Excellent Cliff, thanks. It's always a nice treat to get going on the day and find something to read and think about here.

I'd argue (you probably knew I would) that the Yanks managed to survive in the other injury years because the other IF's were relatively still young and nimble - they were less likely to suffer an injury as well and were contributing above average performance for their positions (I'm looking at you, Jorge, Jeter, and Giambi, specifically). The effect was to "balance" out the losses. Now, would it really be a stretch to see their IF have a catastrophe like the OF in 2006?

It feels like they compound the mistake of Cairo with TR Nieves and Phelps/Phillips/MCI (who you could also claim as baselines). Further, I'm surprised you're calling Cairo a baseline - that feels like calling a 63 year old hooker "serviceable".

To the list I'd add Chris Gomez:

2006: 132 AB .341 .387 .439
Car: .260 .326 .360

Of course , those 2006 numbers are a small sample size effect, but maybe he's found something (in the AL East) that we know Cairo hasn't. But maybe his RATE isn't in-line with he others?

I'd also add Damion Easley:
2006: 189 AB .233 .323 .418
Car: .251 .328 .404

There isn't much. But with the Yankee resources, that can, and should have, done better. They bought a cheap insurance policy on a multi-million dollar home. I hope it doesn't come back to bite them.

I thought Chris Woodward would be an OK middle infielder pick up . . . but then I looked at his numbers.

2006: .216/.289/.311
Career: .247/.302/.384

His DT-translated numbers are about the same.

His defensive numbers are quite good, though potential small sample concerns abound:

2B - 2006: 111 (39 games)
2B - Career: 111 (70 games)

SS - 2006: 101 (13 games)
SS - Career: 100 (302 games)

3B - 2006: 117 (10 games)
3B - Career: 116 (39 games)

1 Essentially you're saying the Yanks should have signed either Loretta or Graffanino, right?

Loretta I agree was gettable - unless he was concerned with regular playing time, which not even the Yankee resources (ie money) could have offered.

Graffanino was arbitration-eligible, which the Brewers offered. I just looked this up, and I still can't believe it, but he was listed as a 'Type A' free agent. I'm guessing that's why there weren't any Tony Graffanino to the Yanks rumors.

For my money, although I recognize that utility players are utility because they can't hit a lick, I still think the Yankees should give the job to a 25 year old minor leaguer that can run a little and has SOME upside. Cairo will do the job just fine, but Andy Cannizaro or someone of that nature would be better to me.

On a separate note, check out my post at COH. It seems that Joe Torre and Scott Proctor have stirred up some trouble in Lebanon.

Cliff... Thanks so much for presenting some thorough stats, and in context to the rest of MLB.

And I might ask....
what if Big Papi gets hurt? Should the Sox sign Bonds... just in case?
what if Beltran gets hurt? Should the Mets sign A.Jones... just in case?
what if Mauer gets hurt? Should the Twins try to get Posada... just in case?
What team would not be impacted if both their starting SS and 2nd went down?

We have an All-Star at almost every starting position... and spent a ton of money to both keep OUR homegrown guys (Posada, Jetes, Bernie) and try and get other impact players (Giambi, Matsui, ARod, Contraras, RJ, etc)... and in the last 2 years, have NOT given up any of our good kids.

These statements of 'should have gotten' with absolutely NO idea of availability, NO idea if the want to or can play in NY, NO idea what Cashman is manuvering for in both the immediate and short term future.. is getting nuts.

If I have a spat with the old lady, do I sit and tell myself 'I should have gotten' Pam Anderson?

Yeah, Jeter's only missed significant time because of that freak injury. What suggests he'll all of a sudden collapse?

5 All the sex he's been having in public with ultra-bodacious women.

If anyone recalls, Jeter had a rep as a defensive question-mark when he first came up, but has since performed... admirably? What I mean is, though the stats in the minors are a fair indicator of what to expect from a player in the majors, there's really no telling how that player will be until he actually gets there.

Marcus Thames' potential was scary when he was at Columbus; but didn't do much of anything for years after knocking the snot out of Randy his first at-bat. Did anyone really expect Shane Spencer to be heroic (at least until he started agitating to start) and so forth.

I agree with Cliff that just as there may be a systemic blind spot in terms of building a strong bench (but does that include former starters now reduced to back-up?), there may be no better way to strengthen the bench than to groom your own bench, either as career utility players (which would be an unfortunate prospect) or as eventual replacements (provided that the prospect has the patience to wait that long).

