Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
While there is still hope that the Yankees will persue Craig Wilson as their second first baseman, The Post reports that Shea Hillenbrand is still in the mix. Over at the Times, Tyler Kepner writes that the Bombers are also looking at one Julio Zuleta, a 31-year old who has played in Japan for the past three seasons. The chief reason the Yanks are curious about Zuleta is that he's faired well against D. Matsuzaka. Meanwhile, according to Newsday, Bernie Williams' future with the Yankees is more than a little uncertain.
See: Enrique Wilson
Bernie's future is cloudy with the Yanks because even with a 5 man bench, there is no room for Bernie.
2 Ditto.
3 Word.
http://tinyurl.com/ykslb7
Summary:
1) San Diego now the leader for Manny. Sux would prob get Peavy in return. Says they'd have the best rotation in baseball. I'd say they'd still have a ton of unknowns:
- Paps' high for innings pitched is ~120. And I think that was 2004.
- Wake, Beckett, and Tampon are maybe league average pitchers. Let's see them prove otherwise.
- I wanna see DM prove it in the majors.
- So Peavy could be the closest they have to a sure thing, and even then it's NL West to AL East. Good luck with that.
2) Tampon has been going around saying how great Nancy would be. Enjoy!
3) Tampon says that Manny told him he wants to be traded.
Otherwise, that report on Bernie is sad to me. He really thinks his role last year worked well. 3 Word indeed. Someone needs to sit him down and tell him it's over. Volunteers?
The choice of Craig Wilson at first seems so clear now, it shouldn't even be in doubt. Hillenbrand is a bad choice in every possible way.
We need to avoid having obvious weaknesses that make us especially vulnerable to the Sox (e.g., no decent lefty in the bullpen), but building a team just to beat the Sox is a recipe for disaster....
His point is probably, "you guys think this guys sucks since he plays in Japan and don't take his 109 HR's in 3 yrs seriously. But he didn't just mash the crap here. He hit the best in the league, too."
Honestly, is a team ultimately run by Sandy Alderson (with some help from Paul DePodesta) going to trade a 25-year-old pitcher for a 35-year-old OF, and put him in a park that suppresses offense? Oh, and the Padres will also pay Ramirez more in two years than Peavy is owed for the next four?
Meanwhile, the Padres have at least one, if not two holes in their rotation already and so they'll trade their ace, too?
Right.
And yeah, were that to happen, the Sox would be really really really really good for a long time pitching wise. Its pretty much the one outcome where I would hope Manny stays.
THe more I think about it, the more insane it seems to me, and the more I think its jsut pure Boston speculation and desire. Fans here would KILL the team. They are already despondant over their lack of offseason moves here (we are a fickle bunch) bu ttrading Peavy away wouldn't please them one bit...
Word is Manny might not want to go to San Diego anyway because he wouldn't want to hit in that park.
I hope the Sox trade Manny, but I don't see it happening. He still has to approve the deal, wants his $20 million option picked up and supposedly there aren't many places he actually wants to play.
But sadly Bernie only just "learned" to "play" RF last year, and I don't see him tying the 1B mitt to the end of his arm this off season. More importantly, Torre can't be trusted around platoon players--especially if they are proven veterans. In any case, Bernie-the-backup-1B makes sense only with a deep bench (that is, a team without the increasingly common 12 man pitching staff).
I was really hoping Bernie could scratch out some career counting numbers without hurting his overall averages too much (namely 300 HR). Maybe he signs a Wade Boggs contract for some team that plays in a hitters park, or maybe he should just retire. But I just don't see a spot for him on the Yankees next year.
Ramirez, 34, could cost $78 million over the next four years if, to get his consent for a trade, he insists that $20 million options for 2009 and 2010 are picked up. As for the Padres players who are potential candidates in a trade, the club's No. 1 chip appears to be reliever Scott Linebrink. Pitcher Jake Peavy's name surfaced in a Padres-Red Sox trade report this past summer, after which Towers said he told Peavy that the pitcher will be in San Diego as long as Towers is the GM. Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez attracted trade overtures from the Red Sox when he was with the Rangers.
