Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay both entered yesterday's game trying to get on track after a series of ugly outings. After the first inning, it looked like this just wasn't going to be their night. Pettitte threw 25 pitches in the top of the first, allowed a run on a single, a walk, and a Frank Thomas double, and was fortunate to strand runners on second and third. Halladay threw 28 pitches in the bottom of the first starting with a five-pitch walk to Johnny Damon, who moved to third on a pair of groundouts. With two outs, Alex Rodriguez drove Damon home with a single and the Yankees proceeded to load the bases only to strand all three men when Robinson Cano grounded out.
To recap, that's 53 pitches, seven base runners, and a 1-1 score after a single frame.
Pettitte threw another 23 pitches in the top of the second, but avoided giving up a run when Reed Johnson's two-out double near the line in left bound into the stands, forcing Royce Clayton, who had singled, to hold up at third. Pettitte then struck out Alex Rios to preserve the 1-1 tie.
Then everything changed. Halladay retired the Yankees in order in the second. Pettitte did the same to the Blue Jays in the third on just nine pitches, including a three-pitch strikeout of Thomas. Suddenly it was the top of the eighth and the scoreboard still read 1-1.
Halladay and Pettitte matched each other almost exactly:
Halladay - 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K, 112 pitches
Pettitte - 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K, 116 pitches
With Pettitte staring down 120 pitches, however, Joe Torre needed to bring in someone else to pitch the eighth. Luis Vizcaino would have been the obvious choice based on recent performance, but he had pitched in each of the last two games and in four of the last five. Scott Proctor pitched two innings on Monday and has allowed eight base runners in his last 2 2/3 innings. Ron Villone's last outing was a blown save. Edwar Ramirez hadn't pitched since before the All-Star break and remains an unknown quantity. Mariano Rivera, having closed each of the last three games and four of the last five, was not a candidate to go two innings. Mike Myers is a specialty guy whom Torre is now refusing to use even for that purpose (more on that below). That left supposed "eighth-inning guy" Kyle Farnsworth and Brian Bruney, both of whom were fully rested. Torre chose the wrong guy.
I doubt there was a Yankee fan watching who didn't assume the Blue Jays would take the lead when they saw Farnsworth taking his warmups in the top of the eighth. Indeed, Frank Thomas led off with a single. Toronto manager John Gibbons pinch-ran with Howie Clark, and Aaron Hill doubled Clark home to give Toronto a 2-1 lead.
It was actually a bit more interesting than that. Farnsworth, who made a wild throw to first in the 11th inning of a 1-1 game against the Angels just before the All-Star Break, yanked a pickoff throw past Andy Phillips to send Clark to second base. The best part is that Clark was standing on first base when Farnsworth threw over; he hadn't even taken his lead yet. Curiously, Lyle Overbay then lined out directly to Phillips, who was playing back because he didn't have to hold on Clark, but it was all rendered meaningless by Hill's RBI double.
The Yankees staged another two-out rally in the eighth against lefty reliever Scott Downs. Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada both singled to put the tying run on second base with two outs, but Downs threw Robinson Cano six straight looping curve balls, and Robinson missed badly at the first two and the last to end the inning.
Having burned through Farnsworth, Joe Torre then called on Brian Bruney in the ninth. Bruney retired the heart of the Blue Jay order (Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus) in order on 11 pitches, seven of them strikes. Here's hoping Joe noticed.
Andy Phillips, who had the game-winning hit in each of the previous two games, lead off the bottom of the ninth with a single against Jays closer Jeremy Accardo. Torre then pinch-ran for Phillips with Miguel Cairo, and Cairo stole second on a 1-0 count to Melky Cabrera to put the tying run in scoring position. Melky then attempted to bunt Cairo to third (as he should have), but bunted foul for strike two (he had purposely swung through the pitch on which Cairo stole second). Melky then followed that failed bunt attempt with a single through the hole into right field. Larry Bowa sent Cairo home as Alex Rios fired to the plate. Cairo slid to the outside of the plate as Gregg Zaun lept for Rios's throw. As Zaun came down with the ball, he collided with Cairo, who was reaching in for the bag. Having received a hip-check to the head, Cairo was stopped cold and tagged out. Had Cairo headed directly for the plate, he would have been safe easily, but there was no way for him to anticipate that the play would unfold as it did.
