Robbie himself acknowledged that pitchers were jamming him inside earlier this year. Scouts seemed to have the book on him.

He predicted that once he could get around on these pitches, they'd start moving both in and out on him again, and he'd be better going forward.

We are seeing signs of life from him obviously, and I do seem to remember seeing him go to the opposite field a bit more recently.

Funny that this article was written the day after Robbie had a huge double in extra innings to the opposite field at Yankee Stadium that was about a foot away from being a HR.

But it was pretty telling, I had been saying it all through his slump that it looked like, especially at Yankee Stadium, that Cano was pulling off of balls that he normally drove into that huge gap in LCF. Maybe this was to compensate for pitchers pounding him inside.

We've discussed this question countless times during game threads throughout the season, so obviously, I think it is a very relevant one. At the beginning of the season, pitchers weren't necessarily throwing inside to Cano. They were simply throwing him breaking balls to get ahead, followed by fastballs out of the zone to put him away. For whatever reason, Cano started the year swinging at EVERYTHING. He was never patient, but usually swung mostly at strikes. Over the past few weeks, Cano has started to revert back to form. He seems to be on both fastballs and off speed pitchers when they are over the plate, and more frequently is laying off the waste pitches. I don't really think the change is the result of pitching patterns as much as Cano being able to lay off the balls no where near the zone.

Because he isn't patient, it is very difficult to get a read on Cano's future. Even for great hitters, batting average can fluctuate wildly, so one can't be comfortable projecting Cano well into the future. Still, I think it is clear that he has impressive talent on both sides of the ball, so I wouldn't discount his ceiling because of the obvious limitations that he currently has.

2 He doubled the other way on Saturday as well off Armas.

4 Also, in the last game in Toronto I believe, he doubled to all three fields. In other words, if you go off of Cano's first 6 weeks, you can pretty much prescribe any reason for his poor production. The next few weeks will probably tell us more about Cano than will looking back.

The thing that bugs me most about Cano is that at times he can look so good up there, and then in one at-bat he can look so bad. It gives me the impression that he doesn't have a real plan each-and-every time he comes to bat.

I love Cano and I'm a big fan of his, but he has got to stop swinging at the down and in pitches that are at his ankles.

Cano's number one comparable (according to BP) going into the year was Carlos Baerga. That sounds good, but Baerga's last good hitting season was when he was 26, and he was done as a full-time player at 29.

If Cano develops some more patience, then I think he could end up somewhere in-between Baerga and the guy people always compare him to, Rod Carew. (Carew is his #2 comparable according to BP.) I don't think Cano will be a Hall of Famer, but a star player for a decade or so sounds about right. And fine with me!

So what track is Cano on, the Baerga track or the Carew track?

Baerga
Age 21 - 1 BB every 19.5 ABs
Age 22 - 1 BB every 12.4 ABs* (career best)
Age 23 - 1 BB every 18.8 ABs
Age 24 - 1 BB every 18.4 ABs
Age 25 - 1 BB every 44.2 ABs(!) (1994)
Age 26 - 1 BB every 15.9 ABs
Age 27 - 1 BB every 28.2 ABs
Age 28 - 1 BB every 23.4 ABs
Age 29 - 1 BB every 21.3 ABs

Carew
Age 21 - 1 BB every 13.9 ABs
Age 22 - 1 BB every 17.7 ABs
Age 23 - 1 BB every 12.4 ABs
Age 24 - 1 BB every 17.4 ABs
Age 25 - 1 BB every 12.8 ABs
Age 26 - 1 BB every 12.4 ABs
Age 27 - 1 BB every 9.4 ABs
Age 28 - 1 BB every 8.1 ABs
Age 29 - 1 BB every 8.6 ABs

(Carew had great BB/AB ratios every year thereafter, and at age 39, walked 64 times. He finished his career with a K:BB ratio of almost one: 1028 K, 1018 BB.)

Finally, here's Cano:

Age 22 - 1 BB every 32.6 ABs
Age 23 - 1 BB every 26.8 ABs
Age 24 - 1 BB every 21.3 ABs

The trend is going the right way, but Robbie still has a long way to go. I hope he makes it there.

