Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
by Allen Barra
Alex Belth has asked me to fill in again this week with the explanation that he's getting married. He's used this excuse on four previous occasions, so all I can say is that this time I'd better see a ring on his finger when I bump into him.
I warned Alex that I didn't have anything good to say about the 2007 Yankees, and I'm warning you now in case you want to go read something else. My bad feelings about this year's team go beyond the recent rash of injuries, but I may as well deal with those before moving on.
Matsui's hamstring, I think, is a fluke, and he'll be back strong. I'm fed up with Mussina and especially Pavano. Mussina has increasingly become a frequent breakdown pitcher, one whose usefulness to the Yankees is very nearly at an end. Even when he's not hurting, he's wasting so much time trying to make that perfect pitch that he's usually teetering by about the fifth inning and threatening to be a burden on the bullpen. Pavano is simply a disaster, one of the highest priced in Yankee history. I think he's poised, when he comes off the DL, to replace Jaret Wright as the team's number one bullpen drainer. What, oh what, are the Yankees going to do when Andy Pettitte hurts himself? (And he will, you know it, before the season is over, probably before the first half of the season is over.)
Looking around the rest of the lineup, I don't see much to cheer about. Towards the end of last season, Jason Giambi, who really ought to know better, made an ass of himself by contributing all kinds of needless verbiage to articles written about Alex Rodriguez. My favorite comment, and I'm quoting from memory was, We really don't know who A-Rod is. We'll find out in the next couple of weeks. Well, when do we find out who the real Jason Giambi is? Actually, I guess we already have. He is now a practically useless ballplayer. He performs like 42-year-old man. He can no longer field and can't hit to the opposite field, which takes 40 or more points off his batting average. As for his base running ability, any time the Yankees get three hits without scoring a run, Giambi is usually involved.
Giambi is such a bad fielder the Yankees have had to compensate by giving a roster spot to Doug Mientkiewicz. There is no bigger mystery to me than how a team with the biggest payroll in baseball continually gets stuck with players like Mientkiewicz. I don't know that he's all that good a fielder, but even if he was the second coming of Don Mattingly or Keith Hernandez he would still be a huge liability. He is one of the worst hitters I've ever seen, the first man I can honestly say would lose a home run derby to Sal Fasano. How is it that the Yankees cannot find at least a player of average ability to put into the lineup at this key hitting position?
I can't say a great deal that is complimentary about the stars, either. A-Rod's hot start is probably for real, but I'm not yet convinced that his third base woes are over. Jeter's fielding problems are, I fear, for real and may be linked to his rumored back trouble. (Note his relative lack of power so far.) Yankee fans are reduced to saying "Wait till Chien-Ming Wang comes back," but if I was Wang and looking at the prospect of having opposing batters hit ground balls to this infield, I think I'd stay on the DL.
It's possible that if the Yankees go on a tear then the ugly disaster of the last road game in Oakland—the worst pitching I have ever seen from Mariano Rivera—will be erased. But with this rotation—and if you put a gun to my head right now, I couldn't tell you the starters the Yankees plan on using for the next five games—I don't see how any consistency is possible.
I guess this all sounds a bit doomsdayish, but the truth is I can't lose. If I'm right, I'll just remind all of you that you heard it here first. If I'm wrong, I'll be as happy as the rest of you.
Allen Barra is currently writing a biography of Yogi Berra.
Last I looked the Yanks have a very fun lineup top to bottom. Damon is hitting the ball nicely. Jeter will find his stroke. Abreu will get on base more for Arod. Jorge looks like he found the fountain of youth. Cano will find his power stroke again. And Matsui only has to throw up an .800 OPS and that lineup is sick. With only Chase Wright, Rasner, Karstens, and Igawa pitching they'd win 82 games.
Sure, I agree on Giambi but he probably should be playing 1B when Matsui returns. He'd hit better and his defense isn't going to kill anything. Wang won 19 games last year with the same IF - Arod, Jeter, Cano, and Giambi (half-time). That puts Melky playing OF defense.
And you'll love Hughes when he comes up. Plus they've got even more arms in the minors - bullpen and starting pitching. The team is in fine shape and will contend all year long.
Hopefully you don't do anything drastic before then...
While this team does have some very real red flags, I think your criticisms of Mussina and Giambi are unfair. While Moose does seem to have at least one annual trip to the DL, he has been among the Yankees most durable pitchers since joining the team. Also, over the last two seasons, he has still managed to average 6 IP per start. That's not great, but it's hardly a bullpen killer. As for Giambi, he has had an OPS+ of approximately 155 over the last two seasons. As a DH, that kind of production has considerable value, even if he can't run the bases or hit to the opposite field.
If you are looking to make a doomsday argument, I don't think Giambi and Mussina are the best places to start. Defense and starting rotation health are both concerns, but there is also a very strong lineup and bullpen on the positive side.