Fortunately, Melky moved to second on the play, so, after all of that, the Yankees still had the tying run in scoring position with one out. With a 2-1 count on Johnny Damon, Cabrera stole third as Accardo appeared to have forgotten about him. Accardo then walked Damon and, as Cabrera and Damon danced of third and first respectively, Accardo came set, bent his back knee, and stepped off the rubber, balking home the tying run. Suddenly the Yankees had the winning run on second with one out, but Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu, who were a combined 0-for-10 in the game, both grounded out to push the game into extra innings.
Called in for emergency duty, Luis Vizcaino, despite missing a few miles per hour off his fastball, pitched around a one-out single to send the 2-2 tie to the bottom of the tenth. Casey Janssen, in for Accardo, opened the inning by plunking Alex Rodriguez on the elbow pad with a 0-1 pitch. Janssen then threw a 2-2 pitch to Hideki Matsui in the dirt and Rodriguez alertly moved to second as the ball squirted into fair territory and Zaun stumbled attempting to corral it. Earlier in that at-bat, Matsui missed a game-winning home run by mere feet, pulling a ball about three seats foul into the front row of the upper deck in left. Janssen rallied to strike out Matsui on a bad pitch up in the zone that was such a miss that it fooled Matsui completely. With first base open, the Gibbons then walked Jorge Posada to pitch to Robinson Cano, who had twice failed to deliver the hit that could have made the difference in the game, leaving five men on base in the process. This time, Cano laced Janssen's first pitch into the corner in deep left, plating Rodriguez and winning the game, 3-2 in ten innings.
It was a great win for the Yankees, and puts them in a great position as most had assumed that with Kei Igawa starting for the Yankees on Monday and Roy Halladay starting for the Blue Jays last night, the Yankees would lose at least one of those games. The game also comes with a lesson.
After Farnsworth allowed the go-ahead run in the eighth, Gibbons pinch-hit with lefty Matt Stairs. Rather than countering with LOOGY Mike Myers, Torre elected to intentionally walk Stairs with first base open and two outs. The move worked. It was also the second time in two days that Torre opted not to bring in Myers to face Stairs with a man in scoring position and two outs, preferring instead to stick with a righty pitcher who had already allowed a run in that game. It worked both times, in fact. With that, Mike Myers, against whom lefties are hitting .327/.406/.473 this season, has officially become dead weight. With Farnsworth and Proctor struggling and Torre threatening to pitch Vizcaino's arm off as he appeared to have done in April, the Yankees need to cut Myers loose (just as they did Mike Stanton and Paul Quantrill two years ago), and bring up Chris Britton, who has allowed just two base runners in his five major league innings this year, had a 3.35 ERA in 52 major league games last year, and has posted the following line in triple-A this year: 2.45 ERA, 44 IP, 40 H, 2 HR, 12 BB, 48 K, 3-1, 8 SV.
At the very least, Myers, not Edwar Ramirez, should be the pitcher taken off the roster when Matt DeSalvo is called up for his spot start on Saturday. Ramirez, meanwhile, should be given a chance to contribute and, if he struggles, should be replaced by Britton. Myers is cheap (he's making $1.25 million this season, which means the Yankees owe him less than a million bucks over the remainder of the season) and, in addition to Ron Villone, the Yankees have lefties Sean Henn, Ben Kozlowski, and Charlie Manning all pitching well in relief for Scranton should they feel the need for a specialist. The Yankees need better relief pitching, but they have the talent on hand to improve their pen. The problem is that the best relievers in the system aren't necessarily the men in the major league pen. Deleting Myers and shifting responsibility from Farnsworth and Proctor to Vizcaino (which seemingly has been done), Bruney, and possibly either Britton or Ramirez could completely change the Yankees late-inning outlook for the better.
"Here's hoping Joe noticed."- I'm not feeling too lucky.
I suspect this is misleading. What is the OPS of the lefties he has faced? Even the right-split of those batters? Last I saw Myers had 7 RSAA.
Girardi and Singleton took it a step further and called Farnswacker's errant throw to first before it happened.
Kyle ditched his spectacles, but it was Torre who was flying blind.
Girardi observed that the Jays are not a team that runs, while Singleton suggested Farns should remain focused on the batter... d'oh!
