Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
This just in: The Rockies don't suck. In fact, the Rockies have won as many games in 2007 as the Yankees have (though Colorado has lost two more). No longer Todd Helton and a bunch of scrubs, the Rockies are a legitimate .500 team that has some youth and promise that could represent the beginning of a small turn around for a franchise that has never won more than 83 games in any single season in its entire 14-year history. Note I said small. The Rockies are not the Brewers, Diamondbacks, or even the Marlins. Their future isn't quite that bright, but it's still about as bright as it's ever been if not more so.
Start with the pitching staff. Josh Fogg and Rodrigo Lopez are filler, even if Lopez is having an excellent though injury-shortened season, but Jeff Francis, Jason Hirsh, and Aaron Cook (of whom the 28-year-old Cook is the oldest) form a solid top three with third-year lefty Francis showing continued improvement as the defacto ace, Cook serving as the National League's answer to Jake Westbrook, and 25-year-old Hirsh (the key prospect in the Jason Jennings trade) succeeding despite a scary fly ball rate. With additional thanks to Lopez, the Rocky starters have posted a 4.52 ERA this far, which is a minor miracle for a team playing in Coors Field. Mix in strong showings from closer Brian Fuentes and hard-throwing, side-arming sophomore set-up man Manuel Corpas and surprising performances from lefties Jeremy Affeldt (more walks than Ks, but zero homers) and Tom Martin, and the entire staff's ERA+ is a dead-average 101, while the team's road ERA is 3.85, which is the third-best in the NL behind the Mets and Padres.
On offense, the Rocks have a solid outfield and left side of the infield, with the oldest of those five men being 28-year-old right fielder Brad Hawpe. Matt Holliday is a legitimate All-Star (.318/.374/.546 career and .321/.372/.522 on the road this year). Hawpe is a lesser version of same (.281/.371/.483 career on the road). Center fielder Willy Taveras (who also came over in the Jennings deal) is a fantastic defender in that big park and has solid on-base numbers both at home (.373) and on the road (.358), though he could stand to be more selective about his stolen base attempts. In the infield, Garrett Atkins got off to an awful start, but has turned it on in June (.327/.441/.673), and 22-year-old future-star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has been playing gold glove defense while waiting for his bat to come around. Throw in solid contributions on both sides of the ball from reclamation project Kaz Matsui and a healthy Helton and, well, the Rockies don't suck.
Josh Fogg kinda sucks, though, and he'll take the mound tonight against the Yankees. One might not be surprised to find that Fogg's only two wins came on the road and that his ERA at home is 2.77 runs higher than his road mark, though one might be surprised to find out that those two wins game against the Mets and Red Sox. What's more, the Rockies have won Fogg's last three starts and Fogg's ERA over his last four starts (two home, two on the road) has been 3.91. Then again, opponents have hit .326/.375/.495 against him in those four starts, so, even when he does well, Josh Fogg sucks.
As for Mike Mussina, he was fantastic in his last two starts (13 2/3 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 11 K, 1.98 ERA), but I'm still not convinced, as the two teams Moose faced in those games, the White Sox and Diamondbacks, comprise half of the four worst offensive teams in baseball. The Yankees have visited Colorado during the regular season once before, in 2002. In those three games, the two teams scored a total of 70 runs. Coors Field isn't quite the launching pad it was then thanks to the humidor (the 2002 park factor was 121 compared to 107 for 2006 and 2007), but I don't think it's out of the question to expect that kind of game again tonight.
Colorado Rockies
2006 Record: 76-86 (.469)
2006 Pythagorean Record: 81-81 (.500)
Manager: Clint Hurdle
General Manager: Dan O'Dowd
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Coors Field (107/107)
Who's Replacing Whom?
