsworth is. He's not lights out, but he's a decent mid leverage guy.
2007-07-18 09:07:18
44.   51cq24
43 i agree proctor is pretty valuable
2007-07-18 09:07:18
45.   rilkefan
34 Again, the raw #s aren't good but you have an implicit assumption that they are to be compared to average MLer performace. If his OPS_against_Ortiz/expected(OPS_a_O) is 1 or less (which I suspect is the case) then he's doing ok, esp. given the sample size. (Note one really wants a ratio of ratios to account for how well one would expect the set of LOOGYs to do against Ortiz et al.)

Anyway, I can't stick around and argue low-stats significance, have to shuffle off to the lab.

2007-07-18 09:09:20
46.   williamnyy23
38 They are very crude at best. I can't remember the specifics off hand, but during a chat held along side their first publication, just about every question picked apart the methodology. If you can find that chat session on ESPN.com, it will reveal all of the problems with the rankings.
2007-07-18 09:15:25
47.   monkeypants
45 et al. Two things that I like about Meyers: 1] He knows he knows that the team brought him in to fill a certain role (LOOGY), and that he has not performed that duty adequately; he himself has stated as much. 2] He has proven willing to adjust his role to the needs of the team--pitching slop in blowouts, or even picking up innings of generic middle relief to give the BP a rest. That's why he is on pace for a career high in innnings.

Compare this with Farnsworth, who is the set-up guy, but won't pitch on consecutive days, pitch consecutive innings, or come in to pitch in the middle of an inning. And that's without even getting to the fact that in the few selected conditions when the delicate flower can pitch, he has totally failed to do his job.

2007-07-18 09:16:11
48.   mehmattski
46 The comments following the "methodology" explanation for the player rater should be what you're looking for:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2897967

RBIs? Team win percentage? Ick.

2007-07-18 09:20:24
49.   tommyl
47 That's all well and good. I think Myers is a nice guy and many people with access have said as much. Still, in the business of winning games he should be gone. Let me put it this way, tie game, extra innings we're down to the last man coming out the pen. Would you rather see Britton, Henn, Ramirez or Myers in the game?

Me, I'd rather see one of the first three. Now if Myers was lights out against elite lefties that would be a different story, because then he's valuable. But he's not, so carrying him as a LOOGY makes no sense.

2007-07-18 09:21:11
50.   tommyl
49 Let me also add, that if what you want is a guy who can eat innings, there are many options for a long man out there. Karstens, Rasner or Igawa could potentially fill that role. Henn could too, and both Igawa and Henn are lefties.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-07-18 09:25:10
51.   williamnyy23
48 The Q&A is also a fun read because it exposes the flaws one by one as the creater of the metric responds dumbfoundedly.
2007-07-18 09:38:42
52.   monkeypants
49 50 Ah, you misunderstand my point, grasshopper. I never said I wanted to see Meyers when the game was on the line. I was merely making a comparison between Farnsworth and Meyers, pointing out that both occupy specialist roles and both have failed at that role, yet Meyers has at least shown teh willingness to help out in other circumstances.

Moreover, while failing at being a LOOGY, Meyers has been a fairly effective reliever this year, especially when compared to Farnsworth:

Meyers: ERA 2.87, G 42, INN 31.1, K 14, BB 12, HR 3 WHIP 1.28
Farnsworth: ERA 4.46, G 41, INN 38.1, K 19, BB 24, HR 4, WHIP 1.64

Except for innings pitched, Meyers either equals or betters Farnsworth across the board. Wiliamnyy23 42 said that he would keep Meyers over Farnsy if not for salary. I disagree, salary is a sunk cost. I would keep Meyers over Farnsy right now, hands down. But I would not use Meyers as a LOOGY, but instead use him as the sort of mediocre middle reliever that every team carries.

2007-07-18 09:52:50
53.   ny2ca2dc
52 "But I would not use Meyers as a LOOGY, but instead use him as the sort of mediocre middle reliever that every team carries."