I have a softspot in my heart for Farnswacker, I mean, the guy's not trying to f-up, took less money to come here, and all that -- but the big palooka has the baseball IQ of, I dunno, Danny Bonaduce.
Until they trade him, I'll keep rooting for him, but Joe has to recognize that Rivera and Bruney are his Gossage and Tidrow, the only relievers he can rely on in close games.
Farnswacker and Proctor are 7th and 8th inning losses waiting to happen.
- Am I mistaken or did Joe yell "Cookie!" at Posada before they intentionally walked Stairs? I don't think I've ever heard an intentional walk referred to as a cookie.
Is DeSalvo truly our best option for the doubleheader? I guess recent evidence suggests otherwise but I prefer Clippard.
Go to Edwar! Free Britton! Cut Myers! Sounds like a fine idea, Cliff.
Yanks use stats to find a gem
posted: Tuesday, July 17, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
Fellow Travelers, we have a new catchphrase: "Statistics found him."
It will forever be associated with Yankees reliever Edwar Ramirez, but Billy Eppler deserves the lion's share of the credit, for both the catchphrase and for Ramirez's being a Yankee. I hope you'll pardon the long extract, but the Newark Star-Ledger's Ed Price tells this story so well...(http://tinyurl.com/2ja5z4)
NEW YORK -- If anyone deserves credit for the Yankees' discovery of Edwar Ramirez, it's a computer.
"Statistics found him," Billy Eppler, the team's director of professional scouting, said yesterday.
Ramirez has pitched twice since his July 1 promotion to the Yankees, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA.
It was early July last year when the Yankees needed a reliever to fill out their roster at Class A Tampa.
While Eppler looked for players who had been recently released by other organizations, Troy Caradonna -- the assistant director of baseball operations in the team's Tampa offices -- checked statistics of the independent leagues.
Caradonna found Ramirez in the United League: 1.07 ERA, 46 strikeouts and 10 walks in 25 1/3 innings for Edinburg (Texas).
"We didn't send anybody in to look," Eppler said. "I looked at a few old reports, didn't see anything [negative], and made a couple of phone calls checking on [mental] makeup."
People from the Los Angeles Angels, who had released Ramirez twice, didn't bring up any red flags. Nor did his injury history. So the Yankees signed him, paying the United League in the range of $1,500 to $3,000.
What the Yankees never found out until they got Ramirez is that he had taught himself a wicked changeup while he was out of baseball in 2004. He pitched in 19 games for Tampa, going 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA, 47 strikeouts and six walks in 30 2/3 innings.
That was last season. This season, Ramirez's numbers in the minors were simply phenomenal. With Double-A Trenton, he struck out 33 batters in 16 innings. With Triple-A Scranton, he struck out 47 batters in 27 innings. Now he's in the majors, and he's struck out four batters in two innings. In his debut he struck out three straight Twins, all with that nasty changeup.
For all the talk about the Yankees' financial advantage, it's worth mentioning that any other team in baseball could have picked up Ramirez. If only they'd let the statistics do their work for them."
FWIW, Myers' WXRL is -.480, good for 550th out of 581 MLB pitchers. Time for him to go.
I know my "Cash bash" doesn't give me credibility on these fronts, but I have a hard time imagining him behind these moves. The spending outlay is so small that it seems there's really no need for him to be involved. Indeed, it would probably would have taken more money to send a scout (airfare and hotel) than it did to just pay the league. Would this then fall under Oppenheimer or Newman then?
Other teams have similar successes (Jenks comes to mind) but it's good to see the Yanks competing on all fronts (draft, international, Rule 5, independent leagues). Cashman does deserve some of that credit (yup, I just said it). The only area they've really gotten screwed up is in free agency.
Bottom 2, One out, Runner on first: Melky bunts back to the pitcher. WPA: -0.017.
Bottom 5, One out, none on: Melky singles to center. WPA: 0.035
Bottom 7, One out, Runner on first: Melky singles to center. WPA: 0.054
Bottom 9, No outs, Runner on second; down 2-1: Melky singles to right, Cairo out at the plate. WPA: -0.167.
So despite going 3 for 4, Melky had a negative WPA because of a player gunned down on the basepaths. This, to me, seems like a huge flaw in WPA for hitters. It is not a hitters' fault if a baserunner (or in this case, third base coach) makes a blunder that costs the team a chance to win the game.
