Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees lost the finale of their weekend series in San Francisco before they even took the field. Following a brutal extra-inning loss on Saturday, Joe Torre posted a lineup without Jorge Posada or Bobby Abreu, with Miguel Cairo playing first and batting second, and Kevin Thompson, Wil Nieves, and Mike Mussina comprising the final third of the order. Meanwhile the Yankee bench featured Andy Phillips and Chris Basak, two men who had combined for seven major league plate appearances this season, all of them Phillips', and Johnny Damon, who has added a broken dental crown to all of the other aches and pains keeping him out of the lineup. This with the team's fourth-best starter on the mound in the person of Mike Mussina, most of the bullpen used up in that extra-inning loss, and starting shortstop Derek Jeter nursing a strained hip flexor that forced him to leave Saturday's game early.
To his credit, Mussina kept things close, but the Yankee offense just couldn't be found. Giants' starter Noah Lowry held the Yankees to one hit through five innings (though he did walk four) as the Giants took a 3-0 lead on Moose. Mussina and his personal catcher Nieves, meanwhile, were giving up stolen bases left and right (a total of five including steals by 40-somethings Barry Bonds and Omar Vizquel and first baseman Ryan Klesko), and Moose was done after having thrown 104 pitches in just five frames.
Chris Basak made his first major league plate appearance leading off the sixth for Mussina and lined out hard to Barry Bonds in left. Basak ran hard out of the box with his head down and somehow arrived at second base under the impression that he'd stroked a double into the corner. Basak stood proudly on the bag removing his batting gloves until Larry Bowa was able to signal to him to head back to the dugout.
Following Basak in the sixth, Melky walked, Cairo singled him to third, and Derek Jeter (whose hip appears to be fine) worked back from 0-2 to draw a full-count walk and load the bases for Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez fouled off Lowry's first offering, took strike two and ball one, then fouled off seven straight pitches in what would prove to be an 11-pitch at-bat only to hit a double-play grounder to short that he fortunately beat out to allow the first Yankee run to score. That exhausting at-bat drove Lowry from the game, but did little to benefit the Yankees as reliever Jonathan Sanchez got Hideki Matsui to ground out to end the threat.
Brian Bruney needed help from Luis Vizcaino to get through a scoreless sixth, so Joe Torre turned to Roger Clemens in the seventh. Torre is to be commended for his willingness to use his starters out of the pen on their throw days this year, having used Andy Pettitte for a pair of scoreless relief innings earlier in the season. Clemens didn't fair quite as well in what was just the second relief appearance of his 24-year-career, the last coming midway through his rookie season in 1984 (giving Clemens the longest gap between relief outings in major league history, shattering Steve Carlton's 16-year record). Clemens rallied from a 3-1 count to strike out leadoff man Ray Durham, but, in a dud of a legendary showdown, walked Barry Bonds on five pitches (though ball three looked like a strike to everyone including Bonds). Clemens then gave up a single to Ryan Klesko and a sac fly before getting Pedro Feliz to fly out to end the inning.
With Clemens having surrendered the Yankees' lone run back to the Giants, and the defanged top of the Yankee order having gone down in order in the top of the eighth, things got embarrassing in the bottom of the eighth inning. Kyle Farnsworth came on and got backup catcher Guillermo Rodriguez to fly out on his first pitch, but after Luis Figueroa singled, Derek Jeter booted a double play ball off the bat of Randy Winn and retired no one. Omar Vizquel then singled up the middle and Melky booted the ball allowing Figueroa to score and Winn to go to third. Ray Durham then hit a high fly to Cabrera in deep center that Melky lost in the sun for a two-run double. In Melky's defense, Winn did the same thing on an Alex Rodriguez fly in the ninth that lead to a meaningless second Yankee run. Still, that three-run San Francisco eighth just felt right in a game in which the Yankees played like the walking dead.
And so the Yanks return to the east coast having gone 1-5 in the interleague portion of their road trip to slip back below .500. One wonders how long we have to wait for Brian Cashman to pull a Kenny Williams. Not that Cash has to go make a splashy trade, but the fact that the Yankees played without the DH for six games with Damon and Basak on their bench was an act of extreme negligence and stupidity on the part of the Yankee decision makers. Getting a healthy body in for Damon (who, in his defense, delivered a pinch-hit single in the seventh, stole second and went to third on the catcher's throwing error--of course, he then failed to score from third on a groundout to first and didn't go out to play the field), swapping out Basak for a player who could add some punch to the 1B/DH situation (donde esta Josh Phelps? Or even Shelley Duncan), and replacing Wil Nieves with anyone or anything (come back Sal Fasano, all is forgiventhat Josh Phelps and Ryan Doumit are now teammates is not) are all moves that need to happen now. Damon has made just one start in the past week and only started four of the six games prior to that. His hit yesterday was also his first since the previous Sunday. Basak has appeared in three games since being called up twenty days ago, in two of them he was a defensive sub who never came to bat and in the third he was a pinch-hitter who never played the field. Nieves, meanwhile, has been on the roster all season, that's nearly three months, and is hitting .111 with a .149 on-base percentage and no extra base hits.
