Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Orioles entered June in second place in the AL East with a .500 record. They then proceeded to go 2-14 to drop into last place, with the added indignity of being swept at home by the Nationals along the way. A week ago, eight games into the nine-game losing streak that concluded that 16-game slide, the O's fired manager Sam Perlozzo. Perlozzo's three seasons as Orioles manager perfectly illustrate how poorly run the team has been in its recent history.
The Orioles limped to a .438 winning percentage in the fourth and final year of Mike Hargrove's skippership in 2003. Lee Mazzilli took over the team in 2004 and led it to a .481 winning percentage, it's best mark since Hargrove's first season in 2000 and good enough for a third-place finish, the first time the O's had finished outside of fourth since they'd last won the division in 1997. Of course, that third place finish had more to do with the collapse of the Blue Jays than anything else, but still, the improvement was obvious.
In 2005, Mazzilli took largely the same O's team to the top of the standings in the early going. Mazzilli's O's were in first place as late as June 23, when, suddenly, the bottom fell out. The Orioles went 9-28 from the final week of June through the beginning of August, falling all the way down to their customary fourth, and dropping from 14 games over .500 to five games under. On August 3, following an eight-game losing streak that capped a 1-14 skid, the O's fired Mazzilli and replaced him with Sam Perlozzo.
When the O's canned Mazzilli, the team had a .477 record. Having finished at .481 the year before, it seemed clear that the O's were merely a .500 team that had played over its head in the first half of 2005 and had just experienced a rather cruel course correction. With Perlozzo at the helm, the O's immediately halted their skid with a pair of wins, and proceeded to go 9-4 to climb back to .500, but that was as much as the new manager could get out of his charges. Baltimore went 14-28 the rest of the way and the players appeared to visibly quit on their new skipper, who posted a .418 winning percentage in his portion of the season. Mix in the Rafael Palmeiro drug scandal and the team was an ebarassment on field and off.
It's an overused quote, but they say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I'd counter that that's actually the definition of incompetence, which describes the O's to a tee. Baltimore retained Perlozzo in 2006, perhaps because they knew the manager would be able to lure his old buddy Leo Mazzone away from Atlanta to become the new Oriole pitching coach. Perlozzo got Mazzone, but it didn't matter. The 2006 O's settled in fourth place for good on April 29, the players once again sulked through the season, and the team finished with a .432 winning percentage.
So the O's brought back Perlozzo again for 2007 only to finally fire him in late June with his sulking ballclub sporting a .420 winning percentage. In Perlozzo's defense, the O's didn't do much to improve the team on the field during his time as manager. The team's best players (Miguel Tejada, Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, Eric Bedard, Chris Ray) were already in place in 2005. The best addition the team has made since then has been catcher Ramon Hernandez, who has missed time with a pair of leg injuries this year. Rookies Nick Markakis and Adam Loewen arrived in 2006, but Loewen is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his pitching elbow. Meanwhile, the team's imports have included include Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Jay Payton, Corey Patterson, the $50 million-dollar bullpen of Danys Baez (currently on the DL), Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, and Scott Williamson, and Steve Trachsel, who is only on the team because the trade of John Maine for Kris Benson blew up in the Orioles' faces. Those players do not a winning baseball team make. Meanwhile, Mazzone has been unable to fix failed prospect Daniel Cabrera, and, with Perlozzo gone, Mazzone may decide to split himself. It's no wonder Joe Girardi declined the Orioles job offer.
Speaking of trading for injured pitchers, the Orioles have the Jaret Wright trade to thank for one of the few bright spots in their 2007 season, tonight's starter Jeremy Guthrie. After drafting him out of Stanford with the 21st-overall pick in 2002, the Indians tried to fast-track Guthrie to the majors, but instead stunted his progress. After being thrust into triple-A after just nine pro starts in 2003, Guthrie finally experienced success in his fourth attempt at the level last year, but that didn't translate to the majors, where he posted a 6.98 ERA mostly in relief. The O's plucked the former top prospect of waivers this January and stuck him in the pen as a long reliever after he aced spring training. That didn't go so well (7.84 ERA), but the injuries to Loewen and Wright--the latter of whom has pitched in as many games for the O's as Chris Britton has for the Yanks this season: three--forced Guthrie into the rotation in the beginning of May where he's pitched like an ace, posting a 1.63 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, going nine-for-nine in quality starts, and averaging 7 1/3 innings per game. Of course, on the Orioles that's been good for three wins and six no-decisions as the team has managed to lose five of his starts including one he left in the ninth inning having surrendered just one unearned run (the final score of that game: 6-5 Red Sox). Another testiment to the wisdom of Joe Girardi.
