Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Red Sox have lost five games in May. Five. That's it. Five games.
On May 1, they turned a 4-2 ninth-inning lead into a 5-4 ten-inning loss when Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of the year against the A's. They lost a 2-1 contest to Johan Santana and the Twins on the fifth (a game started by Julian Tavarez, incidentally). Tavarez lost again to the Orioles in his next start by a 6-3 final. Justin Verlander and the Tigers beat Tim Wakefield 7-2 on the fifteenth. Most recently, the Braves and John Smoltz took advantage of a spot start by rookie Devern Hansack to dropped a 14-0 beating on Boston.
That 2-1 loss to Santana and the Twins remains Boston's only road loss of the month.
The Red Sox have won 14 games in May. They have the best record in baseball, the biggest division lead in baseball (10.5 games over the O's and Yankees), their Pythagorean record matches their overall record, they're winning at home, on the road, against lefties, righties, against the AL, against the NL, against the East, Central, and West, in one-run games, and in blowouts. They have the third-best pitching staff in baseball (behind the pitchers park-assisted Padres and A's) and the third best offense in baseball (now tied with the Yankees behind the Indians and surging Tigers). Quite simply, they are the best team in baseball, and they're for real.
Thus far the Red Sox's only significant injury concern has been a reoccurrence of Josh Beckett's blister problems that has landed him on the 15-day DL. That might slow the Sox down in the near future (Hansack's loss on Saturday came in place of Beckett), but it won't stop them. Lefty Kason Gabbard, who posted a 3.51 ERA in 25 2/3 innings for the Sox last year, started yesterday and handed Tim Hudson just his second loss of the year. He could return to the roster when Beckett's spot comes due again. Then again, thanks to a scheduled off-day, Beckett will be eligible to return himself when the Red Sox next need a fifth starter, which means the primary impact of his injury could be simply Hansack's one loss and a couple of extra starts by Julian Tavarez, who otherwise would have been the starter getting skipped.
Incidentally, Gabbard started yesterday because the Sox are going for the jugular in the Bronx. Gabbard's spot start (he's already back in triple-A) allowed the Sox to start Tim Wakefield tonight against Chien-Ming Wang in a fantastic matchup of specialty pitchers, each of whom lost their previous outing against tonight's opponent in April.
The good news for the Yankees is that they have their Big Three starters going in this series (Wang, Mussina, Pettitte), and that Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez showed some signs of life in the final two games at Shea. Abreu collected three hits, including a double, and three walks in those two games and made some hard outs in last night's contest, while Rodriguez picked up three hits and a walk of his own, two of those hits being home runs.
Oh, and Robinson Cano takes a five-game hitting streak into tonight's game. This is only Cano's second full season, but his trend thus far seems to be slow starts. He's a .249/.272/.360 hitter in May in his young career (he's hitting a very similar .241/.278/.342 overall this year), but those numbers jump to .350/.383/.541 in June (which is just ten days away). Here's hoping the trend holds.
The bad news is Mariano Rivera's continued struggles. Mo worked the ninth last night and gave up a home run to Damian Easley, the third home run he's allowed this year, two of them coming off the bats of Easley and Marco Scutaro. Mo hasn't allowed more than three home runs in a season since 2001 and hasn't allowed more than five in a season since he was a 25-year-old starting pitcher in 1995. Mo has allowed 11 earned runs this year. He hasn't allowed 20 since 2001 and hasn't allowed more than 25 since 1995. I'll be honest. For the first time in a decade, I can't say I'm comfortable with the idea of handing Mo a one-run lead in the ninth inning, and that's far more disconcerting than the 10.5 game deficit the Yankees take into this series.
Boston Red Sox
2007 Record: 30-13 (.698)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 30-13 (.689)
Manager: Terry Francona
General Manager: Theo Epstein
Home Ballpark (2007 Park Factors): Fenway Park (102/101)
Who's Replaced Whom?