Trot Tulowitzki replaces Clint Barmes
Willy Taveras replaces Choo Freeman and a lot of Cory Sullivan
Kaz Matsui cuts into Jamey Carroll's playing time
Chris Iannetta replaces Danny Ardoin, J. D. Closser, and Miguel Ojeda
Jeff Baker replaces Luis A. Gonzalez
Jason Hirsh replaces Jason Jennings
Rodrigo Lopez replaces Byung-Hyun Kim
LaTroy Hawkins replaces Jose Mesa
Jorge Julio replaces Ray King
Taylor Buchholz replaces Ramon Ramirez (minors)
Manuel Corpas takes over David Cortes's innings
Jeremy Affeldt replaces Scott Dohmann's innings
25-man Roster:
1B Todd Helton (L)
2B Kazuo Matsui (S)
SS Troy Tulowitzki (R)
3B Garrett Atkins (R)
C Yorvit Torrealba (R)
RF Brad Hawpe (L)
CF Willy Taveras (R)
LF Matt Holliday (L)
Bench:
R - Jeff Baker (OF)
R - Jamey Carroll (IF)
R - Chris Iannetta (C)
R - Ryan Spilborghs (OF)
L - Cory Sullivan (OF)
Rotation:
L - Jeff Francis
R - Rodrigo Lopez
R - Josh Fogg
R - Jason Hirsh
R - Aaron Cook
Bullpen:
L - Brian Fuentes
R - Manny Corpas
L - Jeremy Affeldt
R - LaTroy Hawkins
L - Tom Martin
R - Jorge Julio
R - Taylor Buchholz
15-day DL: R - Zach McClellan
Typical Lineup:
R Willy Taveras (CF)
S Kazuo Matsui (2B)
R Matt Holliday (LF)
L Todd Helton (1B)
R Garrett Atkins (3B)
L Brad Hawpe (RF)
R Troy Tulowitzki (SS)
R Yorvit Torrealba (C)
You sound like Mark.
Be sure to check out Bad Altitude on the sidebar for the Colorado perspective on this series.
I hope Phillips gets that chance. All he's ever done at AAA is hit, so maybe the 2nd time up is a charm.
if joe jerks him in and out of the lineup with miggy, i predict we're going to have to go get another first baseman
yeah, i hope he goes to the game! my best friend from growing up in NY lives in denver but won't be making any of the games, unfortunately.
it will be fun to check on the comments over there -- if anyone actually posts...
Nice to have a catcher. 19 years old. Any bets on who is better right now, this minute: Nieves or Zhang? ;)
I was surprised that their favorite players are Japanese, by the way. I figured Chinese players would not particularly like Japanese players. To put it mildly.
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Rodriguez 3B
Posada 1B
Matsui LF
Cano 2B
Nieves C
Mussina P
Meanwhile, HA! to the Blue Jays so far. ;-)
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2909764
Matsui 2B
Holliday LF
Helton 1B
Atkins 3B
Hawpe RF
Tulowitzki SS
Torrealba C
Fogg P
Baseball may end up being the only successful bridge between China and Japan....
Andy Phillips has been called up and Josh Phelps designated for assignment. As a Rule 5 pick, Phelps has to clear waivers then be offered back to Baltimore. Only then could the Yankees outright him if they wanted to. Joe Torre said the Yankees wanted Phillips because he was a better glove and can do more things offensively. Phillips will be in the lineup tomorrow
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Oh dear, Weeping will be so disappointed ...
He won't be a Yankee anymore. Someone will claim him and if no one does, the O's will definitely take him back, I imagine. They need to try everything they can to find players. It's also noteworthy that Phillips won't be around long if he doesn't hit from Day One. If he takes a while to get into a groove, he'll be gone too. This is his last chance. The Yankees will swing a deal for Hillenbrand or something and Phillips will go back to SWB.
Hillenbrand is not really any better than Phelps or Phillips at this point, but he has history which makes him a veteran commodity in the Joe Torre clubhouse. I'd be all for Phillips the rest of the year, or Cairo for that matter. It really makes no difference as long as the other guys are mashing.
If it were me, I would keep Phelps on the club as a PH and send Basak down. But then, what do I know.
Actually, I'd rather give Eric Duncan his shot in the Bronx, although he hasn't really earned it. Just try it out. It's time to doo doo or get off the pot with him.
if we can score ten runs a game with Cairo at first, I'll grant you your point. if not, it could easily cost us, say, two games in the standings--a HUGE difference, given where we are right now.....
sorry, but that "it makes no difference" pushes all my buttons--it just seems so thoughtless. we've already gone through one stretch this year where we had trouble scoring runs......
re: duncan, he's been dealing with some wrist problems, IIRC
he seemed like a pretty big douche when he was in toronto ...
It makes a slight difference when you consider that a game or two in the standings may rest on a few runs. The problem with that thinking is that we need to acquire a better player in all likelihood to assure that the runs we lose with either Cairo or Phillips are produced. That means giving something up. Is there anything out there that GUARANTEES that you will get those precious few runs that doesn't mean giving up a young player for a 6 month rental?
I think the answer is likely no. I also think that we are in serious serious trouble if we are worried about the few runs that Cairo or Phillips would cost us. If we can't win the wild card with the team we have, how will we expect to win the World Series. That's the goal isn't it? If things are so bleak that we are sweating Hillenbrand vs. Cairo/Phillips then we have to rethink our $200 million.
