Small consolation...thank you Oakland!!!

I went to bed at 9:30 last night -- tired & I didn't feel like watching yet another zombie game by the Yankees.

I'll feel slightly better with Clippard, who seems to at least have some guile and fight in him.

I never thought I'd see the yanks throwing two goofy looking rookie righthanders out there two nights in a row, that's for sure.

I don't understand why Torre keeps panic managing. "Uh-oh, kid's in trouble already, got to pull him and bring in someone with a belly full of guts. Let's see, how about Villone?" DeSalvo isn't going to be a star, but he could be a league average pitcher, if he's ever given the chance to learn how to work out of trouble in the bigs.

All Torre is doing by continuing to panic manage is to send a message of desperation to the team, and especially to a young pitcher who might be useful. I don't understand why a guy who is such a great communicator doesn't see this.

Frankly, it appears that Phelps will turn out more or less average, whereas Minky is most certainly below average.

So the choice comes down to Minky (D + bad bat) or Phelps (no D + slightly above average bat). I suspect that in this equation Phelps is still the better of two bad options.

Now, one could consider outside options (S. Duncan, A. Phillips), really outside options (a trade), or a more radical option (Damon or whoever at 1B).

first jeter gets shot down by a potential female companion, now this.

oh, how the mighty have fallen.

(the yankees, not doug, although he did, but that isn't what i was referring to.)

Absolutely disgraceful that they can go three years without a competent 1B on both sides of the ball.

On DeSalvo…I can't blame Torre for the quick hook. He had thrown 50% balls to the point and was looking at Jim Thome with 1st and 2nd. The game hung in the balance there and in my mind Thome was going to walk or hit a HR (which he later did against Villone). This is another discussion we had last night, but I simply don't see DeSalvo as being a major league prospect. He is already 26 and I don't think his limited potential reward warrants the risk of sending him out there again.

I know Phelps really hasn't caught that much since the minors, but could he do that much damage getting a start behind the plate once a week? Even if he is atrocious, his bat would still likely make him more valuable than Nieves.

Chicks dig the longball and lots of offense and lots of runs are very seductive, but I can't stand seeing our defense may us look like clowns.

I wonder if Cashman agrees? and may be looking at more well-rounded players for our future.

If Phelps can't throw to 2nd from 1st, I shudder to think of him behind the plate. Are we allowed to trade Phelps at anytime this year? Get a average BUC for him? This team can not use a full-time DH. I'm ready for Andy or a 'Duncan'.

Jetes was really dragging his leg last night. Torre has to sit him for a day or 2. We can't afford for Jeter to aggrevate or further hurt himself.

I like Damon at first... but after seeing Phelps in action, I can wait until 2008 to, and see in SP if he can hold his own there. If we keep running him out to CF, by 2008, we'll be looking at re-signing GOB.

Ironically, Phelps fills a huge hole on the Yankee team...the lack of a right handed power bat off the bench. If Cashman can fill the 1B void, he'd actually cure two problems with one move.

Damon at 1B only makes sense as an emergency move this year. In no way should he be considered an ption at 1B next year, since his bat will simply not justify using him there. If he can spot start or fill in at 1B in extra innings--great! Roster flexibility is alays good. But if his OF D continues to decline, he should be moved to LF or the bench , not 1B or full-time DH.

7 I don't see DeSalvo as a league average pitcher...ever. I don't even see him as a league average LRP. Even Quest has more upside than DeSalvo.

12, 20 I agree. This wasn't a time to let DeSalvo learn how to pitch out of trouble, because he probably just isn't good enough to do that. He had one good start, but since then he's looked consistently overmatched. He seems like a nice kid, but he's not a major leaguer at this point.

So I guess that's why I am enamored with the notion of Phelps as a BUC (or at least the emergency C). Shelley Duncan played some corner OF; Andy Phillips played (and this year is playing again) 3B and 2B. I probably overvalue hints of flexibility w/o being realistic about such players' weaknesses.

I share your skepticism about the naked eye, but I think there are exceptions...and Phelps is one. I am more inclined to trust some of the more sophisticated defensive measures, but I am not sure anything could erase what I have observed in Phelps 25 games this season.

