Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Spring training has just begun and yet many of us are already saying, "Wake me up on Opening Day." Fair enough. In the meantime, dig these pearls of Grapefruit League wisdom from the one-and-only Earl Weaver (from his wonderful book--co-written by Terry Pluto--Weaver on Strategy, essential reading for any serious baseball fan):
The Cliches of SpringAnother problem in spring camps is all those sportswriters with nothing much to write about. Every year it seemed I got asked the same questions, so I started giving my answers by the numbers. Here are my nine favorite answers.
1. The hitters are ahead of the pitchers. You use this one after your staff gets pounded for fourteen runs early in the spring. After all, maybe the hitters ARE ahead of the pitchers at this point. Who's to say which group develops faster?
2. The pitchers are ahead of the hitters. The opposite of number 1, so it should be used when you get shut out by three rookie pitchers nobody's ever heard of.
3. The Second-Time-Out theory. I'm not sure why it happens, but veteran pitchers often get hit in their second outing of the spring. When reporters asked me why, I had few answers. Instead, I'd just tell them it was just another case for the second-time-out theory.
4. The Loss In Daytona Beach theory. You can substitute any city, but this excuse is to be used when you get bombed on the road in the spring. So you lose to Montreal, 20-3, on March 22 in Daytona Beach. Who cares?
5. That's why they call 'em exhibition games. The Orioles often had records like 12-15 in the spring because I spent my time looking at players rather than worrying about winning. Most managers do the same. They call them "exhibition games" because they don't count.
6. The Lee May syndrome. This can be used for any veteran hitter who's having a lousy spring. Lee May couldn't hit his weight for me in the spring, but the man did the job once the season began. The writers would get nervous about Lee's springs, but I didn't worry. Guys who hit in the past and haven't gotten injured or too old are a great bet to hit again, regardless of their batting averages in Florida.
7. Yes, Palmer will pitch the opener. Every spring it seemed that Jim Palmer had some sort of injury--elbow, back, ulna nerve, etc.--and people would wonder if Jim would be able to pitch the opener. There were millions of stories speculating about Palmer's condition. Usually Jim was ready when the bell ran. I never worried about it unless Jim came up to me right before the opener and said there wa a problem.
8. Can't you see what we're doing out there? A lot of young writers had a million questions about what was happening in the spring. They didn't seem to understand that you had to do certain drills to get ready for the season. Rather than explain it all every day, it often was easier to pose this question. After all, they should have been smart enough to see what we were doing.
9. Phenom? What phenom? Every spring, the writers are looking for a phenom, a young player they can build up and go crazy about in their stories. I understand that they have to write something, but they've gotten carried away sometimes. I remember one rookie baseball writer who had Mark Corey ready for the Hall of Fame just because he hit the ball hard a couple of times in an intersquad game. Patience! It's a long way from the Grapefruit League.
Remember, Weaver's First Law:
No one's going to give a dam in July if you lost a game in March.
I don't think the Boss ever got that memo.
(I won't mention "first!")
In '96, IIRC, the Yanks had a losing record in the spring, and then won it all. That convinced me the team's record in spring training didn't mean a damn thing.
To this day, my mother, who became a Yankees fan during the 70s, follows the Boss's line of thinking. I cannot convince her otherwise, which maybe ties back to Lipsyte's quote in the post before this one.
Regardless - I cannot wait for the first Andy game at home. I just wanna hear the ovation he gets as he walks to the mound. It will be a "chills" moment for sure.
Earl was the number one sabermatician among managers in my era (as was his disciple Dave Johnson.) He had a great eye for what a player could do, and got (by far) the most out of guys like Dwyer, Lowenstein, etc.
I just went to retrosheet to look up who started the opener and the home opener in '97, figuring Pettitte had to have gotten one of those. He didn't; Cone started both.
Random fact - the winning pitcher in the Yanks home opener that year (they lost to Oakland) - Aaron Small in relief.
http://tinyurl.com/2pyysf
alright. as you were.
#7 on Weaver's list reminds me of my annual "aches and pains" warning not to get overexcited about spring training injuries unless someone actually breaks something.
13 14 yesnetwork.com has a counter up on their main page (upper right corner) that is counting down to Opening Day by the second. Staring at that counter does not make the time go by faster. Not that I'm speaking from personal experience, of course.