Finally, the Yankees have been winning for years with Jeter's defense, so no matter what you think of it, it's hard to point to his lack of range as all of sudden becoming a factor (unless you think it has declined significantly more). Also, with Alex's head screwed on right, I think there's every reason to think his defense will more resemble his solid 2005 season than his brutal 2006 campaign.
The end is near, people! You've been forewarned!
But first... I agree Jeter looks weak. Where are the rumors about a bad back. It could be the reason for Jetes lack of power and inability to pull the ball. Where did you hear/read this?
1)"Alex Belth has asked me to fill in again this week with the explanation that he's getting married. He's used this excuse on four previous occasions"
Actually, Alex told us he and his gal were going on a honeymoon, to the BAHAMAS! Get it? (Marriage... must be some kind of sex game?)
2) We're big boys here. If you Do have something negative to say about the Yanks... don't be bashful... just say it.
3) "... who the real Jason Giambi is? Actually, I guess we already have. He is now a practically useless ballplayer."
4) Jason is now our DH. A DH can do many things, but basically we like guys with a high OPS. High RBIs is also helpful. Some other DH's are Big Papi and Travis Hafner. These (AL) guys don't field and hopefully only have to jog, as opposed to run. Please look at Giambi's OPS and OPS+ numbers over his tenure as a Yankee. Then look at other (AL) teams DH's OPS. Then tell me how useless Giambi is compared to this other useless DH's. Take a peak at his RBI's.
5) You may be right about Moose, but he did have a pretty good year last year, in all important categories, Yes? Of course, since the rotation is VERY prone to injury and fatigue, wouldn't it have been nice if we had a bunch of young, power arms in the BP to help out? Oh yeah, that's right. We do. A teams pitching is based on the combined performance of the Starters and the BP. You are correct that our pitching is a potential disaster. However, so far, we have lost FOUR of our starting six. 4 out of 6. 4 out of 6. That is pretty devastating. How are we doing so far? We are 3rd of 14 in both ERA and BAA, with a BAA of .227. With FOUR of our starting 6 OUT.
6) Mo made a BIG mistake. Sometimes even he forgets he's human. He missed with ONE pitch, which should have been a WASTE pitch anyway. It's not the miss, and much as being ahead 0-2 and not trying to get a weak hitter to chase OUTSIDE. I guess that 20 inning scoreless streal has to end sometime. Don't you think Mo is still a DECENT closer to have for the Yankees?
However, I can't argue with your general principals. There are a LOT of places were things can go wrong, and we are already experiencing that with our SP.
But the same could be said of the Sox and most of the other contending teams. Detroit is probably the most solid, but injuries and down years, as opposed to health and above average years, effect every team.
So, I'll ask you one question:
How many WINS do you thing this old, steroid infested, loud mouthed, weak armed, overpaid team is going to post?
(And how many times do you think Alex B. will get 'married' on his vacation?)
http://tinyurl.com/2hy6e4
By my count only five of the balls he's hit in play have gone to the left side, and only two have left the infield.
When I started my rant, there were ZERO comments here. What the Hell! I'm glad I'm not the only guy who can't start the day without a Post from Bronx Banter.
Allen, this is one of those TRICK questions, so read it carefully.
What has more value to a baseball team?
1) a hit or a HR that is pulled
-OR-
2) a hit or a HR hit to the opposite field.
Please choose answer (1) or (2).
Others here can also play.
C) Doug Out
What I read seemed like the worst scenario, anything better than that, one can breathe a little better. I liked reading it since it was a good way to let all the possible anxiety out.
The point is that Giambi has fundamentally changed as a hitter since his Oakland days. It's unlikely that anabolic steroids helped him with the first two numbers of his .342/.477/.660 line with Oakland in 2001. In that season Giambi hit 38 home runs. In 2006, Giambi hit 37 home runs. Yet in 2001, Giambi's RC/27 rating was 11.89 (he created an entire win per game all by himself), while in 2006 he was down to 7.71.
It certainly doesn't make him useless, as Allen asserts. But it does make him less useful as a hitter than when he was hitting balls to all fields as in 2001. Can a player with a .213 batting average be useful? Sure. But a player with a .340 batting average (with the same OBP) would be even more useful.
Can you please explain the back trouble? I haven't heard of any back problems with Jeter, when did it happen? Did he hurt it doing some crazy new move on Scarlett Johansson?
To me, the stingingest truth Allen puts forth concerns Mussina. Moose is not "dead to me" yet, but he's been "on notice" since Game 2 of that Tigers series.
Farnswacker is "on notice" too, but judging from some of the in-game comments around here I suspect he's dead to many of you.
Melky? He'll come around.
