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Shhhhh, the Baby is Sleeping
2007-06-05 05:07
by Alex Belth

"We can't make it a habit of falling behind and trying to score four or five runs off other team's closers," Jeter said. "But just because we lost doesn't mean there was a letdown."

..."This is the time we're going to need to make a charge," said Johnny Damon, who snapped an 0-for-15 slump with an infield single in the ninth. "Last night was huge for us. It just stinks right now. We know we're going to play better in June."
(Kepner, N.Y. Times)

So much for momentum. The Yankees were listless on Monday night in Chicago. Matt DeSalvo, who is not ready for prime time, didn't make it out of the second inning--fielding mistakes by Alex Rodriguez, and especially, Josh Phelps--helped his early exist. Chicago's Jon Garland was not sharp in the early innings but the Yankees didn't do much about it. Garland settled down and his pitches got tougher as the game went on. Ron Villone gave up a two-run dinger to Jim Thome, and Chris Britton--who pitched well--served up a solo shot to Paul Konerko. By the time the Yankees staged a rally in the ninth inning, it was too late, and they lost, 6-4.

It was a game that had me grumbling to myself all evening. One step forward, one step back, that's the way the Yankees roll this year. About the only good news came late, as the A's beat the Red Sox in extra innings.

Hey, at least Tyler Clippard is on the hill tonight...more grumbling. Derek Jeter is banged-up and slumping a bit, Johnny Damon is 4-for-his-last-29, and Joe Torre would like to give Rodriguez a breather. Bobby Abreu, however, is starting to improve offensively and Robinson Cano is stinging the ball again.

Finally, on a sad note, ex-Yankee Clete Boyer died yesterday. Boyer was one of the great defensive third basemen of them all. He was overshadowed by Brooks Robinson, but for those who played with him, he was nothing short of great.

Comments (83)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-06-05 05:45:42
1.   AbbyNormal821
The game had me grumbling too, Alex...and one step forward/one step back is a perfect way to describe their season.
I'd say the late attempt at a rally was slightly inspiring, somewaht optimistic, but I turned the TV off after the game with a 'too little/too late' feeling.

Small consolation...thank you Oakland!!!

2007-06-05 05:48:31
2.   rbj
RIP, Clete.

I went to bed at 9:30 last night -- tired & I didn't feel like watching yet another zombie game by the Yankees.

2007-06-05 06:25:40
3.   chrismarz
DeSalvo really looks overmatched, a deer in the headlights look about him.

I'll feel slightly better with Clippard, who seems to at least have some guile and fight in him.

I never thought I'd see the yanks throwing two goofy looking rookie righthanders out there two nights in a row, that's for sure.

2007-06-05 06:54:57
4.   rsmith51
I am seeing why Minky was playing every day. Too bad Minky can't be the designated fielder and Phelps hit for him. Hopefully Phelps will hit enough to make up for it, but I have a feeling that he won't get the chance to play every day.
2007-06-05 06:58:16
5.   williamnyy23
This game didn't have me grumbling at all because you can't go into a Garland/DeSalvo match-up expecting to win. Maybe I put too much stock in psychological factors, but I can't help but think knowing a guy like DeSalvo is on the mound puts a damper on the team's subconscious spirits, making hitting all the more difficult. Now, I have much more faith in Clippard than DeSalvo, but I sure hope the team does as well.
2007-06-05 07:02:25
6.   williamnyy23
4 We discussed this last night, but I don't think Phelps career OPS+ of 108 comes close to justifying what is a truly horrendous glove and even worse throwing arm. Somehow, in only 50+ games, Phelps has earned the tag as a 1B when in reality he is really just a DH playing the position. With a pitching staff that walks a lot of men and gets very few strikeouts, the Yankees can not afford to have a 1B like Phelps. The irony of the current situation is that while we were all focused on how badly DM was at the plate, I think we all ignored how poor Phelps was in the field. Neither one was qualified to be a starter.
2007-06-05 07:12:20
7.   Shaun P
I did not see the game. Is Phelps really that much worse than Giambi?

I don't understand why Torre keeps panic managing. "Uh-oh, kid's in trouble already, got to pull him and bring in someone with a belly full of guts. Let's see, how about Villone?" DeSalvo isn't going to be a star, but he could be a league average pitcher, if he's ever given the chance to learn how to work out of trouble in the bigs.

