Regarding the FAA, I like in Manhattan and I found it amazing that they would EVER allow pilots to fly below 1,100 feet up the East River, especially after 9/11. I find it amazing that they let commercial jets fly over any part of Manhattan at any altitude. Thanks for keeping your eyes on the stick, guys, my confidence in you grows by the day.

BTW, anyone see the crazy stuff JD Drew does to "stay healthy"? Fuh-reaky. They have a link over at NoMaas.Org

I'm glad I'm not making that decision. Though if I were, there would be a legit catching prospect high in the system :)

"If A-Rod is not the highest paid player, or if his AAV salary is not $1M more than that of the player with the next highest AAV salary, and his salary is not increased so that its $1M higher, or increased to $28M/year for the remaining years, then A-Rod may opt out."

Or something like that. IIRC, Buster Olney's blog wss the first place that mentioned A-Rod being able to opt out, but Buster never talked about conditions on the opt out clause. Were those waived because of the trade?

BTW, I don't think there's any way that A-Rod opts out. Can you imagine the reaction in NY (forget everywhere else)? "Oh, so now $25M/year isn't enough, huh pretty boy?" It would be a PR nightmare, and he's had enough of those to last a couple of lifetimes. I'm thinking he doesn't want any more.

"Rodriguez may void after 2008 or 2009 unless club increases 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than highest-paid MLB position player"

http://tinyurl.com/gnkk2

And if they find a yuthy backup, he can teach him the tools of ignorance.

http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/equip.htm

Even two years with an option seems tough.

A one-year is a no-brainer, but would that be an insult and why would Jorge take it when he could get more elsewhere?

If anything, with no replacement in the system, Jorge can probably get whatever he wants. Not exactly cheaper and wiser on the Yankee front...

I could see Posada taking 2 years with a mutual option for a 3rd. Shoot, if Pettitte would take an option year he 'handshake agreed' not to exercise if he's hurt, I bet Posada would do something similar.

2) What does the free agent class look like come November.

3) Do you want to get raked over the coals in a trade for a Jorge-caliber catcher?

2 years + 3rd option. $12 mil per sounds right. Then Jorge retires as a lifelong Yankee.

I'd give Jorge a two-year deal, but try to avoid an option, or at least make it a club option with a sub-$1 mil buyout.

Jim corrects himself in 8, but just to clarify, the conditions listed in 7 are for after the '08 and '09 seasons, which means he'll have an opportunity to opt out each of the next three winters unless the Yanks boost his total annual salary (combined Rangers and Yankees contributions) to $32 mil (his total annual salary jumps to $27 mil this year) thus eliminating the latter two opportunities. Something tells me they'll take their chances and not increase it.

The interesting thing is that the clause appears to have expected someone else to surpass Rodriguez's salary by then, doesn't appear that's going to happen. Best I can tell, Giambi's $21 mil next year is the closest anyone's going to come (not Soriano, not Zito, not Pujols, not Helton, not Manny).

That Giambi contract has to be one of the worst signings (in terms of length and dollars) in history.

Even if he had stayed 100% healthy, its a huge expense for a limited skill set, defensive liability 1B past the age of 30.

We (the smart fans) knew Giambi was the type of player to age poorly.

I wonder, if Cashman had total control of signings back then, if Giambi would have been offered anywhere near what he got by the Yanks.

Incidentally, I updated the above post to include Mo, my thoughts on the contracts mentioned, and the wisdom of a Jedi master.

REGIS: Here now to tell us about his new children's book, Alex "A-Rod" Rodriguez.

(AUDIENCE BOOS AS A-ROD ENTERS THE STUDIO AND TAKES HIS SEAT NEXT TO THE HOSTS)

A-ROD: What the....?

REGIS: What were you expecting, Alex? You know, after the Tigers series?

KELLY: You gonna bat 8th all season?

REGIS: Maybe 9th?

KELLY: Maybe not at all!

(AUDIENCE LAUGHS AND CHEERS)

A-ROD: Uh...

REGIS: I trust you spent the winter working on your throws to first...

KELLY: Duck! Here comes one now!