Speculation here seems to be fairly consistant that Peavy isn't even an option, but who knows...
Zuleta may just be a great option. I'm still in favor if Wilson, but Zuleta's numbers in the minors are nutty. A, AA, AAA...
.290/.360/.550
Those numbers followed him to Japan, and he even produced them over 60 ABs for the Cubs. He had one bad stretch of about 130 ABs in his 2nd season with the Cubbies, and they banished him. It's not that Zuleta can't play in the States, it's that no one has even let him try despite consistently good numbers up the ladder. Doesn't Bill James say that minor league numbers are great predictors of future success?
I say talk to Zuleta's people. He made a million in Japan the last 2 seasons, but they wouldn't give him a raise or a multi-year because foreigners don't get that kind of deal for the most part here. He said, F-it, I'm going to try to go to the Majors. He can do it. The previous numbers show that it's in him....Japan and the US.
Remember Cecil Fielder? He was in the same situation. The Jays wouldn't play him so he went East and mashed. When he came back he got a fair shot and produced. His numbers other than homers, and RBIs aren't monsterous, but they were enough to throw up a regular .850-.900 OPS, which Zuleta may also be able to do on the cheap.
I learned my lesson last year about being scared of the Sux and their moves and watched as the same anxiety gripped others with the Belli trade. Just goes to show - Lord Epstein has no clothes. I'd be more surprised by them winning the division next year than Epstein getting fired after they fail to make the playoffs again.
BTW: Paps got hurt last year when he threw 68 IP. And I was wrong (forgot to add) - he threw 129 in 2004 ans 148 in 2005. Still, he's going to have to increase that 2005 total by more than 40% if he's going to pitch into September. As Verducci's last article shows, and Cliff has steadily reminded us of Wang, that's not likely to be a good recipe.
As far as I'm concerned, Boston is a third place team until they prove otherwise. Trading away a HOF hitter for Nancy Drew doesn't invoke fear in my heart. Nor signing Julio Lugo. Nor a Japanese maybe. They have at least ten games to make up. And none of those things gets them there. And they still need a closer - good luck finding someone with the arm and head to handle Boston. One blown save and the whole town blows.
Keep that Canyon going, its great stuff.
I just don't see the downside to Wilson though. We could likely get him cheap, and his pre-Yankees track record is decent (better than Hillenbrand's, anyway).
Hell, if we sign Wilson and he keeps playing like he did in 2006, even Phillips or Giambi would be preferable at first compared to what else is left.
Speaking of Giambi, is his defense really so bad that he cannot be used at first anymore? I assume yes, because I never see this floated as an option. But even if his defense is below average, any runs he costs the team may be outweighed by his dramatically improved offense when he plays first.
http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=6361
No word on whether Satoru Kanemura was overheard asking "Who is Julio Zuleta?"
http://tinyurl.com/yy5g7q
It's all speculation on his part but some interesting stuff. As we've said here, the one team we prob don't want the Sux dealing Manny is the Dodgers. They have enough in their system to give them a few arms.
Piazza looks like he's going to the A's. Says Zito will get $100mil and DM will cost the Sux $26mil for each of four years ($51.11 + $54).
I wonder whether the Yanks will trade for a first-baseman at some point. There are so many great-hitting first-basemen out there. Why should the Yanks be content with a Zuleta, Wilson, or Phillips?
-----
The Red Sox will hold out trying to lowball Dice-K [Matsuzaka]. And when I say hold out, I mean to the point where it becomes it was obvious just a blocking manuever to keep him from the Yankees. He wants $15Mx3Y, sox are offering 8Mperx4Y, "oceans apart". I've been told that if the Sox knew the Mets had the second highest bid ($38M), higher than the Yankees ($32M), they never would have bid $51.11 to win him. That comes from a very good source. Moreover, what I heard from the same source who is close to negotiations that what will happen is that Selig, Boras, and Seibu have a deal in place, where Boras pays Seibu $25 mil (1/2 the Red Sox bid) and he owns the rights to Matsuzaka, and puts him on the market BY X-MAS for the highest bidder, and Selig has signed off on it...
http://www.nj.com/weblogs/yankees/
----
Yeah, "trusted and informed sources" whatever, this is either the result of a very creative imagination or buinsess as usual for the Eviler Empire. I'm not completely sure which. Yeeesh!