0 Roster moves . . . (this is long, sorry.)
DeSalvo needs a spot. Igawa can't be sent down; Hughes won't be ready the next time the Yanks need a 5th starter (July 26th at KC; Hughes's next rehab start is July 23rd). So Myers is almost certainly gone. DeSalvo takes his spot on the 25-man, pitches the first game, then gets sent down, dropping the pitchers to 12. But what "bat" gets called up?
Shelley Duncan is the obvious (long overdue) choice, but he isn't on the 40-man. He could take Myers's spot, but then Hughes needs a spot too.
This is where it gets tricky. Is room made by a trade? Does Villone follow Myers out? Does Kevin Reese or Colter Bean get removed? I don't know.
And that's not all. Karstens needs a 40-man spot too. So does Rasner (if he's back before the season ends). (I'm ignoring Veras and Sanchez for now, 'cuz they'll be added after the season ends.)
But who else could they bring up besides Duncan? Reese and Basak (the only AAA hitters on the 40-man) aren't "bats". Sardinha just got demoted to AA. The Attorney General isn't a "bat". That leaves . . . Juan Miranda?
However they figure this out, I guess I expect to see Shelley Duncan in pinstripes on Sunday.
16 If Myers survives the next roster move I'll be shocked...and then angered. I'm sure not having a roster spot is costing Duncan a shot with the big club, but there really is no reason not to move Colter Bean off. I see no point in having a 30-year old minor league reliever that you never intend to use.
Also, do the Yankees already have a full 40-man? The list on the left seems to only have 38.
Regardless, maybe the Yankees could put Igawa on waivers with the intention of taking him off the 40-man and sending him to the minors. He'll serve no use once Karstens and Hughes come off and would be better served down in the minors anyway. I think I might make that move right now...I'd much rather have Hughes and Karstens form a tag-team starter (3+ innings a piece) right now instead of wasting pitches rehabbing the minors.
19 karstens is not good.
Note on yesterday's game, the Yanks tried to bunt a few times and both times they failed miserably. If they are going to use the bunt as a tool to eke across one run, then shouldn't they know how to bunt???
Who gets the blame for this? The hitting coach? How does Andy Phillips a career minor leaguer not know how to bunt?
Show me the stats.
24 If you argument is that Torre won't use Myers full stop, and we don't anyway need a reliever with 7 RSAA (either because he's good or because he has faced the bottom of the order when not pitching to the elite lefties of the league), then fine.
.327/.406/.473
to quote Cliff above. He's allowing over 40% of them to reach base. Isn't that bad?
Barry Bonds: 33 PA, .320/.485/.520 1 HR
Shawn Green: 23 PA, .222/.391/.278 0 HR
Todd Helton: 20 PA, .286/.500/.357 0 HR
Ryan Klesko: 20 PA, .200/.400/.600 2 HR
Carl Crawford: 19 PA, .333/.368/.722 1 HR
David Ortiz: 18 PA, .313/.333/.563 1 HR
Rafael Palmeiro: 18 PA, .333/.389/.400 0 HR
Ken Griffey Jr: 17 PA, .294/.294/.529 1 HR
This season, David Ortiz is 3 for 5 against him with a double and a strikeout in 6 PA. Carl Crawford is 3 for 4 with a homer. Todd Helton singled and walked in two plate appearances.
However Myers has done a good job of getting out: Darrin Erstad, Tom Glavine, Endy Chavez, David Dellucci, Dave Roberts, and Lyle Overbay...
Tyler Kepner of the New York Times reports that the MRI on Dellin Betances' elbow did not find any structural damage.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/sports/baseball/18pins.html
"The Yankees were relieved to learn yesterday that Dellin Betances, one of their top pitching prospects, has only inflammation in his right elbow. Betances, 19, left his start on Sunday for Class A Staten Island after three innings because of elbow stiffness, and his velocity dropped from 94 or 95 miles an hour to 90 or 91."
http://tinyurl.com/23erpj
Does anyone know what these ratings are based on? Are these Stat based? Are they position adjusted?
For the Stat heads here, there are some really weird numbers, such as Posada ranking at (51).
Comments?