So would I. But that's not going to happen. Except for the emergencies early in the year, Torre has shown he's not going to use Meyers other than the method indicated on his label. Though, for me, I don't really care who goes, and I'd rather Meyers AND Farns go, and my theory is that even as shitty as they are, they're still two relievers and is should be able to net the Philly's BUC.

2007-07-18 09:59:28
54.   ny2ca2dc
13 Thanks for that, that clears it up; Some of these concepts, like win shares and WPA seem so totally useless. Maybe fun to think about & mess around with, like working on an old car, but I don't think they add any value to our understanding of what it takes to win ball games.
2007-07-18 10:18:47
55.   rilkefan
42 Those are interesting #s. I'll have to think about what's behind that - maybe being brought in against elite lefties in high-leverage situations - but this was the sort of table used to bash A-Rod last year. And I see the data in e.g. 52 and wonder why the focus on Myers given his overall 0.237/0.313/0.368 against. If the claim is that he's poor against lefties this year (in a small sample) and Torre won't use his 7 RSAA performance in other contexts, so we should free up his spot, that's fine - but the animus should be directed at Torre.
2007-07-18 10:24:50
56.   tommyl
55 I disagree here. The only thing Myers has shown he can do this year is get out bottom of the order type righties. I doubt those numbers were compiled against people like Manny and such. Given that, I think Britton or Henn could do just as well against mediocre righties, but have the potential to do a lot better against more elite hitters from either side. Hence, Myers shouldn't be there. Farnsworth shouldn't either, but that's a straw man argument. I'm not saying keep one over the other, I'm saying get rid of both and call up either Britton or Henn, leaving Edwar up as well.
2007-07-18 10:27:27
57.   Jim Dean
Hughes through 4 IP 2 H 1 ER 2 BB 5 K
2007-07-18 10:45:36
58.   rilkefan
56 "I doubt those numbers were compiled against people like Manny and such."

That's the mirror of my argument about his performance against lefties. And if in fact his 7 RSAA were compiled by facing on-average mediocre batters, and his OPS_against for lefties is bad relative to the expected performance against those he's faced (and that comparison is statistically significant), then fine, let's give Henn and his small-sample 4.66 ERA/-1 RSAA a shot. I'd like to see the relevant numbers, that's all.

And the same numbers for Vizcaino and Villone, for that matter.

2007-07-18 10:45:54
59.   monkeypants
56 How do the numbers shown in 42 indicate that all Meyers has done is get out bottom of the order lefties. It only shows that he's been more effective the wider the margin of runs, not teh quality of hitters faced. I'm not saying your wrong, but wouldn't we need to see some evidence for the quality of the batters that he has faced, which is what 45 29 25 2 pointed out--42 starts to address the issue.

I am not arguing wth you position per se. But according to the stats, Meyers has been an effective reliever this year, albeit seemingly not in his original role. If the surface supporting evidence for his effectiveness (ERA, WHIP) is in some ways masking the "real story", there should be some numbers to support it. If he has only been successful against bottom feeder RHs, that should be east to prove.

2007-07-18 10:47:52
60.   monkeypants
59 "easy to prove."
2007-07-18 10:50:38
61.   rilkefan
57 It's so surreal seeing these updates (thanks btw) from the minors. So Hughes forces out Igawa. Would people here put Joba in for Mussina in an ideal world?
2007-07-18 10:52:17
62.   Mattpat11
56 Manny is 0-1 against Myers this year. :)
2007-07-18 10:56:10
63.   Jim Dean
61 Well, I would have had Hughes in for Wright last year. Instead he pitched in the AA playoffs.

But worse I'll be terrified until we get there that Moose gets a p[ost-season start before Hughes even. One gets by on stuff, the other on junk. Meanwhile, Moose is signed for next year too.

2007-07-18 10:56:53
64.   Mattpat11
61 I think Mussina has the potential to still be very good for the Yankees. His numbers are pretty good over the last 9 games, and he's still Mike Mussina. I'd be willing to let Joba take more time in the minors in hopes that Mussina can finish strong, which I think is far more likely than Igawa pitching competently.
2007-07-18 10:56:54
65.   tommyl
59 Well Myers hasn't really gotten any lefties out this year ( > .400 OBP). I'm kinda working so I don't have the time to compile the numbers but I'm sure someone will shortly.

