Baseball Toaster Bronx Banter
2006-11-28 05:23
by Alex Belth

Our man Pete Abraham is back and has the highlights of yesterday's Yankee action. It'll be fun following the Baseball Winter Meetings next week via The Lo-Hud. Man, it seems as if Manny Ramirez might actually be traded this year. Go figure. With Rich Aurillia reportedly close to signing a deal with the San Francisco Giants, Andy Phillips may get another shot at backing up Giambi, after all. Elsewhere, according to the Globe and Mail, Greg Zaun will re-sign with the Blue Jays. Drag.

Comments (110)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2006-11-28 06:07:50
1.   mikeplugh
Peter is great. Glad he's with us. On the baseball notes:

1. Phillips is okay. Wilson is better. Sign Wilson.
2. Manny being traded makes me smile. Go to COH.
3. Zaun is a drag. Carlos Maldonado.

2006-11-28 06:13:35
2.   jakewoods
Zaun would have made a nice addition as a backup catcher.

Now they'll have their choice of Molina or Barajas.

2006-11-28 06:18:43
3.   mehmattski
Career ML Stats
Andy Phillips (29): 294 AB .228/.296/.361 9 HR 70 K 16 BB .870 ZR/.988 FPct/-1 FRAR

Daryle Ward (31): 2022 AB .262/.314/.445 83 HR 375 K 154 BB .864 ZR/.993 FPct/+2 FRAR

Aaron Guiel (34): 970 AB 246/.322/.414 35 HR 218 K 83 BB (only 68 innings at 1B)

Craig Wilson (30): 1952 AB .265/.354/.480 98 HR 618 K 190 BB .842 ZR/.993 FPct/-2 FRAR

I think I'm gonna agree with NoMass for once: Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson...

2006-11-28 06:33:30
4.   rbj
Overpay (by $1-2 mil) for Zaun if necessary. Tell him he's got a better chance for a ring with NY than with Toronto.
2006-11-28 07:01:34
5.   Shaun P
Crud. Zaun would have made a nice backup catcher, and allowed for using Jorge at 1B, as Cliff suggested.

3 I know the difference between leagues hasn't always been as stark as it was last year. But - given that there is a difference, I was curious as to the translated numbers for those guys. Here's what BP's Davenport translations say:

Phillips - 281 AB, .224/.271/.402, 10 HR, 66 K, 18 BB

Ward - 1964 AB, .259/.311/.440, 85 HR, 349 K, 142 BB

Guiel - 933 AB, .244/.327/.420, 40 HR, 202 K, 86 BB

Wilson - 1894 AB, .265/.353/.486, 98 HR, 580 K, 181 BB

So, I guess the league difference doesn't matter that much. Wilson does seem like the way to go.

2006-11-28 07:08:51
6.   Jim Dean
1 Manny gettting traded makes me smile too. I can't wait for the Big Papi to have a Big Pouting because of his lack of protection, oh, and his severely undervalued contract. Shoot, if he was going to compain with Manny behind him, imagine the fun that will ensue without Manny!

2 No thanks on either. I'd rather see Piazza's creaky knees or even Wil Nieves before I see the OPP of Molina or Barajas in pinstripes.

3 After Piazza for C/1B and 100 games, I agree:

Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson, Craig Wilson

4 The Jays can offer the starting spot which I think he'd prefer over a bit more cahs. {PLus, if that report is accurate, I can't see the point of paying 10 million for two years of 35 yo Zaun.

2006-11-28 07:14:31
7.   pistolpete
2 I'm on the Barajas Bandwagon - go get him!
2006-11-28 07:18:57
8.   Jim Dean
It seems Darth Larry is over in Japan working the Lions to get them to reduce what they take for the bid:

It's a good way to go - seal the bid with something huge, get Seibu to accept less, then spin the extra into the DM deal.

But the fact that they sent him to Japan and he's already posturing about a "fair and comprehensive" deal is very interesting - like they're all ready to start fighting Boras. I have yet to see an instance of Boras not getting what he wants. It should be fun - what two weeks to go?

2006-11-28 07:45:21
9.   jonnystrongleg
8 Thanks for that link. If the Red Sox are able to re-work their bid amount after the fact, the Yankees should file a grievance or take some kind of legal action to expose, and perhaps prevent this preposterous scenario.

If the Red Sox end up paying less than 51.1 million, than the "posting process" is reduced to a ridiculous exercise of who can write down the highest number on a piece of paper. It makes it even more galling that the Yanks didn't win if what you end up actually paying has no relation to the winning post.

2006-11-28 07:52:55
10.   jkay
Craig Wilson is not coming back. Torre left him off the playoff roster in favor of Andy Phillips. Joe likes to have his pets on the bench and this is one of them.
2006-11-28 07:57:37
11.   jakewoods
Career stats for Wilson???

