Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
As much as I feel that this is a place for me to share parts of my life with you, I also realize that you guys are primarily coming here to check out all the latest news on our beloved Yanks. I have to say that the words of support that you all have shared over the past several days has been enormously helpful. I can't tell you how much I appreciate it.
In the meanwhile, there are some Yankee tidbits--like the upcoming publication of Gary Sheffield's autobiography, which should be good for some sour grapes. More importantly, the 2008 All-Star Game may be held at Yankee Stadium. Wasn't '77 the last time an All-Star Game was hosted in the Bronx? I think it would be fitting for the House that Ruth Built to host another in its final year of existence.
For links to all of this Yankee news, and more, please refer to the great list of Yankee blogs you can find on the right-hand column of this page. If Was Watching, and Yanksfan vs. Soxfan, and Pete Abraham's blog, and the rest of the stellar sites listed here haven't covered it, it probably hasn't happened.
I always lean on baseball in tough times. I can see I'm not alone.
Thanks for sharing, Alex. At the vey least you made me think deeply about the fabric of my life. May your Dad live widely in your memories and may your emotions move you freely between time and place.
http://tinyurl.com/yf7p5v
Some highlights:
"Joe Torre called up after the Anaheim series [in late August] when we were stretched for pitchers and said, "What about bringing up Hughes?''' Cashman said. "On the next homestand, Gator [pitching coach Ron Guidry] asked me about bringing up Hughes to help out the staff. I joked with him and said, 'Nope. I'm saving him for the next pitching coach."'
"The Red Sox were so eager to sign Clemens last year that they essentially gave him freedom to write his own job description. In one scenario, for example, Clemens would have been paid $1 million per start to pitch only on Sundays, with permission to leave the team in between starts."
Il Ducci?
Iirc, last Spring training Moose and Giambi both said that Hughes had the best stuff of any pitcher in the camp, including, presumably, the big league staff.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/SHOWBIZ/books/01/18/buchwald.obit/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
http://yanksfansoxfan.typepad.com/ysfs/2007/01/projecting_the_.html
It is projecting the Sox to be anywhere between 99 and 105 wins.
If we are going to move on to baseball, the last thing I want to ignite is the old BUC/Posada's replacement argument. That said, I saw this the other day and immediately thought of you, Jim, so I thought I would share:
"Clement went that high [3rd overall in 2005 draft] because he has big pull power and was expected stay behind the plate, although he was never pretty back there.
Now he's already had his first knee surgery, he didn't hit for power in the power-friendly Cal League, and was awful in the Hawaiian Winter League. At 23, he has plenty of time to put his career back on track, but it looks likely that he's more evidence that drafting for need is usually a bad strategy in the first round."
http://tinyurl.com/2tqkfk
In any case, Clement is still rated highly and is only 23. The knee injury is worrisome, but he still has value. Further, I'm not saying he's the next Jorge or that he's the only option (see also Montero, Miguel and Mathis, Jeff). He's just better than what they have (i.e., nothing). But don't listen to me - check out his MiLB numbers and make your own decision.
But Tinyurl is not without its hassles:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TinyURL
TinyURLs are opaque, hiding the ultimate destination from a web user. This can be used to unwittingly send people to sites that offend their sensibilities, or crash or compromise their computer using browser vulnerabilities. To help combat such abuse, TinyURL allows a user to set a cookie-based preference such that TinyURL stops at the TinyURL website, giving a preview of the final link, when that user clicks TinyURLs.
TinyURLs also introduce a dependency on a third-party service that may change, go away, or maintain privacy-compromising logs of user activity indefinitely.
These and other potential problems with TinyURLs have led some corporations to block access to TinyURLs.
check it: http://yankees.lohudblogs.com/
http://www.eagletribune.com/sports/local_story_017120436?page=0
Funny that it has taken all this time for this reasoned view to make print.
As for you Alex, we be part of your extended family. Grieve and grow.
Considering their upgrades and with DiceK pitching, certainly 100 wins seems reasonable.