Even if satisfactory replacements are found for those three, the Yankees will need to add an extra bat sometime this summer. With Giambi out indefinitely, Damon consistently hurt and struggling to produce or even play, and the first base situation not only lacking entering the season, but with both halves of the unsatisfactory opening day platoon now either gone (Phelps) or out with a long term injury (Mientkiewicz), the Yankees have no one to play at first base or DH. No one. Melky Cabrera is thriving in center field (hitting .313/.358/.470 since May 30), but the Miguel Cairo joyride is over (he's 3 for his last 15), and the team doesn't have the time to wait around to see if Andy Phillips can finally deliver on his triple-A promise at the age of 30. That said, the Yankees would be better off missing the playoffs than sending the wrong pitching prospect to Texas for Mark Teixeira or, worse, sending the same hurler elsewhere for a lesser player. As things stand now, however, the Yankees aren't going to do better until they get better.
The GM seems to have this pathetic aversion to giving up anything he values in a trade. So he didn't deal Pavano after season 1, no youngsters of significance since the Vazquez deal, nor even a in-season deal of veteran spare bits. Thus we've seen plenty of waiver wire deals and Chacon-for-Wilson variety.
If the Yanks are going to make any upgrades now, Cashman is going to have to swallow hard and give up something to get something. I just don't see that happening.
And please please please bring up Omir Santos and send down Nieves. Isn't that what is supposed to happen when you are hitting .116 in late June - you get sent down? My touchstone for weak hitting major leaguers is Oriole SS Mark Belanger and he never managed worse than .158. Chone Figgins had more hits last Monday than Nieves has in 19 games. I beg of you, Brian Cashman, please try somebody new from the minor leagues. I don't care if you have to activate Rick Cerone - make a change.
Who knew the Yanks would miss Sal Fasano and Aaron Guiel? This team is...not good.
Like they said in the good old days, there is always next year.
Don't trade the kids. Bring them up.
It's like one step forward...SIX steps back!
:::grumble:::grumble!!!:::
All that said...I have resigned myself to a short season. Because the alternative is worse -- i.e., we try to fix these holes in July by trading away Hughes and or Joba before the deadline. I really don't care about losing Clippard or Chase Wright. But please, please, please God -- do not trade away Hughes, Joba or Tabata!
They're done. They're not catching Cleveland in this race. Hard to tell who is more disappointing this season -- the Yanks or the White Sox (who will soon be bolstering the Red Sox even further by giving away Buehrle).
Who's going to the Pythagorean victory parade?
14 I don't know what it is about Cano, but the way he plays seems to be a microcosm of what's wrong with the Yankees - he just looks completely nonchalant & lazy out there, but could probably give two sh*ts because he knows he's not going anywhere under this GM...
Cano - 15 HR last year with 6wks on DL - 3HR
Jeter - 19 HRs five times - 5 HR
Damon - 24 HR last year - 4 HR; physically unable to perform
Giambi - on DL
First Base - no power
Nieves - for reasons only known to Torre, not only on roster, but starts every 5th game.
BTW, the DH remains a great rule change. All of the "strategy" associated with not having a DH is not actually "strategy" (nor is it in any way complicated or interesting), but has to do with working around asking a particular group of players, who are specialists, to do what they are unable to do at a ML level.
I was listening to the Giants broadcast on XM and they were using the gap in relief appearances in such a way to suggest that pitching in relief was something that Roger had never done since his rookie year. They were saying things like "Clemens is doing something he hasn't done in over two decades" and "Roger is taking the mound in relief for only the second time in his illustrious career". It just seemed to me that those guys should have at least mentioned the fact that he pitched in relief a couple of years ago in the playoffs.
Looking ahead, the big decisions are going to be whether or not to keep 35-year old Posada (who will probably get a 3-year offer from a team like the Angels) and 37-year old Rivera. And, of course, do they sign A-Rod to a 7-year, $200 million extension?
Should the Yankees start playing Posada at 1B and find a catcher? Granted, Posada's defense at C has improved significantly over the past 2 or 3 years, but he can't last forever behind the plate.
Rivera is a guy who they could sign to a 1 or 2 year extension, and I think they'd have to sign him in that case. But, what if he wants 3 years?
And, finally, anyone want to see how a 39-year old A-Rod would do? Of course, he could be going for the HR record -- but not a reason to sign him to such a huge deal.
I guess I'm just noting that the Pythagorean record is worth paying attention to even though it isn't any consolation, which I think was kind of Raf's point in the first place.