So instead of bringing up a hot, confident hitter, we bring up a guy who may well be pressing at Scranton, and who'll be pressing even more knowing it may be his last shot at the show.
He'll k 4 times in some game this week, Torre'll bury him, and the haters will get dey hate on . . . hmmm, this all seems so familiar . . .
Signing Hillenbrand at any cost would make me very nuts. Screw that guy.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2909579
81 pitches!
I always liked Andy Phillips. I'll be rooting for him.
I like Miggy, too, but I'm relieved that the Yanks realize he's best in small doses.
The hot rumor today is that the Yanks are interested in Griffey, but that doesn't make sense to me. I still think if the Yanks and Reds are talking, it's Scott Hatteberg on the block.
I don't have the enhanced version up, do you?
67 or Dunn
it's absolutely pouring here in the Atl. rain delay at The Ted...
70 i told you that zone isn't accurate.
Moose had better pitch his butt off today.
And isn't Cashman trying to go younger? It's not like the Yanks need a star to get buns in the seats, like some teams. If the Reds trade Griffey, there will be tumbleweeds rolling through their bleachers the rest of the season.
And I really, really hope Andy does well and pushes out Minky...but realistically, I think the Yanks will be trading for a first baseman. Not a DH. Hatteberg has a good glove (he was Baseball Think Factory's GG pick last year), and has a better stick than Minky.
Gotta start cashing in now, though. Preferably before Nieves comes up...
I would have killed to see Jr. in pinstripes about 7-8 years ago.
Now? meh.
Since losing a no-hitter with two outs in the ninth inning in Oakland on June 7, Schilling is 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA. In those two starts, he's given up 19 hits over 9 1/3 innings.
AHHH, the big Schill with a >10ERA, life as it should be.
In the end, there's no reason to do it. It isn't a need right now.
I'd trade Nieves & our 1B situation for a real 1B & Yogi BUCing in a second...
One option was trading Cano and Hughes for Miggy Cabrera. The other was acquiring Lowell and Andruw Jones in the off-season and dumping Damon (while eating a whole bunch of his salary).
I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but that just seemed like a d!ck move.
go braves!
This goes back to the winter conversations about converting Matsui to 1B, moving Damon to LF & Melk to CF.... could still do that now, with Dunn (or Phelps, up until a few hours ago) at DH...
The good news- one less thing for Jimmy Dean to complain about
JOSH FREAKIN' FOGG?!!!
his eqa for the last 3 years has been: .292, .292, .291
his WARP was 7.3, 6.0, 5.4
it seems nothing but premature to extrapolate from half a season in which damon has essentially been dinged up since the opening game
I get it. You have nothing at all to back up your assertions. No RATE2, no evidence about how many runs Damon's arm costs, nothing.
Okay, I'll take your own personal observations as gospel, that seems rational.
167 Exactly, that's what I said, that I'd prefer his defense to Melky's. Good reading.
There's rumors he's not going to start any of the NL games, meaning if we DL'd him, we'd essentially get 6 of his 15 days off for free
we're rolling right now, and it's not because of anything he's doing. DL him and get him healthy ...
175 Hell ya, red up that ass.
This is it, we gotta score a run or two this inning.
I'm amazed how far that ball travelled.
It didn't look like so much off the bat.
Ichiro Suzuki 138
Hideki Matsui 130
Kenji Johjima 121
Akinori Iwamura 118
Kazuo Matsui 113
Tadahito Iguchi 82
So Taguchi 115
You haven't come up with anything so far. All you can say is that everybody else in the world should defer to your personal experience of Johnny Damon. And you seem either surprised or angry when everybody doesn't.
171
well, i hate to bring this up, but yes, there is statistical analysis about outfielder arms (seriously, it took me 30 seconds to find the relevant study, would it kill people to at least attempt to answer their own obvious questions around here?) ... and yes, damon's arm is just plain bad
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/best-outfield-arms-of-2006/
and here's something similar from 2005, note that damon and williams were about equally awful
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/more-guns-in-the-outfield-center-and-left-field/
OTOH, Rate2 is a nifty stat, but a play-by-play based stat, like the +/- in the Fielding Bible, might be a bit more telling. Anyone have a copy of the '07 Fielding Bible handy?
My own guess is that there are so few situations where Damon's arm comes into play to prevent runs, that ultimately his crappy arm doesn't matter too much. But that's just speculation on my part.