I hope Cashman can pull another SP out of his hat. Banking on a 1/2 year of Clemens or Hughes is not a great idea. Since Clem had a 3.99 ERA with the Yankees 3 years ago, I don't think we can count on that much from him.
Anyone with guesses what decent SPs might be available B4 the trade deadline?
4 i remember a certain mr. posada declaring that hughes had the best stuff of any pitcher at camp last spring. he even went so far as to remind the reporter that mariano rivera was in camp... and that hughes' stuff was better.
also, i love that ca$hman has already let it be known that hughes will start out in AAA no matter how he does this spring. he just put that one to bed before anyone could start any rumors... further containing expectations for his young pitchers (a la sanchez & igawa). brilliant.
http://tinyurl.com/2nvz5y
They have to make up ten games, and seeing the guys that got hurt weren't spring chickens, you can't expect those guys (Schilling, Varitek) to improve their performance. The Yanks may have improved their flexibility, but they still look like a 95-97 win club to me. If Hughes or Igawa pitch well, then maybe they bump over 100.
Otherwise, did the Sox improve 10 games with DM, Lugo, and Nancy plus Paps to the rotation? Me, I don't think so esp since they'll spend until June trying out closers. But that's why they play the games.
yes... i am this starved for baseball news...
*
What's that quote about the value of history?
Below represents the top Yankee prospects within the history of BaseballAmerica's yearly top 100 prospect ratings (http://tinyurl.com/jvqs9). Take a moment to look at this list.
2006:
39. Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
86. Eric Duncan, 3b/1b, Yankees
2005:
36. Eric Duncan, 3b, Yankees
2004:
41. Dioner Navarro c, Yankees
2003:
6. Jose Contreras, rhp, Yankees
8. Hideki Matsui, of, Yankees
55. Juan Rivera, of, Yankees
2002:
9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees
13. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
37. Brandon Claussen, lhp, Yankees
67. Juan Rivera, of, Yankees
76. John-Ford Griffin, of, Yankees
2001:
10. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
14. Drew Henson, 3b, Reds
27. Alfonso Soriano, ss, Yankees
46. Angelo Jimenez, ss, Yankees
66. Adrian Hernandez, rhp, Yankees
2000:
5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
16. Alfonso Soriano, ss, Yankees
88. Wily Mo Pena, of, Yankees
89. D'Angelo Jimenez, ss, Yankees
1999:
18. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
25. Ryan Bradley, rhp, Yankees
39. Alfonso Soriano, ss, Yankees
70. Ricky Ledee, of, Yankees
72. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
100. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees
1998:
46. Ricky Ledee, of, Yankees
71. Mike Lowell, 3b, Yankees
98. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
1997:
9. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
40. Jackson Melian, of, Yankees
64. Rafael Medina, rhp, Yankees
85. Katsuhiro Maeda, rhp, Yankees
1996:
6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers
12. Matt Drews, rhp, Yankees
1995:
4. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
49. Andy Pettitte, lhp, Yankees
78. Russ Davis, 3b, Yankees
79. Matt Drews, rhp, Yankees
1994:
16. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
18. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
26. Russ Davis, 3b, Yankees
76. Ruben Rivera, of, Yankees
84. Sterling Hitchcock, lhp, Yankees
1993:
2. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
44. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
52. Gerald Williams, of, Yankees
60. Russ Davis, 3b, Yankees
90. Sterling Hitchcock, lhp, Yankees
1992:
1. Brien Taylor, lhp, Yankees
32. Carl Everett, of, Yankees
58. Russ Springer, rhp, Yankees
83. Mark Hutton, rhp, Yankees
1991:
11. Bernie Williams, of, Yankees
30. Hensley Meulens, of, Yankees
68. Pat Kelly, 2b, Yankees
79. Willie Smith, rhp, Yankees
88. Carl Everett, of, Yankees
1990:
48. Willie Smith, rhp, Yankees
53. Deion Sanders, of, Yankees
77. Bernie Williams, of, Yankees
95. Cullen Hartzog, rhp, Yankees
96. Russ Springer, rhp, Yankees
Summary:
RHP: 11
LHP: 4
IF: 11
OF: 14
My reading of the last 18 years:
1) The boatload of RHP prospects have not amounted to anything in the Yankee organization, save for Contreras and the immortals Willie Smith and Matt Drews. Besides Contreras, has one even earned an MLB pension? Hopefully Phil Huge breaks that trend.