Did you not watch him play the final three months??

Apparently not.

And Jorgie play 1b??? I think Torre, Cashman and the infielders would rather sit for root canal.

2006-11-28 07:59:26
12.   David
9 I agree that the Yanks should file a grievance if Seibu gives back some of the $51m. They should also file a grievance if the Sox don't come to terms with the pitcher.
2006-11-28 08:06:52
13.   jakewoods
Seibu cant give the money back or rework it to make things easier for Boston.

Every cent of the 51+ mill has to be accounted for and paid to Seibu.

They shouldnt try to play hardball with Boras. Hes better at it then they are.

2006-11-28 08:07:40
14.   Jim Dean
11 Size matter as in the sample. Just as in you wouldn't give Wilson 6 million a year if he had a huge three month, he should be discounted because he had a bad three months. He's a better option than anyone else the Yanks have under their control and better than any other FA 1B out there. However, if it's Torre's pet 10 issue, then there's probably not much that can be done. However if Wilson can be had cheaply (2 years at 6 million or so), he should be signed and given time to at least compete with Phillips. But I also think they kept Andy in the post-season because of his defense. What you gain in defense you lose in offense, even as I'm not sure the converse is true.

9 12 I think it's legit, but only so long as they still end up paying Seibu the highest bid - like 41 million. After that I agree, though I'm not sure much can be done as it assumes that all of the final figures become public AND Selig is willing to do something about it.

2006-11-28 08:11:26
15.   Raf
11 1952AB > 104AB. Always.

As for Posada, he can't really be much worse than Giambi. And while he doesn't have much, he has some experience @ 1b. No reason he couldn't play there on his days off.

2006-11-28 08:12:13
16.   pistolpete
12 "They should also file a grievance if the Sox don't come to terms with the pitcher."

Why on earth would they do that? Wouldn't it be a good thing for the Yanks if they can't work out a deal?

2006-11-28 08:13:04
17.   Jim Dean
13 Who says? The Red Sox can agree to pay Seibu 51 mil and Seibu can agree to pay DM a 10 million "sayonara" bonus. It's the same money - but worked to get around the rules.

But that involves all three parties coordinating the agreements - the posting fee, the contract, and a "bonus". The Sox are very much looking at the bottomline, and each aspect affects the others. And Darth Larry is the guy to hammer something out that everyone can agree on. Good thing Boras is such a pain, er, good at his job.

Of all the parties involved it's to Seibu's benefit to get the deal done. If they have a choice between 41 mil or nothing, I'm pretty sure they ch-ch-choose the former.

2006-11-28 08:40:02
18.   thirtythr33
Craig Wilson does not deserve to wear pinstripes ever again
2006-11-28 08:40:22
19.   JL25and3
16 IIRC, the Yankees weren't the second-highest bidders - the Mets were, no? So if the Red Sox don't sign him, it wouldn't hel pthe Yankees to grieve it. Just let him go back home.

However, I'll be very surprised if the Sox don't sign him.

Trade Manny. Please trade Manny.

2006-11-28 08:58:56
20.   Peter
The Soxaholix is speculating that the Red Sox may know more about Manny's "phantom injury" than they're letting on. Of course it's all speculation, but it gives a new angle to the trade rumors. I can't imagine the trade going through without any pending physicals, but then again, we've seen anything is possible.
2006-11-28 09:00:54
21.   RIYank
It may be legal, or whatever, for Seibu to kick back money in the form of a bonus to Matsuzaka, but it shouldn't be. It turns the posting process into a farce. Why shouldn't a team bid a billion dollars, then after they've won negotiate with the Japanese team for a reasonable sum? If there's anything Selig can do to prevent Lucchino from pulling this trick, I bet he'll try.
2006-11-28 09:05:57
22.   Chyll Will
18 "Deserve's got nuthin' to do with it..." - William Munny
2006-11-28 09:09:17
23.   pistolpete
19 I was under the impression that if no deal was struck in the time allotted, DMat had to go back and play for the Lions for another year. Seibu would lose the 51 million from the Sox, and he would simply enter the free agent pool for 2008.

Looks like Boston thought, in the back of their minds, that Boras would somehow lighten up on the actual MLB contract because the posting bid was so high.

2006-11-28 09:09:21
24.   mehmattski
21 The Mariners did the same thing with Ichiro, IIRC from our discussions a few weeks ago. The bid was $13 million, but I remember reading that the Orix Blue Wave only ever received about a half of that.
2006-11-28 09:19:58
25.   JL25and3
21 If Selig finds out about it, he can definitely do something to prevent it. The agreement gives him pretty complete authority to decide what constitutes shady dealing and what the penalty should be.
2006-11-28 09:21:22
26.   thirtythr33
22 LOVE that movie. good call.
2006-11-28 09:23:29
27.   Jim Dean
22 I don't think there's anything "wrong" about it - it's a business. But rather than have Japanese teams flooded with interest, this is a way to limit interest to one team at a time. They bid for that right. What happens afterwards is anybody's guess. If the Yanks were doing the same thing we'd be applauding them for their business sense.