Giambi? Cliff wrote it and I have it etched inside my eyelids, and tattooed on my forearm: Giambi's splits can not be ignored.
He'll be re-installed at first before the Yanks step foot on Fenway. Heard it here first you did.
I agree with you on some of items you wrote about, but I find it hard to believe you couldn't find ANYTHING to like about the Yankees. Alex is doing a marvelous job so far as is Jorge. The starting pitching will in disarray has bounced back from the first week and given us solid performances. The bullpen for the most part has been solid. Yeah Mo blew a save, but its bound to happen from time to time as he is human but I will still give him the ball with Yankees up in the ninth inning. The team rebounded nicely from that heart breaking loss.
As for Doug, his hitting leaves a lot to be desired but I like his defense, remember the Yankees are only paying him $1.5 mil for one year to play defense first and hit second. No disappointment there, we are getting what we paid for.
Jeter- is struggling in the field a little but it will get better, I don't see him ending up with 81 errors this season.
Some of the others are struggling right now but baseball is a sport of peaks and valleys so I'm sure they'll break out of it.
The injuries are bad right now but Wright came in and did a decent job as did Rasner in his last start.
Yes the Yankees have some work to do but the sky is not falling.
The remark about three hit scoreless innings is just as difficult to fathom: Giambi scored 92 runs in 446 ABs while Vlad Guerrero (who runs pretty well from what I've heard) scored the same amount in 607 ABs.
Giambi used 161 less ABs (and probably more than 80 fewer outs) to score the same amount of runs as one of the game's best players.
anyway, here's a bit of optimism = for reasons unbenounced, i have a feeling Quest will kick some Tribe ass tonite. even if the bats don't come out and it's a tight game, i think K will notch is 1st MLB victory and drop that ERA a good bit!
speaking of that 4-lettered place, they're airing the game tonite, which is my only way of watching the yanks, but of course, i'll be working and can't see it. : (
http://tinyurl.com/ypxpfa
A very good read, but they were missing 1 or 2 VERY informed opinions.
Question:
If we START Jason at 1st, can we move him to DH later in the game and put Minky at 1st?
Oh, and thanks (to whomever, forgot the name at the moment) for the update re: Giambi's opposite field hitting this year. I would have sworn I had seen more of it this year.
You can substitute for the DH. But you can't move someone from the field into the slot.
6.10
Any League may elect to use the Designated Hitter Rule.
(a) In the event of inter-league competition between clubs of Leagues using the Designated Hitter Rule and clubs of Leagues not using the Designated Hitter Rule, the rule will be used as follows:
1. In World Series or exhibition games, the rule will be used or not used as is the practice of the home team.
2. In All-Star games, the rule will only be used if both teams and both Leagues so agree.
(b) The Rule provides as follows:
A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and allsubsequent pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in the game. A Designated Hitter for the pitcher must be selected prior to the game and must be includedin the lineup cards presented to the Umpire in Chief.
The designated hitter named in the starting lineup must come to bat at least one time, unless the opposing club changes pitchers.
It is not mandatory that a club designate a hitter for the pitcher, but failure to do so prior to the game precludes the use of a Designated Hitter for that game.
Pinch hitters for a Designated Hitter may be use. Any substitute hitter for a Designated Hitter becomes the Designated Hitter. A replaced Designated Hitter shall not re-enter the game in any capacity.
The Designated Hitter may be used defensively, continuing to bat in the same position in the batting order, but the pitcher must then bat in the place of the substituted defensive player, unless more than one substitution is made, and the manager then must designate their spots in the batting order.
A runner may be substituted for the Designated Hitter and the runner assumes the role of Designated Hitter. A Designated Hitter may not pinch run.
A Designated Hitter is "locked" into the batting order. No multiple substitutions may be made that will alter the batting rotation of the Designated Hitter.
Once the game pitcher is switched from the mound to a defensive position this move shall terminate the Designated Hitter role for the remainder of the game.
Once a pinch hitter bats for any player in the batting order and then enters the game to pitch, this move shall terminate the Designated Hitter role for the remainder of the game.
Once the game pitcher bats for the Designated Hitter this move shall terminate the Designated Hitter role for the remainder of the game. (The game pitcher may only pinch-hit for the Designated Hitter.)
Once a Designated Hitter assumes a defensive position this move shall terminate the Designated Hitter role for the remainder of the game. A substitute for the Designated Hitter need not be announced until it is the Designated Hitter's turn to bat.
http://www.nysun.com/article/52717
Pitching Woes in Bronx Are Not What They Seem
By TIM MARCHMAN
Q: What is your personal motto?
Igawa: Quest.
And there you have it.
An at bat (AB) is plate appearance (PA) MINUS:
a base on balls (BB)
hit by a pitch (HBP)
sacrifice fly or a sacrifice hit (also known as sacrifice bunt).
base due to interference or obstruction, usually by the catcher.