2) LHP prospects have faired better because of Pettitte and Hitchcock while Taylor is the seminal cautionary tale for the next few generations of pitching prospects.
3) The Yanks have done much better with their legit positional prospects. By my rough estimate about half have had significant MLB careers.
4) These trends, of the very best prospects of any given year, seem reflective of every other organization.
a. RHP prospects seldom amount to much and for the Yanks not at all.
b. LHP prospects are more likely to have value somewhere along the road.
c. Top positional prospects can be projected with very good accuracy.
That said, now realize that the recent Michael dynasty was farmed from positional prospects (and then at the most important positions C, SS, CF) with a side of Pettitte and a one-of-a-kind cup of Mo.
It's too bad Cashman missed history class, especially since he lived through it being in the Yankee organization through every one of those lists.
Hey, but those of you that think Cashman is "money" because he keeps acquiring RHP prospects enjoy the Kool-Aid. Me, I don't find it very satisfying in the long run.
btw, sal fasano signed a minor league deal with the blue jays and is already growing his fu-manchu back in full-force. tony woe-mack signed with...the nationals, who else.
1996:
6. Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
7. Karim Garcia, of, Dodgers
subtle, but hilarious.
...yet.
But even then, they do a very nice job of projecting position players (maybe 50% accuracy at least from the top 100), less so for LHP (maybe one in five), and even less so for RHP (probably 1 in 10, if that).
Looking at the lists was fun - a nice lesson in levity. I so wanted Bam Bam to be legit as a kid, if for no other reason than I had about 20 of his rookie cards.
I haven't said anything after your two prior posts because I find it odd to express condolences to someone I don't know. But there is no reason to apologize for bringing the hard parts of your life into the blog. If we can share the joy of your engagement, then we should be there for the tough parts too.
Anyway, Alex, your posts about your dad were good reads and I think meaningful to many of us in thinking about how we relate(d) to our own fathers. A guy can learn or two from reading this blog; they don't all have to be about baseball.
2 I found baseball an excellent way of finding a way to communicate with my dad. We weren't especially close, but when the phone call hit a dry spell, we could always talk about the Yankees. He wasn't a great baseball fan, but he greatly admired Mariano Rivera for his composure at the end of the 2001 Serious, and liked a lot of the other guys too. He died a week before the 2004 Boston game when Jeter went into the stands after that ball. That incident alone would have provided fodder for a couple conversations.
32 True. But Cashman seems to squeeze the life out of prospects until they either thrive in NY or lose all value. Duncan is the most recent example. If he shows something, they hold onto him - if not, he's a total. Even as 1B's should be easy to find and replace, Cashman had made it very hard.
I hope I'm wrong but if Cashman didn't want positinal prospects for Wright, Shef, or Unit, then I don't think he'll want them this year, unless an injury occurs. And then say goodbye to three of the young pitchers.
For those who don't know, here is his story. He was THE number one prospect in all of baseball. He got into a fight and tore his labrum. Now he is a bricklayer.
I didn't realize how his contract negotiations were influenced by his mom who, despite being poor, felt that 300K was a insult. Really amazing. In the end, he got over a $1 million -- the highest at the time
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-taylor060506
I'm contemplating forwarding it to the guy that wrote that Hardball Times article, but I think enough of a petty jerk as it is.
i think that ca$hman might feel a bit easier about trading from a "strength." he's got a TON of arms. similar arms in some cases. that should make it easier for him to pull the rigger if something becomes available.
i keep telling myself that he didn't land a big position prospect for wright, sheffield or johnson because in two out of those situations, the other team had him over a barrel. the tigers knew they'd probably get sheffield and that ca$hman had few other options. the same applied to the johnson deal with the d-backs. the other teams had the power in those trades, and when i look at the trades on those terms, i think he did pretty well.
as for the wright deal, i don't remember who they were offering or know who the O's have down on the farm that could help out the yankees.
wait. do they have a C prospect? if so, i will follow you into battle, sir. let me grab my grenades... jeez, they're never where i leave them... i'll find them... you go ahead, i'll catch up.