I think Cano is going to be great. This discussion reminds me of the doubts about Bernie at the same point in his career.
Bernie showed signs of greatness but many observers dwelled on the holes in his game: his spaciness on the base paths, his occasionally odd routes to fly balls, his less than cannon arm. Bernie's instincts, his baseball IQ were scrutinized.
Still, Bernie became a borderline Hall of Famer and I expect similar greatness from Cano despite his flaws.
Like Bernie back in his day, Robbie can hit with the best of them. Patience does not come easily to Cano, but he approaches hitting with a superstar's insouciance.
As much as I love watching Giambi and Abreu grind pitchers into the ground with their patience, step-up-and-swing guys like Cano can also help win ballgames and championships not waiting for the perfect pitch.

8 "step-up-and-swing guys like Cano can also help win ballgames and championships not waiting for the perfect pitch."

Very true Sliced, but there's a fine line between that and hacking. And if Cano hacks too much, he's going to go nowhere, because pitchers know they can throw him anything and he'll swing at it.

I think Cano can beat hacking. Shoot, if Mr. "Swing and a miss, he struck out on a slider away" Soriano can cut down on his hacking, then Cano can.

A couple of points:

3 Cano is more patient this year than ever before. I actually think that's at fault. He used to crush iirc a lot of 1st ball fat pitches. Now it seems he has to take sign on the first pitch and ends up behind in the count.

Second, re the article, it's useless to say what Cano does and does not do at the Stadium. If you want to talk power to lf, talk his whole body of hitting home and away. I say this b/c Robbie's always been much weaker at home -- iirc for his career he's got a 900ops away, 750 at home. It's a bit of a sleight of hand to say his power's dropped when it's never been very good at home.

I'll add regarding his taking the first pitch more often this year, is that pt of the problem is that Robbie's learning to hit this year. What I mean is that he never had to learn to, for ex, hit w/ 2 strikes before, since he rarely got that far in the count. That's what's behind the increase in k's this year.

I do think that he is learning, and will continue to learn, to take walks, and that he will become better at hitting with 2 strikes eg.

10 Does anyone else wonder if whether he lower Home OPS is due to him trying to pull the ball into the short porch instead of playing to his strength and driving it the other way? Anyone know whether the hit charts bear this out?

8 The problem with the Bernie comparison is that the one thing Cano lacks Bernie alway had--patience. Players will often develop power as their body bulks up naturally (??) over time, and some players will even become better baserunners even though they rarely add speed. They may even over time become more competent fielders. But in general hitters do not tend to develop much more patience over time (with some notable exceptions, like Sosa).

I think that Cano is what we have seen, a high average low OBP guy with a little pop. In really good years he'll hit .850-.900 OPS, and in down years he'll be closer to .750. But as we discussed in another thread, if you second baseman averages about .800 OPS, you could have worse problems.

I apologize for the completely off-topic comment but...

I have 1 extra bleacher seat for tonight.
email is jen AT nosenseworrying DOT com

Baseball Reference has Joe Mauer as most similar to Robbie, right ahead of Bill Dickey & Yogi Berra. Some pretty good company.

I'd be satisified if he was another Willie Randolp -- good glove, decent bat.

I wonder if Proctor is jealous of Pat Venditte, just think how much work Scotty good get in if he could use both arms.

13 Continuing the Bernie reference--this is what made Cabrera so intriguing last year: a young switch-hitting OF who seemed suddenly to have lots of patience, yet little power. If you compare their numbers:

Melky's first full season (2006)
Age 22, G 130, AB 460, BA .280, OBP .360, SLG .391, OPS+ 100

Bernie's first three seasons (1991-3)

Age 22, G 85, AB 320, BA .238, OBP .336, SLG .350, OPS+ 91
Age 23, G 62, AB 261, BA .280, OBP .354, SLG .406, OPS+ 114
Age 24, G 139, AB 567, BA .268, OBP .333, SLG .400, OPS+ 98

The question is, was last year the real Melky, or an anomaly?

The thing with A-Rod is he brings a lOT of baggage to a team, and a good 75 percent of it is his own doing. He's a media whore, who, up until this year at least, rarely if ever thought about what he was going to say. He said a lot of things that might have sounded good in his mind, but came off miserably in sound bites. Even the mistress in Toronto, where I completely disagree with the Post on, could he have possibly been any less discreet? I mean dude, wear a damn hat.