All Torre is doing by continuing to panic manage is to send a message of desperation to the team, and especially to a young pitcher who might be useful. I don't understand why a guy who is such a great communicator doesn't see this.

2007-06-05 07:17:12
8.   Jersey
6 Defense is worth what, something like 20-25% of the typical player's overall value? I think Phelps' bat definitely makes up for his defensive impairments - and it definitely makes him more valuable than Minky. Running the "extremely small sample size alert" up the flagpole, THT has Phelps as a much more valuable contributor so far this year, in about half as many plate appearances as the Mink.

Frankly, it appears that Phelps will turn out more or less average, whereas Minky is most certainly below average.

2007-06-05 07:18:38
9.   monkeypants
6 In the abstract you are correct, but we need to consider the Phelps problem in context. Giambi simply cannot play in the field--not just because his defense is poor, but because he gets hurt. (Of course, now he is out anyay, so the debate is moot.)

So the choice comes down to Minky (D + bad bat) or Phelps (no D + slightly above average bat). I suspect that in this equation Phelps is still the better of two bad options.

Now, one could consider outside options (S. Duncan, A. Phillips), really outside options (a trade), or a more radical option (Damon or whoever at 1B).

2007-06-05 07:20:17
10.   Yankee Fan In Boston
wow. people here miss doug mientkiewicz. i never thought i'd see the day.

first jeter gets shot down by a potential female companion, now this.

oh, how the mighty have fallen.

(the yankees, not doug, although he did, but that isn't what i was referring to.)

2007-06-05 07:29:23
11.   Jim Dean
With the Phelps play last night, I'll be absolutely shocked if Andy Phillips isn't recalled to take the "defense" only 1B role. Sure they might give Phelps a few more AB's, but in Phillips they'll see a steady 1B (even if he carried a 92 RATE in his chances last year).

Absolutely disgraceful that they can go three years without a competent 1B on both sides of the ball.

2007-06-05 07:31:56
12.   williamnyy23
7 I am not basing it off yesterday, but instead his entire body of work this season. Phelps has no range, doesn't handle ground balls well, is awkward around the bag, not very good at scoops and has an awful throwing arm. In other words, he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the bag. I am not sure how many people realize this, but before this season, Phelps had played 30 major league games at 1B (and 20 of those were in one season). Also, I couldn't confirm it, but I believe he mostly caught and DHed in the minors. In other words, he has slightly more experience playing 1B than...ANYONE.

On DeSalvo…I can't blame Torre for the quick hook. He had thrown 50% balls to the point and was looking at Jim Thome with 1st and 2nd. The game hung in the balance there and in my mind Thome was going to walk or hit a HR (which he later did against Villone). This is another discussion we had last night, but I simply don't see DeSalvo as being a major league prospect. He is already 26 and I don't think his limited potential reward warrants the risk of sending him out there again.

2007-06-05 07:36:48
13.   monkeypants
12 You can see my comments at 9 for my views of Phelps at 1B. But you raise some good points--I wonder if a really radical solution wouldn't be to make Phelps the BUC, drop Nieves, and add Phillips/Duncan/Trade/Whatever, and establish some sort of 1B/DH/C rotation/superplatoon beween Jorge, Phelps, Damon, and Whoever.

I know Phelps really hasn't caught that much since the minors, but could he do that much damage getting a start behind the plate once a week? Even if he is atrocious, his bat would still likely make him more valuable than Nieves.

2007-06-05 07:39:46
14.   williamnyy23
9 I'm not saying Phelps was the worst choice from among DM and Giambi...just that all three are/were awful choices. Everyone correctly criticized the Yanks for settling on DM, and they should do the same if the team now settles on Phelps.
2007-06-05 07:43:28
15.   OldYanksFan
4 Gotta agree with you William. And at least DM could/might/ya-never-know get hot with the bat, but Phelps will always be lousy at fielding.

Chicks dig the longball and lots of offense and lots of runs are very seductive, but I can't stand seeing our defense may us look like clowns.

I wonder if Cashman agrees? and may be looking at more well-rounded players for our future.

If Phelps can't throw to 2nd from 1st, I shudder to think of him behind the plate. Are we allowed to trade Phelps at anytime this year? Get a average BUC for him? This team can not use a full-time DH. I'm ready for Andy or a 'Duncan'.