(AUDIENCE CHUCKLES)

A-ROD: Yeah, Regis, I've been working hard, trying to win another championship for the great baseball fans of New York.

(AUDIENCE REMAINS SILENT - AFTER AN AWKWARD MOMENT...)

KELLY: Yeah, sure. (puts her hands around her neck making a choking gesture)

(AUDIENCE ERUPTS INTO LAUGHTER AND APPLAUSE)

A-ROD (nervously laughs): Wow. Tough crowd.

REGIS: Get used to it, pal, you've got a few more years left on that fat contract of yours.

(A FEW CHUCKLES FROM THE AUDIENCE)

A-ROD: Uh, can we talk about my children's book?

KELLY: We'll get to it, A-Rod, but everybody wants us to talk about Derek Jeter's love life. Has that been, like, hot OR WHAT?!

(AUDIENCE CHEERS - WHISTLES, HOOTS ETC.)

A-ROD: Derek's a great guy.

REGIS: He doesn't seem to think very much of you.

AUDIENCE: Oooooo!

A-ROD: Aw, we're friends. He's a great teammate.

(AUDIENCE CHEERS)

KELLY: I think he should have won the batting title.

(AUDIENCE CHEERS)

A-ROD: That would have been great. We were all rooting for him. He came really close.

REGIS: You think the judges were a little rough on him?

A-ROD: Judges?

KELLY: Yeah, because he's so handsome and popular.

(AUDIENCE CHEERS)

A-ROD: Um, they don't judge you for the batting title, you earn it.

KELLY: Well, that wasn't necessary, A-Rod.

A-ROD: (confused) What,um, wasn't necessary?

REGIS: Your little "Derek should have earned it" comment there. Not exactly the best way to win over the fans.

(AUDIENCE BOOS LOUDLY)

A-ROD smiles, sheepishly waves to the crowd, and exits hastily.

KELLY: Can't take the heat, A-ROD? Stay out of Martha Stewart's kitchen!

REGIS: Watch out! He's going there next, you know...

(AUDIENCE LAUGHS AND CHEERS)

Just caught him on Martha Stewart. She had the whole audience in Yanks caps, and he took a bunch of questions from kids in the crowd.

Says he wants to finish his career in NY, win a Gold Glove at 3B etc.

No "news" from him whatsoever, but good to see Alex out on the town.

4 Don't feel bad, Nem. I lived in upper Manhattan for a little over six months, but I didn't like it >;)

And if you think I'm overanalyzing here, wait til the NY ragmen get their mitts on him at his booksignings today.

Let the new season of Analyzing Alex begin... NOT.

I fear he's in for a line of questioning similar to the one in 17.

He came across as a genuinely nice and humble guy on the shows today, the kind of athlete you'd want your kids to look up to.

Damn, I hope he's not the story this year, for his sake and ours.

In other funny news,
Apparently, Igawa has left Japan for Tampa already. The Japanese press waited an hour in the airport for a 58 second interview because Igawa overslept. When asked why he was late (who finally turned up appearing relaxed), he said there was no particular reason except he was packing continuously the night before...
He also said he feels the same like always even though he will be working in MLB the next year.
The story next day in one of the National papers in Japan went like this...
" Perhaps the stress of playing in MLB will be irrelavent to someone as "unsensitive" as Igawa."

The press in NYC is going to love him.

Is Alex or Cliff going to declare "motion carried"?

Looking forward to Igawa mania.

He's not as good as Matsuzaka, but seems to be a more colorful character.

As long as Iggy meets the back-of-the-rotation expectations, and doesn't annoy a la Denny Neagle with the train whistle, he should be a regular hoot, as well as a NY media darling.

Somewhat off topic: I keep having this irrational fear that Igawa's going to take Pavano out for sushi, and Carl's going to suffer a season-ending chopsticks splinter in his right index finger. Sure hope I'm wrong.

...poor carl... i'm still holding out hope for a comeback of earth-shatteringly league average proportions.

and yes, dear god... let the quest begin. igawa is already going to tampa? i love this guy.

I realize it's an impossible task to predict. Part of me says we're already ahead of the sawks pitching(how bout those jays, hmmm?) and you only need to be better than the competition. And another part of me thinks Cash is too close to barely to go into the season with this group.