A black cloud seems to follow A-Rod around, and when he's not playing like a top ten player in baseball (2006) it starts to become suffocating. And people get pissed off.

17 Huh? Is this in reference to something?

17 Yeah, where did all that come from?

"Steven Goldman has some cherce words for the Yankee fans who bashed Alex Rodriguez last year;"

913 and around the horn, all excellent points re: Cano.

I doubt Cano will ever learn to be as patient as, say, Boggs, but I don't think he has to.
Key to Boggs's success was his ability to foul off borderline strikes, and I'm not sure if Cano has that knack.
Cano, to me, is more of a Tony Gwynn type hitter: one whose success will be due more to his superior ability to see and hit a baseball than a reliance on the pitcher making a mistake.
I'm optimistic about Cano's future because I think he has the raw talent to be a Gwynn'esque hitter, and even if he lacks Boggs'esque patience, he can become a smarter hitter.

20 Ah, I see.

15 "Switch-pitching? You can do that? Gator, can you teach me to throw lefty, please? Oh boy!"

16 The difference might be that, at age 22 and age 23 in Columbus, Bernie slugged .453 (in 306 ABs) and then .485 (in 363 ABs). Outside of his great start in Columbus in '06 (.566 SLG, but in only 122 ABs), the highest Melky ever slugged before that was .462, in 171 ABs in low-A (he was 20). The only time Melky ever showed power at an advanced level was those 122 ABs in '06. And those numbers are so far out of line with everything he's done elsewhere, they scream "outlier!".

I think Melky can slug .450 in the bigs, but I'll be pleasantly surprised if he ever slugs more than that. Average AL CF is hitting .262/.333/.408 (.741 OPS) - Melky ought to be able to out-hit that, and with stellar defense, could be a real asset in CF.

Cano isn't gonna hit .342 every year... or probably ever again. That's hard to do. I think he will gain enough patience that, due to relatively high BAs (.300-ish), he can post a league-average OBP. Add in a dash of power, and for a 2B, that's pretty darned good.

He's young. He could improve, or he could stagnate... we just don't know. He's not a finished product.

23 "And those numbers are so far out of line with everything he's done elsewhere, they scream "outlier!"."

Yep!

You're right, about Melky slugging around .450. In that case, he pretty much has to be a CF, because otherwise his production wil not hold up for a corner man. The good news, he has flashed some leather in center, with a few exceptions.

24 That's the best part of watching Cano and Melky. Neither is a finished product yet - both still have room to grow. When the last time we as fans got watch a Yankee hitter as young as Cano (24) (or Melky - 22!) who hadn't quite developed yet? I think it was Bernie. That was a long time ago.

26 We've had our share of 28 year olds who "just needed a little more time" to become good players. But no one all that young.

That would be the Goldman who just suggested we trade A-rod:
http://www.nysun.com/article/55786

20,28 Oh, so it is a "whatever" thing. Thanks >;)

26 Nick Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Ricky Ledee, Juan Rivera

There have 'unfinished products' and 'prospects' since 1992. Some were traded, some never really developed. But in general, you're point is well taken.

28 Yes, he argued that A-Rod should be traded because his value was very high now AND he figures A-Rod will opt out after the season. That has nothing to do with people complained incessantly about A-Rod last year, argued that he should be dumped for little or nothing, and booed him because he was only having about the fifth best season ever by a Yankee 3B instead of the best season ever by a Yankee 3B.

Apples and oranges.

31 To continue--Goldman had "cherce words" for those who complained bashed A-Rod qua A-Rod; his argument about trading A-Rod has nothing to do with A-Rod the individual (in fact, his argument is based on the immense value of A-Rod as a player, not his supposed shortcomings) but everything to do with building the best team for the future (in the context of what was a 14 game deficit in the division, 10 or so in the WC race).

31 I think the chance of getting good value back is minimal because of Arod's contract, the fact that it's Arod, the level of Arod's skills, and the fact that it's the Yankees. IIRC all those times Goldman bashed the trade-Arod-for-a-handful-of-beans folks he managed not to say "let's trade Arod for good value", presumably because of the above.