Jetes was really dragging his leg last night. Torre has to sit him for a day or 2. We can't afford for Jeter to aggrevate or further hurt himself.

I like Damon at first... but after seeing Phelps in action, I can wait until 2008 to, and see in SP if he can hold his own there. If we keep running him out to CF, by 2008, we'll be looking at re-signing GOB.

2007-06-05 07:53:05
16.   RIYank
Hm. Defensive stats are notoriously difficult, but I'm looking at Baseball Reference and the difference between Phelps and Mienky just doesn't look that big. For instance, Dougie's RF9 is 10.00 this year; Josh has 9.67. It's true that Doug's have been consistently in the mid-9's for the past five years and Phelps was all over the place. And RF doesn't track throwing, which must be just awful for Phelps, I assume. Still the difference doesn't seem to be huge.
2007-06-05 07:53:08
17.   williamnyy23
13 I think 14 has it right on the prospect of Phelps as a catcher. Phelps came up as a "no-throw" catcher (thanks in large part to having right elbow surgery) and on the heels of more recent shoulder troubles, would probably resemble a green light for base stealers.

Ironically, Phelps fills a huge hole on the Yankee team...the lack of a right handed power bat off the bench. If Cashman can fill the 1B void, he'd actually cure two problems with one move.

2007-06-05 07:56:56
18.   monkeypants
15 Pretty soon this season the team has to make the call on 2007: to try to compete for a playoff spot (and spend resources to improve the team in the short term) or to play for the future. I am increasingly willing to accept the second goal, which means that this season should be converted to extended spring training and players (Phelps or whoever) should be given extended tryouts to see if they have any future role.

Damon at 1B only makes sense as an emergency move this year. In no way should he be considered an ption at 1B next year, since his bat will simply not justify using him there. If he can spot start or fill in at 1B in extra innings--great! Roster flexibility is alays good. But if his OF D continues to decline, he should be moved to LF or the bench , not 1B or full-time DH.

2007-06-05 07:58:21
19.   williamnyy23
16 Defensive stats also don't track scoops. Also, even by defensive metric standards, Range Factor isn't the best barometer. Sometimes, seeing is really better than stats. In a case like Phelps, I think the naked eye does a very good job exposing his severe deficiencies in the field.
2007-06-05 07:59:46
20.   Count Zero
It is truly hard to believe just how awful Phelps is at 1B. It becomes more clear why Minky got so many starts. Another couple of plays like that and we can expect the Teixeira trade to go through (sigh) if the Yanks have any chance at the WC in July.

7 I don't see DeSalvo as a league average pitcher...ever. I don't even see him as a league average LRP. Even Quest has more upside than DeSalvo.

2007-06-05 08:05:49
21.   RIYank
19 I agree on the faults of the stat, but I'm not comfortable making the 'naked eye' call. It's so liable to be distorted.
RF9 is assists+PO per 9 innings, now that I look, so it will include scoops and throws. Obviously it's going to be heavily affected by (a) pitchers, (b) other infielders, (c) park, and probably lots more things I can't think of off the top of my head. But as a starting point I believe it's better than trusting to memory of games we've watched (and by that standard I certainly rate Phelps very low).
2007-06-05 08:06:18
22.   standuptriple
So does this mean Phillips might get some regular PT now, with Phelps playing the role of AP '06?
On an entirely different note (and certainly more amusing) I caught the Seinfeld ep last night where Frank Costanza chastized Big Stein about the Buhner trade. Classic.
Ken Phelps.
2007-06-05 08:06:24
23.   RIYank
20 Quest has a lot of upside. It's the downside that's so scary.
2007-06-05 08:09:46
24.   JL25and3
16 That's why defensive stats are notoriously difficult. For one thing, they have a tendency not to agree with each other, which makes me distrust them all. And in this case, watching them makes it clear that Mxyzptlk is a good fielder and Phelps is an awful one.

12, 20 I agree. This wasn't a time to let DeSalvo learn how to pitch out of trouble, because he probably just isn't good enough to do that. He had one good start, but since then he's looked consistently overmatched. He seems like a nice kid, but he's not a major leaguer at this point.

2007-06-05 08:10:41
25.   monkeypants
19 He is awful, no doubt about it. From a philosophical perspective, I would tend to sacrifice defense for offense--I probably downplay defense too much. On the other hand, I tend to value roster flexibility--I love having players who can be used (and coaches who will use them) at multiple positions, even if they are 'bad' at multiple positions.