4 I imagine most people do. But if Kid Rock and Tommy Lee can't handle her, those are not strong endorsements in my opinion.

5 Never trust anyone over 30?

6 That's actually a myth, by the way. It's been proven that sex does not inhibit an athlete's ability to play to peak performance. It's the break-ups right before the first pitch that are a (TinyHyphen)...

I don't worry a lick about Cairo or any replacement level player. Now I know why thanks to Cliff's latest post.

Another super productive injury free year from Posada, that THAT gets my all my prayers because at present a couple of months without Jorge will have an impact. Anybody have a clue what's going on with our future catcher or is he still playing video games in high school somewhere?

A very simplistic way of looking at it is the Yankees spend a lot more $$$ per AB for starters than bench players even though those ABs all have largely the same value against the bottom line. For example, the Red Sox pay Julio Lugo $5M for 500 ABs. It only follows that they would pay a bench IF $1M for 100AB.

I'm not complaining about the Yankees lineup - it's fantastic. But if I were a GM in the AL assembling a team from scratch I think I'd design in at least one platoon and try and rotate 3 players between 1 position and DH to give all three players 400 ABs. That's not something the Yankees can do as currently constructed so they are stuck getting junkbin bench players who are happy with 100-150 ABs.

2 Shaun, great catch on the Type-A status of Graffanino. I had indeed noticed that earlier this winter but completely forgot about it when writing the above post.

3 Another thing I left out of this post is that Miguel Cairo's primary contribution to last year's team was his ability on the bases. In limited duty he stole 13 bases in 14 attempts and over the past three seasons combined he's swiped 37 bags in 44 tries (84%). That's being able to run more than a little. Meanwhile the only farm hand who looks like he might be able to manage even Cairo's low level of production at the plate is Cannizaro, who's not 25, he's 28, and he's 36 for 62 (58%) on the bases in his six year minor league career.

1 Jim, this post is only about the utility infield spot, first base and back-up catcher are separate posts.

11 Oh, and translation on the Type-A free agent thing: had the Yankees signed Graffanino they would have lost their first-round draft pick. Not at all worth it for a modest upgrade on the bench.

11 Thanks, Cliff. I still can't believe Tony Graffanino is a Type A free agent, but there you are.

Crazy free agent ranking fun fact #2: Not only is Graffanino a Type A, so are such luminaries as Rich Aurilia, Todd Walker, and Jose Vidro.

Crazy free agent ranking fun fact #3: Meanwhile, if Scott Rolen were a free agent, he would be a Type B.

Its all right there in black and white:
http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx

OT: I see on the Yankees MLB page that some AAA pitching prospect I've never heard of is tearing it up in the Venezuelan League as a reliever. Does anyone know anything about Francisco Butto beyond his minor league stats (age 26, RH, 6'1 200)?

From MLB.com: "The right-hander has appeared in more games for the Tigres de Aragua than any other pitcher currently participating in the Venezuelan Winter League playoffs. Butto has pitched in nine of the 12 postseason games for the 8-4 Tigres and he has a 1.13 ERA. He also leads the circuit with four saves in the playoffs."

14 A slow week or two for news will make just about anything or anyone a story. As I wrote on some other thread, Butto is, as you say, 26 years old and didn't crack Triple-A until last year. He's never dominated his level. His ceiling is Scott Proctor and I'd be very surprised if he ever reaches even that.

The reason the Yankees can survive Jeter going down, or Knobby going down, or oh I dunno, Sheff and Matsui going down at the same time is that they build their redundancy or "depth" into the starting 9 not the bench.

Their starting lineup is so freaking sick, that they don't need a bench full of guys who can reasonably approximate the starters production, because there ARE NO BENCH GUYS LIKE THAT.

Great analysis Cliff, it's good to have you back.

I think one thing to remember is that with MKZY/Phelps as the 'everyday' 1B, whenever a star (star being defined as any regular save MKZY/Phelps) goes down, Giambi goes to first, an OFer goes to DH, Melky goes to the OF, and crappy replacement (Cairo or the BUC) goes in for injured star. Yet another way Melky makes the team better and more flexible - he's not just the forth outfielder, he's the first bat off the bench.

Marcus Thames potential wasn't scary. He had one big year in Norwich (AA) in 2001 at age 24. Other than that, from the time he got out of low A ball until 2003 he never had an 800 OPS in the minor leagues.

anyone else annoyed that the yankees convinced cano to switch to number 24 so that 22 would be open for clemens?

19 Where'd you hear that?

20
http://tinyurl.com/2qt7gx

I wonder how many times an old timer has asked this of himself: Should I retire, or go pitch for the New York Yankees.