Manny Delcarmen replaced Josh Beckett (DL)
Javier Lopez replaced Mike Timlin (DL)
25-man Roster:
1B – Kevin Youkilis (R)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (R)
SS – Julio Lugo (R)
3B – Mike Lowell (R)
C – Jason Varitek (S)
RF – J. D. Drew (L)
CF – Coco Crisp (S)
LF – Manny Ramirez (R)
DH – David Ortiz (L)
Bench:
L – Eric Hinske (UT)
L – Alex Cora (IF)
R – Wily Mo Peña (OF)
R – Doug Mirabelli (C)
Rotation:
R – Daisuke Matsuzaka
R – Tim Wakefield
R – Curt Schilling
R – Julian Tavarez
Bullpen:
R – Jonathan Papelbon
R – Brendan Donnelly
L – J. C. Romero
L – Hideki Okajima
R – Joel Pineiro
R – Kyle Snyder
L - Javier Lopez
R - Manny Delcarmen
15-day DL: R – Josh Beckett, R – Mike Timlin, R – Jon Lester, R – Matt Clement
Lineup:
R – Julio Lugo (SS)
R – Kevin Youkilis (1B)
L – David Ortiz (DH)
R – Manny Ramirez (RF)
L – J. D. Drew (RF)
R – Mike Lowell (3B)
S – Jason Varitek (C)
S – Coco Crisp (CF)
R – Dustin Pedroia (2B)
In other words, about 19 runs should do, offense.
I ask, because I've seen (and read) a few articles about how the Yanks are going to have a tough time making the playoffs, or winning the division, or whatever, because of their poor start.
I've seen (and read) no articles asking the historical question from the Red Sox's purview.
So, here's my own contribution.
From a historical perspective, the number of teams that played .698 ball (113-49) or better for an entire season is pretty low.
In fact, my count is 11 teams who played .698 ball or better (since Serious play began in 1903*): the 1906 Cubs, the 1907 Cubs, the '09 Pirates, the '27 Yanks, the '31 A's, the '32 Yanks, the '39 Yanks, the '54 Indians, the '95 Indians, the '98 Yanks, and the 2001 Mariners.
*The 1902 Pirates and a bunch of teams from the 1800s would otherwise be on the list as well.
FWIW, six of those 11 teams won the Serious: the 1907 Cubbies, the '09 Pirates, the '27 Yanks, the '32 Yanks, the '39 Yanks, and our beloved '98 Yanks.
So, to answer my question, it seems not very likely that the Sox will keep it up - but it is possible.
Yankee stadium station gets Metro-North nod
By: Catherine Tymkiw
Published: May 21, 2007 - 11:40 am
Plans to build a new Metro-North station at the new Yankee stadium crossed the final hurdle after the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's Metro-North Railroad committee inked a definitive deal with the city.
Under the agreement, the MTA will foot $52 million of the $91 million project. The city will contribute the remaining $39 million for the new station, which is expected to handle up to 10,000 people during Yankee home games.
2007 Record: 30-13 (.698)
2007 Pythagorean Record: 30-13 (.689)
Just making sure it was a typo and not something I'm missing.
Keep the faith!
It's all a hard pill to swallow, but you do speak the truth. A truth that the Yankee fans have to start accepting. It was a great run! 12 years (and that's the last 7 without even winning anything), but unfortunately the Sox are not only playing good, no, sorry GREAT baseball, but they have torn a page from the Yankees way of playing ball: Going out at any expense and building a superstar team. Unfortunately, not only did they tear that page, but they're actually doing it better than than their rivals. It looks like Boston's not going to take it anymore, finishing second every year! Yankee Fans can kiss away their past (we'll always have great memories) and the last few years of dominance (accept 2004 and THE BIG CHOKE) in the American League, because it's all over for the Yankees. Now their fans will have to start being a little bit more civilized and accept tha fact that there will now be a race every year to win the division and it's just not going to be mailed to them automatically every year! If you have an over-paid bunch of old guys playing for you, you're not automatically going to win the division (or the wildcard for that fact)!!!!!