So I guess that's why I am enamored with the notion of Phelps as a BUC (or at least the emergency C). Shelley Duncan played some corner OF; Andy Phillips played (and this year is playing again) 3B and 2B. I probably overvalue hints of flexibility w/o being realistic about such players' weaknesses.

2007-06-05 08:10:43
26.   williamnyy23
21 Right...metrics like RF include those events, but as you pointed out, they are so heavily dependent on external factors that they are rendered almost meaningless. For example, is it really a surprise that DM and Phelps both have very good RFs? Probably not when you consider the Yankee staff doesn't strike people out and gets a good amount of ground balls.

I share your skepticism about the naked eye, but I think there are exceptions...and Phelps is one. I am more inclined to trust some of the more sophisticated defensive measures, but I am not sure anything could erase what I have observed in Phelps 25 games this season.

2007-06-05 08:15:22
27.   JasonO
What it does mean, Jetes, is that you killed the rally w/a ground ball and you need to pick it up from the last 5-6 games.
2007-06-05 08:16:37
28.   JL25and3
21 I disagree. Bad stats don't make for a good starting point.

I think the naked eye is still the best way to judge fielding - with the caveat that you usually have to see someone play a lot in order to be able to judge them. But then you can know far more than any stat provides.

For instance: Derek Jeter has adequate range to his right, awful range to his left; he's got a decent arm, not a great one, but it's made a little better by his jump throw; and he's superb at going back for pop flies.

In the particular case we're talking about, the difference isn't subtle. Phelps is really awful.

2007-06-05 08:26:50
29.   Jim Dean
You all forgot that Phleps has gone from starting one to two games a week to everyday. Who's to say he doesn't get a bit better with consistent playing time?

That's where your eyes may get a first impression that's hard to erase, especially if you see a particularly bad play.

See, stats help us to get outside of our psychology. For stance, everyone rails about Abreu and Manny being terrible in the field - but they're a little under average.

With Jeter we've seen him for years. With Phelps, twenty scattered games defines him as a player?

Yeesh.

2007-06-05 08:32:04
30.   monkeypants
29 Throwing errors and outfield misplays also seem to have a more acute psychological impact than lack of range or other non-plays that don't go down as errors.
2007-06-05 08:34:54
31.   williamnyy23
29 Phelps has never had consistent playing time at 1B in his professional career. It isn't as if he needs time to relearn a position he has forgotten. If you kept a journal, I think you could probably point to 10-15 poor plays that he has made (not to mention many more good plays he hasn't). When you are that bad, yes, 20 games can define you as a player. After all, for a player to be bad in 100 games, he has to be bad in 20...that doesn't mean everyone deserves the right to let it get that far.

As for Manny, is there really a defensive metric that rates him at average? I remember reading something a few years back suggesting the Sox would be better off with Ortiz at 1B and Manny as the DH.

2007-06-05 08:38:10
32.   Jim Dean
30 I agree completely - especially a throwing error where the franchise player for the last ten years almost gets killed.

I'm not saying Phelps isn't bad. Just that you're falling into the small sample size trap if you think it's enough that his bat won't outweigh his defense.

2007-06-05 08:39:34
33.   Yankee Fan In Boston
31 i have to admit that even though i detest manny ramirez, he is a solid defender when he wants to be. he has a good, accurate arm and can get to balls if he feels the urge to do so. i fought this for years, but after watching him for a span of time, i can no longer deny it.

that said, i have no numbers to back this up. defensive stats are a mystery to me.

2007-06-05 08:39:47
34.   JL25and3
This will sound tautological, but stats are only useful if they provide useful information. They may get us out of our psychology, but unless the stats are truly meaningful, there's no benefit to that. If anything, they can be counterproductive - they are precise and authoritative, which can lead us to believe that they are truthful. In fact, tha's not necessarily the case at all.

Fielding stats are particularly difficult because we have nothing to compare them with, no external criterion. A complex hitting statistic is obviously flawed if it ranks Doug Mientkiewicz higher than Albert Pujols; same for a pitching stat that says that Luis Vizcaino is better than Mariano Rivera.

With complex fielding stats, there's no way for us to do that. So at that point, we're just using stats as assertions; there's absolutely no verification of them, no reason to believe that they have any validity. All they have is precision.