33 Point well taken, and you may be right that Goldman miscalcualtes what can be had for A-Rod given his current contract. But I still think you have to put his comments about last year into last year's context: in the heat of penant/play-off it made no sense to trade A-Rod, and it made almost as little sense to boo him for only having a merely excellent season instead of an outstanding season.

This year the odds of making the playoffs are much lower (and indeed, this win streak may be a chimera, and by the All-Star break the team could be back where they were a week or so ago). In the context of 1] no chance to make the play-offs this year--and assuming that 2] A-Rod walks after this year--trading him now when his value is high does make a certain amount of sense. Of course, this rests on two aforementioned assumptions.

In any case, I think it is a bit unfair to argue that Goldmans's criticism of the boobs who booed A-Rod last year is substantially contradicted by his argument that it's time to move him this year.

McCarron wrote in today's Daily Rues about the "Spirit of '78" and how people have been mentioning, if not hoping, that this team resembles that. Here's an interesting quote from that article:

{One thing will surely be different this year from 1978 - the '78 team rallied with the media spotlight lessened because some newspapers didn't publish during a late-summer strike. "That was very relaxing," Graig Nettles said. "We didn't get peppered with questions, 'Can we do it, can we not do it?'"}

Would we be so lucky to repeat THAT aspect of '78. I suspect that even a team like the
the Pirates would be more competitive if not for vendettas from local sports pages (certainly not to excuse or identify their poor fundamentals by saying the reporters are to blame).

That said, if the Yanks actually do make a strong showing and make the playoffs, it will certainly say something about the character of the team in general, especially with an active vendetta in the media against this team. And I certainly hope the papers don't try to take ANY credit for such a turnaround, though I know they'll act like they saw it coming before anyone else. That's what McCarron's and Goldman's article kinda remind me of.

35 I think a significant difference between the two years is that Ron Guidry basically won every game in 1978--no matter how bad things got every five games you could count on a win. This year there have been stretches when it's not clear where the wins will come from.

A-Rod has a no trade clause, trading him would be very difficult. Besides, what are you going to get for a guy who, if traded, would most likely be an extremely expensive free agent at the end of the year.

Besides, I want Alex to hit homerun #800 in pinstripes. For all his "baggage" he also comes with lots of production.

34 "I think it is a bit unfair to argue that Goldmans's criticism"

I didn't intend to do so. Just don't think much of his analysis.

36 Sure, that was pointed out as well and likely is the biggest difference, but I don't underestimate the impact the media has on a team's temperment. Especially if you consider how some players absolutely refuse to speak to the media at all.

If Jeter gives a typically generic soundbite, is it because that's the type of personality he has or is it because he doesn't want to deal with the emotional interference? Look how it impacted A-Rod last year, and especially how it manipulated the stadium customers. A big difference now is he doesn't give a crap what the reporters say or write (even told them so.)

It's more significant now than ever, in my opinion, especially when you consider the outlets that these people are able to reach (E@#%, et al). That's not saying media pressure has never existed or may never have been rough, but that the boundaries between reporting and performing are more blurred than ever and have crossed into each others' paths more than ever. So it goes.

That Griddle link on "Red Klotz's Favorite Baseball Team" is rather funny by the way, check it out...

17 Can you tell me why I should give a crap about A-Rod's "baggage?" Does it affect his OPS? Does it mean the team wins fewer games?

If not, why should I care if newspapers write stories about him, or if he is seen in public with a woman who isn't his wife?

35 "And I certainly hope the papers don't try to take ANY credit for such a turnaround, though I know they'll act like they saw it coming before anyone else."

see today's ny post. here's the story's headline:"YANKS' SURGE STARTED WITH 'STRAY-ROD'"

http://tinyurl.com/3265ld

the article starts by coyly brushing away any correlation... after putting it in bold print above that sentence.

ugh.

i'd opt out if i were him.

it'd suck for us, but i wouldn't blame him if he did.

