Now if Andy and Moose can show some signs of life, I might be able to relax. I've never held out much hope for "The Quest". I mean, with a nickname like that you're almost guaranteed to become a long running inside joke.

We especially need to contribute to the early end of the Twinkies. These guys need ot be so far out of contention by late May that spinning off Johan My Johan becomes a given. Then it's Clemens to the Sawks...

Hopefully Cashman gets something good when he trades that big, broken rump.

Alex looks like he's facing A ball pitchers right now. Not to pile on the cliches, but really, "the ball is jumping off his bat." I can't think of any other way to say it.

And Damon looked like he has a slight hitch in his stride. It was a clean single to right, but he did seem slow getting to third when he was thrown out.

All in all, I feel like the season just started yesterday. With Pettitte then Moose, hopefully it's the start of a nice streak.

Tasks
Subject: Trade Pavano!
Due Date: 12 hours after 1st quality start
Reminder: every damn day
Priority: high
Status: borderline hopeless
% Complete: 0%

How the hell people are touchy feely about Pavano after one start is insane to me. Get him the hell out with the quickness.

Clearly, Moose doesn't throw has hard as he used to, but he can still be very effective working a 88+ fastball off of his curve and change (and maybe hitting 90mph when he really needs it). Hopefully, in warmer conditions, he'll have that arsenal to work with.

11 Agreed...I think we still need to be cautious about Pavano. I just hope Cashman is keeping his eye on Scranton because none of the Yankees starters miss bats and I think the rotation would seriously benefit from a guy who can reach back and throw the fastball.

Is Mienkiewicz's middle name RLISP?

I think alot of if's have to happen, before Meat would ever get served.

1) If he continues to pitch well
2) If Igawa ends up a serviceable starter
3) If Hughes is ready to promote
4) If Clemens signs
5) If there are no more injuries.
6) If the return is something they truly need (though Cashman seems blind to that concept)

Maybe if all those if's fall in one direction then Pavano gets traded. But otherwise, IMHO, Cashman is holding on to him.

We need to see more from Igawa before even thinking of trading Pavano. How's this for a second half rotation:
Wang, Moose, Pettitte, Clemens, Pavano. Igawa and Rasner in the pen for long relief/spot starts when injuries happen. (And injuries will happen)

But, I have to say, he did look good last night. The 1 hit 96 a few times and he was pitching low. His attitude was right.

As a #4 or #5 (with Hughes or Clemens aboard and no injuries) he'd be very overpriced but he could end up serviceable.

Nah.

Second to lower back, neck trouble is no fun.

the guy deserves a bit of an "atta boy!", but i just hope he doesn't think he's out of the woods. he's on the right track, though.

repeat after me, carl:
"league average numbers, 30 starts, league average numbers, 30 starts..."

The fact that a swarm of bees interrupted one of his spring starts and he didn't get stung should have been a sign that this year could go well for him...

...also, whoever had Carl Pavano in the First Quality Start of 2007 Pool can pick up their prize anytime.

Right now, he is a Yankee and I'll support him. Actually, I'd really like to see him succeed.

Should we judge Bruney over the last 2 years? In that case, he's worthless. Over his last 2 (really more now) appearances, he's looked pretty useful.

If Pavs can give us 6+ innings a start at a 5.00 ERA or less, he will be VERY useful. RJ won 17 games (meaningless stat, I know) last year doing worse.

And while we certainly need a BUC, a better bench (which we could get from the farm) and could upgrade at 1st... our real issue is pitching. If Pavs is at least solid, I can't see Cashman dumping him.

May IF Clemems, IF Hughes, IF Rasner/Karstens.. Maybe IF all goes better then expected, we can trade him at that point.

Also, while Iggy is no great shakes, we have NOT seen the guy who has pitched many years in Japan. He is, after all, a control pitcher... but we have not seen that yet. Lets give him a little time before we put him on a slow boat.

It was one of those games that once it got up to 5-0, I was only half-watching and taking care of household stuff.

I actually like those half-brainer games a LOT.

Nobody should be judged on just two games worth of performance. No body.

Still small sample, but it's rapidly accumulating (4 out of 6 games). He gives me more confidence than Farns.

And look at that - baseballreference now gives in-season stats!

2) Bruney was dumped because he couldn't find the plate. Great stuff but wild. Maybe a mechanical flaw was found, maybe he's been lucky. He's still a bit wild, but pretty effective. So I say, based on what WE have seen, he looks pretty good.