Second, expected to get 24 HR again from Damon would be wishful thinking; his career average (last year included) is only 14/season, with four full seasons of 10 or fewer.
I love what this kid can do, both at the bat and in the field, and would hate to let him go only to see him flourish elsewhere.
That said, I strongly suspect he's got some issues between the ears that might render him impervious to coaching.
I'm not quite sure how driven he is to become a better player.
Still, though, he's got such extraordinary talent.
I'd be inclined to stick it out with him, but I must admit, he does try my patience.
If, on the other hand, he is expected to be a #3 or # 4 hitter, or to repeat his stellar 2006 campaign, or to carry the team, then maybe it would better to trade him while he is young and while (If?) his stock is still very high.
And of course, it would all depend on what players were offfered in return.
Now that I've seen the man at his worst, I'd feel good about him at 39.
The man never gets hurt (knock on wood) so I'd expect he could easily give you, say, 25 hr/.280 at that age. The rest would be gravy.
If there's anyone to take a chance on, it's him. I'm officially sold.
Jorgie and Mo need to stay because they're our guys.
Transition Jorgie into a DH/PH/1B gig and let Mo pitch until he decides he can't pitch anymore. At the very least, you sign him for what he wants and then get to work finding him an understudy during his declining years.
20 It would be the first World Series victory parade in history to end where it started. Appropriate because they wouldn't have actually won1 anything, and they could just get on the team bus and go back home...
Sounds like a formula for going .500 for the foreseeable future to me.
My problem with Cano is that he seems to lose focus. To me, a winning team should be constructed of players who, whatever their individual talents may be, stay focused enough that they maximize their value each and every ab and play.
If this is the kind of player Cano is, I'd say trade him because it's hard to go all the way with guys who can't stay focused.
I don't know, I just feel uncomfortable with a guy in the lineup who might give you a quality ab, but might just give away an ab, depending on his mood, which is what I get from Robinson.
He needs someone to get through to him the way Clemens got through to Schilling, then he could be great.
All three of these guys I think would be valuable both for their contributions (I wouldn't expect any of them to offer zero value to the team, to be "done") and for their presence.
I'd rather have young guys coming up who get to play with and learn from Jorgie, Mo and Alex than not, so if that costs something, all right.
I think the emphasis should be on transition rather than rupture.
The trade Cano stuff I don't understand. The kid is still just that - a kid.
Maybe last year created unreal expectations, but on a real team he's the number 9 hitter, and he'd be fantastic as that.
Besides, he followed up his uninspired first year (impervious to coaching?) with outstanding defense last year (113 RATE) and has continued it this year (112 RATE).
No doubt his stroke is off but so was A-Rod's last year. It happens. But just as those who called for trading him were foolish, so are the folks who want to get rid of a 24 yo 2B who plays outstanding defense just becuase he's not hitting .340 (again).
I think trading Cano would be a serious mistake. I'm pretty confident that his stock will rise in the second half, so even if he's going to be traded it's better to do it in the off-season. And I'd rather not trade him. It's not like he's blocking some really good S-WB infielder, and it seems unlikely that he could be replaced with someone who'll give you more productivity.
His June OPS is .832, by the way.
Perhaps the problem is that I don't want him to just be some number 9 guy. I think he could be great and it would be hard for me to watch him year in and year out failing to achieve what appears to me to be his potential.
From a numbers standpoint, sure, keep him, but that's not exactly what I'm talking about.
I'm looking at the rosters from 65-67, and while all the individual names jump out at you (Mantle, Maris et al), the team just couldn't get it together enough to finish above 5th or 6th on a year to year basis.
Time for a lot of new blood, I suppose. But where's the next George Steinbrenner willing to swoop in & make some real changes?
I'm really just amazed how fluid he is out there.
I hate watching him go back on flyballs, however. Though he seems to make the play every time, it always looks like an adventure to me.
But his arm, his hands, his pivots, all things of beauty. His major flaw is that he botches routine plays from time to time, though actually I don't think this has happened in awhile now, so that's good.
Me, I expect a .750-.800 OPS from my 2B with above average defense. Anything more is extra sweet gravy. Cano is exactly that, if not more, and extremely cheap for another three years. To use the old Goldman line, if you want to get rid of Cano you have to name guys to take his place. And looking around baseball, I see none.
39 Then debate. Name three other 2B that are better with the glove and pick one decent defensive stat to back up your argument.
I can only look at numbers and try to tease out of those numbers the past and current value of a player, and use that to predict the future worth of a player. Obviously attitude and work ethic and the like will affect a player's career, but they are pretty nebulous and hard to identify let alone quantify from our perspective. Rather, I think frustrated fans tend to ascribe moral failing to explain a failure in execution ("Dammit A-Rod, how could you strike out when all you need is a fly ball--that's just giving an AB away").