Seriously though, why would Seibu accept that when they know the Mets bid $38 million and the Yankees boid $30?
Maybe the Yankees should sign Hillenbrand and Zuleta (and Karim Garcia for that matter). If they don't make the Yankees out of Spring Training, Cashman could just work out a deal with Vince McMahon. Zuleta's ability to "rain punches down while other players try to restrain him" 27 could be an asset in the WWE.
34 Boras is going to do fine no matter what the outcome. He'll represent Matsuzaka next year if nothing happens this year, right? And the salary will be higher so Boras will make more money. And his rep will be even better, 'tougher'.
38 Offered, or asked?
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/11/30/sox_nixon_in_07/
The rest of that article is interesting -- arbitration for Nixon??? So, between Drew and Nixon you probably get 162 games, and you only end up paying them together about $16 million, and you use two roster spots. That seems reasonable. Not.
But are they planning to sign-and-trade? What the market for an overpaid Nixon?
I'm not sure why this guy is framing this like it's mind blowing insider information.
(Not BklynBmr, the guy in BklynBmr's quote)
Here's Zuleta stats in Japan. The Homeruns numbers in japan doesn't translate here in the Us. So, I think his homeruns will be cut in half and He will hits between 10-15 homerun.
Zuleta's a unrestricted free agent and has good numbers against Matsuzaka. He will be cheap and cost less than Signing Hillenbrand. The Yankees would not forfeit and lose any draft picks by signing him. I'm hoping the Yankees would sign him to minor league deal and give it try.
Andy's Phillips proves last year He's not everday player but bench guy. I agree with you, Phillips is much better fielder but He's can't hit for average and strikeouts a ton.
I think Zuleta's much better patient hitter than Hillenbrand. He won't chased pitches out of strikezone
http://www.nj.com/weblogs/yankees/
Thursday, November 30, 2006
The Matsu-saga continues
Very interesting e-mail from a rather informed and reasonable source came in:
Okay guys, here's what I've heard through the grapevine on this...The Red Sox will hold out trying to lowball Dice-K [Matsuzaka]. And when I say hold out, I mean to the point where it becomes it was obvious just a blocking manuever to keep him from the Yankees. He wants $15Mx3Y, sox are offering 8Mperx4Y, "oceans apart". I've been told that if the Sox knew the Mets had the second highest bid ($38M), higher than the Yankees ($32M), they never would have bid $51.11 to win him. That comes from a very good source. Moreover, what I heard from the same source who is close to negotiations that what will happen is that Selig, Boras, and Seibu have a deal in place, where Boras pays Seibu $25 mil (1/2 the Red Sox bid) and he owns the rights to Matsuzaka, and puts him on the market BY X-MAS for the highest bidder, and Selig has signed off on it...
So, take that for what it's worth. Probably some truth to it, and probably some game-of-telephone style exaggerations. If Matsuzaka goes on the market, though, expect the Yanks to be huge players. But man, what an intriguing, juicy story. MLB.com's Fred Claire says the competition for the far east market is just adding a new element to the Yankee-Sox rivalry.
I'm glad you asked. Richard Sandomir at NY Times broke it down about the origin of the posting system, which was supposed to avoid that very type of situation.
http://tinyurl.com/y2acs3
Ironically, it was MLB that inspired the posting system, no doubt in reaction to Yankees' "ingenuity" (money + will x Steinbrenner = No Comp!), but as usual teams and agents both decided to tuck-and-roll. I wondered aloud yesterday why the Yankees didn't do things this way all along, now I know why.
