The Yanks know a good rotation is key and trading RJ for Zito improves it while also making it younger.

Besides, this "age for youth" theme, I don't buy. We wouldn't have gotten Pettite if that was the case. I think Cashman is buying a championship here. And the fastest way to get it without strapping a team...one year deals. I think Cashman is freeing money for an all out push not for Zito but for Clemens. So in reality, this isnt a RJ for Zito trade. This is a RJ for Clemens tradeoff. Which I will take in a heartbeat.

Zito is a great player, but for some reason I don't think Cashman is interested in him in the long term when you got Sanchez and Hughes in the waiting. Yankees got a short term problem and there's a better player out there who can fix that short term problem.

"Meanwhile, although the Yankees lost out on free-agent first baseman Shea Hillenbrand, who agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, they might still add a first baseman who bats left-handed. Doug Mientkiewicz, an excellent fielder, is still on the market and has drawn interest from the Yankees."

That last sentence is one of the scariest sentences you will ever read. Come on Cashman, you've steered clear of the rocks so far...you must not succumb to the sirens' songs.

"If you squint you can see the logic that's being used."
"Of course, he's not going to go 22-3. He's not likely to go 15-10. He's likely to be 43"
"Would the Dodgers drop a top prospect for a 43-year-old pitcher with no spinal column?"
"As Branch Rickey said, it's better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late"

The guy is a pleasure to read.

"The Padres were believed not to be close to an agreement with the Yankees and reluctant to absorb Johnson's $16 million salary ($1.5 million deferred without interest) in 2007."

"Teams have asked San Diego about setup man Scott Linebrink all year, and if the Padres are now willing to move him, that could facilitate a deal (for RJ) with the Yankees. Linebrink, 30, had a 3.57 ERA in 73 appearances last season. Since San Diego claimed him off waivers in May 2003, he has gone 14-9 with a 2.57 ERA over 262 games."

Scott Linebrink's current salary is 1,365,000. If the Yanks throw 5 mil into the deal, its an even swap (RJ for Linebrink) and the Yanks save $10mil this year. Isn't that worth it?

I guess the noZito.com movement didn't get off the ground as much since there was not much talk about him early in the offseason. I am just as opposed to signing Zito as fellow commenter jakewoods apparently is in favor of the signing.

Apparently stats are not enough to satisfy the people who look at Zito's birth certificate and think it's enough. It's not enough to show, as many here have done, that Zito is barely above a league average pitcher who got a lot of benefit from solid defense in Oakland the last few years. Those who were singing his praises would quickly turn on him after he walks two guys and gives up a three run home run in a key game.

So here's a theory to satisfy the "intangibles" crowd: what about Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. The rest of the Big Three have left Oakland and struggled mightily. Hudson racked up a 4.86 ERA while pitching in the NL last year... Could it possibly be that we should take consideration of these park-fatcor stats and realize that pitchers from the early 2000s in Oakland were helped tremendously by a big ballpark and a solid defense.

As for the other argument I've seen, that Zito out-dueled Santana this year in the playoffs, should the Yankees also go out and get 2006 post-season hero Jeff Weaver? I mean, he was so good in the playoffs, and the Yankees desperately need someone who can perform in October. Signing Weaver would make perfect sense to anyone who had selective amnesia, I'd imagine.

Signing Barry Zito would be Jaret Wright/Jeff Weaver/Javy Vazquez all over again, and I don't understand why more fans can't see that.

Has anyone made that point yet?

So for now, I am just hoping that Cashman can actually dump RJ and get a little something in return, and I am especially hoping that he does not sign some worthless player like Minky or Cairo (or, hate to say it, Bernie) for the various reasons you astutely point out.

Me thinks this is a smokescreen thrown up by $$$$man and that the Melky-Gonzalez deal will eventually get done. any thoughts?

I don't think Cashman will go with either AAA Kevin as the #4 OF, nor do I think that he will re-sign Bernie (cue Siren Song).

To summarize this unwritten blog entry about Zito, people reach the right conclusions (he's a good pitcher, not an ace) about Zito for all the wrong reasons (misleading stats).

He has the speed and he certainly has the defensive abilities. And he showed he could hit last yr. I dont think you can find many better 4th OF's especially one in the system and cheap.

http://gorillamask.net/fordsnl.shtml

(I had no idea that Taft was eaten by wolves.)

28 yr old, leftys like him dont come on the market often if it all. And the next 2 yrs for SP is weak at best.

You cant put your eggs in the Zambrano basket because how do the Cubs let him hit the market when they just gave Jason Marquis 21 mill and Ted Lilly 45 mill?

It makes sense to lock up a Zito and improve the rotation now.

In any case, KT is already 26 y.o (he will turn 27 late next season), so he is more or a less a 'what you see is what you get' type player. He only hit around .750 OPS in two stints at Columbus, though some of his lower Minor League numbers were quite good. I don't know about his defense--I'll take your word for it that it is good and that he can play CF (the Yankees only allowed him to patrol RF last year). So, yeah, he could be a decent #4 OF option.