Opposing Guthrie tonight is Andy Pettitte, who knows a thing or two about pitching in bad luck. Pettitte made news after his last start when he admitted that he "quit pitching" after Matt Holliday drove his changeup 442 feet into the left field stands (really over the left field stands) to turn a 1-0 Yankee lead into a 2-1 Rocky advantage in the sixth inning. What Andy really meant was that he abandoned his game plan after that pitch, and the results showed it. Holliday's homer came with two outs and the Yankees only got out of the sixth because Todd Helton was thrown out trying to score on a single. Six of the eight batters Pettitte faced after Holliday hit safely including a Helton double and a Kaz Matsui triple that finally ended his night with the Yankees trialing 5-1. One imagines that both that performance, his post-game admission, and the Yankees 1-5 record on their current road trip will have him pitching with an increased intensity tonight. For that reason, I'm expecting a pitchers duel between Guthrie, facing a Yankee offense which seems to go whichever direction Bobby Abreu goes, which right now is down, and Pettitte facing the Orioles' offense which is the fourth worst in the AL and features just one batter, Brian Roberts, who is meaninfully more productive than league average.
Incidentally, Pettitte did not start against the Orioles when they came to the Stadium in early April, but did throw a scoreless relief inning against them in the series finale. Guthrie, meanwhile, has faced the Yankees just once, doing so the second major league game of his career, which just happened to be the Indians 22-0 win at the Stadium on August 31, 2004. Guthrie threw the final two innings of that historic blowout.
Baltimore Orioles
2007 Record: 32-43 (.427)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 36-39 (.482)
Manager: Dave Trembley
General Manager: Mike Flanagan
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Oriole Park at Camden Yards (99/99)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Dave Trembley replaces Sam Perlozzo
Jay Payton (DL) replaces Miguel Tejada (DL)
John Knott (minors) replaces Alberto Castillo (minors)
Rob Bell (minors) and Paul Shuey (minors) replace Jeremy Guthrie and Danys Baez (DL) in the bullpen
Guthrie and Brian Burres (minors) replace Jaret Wright (DL) and Adam Loewen (DL) in the rotation
25-man Roster
1B - Aubrey Huff (L)
2B - Brian Roberts (S)
SS - Chris Gomez (R)
3B - Melvin Mora (R)
C - Ramon Hernandez (R)
RF - Nick Markakis (L)
CF - Corey Patterson (L)
LF - Jay Payton (R)
DH - Kevin Millar (R)
Bench:
L - Jay Gibbons (OF)
L - Freddie Bynum (UT)
R - John Knott (OF)
L - Paul Bako (C)
Rotation:
L - Erik Bedard
R - Daniel Cabrera
L - Brian Burres
R - Steve Trachsel
R - Jeremy Guthrie
Bullpen:
R - Chris Ray
L - Jamie Walker
R - Chad Bradford
R - Scott Williamson
L - John Parrish
R - Rob Bell
R - Paul Shuey
15-day DL: R - Miguel Tejada (SS), R - Danys Baez, R - Sendy Rleal
60-day DL: R - Kris Benson, R - Jaret Wright, L - Adam Loewen, R - Jon Leicester
Lineup:
S - Brian Roberts (2B)
R - Melvin Mora (3B)
L - Nick Markakis (RF)
R - Ramon Hernandez (C)
L - Aubrey Huff (1B)
R - Kevin Millar (DH)
R - Jay Payton (LF)
L - Corey Patterson (CF)
R - Chris Gomez (SS)
Let's Go Yankees!
Let's Go Yankees!
hey cliff, whaddya say you write up one these for our yankees after the ASB, summarizing our 1st half and taking a peek at the 2nd half...?
anyway, we really MUST sweep the Oreo's. period, end of. no excuses.