I think the naked eye is still the best way to judge fielding - with the caveat that you usually have to see someone play a lot in order to be able to judge them. But then you can know far more than any stat provides.

For instance: Derek Jeter has adequate range to his right, awful range to his left; he's got a decent arm, not a great one, but it's made a little better by his jump throw; and he's superb at going back for pop flies.

In the particular case we're talking about, the difference isn't subtle. Phelps is really awful.

That's where your eyes may get a first impression that's hard to erase, especially if you see a particularly bad play.

See, stats help us to get outside of our psychology. For stance, everyone rails about Abreu and Manny being terrible in the field - but they're a little under average.

With Jeter we've seen him for years. With Phelps, twenty scattered games defines him as a player?

Yeesh.

As for Manny, is there really a defensive metric that rates him at average? I remember reading something a few years back suggesting the Sox would be better off with Ortiz at 1B and Manny as the DH.

I'm not saying Phelps isn't bad. Just that you're falling into the small sample size trap if you think it's enough that his bat won't outweigh his defense.

that said, i have no numbers to back this up. defensive stats are a mystery to me.

Fielding stats are particularly difficult because we have nothing to compare them with, no external criterion. A complex hitting statistic is obviously flawed if it ranks Doug Mientkiewicz higher than Albert Pujols; same for a pitching stat that says that Luis Vizcaino is better than Mariano Rivera.

With complex fielding stats, there's no way for us to do that. So at that point, we're just using stats as assertions; there's absolutely no verification of them, no reason to believe that they have any validity. All they have is precision.

I can understand your mistrust of the naked eye. But at least I know what I'm looking at.

As for Phelps, well, his 56 career games at 1b don't give much of a sample size, either.

For Mghjkg we knew the answer even before he signed.

For Phelps, that question has never been answered. And given that the Yanks have no other options (by their own design), it's about time we find out.

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if the Andy Phillips Experiemnt doesn't begins anew tonight.

Seriously though, as we argued last night and my astute fellows point out today, there are lots of factors in making you all panic about Josh Phelps, and many of them come back to:
a) small sample size
b) lack of consistant work at 1B
c)Thinking that Minky was better than he was b/c of flashy plays (I call this the Rey Ordonez symptom)
d) Failing to see how much more important offense is and how truly terrible Minky was, and will always be (as in, even a "hot" minky is still stinky)

In this case, Phelps is not a smooth fielder, has been thrust into a position he hasn't had consistent work in, has some bad fielders around him (or at least, not playing well fielders), and, well, isn't that good to begin with.

However, claiming that Phelps isn't doing the things he IS doing is wrong. He IS scooping the ball and his fielding range isn't as bad as you might think. Sure, he aint so good at making that throw to second based on the one time we have seen him do it, but he'll get better if he does it more.

Phelps ain't a good fielder. BUT short of trading the farm for Texiera, which probably isn't worth it, hes the best option. If we are losing games because of Phelps' poor defense at first place, well, we stink anyways (as we know!)...

Also, let's keep in mind that Phelps career offense is an OPS+ of 108 (90 and 100 his previous two seasons). He also has a relatively low OBP and high strikeout rate. In all honesty, offense at the level might not even make DM a valuable player.

But that also means he has to start producing at the plate. If the Yankees are going to carry his glove to get his offense, he should provide a little offense.

Sure, there's no perfect defensive metric, but the same is true of the hitting and pitching metrics. Just as we can argue about who's the best hitter or the Cy Young, we can also argue about who's the best 1B.

As far as I'm conncerned, RATE does a fine enough job to sort out above average, average, and below average. And based on that, Mfhgjg was below average for the last few years, even as Phelps is probably a bit worse. The difference of course is Phelps is more likely to contribute one or two hits a night.

I am not suggesting DM or Andy Phillips would be more useful than Phelps, but I do think Cashman needs to bring in another player. We've tossed around a few names, but regardless of who it is, I simply can't see Phelps hitting anywhere near enough to justify his defense. I also think it would be a big mistake to hope that he improves his defense, especially when you consider the position is still so new to him.

However, I disagree with (c), and with a nod towards the excellent points in 34 we're going to have to trust the experts- and Don Mattingly says that Minky is among the best fielding first baseman he's ever seen. There's got to be some merit in that.