I can understand your mistrust of the naked eye. But at least I know what I'm looking at.

As for Phelps, well, his 56 career games at 1b don't give much of a sample size, either.

2007-06-05 08:41:55
35.   Jim Dean
31 The question is: Will Phelps' bat outweight his glove?

For Mghjkg we knew the answer even before he signed.

For Phelps, that question has never been answered. And given that the Yanks have no other options (by their own design), it's about time we find out.

That said, I wouldn't be shocked if the Andy Phillips Experiemnt doesn't begins anew tonight.

2007-06-05 08:43:47
36.   Jim Dean
31 I didn't say Manny is average - I said a little less than average. That said, he sports a 93 RATE as a LF (100 this year).
2007-06-05 08:44:41
37.   Jim Dean
35 And it's about time I learned how to rite properly.
2007-06-05 08:45:16
38.   Zack
Holy crap I am agreeing with Jim Dean! Good Lord, looks like I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning :)

Seriously though, as we argued last night and my astute fellows point out today, there are lots of factors in making you all panic about Josh Phelps, and many of them come back to:
a) small sample size
b) lack of consistant work at 1B
c)Thinking that Minky was better than he was b/c of flashy plays (I call this the Rey Ordonez symptom)
d) Failing to see how much more important offense is and how truly terrible Minky was, and will always be (as in, even a "hot" minky is still stinky)

In this case, Phelps is not a smooth fielder, has been thrust into a position he hasn't had consistent work in, has some bad fielders around him (or at least, not playing well fielders), and, well, isn't that good to begin with.

However, claiming that Phelps isn't doing the things he IS doing is wrong. He IS scooping the ball and his fielding range isn't as bad as you might think. Sure, he aint so good at making that throw to second based on the one time we have seen him do it, but he'll get better if he does it more.

Phelps ain't a good fielder. BUT short of trading the farm for Texiera, which probably isn't worth it, hes the best option. If we are losing games because of Phelps' poor defense at first place, well, we stink anyways (as we know!)...

2007-06-05 08:46:04
39.   williamnyy23
I can see both sides of the argument, but with Phelps, I don't see it as a small sample size issue. It's one thing to have some visible ability, but not have stats bear it out, and another entirely to look as awful as Phelps has on the most fundamental defensive plays.

Also, let's keep in mind that Phelps career offense is an OPS+ of 108 (90 and 100 his previous two seasons). He also has a relatively low OBP and high strikeout rate. In all honesty, offense at the level might not even make DM a valuable player.

2007-06-05 08:48:53
40.   JL25and3
38 I'd agree with most of that. It's not like we have a Keith Hernandez to replace him with. I'm not sure I agree that he makes the scoop well, but a little more experience and a little more coaching from Mattingly has to help.

But that also means he has to start producing at the plate. If the Yankees are going to carry his glove to get his offense, he should provide a little offense.

2007-06-05 08:50:00
41.   Jim Dean
34 But then your eyes have to see everything. Stats bring you closer to that goal than anything else. They're just a summation of many observations.

Sure, there's no perfect defensive metric, but the same is true of the hitting and pitching metrics. Just as we can argue about who's the best hitter or the Cy Young, we can also argue about who's the best 1B.

As far as I'm conncerned, RATE does a fine enough job to sort out above average, average, and below average. And based on that, Mfhgjg was below average for the last few years, even as Phelps is probably a bit worse. The difference of course is Phelps is more likely to contribute one or two hits a night.

2007-06-05 08:54:33
42.   williamnyy23
38 I can't verify it without pouring through game accounts, but off the top of my head, Phelps has made at least four poor throws this year (one on Opening Day stands out). Also, everything about his history as a catcher with multiple arm surgeries suggests that his having a bad arm is not the product of a small sample size.

I am not suggesting DM or Andy Phillips would be more useful than Phelps, but I do think Cashman needs to bring in another player. We've tossed around a few names, but regardless of who it is, I simply can't see Phelps hitting anywhere near enough to justify his defense. I also think it would be a big mistake to hope that he improves his defense, especially when you consider the position is still so new to him.

2007-06-05 08:56:02
43.   mehmattski
38 I actually think that Phelps (.279/.347/.397) can outhit Damon (.250/.353/.349) as the Yankees' first baseman at this point. Since both players have similar (zero) experience at first base, I don't see the point in crucifying Phelps at this point. A-Rod and Jeter have made some truly awful throws the past few games, that any first baseman this side of Mattingly would have had trouble with.