3) Iggy has what, a 7 year history of good control? K'ed more batters then Dice-K three times? Lead his league in K's?
Bruney, and other reclamation prjects don't usually come from different countries, different cultures and often speak english.

Some Japanese adapt fast, but that's a lot of stress. I don't think Iggy is a great pitcher. I do think he can eat innings and stay around the 5.00 ERA mark. Our #5 pitchers last year had an ERA of about 6.5.
I'm just saying lets give him a little more time before we give up on him. Maybe Arizona should have felt the same way about their guy.

The guy has has 1 start is near blizzard conditions (thus the shades). I'm not high on him, but it's not time yet for hara-kiri.

I don't have the numbers in front of me to support this, but I believe Farns and Bruney are getting more groundball outs as opposed to k's.

Last season Farns and Bruney seemed to get into trouble when they were either getting squeezed by the ump, or falling behind in counts. It seemed like they were trying to paint the corners. This season, they seem to be going after hitters more, making them put the ball in play.

Last night, that's exactly what was required as the Yanks had a lead -- but I'd like to see that strategy executed in close games. The Yanks defense, while not the best in the league, is probably good enough to support pitchers who induce contact.

ERA+

2002: 79
2003: 94
2004: 137
2005: 93
2007: 87

Who's being emotional and just plain silly?

I personally don't like seeing guys give up hits, but walking guys really pisses me off.
Batters only have a 30% of getting a hit... probably less against stuff like Farns/Bruney. Is 'inducing contact' another way of saying DON'T WALK THEM?

I think it also means, don't always try to strike out the batter. Get off the field as quickly as possible (on your terms!).

Those numbers are real, but you can look at them different ways.

In his favor, I could say he's "well rested".
He's pitching on a better team with lower expectations. We could also say we lead MLB in wins last year with a 5.75 ERA between our #4 and #5 slots.

If you look at 02 and 03, what would you have predicted for 04?
If you look at 03 and 04, what would you have predicted for 05?

All I'm saying is lets see how he pitches in his next 5 games. That might help tell us a little about 07.

The real question is really Wang, Moose and Andy. How they do will have a lot more impact on this team then 0.5 on Pavs ERA, one way or the other.

Do you agree or disagree that a 5.00 ERA over 180 innings would be good enough?

a) It is by no means clear that we have 5 viable starters that aren't named Pavano. Yes, I am also hoping that Moose was affected by the cold in his first start -- but aside from that total speculation -- what I know right now is that he was throwing 86mph top end. That's not a major league starter unless he starts throwing a knuckleball. (We won't even discuss Igawa and Rasner.)

b) Starters are in short supply (See Ponson, Sidney in Twins uniform) throughout the majors and the injuries haven't even really started to come in yet. (See Hampton, Mike)

c) Does it really matter to any of us what he's getting paid? Is there a salary cap in MLB now? Did the first two years of his contract take food off your table? Right here, right now, in the current market he is potentially a $12 million/year pitcher. (See Zito, Barry -- 11.0 IP, 13 H, 10 ER, ERA+ 45, WHIP 1.636 in his first 2 starts. Gil Meche, $15 million/year. Etc., etc.)

Anybody who is advocating trading Pavano right now isn't looking at it objectively at all -- you're looking for payback for the last two years. What are you going to trade him for - a BUC? We don't really need anything else other than...ANOTHER STARTER. :-P

The reason that a 5.00 ERA over 180 innings would good enough, despite his contract, is precisely because of his failure to perform over the time frame that you found to be objectionable in your original post, the last two years.

Sidebar story...brings back a funny memory for me. While living in Virginia from 2000-2005 (and missing out on many games except for when they played Baltimore, Atlanta or had a game showing on ESPN) a good Southern friend and former co-worker of mine, who though not a sports person by any means, but thought Andy Pettitte was just about the most adorable thing she'd ever seen came racing into work one day, saying she had NO idea he was a Southern boy after hearing him on some news show (and was VERY happy about it too!!!). Guess judging by his tall, dark & handsome....Italianesque-Brooklynese looks (???) she expected him to come out sayin' "Yo, how youz doin'?" and instead got "How y'all doin?"

I'd certainly rather have Pavano than Zito, at this point, and I don't think we have a terribly hard time moving him, especially in this current environment.