Reading that 1996 Yankees book by Joel Sherman. Wonder how much George has mellowed....

Random off-topic thought.

The Yanks have many young pitching 'prospects'.

The Yanks need a first baseman who can hit.

The Royals have a first baseman who can hit - one Justin Huber. Not only is he blocked at 1B, for this year and many in the future, by Ryan Shealy, (when he's healthy) Mike Sweeney, and perhaps also Ross Gload, but the Royals also seem to be down on him.

DH is not an option, because of Billy Butler's impending arrival.

Meanwhile, the Royals need some decent pitching 'prospects'.

Perhaps Ca$hmoney could turn a couple of surplus starters into Justin Huber? Anyone know what Huber's glove is like?

speaking of which, jeff clement really stunk it up this winter... perhaps that apple could be shaken from the tree a little easier now.

http://tinyurl.com/2u4xgk

If They Don't Post It's a Shame
A Growing Chorus of Bloggers Chronicles the Nats, Who Are Reading

By Barry Svrluga
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 6, 2007; E01

The e-mail popped in, and Chris Needham took a minute to digest it. The sender was easily identifiable: Stan Kasten is the president of the Washington Nationals, the baseball team about which Needham comments almost daily via his blog.

Needham had just published an entry titled "StanSpeak," in which he took the liberty of "translating" Kasten's words for the club's fan base, a smart-alecky but smart look at what the man who runs the club might really be thinking.

Needham opened the e-mail cautiously. He knows about this?

"I had suspicions that they read this stuff," Needham said. "But when a suspicion becomes a reality, it's surreal."

snip

You hear that Brian?

That's hilarious.

I know all the actual payouts for each player, but I have two questions about the AAV used for luxury tax purposes.

1. Posada's option is for $12M. Does that mean his AAV is 12 years, or do I redo the math so that it is a 6 year deal as opposed to the original 5 year deal?

2. Do I use Abreu's entire contract for the AAV or just 2006 and 2007 since that is when he was with the Yankees?

Actually, three questions

3. I believe in a case where two teams are paying the salary (Arod) only the portion paid by each team counts toward the luxury tax...meaning, the Yankees are only charged $16M for both actual salary and for luxury tax purposes. Am I correct in thinking this?

Basically, the question Arod would have to answer is this: could a new long-term deal signed after 2007 outweigh his current deal as well as any subsequent deal he might sign after 2010? Assuming Arod could sign a 7-year/$140mn deal this off season, then he would need to sign a 4-year/$59mn deal in 2010. Quite frankly, I think he should be able to do even better than that, even before factoring in the time value of money, which would favor his current front-loaded deal.

The only way Arod will opt out is if playing for the Yankees becomes so untenable that he has no choice. Hopefully, Yankee fans will smarten up and not allow for that possibility.

As for Arod, only the portion they are paying him applies to the luxury cap. Of course, the cash out to Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, et al. count against the Yankees' ledger.

And yes, baseball does use the AAV to calculate luxury tax...which is what I am trying to calculate now....I just happen to have the actual payout to the players done as well.

I just wasn't sure how to get Posada's option and Abreu's playing time with the Yankees into AAV terms.

Can you imagine the reaction to that?

46 I think so. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the money the Yanks sent to Baltimore with Wright, for example, counts towards the Yanks' payroll. I don't remember where I read it, though.

The other two - good luck finding answers. You might want to try posting in the forums at bizofbaseball.com - that seems like the kind of thing those folks would know.

http://tinyurl.com/26s4wx

49 Which inning was that, the 19th or 23rd? I heard the yelling all the way up here in New York and I was like, "Who is that??"

Right on.
Unfortunately, the "fans" boo-rometor will go up and down with A-Rod's batting average, and perceived performance.

A-Rod's actually become pretty easy to predict.
Here's my Farmer's Almanac type analysis.

In general, A-Rod's best months in recent years, batting avg. wise are May and August. Those were his best months in '04, 05', '06.