However, I disagree with (c), and with a nod towards the excellent points in 34 we're going to have to trust the experts- and Don Mattingly says that Minky is among the best fielding first baseman he's ever seen. There's got to be some merit in that.

2007-06-05 08:59:30
44.   monkeypants
35 I don't mind more Andy Phillips if it means less Cairo. I mean, Torre no longer makes defensive replacements for Cano, and he will surely not replace A-Rod or Jeter late in the game for D. Cairo is now the BU 1B, which is absurd. So Cairo performs one legit function--PR--which could be eliminated by calling up Kevin Thompson.

So, you could carry five OF (Abreu, Matsui, Damon, Melky, KT), five IF (Phelps, Cano, Jeter, ARod, Andy Ph.), two catchers (Posada and unfortunately Nieves), and still have room for the unnecessary 13 pitchers. Maybe Cairo stays and keep 12 pitchers, or maybe you call up or trade for a replacement level LH hitter for the bench (if one exists).

2007-06-05 09:00:16
45.   Jim Dean
42 I disagree with none of that. But who's to say any one they bring in will be a better option?

Cashman brought in Phelps to presumably give him a chance to win a job. And he hasn't gotten that chance yet.

If they drop Phelps it wouldn't be the first nor last time they jerked around a player. Just ask Andy Phillips.

2007-06-05 09:02:19
46.   JL25and3
41 Again, stats only bring you closer if they're meaningful. I have no idea if RATE is a good stat or a bad one, and there's really no way to tell. I'm not thrilled with the naked-eye approach, but until I have some reason to believe that fielding stats are valid and reliable, I'm not going to put much stock in them.

In fact, I think it's probably impossible to measure individual fielding meaningfully. Team fielding, yes; individual, no.

2007-06-05 09:02:40
47.   Jim Dean
43 The point about Mghjkg and Mattingly I discount for two reasons:

1) He just had his head slammed in. Of course, you say nice things about him.

2) He has no other value. Of course you say nice things about him - call it the backup catcher phenomenon - so you praise his defense.

2007-06-05 09:06:48
48.   Jim Dean
46 All stats are meaningful. The question is how meaningful.

Because RATE aggregates every play the player has been in on, I trust that metric much more than my eyes, for the simple reason that my eyes haven't seen every play. Well that, and BP gives it room on their DT cards. If they thik it's good enough, then so shall I.

2007-06-05 09:07:40
49.   monkeypants
on a side note about Phelps lack of experience at 1B--he was stuck behind Delgado in Toronto and Travis Lee in TB, so lack career games at first may have been more the product of specific personel than perceived ability in the field. Clearly teams tried to get his bat in the line-up, at least in platoon situations.
2007-06-05 09:07:57
50.   Shaun P
The last time Mientkiewicz put up a VORP over 10 was 2003. This year he's at -1.8. Phelps is already at 8.1 VORP, in limited playing time.

That's a swing of ten runs, or one win.

The difference between Minky's glove and Phelps's glove this year, so far is either minimal (-1 FRAR, -3 FRAA vs. -1, -2), or small (92 RATE vs 87 RATE, ie 5 runs). At least by BP's numbers.

As long as Phelps can keep hitting at his current level (.265/.316/.466), which he can (career .269/.337/.470), he'll be quite able to make up for his crappy defense.

The Yanks will also benefit from getting a slightly over replacement level bat at 1B, instead of the under replacement level bat that is Minky.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-06-05 09:12:29
51.   williamnyy23
43 I thinnk you need to give Damon credit for: (1) having many more ABs; (2) being a much better offensive player over the past three seasons; (3) having a higher OBP component; (4) possessing good speed; and (5) striking out less frequently.

In other words, Damon brings so much more to the table than Phelps. I could see cutting Phelps some slack if his record showed high offensive potential, but after 1,400 PAs, that really isn't the case.