First of all: "OMG Abreu's batting eighth! Torre hates Abreu! I hope Abreu can handle it with his ego!"
/sarcasm.
Second of all: how is someone supposed to figure it out with the most inept starting hitter in baseball hitting behind him?
9 a no-hitter, huh? well, i'll be...
cap'n jeter is 33 today. seems like he's a bit farther along than i am in the same amount of time... : ~
where is everyone?
I've got two nicknames ready for ol' Shelly when he comes up, depending on how he does...
If Shelly > Good .. AngelFood
If Shelly < Bad .... Meatcake!
For instance for hitting, is 20 ABs significant? 50? 200? Is even a full season significant enough, where plenty of guys have "fluke" years? At what point is it reasonable for a manager to say, I'm going to play hitter A over hitter B because he has a better history against pitcher C?
Apologies if this is a very basic sabermetric question.
Guthrie's thrown 40 pitches after 4 innings. He is simply breezing right now.
Anyone want to start talking about 1965 again?
Wow, weird ass crazy bat/ball play by Jetes there!
i've never seen a play like that before.
Maybe some more bunts would make this game more enjoyable.
Either that or maybe Jetes and ARod should try some sleep-overs.
Seriously though, what god would accept Cairo as sacrifice? We could at least offer Melky or Phillips, much more attractive. Heck, I think anyone would work better...Save Torre that is...
Ha!
CHARGE!!!!
Man... it's like picking on the crippled kid.
78 How's that? ; )
Mr. GreenTea should have the whole team running laps around the field for an hour after the game everytime that sheet happens -- especially late in the game. Eff's sake.
Here's one for the future. O's score 1 in the bottom of the inning -- probably a leadoff walk coming around to score -- and we get shut down in the top of the 9th as easily as in the 8th and lose another.
Josh Phelps watch: 1-2 with a BB
There's no reason the Yanks should be losing games because of the bullpen when the arms are there and Torre refuses to use them.
But Jay Gibbons, good fucking lord.
he still needs to be left in the lowrises with with 50 large cash and 10 kilos of h for Omar to find . . . The Wire Bal-more reference.
Actually, I would think about it except the bottom of the order is s brutal, I'm not sure the runner scores here.
Then Melky walks. Let's hope that out doesn't come back to haunt this inning.
I missed almost all of the SF games, and boy am I glad I did when I heard the highlights - and I called Torre's Jeff Weaver syndrome on Saturday as soon as I heard the game was tied going into extra innings. I'll bet I wasn't the only one.
Chris Basak, come on down!
And who wants to bet we see EDSP now?
Wow, that was hacktastical.
Therein lies the problem with having a sub-mediocre player start at first for the highest paid team in baseball.
#$%()#$)$#)$()*()#$ Cairo. That's why you can't punt offense at 1B. That's why he doesn't belong in the job he has.
So incredibly frustrating.
148 I'd prefer if Chris Basak wasn't on the 40-man roster, much less the 25-man roster.
Britton just pitched 2.1 scoreless innings today.
Shelly Duncan is currently batting:
.307/.393/.594 with 19 HR
Ok, I admit his track record isn't great but he's on pace to hit about 40 HR. And we keep trotting out Miggy, Villone and Myers. Its frustrating when there are better options there.
I mean, the trade deadline is coming up in a little over 4 weeks. Shouldn't we see if these guys can play before we trade them or others?
I'm glad Cairo has grit, the team can rub it on themselves to feel better when they lose game after game.
Maybe we can package those guys for Jermaine Dye
Maybe we can package those guys for Jermaine Dye
I'm sorry, but many of the suggestions I and others are making are not knee-jerk, this guy sucks because he struck out once or something, they are reasoned moves.
You have several players performing well at AAA. And several performing crappy at the MLB. So logic dictates we swap them and try, but no.
Again, I am not saying Phillips is the answer. But why even bother calling up a player to use him that little.
Hey Hey--great play by EDSP!!
Meanwhile A-Rod is screaming and Jorge is pointing.
Given A and B. B is somewhat unknown, A is clearly bad.
Oh and the OF is BACK. WTF?!
