Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale has some interesting notes on Brian Cashman and the Randy Johnson trade. In addition to revealing the degree to which the Johnson deal was influenced by Randy's unhappiness in New York, the article contains some remarks from Cashman confirming the approach that has been evident on the transaction wire. Sez Cash: "I've been very vocal and stated our goals. We want to reduce payroll, improve our farm system, get younger and have more flexibility." Can't get much clearer than that.
Speaking of the Johnson deal, about which I'm surprisingly lukewarm, the Yankees inked Luis Vizcaino, the homer-happy righty setup man they acquired in the deal, to a one-year, $3-million contract on Wednesday, thus settling with their only arbitration-eligible player.
On a personal note, my apologies for my disappearance from this space over the past month. I've just finished editing Baseball Prospectus 2007, a monstrous task, as you may have heard from my cohort Steven Goldman (Steve and Christina Kahrl are BP's editors on the book; starting with this year's edition and for the next two years, I am the publishing house's editor). With that done, I'm back in action as we hurtle toward pitchers and catchers, which is now just 27 days away.
craig wilson signed with the Bravos for 1yr/$2mil
Great to see you back at the Banter.
Surprised you're lukewarm about the Unit trade. I'm excited about the prospects/suspects the Yanks received for Johnson. Bottomline: I'd rather see the Yanks' young pitchers try (and even fail) than sit through another Big Uninspired performance. While I appreciated his effort, working through the pain and all, Randy's last game against Kenny Rogers was enough for me.
I imagine you're 30 degree less than lukewarm about Mientkiewicz and Cairo.
1 Here's hoping Cashman, upon returning from vacation, will try to trade Doug Out for Wilson.
Care to elaborate on your "lukewarm" comment?
Me, I see an inherent contradiction in:
"It's time for the Yankees get back to their roots".
and acquiring a gajillion RHP.
Further:
"We're very proud of the depth we have from the lowest level to the top and excited about the potential."
If he's talking about the pitching, then he should feel okay. It's just everything else - namely the players that play everyday -that's lacking. And those were the roots of the Mean Gene Dynasty.
"Cashman moved when Arizona offered Ohlendorf. The right-hander went 10-8 with a 3.29 ERA last season in 28 starts for Double-A Tennessee."
I think that's our answer. Cashman wanted Ohlendorf, and the rest was the best window dressing he could get. I don't think the deal was done because it was bombastic. RJ wanted out, and Cashman made the trade which furthered his 'announced' goals.
Nobody can predict what RJ would have done as a Yankee. He could have gone either way. However, we have missed some deals in the past because we had nobody young to trade. We have spent our way into the red. Nobody wants a 'rebuilding' year at the sacrifice of the post season.
But look at Cashman's formula. If we have quality people working in the background, and we donate our financial resources to building the farm, and STILL have enough cash to buy the occasional high-end FA... we should be unbeatable.
2 years ago, between a depleated farm and an already old team, many of us feared what the future of the team would be. We've seen it before. In 1963, we have a team full of high quality veterans. by 1965, we had a team of over-the-hill veterans with no farm to pick up the slack. Look at the 1965-1970 teams... and that's where we were headed.
I don't know if Jim Dean was rooting for the Yankees in 1965, but I was. If may have been the worst period in Yankee history since the Babe. With free-agency in place, we may never get THAT BAD again, but we were headed straight in that direction. In 2 years Cashman has turned us around, while still keeping him in the PS hunt.
That's the big picture. That's what Cashman is paid 5 mil/yr........ errr... 2 mil/yr to do. Is Cashman the best? The worst? Does he wear brown shoes with a black suit? I don't know and don't care. FINALLY this team is headed in the right direction, and I'm happy Cashman is steering the boat.
(welcome back, dood)
as per the RJ trade (yeah yeah yeah, it's been done, but i was too busy to comment at the time):
i can't help but feel like Cash$ could have gotten more, but i AM stoked about what he DID get. i am really hoping that this off-season is an indication of the kind of moves we are going to be making in the future. many of the teams that have won over the last few years have not been cavalcades of stars, rather, collections of young(ish) everyday-reliable players with a few superstars peppered in. it appears that cashman has begun to move towards the young(ish) part of that equation with the acquisition of so many Young Righty Prospectish pitchers. now he needs to learn how to fill holes with players with a little more upside than Minty Boy at 1B.