I don't think Selig would care much if they pay a significant chunk of the original bid, the player gets a fair contract, and comes to the MLB. That would show the posting process "works". I see Selig more likely to get involved if a deal doesn't get done than if one does get done.

I really do wonder if all this hoopla is just silly, just like the Sux fleecing poor Florida last year in the Beckett deal. WOuldn't it be a hoot if DM goes 16-10 with a 4.20 ERA and 160 K's in 200 innings with 100 BB.

2006-11-28 09:24:37
28.   RIYank
25 I don't think there's any question about Selig finding out. It's in the Boston Herald

2006-11-28 09:26:00
29.   thirtythr33
27 in all likelihood, don't you think DM will have a year along those lines?
2006-11-28 09:27:17
30.   Shaun P
25 Except that we've already seen Selig get involved in Red Sox-Japan shenanigans - the whole "Kevin Millar is going to Japa . . . oops I mean the Red Sox" thing. This does not give me much hope for Bud to do the right thing.

20 I don't think the Dodgers would get taken in by the Sox if Manny's 'phantom injury' is really bad - I hope. Especially not if they give up LaRoche or (shudder) James Looney.

That is what worries me about the Sox trading Manny, if they get back a Grade A-close-to-the-majors blue chip prospect to fill an organizational hole. Ned Colleti was dumb enough to sign Pierre to that contract, so he's dumb enough to do anything. The thought of Matt Kemp or James Looney in a Sox uniform for the next 6 years, in that ballpark, at cheap salary, scares me.

I wonder what the Dodgers Thoughts folks think of a Manny deal? McCourt does seem to have a fetish for former Boston players.

2006-11-28 09:33:19
31.   Chyll Will
25, 28 Someone alert Kofi Annan!
2006-11-28 09:33:56
32.   Jim Dean
24 But did they spin the other 6 million into Ichiro's deal? That's I think the question being discussed.

Based on that I should amend what I said about Seibu. It seems they can point to the other bids, and Selig, if the Sux try to strong arm them into taking less than 30 million. Indeed, if DM doesn't sign they have just as much of a PR mess and can come clean with whatever attempts were made, esp to Selig. That's where the bad faith clause comes into play - as a way to save a posting in which the negotiations go bad. The next team could then get the rights to negotiate. That's where the 30 day window also seems necessary.

So it seems that Bahstan is on the hook for 35-40 million in a posting fee, then the contract with Boras. So maybe they end up paying 90 million for four years. Still way over priced, but they find a way to avoid the luxury tax. That's good business but it still doesn't mean good baseball. The Manny, Nacy, and Lugo rumors show how far they are from that.

2006-11-28 09:34:58
33.   RIYank
Jim 25, the point is that if re-negotiating post hoc is allowed, then, as jonnystrongleg 9 put it, 'the "posting process" is reduced to a ridiculous exercise of who can write down the highest number on a piece of paper.' Surely it's in Selig's interest to prevent that, if he can.
2006-11-28 09:36:25
34.   Chyll Will
31 Oops, I guess he already knows 27... >;)
2006-11-28 09:39:13
35.   Jim Dean
29 I think that's exactly what he'll do - esp more walks and fewer K's and that will lead to an average year. But it seems few folks agree.

30 I agree - that's the worst case scenario. The word is Manny doesn't want to go to the NL. And he has the right to veto.

2006-11-28 09:45:09
36.   Jim Dean
33 It's not perfect, but it has worked so far. They prob change it. Even still, my bet is the Sox will still have to pay around what the highest bid was, then sign the deal - any way you add it, that's still alot of risk.

But heck, maybe they realized the "write the highest number down" could work, and their plan is as it's worked. Still, they have to work out compensation with Seibu and Boras. And that's going to be 70-80 million for 3 to 4 years. I'm glad it's not the Yankees.

2006-11-28 09:56:55
37.   Chyll Will
33 I don't exactly understand why he couldn't, though I can speculate why he wouldn't. His biggest weapon would have to be the "best interest of baseball" precedent, seeing that not all teams could operate on the same scale as Boston (never mind NY) if this kind of back-alley negotiating is allowed. It's not the same as scouting an international free-agent who is free to sign with whom he chooses.

The posting process is obviously there for the interest of the Japanese team, so as to recoup their loss of servicable players and not not let the team or the league fold. The only logical interest they would have in the American side of the process is to hope that the player and the MMLB team make a deal, and perhaps they would bend their own demands to ensure that. However, precedent has to be established on this side for the league as a whole and not for the interest of saving face for a particular team or the Japanese league.