What precisely are you advocating? That Myers be used a long man only? He's clearly not good as a LOOGY.

2007-07-18 10:57:15
66.   rilkefan
Ok, I see that Myers's FIP is 5, and his component era is a whole run higher than his 2.6 ERA:
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankee_pitching_at_the_all_star_break

That suggests that he's been lucky, and strengthens tommyl's position.

2007-07-18 10:58:21
67.   monkeypants
61 If I ruled the universe, I would be tempted to try something like keep Joba and Mussina, and plan to pitch them both on the same day (5+4 or 4+4), probably starting Mussina and finishing with the younger pitcher.

It probably wouldn't work, but I would love to see some manager/FO try to run a pitching staff differently from the current conventional wisdom.

2007-07-18 10:58:34
68.   mehmattski
59 According to 35 and the following information from B-R.com, Myers has had success this season getting lefties out provided their names are not David Ortiz, Carl Crawford, or Todd Helton. The only two meaningful lefties he's gotten out this season are Grady Sizemore and Shawn Green.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/7QYy

2007-07-18 11:03:29
69.   monkeypants
66 Fair enough!

65 I wasn't really advocating anything in particular, just defending Meyers overall performance (while admitting his stinkiness as a LOOGY, a BP role that I think is vastly overrated anyway). I guess was making the case that he has pitched well enough to be a medium or low leverage middle reliever--not necessarily a long man per se. Farnsy would be out, Bruney or Viz or whoever would become the 8th inning guy, and the whole BP would adjust accordingly.

But seeing 66, I'm willing to concede that Meyers has been more lucky than good.

2007-07-18 11:06:03
70.   monkeypants
68 Oops, sorry I left out 35 before.
2007-07-18 11:06:17
71.   mehmattski
68 Here's the same report for 2006. Myers had some success with David Ortiz last year, holding him to that "expected results" benchmark rikefan is talking about. He had success against Sizemore as well, but not Crawford, Ryan Howard, Ben Broussard, or Garret Anderson. All people you would focus on when bringing in a LOOGY. The lefties he actually does get out regularly (Darrin Erstad, Shawn Green) are not the kind of lefties whom you specifically target as needing your LOOGY.
2007-07-18 11:06:23
72.   mehmattski
68 Here's the same report for 2006. Myers had some success with David Ortiz last year, holding him to that "expected results" benchmark rikefan is talking about. He had success against Sizemore as well, but not Crawford, Ryan Howard, Ben Broussard, or Garret Anderson. All people you would focus on when bringing in a LOOGY. The lefties he actually does get out regularly (Darrin Erstad, Shawn Green) are not the kind of lefties whom you specifically target as needing your LOOGY.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/rpzJ

2007-07-18 11:08:32
73.   williamnyy23
52 Farnsworth is a sunk cost, but there is always the possibility that the Yankees can deal him. If they cut him loose now, they are on the hook for the full cost of the contract. Even if they can't trade him until next year, that still affords them the opportunity to save some money.

55 I'd imagine it probably has something to do with the types of hitters he is facing in those situations. In close games, Myers gets the best lefties, but in blow outs, he is probably facing more below average righties. Regardless of what arm you use to throw, I'd imagine it is a lot easier facing bad righties than very good lefties.

Of course, it could just be that Myers happened to have excellent command in the longer outings that occurred in the blowouts, giving him more ABs to compile positive stats.

Regardless, Myers has not performed well in the role he has been assigned. Even if your lefty specialist can keep .950 OPS lefties to an .850 OPS, I'm not sure that makes him valuable. After all, don't you think a lefty like David Ortiz is compiling his numbers against a whole host of crappy righties (and lefties)?

A more apt comparison would be Myers' lefty OPSA versus the batters OPS against left handers. Shockingly, Ortiz OPS against lefties this year is .679, so if Myers is pitching him to a .850 OPS, he'd be failing miserably.

Even though this started as a Myers thread, I think the story behind Ortiz' split is really interesting. Could he be reverting to his early career platoon splits? If so, what has triggered the return? Injuries alone?