He needs to get traded. He ain't coming back next year. Hopefully Cashman will wait until just before the deadline and bend the Angels or the Dodgers over the barrel.
Cano plays how he plays -- it doesn't mean he's not giving 100%, he's just graceful and fluid. He makes it "look" easy when he's on and makes it look nonchalant when he's off.
And as has already been stated, I think some people have unfair expectations of him. If he continues to play the pivot the way he has this year, I would keep him for 10 years even if he only hits .270 -- I don't see a whole lot of better options.
You'd improve the infield defense, and boost the offense a bit.
(and no, Richie Sexson is not the answer ... and no, I don't have a clue what the Yanks could trade to get Beltre)
Only if the team is strictly unwilling to make major concessions on restructuring his contract should they aggressively shop him at the deadline.
Realistically speaking though, there are only about five teams that might be willing to fork over the 6x$30 million it will take to sign him at the end of this year, and the Yankees are one of them. I don't see any small-mid market team repeating the Hicks error, especially when those last two years would be a tremendous gamble/could be crippling to any team with a payroll below $100 million.
My 'gut feeling' is that he makes the plays that he gets to, but he isn't exactly getting his uniform dirty out there either. He builds up my confidence in the field for weeks at a time, but then as weeping said he'll botch an easy DP or a throw from Posada and he looks like the same guy who came up mid-season in '05.
I'm not cringing with each grounder to 2B as I might have the last few years or during the end of the Knoblauch era, but I'm also not as relaxed I as I am with Alex over at third this season.
The Yankees are only paying him about $16 - $17 million and have plenty to spend, so the drag of his salary is not even a plausible explanation.
Doesn't mean it's unfailing, of course, but it can be hard to substantiate out of context like this.
You say you can only look at numbers in order to evaluate a player and I respect that, that's fine. But just because you can only look at numbers doesn't mean one can only look at numbers.
Being overmatched is being overmatched--what can you do?
But being fooled is actually something that a hitter has some mechanical control over--he can lessen the likelihood of being fooled by looking to react to the ball rather than drive it with authority.
But he's got to know which of the two he's looking to accomplish and which one is the better approach in a given situation.
When a player takes the wrong approach for a given situation I think it's fair to say his head's not in the game and thus there is room for improvement. A player's talent is what it is, but his ability to maximize that talent is subject to his own control.
You're right, attitude and work ethic are hard to quantify and can be nebulous, but I don't think "hard" means "impossible."
I'm trying to take a whack at it because it's how I experience the game. I can't not notice the things I notice, which (as I've mentioned) often are grounded in fundamentals I learned in little league. It's not about results for me, but process and approach.
Anyway, it's all right we disagree.
;)
OK, let's take this example. Batter X has two strikes and he swings aggressively rather than looking to react, as you suggest. If he strikes out, "you" (that is, my characture of your argument) say that he gave away the AB by taking the wrong approach. But let's say Batter Y does the same thing and hits a HR--"you" would not say that he gave away the AB by using the wrong approach? You see, the whole problem I have is that what I call moralizing tends to take the result and work backwards to the approach, method and ultimately moral character of teh player. It tends toward circularity and tautology: every time a player "fails" he has taken the wrong approach.
When I first started following the Yanks on the internet pipes, I was pretty committed to AVG and errors. In maybe one season I learned about about OPS. Another I learned about RATE. And this year it was EQA. The information is out there is it's not all that tough to follow. And it helps me to enjoy the game more.
It's important to hit the ball hard when you hit it. Just making contact sounds good but it produces a lot of outs. (David Ekstein, cough cough.)
Let's say it's late innings, the team trails by 4 or 5, bases-loaded and Giambi's up, followed in the lineup by very weak hitters. If he goes down swinging trying to hit the grand slam, it's all right because the gamble is that the guys behind him won't get the job done anyway, and that he's the team's best hope to score the runs.
Now, if he goes down swinging in the same scenario but the team is down by 2 runs and he's followed by solid hitters, then yes, I get mad.
Homeruns are harder to get than singles, so anytime you try for one, you have to factor in the likelihood of not getting one.
Sometimes it's a risk worth taking, other times it's not. My problem is that it doesn't seem like players always understand the difference.
When your batter X hits that HR with two strikes, or by pulling an outside pitch, I appreciate the homerun, of course, but I still feel uneasy with the approach.
I don't know--maybe I'm being tautological, but I don't think I am.
I have seen Matsui hit some outside pitches over the fence, to be sure, but I'm not convinced that they make up for all those weak-ass grounders to second I had to suffer through previous to the homerun.
"But my argument is that for all we know, had he changed his approach in those circumstances, he never would have slugged as well as he did, and he would have been a lesser player as a result. "
Quite possible, I couldn't say.