Basically, I think the Yankees may not be able to win the division even if they start playing up to what we all expected. That's not because I think the Red Sox will maintain their torrid start, but because 10.5 games is a huge hole.
As far as the wild card is concerned, I think the Yankees WILL make the playoffs if they start playing better. I don't think the 8 game hole to Detroit/Cleveland (I dismiss all other contenders) is too great.
One other point, with Clemens, Pettitte, Wang and a rested Hughes, the Yankees could be VERY DANGEROUS if they can make the post season. Over the past few years, the Yanks have been a lock to make it, but suspect once they get there.
Also, along the same lines, I think the Sox are built much more for the regular season than the playoffs. I wouldn't be suprised to see a long season take its toll on Schilling and Dice-K. I also could see Beckett hampered by the effects of the "blister" and Wakefield correcting in a big way. On offense, Drew has upside, but this might be how he'll perform as he adjusts to the AL and Boston. Also, while Manny should do better, he is getting older and has to regress at some point. Coming off a season with nagging injuries, maybe he'll be similarly hampered this year? Also, Lowell has been a HUGE contributor and he should revert to his normal second half tail off. Finally, the Sox bullpen has already started to crack. If Okajima returns to Earth, that could pose a problem as well.
I think you can easily make the argument that the Yankees will be better than the Red Sox from this point forward. What I can't do yet is build an argument for their being 11 games better.
GO YANKS!
9 "What I can't do yet is build an argument for their being 11 games better."
I think you're on to something williamnyy23. If the Sox's pitching suffers any significant injuries, especially if they overlap, that might be the chance the Yanks need.
Admittedly this is a slim piece of rope (thread?) on which to hang the Yanks' chances at winning the division. But I could imagine it.
;-P
good post but i dont understand this part... why would the long season toll hardest on these two opposed to other starters on the sox or the yanks? sure schilling is one year older but he's not known to have extremely crappy second halves and he always throws alot of innings. and daisukes transition from japenese baseball is well chronicled in terms of 6 man rotation etc, but he still through like 180 innings. besides, hes crazy with his throwing and id argue that hes conditioned to go longer than anyone else rather than get tired.
At age 40, any pitcher would be a candidate for a late season decline. Schilling, however, is probably a better candidate because he isn't exactly in the best shape ever. His 2006 second half numbers were significantly worse than his first half, so I see no reason why that wont happen again.
The reason I mentioned those two is because they will be key to the Red Sox in September/October. If Beckett doesn't suffer from a reoccuring blister, he is young and strong and should hold up. Wakefield is, well, Wakefield, while Tavarez/Lester can't really be expected to contribute much late in the year. In other words, the Sox NEED a strong Schilling and Dice-K for the whole year, and I think that is a serious question mark.
Good God.
I think Becks, Schilling and Wake will all miss significant time, and I'm not sold on either Gabs or Lester replacing them well. Sure, Gabs has a low era in the majors, but he like Lester had pretty poor peripherals -- they both put a ton of guys on. That caught up to lester towards the end of his season last year, and it'll catch up to Gabs too.
On this exact date last year (5/21/06), the Minnesota Twins were 19-25 and 10.5 games out of first place in what was arguably the toughest division in MLB (Detroit/Chisox/Cleveland).
SOUND FAMILIAR?!?!
The Twins ended the 2006 season with a 96-66 record and an AL Central Division crown!
If there was ever a collection of talent that could repeat such a magnificent stretch, it's this particle team of Yankees. With a 5-man rotation of Clemens, Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, and Hughes and a healthy lineup, this 2007 Yankee team can do it.
Now, it could all be a moot point if the Sox continue to play this well but I don't think the Wild Card is out of the question.
i'd sure like to see at least 4 wins against my 2 least favorite teams in the AL
She laughed.
But it would be great, right?
A guy can dream...
I wouldn't say a different feeling about the season, since I've not yet given up on the season, but yes, regarding the baseball the boys have played the past two games I'll say this, "I have to admit it's getting better...It can't get no worse."
Robbie needs to focus in the field. He's got that Sori thing going where he makes amazing plays and flubs routine ones.