And that fucking blows. Great idea to have Cano bunt last inning.
Fi-re Tor-re. Fi-re Tor-re. Fi-re Tor-re.
.
.
.
.
What does Mo think?
By far the worst so far. Sell the team, fire Joe, whatever, I can't watch this crap anymore
We walk in the winning run, with Mo on the bench. Again.
Joe Torre needs to be fired. Not next month, not next week, right now. That is at least as bad as Grady Little sticking with Pedro.
Your team is tailspinning. You are tied. Do you go to the greatest reliever in history? No. Your chosen reliever basically walks the bases loaded, go to him now? No. You're saving him for when you take the lead in the top of 27th.
:-P
When you look worse than the O's, its time for a firesale, or the best you can do...
You know what? Fuck Scott Proctor. I don't care who "should have been in" He was put in a do or die situation and he fucking walked THREE MEN?
He's been doing this all year and I'm fucking sick of it.
Two, four, six, eight...
Torre has to go.
I was perfectly willing to give Joe the benefit of the doubt in April, with the injuries and all, but in July - something needs to be done.
Playoffs, schmayoffs, they should start rebuilding and hope for a .500 record.
What this team needs is a once in a lifetime reliever, a sure fire HOF type guy!
That means: 30-42 against everyone else.
Right up there with
Worthless 16 walks in 30 IP
Bruney 24 walks in 32 IP
NotRandy 27 walks in 37 IP.
Its easy to blame Torre for everything. But the Yankees have built one shitass bullpen. We have one reliever. At some point this was going to blow up in our faces.
And I swear to God, if Cashman/Stein go the seel the future by trading Camberlain/Kennedy/whoever for Dye/whoever, I will just end this relationship, I swear to God!
Damn it Yankees, I wish I knew how to quit you!
Everyone in our PB, everyone in AAA and AA and A should be able to pitch an inning without giving up 3 walks. Mo can nopt be our only reliable pitcher (although he has been poor in 4+ games this season).
I would had Mo in with 1st and 2nd. I disagree with Torre's call. But Proctor blew it.
It's not too much to ask a pitcher to throw strikes, a player to bunt, or SOMEONE to get a hit with RISP.
Time for the rebuilding to begin.
And yet a little part of me foolishly flashes back to the .500 records of the 2005 Indians and 2006 As around the ASB, and keeps stupidly thinking the Yanks can somehow pull off a similarly miraculous .700 level stretch of play in July and August. Then Sunday's lineup...and today's ninth inning...just deliver the kick to the nuts.
Damn it Yankees, I wish I knew how to quit you!*
No, you won't and you don't.
Somehow, it's easier if you're watching Pat Kelly and Alvaro Espinoza and Tim Leary and Wade Taylor. Those guys never disappointed me, because I had no expectations to begin with.
241 Knuckles! There's an idea for your next cartoon, man! >;)
but then you have to wonder. if most of us (who aren't paid to do so) can see these mistakes so easily while they are happening, isn't cashman or someone else in the front office seeing them just as easily? and aren't they talking to joe and telling him what he is doing wrong and what he has to change? if they have, and he is continuing to make these errors, it is THEIR duty to fire him. if they haven't, they have neglected their duty to address it. either way, someone in the front office is making the mistake of leaving a known commodity in a position where he can ruin this team. at a certain point, you have to transfer the blame from the person actually making the mistakes to the people who are responsible for changing personnel when mistakes are made. that goes for joe, and it goes for his superiors, all the way to steinbrenner, who is apparently stubbornly waiting this season out so that he can have a great big "i told you so" for cashman at the end.
1. Trade Farnsworth. Let it be for some position prospects.
2. Trade or release Myers.
3. Bring up Britton
4. Bring up Ramirez.
5. Send Basak down. You have Cairo who can play all IF positions, and Phillips who can play all by SS in a pinch. Basak is superfluous.
6. Call up Shelly Duncan. DH him, let Phillips play first, or platoon him with Cairo.
7. DL Damon. Call up Kevin Reese ( I haven't thought this one through totally, it might be better to call someone else up).
8. DFA Nieves. Go sign any other backup catcher out there. They have to hit better than Nieves, who can't play defense anyways.