Pass on Clemens, please.

21 I'm usually the voice of reason on these things, but I honestly expect Clemens to come back. A lot of subtle signs (beyond the usual slow news day filler) are pointing that way. I'll take him.

I'm suprised Cano didn't take 29 to satisfy his Rod Carew fetish.

19, it says Cano volunteered, and that no one asked him to... but i guess you're calling BS on that. I'll choose to believe he gave it up freely, because otherwise I'd be disgusted, and because Cano seems like that kind of a good guy.

That says he voluntarily did it, not them convincing him. I'm on the fence with Clemens, honestly. If he really wanted to come back here as opposed to angling for the best contract, I'd be happy to have him even at mid-season. Meh...

24 25 how many major leaguers decide to switch their numbers?

...how many for someone who isn't even signed to a deal with their team?

i don't doubt that cano would be cool about it if he was asked, he seems pretty laid back, but it stinks for clemens haters who paid for a cano jersey.

Bryan Smith has posted his Top 75 prospects at Baseball Analysts: http://baseballanalysts.com/

Hughes is #4, Tabata is #23 and Sanchez is #52. Clippard is on the Honorable Mention list. In his writeup, he suggests that Sanchez' move the bullpen will be permanent.

I'm becoming tired of the Rocket spectacle. I think his status has been inflated so much over the last few seasons that he might not be worth the drama. Remember when he was trying to get #300? It became a distraction and I'd prefer a more focused team. When Rocket is on the hill, it's all about him. That's fine in HOU and maybe even in Beantown, but I don't think anybody should get "special treatment" in pinstripes and you know that's going to be a sitcking point for him. Especially since he's proven that he's no more than another hired gun (albeit an exceptional one). The #-thing is just the tip of the iceberg. What's next, Rocket doesn't have to shave? Rocket can grow his hair however long he wants? Drive up Boston's price, let them deal with the added media and clubhouse issues and boo him in the Bronx when he comes (if he doesn't skip the turn).
Wow, even I didn't realize how frustrated I've become with this whole "will he, won't he" BS.

How did Robie become the second best second baseman in baseball? Two years ago, he had hands of stone. Is it the Bowa factor?

242526 Soriano switched numbers when the Yanks reaquried Wells. Nate Robertson switched numbers when the Tigers acquired Rodgers. As for switching numbers as a "recruiting technique," I don't know of any precedent.

Speaking of numbers, there's been a bit of stink in Detroit regarding Sheffield's taking of #3 (Alan Trammell's old number).

30 i know that others have changed their numbers before, but usually at someone's request, as you mentioned. i've just never heard of a guy doing so for this purpose. it grinds my gears because it is cano... doing this for clemens... ugh.

(and for the record, soriano changing digits for wells bothered me, too.)

Well, Cano was named after Jackie Robinson, and 24 is 42 backwards...

32 ooooooo... if that has anything to do with this, i rescind all whining and such. good call. if all of this comes to pass, i will convince myself of the jackie myth. thankz, yankz.

11 I understand that this post was only about the UIF slot.

However, when a team is constructed you need to also pay attention to the greater whole. The fact is:

a) The starting IF is old.
b) The catcher is ancient.
c) The youngest IF missed 6 weeks.

The likelihood of injuries increases and that places a greater depndence on a quality bench.

In past years (Jeter, Knobs, Cano) they could more easily sustain an extended loss with Luis Cairo prodcution AND younger players at all the IF positions.

If anything, there's even more of an increased likelihood of injuries at multiple positions. Sure, some would say last year was a fluke - I think it was more than likely. Why not overpay for a bit more insurance now?

17 It's a great scenario, and I would prefer Giambi starting half of the time because of it. Still, they seem intent on making him a DH. Yet, they go years without acquiring a 1B.

excellent analysis, cliff. i caught the post super late last nite. it really is nice to have you back...

yesterday = Scrabble is a kickass nickname, esp. since Eye Chart is apparently taken (?)

i was wondering what would happen, #-wise w/ Cano/Clemens if it came to be. it really does seem like it's gonna happen. Rocket was sporting one of his WS rings the other day... i was surprised Brad Penny (of all people) wouldn't give up #31 when Maddux joined the Dodgers. Maddux being Maddux didn't care, but i thought it would've been a nice, respectful gesture for Penny to offer the number...

The Post was saying the Yanks asked Cano to switch... mlbtraderumors brought up the wily mo #22 situation in beantown. this is a bit silly...