Do the Dallas Green and Stump Merrill teams qualify for also-rans or honorable mentions?
As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Vizcaino's HR rate last year was almost identical to Farnsworth's (as were his K and BB rates). That's kind of interesting, since Vizcaino's GO/AO rate is much higher. Could it be that Vizcaino has a sinker that sometimes forgets to sink?
I too would love to have your take on the Unit trade, and the status of the bench too.
4 "If we have quality people working in the background, and we donate our financial resources to building the farm, and STILL have enough cash to buy the occasional high-end FA... we should be unbeatable."
The Yanks should be consistently great with that formula, and that nicely sums up why I like Ca$hmoney so much too.
"The Yankees had the best record of all teams in the 80's."
Ugh.
8 Except the farm isn't being built. RHP is being built.
It's like just planting carrots and expecting sustenance.
I mean I like carrots and all, and they're good for you, but you can't eat them every day. Further, it's like expecting carrots every year when you're in an area where they don't grow all that often.
That's fine and all, sport. But to a kid growing up in the 80's, losing was all I knew until 1996.
I went to my first game in 1983 as a five year old. So, for me, and my early mind, there were a few years of hopelessness in there.
Baseball cards gave hope of a better tomorrow in guys like Bam Bam and Roberto Kelly. It was like a vision from the future.
I bet we'll someday be saying the same thing about a certain 3rd baseman we know and love. "Who is that happy guy over there?!?. I don't remember him."
It's unfortunate, really.
You may have felt better about the 80's because you experienced 1977 - 1981 (and maybe 1921 - 1928). I didn't have that luxury. My generation had nothing.
Except for, like I said 10, that retort to all my Sox friends.
I pray I don't live through that period again. I also pray that I don't end up in elementary schoool again.
I'd say pinstripe haters are pitiless creatures regarding the Yankees.
As bad as things got for the Yanks in the Vietnam Era, and as powerful as the O's and A's had become, the Yanks were still dreaded and despised in the Yankee-hating conscience.
I'll never forget seeing "The Bad News Bears" for the first time.
1976. I was ten years old, shocked, thrilled, and delighted by the language of the movie, and Matthau's performance.
I thought the Yankees, cast as the villains of the story, was a cliche, and an inaccurate one at that, because the Yanks, despite all I'd read about them in my baeball history books, had done nothing but inspire hostile indifference for as long as I'd been alive. (thought that sentence might never end?)
In 1975, when the movie was shot, they finished in 3rd place, around 5 games over .500.
Yet in the "Bad News Bears" the Yankees remained the corrupt, powerful beast that could never be defeated.
I remember the audience cheering Tanner's line: "Hey Yankees, you can take your apology and your trophy and shove 'em straignt up your ass!"
Don't get me wrong, I was rooting for the Bears, but the line struck me as humorously inapporpriate as just about any in the movie.
Pity the Yanks? They could lose for a hundred years and I don't think they'll ever be pitied by their haters.
In 2004, that would have ended up on the front page of the Post, and they probably would have sold out for the first time in their existence. In 1975, that likely would have met with blank confusion, long and hard laughter or (in RSN) the gnashing of teeth and rioting in the theaters. Try it out with some other teams; I'll bet the reaction would be no less ambivelent for 1975.
10 Jim, you've said that stocking up on RHPs and nothing else is not the way to build a farm system. I agree with you, and I bet Cashman does too. However, like Rome, a farm system isn't built in a day. The system lacks impact bats right now (beyond Tabata, who's 18, and Jesus Montero, who's 16) but that could be turned around as soon as the 2007 draft.
And, think about it like this. Where are the greatest number of potential holes for the 2007 Yankees? The pitching staff. Not one of the projected starters is a guarantee to make 30+ starts. In fact, I'd say odds are high that both Moose and Pettitte miss a month. (Insert your own Pavano joke here - no offense to the Pavano bandwagon.) The pen has similar issues. Mo missed over a month last year, Farnsworth can't pitch back-to-back because of his back, and Proctor may be a timebomb thanks to Torre's extreme usage of him in 2006.