For me baseball is a game of emotion - call me a sentimental fool, but I've always subscribed to the notion that something deeper than stats wins championships. The human element of the game (on and off the field) keeps me most interested, not simply witnessing a compilation of numbers.
Just as an example, when exactly did Rafael Palmeiro become an interesting baseball story to everyone - was it when he hit 500 home runs (which would be a lock for the HOF about 20 years ago), or rather was it when he pointed his finger at a Congressional committee and basically lied to their faces about his personal steroid use?
There's a reason they're called "fundamentals," no?
Ichiro comes to mind ... his bat control is incredible. They say he could easily hit more homers if he wanted to, but that is not his job on the team.
As far as good 2-strike batters, I was listening to the ESPN radio broadcast of the Tigers/Braves last night, and they mentioned that Placido Polanco's .355 avg. with 2 strikes on him is the best in the majors .... by 40 (!) points. Polanco of course doesn't go up there looking for XBH .... his job is to move the leadoff guy along, foul off enough pitches to wear out the pitcher and find a good pitch to hit.
64 Maybe. Again, I have a hard time believing that the ol' pepper game contributes to major league success. I mean, do we really think that Matsui (or a Wade Boggs for that matter) go into the game with a runner on third and think about how to play pepper and doink the ball for a base hit? And if one could control the action of the batted ball so easily, wouldn't great hitters never get out? Would pitchers sit on teh mound sweating because they know the ol' pepper strategy is coming? I could be wrong about this--I'm wrong about a lot of things--but I have a feeling going to bat in the late innings just "trying to put the ball in play" is a lot harder than it seems, and I would rather have a batter do what he does that makes him successful, not trying to go into fungo mode.
As for Ichiro's job, it's to help his team produce as many runs as possible. I'll leave for others to debate whether he could do that more by hitting more HRs (and probably sacrificing OBP) or continuing to slap singles around.
The OBP is there (for the most part), but the lineup lacks power. That's OK if the batting average is through the roof (see Angles, LA of A), but for the Yanks, its not. I'd say right now that, while the bench is a tremendous concern - and the worst bench of the Cashman-Torre years, which is saying something - its the regular offense that is the real problem.
The Yanks really need two more big bats. One could be Matsui, if he finds his power stroke. But Cashman needs to go find another one to play 1B/DH, or the Yanks are in big trouble.
And any deal that gets Krazy Kyle out of pinstripes, and Chris Britton back in them, is fine by me.
Luis Gonzales, when asked about his big hit, reported that he'd choked up for the first time in years and years, so determined was he not to strike out.
Tino, in that same series, when asked about the ab that yielded the homerun off Kim, said "I went up there thinking the first two swings were mine."
Both of those are legitimate, situational approaches to hitting, the one yielding a dramatic bloop (put the ball in play at all costs) the other yielding the long ball.
This is why I share the skepticism expressed by monkeypants and JD. When we watch baseball games and listen to interviews, we and the players are all subject to very powerful illusions. Big picture, large n, geeky stats are the way we check on our intuitive ideas of what's happening. Often they confirm, but surprisingly often they refute.
Cano can't be traded for the exact reasons you all point out: he's young, cheap, and STILL one of the top 3 or so 2b's in the league. Maybe not at this exact moment, but considering he has shown, in a relatively small sample size, to be a 2nd half hitter, I suspect he will end the year over .300 with a higher obp than past seasons...
Cano might net us something, but I think the cost wouldn't be worth it.
The team should be blown up, somewhat: trade Farnsworth, Myers, either Britton or Bruney (to actually get something), a few minor leaguers along with, say, Damon/Moose (unlikely). At the end of the season, drop Bobby A., the whole bench, and try to drop Giambi's dead weight too.
It's not likely to be done with much return, but it at least free's up roster spots, dead weights, and Joe's tendancies.
Oh yeah, Torre has to go, mostly because he is not a manager for a "rebuilding" team, or even this team. His tendencies and BFOG (nice!) mentality exasperate the issues of this team...
None of this will happen until post-All-Star at least. The rest of the season can just as easily be spent with S. Duncan at 1B, Britton, Ramirez etc in the BP, Hughes in Moose's spot or whoevers when he comes back, etc...
65 Every batter should take the Polanco approach, fouling off pitches, wearing pitchers down and getting a good pitch to hit.
As for his job, it's like everyone else's; get on base and score.
70 I agree 100%. You said it better than I could, RIYank.
Suggesting that normally he would never change his approach thus. So, a batter facing the greatest closer of all time at the height of his powers did something that he had never done in years and it worked out. Of course, it worked out because the infield was foolishly drawn in, and had it been positioned better the little flair would have been caught with the runner staying at third. But it worked out, so it was the right approach.
In any case, you're citing the margins here, not the norms.
I happen to believe, however, that a lot of what fuels baseball players over the long haul can transcend natural ability and past performance.