"Jeter is a Capricious Dick"
and
"A-Rod is a Nancy Boy Head Case" headlines? Sweet.
http://tinyurl.com/yp4txd
I got it, I'm gone...
Isn't there someone in the Hall who's plaque has a blank ballcap? If not, I foresee Sheff as the first.
Okay, outside of the obvious (Gollum) I nominate Bob Raissman as a top-ten offender for his disingenuous slap at Cashman yesterday and his usual holier-than-thou flip-flopping on issues at hand.
Next?
Not that I am one to talk (then again I am not a major league pitcher) but does Schilling look fucking fat or what? And Dice-K looks a bit doughy, too. Also, I wonder if Nancy Drew brought his crystals and oxygen tent to Ft Meyes. Last, where's Manny? I hear he is hiding out at his momma's house.
Oh, man, I can't wait for the season.
Carfish Hunter
http://tinyurl.com/ywjn2r
25 Murray Chass, maybe? Many people here seem to have complaints about him. All I know is that, when it comes to labor and Seligula, I think Chass does some outstanding writing. Other stuff, not so much, as I understand it.
Not to be confused with the Carbecue, normally found in southern parts of Bronx and Brooklyn.
All due respect to Alex, Cliff, and all the rest of you hardworking Yanks bloggers and commenters, but everything else (particularly the soap opera stuff) is just noise to me now.
Not sure if you've been to PhilipHughes.net but Mr. Ace of The Future has a short mix of tunes on his site which is pretty interesting, if you're curious about that sort of thing.
It's mostly Cali punk revival, and rap rock stuff: AFI (A Fire Inside),Rise Against, Thrice. Also of note, the "born-again" headbangers P.O.D.
Hughes seems to like his music loud, fast, and confrontational, which seems to fit his pitching style.
I keep thinking about how he told Kay he'd challenge Vlad inside on a 2-2 count, tie game, runners on etc.
I can't wait for this kid.
We now return to "All My Yankees" already in progress...
Oh, BTW I love the Bronx Comix. Would you be willing to post an email address on your site so people could send you ideas or pictures for future comix?
he then said,"that's my bread and butter."
yeah. i think i'll like rooting for him.
"Nemo .... is that you? Oh my goodness look what they've done to you ...."
http://i13.tinypic.com/4bp48c6.jpg
If some here could take a few minutes to project games, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, strikeouts and hit by pitches for him, I would be very appreciative.
jeteupthemiddle.blogspot.com
A bit of history:
2005: Big Head Bonds and the Monsters (for those of you who don't get the reference .... http://www.bigheadtodd.com/)
2006: Plantar Fascists (a takeoff on the injury of the moment .... Plantar Fasciitis)
2007: ???
I want to do something around my idea of "Pavanomas" (tm) :-)
So .... please vote
1) Carl Pavanomas
2) Pavanomas Pavanomas
3) Pavanomas nomas
4) Other (please specify)
Thanks!
The "Other (please specifies)" has a nice ring to it ;-)
How about the Glass Pavanomasses
or Pavanomas and the Heavy Legs
or Weapons of Pavanomas Destruction
or Pavanomas Confusion
43 I like Bama's suggested "Glass Pavanomasses".
But there are other cases where players did wear insignia but don't show them in the Hall. Here's a list: http://tinyurl.com/yong53
Aside from the Berra technicality, I think Johnny Mize is the last one before Hunter, and none since.
Pavanomas' Dog? Merry Pavanomas (or The War on Pavanomas)? Ivanhoe Pavanomas?
Meanwhile, the Italian Foreign Minister is named Massimo D'Alema, which, if you ask me, is a great name for a number of different things, including a fantasy team, but a terrible one for a Foreign Minister.
That Foreign Minister's fantasy team has got to be the "Weapons of Massimo D'Alema"
Cute ....
but unlike Carl, Nomar seems to want to play ... and he tells his team when he gets hurt
(Yankees rankings)
2. Philip Hughes, RHP, Yankees, 21
22. Jose Tabata, OF, Yankees, 18
56. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Yankees, 21
65. Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Yankees, 24
92. Dellin Betances, RHP, Yankees, 19
OF THOSE WHO JUST BARELY MISSED THE CUT
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Yankees, 22
For the bored out there:
What do Massimo D'Alema, Adolf Hitler, Steve Spurrier, Luther Vandross, Carmen Electra and Don Mattingly all have in common?