What is the best possible remedy for that? Tons and tons of young pitching that, if needed, could be called up to the majors very soon and do reasonably well.
Its very hard to find decent replacement pitching in in-season trades, as we all know from the last two years, unless you overpay, which the Yanks aren't willing to do (and shouldn't be). Trying to find decent pitching on the 'free talent' market gets you guys like Kris Wilson, Tim Redding, Scott Erickson, etc. and hoping and praying that they work out like Chacon and Small did in '05, which is almost certain to never happen again.
On the hitting side, the odds of injury (of the non-fluke variety) to one of the regulars are much lower. And getting a decent replacement, either by trade or by 'free talent' is likely easier, as there are more such guys available. Or you can go for better than decent and get an Abreu-like guy by taking on salary, which the Yanks can easily do, or give up some of the plethora of young pitchers that teams covet. Caveat - if Posada gets hurt, getting an equal replacement for him is impossible; getting a league average catcher though, ought not to be hard.
I guess what I'm trying to say is, I wouldn't be so down on all the RHPs the Yanks have. Let's see what the landscape looks like come July. If the Yanks spend their first 10 picks on right handed pitchers, then its a different story. I bet they won't.
Only, you can't bring him on road games; the Dodgers had to give up on him because he was always going right instead of left at Albuquerque...
He would be well worth the commitment.
But to the Sox Fans, I would always just smug say "Groundball to first base..."
That would quiet them pretty quick. No longer now... Sigh.
I remember reading articles by both Dick Young and Red Smith about the deplorable state of the franchise and I believe it was Red Smith's term "the objects of pity" that caused Mike Burke to go on the air on WPIX and squeal about all the "hyperbolic nonsense" being printed.
I can't recall that "BOSTON RED" ever pitied us then but we were sure as hell getting it elsewhere and did it suck.
I suppose each of us has a time that we can look to that simply stunk. I guess the important thing is, no matter when that time was that we are grateful for the good times we are experiencing now. I guess the point is the bad times really help one appreciate the good. Never in my life did I ever expect to experience a run like this. It has really been a lot of fun since '95. Hell it would have been fun in '94 if things hadn't gone south.
A sabermetric analysis of Bugs Bunny
http://tinyurl.com/g4u6w
(quite possibly the BEST mix of humor and baseball in a single post ... ever)
http://tinyurl.com/2w6knt
BTW, here is a recap of one his most famous performances...
http://tinyurl.com/3y696n
http://tinyurl.com/yucob2
(If you go to tinyurl.com, you can turn on their preview feature, which will show you a snapshot of the page before taking you there; guess I had it wrong yesterday, SSTN.)
Further, every OF is going on their year 33 season and their catcher is going on his year 35 (turning 36 in August) season.
For those positions there is absolutely no "depth" in the system. At AAA or A+. When Jesus and Jose have at least two good MiLB seasons under their belts, then talk to me about them. Until then, they don't exist.
As for the pitchers - before they acquired 6 additional RHP this off-season, they already had Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Clippard, Beam, Bean, Veras - should I go on?
26 You're being dense (we can sling insults around all day). Pitching prospects are extremely unpredictable. So they're less valuable than legit position prospects. It will take trading two or three of those recently acquired arms to get one position prospect back. What does that tell you about value? (Hint: I'll give you two fives for a ten). Why? Because no one knows what the pitchers will be worth (unless they're Phil Huge) but they have much better knowledge of what the position prospect will do.
Further, if Cashman had any intention of acquiring position prospects, why go through all the trouble of acquiring pitchers to then turn around and trade them? Why waste all that energy when your dealing partners had good position prospects but no where to play them?
I'm just talking about what they needed this off-season. And more RHP wasn't it. I've been very consistent on that point since the Unit deal.
Sure, the June draft will tell us more. But around then I have a feeling we'll be enduring AB's from Cairo and TR Nieves.