It does seem like he's been good lately, but I'm probably wrong.
So, Damon's arm seems to have cost about five runs last year. That's not surprising. This year his coverage of CF was on track to save 13 runs, though probably he wouldn't have actually done that since he'd never done it before. All told, he's likely to be a slightly below average CFer.
What is it with "It's Tricky?" The independent league game we saw earlier tonight played the song and tonight it's at Coors Field.
And I hadn't heard it in years.
Is there currently some Run-DMC revival I'm not aware of?
Are you kidding me????
And yes, I'm aware of the borderline fifth starter and utility player we got in the deal. That made it less impressive.
220/211 Right, cult of basebaal is the dick. cool.
It's time to scratch out a couple of runs.
A man, you will note, that we didn't trade for a middle reliever because we wanted some kind of value. But thats neither here nor there.
222 Kaz Matsui is hardly terrible since going to Colorado. He's currently tied for 11th in the Majors for 2nd baseman VORP. He also missed a bunch of time with an injury so that number would be a lot better given more playing time.
RIYank and the others are good guys, even where there's disagreement. There can be pleasant ways to agree to disagree (and many people do that here), but name-calling seems easier for you.
Nicely done.
Okay, this would be a good inning to get a couple of baserunners and then sit on a hanging curve.
April .361/.395/.472
May .219/.242/.344
June .351/.373/.579
His sample size from last season, plus the two good months this season when he's been healthy are the real Kaz Matsui. It just took him a while.
We shoulda grabbed Chad Moeller when the Reds DFA'd him earlier this year. He sucks, but he's better than Nieves. Maybe they'll throw him in on the Griffey deal. ;-)
I sure wish we hadn't traded Dioner Navarro for the Unit.
242 Thanks! I liked Guiel. Didn't really want him back this year, but I hope he does well. Anyone who hung around the minors ten years waiting for his chance deserves some reward.
Villone warming, at least this will give a chance to see what he's got before they have to decide which reliever to dump.
Nice job, Melk, nice job!
also, i'm not against stats in any way, but when most of us watch every single yankee game, do we really have to look up stats to show that damon's arm is awful and hurts the yankees?
How could you look at that pitch.
Damn it.
Paging Franky Cervilli... Please hurry it up...
All these fly balls.
Just kidding. :) I meant the question to be silly. I'm a silly person, dontchaknow.
Yes!!!
It went through!!
Come on, Alex!
Somehow it all seems to come down to...
Take the walk.
It's on you, Jorgie!
Basehit up the middle, that's all we need.
Solid contact!
But okay, I'll take this!
Just no lazy fly balls here, thank you very much.
Watch it there, pitcher!
Protect, Jorgie, protect!
Well, he hit it hard.
Nothing to do about that.
In years past Jorgie would have been much easier to strike out in that spot, say, with a breaking ball in the dirt.
He's really having some season.
The worst ever instance I can think of was a game against Boston at the fens two years ago. He took a curve for strike one, turned around, bitched. Took a curve for strike two, same exact spot. Turned around, bitched. Took the same damn pitch, bitched, and walked way.
Game of inches and all that.
Sweet Jesus.
That screeching person?
Yeah, it's so, dare I say it, bush-sounding.
So, who will hit for Bruney? I'm betting on Cairo.
Poke it into left!
Damn it.
Oh my God, Hideki!!
Better than a poke into left!!
Yaaaaayyyyyyy!
robbie is SUCKING
Robby.
I was thinking that Thompson could pinch hit for Bruney. You'd want a fast righty up against Fuentes.
But ahem, 363.
374 Any non-out event will do, really. ;)
Damn it.
Damn it.
We Want a Non-Out Event!
Who replaced Miggy Mantle with Miggy Minky? Dammit.
I think that may be a lateral move.
One of those games. Carp.
We'll have to light 'em up tomorrow. See youse.
There's always tomorrow.
damnit, horrible game
Freakin'.
Fogg.
FOGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fogg it all, I'm going to bed. Let's blow em out tomorrow.
C'est la vie.
Frustrating, yes, but we were tight defensively and Moose pitched another nice game.
We'll win the series, don't worry.
That's awful.
No more Nieves, please. Not that it was his fault, but he certainly didn't help the cause. 0-2 and batting .116 makes you a scapegoat when things don't work on any given night. Posada, Jeter, and A-Rod actually left more guys on base.
That's also the difference in the game, I think.
He's testing my faith, but I really want to believe in him and want him to succeed.
He's got so much talent that I think it would just be tragic to see him wind up a mediocre player.