Hey, hang on to those Cano #22 jerseys; they'll be quite a collector's item someday!

35 "A Penny saved is a Penny durned..."

34 Man, you're just a bulldog about this infielder issue. For what it's worth, old is subjective in baseball. Jeter is old in babseball years, but not old in quality, and neither is A-Rod. Giambi would have been in the catagory if he didn't (allegedly) shoot himself up with PHD and then (allegedly) suffer withdrawal, and Cano old and by inference lame??? Posada could still kick four out of five asses in the majors with a broken nose to boot.

I don't know what else to say, man.

I don't know why Cano just didn't hold on to it. I assume you can't change #'s mid season or something? If you can he's forfeiting a nice payout from Rocket (unless a deal is already in place). If it is 36 then that's a hell of a chess move. Ball's in your court Theo. (If that IS the reason, while silly, it's the kind of sh!t-starting George loves to stir up).

39 Like Cliff said, slow news week. George is the master at that kind of stuff...

29 I think it is an offense issue. He is the best in the AL because really, what is his competition? He may be the 2nd best in the NL because really, what is his competition? We are in a dark era for second basemen I believe.

I am not nearly as bothered by the Cairo signing as some people. Anyway, I expect that should a middle infielder go down for any extended period of time, recently acquired Alberto Gonzalez will be called up and get the bulk of the playing time.

He still has prospect status, and should be getting regular playing time...he will get that in AAA and not on the big league club.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if he were the utility infielder in 2008.

39 You can change your number mid-season.

A couple of years ago, David Wells had number 3 for Boston, and then later in teh season Renteria had number 3.

I can't imagine why anyone would criticize the idea of Clemens returning to the Yankees. Pitching ability aside, I would love to have him hanging around Hughes, Sanchez, et al.

Like it or not, Clemens could very well control the balance of power in the AL East, and Cashman would be foolish if he was anything but pro-active in seeking his return. I could care less what it takes to get him. When you are clearly one of the top players all-time on "your side of the ball", then you deserve some perks.

43 I believe those perks have a cost at the expense of the rest of the team. Do those costs overtake the benefits, well that's for the season performance to decide. My ideal pref is to have him stay in HOU where he gets to feast on the crappy NL lineups and pitchers to his heart's content before he rides off into the sunset. He's already retired as a Yankee.

41 Alberto Gonzalez is just more of the same, except right now he's only played four games above Double-A. His big selling point is his glove, but if you were to stick him in the majors this year I'd be surprised if he was able to hit his weight. He wasn't even invited to spring training.

And yes, 29, 41, the Cano evaluation was based largely on his offense, though his defense did improve markedly last year as well, which makes the statement easier to make.

Some people are nuts.

Getting worked up about Robby Cano voluntarily and apparently happily changing numbers so that the greatest pitcher since WWII could wear 22?

Really? we're upset about that? It's not like they asked Robby to contract Genital Herpes to help woo Clemens.

Sheesh.

Maybe I don't take things seriously enough.

a) The starting IF is old.
b) The catcher is ancient.
c) The youngest IF missed 6 weeks.

ARod, Jetes, Cano, Scrabble. 31,32,24,31 are not spring chickens, but I would hardly call them old. Mantle was old at 34... but thats a different era and the guy was permanently injured. How many players 40+ are still posting good numbers? 35+?

Posada is 35. Pudge is 34. Aside from Fisk, there are a number of catchers who were very productive at 35. But you must factor in the Posada was converted from INF to C late in his career. He has the knees of a 31 year old. Yes... he's getting old... but ancient?

So Cano, whos still a kid, pulled a muscle. So what? Whats your point?

Jim Jim Jim.... I did lots of acid when I was younger, but now my percerptions are just fine. Dude... please.... you need mega doses of vitamin C.

27 Smith has a pretty nice writeup on Hughes: http://tinyurl.com/2k9fke

"If Roger Clemens does not return to the Bronx in 2007, Hughes will be the hot-button issue in New York come June. By then, Hughes will be dominating AAA with every outing. The Yankees have done a fabulous job preparing Hughes for his midseason call-up, slowly increasing his workload in the minor leagues. With 146 innings last year, Hughes should be able to pitch consistently through October, by which time he might already be the Yankees' No. 2 starter. Far more impressive than Hughes' heavy sinker or jaw-dropping curveball is his understanding of pitching; he is the most intelligent phenom in recent memory. Hughes does not give in to any bat, rarely allows free trips to first base, and gets groundballs consistently from the stretch. Hughes is as good as a New York pitching prospect has been in a long time."