1961 - 1st out of 10 teams
1962 - 1st out of 10 teams
1963 - 1st out of 10 teams
1964 - 1st out of 10 teams
1965 - 6th out of 10 teams
1966 - 10th out of 10 teams
1967 - 9th out of 10 teams
1968 - 5th out of 10 teams - 83 wins - Roy White hits his stride
1969 - 5th out of 6 teams - Bobby Murcers first full year
1970 - finally fielding a team with some hope, they won 93 games. The main reasons were a mature Roy White, Bobby Murcer, the aquisition of Danny Cater (who hit .301) and especially some funny looking kid from the farm who played catcher and won ROY. God bless you Thurman.
Basically, from 1961 - 1964, a four year span, the average was:
1st place out of 10
From 1965 - 1969, a five year span, the average was:
7.5th place out of 10
101 years of standings: http://tinyurl.com/2yhgrh
Actually, I loved those text only games. Maybe that's one of the reasons I love this site so much. ;-)
/Zork-geek memory-lane discussion
And by the way, people over-play George's spending. Most of the pieces were filled by means of brilliant trades (Lyle, Nettles, Piniella, Chambliss, Maddox -- an interim step, Bonds -- who we flipped for Rivers and Figgy, Randolph, Dent).
Cashman: If only one-in-ten RHP become major leaguers then if we have 20 we'll have two solid major league pitcher!
Jim: Except Cash, for that same price, you'd have ten full-time position players.
Cashman: We'll have two major league pitchers! Have you seen how expensive those are!
(Hint: The first names that came to YOUR mind White, Murcer, Carter, Munson).
If you guessed position prospects - you win!
And the two oldest players on the team happen to be pitchers - Moose (38) and Mo (37). Both of whom were injured last year. And the year before. And the year before. Need I go on? Pettitte is also old (35) and another guy with a littany of injuries the last few years.
"Further, every OF is going on their year 33 season . . ."
Age aside, those three guys happen to be among the most durable players in the game. Damon hasn't played less than 145 games since his rookie year (1995). Abreu hasn't played less than 151 games since his rookie year (1997). And because of last year's fluke injury, Matsui missed a game for the first time in what, a decade? You're also ignoring Melky - an in-house replacement ready to step in if one of these guys gets hurt - and likely to give them all rest at DH because he himself needs playing time.
Then there's A-Rod - on the DL once his entire career (1999) - and Jeter, who, Huckaby-related fluke injuries aside, annually plays 150+ games.
Giambi is the oldest position player (8 months older than Posada) but he's supposed to DH most of the time, which ought to keep him fresh.
While Cano missed time with the hammy last year, a youngster like him is exactly the kind of guy to not likely suffer that injury again the following year.
". . .and their catcher is going on his year 35 (turning 36 in August) season."
Yes. Posada may be on the verge of a breakdown. Losing him for a long period of time could be devastating. But that's one guy (I bet Posada is the only red light hitter on Will Carroll's team injury report). Which is worse, losing Posada for a couple of months, or losing Mo, Moose, and Pettitte for a couple of months each?
"For those positions there is absolutely no "depth" in the system. At AAA or A+."
True. But like I said, which is easier to get, a replacement hitter who will put up league average numbers (or slightly better), or multiple replacement pitchers who will put up league average numbers? The hitters, of course.
"As for the pitchers - before they acquired 6 additional RHP this off-season, they already had Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Clippard, Beam, Bean, Veras - should I go on?"
Yes, please do. Karstens (aka "Scary Flyball Guy") is the likeliest to implode because he gives up so many flyballs. Rasner, in case you forget, was on the 60-day DL last year (injury flag). Hughes and Clippard ought to spend most of the year at AAA for development purposes/injury protection purposes - after all, young pitchers are probably the likeliest players to suffer severe injuries. I think you would agree that killing Hughes's arm to win now (a la Steve Avery and the Braves in the early 90s) would be a crime. Beam is a reliever. The Yanks clearly have no use for Bean at the major league level. Veras is probably the worst of this bunch.