But this is also the kind of player that the Yankees tend squander in the minors, opting instead to play a 'sure thing' major leaguer or a younger prospect. So like I said, I am predicting that Cashman will not trade Melky unless he knows that he is getting an OF in return, or in some other deal.

Three year or four year contract, sure. Six year deal, forget it.

Not so long as I'm above the earth.

I have spoken.

Well, you aint getting top Sp's now for less than 4-5 years. So sometimes you got to take the shot. I bet most said Mussina wouldnt last either and he did pretty well for his contract.

Tough to take the chances that all your young stud pitchers develop quick and become good.

I dunno. The Yankees, of all teams, can do whatever they want, so it's not money that's stopping them. They do have limits, but if it's essentially a trade of Randy's salary for Zito's, and back-up catcher thrown in ... do it. I wouldn't complain like I would if they offered Johnson a contract extension

But none of them are left-handed.

Plus, you could just as easily use that as an argument in favor of adding Zito. They can afford to overpay for Zito, since they will have young guys making little money. This is even more relevant when you look at what the Yankees can expect the entire rotation to cost instead of focusing on individual player salaries.

Come 2009, Mussina and Pettitte will be gone. That would leave Zito at 16M, Igawa at 4M, Wang in arbitration (if not extended at a semi-reasonable rate), then Hughes, Clippard, Chamberlain, Kennedy, et al. 2009 will be Zito's age 31 season, and he would be the oldest pitcher on the staff. That's a good foundation, and would cost about 15M less than the rotation for 2007, even if they trade RJ and don't sign Zito. That would be enough to add ANOTHER front line pitcher, if need be.

Zito's not perfect, but he is very good. The deal Zito is looking for is similar to the deal the Yankees signed with Mussina before the 2001 season. Mussina's slightly more impressive pitching pedigree might be offset by the fact that Zito is a lefty and 3 years younger than Moose was. Assuming they trade RJ, signing Zito becomes much more realistic. And I was deadset against signing Zito when the off season started.

Not much of a brag. Aren't these numbers well BELOW league average for a reliever?

But, yes, signing Mussina to that deal at age 31 was basically crazy. No one would argue that Mussina has been not "pretty good", but after a monster first year (2001), he has put up three pretty crummy years out of five (ERA+ 108, 98, 101)--certainly not worth the 15 million/year or whatever teh average of his contract was. Moreover, that contract has been albatross the last two years (19 million/year + whatever the luxury tax caused). It is obvious that the contract was overvalued, or else the team would not have declined his option for this year. So, I would actually contend that he has NOT been "pretty good for his contract."

It's these exact sort of long term contracts, like Giambi's and Bernie's, that have hamstrung the team the last few years. That is why I do not want the team to overpay players now, especially with long-term contracts.

Check out Zito's Similar Pitchers through Age 28 (on Baseball Prospectus)--that's not a pretty picture.

I will say, I don't understand the fascination with LH starting pitching. Don't RH starters have the advantage over 75% of the batter they face? I know the Stadium favors lefties, but those splits are not as extreme as they once were, and it only really matters if the pitcher is a fly ball pitcher anyway.

So in the right circumstances, Zito strikes out enough people to be a good pitcher. Our ballpark is spacious but our outfield defense is sketchy. Damon was above average last year but is a year older and always running into walls. So when he is injured, he is below average in CF. Matsui was an average fielder as was Abreu (though he has an arm). So with Zito who is a flyball pitcher, we only have one of the two ingredients required to make him a success.

That isn't going to be worth $16 mill a year.

I say if we can get a good catching prospect along with other stuff (good 4th OF or middle reliever, or mid-tier prospects), we should trade RJ. I do think we have enough starting pitching to allow us to slug our way to the pennant.

But otherwise RJ should stay. Baseball prospectus did an analysis on his numbers the last few years and seems to think that he was unlucky on his groundballs last year. Way more than normal found their way to being hits. So BP thinks he will rebound and have a good year.

From BP unfiltered:
" * Johnson struck out 20.6% of batters with the bases empty, and 19.8% with someone on base. Not much difference there.
* He yielded an unintentional walk to 7.1% of batters with the bases empty, and 9.9% with the bases occupied. That difference is a little more substantial, but it's also a natural adaptation that a lot of veteran pitchers like Tom Glavine make: there's more incentive to challenge a hitter when there's nobody on base, leading to comparatively lower walk rates.
* Johnson's BABIP with the bases empty was .239. With runners on, it was .369. This is almost certainly a matter of luck.
* So perhaps the big difference is that Johnson was getting hit up for extra bases more often with runners on base? Well, this is true: his home run rate was nearly twice as high with runners on (4.6%) than with the bases empty (2.5%). But the funny thing is that Johnson was actually doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground with runners on. His groundout-to-airout ratio was 1.09 in those situatuons, as opposed to 0.78 with the bases empty. In other words, more bad luck. "

So BP thinks that we are trading away a potential #1 Ace rather than a #2 or #3.

Given there have enough leaks in this case to literally write a book, it won't be long before those names are released.