So, you could carry five OF (Abreu, Matsui, Damon, Melky, KT), five IF (Phelps, Cano, Jeter, ARod, Andy Ph.), two catchers (Posada and unfortunately Nieves), and still have room for the unnecessary 13 pitchers. Maybe Cairo stays and keep 12 pitchers, or maybe you call up or trade for a replacement level LH hitter for the bench (if one exists).

Cashman brought in Phelps to presumably give him a chance to win a job. And he hasn't gotten that chance yet.

If they drop Phelps it wouldn't be the first nor last time they jerked around a player. Just ask Andy Phillips.

In fact, I think it's probably impossible to measure individual fielding meaningfully. Team fielding, yes; individual, no.

1) He just had his head slammed in. Of course, you say nice things about him.

2) He has no other value. Of course you say nice things about him - call it the backup catcher phenomenon - so you praise his defense.

Because RATE aggregates every play the player has been in on, I trust that metric much more than my eyes, for the simple reason that my eyes haven't seen every play. Well that, and BP gives it room on their DT cards. If they thik it's good enough, then so shall I.

That's a swing of ten runs, or one win.

The difference between Minky's glove and Phelps's glove this year, so far is either minimal (-1 FRAR, -3 FRAA vs. -1, -2), or small (92 RATE vs 87 RATE, ie 5 runs). At least by BP's numbers.

As long as Phelps can keep hitting at his current level (.265/.316/.466), which he can (career .269/.337/.470), he'll be quite able to make up for his crappy defense.

The Yanks will also benefit from getting a slightly over replacement level bat at 1B, instead of the under replacement level bat that is Minky.

In other words, Damon brings so much more to the table than Phelps. I could see cutting Phelps some slack if his record showed high offensive potential, but after 1,400 PAs, that really isn't the case.

Also, VORP doesn't consider defense, so naturally Phelps will compare favorably to Minky.

Heck, many last year thought that Shef could play 1B because he had 3B experience. And he threw up (literally) a 84 RATE in his 9 games.

Unfortunately, there are no other options, unless the Yanks were willing to grossly overpay for a dumb answer (Teixeira) right now.

To me, this is the result of mistakes made before the season started. I'll stop before I put a fork in my groin.

You are right, though, that the debate is not Minky v. Phelps (especially now that the former is out). The debate is: A] is Phelps and adequate or replacement level 1B, considering his bat and glove? Has he been given enough time to prove himself? or B] Is it worth it for the yankees to look at another solution, either within the system (Phillips, eg) or outside it (trade)? All of this depends, of course, on whether one believes the season is truly worth saving at this point, because now the team will surely have to overpay to fill holes.

The point is: Phelps was a better option a month ago.

That means there's no way at all for me to know how meaningful it is. To the extent that it matches my judgment, then my judgment is just as good. Where it doesn't match, I don't see that it gives me anything to think about, because it doesn't provide any information other than the one number; and without knowing how that number's arrived at, I don't know what it means.

I think the following are general conclusions. Does anyone disagree?

(1) DM is an awful hitter and his solid glove doesn't even come close to justifying a starting job.
(2) Josh Phelps is a very bad defensive player. Although he can hit some and would probably be a better option than DM, his total contribution as an everyday 1B doesn't merit the Yankees giving him the starting job.
(3) The Yankees probably do not have a better option in the minors, and converting Damon/Matsui mid season likely wouldn't result in a better defender than Phelps.
(4) If the Yankees could get a Dmitri Young/Scott Hatteberg for cheap, they'd be wise to do it.
(5) If the Yankees have to overpay for a stop gap, or even a long-term first base option, they'd be better off standing pat.

Playing hooky from work today--this is the most fun "talking" baseball that I had in weeks.

I agree that #4 has the best chances of optimizing 2007 performance and future performance, by not depleting the recovering farm system for a quick fix.

1 - Agreed and have since December.
2 - Disagree on not enough evidence
3 - Agreed.
4 - Young = 90 RATE; Hatteberg = 88 RATE; no guarantee they're any better at 1B. Young's bat may make him worth it - depends on price.
5 - Until they show they're in a race.

Why?

The difference between Phelps and Young so far is one win.

Agree with both 5s. I'm hoping they do nothing until/unless they prove they're in the WC race.