Er, wait a minute - I think I could be referring to steroids with that statement... ;-)
69 Kinda makes you wonder if he was giving AB's away all those times Gonzalez didn't choke up with 2 stikes and struck out :)
The Yankees simply have to re-sign or extend Rodriguez. His production is not replaceable. Without him the team will lose all credibility, and will be hard pressed to remain competitive. If they can't sign him, then they really will be a .500 team.
Of course, he may have gotten some other "boosts" along the way as well...
Can't disagree with that.
What we're talking about is the wisdom to know the difference. How to integrate stats with intuition/direct observation. I don't have the answer because stats are not my friend, but the two do need to be integrated and the stats need to be far more precise than they seem to be right now.
For instance, it doesn't seem as if stats take into account whether a player is hurt or not, or whether he's "swinging the bat well" or not.
Like the David Justice thing in 2001. Anyone with eyes to see could tell you he had no chance of getting a hit, and that he was so far gone it was inconceivable he'd turn it around in the course of a few games, yet the stats made him the superior choice to Shane Spencer.
The point being, the stats outline the forest, to be sure, but sometimes it's the trees that matter.
Or something like that.
:)
Similar example: Felix Heredia.
(Note the common Cub theme here.)
What other signings/trades felt that way to you guys? "Insta-disasters".
At the time, I have to admit that I was pretty pissed off when the Yankees traded Roberto Kelly (and a Triple A pitcher who had won 19 games the year before) for Paul O'Neill. So, can't say the "ugh" feeling always works out.
Ah, skip it.
"insta-disasters"???? Dave Collins ...
I don't think much of anyone, except maybe Showalter and Stick, expected Paulie to become as good as he did.
More apropos to the subject: Ron Davis for Roy Smalley.
Maybe what the eyes of anyone with eyes told them about David Justice turned out to be true. But again, we'd have to know how many times those eyes turned out to be the victim of illusion. Since we don't know that, the rebuttal, "But I can see that he doesn't get good at bats these days," is not convincing.
To me.
Of course, anybody who says that stats will predict infallibly is nuts. Obviously sometimes the statistically betst player gets out-performed by a shocking lower-evaluated player. But once more, the important question is whether somebody's intuitive judgment is going to be more reliable in the long run than, say, PECOTA expectations. Pundits who criticized the pre-season PECOTA prediction about the White Sox, for example, are awfully quiet about it now. I'd love to see someone who doesn't trust state-of-the-are statistics put their predictions up against a geeky set of predictions, and do it for at least one whole season. Maybe there's a savant out there who can reliably beat the stat-heads. Let him step forward!
I know this is gonna sound like 20-20 hindsight, but given my Baseball Prospectus leanings, I knew the Giambi signing was gonna be a huge albatross by the 4th year.
Giambi's build and "old player skills" were gonna deteriorate faster after the age of 30 than other players, and that was BEFORE we knew of his "I'm sorry for whatever I did" statements, which would lead to earlier and more dramatic breakdowns of tendons/muscles.
Torre on Cairo: "He's doing well," Torre said. "The big part of it is now I'm seeing good things offensively from him. He's having good at-bats so I'm going to stay with him."
If either is really an accurate depiction of both men's intentions, then it would be in the best interest of the organization that they both be fired immediately.
Of course, if you get something extraordinary in another position for Cano a la A-Rod for Soriano, that counts in the math. But creating a problem at 2B to solve another problem is no improvement. By the way, he's getting $490,800 in 2007, and I've never read that he's not one of the top five 2B in the league.
And forget the stats if you want - but then you have to accurately remember the outcome (not the process) of every play and every at bat.
Kinda scary to see that the 2 pitchers that most resemble Buehrle at this point in his career are Teddy Higuera and Lamarr Hoyt.
A-Rod and Cano to the Cubs for Soriano (whom we move back to 2nd) and A. Ramirez
(I kid I kid)
Good catch-all site for trade rumors
101 105 I think that makes a lot more sense, though I can't see Theo making that move. I could see Lucchino doing it, maybe.
"And for those of you that still worry that Cash may jump at such a deal, do not fret: players can not be traded until the 1 year anniversary of when they signed, which is something in mid-to-late August for Kennedy and mid-September for Joba. All that "they can be PTBNL" garbage is just that; garbage. A guy can't be the PTBN for a deal that is retroactive to their 1-yr anniversary. Williams will get a better offer for Buehrle before those dates. Rest easy."
fingers crossed that that is accurate ...
Edwar Ramirez just struck out five batters in a row, and it was the top five hitters in the Syracuse Chiefs lineup. This guy has unreal strikeout numbers this year, and it's thanks to a rediculous changeup that some scouts have confused for a split finger.