Unacceptable.
Cano gets very lazy out there.
these next couple of series are all about reversing momentum and stopping the slide away from the teams we're going to have to chase down
Way to wriggle out.
That was actually an okay inning, though I certainly would have preferred fewer pitches. I think this will be one of those games where the sinker improves as Wanger's arm gets just a little bit tired.
I mean, obviously, what makes us all feel not-better is the actual record.
The biggest explanation for the discrepancy of the Pythagorean Record is being 2-8 in one-run games. You can thank Mariano Rivera for that.
YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I remember reading Bill James on this once. He suggested, tentatively, that very regular under-performance or over-performance against Pythagorean record might be attributed to managing. Which would mean (improbably) that Torre gets credit. I think Mehmattski has the better theory, though. Good closer means you win more close games.
2006: +2
2005: +5
2004: +12
2003: +5
2002: +7
I really think the biggest explanation is performance in close games; having the best closer of all time helps with that a little bit. From 2003-2005, the Yankees had a .667 winning percentage in one run games, and it sunk to .510 in 2006. This year they are 2-8.
I'll look forward to seeing a recap of his three-in-three on SportsCenter.
Not.
This is interesting. There must be some good geeky articles about it somewhere.
Wanger looking pretty damn good now.
One of my major gripes about baseball coverage is that they don't fully exploit the full-field views.
Watching on tv you miss a great deal of the game in terms of outfielding.
But that's neither here nor there...
1) Exceptionally poor or exceptionally good hitting with runners on base and in scoring position.
2) Baserunning errors or effective baserunning.
3) Exceptionally poor or exceptionally good lineup design.
4) An unusual number of opponent's errors.
5) Doing a particularly good or a particularly poor job of advancing runners with outs.
6) Luck, which would usually be expressed as unusual performance in one of the previous five areas."
whew
How about that?
We must win this baseball game now.
That was a huge break, getting that 2-2 call.
And then the K.
This is it, things are turning around!
I'm not sure he's locked in.
The thing with him is that his swing is so good he can still hit homeruns if he's not locked in.
Hitting that bomb off of Wakefield's first pitch was great and all, but it doesn't convince me he's locked in.
I'll be convinced when I see him not look foolish like he did a couple times striking out (both looking and swinging) the past couple of days.
But let me ask this again: does anyone know why lefties have so much more trouble with the knuckler?
Yeah, I don't like h&r, but against Wakefield it's gotta be a good play.
With 2 outs/RISP, he's hitting .632/.682/.895
I think what often happens is he shuts us down for 5 or 6 and then we suddenly score in bunches to knock him out of the game.
Small sample. Still, sick.
Uh, four out of his nine outs.
Well, I guess they figured they could run on the Wakefield/Belli combo.
And that would have been a GIDP anyways :)
Those walks aren't helping either.
Yeah, let's go back to that ground ball thing right now. A GIDP would save pitches, too.
Things look pretty good in the bronx.
Wang skating on this ice?
Unless we score two more runs, in which case I go with Villone.
ESL 101: the past tense.
That is one stupid rule.
What's up with so many Sox fans, yet again, at the stadium. I know its easier for them to get tix here than at the Fens, but still
Well, not the worst result, and you HAVE to send Wang back out there for the 6th methinks
Look, we're about to score three runs, and Wang will pitch another goose egg, and we'll cruise home.
Geez, overshift on Posada!
Do you think when Mirabelli calls for a fastball, he puts quotation marks around his finger?
Also, that would have been the time for a steal.
Shoot, I wanted a rally this inning, and I felt it coming, too.
Holy smokes, what an overshift. What gives? Is it impossible to bunt a knuckler??
Has Sutcliffe declared Varitek the AL MVP yet?
God, I love it when Robbie's hitting.
did the sox take sliding into walls training?
So if not for the double-play... But I must not be greedy. The baseball gods don't like greed.
I want someone to name me the team that thrives when they suffer injuries to 3/5 of their starting rotation and 3/5 of the pitchers they call up to replace them.....