Looking at the lists another way, I see two things. First, highly touted position propsects often don't amount to much either. Second, it seems clear that the Yankees haven't had the level of pitching talent in the minors that they do now for 20 years. Why you continue to portray that as a bad thing?
And by that reasoning, figuring that NO MATTER the position, most prospects will never really make it, stockpiling a lot of guys with good arms and some potential makes even more sense, since it increases the cahnces that at least two of those guys might pan out. It also says that just because a guy might not be on your or anyone's radar doesn't mean they might not be the one to take over a spot. I don't see Jorge on that list, funny...
he very well might have. if i were the arizona front office, the 1st thing i would do is cry a little... just a few muffled sobs beneath my desk.... then if i was aware that a team was approaching me with a trade that had to be approved by their player and that player lived in my stadium's back yard and that player wanted to return to play for my team, i would hold onto my top tier positional players. because i could.
then i would learn about run-on sentences.
but with the d-backs' former scout guy whispering in ca$hman's ear, i'm sure they got as good a deal as they could manage. they want to win.
their best C prospect is ranked as the 13th best C prospect in baseball and played last season at the A level.
brandon snyder
http://tinyurl.com/2gxbd6
anyone have the scoop?
As for Wright, even though they were going to buy him out, he was a league average pitcher last year (granted for 140 innings) who the O's are now paying 3 million to pitch for them. I think the Yanks could have got a bit more, but that they didn't really try. Not a bigggie in my book.
On the Unit deal, I disagree whole-heartedly. The D.backs qwere going into Spring with a rotation of Webb, Livan, and prospects. They needed Unit more than the Yanks needed to trade him, at least now.
39 40 I guess it just depends on what you think of history. Me, I think something can be learned, namely:
1) Position prospects can be predicted with the highest accuracy.
2) LHP occassionally turn out okay
3) RHP are seldom worth anything.
If you had $100 to invest, would you put it into the stocks that hit about half the time? or the ones that hit a quarter of the time? or the ones that hit 10% of the time?
Further, in baseball the stocks that hit half the time play ALL of the games. It seems like a simple decision to me.
I suppose you could invest $10000 in the stocks that hit a tenth of the time, on the hope that the few hits will really pay off. But still, why not go with those stocks most likely to be valuable?
39 Point noted about the single appearances. Still, Matt Drews? Willie Smith?
40 Actually, to be ranked in the top 100 is to be ranked very high (Soriano, Pettitte). And if you took the time to look through the lists you'd see they're actually quite good - for the position prospects.
Sure, Jorge never made it. Nor did Mo. But it's a long stretch to say that those lists are worthless - they're helpful in gauging values. RHP prospects have unpredictable value because they're so damn hard to gauge. Again, do you want to invest in stocks that have clear earning forecasts, or those where you have no idea what they'll be worth in five years?
Besides, what's your point? Not to depend on prospect lists? Fine - don't read them.
Snyder is their catcher of the future. Bring up his name and they'll bring up Phil Huge.
but in all fairness, the offseason hasn't ended yet. give my boy a chance to finish what he started.
Now, Peter Pilittere could show something in spring training. But it would be a huge leap for the Yanks oranization to call him ready after one solid year of A+ ball. Even with a big half year at Trenton, there's no way Tea will give him starts over a more established product.