I hope its a birthday ....
Yes, they were all born on April 20th.
55 Bama Yankee
"52 Why does the Italian Parliament care about dianagramr's fantasy team Worker's Comp fees?"
Because they want something special to Lira at?
54 And Tyler getting screwed again!
How does Sanchez get rated higher exactly, especially since they consistently pitched in the same leagues? (I'm not going to even touch guys like Tabata, Chamberlain, and Betances who combined have probably one year in professional baseball).
Tyler is 22, Humberto 24.
mL career Comparison:
Humberto: 5 seasons 84 GS 454 IP 8.29 H/9 0.56 HR/9 4.56 BB/9 8.84 K/9
Tyler: 4 seasons 84 GS 513 IP 7.56 H/9 0.74 HR/9 2.21 BB/9 9.77 K/9
So let me get this straight. Tyler is two years younger and has stayed healthier. He gives up few hits, walks fewer guys, and K's more of them. Humberto gives up fewer homers and has started 9 games in AAA.
But Humberto is the significantly better prospect?
I think those guys are smoking too much "potential" and "talent" and "stuff". I'm glad I don't waste my money reading it.
Because of the data, I tend to agree with everything you've been lobbying for with Clippard. My understanding is that scouts are shy about projecting big things for Tyler at the Major League level because he's not a power pitcher, and his style is more location, and changing of speed to keep hitters off balance. Plenty of guys have succeeded with that mix, but the power pitcher always projects to more future success. It's one of Bill James 10 Commandments.
I don't mind that Clippard gets overlooked by media and fans, as long as he gets a fair crack from baseball minds in the organization. The same people that bring you 400 games of AAA Colter Bean had better at least give TC a chance to excel at the Major League level before subscribing to the existing analysis of his "stuff".
I hear you on the power pitchers, but I really think they need to show something first, and not just in Winter ball, before folks start touting them as one of the top 100 prospects in the game.
I'm okay with them neglecting Clippard because he will fly further under the radar. But they compound the mistake by overhyping guys to the nth degree (Tabata, Chamberlain, Betances). Jackson Melian anyone? Todd Van Popel?
You'd think the guys at BP would do better than to trust tools and body types over results. If so, you'd think wrong.
Here is his write-up on Clippard.
7. Tyler Clippard, rhp
DOB: 2/14/85
Height/Weight: 6-4/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 9th round, 2003, Florida HS
What he did in 2006: 3.35 ERA at AA (166.1-118-55-175)
The Good: Tall, finesse righthander continued to prove his doubters wrong by going 9-0, 1.91 in his last 12 starts while allowing 48 hits in 80 innings. He locates his 88-91 mph fastball extremely well, using it to set up his plus curve and solid changeup. He's aggressive and likes to pitch inside.
The Bad: Without a plus fastball, Clippard lacks a lot of projection. With the curve being his only plus offering, there is little margin for error, and he can be prone to surrendering the long ball.
The Irrelevant: Twenty-six high school righties were drafted ahead of Clippard in 2003, but only two--Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers and Adam Miller of the Indians--would be universally taken ahead of him now.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A middle-of-the-rotation workhorse.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – Clippard is a finished product, but he's behind Hughes and Sanchez when it comes to opportunity. That means he'll begin the year in Triple-A and need to prove himself all over again.
4. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
DOB: 5/28/83
Height/Weight: 6-6/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 31st round, 2001, Connors State (Oklahoma) JUCO - DNF
What he did in 2006: 1.76 ERA at AA (71.2-47-27-86), 3.86 ERA at AAA (51.1-50-20-43)
The Good: He's the best prospect the Yankees received in the Gary Sheffield trade. Scouts love Sanchez's arm and arm strength. His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and touches 97-98 when he dials it up, while his slider gives him a second plus pitch. He gets a nice downward plane on his pitches, so that batters find it hard to get any sort of lift on his offerings.
The Bad: Five years into his professional career, Sanchez has never thrown more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues. He's had problems staying in shape, and he loses velocity and break on his pitches as games get into the middle innings, leaving many to project him as a reliever.