I wonder if Cash is sticking with the temporary Phillips, Zuleta, and Wilson options because one of the Duncans (more Eric) or Sardinha (if moved his lack of power would fit better at 1B) could be ready later in the year or in 2008.
I hope all this money being tossed around will have the Yanks set up an Eastern Academy to recruit Asian high school players and sign them as free agents. Unless there's some sort of draft that prevents it?
Now if that report is true, and the Yanks are bidding after X-mas - ugh.
I still don't understand why the bidding process is closed for posting. Couldn't Seibu make more money (and the competition for rights be fairer) if they could just directly negotiate with teams for the signing rights. As someone pointed out awhile ago, this is what happens in soccer. Teams A and B negotiate with C for the rights to a player, and then the winning team has to negotiate a contract with said player. Seems more win/win to me.
Not to say they shouldn't, and not to say there's anything wrong with wanting to compete in your home (hello Tom Glavine).
It would also be tricky, I imagine, setting one up in, say, South Korea or Taiwan, given from what I understand are the mandatory military obligations. You're not competing with just other clubs, you're also competing directly with other governments, which certainly would not be happy having their own "talent pool" drained in such a manner. I might be wrong there and feel free to correct me, but the operative word would be: "complicated."
Toronto
Baltimore
Cincinnati (maybe)
Chicago Cubs (more than Cincy, but maybe)
both LA teams
both NY teams
With Tampa Bay as a dark horse, only because pairing him with Kasmir would give them instant credibility as a contender.
Scott Procter
Kei Igawa
Humberto Sanchez
Melky Cabrera
for Dontrelle?
Setting Up a 2008 Rotation of
Dontrelle Willis
Chin-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Philip Hughes
and that other guy that's always hurt/ Ian Kennedy, prospect,etc.......
Boras is as much the X Factor as we expect him to be. If there's nothing to it, expect Boras to blow the rumor right out the water quick, because he won't give up any kind of leverage whatsoever. Let's watch...
-Melky is young and cheap, a very good 4th OF for this team as currently constructed.
-Proctor, assuming Torre didn't burn him out last year, is a go-to guy. (If he is burned out, then by all means, trade him while you can)
-You don't pay $26M to negotiate with a guy, then trade him. And Florida wouldn't even want to pay him whatever his contract winds up being.
-I'm not convinced Dontrelle will hold up long-term. He looks like one of those guys that pitches well in spite of himself, and I have a bad feeling the wheels will come off at some point. And I hope it's not the season after the Yanks ink him to a longterm deal.
No, I would not do it. Kei is an unknown factor for one. Proctor is a valuable cog in the bullpen, which has been the Achilles Heel for the Yanks lately. Melky is the best defensive replacement on the Yanks, but his CF is still open for question, for a team like Florida. Hughes is still at least a half-season away. The only reason Florida would make a deal with the Yanks is for Sanchez and Hughes + cash, in my opinion. Not a safe bet either way.
Dunn's talent are more than enough to overcome his shortcomings (Ks, another lefty, blah with the glove in LF) and if the Yanks can get him for a reasonable price - say one of the power relievers gotten from the Tigers and Ian Kennedy - I say do it.
All this reminds me of a famous Bear Bryant quote. Someone asked the Bear for ten bucks to help cover the cost of a sportswriter's funeral. His response: "Here's a twenty, bury two."
No, I don't either. But you were being rational and I was calling for blood, but I don't remember what it was about. Probably over Boston and DM. At any rate, it was all about nothing; a joke that missed it's mark and flew to oblivion, where I sometimes freelance.
Well, in case anyone's lurking about, Showalter's signed on as a special advisor to the Indians (good luck with that, both of ya) and Tom Glavine has reportedly resigned with the Mets. Good for youse. I'm biding my time to see when the Ded Sox drop the ball on Matsuzaka before I say anything else, if there's any truth to the previous proceedings.
Okay, I'll check back in a little while.
32Whoever wrote that is probably at the head of their creative writing class.
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