Basically, I'm saying that there are currently some very expendable pieces of the 40 man roster, so the team shouldn't (in my opinion) feel hamstrung by it.
One other thought. If the team was REALLY ballsy, they would drop Nieves and go with only one catcher for one of teh games of the DH, which could open up a roster spot w/o affecting the BP at all. Nieves goes down for 10 days, and after De Salvo is sent back down (one game), the equally awful AAA C can replace Nieves.
Tie Game – OPS =1.158 (9 PA)
Within 1 R – OPS =1.425 (21 PA
Within 2 R – OPS =1.034 (39 PA)
Within 3 R – OPS =1.004 (48 PA)
Within 4 R – OPS = 0.837 (70 PA)
Margin > 4 R – OPS = .551 (63 PA)
For whatever reason, Myers pitches much better as the game becomes increasingly irrelevant. Needless to say, he has not performed any role other than mop man well for this team and therefore doesn't deserve a roster spot (I'd keep him over Kyle if not for the salary discrepancy).
Anyway, I can't stick around and argue low-stats significance, have to shuffle off to the lab.
Compare this with Farnsworth, who is the set-up guy, but won't pitch on consecutive days, pitch consecutive innings, or come in to pitch in the middle of an inning. And that's without even getting to the fact that in the few selected conditions when the delicate flower can pitch, he has totally failed to do his job.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2897967
RBIs? Team win percentage? Ick.
Me, I'd rather see one of the first three. Now if Myers was lights out against elite lefties that would be a different story, because then he's valuable. But he's not, so carrying him as a LOOGY makes no sense.
Moreover, while failing at being a LOOGY, Meyers has been a fairly effective reliever this year, especially when compared to Farnsworth:
Meyers: ERA 2.87, G 42, INN 31.1, K 14, BB 12, HR 3 WHIP 1.28
Farnsworth: ERA 4.46, G 41, INN 38.1, K 19, BB 24, HR 4, WHIP 1.64
Except for innings pitched, Meyers either equals or betters Farnsworth across the board. Wiliamnyy23 42 said that he would keep Meyers over Farnsy if not for salary. I disagree, salary is a sunk cost. I would keep Meyers over Farnsy right now, hands down. But I would not use Meyers as a LOOGY, but instead use him as the sort of mediocre middle reliever that every team carries.
So would I. But that's not going to happen. Except for the emergencies early in the year, Torre has shown he's not going to use Meyers other than the method indicated on his label. Though, for me, I don't really care who goes, and I'd rather Meyers AND Farns go, and my theory is that even as shitty as they are, they're still two relievers and is should be able to net the Philly's BUC.
That's the mirror of my argument about his performance against lefties. And if in fact his 7 RSAA were compiled by facing on-average mediocre batters, and his OPS_against for lefties is bad relative to the expected performance against those he's faced (and that comparison is statistically significant), then fine, let's give Henn and his small-sample 4.66 ERA/-1 RSAA a shot. I'd like to see the relevant numbers, that's all.
And the same numbers for Vizcaino and Villone, for that matter.
I am not arguing wth you position per se. But according to the stats, Meyers has been an effective reliever this year, albeit seemingly not in his original role. If the surface supporting evidence for his effectiveness (ERA, WHIP) is in some ways masking the "real story", there should be some numbers to support it. If he has only been successful against bottom feeder RHs, that should be east to prove.
But worse I'll be terrified until we get there that Moose gets a p[ost-season start before Hughes even. One gets by on stuff, the other on junk. Meanwhile, Moose is signed for next year too.
What precisely are you advocating? That Myers be used a long man only? He's clearly not good as a LOOGY.
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/yankee_pitching_at_the_all_star_break
That suggests that he's been lucky, and strengthens tommyl's position.
It probably wouldn't work, but I would love to see some manager/FO try to run a pitching staff differently from the current conventional wisdom.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/7QYy
65 I wasn't really advocating anything in particular, just defending Meyers overall performance (while admitting his stinkiness as a LOOGY, a BP role that I think is vastly overrated anyway). I guess was making the case that he has pitched well enough to be a medium or low leverage middle reliever--not necessarily a long man per se. Farnsy would be out, Bruney or Viz or whoever would become the 8th inning guy, and the whole BP would adjust accordingly.
