So he's at:
ip6.2 h2 bb0 r0 er0 hr0 so8

And how about the Mattingly-esque glove work at 1B by Giambi?! If only somebody could teach him how to throw, there wouldn't have to be 5 first basemen on the roster...

Taking up the Posada vs Varitek thing from the last thread: could Varitek be a Hall of Famer? Almost no way, right? I can't think of anyone who's ever argued its possible. I don't see how you could argue its possible, unless Varitek goes Barry Bonds on the league for his age 35-40 seasons. But Posada could be a Hall of Famer without having to do that.

Off topic: Yankee Fan in Boston - sounds like someone is asking for a seat up front on the 'Comeback Carl' bandwagon (I think):

http://tinyurl.com/2bbhsv

http://tinyurl.com/27rkeu

Jorge's true contemporaries are I-Rod and Piazza. And Jorge is a much better hitter than I-Rod and a much better defender than Piazza. Granted, I agree that Jorge is way underrated. But three more years like last year (yup, I know that's asking for a lot) and he gets his ticket punched to the HOF.

Check it-
Career EQA adjusted for all-time):
MikeP: .315
Jorge: .298
I-Rod: .284
Fisk: .283

Career RATE:
I-Rod: 111
Jorge: 103
Fisk: 103
MikeP: 91

My head might explode if I get into Sherman's premise.

6 Hmm, that doesn't look terrible.

Although I think they were showing the same clips of Reggie & Billy throwing things around the clubhouse over & over...

Thought I would post this link. Aaron Gleeman made Phillip Hughes is #2 prospect behind Alex Gordon

An 88 OPS+ is great for a backup catcher. If Nieves, Chavez, or Pratt put up an 88 OPS+ this year, I would be floored. The last Yanks BUC to do that was Flaherty (95 OPS+ in '04, due to his flukey .465 SLG; 97 OPS+ in '03, due to his flukey .457 SLG - he never slugged like that before or since). And in both seasons, Flaherty had very few ABs (105 in '03, 127 in '04 - I'd give you PAs but I can't find them online anywhere, not even b-r.com).

Finally, FWIW, here is Ruiz's 50% PECOTA projection:

.273/.331/.430

The average AL catcher in 2006 hit:

.271/.332/.417

So yeah, I'd be very happy with Ruiz.

I wish we had him ... we need a backup for Jorge.

While I guess you could argue that Ruiz is likely to outperform the dregs that the Yankees have in camp, I don't think his acquisition would present much in the way of a solution. Bean is an intriguing bullpen option and Karstens has way to much value right now. Trading either in a deal that amounts to pure speculation doesn't seem prudent.

As for the PECOTA projection, I would point out the following:

1) I would imagine any projection system would be less accurate for a player like Ruiz who has spent so much time in the minors and so little in the majors (these players are probably relatively rare).
2) I'd also imagine PECOTA takes into account league and park effects. Considering that Ruiz is currently scheduled to play in a very friendly hitter's park, I have a feeling his projection would be lower if it was rerun for Yankee Stadium.

Jorge, on the other hand, is my favorite Yankee so I tend to be very biased in any Posada vs Varitek debate.

On the other hand, I've been saying for a long time that Posada is the Yankee MVP almost every year. It's just as Sherman says - he's not necessarily the best player, but the dropoff from him to any replacement is the biggest.

17 True, Ruiz's production goes down in a move from Citizens to the Stadium. I'd still prefer a 28-year-old who can hit and catch OK to the current crop of potential BUCs.

Studies show what's important for projecting hitters is the last 3 years. AA and AAA stats, where Ruiz has been the last 3 years, translate very nicely to the majors. The last 3 years are a lot more telling than overall mL career OPS.

As for Ruiz vs. Nieves: Nieves has spent more time in the minors than Ruiz. Despite playing over 1000 games in the hitters haven of the PCL, Nieves never slugged over .500 once. The only time he reached double digits in homers (with all of 10), he got the most ABs he ever got in the upper levels, in the second hitter-friendliest park in AAA, Salt Lake. His career high for walks in the upper levels is 25. Ruiz is clearly the better hitter.