And do you really consider the Pettitte injury a huge loss? Did he even miss a start? Maybe he was pushed back a day.
Good, back to worm-killing, just what the doctor ordered!
Hats off to the Wanger.
This could be fun against Romero. Straighten it out, Johnny...
I'm not against it, but I really don't want to take any chance of hurting him.
Oh, Johnny robbed of his third stolen base. Oh well.
matsui needs a hit.
My point is that the commentators make it seem like the team is a bunch of loafers, that they are behind the Red Sox in the standings because they don't care about winning and need someone to light a fire under their collective asses.
Do you think that the Red Sox would be up 10 games if they had to use 11 starters to get through 1/4 of the season? Let's say Schilling, Wake and Beckett were out as long as Moose/Pavano/Wang....are they still ten games up or are they playing catch up like we are now?
Also, I just noticed, could this be the game that Damon breaks out of his slump? 3 for 3 with a walk.
Yeesh. Three walks and no run!
i can't believe wang is still out there!
Well, that was quick. Can he really pitch the whole inning??
Does anyone know how to figure out two split stats? Like Mussina as a Yankee versus Boston. I'm not sure where to find that. Thanks if you can help.
Thank God it's not close enough for Torre's Farnsworth senses to start tingling. Bruney rules.
whoo-ha
So, is this a new regimen? Proctor for two one day, Bruney for two the next? I mean, Bruney for four outs, but whatev. I could get to like that pattern. Then we need a day for both of them to rest, of course!
26 Games
169 2/3
68 ER
3.60 ERA
144 K
45 BB
10W–8L
1.17 WHIP
I was interested as well.
Oh, cripes, what is Joe up to now???
I don't get it. This is like a bad joke.
See the pattern? Why doesn't Joe?
http://tinyurl.com/39blg6
You see?
That's what Cano can do.
That was very clutch.
Anyway, we survived it. And now Papi and Manny can't tie the game.
That's a great nickname for that loudmouth.
Maybe Farnsworth will help him out...
Did you notice how hard he hit that slider?
That's the pitch he swings through when he's in a funk.
So maybe he really is coming out of it.
Farnsworth...
She was a very sincere quality about her, a kind of warmth, innocence, almost.
Sorry.
I swallowed it.
I feel better.
Pfew.
ok, I've figured it out--those glasses are too intellectual-looking--Kyle needs some coke-bottle Ryne Duren numbers....
:)
Give him a big piece of steak or something, I want him to have positive associations.
go yanks, go moose!
Robbie said he was thinking, "If the ball comes near me I have to dive, can't let them score two runs." (In the eighth, of course.)
He was working with Bowa before the game.
At bat he says he now wants to be using the whole field, which is what he did when he was hot last year.
Wow.
He must really be working, kudos to him for that.
Let's hope he turns things around.
He sounded kind of confident, which made me feel more confident.
They do have a lot of talent on that team, we sometimes forget that.
Or at least, I sometimes forget that.
And Kay just reminded me that Damon said his legs were feeling good.
All the difference.
I mean, why does it take so long to recognize your deficiency and adjust?
I suppose with him it's about pitch selection, which means changing your fundamental approach at the plate.
Like when Sori used to flail at all those sliders off the plate for the last year or two he was with us.
Man, major league breaking balls are no joke.
I won't mention any names because I don't want to jinx the guy, but it can really only be one guy I'm talking about.
But as they say, if I knew the answer I'd be a very highly paid consultant!
And it's so apt, both offensively and defensively.
Wandering focus, prodigious talent.
I sure hope that that was the case with Cano, because if so, it means it's easily fixed.
"Doctor, doctor, it hurts when I do this!"
"Then don't do that."
But the real question is, who in the hell would have put that thought in his head?
You see? It's not enough to just spray the ball around? You have to get thoughts in your head about being a slugger?
Hear, hear, Derek.
Intensity is exactly what they need.
Focus.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LrOawFUdFfU&mode=related&search=
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