But seeing 66, I'm willing to concede that Meyers has been more lucky than good.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/rpzJ
55 I'd imagine it probably has something to do with the types of hitters he is facing in those situations. In close games, Myers gets the best lefties, but in blow outs, he is probably facing more below average righties. Regardless of what arm you use to throw, I'd imagine it is a lot easier facing bad righties than very good lefties.
Of course, it could just be that Myers happened to have excellent command in the longer outings that occurred in the blowouts, giving him more ABs to compile positive stats.
Regardless, Myers has not performed well in the role he has been assigned. Even if your lefty specialist can keep .950 OPS lefties to an .850 OPS, I'm not sure that makes him valuable. After all, don't you think a lefty like David Ortiz is compiling his numbers against a whole host of crappy righties (and lefties)?
A more apt comparison would be Myers' lefty OPSA versus the batters OPS against left handers. Shockingly, Ortiz OPS against lefties this year is .679, so if Myers is pitching him to a .850 OPS, he'd be failing miserably.
Even though this started as a Myers thread, I think the story behind Ortiz' split is really interesting. Could he be reverting to his early career platoon splits? If so, what has triggered the return? Injuries alone?
It was refreshing to see Torre employ a strategy of rattling a young reliever through aggressive running. I wonder if he was considering squeeze (or double-steal) with Jeter at bat. I wonder whether fear of the squeeze (or double-steal) brought on the balk.
72 "Ron Howard" - one triple in one AB - was this a single Matsui took a bad approach on?
73 "A more apt comparison would be Myers' lefty OPSA versus the batters OPS against left handers." - Sure, I was trying to advocate for that above with "ratio of ratios", which I guess is physicist-jargon.
It was refreshing to see Torre employ a strategy of rattling a young reliever through aggressive running. I wonder if he was considering squeeze (or double-steal) with Jeter at bat. I wonder whether fear of the squeeze (or double-steal) brought on the balk.
"Montero was one of the bigger names in last year's international signing period, putting on power displays in workouts that became the stuff of legend. On a pure power scale, Montero eclipses even Angel Villalona from last year's Latin American class, but he's not near the overall hitting talent of the Giants wunderkind. That's because of an all-or-nothing approach that will hamper his ability to hit for average down the road. The other issue is that it's hard to find anyone who thinks Montero will stay behind the plate for long. Already 225 pounds--and as one team official put it, "not in a good way"--Montero has first base/designated hitter written all over his future, where the bat will have to carry him."
FYI, You've been "tagged" –
http://www.waswatching.com/archives/2007/07/tagged_1.html
Hope you don't mind – and will consider "playing along."
Regards, Steve
In fact, I'd suggest that, for most relievers, an entire season is still a pretty small sample size. Splits will almost always be unreliable.
77 C'mon if Sal "I scream for ice cream" Fasano can squat, who knows ;).
4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Nice extended write-up on it from Joseph P over at River Ave Blues, he thinks two more starts in the minors is likely before we see Hughes come up ...
Batting 7th: .396/.446/.667/1.133 with 3 HR in 56 PA.
Melky batting 2nd: .381/.409/.451/.861 in 46 PA.
Batting 9th: .329/.354/.447/.801 in 82 PA.
I like the old lineup better, especially since Jeter is pretty much the same hitter batting 2nd or 3rd (.869 in the 2 hole vs. .845 3rd).
Damon's a True Leadoff Guy so there's no point posting those numbers.
"Chris ( S.I. N.Y.): Keith, Is Chamberlain as good as his #'s reflect so far in Trenton and is there any thought of the Yankees bringing him up this year to pitch the 8th inning and get rid of Farnsworth. He's terrible. Also what's Joba's Ceiling?
SportsNation Keith Law: I was at Joba's start on Saturday night in Trenton. He was 94-98 in the 7th inning, with a plus-plus slider, average change, and an inconsistent but occasionally plus curve. Fastball command is OK, control is at least average. He's a potential #1 starter, and I can't imagine the Yanks trade him, not even for Teixeira."
I am dreaming, clearly, but imagine a rotation next June with Wang, Hughes, Joba, Pettitte, and Moose. Moose might be the best 5th starter in baseball in that scenario.
And then imagine the Yanks going into a playoff series with those guys.
(Pardon me while I wipe the drool from my keyboard.)