Between Double-A and Triple-A, Ramirez has 74 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. He's pitched in 23 games, and given up three runs. His changeup is filthy, his fastball sits around 91 mph and his slider is an effective pitch.
The numbers are tantalizing, but he might not be quite ready for New York just yet. Although he has just 17 walks, the Yankees want to see more consistency with his four-seamer.
"We're trying to get this guy ready for the big leagues, and do that he needs better fastball command," pitching coach Dave Eiland said. "And he knows that."
So Ramirez is working on his fastball, and his slider, to compliment that nearly unhitable change.
"He's coming along nicely," Eiland said, and he seemed to know it was an understatement
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
if not having command of your fastball is an impediment to being in the bigs, WTF are bruney, farnsworth, villone, vizcaino and myers doing here???
"Philip Hughes is out of the boot and will begin a throwing program that should put him back around August 1"
Edwar Ramirez, RHP, Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees)
The Yankees signed Ramirez out of the independent leagues last year, and he's been nothing but a strikeout machine since. The 26-year-old Dominican lasted just six weeks in the Eastern League, striking out 33 in 16.2 innings before moving up to Triple-A, where with five more strikeouts in just two innings on Sunday, he now has 41 more whiffs in 23.2 frames. That's a total of 74 punch outs in 40.1 innings with just 19 hits allowed across two levels. His game is not the pure power dominance one would assume from numbers like that. Tall, exceedingly skinny and full of deception, Ramirez has no more than average velocity, but his changeup, which features outstanding arm action, fade and heavy sinking action, is among the best in the minors. Given that the major-league bullpen that's been problematic at times, Ramirez deserves a shot.
cult of basebaal (City of Angels): What are the exact rules concerning when a minor league player can be traded after he signs his first contract. Chamberlain and Kennedy are both being mentioned as possible targets in trade talks with the White Sox, yet according to the River Avenue Blues blog, both signed late last summer and haven't been with the Yankees for a full year. Can they be traded before a full year has passed, even as PTBNL?
Kevin Goldstein: You define the rule well, while also finding the loophole. A player can not be traded for one year after signing, but at the same time, you CAN do a PTBNL deal and then trade that fresh draft guy once he hits a year.
I can't see the Sox offering even one of those three for Buehrle, hes just not good enough. And the Sox based rumors that invovle the usual our crap for your star angle, like Wily-Mo/Coco/Hansen/Delcarmen stuff is also nonesense. Chicago can do better than that.
The Sox could really use Buehrle, but on the other hand, with Lester coming back sometime soon, they can rid themselves of Taverez (helping their BP, amazingly), and have Wake as a very good #5. The Sox and Yanks rotation for the next decade shape up to be scary for the rest of the league:
Beckett
Dice-K
Lester
Buchholz (ok, I looked it up this time)
Someone
vs.
Hughes
Wang
Joba
Kennedy
Someone/Roger Clemens at age 50 :)
BA: .180 OBP: 247 SLG: .264 OPS+: 34
But he is still better than Wil Nieves:
BA: .111 OBP: .149 SLG: .111 OPS+: -28
I didn't know that OPS+ could be negative numbers. WOW!
Makes you long for the days of John Flaherty.
SI's Joe Heyman says the White Sox have asked the Yankees about Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy as part of a Mark Buehrle trade, but that those are the three guys the Yankees want to keep.
Same for Wright, White etc...Considering there is Betences, Brackman, Marquez, Horne etc all as "potential" starters too (potential b/c they are all a ways off), guys like Clippard might get bumped
Fortunately, he only has 48 plate appearances so far so his VORPr of -680 has not had too much impact.
For what it is worth, he isn't the worst backup catcher. Gustavo Molina is worse with BA: 056, OBP: 100, SLG: 056 and a VORPr of -861.
But the White Sox have the good sense to limit him to 21 plate appearances so far.
BTW, I'm looking forward to reading "Mom & Pop Story, Part IV" over at your blog (http://seriousconsideration.blogspot.com for those who have not seen it yet). Very good read so far...
Posada is no ordinary starting catcher - of course we should expect a big drop off from his replacement. I'm talking Greg Zaun/Michael Barrett drop off, however, not Wil Nieves drop off.
This whole situation is the very definition of 'whistling past the graveyard', IMO. If Posada goes down, Cashman may as grab his ankles because the other 29 GMs in baseball will all be lining up for their chance to rape our farm system...
Using minor leaguers as trading chips is a completely justifiable strategy. The trick is (a) to do your best to identify overvalued minor leaguers, and (b) don't trade them out of panic (and especially not for old guys with limited skills). Right now the Yankees have so many pitching prospects that, if they all pan out, the team simply won't have room for them. Of course, by then they won't have a catcher.