47 Make that Vitamin C2.

46 my personal reaction has less to do with cano than it does my personal distaste for mr. clemens.

yes, he's a certain HOFer and will likely help whoever he decides to play for, but i can't stand the thought of him in a yankee uniform again. i'd just rather not have him on the team.

the fact that he's already getting the yankees to ask "how high" does little to endear him to me.

if winning mehmattski's respect is ca$hman's goal, than clemens' goal must be to get under my skin.

some people despise paris hilton, others certain political figures, i can't stand roger clemens. i'm not proud of it.

(also, i heard that clemens demanded that craig biggio conract the clap before he went to houston... whenever their paths crossed, every 5th day or so... unless they were on the road of course in which case clemens couldn't be bothered to show up, roger would laugh and shout, "look everybody! it's clappy!" ...and you'd want him on your team?!? not me. no thanks. also... he kicks puppies.)

42 The Wells case was kind of unique. He chose #3 in admiration of the Babe. He then abandoned the uniform when he felt that the Babe was cursing him.

A recent Yankee example of a mid-season uni-switch was Bubba Crosby, who switched from #19 to #18 when the Yanks acquired Al Leiter. He then switched back to #19 the following spring to make room for Johnny Damon.

I think it may be time for a "Do we want Clemens" thread. As I mentioned before, he posted a 3.99 ERA with the Yanks his last go round... and that was 3 years ago. Even with just pitching 1/2 season, he wore down October. Would this just be the second coming of RJ?

Are we expecting a sub 4.00 ERA from him? Will he get paid over 1$mil/start for a 4.50 ERA?

What are we expecting from this guy?
The dude is a serious primadonna
I don't want Boston to get him, but I'm not sure if I want him either.

Thoughts?

34 Jim, is it that difficult for you to let go of this topic for just a day?

Yes, Cano is doing great but he is still getting taxi fare right now no matter how important he is to the team. Until he signs a long term contract with the Yankees, why wouldn't he do anything to please the organization especially when he only wore the number for 2 years? He's still got plenty in him to make the number 24 meaningful.

46 Greatest pitcher since WWII?

Possibly, but it will take another two half-seasons for Rocket to overcome Warren Spahn in wins.

50 Meh. (Ben Stein voice) I'm neither here nor there about Clemens. If we get him, whoopee. If we don't, whoopdee-damn-do. (/Ben Stein voice)

46 You need a light there, buddy?

Great job as usual Cliff. Glad you're back.

46 I'm with you Schteeve. If he wants to offer up his number as a "loaner" for a season to help get Clemens, good for him.

I wouldn't mind seeing Roger back in pinstripes, but I really don't want to see him go back to Boston. I hope he stays in Houston.

But all of this is on the back burner for me right now, since I have been busy most of the day trying to figure out how much it is going to cost me to switch from cable to DirecTV (thanks Bud!).

I am 100% behind getting Clemens. I loved watching him perform while he was here and would eagerly welcome him back this year. Getting to watch an immortal is pretty neat, IMHO. I also disagree with those who claim Clemens wasn't a real Yankees. He definitely ranks as one of my all-time favorites.

Excellent post, Cliff. I'm one of the few people who don't mind having Miggy on the bench (even if Torre's man-love for him can get frustratng at times), but it was nice to see some sort of validation for bringing him back.

As for Cano/Clemens, is it definite that Cano is switching numbers? The story I read on espn.com used an IF, as in: Cano would be willing to switch numbers if Clemens comes back.

I hope Clemens either retires or stays in Houston, but I'd rather see him pitch here than in Boston.

FWIW, PECOTA thinks Clemens is due for another good-to-great year in '07. Caveat - the forecast was probably done with Clemens as an Astro, not a Yank or a Red Sox, but if the rough translation is to add about .25-.5 a run to ERA and knock the K/9 rate down a bit - its still a heck of a forecast.

If rested and healthy, Clemens would be a great weapon to have for the postseason, presuming the Yanks make it. I wouldn't mind seeing him in pinstripes again.

58 mlb.com already lists Cano as #24 on the Yankee roster: http://tinyurl.com/6nga7

60 Thanks. Man, that just looks weird.

Rickey will not be happy with this revelation. On the other hand, he may be too busy being Rickey to notice. GOAT (leadoff)

45 Alberto Gonzalez is on the 40-man roster and therefore does not need an invite to Spring Training.

62 Neither is Tino, or Kevin Maas... I think Big Rube is griping a bit too :)