2007-07-18 11:18:52
74.   YankeeInMichigan
Back to last night's game:

It was refreshing to see Torre employ a strategy of rattling a young reliever through aggressive running. I wonder if he was considering squeeze (or double-steal) with Jeter at bat. I wonder whether fear of the squeeze (or double-steal) brought on the balk.

2007-07-18 11:19:18
75.   rilkefan
Nice work, mehmattski. I think we're into small statistics here, though.

72 "Ron Howard" - one triple in one AB - was this a single Matsui took a bad approach on?

73 "A more apt comparison would be Myers' lefty OPSA versus the batters OPS against left handers." - Sure, I was trying to advocate for that above with "ratio of ratios", which I guess is physicist-jargon.

2007-07-18 11:20:05
76.   YankeeInMichigan
Back to last night's game:

It was refreshing to see Torre employ a strategy of rattling a young reliever through aggressive running. I wonder if he was considering squeeze (or double-steal) with Jeter at bat. I wonder whether fear of the squeeze (or double-steal) brought on the balk.

2007-07-18 11:23:39
77.   YankeeInMichigan
For those of us who have been counting on Jesus Montero stepping into the catching role when Posada's supply of Fisk Potion finally runs out, here is a sobering report from Kevin Goldstein at BP (http://tinyurl.com/youh6c):

"Montero was one of the bigger names in last year's international signing period, putting on power displays in workouts that became the stuff of legend. On a pure power scale, Montero eclipses even Angel Villalona from last year's Latin American class, but he's not near the overall hitting talent of the Giants wunderkind. That's because of an all-or-nothing approach that will hamper his ability to hit for average down the road. The other issue is that it's hard to find anyone who thinks Montero will stay behind the plate for long. Already 225 pounds--and as one team official put it, "not in a good way"--Montero has first base/designated hitter written all over his future, where the bat will have to carry him."

2007-07-18 11:27:14
78.   YankeeInMichigan
72 Not to mention Curtis Granderson. I still consider that Game 1 homer to be the turning point of the series, since it through Torre off of his game plan. The next day, he let Moose pitch to Granderson in a similar situation. When that too failed, Joe spun into a button-pushing panic.
2007-07-18 11:28:29
79.   NetShrine
Alex B -

FYI, You've been "tagged" –

http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/07/tagged_1.html

Hope you don't mind – and will consider "playing along."

Regards, Steve

2007-07-18 11:43:36
80.   JL25and3
75 I agree about the small statistics. The chart above about Myers's performance by run differential also involved small sample sizes.

In fact, I'd suggest that, for most relievers, an entire season is still a pretty small sample size. Splits will almost always be unreliable.

2007-07-18 11:52:35
81.   tommyl
75 What type of physicist?

77 C'mon if Sal "I scream for ice cream" Fasano can squat, who knows ;).

2007-07-18 11:53:50
82.   cult of basebaal
Final line from Hughes' start down in AA today:

4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Nice extended write-up on it from Joseph P over at River Ave Blues, he thinks two more starts in the minors is likely before we see Hughes come up ...

2007-07-18 12:01:16
83.   rilkefan
81 High-energy expt. - a fair number of analyses are done in terms of ratios of ratios to eliminate systematics - http://icecube.wisc.edu/info/neutrinos/1990.php randomly.
2007-07-18 12:27:12
84.   yankz
Abreu batting 3rd: .262/.357/.388/.745 with 4 HR in 252 PA.

Batting 7th: .396/.446/.667/1.133 with 3 HR in 56 PA.

Melky batting 2nd: .381/.409/.451/.861 in 46 PA.

Batting 9th: .329/.354/.447/.801 in 82 PA.

I like the old lineup better, especially since Jeter is pretty much the same hitter batting 2nd or 3rd (.869 in the 2 hole vs. .845 3rd).

Damon's a True Leadoff Guy so there's no point posting those numbers.

2007-07-18 12:30:39
85.   Shaun P
Speaking of Joba . . .