So since Giambi walks a whole lot more than Guerrero, his ABs will be less than Guerrero.
For the record, Giambi scored 92 runs in 579 PAs. Guerrero did 92 runs in 665 PAs.
Of course Giambi had the likes of A-rod, Posada and Cano batting behind him. While Guerrero had much less.
Obviously, our Allen Barra is just toying with us with some of the stuff he has said.
38 If I lived in or near the city, and didn't have a wife and kid at home, I'd take up your offer right now. But I can't. =(
He calls Mussina a frequent breakdown pitcher, ignoring that Moose still gave us almost 200 innings last year, averaging over 6 innings a start. Yet his usefulnees is near its end?
Giambi put up a VORP of 47.4 (which includes his crappy defense). His defense will be less of a burden this year. His VORP will go down because the replacement DH is a better hitter than the replacement 1st basemen. But Giambi will still be very productive.
He trashes Minky for not hitting, yet Minky will see less playing time than Womack will after all is said and done. And Minkxdkjd did post 770 OPS last year and knows how to take a walk. Clearly Minky is struggling this year (yesterday's homer notwithstanding), but is he really going to have a 500 OPS? No. Are the Yanks going to keep playing if he does. no.
Then Jeter's fielding problems are now for real. They didn't exist last year (don't bring up the gold glove)? And the Yanks won the division by how many games?
Wang wouldn't want to pitch with this defense behind him? Wang won 19 games with a worse defense behind him. This year, A-rod seems to have gotten better and even if Jeter sucks, not having Giambi at 1st will have improved the infield defense over last year.
There's more wrong with the logic in the article. But I don't want to spend more time on writing this than the author did on his entry.
That said, Pete Abraham probably means what he writes in his blog. I get the feeling from the tone in this article that Allen was probably just trying to tweak us.
See all the goodness you can give to the team when your basement apartment gets flooded by a Nor'easter? Goodbye carpet, hello A-Rod eight HRs. Peace out, RF modulator; whattup Jorge juice! Two days of needed work literally down he drain, SCRABBLE HITS A %$#&IN' HOME RUN!!!
Bizzaro world, eh? What is THAT world coming to? Anyway Allen, take my advice: drink some Nestle Quik with me and chill. It's April, the Craps month of baseball. Mid-to-late May is when you get worried. Besides, it's about time we had the dreaded URP work in our favor for a change. Sssshhh...
Whoa. I was always consistent in saying the Yanks win the division. And I still think that.
I just thought it would be closer than last year (1 to 3 games). For that I fault the GM because the closeness will be determined more by the less visible things (1B, BUC, Cairo) than by the overtly visible ones (starting pitching, offense).
As it is they already lost one game because the bottom three was Minky, Cairo in LF, and Nieves at C. That's still disgusting in my book. And probably another game when Minky left 7 men on base.
All that "extra" pitching we've seen? Well, it was still with the Yankees before the 2007 off-season.
The Unit trade? Even with Vizcaino as the centerpiece, keep in mind they got Bruney (who been the better pitcher thus far) for free. That trade still kills me and it will as they struggle to find a 1B into June. What was that about Phelps getting playing times? Someone should tell him to call Andy Phillips - they have alot to talk about.
Meanwhile, they'll still have at least three decent starting pitchers in the minors and another four or five relievers.
Oh, and Wil Nieves has yet to reach base in the majors. Maybe they'll try something different in July - I'm sure Sal Fasano can be had.
But at least they had Cairo to start in LF. You know "he's done that everywhere he's been".
See, I can be mighty annoyed about these things. But the time passed to do anything about them. Where are all the folks who said in January Cashman wasn't done?
https://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/archives/421158.html
Indeed, the big question for me after the season is: How did trading Shef, Unit, and Wright help the 2007 Yanks?
At the time I really only had a major problem with the Unit trade because it meant Cashman was done dealing and still hadn't addressed the major holes on the team. then he went out and signed Cairo and Minky to solidfy that point.
It's still too early, but so far those trades have meant very little even with all the injuries:
Vizcaino (9 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K)
Britton (1 IP)
Meanwhile:
Minky (11 G, 32 AB, 44 OPS+)
Cairo (5 G, 4 AB, 0's)
Nieves (3 G, 5 AB, 0's)
That was and is disgusting. Just puke worthy across the board. And yet they wait another month to do anything about 1B (if they can). Another two months to do anything about the BUC (if they can). And Cairo will be with the team all season long.
WRETCH!
But in the minors they still have:
Hughes
Clippard
Kennard
Kozlowski
Beam
DeSalvo
Whelan
And signing Clemens will make that depth further redundant.
Otherwise, these days i just sit back and enjoy the games. Sooner or later they'll have to make some moves. But those moves should have been made in December.
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