Finally, I never said the Yanks should give up Karstens - why would the Phillies want another starter, they are already trying to deal one away (Lieber) - but Bean is completely expendable. The Yanks probably aren't going to give him a chance, and the Phils need bullpen help. A guy like Bean could succeed in the weak hitting NL. A RH-reliever - particularly one who is 29 and doesn't throw 90 MPH - is very much worth a decent BUC. (This is my set up for Jim Dean to chime in. =)

I didn't mean to turn this into a Ruiz versus Nieves debate. I would agree with you that Ruiz should hit much better than Nieves. I do not agree, however, that Ruiz represents a real solution to the Yankees BUC problem. In other words, if the team is going to seek a trade, I would prefer that they aim higher than Ruiz.

If the Phillies wanted Jose Veras, I would make the trade, but I think Bean is intriguing enough (116K in 88ip in 2006 and 11.5Kd9 for his Ml career) that another team might be willing to give the Yankees something of greater value than Ruiz.

So, a chance to considerably improve a weakness at the expense of a surplus- it sounds like a thing that will make too much sense to actually happen.

But what package would make both sides think? Any ideas?

That said, the whole Varitek/Posada debate really only seemed reasonable for a brief shining moment in 2004/2005. In 2004, Varitek came close to matching Posada's offense for the first time, and in 2005 he was (offensively) better. Posada had declined for three straight years, and it looked like maybe Varitek would be better going forward (depending on how you rate each player's defense). Sadly for Sox fans, Posada rebounded offensively last year and Varitek absolutely cratered. So that ends that debate.

Defensively, though, I think there's still room for disagreement. I agree Varitek's pitch-calling is over-rated, but no Sox pitcher has ever resisted having Varitek as his catcher; in addition to Randy Johnson, didn't Clemens have trouble working with Posada early on? Also, Varitek pretty clearly surpasses Posada at blocking the plate, from what I've seen (admittedly, a relatively minor skill).

On another note, per the post on The Griddle, InDemand may be in the process of matching DirecTV and being able to carry the Extra Innings package. This is all getting very annoying. I was coming around to the idea of paying for the premium online package, month by month, since I may be moving back to the Yanks' broadcast region this spring/summer. Now, if I can get it on TV, albeit with a full-season cost, it's a whole new decision, but I may have to stick with the online bit due to the portability of it and ability to cancel whenever I want...

I've said repeatedly that last year Jeter did a great job as the shortstop and a lousy job as the captain.

^I don't see Ruiz as a long term gap between Posada and ? - but a great BUC for at least the next couple of years.

Imagine a lineup with Ruiz spelling Posada at C vs. a lineup with Nieves/Chavez/Pratt spelling Posada at C. I'm salivating, myself.

And . . . (real stretch here) with a BUC who can actually hit, Torre could pinch hit for Mientkiewicz late in a game, then shift Posada to 1B and put Ruiz behind the plate. (Caveat - Posada has played 1 game at 1B since 2001.)

I guess I'm just paraphrasing 34 wsporter.

While PECOTA does project Ruiz at an OPS of 760, I (a) don't know how much trust I would put in any projection for a player like Ruiz and (b) suspect that projection would be much lower if Ruiz were to play half his games at Yankee Stadium.

In other words, I think it is pure speculation to suggest Ruiz will approach an OPS of 750. Having said that, he would be a better option than what the Yankees currently have. For that reason, I would trade a RP such as Veras for Ruiz. I would not, however, trade Bean.

(I'm guessing the last two are pretty nearly 0.)
Then there's an equilibrium you can calculate, where the pitcher has a ratio that he throws and the batter a ratio he expects, and neither side can improve expectations by changing his ratio given that the other doesn't change. It's a sure bet that mixing in some change-ups improves the odds for the pitcher.