As for Torre, I'm less pissed now, but for reasons I've stated even before the season I think he needs to go. You have to let these kids play.
Look at Detroit. Awhile ago they called up a bunch of young, hard throwing relievers and most have panned out. Most every other team builds at least a bit from within. Our entire bullpen save for Mo and to a lesser extent Proctor are overrated veterans.
And the bullpen and specifically the bench may not have been an issue if he didn't break the bank on Kei Igawa. That was a move for the ages.
259 I think you're being too harsh on Proctor. He can be an effective reliever, if not consistently lights-out. But he's being asked to carry a brutal load.
Are you with me so far? No? Good, because this is losing almost as much steam as the team. I've had more fun watching a lead-off squeeze-play... can't wait to see how Alex recaps this (I see the H-word already...)
As for the bunt, I know OldYankFan blames the plaers (or the organization for the players) because they can't execute a bunt 247. Now, I can spout statistics all night about how the bunt is a bad play when you have a man on first and no outs, but let's concede that a bunt might be the appropriate move. You cannot butn with Posada on first--he's slow as shit and a terrible baserunner. So, either you have to commit to the bunt and going for one run by PR (Thompson?), or you forget the bunt until you are in a tactically better situation. Once again, Torre made the decision to bunt in that exact configuaration, with a very slender chance for success--that's hist tactical blunder as mcuch as Cano's failure to execute.
In the same post 247 OYF asks for someone to get a hit with RISP--I agree, but here again is where having so many weak bats in the line-up hurt. The chances of any single player coming through increases when don't "carry" a defensive 1B and crippled DH because the rest of the offense is supposedly good. Cashman and Torre can't be blamed for the incredible shrinking Abreu and Matsui, but someone has got to take the fall for the 1B situation.
BTW, what's with PeteAbe understanding the not using a closer in a tie game on the road theory? What is there to understand. Its a retarded theory. Most often you lose with your closer sitting on the bench.
this season is not yet lost. if logical moves are made, it can still be turned around. but logic seems to have lost the yankee organization. common sense has given way to absolute nonsense. those of you who make excuses for torre and just blame the pitchers should try to at least explain why some of his moves have been good. it isn't enough to say that the players shouldn't walk this guy or shouldn't strike out in this situation. they are facing opponents who are trying to win. joe torre is making decisions that are not directly resisted by an opponent. are there explanations for them? is there any logic?
And why would we expect them to adjust when they have a manager that simply refuses to use his closer on the road in the last inning of a tied game.
Follow the yellow brick road to Loser Town Joe!!!
Joe has to go.
"I asked Torre directly about using Rivera and he said he didn't want do based on the 1.2 innings he had worked on Friday. It's good that he wants to protect Rivera's arm. But 20 pitches over nine days? I think he had two innings in him tonight."
Did Torre mean that? He couldn't pitch at all, or couldn't pitch in a non-save situation, because he pitched four days ago? Does that make any sense?
Mind boggling.
Abreu: RISP: BA=.241, OPS=.667, 2007 OPS=.712
Damon: RISP: BA=.240, OPS=.770, 2007 OPS=.700
Melky: RISP: BA=.197, OPS=.496, 2007 OPS=.680
---------------------------------------------
Avg:-------------BA=.221+/-, OPS=.702+/-
Icing on the Cake:
Mr Clutch, Matsui: RISP OPS: .783. 2007=.808
Cairo: RISP: BA=.261, OPS=.612, 2007 OPS=.614
Cairo (79 ABs, $750,000)
4 Studs(1017 ABs,$30,000,000)
And you guys think Cairo is killing this team?
Yes, he is a significant part of the problem.
Compare Cairo to the current league average for 1B in any offensive category and you will see he is woefully inadequate. He may have "grit" and "pluck" but I'll take someone who can hit a sacrifice fly past the infield.
Back to last night which still irritates the shit out of me.
The only reason Torre doesn't pinch run Thompson for Jorge in the 9th is Nieves. That shows how pathetically this team is constructed AND managed. Tie game on the road, playing for one run. He bunts Cano (Fi-re Tor-re) with Jorge running (Fi-re Tor-re).
Un-fucking-believable.
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Fi-re Tor-re. (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
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