There is value to having that much pitching depth. For starters, it protects you from the guys who get hurt, don't develop, etc - like you said, "Pitching prospects are extremely unpredictable." And they are in demand - making it possible to trade a bunch for, say, a Carlos Zambrano.
But to say that pitching prospects are less valuable than legit position prospects overlooks what MLB teams are always trying to do - find the next huge pitching star, which is inherently more rare than the next huge hitting star. In part because it can be so hard to identify such a guy in advance (see Prior, Mark). Their unpredictability is part of what gives pitching prospects (and pitchers in general) value - you never know when a throw-in to a trade to get an established catcher (one Fransisco Liriano) develops into the best young pitcher in the major leagues.
http://www.xs4all.nl/~pot/infocom/zork1.html
I was born the year after the Bombers' last WC in the 60's and came of age as a Yankee fan during the Lindy McDaniel era. Those teams set my expectations, which continue actually to this day, that if I get my hopes up, they will ultimately let me down. I've witnessed nine pennant winners and 5 world champions, and I still expect them to lose in the end.
sounds familiar.
One last thing; here are the OPS+ and number of ABs Joe Girardi had during the "dynasty" years:
1996 - 422 ABs (4/6 of a season), 81 OPS+
1997 - 398 ABs (4/6 of a season), 70 OPS+
1998 - 254 ABs (2.5/6 of a season), 84 OPS+
1999 - 209 ABs (2/6 of a season), 65 OPS+
Having a crappy offensive catcher is not the end of the world.
And what that, I'm done. I'm not going down this road anymore.
They already had replacements in the system for them. And I didn't have a problem with acquisition of some RHP, just not the whole lot for Shef, Wright, and Unit.
"Age aside..."
How can you leave that aside? That's like talking about a woman who's 200 pounds overweight. Weight aside, she's HOT!
Injuries happen - dislocated shoulder here, a broken wrist there, PED flameout there, a torn ligament here. The only way to plan for them is with depth. And that's defintely not Cairo, MCI, or TR Nieves nor is in anything in the system now.
That speaks directly to your point 22 that what they really needed was pitching.
The pitching they already had! It's everything else they needed.
Further, you tear apart the pitchers I mentioned as not being able to replace Mo, Moose, or Pettite.
But the pitchers they acquired this off-season are no better. It's not like they improved in the pitching depth department. The just replicated what they already had! If that!?
Let me ask you, Shaun, if Moose gets hurt who replaces him?
Pettitte?
Mo?
Was your answer any of the guys acquired this off-season?
If the Yanks had a farm stocked with position prospects, then sure go nuts on pitching. But since they already had the latter, don't they need the former?
Am I really alone on this? Really?
Still, your point is taken. But I'd argue that none of the pitchers that they acquired in the Unit deal will turn into a Wells, or Clemens, or Cone, or Key. Sanchez might, but then he needs to be a starter.
After that they had highly ranked guys already that I didn't mention:
Phil Hughes, RHP, Grade A
Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+
Humberto Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, B
Tyler Clippard, RHP, B
Dellin Betances, RHP, B
J. Brent Cox, RHP, B
George Kontos, RHP, B-
Christian Garcia, RHP, B-
Ian Kennedy, RHP, B-
Tim Norton, RHP, B-
Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, C+
Kevin Whelan, RHP, C+
Stephen Jackson, RHP, C+
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+
Everyone acquired is after Norton. The rest they already had, save Sanchez.
I am not sure, Jim:
http://tinyurl.com/2vsx2h
;-)
52 Jim, to me, you still seem to be focusing on next year and maybe 2008 only. Cashman had to take risks in order to build another dynasty. He just got rid of all the known risks. The possibility of having excellent performances from the players he traded in 5 years is almost zero. With the new pitchers he got, the chance of a few of them turning out to be valuable either as a player on the team or a chip for trade will be greater than zero. The risk may be how much greater. Cashman could only try to find out. Isn't it as simple as that?
Thank you in advance.
55 Sorry, the pitchers he got (except Sanchez) are more like Beam and Bean than Cone and Key. It just wasn't worht.
And yes, I realize I'm still bitching about the Unit trade. I'll stop now. I'll blame Cliff's lukewarm comment even as we all know that's not true.
y'know, you can always dangle those carrots that you got from the farm to market and see what people will give you for them.
sorry. i couldn't resist.