Carrick scores! One-nil ManU! Smith scores! Two-nil ManU!

But, for the sake of argument, let's delude ourselves for the moment and pretend that he'll be healthy for the year. For me, that's like trying to visualize what it's like to be inside the event horizon of a black hole, but I'm willing to give it a shot.

Actually, no, I'm not willing to give it a shot. Trying to separate DL time from an analysis of The Carl Pavano Experience is trying to describe grass without mentioning its color. The dude is literally lame. Historically, monumentally lame.

b) The fact you mention Mike Hampton in a defense of Carl Pavano is really something else. The Yanks should hold on to an incredibly injury prone pitcher because some pitchers are incredibly injury prone and will need to be replaced? What?

c) I care because I pay his salary in more ways than one.

Just because KC and SF signed insane contracts doesn't mean the Yanks are excused from theirs. At least Zito's never missed a start and been better than league average for his entire career.

"The Yanks should hold on to an incredibly injury prone pitcher....?"
Well, if we don't hold on to him, what should we do with him? Trade him for a Nieves bigger brother? Then we will have slightly better crappy BUC, of whom "you will pay his salary in more ways than one". Considering his contract is $20/2, who do you think we will get for him, who might have a real impact on our team?

"...doesn't mean the Yanks are excused from theirs."
No one's trying to excuse the deal. The deal was done 2 years ago. We're just trying to figure out who to put on the hill.

Not to be rude, but I think your statement personifies "Anybody who is advocating trading Pavano right now isn't looking at it objectively"

38 "The reason that a 5.00 ERA over 180 innings would good enough, despite his contract, is precisely because of his failure to perform over the time frame that you found to be objectionable in your original post, the last two years."

No.... I think the reason it's good enough is because last year, our #4 guy didn't come close to 180 innings ot 5 ERA ball, and we still won. With our offense, we NEED numbers like above. Anything better would be a blessing.
Maybe I'm missing something. Who would you suggest instead? Just don't be careless with Rich's money.

I think if we all are going to make suggestions for roster changes, we should also offer a gettable, viable alternative. That way we're managing, as opposed to complaining.

Beckett pitches a gem and the Sox slaughter Seattle.

http://www.whatarackbbq.com/buytshirts.html

I think I'm being pretty objective about him. I'm not pulling his extensive injury history out of thin air.

OldYanksFan or Count Zero: I'll bet a pair of Yanks tier seats in August (versus anybody that's not the Red Sox or the Mets) that Pavano misses a start before the ASB. vockins at yahoo First response gets the bet.

For the bet, it should be something like a month missed for some non-arm related injury. That's would continue the man, the myth, the legend template that is the Rajah of Rehab.

And the trade analysis is even further afield. Cashman ain't trading him - he's had some chances and he still believes that Meat is what's for dinner. If he pitches well, even less reason for Cashman (in his mind) to move him. If he doesn't then there are no takers.

Taker?

Starters are in short supply (See Ponson, Sidney in Twins uniform) throughout the majors and the injuries haven't even really started to come in yet. (See Hampton, Mike)

That isn't comparing Hampton to Pavano -- the statement is:

There is a shortage of starting pitchers...
As the season progresses, some starters will get injured, even season-ending injuries (Hampton)...
This will make the shortage of starting pitchers even more acute.

If you read the posts instead of trying to anticipate what they say, you can follow the logic. :-P

Remember last year? We were desperate enough to give Erickson and Ponson both shots because...(wait for it)...there was nothing else available unless we wanted to trade Cano and Melky. Now I don't know about you, but I'll take Pavano over more Erickson or Ponson. Simple as that. Even if he only produces one more quality start all season long, that will be two more quality starts than we got out of Ponson and Erickson last year. So net-net it's a +2.

I know everybody wants to believe that Hughes is going to come up in June and immediately pitch like Santana -- but that's an unlikely scenario. There is a good reason why the Yanks want him in AAA working on his change. They want to bring him up because they can no longer keep him down -- not because they are forced to do so by a lack of viable starters.

If the trading deadline rolls around and we have too many starters, feel free to call for a trade any time. Given the state of starting pitching in MLB for the past several years, even Pavano with a 5.50 ERA will command an A prospect at the trading deadline.

Winner takes a pair of upper tier tix to a non-Red Sox or Mets game?