41 I actually agree with you. But I do wonder if thee are limits to what we should tolerate off the field--or put another way, should some off the field behavior fair game for the press to cover? Would it be appropriate for the press to report if A-Rod beat his wife or collected kiddie porn? OK, those are illegalities. What about legal but unsavory behavior? What if A-Rod was photographed attending a neo-Nazi rally in full SS gear? Would the team be under any moral obligation to sever ties with such a player, or does on field performance determine everything?

41 yeah, schteeve, i'm with you. who cares indeed.

my only concern is that rodriguez will tire of the harassment and opt out to get away from the circus. unless he sticks around to get his ring and watch as the media choke on it...

...which i'd imagine would be pretty satisfying.

keep your fingers crossed.

43 i see where you're going, but i can't think of any realistic legal situation that he'd put himself in that would tarnish his image, this extracurricular endeavor aside.

i don't see him pulling an elijah dukes or even a brett myers/julio lugo (<-- allegedly), but i could be wrong, obviously.

there is a line, but where exactly that lies is a bit fuzzy.

according to the SWB blog, Joba Chamberlain is following Kennedy to AA ... damn, it's good to be excited about having pitching prospects worth getting excited about ...

i just wanna be able to cheer and chant for someone named joba ... jo-ba!, Jo-Ba!, JO-BA!

43 If A-Rod was seen wearing Nazi garb and Heil Hitlering, the Yankees would be insane not to release him on the spot and try to void his contract. If they didn't, almost everyone in the nation would protest the Yankees, and they would ruin the most valuable sports related brand in the world.

But this is being seen in public with a woman who isn't his wife. Not being in agreement with a political movement that slaughtered hundreds of thousands of millions of innocent people.

First, being seen in public with people who aren't your wife, is basically nothing. Everyone who assumes that he's having an affair is making a pretty big leap. I have lunch all the time with women who aren't my fiance, and I assure you I'm not cheating.

But this is all off the point. The point is, there are people who say that the Yankees should get rid of A-Rod or not try to re-sign him if he opts out, because of the "baggage" he brings. I find this argument insane, because here are some other things he brings:

An EQA of .354

Like, 65 home runs

An OBP of .407

A 2007 cost to the Yankees of $17million which is less than what they are paying Jeter, Giambi and Clemens this year, and only slightly more than what they're paying Abreu, Damon and Mussina, and for that matter only $7 million more than what they're paying Carl Pavano to sit around and hook up with FHM Hometown Hotties, or whatever.

So as always, when it comes to Yankee fans who think the Yankees would be somehow better off without A-Rod, I do not get it.

48 On top of that, I have two questions concerning their gatekeeper status:

A.) Do we automatically accept what the papers consider the bar for acceptable behavior off-field, and if so

B.) Do they really believe (and accept for themselves) that same standard of behavior in their own professional and/or personal lives?

44 "my only concern is that rodriguez will tire of the harassment and opt out to get away from the circus. unless he sticks around to get his ring and watch as the media choke on it..."

True dat! And I'd imagine the reason they'd choke on it was because A-Rod grabbed them by their necks and shoved his shiny new WS ring down their throats! Wouldn't blame him for it one bit! HAHA!

As Beavis & Butthead would say..."heh heh, that'd be COOL!"

48 Slow down chief, I agree with you. I was just trying to move the question beyond the specific example (A-Rod and the Blonde) to a more general philosophical discussion. I do occasionally get a little bothered by statements that "it doesn't matter what X does off the field as long as he slugs .600." On RiverAveBlues there is a similar debate about the New Yankee Stadium: some posters argue that tearing down the old ballpark is perfectly fine because that's what the market demands; others counter that we should subscribe to more than just market forces and/or unfettered capitalism.

I am a little sick of the A-Rod talk - only because he has proven his worthiness - seemed to learned some lessons this year (his whole approach has humbled) and has made the adjustment-

back to Cano- I only worry about one his impatience on one pitch- I think it is the HIGH FASTBALL that is his downfall- I challenge you to find me an 0-2 or 1-2 letterhigh that he has let go- the low and in is nasty for any lefty and risky for any pitcher - so I don't mind that aggressiveness.

51 Ok, Lieutenant.

51 Nothing personal, and I wasn't disagreeing with you or saying you were in the anti A-Rod camp. Just building on your point.

53 ; )

I guess everyone has moved to the new threads by now...