(Do you still get killed for foul language?)
http://db.gamefaqs.com/computer/doswin/file/zork_1.txt
As for the foul language, it says:
"Such language in a high-class establishment as this!"
However, each time, Jim Dean has countered with his (same) arguments, and us being dense, has even sometimes yelled at us
I guess that makes the Banter 50%/50% on the Cashman issue?
You are pulling that prospect list from John Sickels, right? He also specifically says that Norton is rated "aggressively," and that since Ohlendorf and Whelan (I would add Jackson as well) are so much closer to the majors, it would be justifiable to rank them higher.
57 "the pitchers he got (except Sanchez) are more like Beam and Bean than Cone and Key"
Comparing minor league pitchers to ones who have already finished their careers is obviously pretty useless, and I know you didn't bring up these names, but FWIW Sickels also has a retro profile of Jimmy Key up at his site, and says he would have rated Key a B-. So right between Sanchez and Ohlendorf. Or right at the "Norton line."
As for Bean and Beam, who you did mention, Colter Bean has been a relief pitcher since he was at Auburn in 1997. In 330 minor league games, he has made 6 starts. T.J. Beam was converted to a reliever after 108 IP between A- and A ball in his age 24 season. Ohlendorf and Jackson both put up good ERAs in full AA seasons at age 24. Both are more advanced starters than Beam ever was.
52 "Let me ask you, Shaun, if Moose gets hurt who replaces him?"
"Was your answer any of the guys acquired this off-season?"
I'm not Shaun, of course, but my answer would be yes. Again from Sickels, on Ohlendorf:
"He looked good in his only Triple-A start, and will return to that level in '07, waiting for a major league job to open up."
So in other words, a guy who could get starts in the event of an injury. I know the Yankees have a couple of guys who may be higher on the depth chart, but there's obviously no guarantee they will perform well either.
Look, I've said before that I think you make some valid points about the RJ trade (and I really hope something else hapens soon so we can put this whole discussion to bed). But I don't get your refusal to see any upside in the guys Cashman acquired.
Sorry for the long post everyone.
You should be able to watch MLB.tv on a mac. At least there is a download for MLB.tv mosaic for mac.
I just got one of the new Mac laptops where I am running windows on my mac laptop. So worst case scenario, i can still run PC software if I need to. So I don't really use my HP laptop anymore.
If you need more info, email offsite to jp4 theATsign columbia.edu
Why did you have to go and mention the A-word... ;-)
"Such language in a high-class establishment as this!"
Umm . . . Go Tide?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/29eks7
Bob cares .... I care ... some folks DO care (sniff)
http://tinyurl.com/267dc8
I know it's sick, but I wouldn't have minded seeing him in Pinstripes again.
I just saw an excellent movie - Pan's Labyrinth. These Spaniards know what they're doing. In any case the simplest way to describe it is how different perspectives can be gained from the same circumstances.
That's what going on here with Cashman. Some assume he has a grand master plan. Others think he's doing a good job with limited choices. Others focus on the dumb choices and fixate on how things could be better.
To each their own, but all perspectives are valuable. Some are closer to reality while others are pure fantasy. The beauty of life is we each get to choose what we believe. Even better, we seldom know where on the continuum our own thoughts lie.
Go Yanks! 26 days...
Anybody know anything about the guy?
That about sums up my opinion if that were to happen in any regard.
http://www.ebbets.com
A rumor circulated before the Cubs announced their baseball-only deal with Jeff Samardzija on Friday. It had the Cubs spending heavily on a surprise center fielder--J.D. Drew.
It doesn't seem there was anything to it, although you wonder how much longer it will be before some open contentiousness rears its head between Drew and the Boston Red Sox.
http://tinyurl.com/2n4bnh
http://tinyurl.com/387ndq
12$m for an impact player these days is cheap. 7 years... well, for a young position guy, that isn't too bad.
Should Cashman be locking up Cano?
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.