"Chris ( S.I. N.Y.): Keith, Is Chamberlain as good as his #'s reflect so far in Trenton and is there any thought of the Yankees bringing him up this year to pitch the 8th inning and get rid of Farnsworth. He's terrible. Also what's Joba's Ceiling?

SportsNation Keith Law: I was at Joba's start on Saturday night in Trenton. He was 94-98 in the 7th inning, with a plus-plus slider, average change, and an inconsistent but occasionally plus curve. Fastball command is OK, control is at least average. He's a potential #1 starter, and I can't imagine the Yanks trade him, not even for Teixeira."

I am dreaming, clearly, but imagine a rotation next June with Wang, Hughes, Joba, Pettitte, and Moose. Moose might be the best 5th starter in baseball in that scenario.

And then imagine the Yanks going into a playoff series with those guys.

(Pardon me while I wipe the drool from my keyboard.)

2007-07-18 12:33:31
86.   tommyl
83 I've fallen asleep in enough experimental seminars to know that ;)
2007-07-18 12:47:44
87.   Shaun P
More Joba from Keith Law:

"JC, Winnipeg: Keith, asking more as a question of ideology vs specific case, but why wouldn't the Yanks trade Joba for Tex? Young proven masher in exchange for an unproven prospect? Sure pitching is always a hot commodity, but it's 50/50 whether he will actually pan out, and payroll isn't really an issue in the Bronx. Don't you take the sure thing every time?

SportsNation Keith Law: Because there are only a handful of #1 starters in the majors, and if you have a guy in your system who you think has a good chance to be one, you keep him. I'd trade Hughes before I'd trade Joba."

I'm not sure how to read that.

2007-07-18 12:48:30
88.   rilkefan
86 Probably not as many as the string theory talks I've nodded off in after the second slide.
2007-07-18 12:55:19
89.   rilkefan
87 "I'd trade Hughes before I'd trade Joba."

Maybe he means perceived_value(Hughes)/actual_value(Hughes) > perceived_value(Joba)/actual_value(Joba). Or anyway, Hughes is more likely to return good value in trade than Joba.

2007-07-18 12:58:38
90.   tommyl
88 Oooo body blow.
2007-07-18 13:12:48
91.   cult of basebaal
today's lineup:

Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Phillips 1B
Cabrera CF

seems like torre uses the same logic in filling out his lineup as he does managing the bullpen ...

2007-07-18 13:14:04
92.   tommyl
91 Would it be such a bad idea to say flip Damon and Cabrera?
2007-07-18 13:15:20
93.   cult of basebaal
92 well, in our rational world, no ... but to joe torre? obviously ...
2007-07-18 13:17:49
94.   cult of basebaal
here's what i would try for a few games

cabrera
cano
jeter
rodriguez
matsui
posada
abreu
phillips
damon

not sure about cano in the #2, but the rest of the lineup is pretty balanced and deep

2007-07-18 13:20:06
95.   tommyl
93 I'd still like to get his BP management away from "Pitcher X is the 8th inning guy" and onto "Pitcher X is my second highest leverage guy". If in the 7th inning you have Ortiz and Manny up, whereas in the 8th its Lugo and Crisp, which strategy makes more sense?

What's galling is that my little league coach realized this. We had two pitchers on the team (you were allowed to switch from inning to inning, but each couldn't pitch more than 3), myself and another guy. The other guy was better than I was, so he would tend to pitch to the top of the order, and I the bottom. It worked like magic.

2007-07-18 13:20:25
96.   Shaun P
91 92 Ah, lineup order doesn't matter that much. Given Damon still manages to draw so many walks, even while hurt, hitting him leadoff doesn't bother me.

That Damon's ass hasn't been on the DL for the last month and a half - now THAT bothers me.

2007-07-18 13:21:19
97.   tommyl
96 With an OBP below .350 he isn't drawing that many walks.
2007-07-18 13:25:55
98.   mehmattski
97 Yeah but look at his batting average the last few weeks. Since June 1 he's hitting .207/.312/.281, and since July 1 it's .176/.348/.196. So his on base percentage is almost entirely because of his walks. In July he's walking once every five plate appearances, which is pretty good.
2007-07-18 13:29:03
99.   monkeypants
Melky OBP = .335
Damon OBP = .330

Neither one excites the imagination as a lead-off hitter, though Melky seems to be on the rise right now, and Damon is, well, not on the DL.