"JC, Winnipeg: Keith, asking more as a question of ideology vs specific case, but why wouldn't the Yanks trade Joba for Tex? Young proven masher in exchange for an unproven prospect? Sure pitching is always a hot commodity, but it's 50/50 whether he will actually pan out, and payroll isn't really an issue in the Bronx. Don't you take the sure thing every time?
SportsNation Keith Law: Because there are only a handful of #1 starters in the majors, and if you have a guy in your system who you think has a good chance to be one, you keep him. I'd trade Hughes before I'd trade Joba."
I'm not sure how to read that.
Maybe he means perceived_value(Hughes)/actual_value(Hughes) > perceived_value(Joba)/actual_value(Joba). Or anyway, Hughes is more likely to return good value in trade than Joba.
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Cano 2B
Phillips 1B
Cabrera CF
seems like torre uses the same logic in filling out his lineup as he does managing the bullpen ...
cabrera
cano
jeter
rodriguez
matsui
posada
abreu
phillips
damon
not sure about cano in the #2, but the rest of the lineup is pretty balanced and deep
What's galling is that my little league coach realized this. We had two pitchers on the team (you were allowed to switch from inning to inning, but each couldn't pitch more than 3), myself and another guy. The other guy was better than I was, so he would tend to pitch to the top of the order, and I the bottom. It worked like magic.
That Damon's ass hasn't been on the DL for the last month and a half - now THAT bothers me.
Damon OBP = .330
Neither one excites the imagination as a lead-off hitter, though Melky seems to be on the rise right now, and Damon is, well, not on the DL.
Mute point.
here's melky's line for the last month (28 days, courtesy of b-ref)
.356 .392 .467
sure, you'd like the obp to be walk fatter, but i'd rather have that line getting a chance to hit (and be on base) in front of jeter, rodriguez and matsui, rather than being on in front of, well, johnny damon
Mar/Apr: .238
May: .338
June: .364
July: .414
That's a vastly better use of resources than having Mo come in to start the ninth with a 3-run lead.
At this point, I don't really like seeing JD in the lineup at all except that until we actually add a bat (cough - Shelley - cough), the alternatives aren't really any better.
It's really a perfect Torre situation: ninth inning, three-run lead, you bring in Rivera. You bring him in because it's a save situation, and you bring in Rivera in save situations, because he's the closer and the closer's job is to save games. You don't bring him in in the 7th inning, because your closer is for closing games. You bring in your 7th-inning guy. See how easy it is?
In this case, of course, it's not just Torre but every manager in the game. The stupid, inconsequential Save stat dictates the strategy.
What if they didn't cal him the "Closer" but simply the "Best Reliever?"
Isn't this where we were last week?
Not exactly the study you're thinking of, but a start.
Of course, then Grady and the bullpen pitchers themselves (along with the media and most of RSN) panicked because the bullpen blew a few games. So "defined roles" were set up, and then BK Kim was brought in to close, and the rest is history.
103 104 108 109 IIRC, "The Book" concluded that lineup construction doesn't amount to even a win's (ie 10 runs') worth of difference over the course of a year. Given half the season is already gone, and you'd have to fully optimize the lineup (like "The Book" guys describe) to get those ~5 runs, not just alter the leadoff spot, I'm really not worried.
For kicks, here's what the lineup optimizer tool David Pinto has at Baseball Musings says when you use season stats:
Lineup Yanks are using tonight: 5.655 Runs per game
Lineup Yanks are using tonight with Melky and Damon switched: 5.671 runs per game (gain of 0.016 runs)
Optimal lineup (ie scores most runs/game, at 5.797, or a gain of .143 runs/game):
Jeter
A-Rod
Phillips
Posada
Matsui
Melky
Abreu
Cano
Damon
Using the "just since May" (or whatever) numbers for Melky (.311/.369/.445) and Damon (.241/.336/.330):
Lineup tonight: 5.752
Tonight's lineup with Melky and Damon switched: 5.813 runs/game (a gain of .061 runs/game)
Optimal lineup, which scores 5.911 runs/game:
Jeter
A-Rod
Melky
Posada
Matsui
Phillips
Abreu
Cano
Damon
Have fun playing around with this thing if you want: http://tinyurl.com/2q8qum
I sent the writers an e-mail. That might work.
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