The Irrelevant: In the first four innings of games, batters hit .172 off Sanchez, but .301 thereafter.
In A Perfect World, He Becomes: A power pitcher – role to be determined by need.
Gap Between What He Is Now, And What He Can Be: Low – The Yankees insist that Sanchez will remain a starter, which means he's beginning the year at Triple-A Scranton.
Again, I'm with you on the undervaluing of Clippard, but there are at least legitimate reasons that go beyond metrics.
"When Jeter separated his shoulder in a 2003 collision at third base with Ken Huckaby, he bitterly blamed the Blue Jays catcher for what was an innocent, hustling play by the backstop, and refused attempts by Huckaby to call and apologize."
"Jeter knew A-Rod was waiting at his house, but refused to cut short a meal and made Rodriguez squirm for hours. When the two finally met, a teary-eyed Rodriguez asked for forgiveness. But that forgiveness has never really come"
Ouch. Very definite chinks in the Jeter armor.
The Huckaby thing seems cold, even for Jeter, so I'm guessing there's more to it than we know.
I won't get into the A-Rod thing.
Why has this whole thing become "pick at Jeter's apparent character flaws"? Has DJ ever given Yankee fans a reason to complain about him? The answer to this is simply, "The tabloids are driving the story to sell papers." Anything "Jeter", or anything "A-Rod" sells papers. Controversy also sells papers, so whoever digs up the biggest controversy that involves both of them wins. It's sick.
publically
I've been living in Japan too long.
could have been worse ... you could have dropped the first L
I don't blame Jeter for not talking to these cretins. I don't blame A-Rod for getting the shyt off his chest and effect telling the media to go blow themselves. Essentially, they're both saying the same thing. Eff off, let us play baseball, get a real job. If Jeter and A-Rod beat the crap out of each other before the game started, then they both went out and hit a grand slam and set the record for double plays in one game, I want to read about what they did in the game and say, "If beating the crap out of each other makes them co-MVPs, then Vive Le Dynasty!!!"
I want Jeter to beat the nearest batter for the crown by twenty-five points and win the Gold Glove. I want A-Rod to hit sixty-five home runs and drive in 200 runs and win the Gold Glove. I want Pavanomas to become Pavlov (make 'em drool) and win 20 games and pitch 250 innings and kick asinine on the mound and beat Mussina at Scrabble. And I want Scrabble to hit better than .223 while manning a Gold Glove corner. I want Melky to force Matsui to the bench, where he can become the greatest film director of all time.
But most importantly, I want the fishwrap sportswriters to (TinyHyphen) up!! Is that too much to ask??
But I don't leave it just on them either. You can hardly flip the channel without some hollowhead quoting one of those rags or trying to craft a dig of their own. My thing is, when you focus on problems this way, you give power to them. I hate to say it, but Joe might actually be the only thing standing between winning and total meltdown for the whole team. If I were Bernie or Roger, would I seriously come back to this? Ummm...
The only thing that puts Sanchez above Clippard is those radar gun readings and his physical size.
But if you're going to weight those things so heavily, why even bother looking at the mL numbers?
Further that size and pitch speed for Sanchez seems to actually hurt him:
Five years into his professional career, Sanchez has never thrown more than 123 innings in a season due to various injuries and conditioning issues.
By almost every performance based indicator, the BP guys got this one wrong. And based on their history of top 100's it's not the first or even fiftieth time, nor will it be the last. Smart people acting pretty dumb IMHO.
It's not just the undervaluing of Clippard that gets my goat, it's the overvaluing of guys like Sanchez and even at this point, Chamberlain, Betances, and especially Tabata.
Extremely Horrible Pun #2 Warning!
So I checked in Childcraft for the answer to that burning question, "what do Gerber and people with prostate issues have in common?" and it seemed like more than a few people rode around it like a huge pothole on Main St., but if you have a morbid curiosity about the totally G-rated and not-meant-to-offend-anyone answer to that question, send a self-addressed stamped envelope along with a check addressed to CASH (my d.b.a.) to the address below.
Or you can just ask...
"I would say that I kept in better shape because I kept working hard," Cano said. "If I don't play, I'd just sit at home and do something after the season."
So who bats 8th? Guess it would have to be Posada, right?
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