2007-07-18 13:33:23
100.   monkeypants
100 Damon's OBP = .339, but the point is the same.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2007-07-18 13:35:14
101.   tommyl
100 But the trends are opposite. Damon is nosediving, Melky is surging. Take out say, April for the two, and what do you get?
2007-07-18 13:35:36
102.   monkeypants
100 Should reference 99, but I'm an idiot. Any yes, I do use the "Preview comment."

Mute point.

2007-07-18 13:37:20
103.   cult of basebaal
99 ummm, well, except for the fact that in comparing the two, you're not accounting for the fact that cabrera has been red hot recently and damon has been ice cold

here's melky's line for the last month (28 days, courtesy of b-ref)

.356 .392 .467

sure, you'd like the obp to be walk fatter, but i'd rather have that line getting a chance to hit (and be on base) in front of jeter, rodriguez and matsui, rather than being on in front of, well, johnny damon

2007-07-18 13:41:45
104.   monkeypants
101 Isn't that what I said in 99? But looking at the numbers, Melky's OBP has shot up even more than I had assumed:

Mar/Apr: .238
May: .338
June: .364
July: .414

2007-07-18 13:43:04
105.   JL25and3
103 Ah, so now we're buying into the "hot hand" theory of small sample size?
2007-07-18 13:43:42
106.   JL25and3
89 Precisely. And I even understood it, liberal arts major that I was.
2007-07-18 13:50:50
107.   JL25and3
95 I agree, of course, but you have to take it a step further: get rid of the whole idea of the Closer. Bottom of the 7th, Yankees up by one, none out, one on, Ortiz/Manny/Drew or Lowell or someone coming up. Never mind the ninth inning, the game is on the line right there. You bring in your best pitcher, trust him to get out of the jam, and let the other guys pitch later.

That's a vastly better use of resources than having Mo come in to start the ninth with a 3-run lead.

2007-07-18 13:50:59
108.   Count Zero
105 Ordinarily, no. But given that there appears to be a real cause and effect link here -- Melky plays every day = Melky becomes a much better hitter than he was in April -- I would agree that I would rather see Melky at the top of the order than the rapidly declining JD.

At this point, I don't really like seeing JD in the lineup at all except that until we actually add a bat (cough - Shelley - cough), the alternatives aren't really any better.

2007-07-18 13:53:01
109.   tommyl
103 A 4 month trend is hardly what I'd call small sample size. Melky has shown a steady improvement, Damon has shown basically a decline/flatlining.
2007-07-18 13:55:42
110.   tommyl
107 Totally agreed. Has anyone done a study where they look at a teams actual record vs. an expected one if the resources of the BP were used in the maixmally optimized sense? (I know this is in reality impossible, since you need hindsight to use it this way, but I'd still like to see the numbers). How many wins can it gain for you?
2007-07-18 13:58:56
111.   JL25and3
108 Yeah, I was having a little fun. Really, though, I think the point isn't that Damon's "cold," but that he's "hurt."
2007-07-18 14:04:25
112.   JL25and3
109 Well, this is one of the problems I have with baseball analysis these days (and I'm including myself). Unfortunately, we really have no idea what constitutes an adequate sample size. Does half a season tell us much of anything?
2007-07-18 14:06:51
113.   cult of basebaal
111 fair enough, sloppy choice of wording on my part
2007-07-18 14:08:45
114.   tommyl
112 Technically no. I recall somewhere in "The Book" they talk about what an adequate sample size is. Basically you just look at the standard deviation for a large collection of players as a function of PA or batters faced or whatnot. For relievers, even a full season isn't really an adequate sample most of the time. Still, you can try to make predictions. Saying Melky is 2 for his last 5 while Damon is 0 for his last 5 I wouldn't put much weight in. Now, saying that Melky has an OBP 100 points higher over his last 100 ABs (I'm making these numbers up) I'd be more likely to pay attention to.
2007-07-18 14:12:03
115.   JL25and3
110 That's the only case I can thinkof where managerial strategy is dictated by individual stats rather than by winning games.