Don't forget, quite a few of those prospect-for-veteran trades worked out just fine: Chuck Knoblauch, for example.
http://molina.lacounty.gov/
138 Ah, thank you my friend. Keep 'em wanting, I learned that over here. Part IV will come in very good time, but keep checking in on me and my team for some more stuff (I'll be there tonight >;)
141 That's assuming somebody made a marguerita in Terry Ryan's head the night before. Somebody pass the salt, please?
For anyone who's interested, Nieves's career line now stands at .142/.180/.181. If he goes on a little tear, though, he can raise his career OPS+ to 0.
The PTBNL must be named within six months of the deal. So if we were trading Kennedy as a PTBNL, the deal couldn't be done until the end of January 2007.
The Reds used this tactic recently. They traded Chris Denorfia to Oakland for Marcus McBeth and a PTBNL. Everyone wondered why it was taking so long to name the PTBNL. They found out when the player was revealed: Ben Jukich. Who was drafted last year, and couldn't be sent to the Reds until one year after he signed.
(cricket, cricket...)
No commentary necessary....
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/living/articles/2007/06/26/dice_k_pitches_cd_to_sox_fans/
.307 .393 .594 (254 ABs) 19 HR 58 RBI
He bats RH. He's 6'5". He's not yet 28.
What's not to love, Cashman?
That's not a rationale opinion, it's due to his extreme offensive inconsistency. He can't be relied on in my opinion. I think we could get something for him, but I don't think we could get something great for him. And if you don't get a net gain in a transaction, what's the point of making it?
Looks like Moose vs. Santana. They've had a couple of good postseason duels, with Johann always coming out on top. Perhaps the Ghost of Dave Righetti will be present (was that really 24 years ago?).
(I'm losing my optimism, guys. Must be strong.)
But I still think he's likely to be a pretty good player, and that's just fine. Bat him 7th or 8th, write his name in the lineup every day, and don't expect him to be Joe Morgan (the player, not the broadcaster). I don't see him as part of the problem; I think he's a keeper.
Guidry was matched up against Stieb. Gator didn't have his best stuff, digging the team into a 4-1 hole after 6. Stieb had given up only 2 hits, but he was wild. Finally, after the Yanks loaded the bases on 2 walks and an error with one out in the 7th, Bobby Cox turned to the bullpen and the Yanks turned up their engines. They rallied for 6 runs in the inning, capped by a 3-run homer by Ron Hassey (??!) and held on to win 7-5.
The Stadium was in euphoria. Memories of 1978 were everywhere. We were destined to sweep the Jays and move into first.
But the next night, a rare error by Mattingly in the 3rd led to the first two of three unearned runs, as Jim Clancy and the Jays thwarted Phil Neikro's first attempt for victory #300 with a 3-2 squeaker. Toronto won Saturday and Sunday as well, and the season went downhill from there.
I live in Canada now, and I am sometimes reminded by people about that incedent. But then I remind them of various peoples booing the US national anthem (such as a group of Canadians sitting near me at a bar watching the last winter Olympics) and they get mad at me.
I (personally) really hate went nationalism and national/ethnic pride extends into sporting events. I prefer my sports as an escape of sorts from such ugliness--that's why I tend not to like such things as the modern Olympics or the World Baseball Classic or the World Cup for that matter, but I recognize that I am in the vast minority.
166 See, I am not so down on Cano. He's always been streaky and a 2nd half hitter (ok, well so far, small sample size). Plus, his walks are up this year. heck, he has 13 thus far and had 18 ALL of last season. I wouldn't be surprised if he caught fire for an extended amount of time and ended up in the .310-.320 range, which is more resonable, obsiouly. The power hasn't come as I hoped, and that is the biggest problem...
My point being that with the season only half over, and a guy who has hit nearly .330 in the 2nd half, don't give up on him yet...
170 ...it sure was because of the war in Iraq - link-o:
http://tinyurl.com/2g98x7
BUT, as was argued yesterday, even if Cano's entire career looks like April, May and June '07, he is still pretty much league average as a 2B. Given his age and the fact that he's actually pretty good on the pivot...it's unlikely you would get an upgrade at this position without overpaying.
And as Zack points out, he has traditionally been better late in the year -- he hit .365 post ASB last year. If he ends up anywhere near .300, he's a definite keeper until such time as a better option comes up through the farm system.
Cano falls squarely into the "least of our worries" category and if you use him as trade fodder, it is quite likely 2B will move into the "top of our worries" list as a result.
In any case, one can stand by one's principles without performing blanket acts of disrespect. I have no problem with Delgado making a political statement--indeed, as a public figure he could have given frank interviews or led a protest in his off day. But this type of gesture is, in my opinion, inappropriate (though certainly legal) because it symbolically rejects an entire nation for the policies (or, more accurately, a single policy) of its government. And I think it would be equally inappropriate for someone who disagreed with French or Canadian or German or whatever foreign policy to do likewise during the national anthem at a sporting event.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.