His worst months batting-average wise were April, June, Sept in '04, July and Sept. in '05, and April, June, and Sept. of '06. So as a Yankee he's tended to begin and end the season "cold." He's also susceptible to the medical condition commonly referred to as the June Swoon. Same could probably be said of a billion hitters, but unfortunately these are the months when "fans" seem to be paying the closest attention to A-Rod, and boo him they will, while remaining ignorant to his situational accomplishments.

Except as specifically provided in Section B(3) below, a Club with a final Actual Club Payroll that exceeds the Tax Threshold applicable in that Contract Year ("Tax Threshold") shall be assessed a Competitive Balance Tax on the difference between its final Actual Club Payroll and the Tax Threshold. A Club with a final Actual Club Payroll at or below the Tax Threshold shall incur no Competitive Balance Tax for that Contract Year.

AND

C. Determination of Actual Club Payroll
(1) Definition of Actual Club Payroll
"Actual Club Payroll" of a Club in a Contract Year shall be the sum of:

(a) a 1/30th share of Player Benefit Costs (and a similar pro rata share if the number of Major League Clubs changes), as determined in Section D below;

(b) the sum of the yearly Salaries (as determined in accordance with Section E below and as allocated among Clubs in accordance with this Section C) attributable to that Contract Year of all Players under a Uniform Player's Contract with the Club for that Contract Year (including optionally assigned contracts); and

(c) any other amount includible in or deductible from Actual Club Payroll as a result of the operation of Section C(2)(g) below or as a result of any Club, any Player and/or either of the Parties hereto having engaged in a transaction contrary to Section G(1) below or as a result of an award by the Arbitration Panel under Article XI and/or Section F below.

Anyway, he's NOT going to be THE STORY this year, right?! unless it's under the conditions Cliff layed out earlier.

If it wasn't for Torre, I'd say that would work just fine...

I can just see it now...after every game, some intrepid reporter is going to ask, "Hey Alex, are you willing to commit to staying with the Yankees," or something like that. Then, Arod's responses will be interpreted as disingenuous and he will be labeled selfish for being a distraction to the team.

Along those lines: Mike Lupica just emerged from his den, saw his shadow, and predicted 6 more weeks until the perennial A-Rod trade rumors begin. Sounds about right.

"Justin Huber's comparables aren't impressive--it's hard to look at the name David Kelton without retching a bit--but he deserves credit for dealing with a series of position switches and injuries without missing much of a beat with his bat. Still, it appears likely that he'll pass through his age-24 season without having nailed down a major league job, which could make his failure something of a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Shrug

I actually think, while 1b needs to be fixed, it's a low priority, and should be allowed to work itself out. Hell, maybe we could get PatTheBat for cheap from Phili... how many years left for him? ;) If more than 1, fugedaboutit.

Nick Johnson? Maybe we could get him for cheapish and let him rehab that broken leg on our dime/time in return... (I was watching that game, it was an ugly ugly collision...)

The rant has mostly passed - painfully like a kidney stone - but passed nonetheless. Still, it's so damn silly that they go into the season with the craphouse at 1B and BUC and yet those guys above (clear improvements with significant upside) could probably be had very cheaply from the pitching surplus in the system. Wretch...

67 Sorry, but I don't think Salty will be available anytime soon. ATL isn't sure what they have, and so they'll hold.

"There's a class of player that has not been fitted into this new market," Boras said. "Obviously when Alex's contract was done, the revenues of the game were around $3 billion. Now they are around $6 billion. The elite position player has not been really graded in this new revenue stream we've seen."

The last starting pitcher to get 5 hits in a game .... ?

Our own Mel Stottlemyre, 9/26/64

http://tinyurl.com/23a2nx

71 Blowing smoke, doing his job. I can't see many players getting over $22M. Maybe Santana.. possibly Pujols. I can't imagine anyone offering a 32 yr old ARod $27M. Plus isn't ARod due a $5m raise in 2009? I CAN see ARod leaving just to escape NY, but it will cost him money.

If you made any other comments, I have no record of them in the database.

Would the Yankees open up their wallets to sign Pujols to that kind of money? I would say, "No." They would probably give him $20 million over a longer period, and even then I'm not sure they'd dive into that pool.

The Cubs? Red Sox? Dodgers? $20 million probably, but $30?