He could be great.
But the two previous ones weren't, is all my point is.
Yes, it has been phenomenal, but I don't think the two strike outs were about discipline so much as being fooled. Both times on breaking balls.
I was contributing to the comment made above.
I'm not out to get the guy, really.
It's too easy to blame the inconsistent offense on individual players, or to focus on strikeouts (ie, by A-Rod). inconsistent offenses are the product of lineups with holes in them, which will be exposed throughout the season.
goodnight.
Also, A-Rod will too drive in 300 runs.
So, we'll have to hit the crap out of the ball tomorrow.
And you're wrong--there is no way A-Rod drives in more than 250 this year.
What's a "hole?" and don't even great teams have holes, in the sense of weaker members of their order?
:)
What exactly does that mean?
(Yeah, I know--no tiny url.)
What's toughest is that this was our 20th loss in games decided by 2 runs or less, versus only 6 wins. Ouch. That needs to get better.
As to replacement level, I guess that's still not too clear to me what it actually means or how it's established.
Hmmm.
You say the team threw away outs, but that's not literally true. Those players had a statistical chance of getting a hit. At what point does "lower chance of getting a hit than Alex Rodriguez" become "giving away at-bats?"
You see the nature of my problem?
It seems slippery slope or something.
"This team loses 3-1 to the rockies not so much b/c A-Rod strikes out twice (he did contribute to the one run scored), but because the team threw away about about 10 outs with bad batters. "
Is there truly a scientific way of establishing the cause of a team's losing any one particular baseball game?
This game in particular?
"How Do We Define Replacement Level?
Replacement level is the expected level of performance the average team can obtain if it needs to replace a starting player at minimal cost.
Individual replacements can perform above or below the expected level, but that does not change what the expectation was at the time of the decision.
Specific teams may have better-than replacement level players available in their own systems. This does not change the concept of replacement level -- it shows that team context is important when evaluating particular decisions. If all teams had better-than replacement-level players easily available, then that would indicate that your level is set too low. "
Ok, so replacement level is relative/team-specific, if I understand this correctly.
But it still sounds pretty metaphysical: how can you compare Cairo, say, with his replacement from AAA? I mean, it's still just an expectation, not a guarantee.
The real question is how accurate such expectations are or can be, isn't it?
And I understand your perspective.
My perspective is that Alex had a couple of pitches to really drive in both of those ab where he struck out but failed to swing at them and thus left himself zero chance of getting a hit.
It happens, I understand that, but to me, if you talk about giving away ab, that's what comes readily to mind.
Bonds, for instance, in his big year, never got pitches to hit, but when he did, he never missed them.
The fact that Alex had those pitches and didn't even swing at them is noticable to me, is all I'm saying, and looking back at the game, those were two big opportunities squandered, the ones that got away, as it were.
Doesn't mean I think Alex is a bum, just that had he had four quality ab (which isn't that unreasonable a request) rather than two, things might have been different.
Likewise, I have a hard team believing that anything except a rotting corpse would perform worst than Nieves.
Similarly (though not really a replacement level argument), I am convinced that if they kept Phelps and plugged him into DH, he would have a very good chance to outhit Damon, and there is no defensive penalty at DH.
That's his role on the team. I expect nothing from Nieves, so don't even bother criticising him. He is what he is.
Who knows how someone will perform until they do (or don't)?
My point is that I too expect nothing from Nieves, and that's exactly the problem. This team has too many players for who we are asked simply to expect nothing because 'that's what they are.' And if A-Rod doesn;t pick them up by hitting 100 HRs, it's his fault b/c he is the big man.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this, because I think that whole approach is goofy. We just start from different assumptions and expectations, I guess.
It's fair game to grumble about that one pitch, isn't it, even if the rest of the game he pitched well?
Well that's how I feel about those two ab from Alex. He can't will himself to get a hit, but he can give himself the best chance to, which means swinging at good pitches rather than bad ones.
He couldn't execute in two ab, which was kind of big, because it's his job to execute.
Just as when you look back over a pitcher's game and feel stung by that meatball your guy threw, I feel stung by that meatball Alex didn't even offer at, and wonder about what might have been.
I guess it seems to me that compared to most major league teams, we have enough talent to compensate for say, Cairo and Melky and to be patient with Cano, because they make other contributions to the team. I'm not apologizing for Nieves.
That makes a great deal of sense to me. Ultimately, it would be nice to have both four quality ab from Alex and a deeper roster.
No argument there.
My interest is in maximizing the talent available whereas yours is maximizing available talent.
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