2007-06-05 09:14:33
52.   JL25and3
48 As is your right. To me, it's just another "trust me" stat. Ordinarily, I just ignore discussions of fielding stats, so I won't bother you much.
2007-06-05 09:15:32
53.   williamnyy23
49 That's a good point, but he also didn't play 1B in the minors (to the best of my knowledge). It's not like he was a 1B blocked by the names you mentioned. He was a catcher with a bad throwing arm who appeared to have lots of offensive potential. In other words, he was/is an ideal DH (I noticed he was a DH of the Year in one of his minor league seasons, which doesn't speak well to his defensive ability)
2007-06-05 09:18:00
54.   monkeypants
51 I don't know--1400 PAs and a career OPS of 800+ is not that bad (compare to Damon's ~.785). Damon does have an advantage in career OBP, but not that much (.353 v. .337).
2007-06-05 09:19:22
55.   Jim Dean
52 Oh, don't take my word. Just go and look at it yourself. You'll find it generally matches what you feel, and when it doesn't you'll have something to think about.
2007-06-05 09:20:40
56.   williamnyy23
50 Everyone keeps framing the argument as DM versus Phelps, but I don't think that's the question. In my opinion, I don't neither one is worthy to play everyday at 1B.

Also, VORP doesn't consider defense, so naturally Phelps will compare favorably to Minky.

2007-06-05 09:22:51
57.   williamnyy23
54 If you use OPS+, Phelps advantage is 108 to 103. If you recent seasons, however, Damono comes out way ahead. The better OBP might seem small, but I'm pretty sure its enough to vault Damon's adjOPS ahead of Phelps.
2007-06-05 09:24:38
58.   Jim Dean
54 There's that. Now add in the high liklihood that Damon comes in with an adjustment. During that adjustment there's no chance he performas better than Phelps at 1B. And who's to say his bat isn't affected.

Heck, many last year thought that Shef could play 1B because he had 3B experience. And he threw up (literally) a 84 RATE in his 9 games.

Unfortunately, there are no other options, unless the Yanks were willing to grossly overpay for a dumb answer (Teixeira) right now.

To me, this is the result of mistakes made before the season started. I'll stop before I put a fork in my groin.

2007-06-05 09:26:37
59.   monkeypants
56 But Shaun P 50 adjusted VORP with Rate and still found Phelps contributed more to Yankees' wins this year in less playing time than Minky.

You are right, though, that the debate is not Minky v. Phelps (especially now that the former is out). The debate is: A] is Phelps and adequate or replacement level 1B, considering his bat and glove? Has he been given enough time to prove himself? or B] Is it worth it for the yankees to look at another solution, either within the system (Phillips, eg) or outside it (trade)? All of this depends, of course, on whether one believes the season is truly worth saving at this point, because now the team will surely have to overpay to fill holes.

2007-06-05 09:28:15
60.   mehmattski
53 FWIW, Phelps played an entire season at 1B for AAA Toledo last year.
2007-06-05 09:28:16
61.   monkeypants
58 Isn't that why Clemens had to get an MRI?
2007-06-05 09:29:32
62.   Jim Dean
56 Well Phelps is a big .2 WARP while Mhgdsfjk sits at a solid 0 even with twice the playing time.

The point is: Phelps was a better option a month ago.

2007-06-05 09:29:43
63.   JL25and3
55 When I called it a "trust me" stat, I wasn't referring to you, but to the lack of transparency in computing it. They make assumptions, they make (more or less) subjective judgments about batted balls, they weigh various factors differently - or maybe they don't. There's no way to know; all we have is their final number, and they say "trust me."

That means there's no way at all for me to know how meaningful it is. To the extent that it matches my judgment, then my judgment is just as good. Where it doesn't match, I don't see that it gives me anything to think about, because it doesn't provide any information other than the one number; and without knowing how that number's arrived at, I don't know what it means.

2007-06-05 09:30:09
64.   williamnyy23
58 I actually don't see much disagreement here, except maybe the degree to which one trusts defensive stats.

I think the following are general conclusions. Does anyone disagree?

(1) DM is an awful hitter and his solid glove doesn't even come close to justifying a starting job.
(2) Josh Phelps is a very bad defensive player. Although he can hit some and would probably be a better option than DM, his total contribution as an everyday 1B doesn't merit the Yankees giving him the starting job.
(3) The Yankees probably do not have a better option in the minors, and converting Damon/Matsui mid season likely wouldn't result in a better defender than Phelps.
(4) If the Yankees could get a Dmitri Young/Scott Hatteberg for cheap, they'd be wise to do it.
(5) If the Yankees have to overpay for a stop gap, or even a long-term first base option, they'd be better off standing pat.