Chris Widger in June, perhaps?
for those unaware, this is from wikipedia:
"His nicknames are "El Pulpo", "The Octopus", and "Six-Fingers". He has six fingers on each hand and six toes on each foot, a condition known as polydactyly; his extra small fingers next to his pinky have no influence on his pitching, as they don't touch the ball. The trait appears to be genetic several family members have this trait, and they regard it with pride, as a kind of family emblem."
1) Position prospects can be predicted with the highest accuracy.
2) LHP occassionally turn out okay
3) RHP are seldom worth anything."
As I said, I just think it's hard to draw these conclusions solely from the Yankee lists. We are talking about 11 RHP over 17 years. I haven't looked at the complete lists though, and I don't have much trouble believing that RHP prospects are generally the most unpredictable.
On the other hand, the value of pitchers seems to increase greatly once they reach the majors and show they can perform there, and we have a bunch of guys who are very close. For example, I read recently that Billy Beane told Minaya that it would Milledge, Heilman and Pelfrey/Humber just to get Joe Blanton. Joe Blanton! I'm confident that between Tyler Clippard, Steve White, Ross Ohlendorf , Stephen Jackson and Ian Kennedy we have at least one or two guys who can be as good as Joe Blanton. But I'd imagine you aren't so optimistic about that.
48 49 I know I am in the minority, but I have a very hard time getting worked up about Cairo, et al. I mean, the guy we were all so excited to have as the back-up IF, Mark Loretta, signed for $2.5M. Cashman signed Cairo and Eye Chart for $2.25M. I just can't get too upset about that, considering what else was out there. Hopefully, this is Cairo's last year, and Alberto Gonzalez can do the job next year. And I'm hoping that come the second half, Eye Chart is a LIDR.
So is he's not twice the player Mordecai Brown was ...
Hmm, I wonder if she can play catcher.
54 It's the same trends for all organizations, and the feeling is exactly that for RHP - it's too unpredictable to get a sense of. Shoot, even at the MLB level - look at the Vazquez trade. He looked like a legit ace. The recent prices are even more reason to stay out of the mareket, and I was quite pleased with Cashman's inital moves and non-moves. The Unit trade was just overkill from an organization that could have given up good position prospects. Then the signings were further indication that he has a ways to go.
And while I wasn't a huge fan of Loretta, a few million saved should mean nothing to the Yanks. Otherwise, they learned what they had in Phillips and Cairo last year. There's no need to repeat that experiment. Chris Shelton from Detroit could have worked. Chad Tracey from ARI too. Sign Chris Gomez and they might have snagged Zaun if they had put on a hard press earlier. Other moves could have worked too. But the old tired retreads? No thanks.
I was born with an extra digit on my right hand, next to the pinky. It was nubbed at birth also, resulting in a slightly disjointed-looking pinky.
Fortunately, I'm a lefty.
I can't blame Cashman for not anticipating how the Barajas/Zaun situation would play out in Toronto. But it does indicate how hard it is to get anyone decent to agree to be a back-up.
Leaving Chad Tracy to the side (since I don't want to get into a debate about the RJ trade), I prefer the package they got for Sheffield to one built around Shelton. Maybe they could have gotten Shelton and Whelan, at most. I'd rather have Sanchez, who I'll believe they are permanently converting to a reliever when I hear soemone from the organization say so.
I doubt there are very many teams that get much more than 70 OPS+ from their backup catcher.
64 Some teams don't get a 70 OPS+ from their starting catcher. In 2006 for example, Brad Ausmus had a 53 OPS+ and Yadier Molina had a 54 OPS+. Both had more than 400 AB. By way of compaison, Kelly Stinnett had an OPS+ of 56 in his time with the Yankees, and it got him run across town.
But Jim was saying that the backup catcher, Cairo, and the first base situation would yield a composite OPS+ of 70 - I assume with the 1B platoon safely over that number, and both Cairo and the BUC well below it. I think that might be a bit low, but it is certainly in the ballpark.
Anyone watch the amazingly hilarious and wonderful Scrubs musical? Derek Jeter did not hit .303 last year!
http://www.gawker.com/maps/smell/
http://tinyurl.com/28m7zn
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