I think this is a prisoner's dilemma situation so I'm not sure it can be described as Pareto optimal? Thoughts?

Oh, and good discussion below on Jorge for Hall -- I was off doing other things. Agree that he needs 3-4 more seasons and I think he'll get them. Maybe his last two years will be a 50-50 games played split with his young replacement.

That is, there's been some reason he didn't throw it before - you can't be too effective.

Hm, I guess you'd have to allow that a strategy could be a function of the count, too. That makes it more complicated.

That raises the specter that Mo may be admitting that his cutter/fastball combination may be less effective now than it was previously. Historically it may well have been that the inclusion of a change would have detracted from the repertoire he imposed on the batter. At this point it may well be that he requires the change to remain at the level of effectiveness he has historically known.

45 They don't have to exchange information. The only relevant info is public: the statistics, and the utilities, which I'm thinking of as (expected) total bases, but I suppose it could be Win Expectancy Added or something like that.

44 Yeah, true, in principle. I bet those don't make a big difference in practice.

I don't think Mo would throw his change in the zone. If he throws it in the regular season at all, it'll be once in a while and it'll be like last night - either the batter is fooled and ks, or identifies it and doesn't swing 'cause it's a ball.

48 Well, as I said, if it's two players and zero sum, then there must be a Nash eq.
The method for calculating what pair of strategies is in equilibrium, though, is complicated.
http://tinyurl.com/5c4sc

Here's an example. Suppose we play a game where we each pick either a deuce or an ace and put it face down on the table. Then you win a dollar if we both put down an ace and two dollars if we both put down a deuce. And then we'll play again, with you having to pay me if the two cards are the same. So, the 'defender' is trying to make the cards not match, and the 'attacker' is trying to make them match. What is the best strategy for each?

Plus, I imagine Guidry had a lot of influence here as he added the change up late in his career, about the same age as Mo is now.

I think it's going to be an effective pitch for Mo because his delivery is so smooth and consistent. Seeing it on TV last night, I found it impossible to detect coming out of his hand.

This is how I saw it as Pareto.

I guess you're right though. I'm having a hard time seeing beyond those limiting conditions! But that's not unusual.

Anyway, we'll never know, really, because no Sabermatrician is going to have a way of telling whether the batter was guessing breaking ball or heat!

I was locked into improving the Pareto Optimal outcome not recognizing that it formed the Nash Equilibrium. Oh well. Of course now I'll be thinking about this stuff instead of the Communication Skills class I'll be teaching tonight. Very bad.

The game theory stuff sounds like a fascinating discussion, but I guess the missing data RIYank points on in 58 ends it. Or could you just presume that, if the batter makes contact with the pitch, the batter guessed location and/or pitch type correctly? Would that allow an analysis to be done? The rest of the data (% of pitches thrown, OPS on such pitches, etc) is available.

I am way out of my league here, so please tell me if I'm completely off base in my suggestion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trap_(television_documentary_series)

At one point it was suggested that batters sit on the changeup. But, it seemed that Mo would see what was going on and throw only fast pitches. That strategy wouldn't work.

The alternative assumption seems to be that the batter will sit on the changeup on randomly chosen pitches, with a certain probability. Meanwhile, Mo will throw the changeup on random pitches, some other percentage of the time.

In the real world, I imagine that the pitcher and the batter will both be trying to outguess each other. IMHO Mo will outguess the batter more often than the reverse. If so, the changeup will be more effective than the game theory assumptions would suggest.

And furthermore, I agree with you about how things change when you go from theory to practice. I'd add that anything that produces a situation that is ripe for guesswork is pretty much bound to improve Mo's odds. There's the batter doing his Wally Shawn (= Vizzini) imitation, "... so this time he'll throw the change... but that's what he wants me to think, so... but wait, he knows that I'm smart enough to..." And there's Mo, thinking: "Evil man, you would harm my brothers with your club; now let my cutter smite you!"