2007-06-05 09:33:01
65.   williamnyy23
60 Thanks...for some reason, defensive games played in the minors is very hard to find.
2007-06-05 09:35:55
66.   monkeypants
65 The baseball cube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com) has good minor league stats, including games-by-position.

Playing hooky from work today--this is the most fun "talking" baseball that I had in weeks.

2007-06-05 09:37:54
67.   monkeypants
66 Check that--no it doesn't, exactly.
2007-06-05 09:38:58
68.   mehmattski
64 My disagreement is the degree to which Phelps is bad... I don't think a "very" is warranted after a limited sample. At this point the choices are Phelps, Phillips, Damon, and possibly a Duncan. Phelps is, marginally, the best hitter at the moment, while Phillips might marginally be the best defender. A hobbling Damon is not the answer, and if you value his bat (and think it will recover to his career rates), then it's not worth the risk of playing in the field now that Giambi and Minky are hurt.

I agree that #4 has the best chances of optimizing 2007 performance and future performance, by not depleting the recovering farm system for a quick fix.

2007-06-05 09:39:37
69.   Jim Dean
64

1 - Agreed and have since December.
2 - Disagree on not enough evidence
3 - Agreed.
4 - Young = 90 RATE; Hatteberg = 88 RATE; no guarantee they're any better at 1B. Young's bat may make him worth it - depends on price.
5 - Until they show they're in a race.

2007-06-05 09:41:27
70.   monkeypants
68 Can we start a "Free Shelley Duncan" movement? I don't really think he's the answer no matter what the question, but it is fun to throw another variable into the debate.
2007-06-05 09:44:07
71.   Jim Dean
My bet is Cashman contiunues to wait.

Why?

The difference between Phelps and Young so far is one win.

2007-06-05 09:45:14
72.   Jim Dean
70 I agree. Anyone SLGing .600 in AAA deserves a shot if there's playing time available.
2007-06-05 09:46:39
73.   williamnyy23
71 I think he'll scour the trade market because (1) the Yankees could realy use that 1 win; (2) the difference could get larger if Phelps is in deed as bad as he has looked; and (3) regardless, Torre is going to stop playing Phelps anyway, so Cashman might as well get him another option.
2007-06-05 09:48:33
74.   monkeypants
Dmitri Young is intriguing because he can bat L (SH with slightly better splits v. RHP) and he might still be able to "play" in the OF (though he hasn't since 2005 and was pretty brutal when he did). Heck, at 33 adding him would be a veritable youth movement for the Yankees.
2007-06-05 09:50:36
75.   Count Zero
64 69

Agree with both 5s. I'm hoping they do nothing until/unless they prove they're in the WC race.

2007-06-05 09:52:00
76.   Count Zero
73 This is also a good point (3) -- knowing Torre, about one more throw into LF/CF will spell the end of the Phelps experiment.
2007-06-05 09:52:56
77.   monkeypants
76 I'm getting that old Miguel Cairo starting at 1B chill running down my spine...
2007-06-05 09:54:31
78.   Count Zero
77 Please...Say it ain't so...
2007-06-05 09:57:27
79.   williamnyy23
78 They've tried no hit/good glove and no glove/good hit...so why not give no hit/no glove a chance?
2007-06-05 09:59:26
80.   JL25and3
79 No hit, no glove - but ah, that bellyful.
2007-06-05 10:02:46
81.   JL25and3
At this point, there's no real reason not to put Phelps out there every day for a couple of weeks. The difference between him and Hatteberg, or Duncan, isn't going to vault them into the pennant race. Might as well see what you've really got there.
2007-06-05 10:06:04
82.   monkeypants
81 I agree entirely, because I really believe there is no realistic chance at the post season. In fact, I would go even further--call up Phillips and Duncan, and work out a 1B/DH rotation between Phillips, Duncan, and Phelps. If Duncan can stand in RF with a glove tied to his arm, then DL Damon and work Duncan into into a DH/OF rotation with Matsui, Abreu, and Melky. In 100 games, we'll have a good idea if any of these three can stick as a replacement level MLB player for a year or three.
2007-06-05 14:28:59
83.   Schteeve
forgive me if this has already been discussed, but did anyone else think that torre had a ridiculosly quick hook with de salvo last night? His defense could have gotten him out of that second inning and it failed him.

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