It's really a perfect Torre situation: ninth inning, three-run lead, you bring in Rivera. You bring him in because it's a save situation, and you bring in Rivera in save situations, because he's the closer and the closer's job is to save games. You don't bring him in in the 7th inning, because your closer is for closing games. You bring in your 7th-inning guy. See how easy it is?

In this case, of course, it's not just Torre but every manager in the game. The stupid, inconsequential Save stat dictates the strategy.

What if they didn't cal him the "Closer" but simply the "Best Reliever?"

2007-07-18 14:15:03
116.   JL25and3
114 I'm glad someone has started to introduce some statistical rigor to the analysis. I'll have to look at it. (I questioned above whether a season was a good enough sample size for a reliever - which is why relievers are often inconsistent from year to year.)

Isn't this where we were last week?

2007-07-18 14:22:24
117.   JL25and3
107 Funny thing - I went to Tangotiger's site to see about The Book, and found this: http://tinyurl.com/ej3fv

Not exactly the study you're thinking of, but a start.

2007-07-18 14:30:18
118.   Shaun P
110 I believe Bill James has done a study along those lines, but while working for the Red Sox, so the whole thing is proprietary. But we kind of know the results, as re-aligning the bullpen as JL suggested in 107 is what the Sox tried to do at the start of the 2003 season.

Of course, then Grady and the bullpen pitchers themselves (along with the media and most of RSN) panicked because the bullpen blew a few games. So "defined roles" were set up, and then BK Kim was brought in to close, and the rest is history.

103 104 108 109 IIRC, "The Book" concluded that lineup construction doesn't amount to even a win's (ie 10 runs') worth of difference over the course of a year. Given half the season is already gone, and you'd have to fully optimize the lineup (like "The Book" guys describe) to get those ~5 runs, not just alter the leadoff spot, I'm really not worried.

For kicks, here's what the lineup optimizer tool David Pinto has at Baseball Musings says when you use season stats:

Lineup Yanks are using tonight: 5.655 Runs per game

Lineup Yanks are using tonight with Melky and Damon switched: 5.671 runs per game (gain of 0.016 runs)

Optimal lineup (ie scores most runs/game, at 5.797, or a gain of .143 runs/game):
Jeter
A-Rod
Phillips
Posada
Matsui
Melky
Abreu
Cano
Damon

Using the "just since May" (or whatever) numbers for Melky (.311/.369/.445) and Damon (.241/.336/.330):

Lineup tonight: 5.752
Tonight's lineup with Melky and Damon switched: 5.813 runs/game (a gain of .061 runs/game)

Optimal lineup, which scores 5.911 runs/game:

Jeter
A-Rod
Melky
Posada
Matsui
Phillips
Abreu
Cano
Damon

Have fun playing around with this thing if you want: http://tinyurl.com/2q8qum

2007-07-18 14:36:32
119.   tommyl
117 Its really a great book. Each chapter they go through and examine various tactical questions, things like, "when is a sac bunt useful?" "should you try to steal a base here?", "is a LOOGY worth it?" and give some nice quantitative answers. Several are surprising.
2007-07-18 14:38:38
120.   tommyl
118 Well, can we correlate that .143 runs per game with the number of times we see Kyle pitch? Maybe we can get him an insurance run every 10 games or so? ;)
2007-07-18 14:44:29
121.   JL25and3
If we lose tonight by a score of 3.142 to 3, it's definitely Torre's fault.
2007-07-18 14:48:53
122.   JL25and3
119 The bizarre thing is that the website (insidethebook.com) gives absolutely no indication how to go about buying the book.
2007-07-18 14:49:32
123.   tommyl
122 Amazon worked for me.
2007-07-18 14:52:25
124.   JL25and3
123 I tried searching for Tangotiger on Amazon. I came up with three other hits, but not that one.

I sent the writers an e-mail. That might work.

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