The best statistical breakdown of Zito is here:
http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2006/12/17/20939/021

You'll see that Zito is not really a fly ball pitcher. He gives up fly balls at about a league average rate. Instead, you'll see that Zito is a popup pitcher. He induces popups at roughly twice the league average.

Big difference. Fly balls become doubles and triples and homers. Popups are outs nearly every time, and when they're not, they're just weakly hit bloopers that find a hole in the shallow outfield.

I could go on, and will, at some later date...

43 I saw that about RJ on BP. Randy really did get pounded with runners on though: an OPS against of over 1.000 with RISP, for example. Again there, the BABIP is unusually high (.405), but at least SOME of that has to be simple bad pitching. And it seems like in each bad start when he lost it, he REALLY lost. I suppose Torre and Guidry could monitor him much more closely and pull him at the first signs of implosion, but then he likely becomes a 5 or 6 inning pitcher, and that is certainly not an ace.

And if, for that money, you start expecting him to be a dominant #1 ace instead of a very reliable #2-#3 innings-eater, you're going to be disappointed.

I hope Zito ends up somewhere where he can be appreciated for what he is, instead of resented for what he isn't. I've certainly enjoyed watching him here in Oakland these past seven years, and I wish him well.

The other stat that I think IS important to note is his lefty/righty split. Lefties have a .760 OPS against him over the last 3 years, while righties put up a .716 against him. That isn't really awe inspiring with the short porch at Yankee Stadium. The park factor will eat him alive in the AL East.

What sort of comparisons do you want?

The thing is, Tim Hudson and Freddie Garcia can also be called "inning eaters", and conveniently have two of the ten most comparable careers to Zito according to BR. Both of those guys are solid pitchers that you'd love to have on your team, but I don't want either of them long term either.

When the A's have scored four or more runs for Zito he's an astounding 85-4. Great. How many of those are at home? How many of them are against AL East teams? On the road? That kind of information would make me feel a lot better about that statistical compilation. Maybe all 4 of those losses are by 10 runs in Fenway.

You may be right thurmtheman, but I don't want to take the chance when there are better contracts to be offered in the next few years. Patience is a virtue sometimes.

Sometimes you got to bite the bullet and go the five years. A 28 yr old lefty who is a 2/3 starter is certainly worth that. And the way pitchers salaries are going 15 mill wont be high in 3 yrs. Will it stop the Yankees from making moves for 5 years? No. So whats the problem? This isnt the Royals here.

You cant say what he did against the Sox either. These arent the 2003-2005 Sox now. Offensively.

If I need a #1 guy, I'll buy him. If Johan Santana is out there, I'll spend $25 million a season to get him on my club. Whatever it takes. When the #2 and #3 guys want $15-20 million per year I have to wonder. Think of it this way.

If you spend $125 million over 5 years for Johan Santana, and you're luck enough to develop a guy like Phil Hughes to slot into the rotation behind him at #2 at Major League minimum suddenly your team looks very good. If you can develop one more solid guy for your #3 and pay him major league minimum, you're golden. You have the two young studs on your team at the rookie contract, under your control for 6 years. If you start messing around with Barry Zito, and he doesn't age well, you have a lot of money tied up in a guy that the fans will start to resent.

The Yankees rotation looks very nice right now, and after the 2008 season, you'll be without Moose, Pettitte, and Pavano. If you save your big money bullet for Santana, Zambrano, or someone a bit more likely to age well (power pitcher), you can put a rotation out there of:

Santana/Zambrano
Wang
Hughes
Igawa
Sanchez/Clippard/Chamberlain/Betances

I like that much better than spending for the sake of getting every good arm that's out there at whatever cost. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.

If foul popups were a big part of his arsenal, he'd have much better numbers in Oakland than on the road. But his career road ERA is lower than his career home ERA.

If you are a bp subscriber:

Go here
http://tinyurl.com/y255rs

and download the BallsInPlayChart (BIP1.0) software ...

there you find the type of ball and direction of hit for every batter and pitcher for the last 3 or 4 years

addendum .... it won't tell you the number or % of FOUL popups, but it will give you the TOTAL # and % of them

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2710047

Doesn't say whether it's cancerous or not, but he's going to a cancer facility in Houston for the surgery.

69 I heard that this morning on 1010-WINS. Wow. Is it me or does it seem like there are a lot of baseball players (or people in baseball) affected by cancer?

http://tinyurl.com/y5o3q9

(a) Performs "better" than DM, as seen by internet geeks (K and BB and RSAA).

(b) Performs "better" than DM, as seen by popular press (Wins and ERA).

(c) Gives an average season (14 W, 10 L, 4.50 ERA, 190 IP, 150 K, 100 BB)

(d) Beats DM in at least one head-to-head matchup.

Me, I'm putting money on (b) (better run support), (c) (see run support), and (d) (law of averages).

Anyone giving odds?

http://www.lohud.com/blogs/lohudyankees.html

I guess I just don't see Zito as anything all that special. He's decent to good, but certainly not worth a 5+ year deal.

Yikes. I can't wait to hear Russo's take on it.

OK, that last part was really wishful thinking.