If what people suspect is happening is allowed, I give again that there should be no reason for a large-market team not to establish a base in Japan and groom players on their own; even to negotiate development deals with teams in financial hardship or in the same manner as Triple-A teams. I'm saying, if one is possible, anything is possible.

2006-11-28 10:16:35
38.   Chyll Will
Intermission? Lunch break?
2006-11-28 10:36:31
39.   ric
"Manny gettting traded makes me smile too. I can't wait for the Big Papi to have a Big Pouting because of his lack of protection"

i dont know if i buy this (very prevalent) argument... in 2004, Bonds had no protection and was walked 232 times (but he still managed to hit 45 hrs for a whopping 1.422 OPS) also, i'd have to research it, but ive heard that the intentional walk thing often backfires and casues more runs than it prevents. who knows though, ortiz is not bonds.

2006-11-28 10:57:51
40.   David
16 if the Sox don't come to terms, I would argue that their $51.1 was not a good faith bid. I would ask the Commissioner to re-open negotiations with the team that made the 2nd highest bid.
2006-11-28 10:59:11
41.   rbj
The revised edition of Bill James' Historical Abstract has a study where he surrounded Babe with a bunch of scrubs, the upshot was that walking Babe all the time hurt more than pitching to him.
2006-11-28 11:01:59
42.   RIYank
39 There was a brief discussion of this at Baseball Musings recently. Pinto speculated that having a man on first is the best 'protection' for a batter, since even managers realize that you're doing a team a big favor by walking a runner into scoring position. A commenter recalled a small study looking at Dale Murphy and whether he was protected by Bob Horner and concluding that he wasn't.
2006-11-28 11:04:32
43.   RIYank
40 If that policy were generally known, it would give Boras enormous leverage.
2006-11-28 11:10:58
44.   jakewoods
Id rather take my chances with JD Drew, Mike Lowell or Varitek than Ortiz with a man on and a base open and the game on the line.

Let the stat freaks figure that one out.

2006-11-28 11:17:27
45.   RIYank
44 Well, J D Drew will hit a double or homer once in every ten times at bat; if you walk Ortiz, Drew will knock him in 1/10 of the time. If you pitch to Ortiz, he homers once every 16 times.
There are times when it makes sense, but on average you'll be giving away runs and games if you mindlessly walk Ortiz to pitch to Drew.

Hey, does this mean I'm a stat freak?

2006-11-28 11:23:11
46.   jakewoods
Yea, you would be a stat freak if you would rather face Ortiz than JD Drew. That's a great decision to make.

You're also a stat freak if you sign JD Drew to a 15 mill a yr deal.

But I'm glad theres people like that in charge in Boston now.

2006-11-28 11:26:23
47.   kylepetterson
"The Hanshin Tigers have accepted the top bid -- believed to be about $25 million -- for left-handed pitcher Kei Igawa, has learned.

Major League Baseball is expected to announce Tuesday night which team won the bidding."

2006-11-28 11:29:02
48.   kylepetterson
47 My sources tell me the winning team is the Montreal Canadiens. Of course, that's what my sources always say. And they are always wrong.
2006-11-28 11:29:34
49.   RIYank
I'd rather face Ortiz with one man on than Drew with two, yeah. I don't like giving away runs to the Red Sox, so I wouldn't walk Ortiz unless there were some special aspect of the situation that called for it.

I don't get the part about stat freaks signing J D Drew to $15/year. I'm pretty sure you'll find that it's the stat freaks who manage to avoid paying huge salaries, so I think you've got it entirely backwards.

2006-11-28 11:55:45
50.   Raf
45 No, it means you have common sense.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2006-11-28 12:13:30
51.   jakewoods
I guess some guys here have actually never watched Ortiz or Drew play.

It takes a little more than actually reading a stat sheet to see how guys play and what to do during a game.

But if you insist on pitching to Ortiz and not facing Drew you're out of your mind.

I think its pretty clear that every pitcher in the AL will do backflips once Manny is gone and they can attack Ortiz and see Drew in the on deck circle.

2006-11-28 12:37:05
52.   RIYank
51 I've hardly ever seen Drew play, but I've seen Ortiz many, many times. I can't see his magical aura, however, so you probably have a big advantage there.

On average, over time, your approach will give up more runs. Watching the awesome majesty that is Ortiz won't change that plain fact. His majestical aura, it turns out, doesn't produce runs.

So, it comes down to this:
If your goal is aura-avoidance, then by all means, walk Papi every time. If your goal is to keep the other team from scoring runs, then pitch to him unless the game is tied in the bottom of the ninth, or some other special situation in which the extra runs (the ones the Magical Aura method gives the Red Sox) don't matter.

2006-11-28 12:47:33
53.   kylepetterson
Cliff, Alex? Can we get RIYank an award for that post (52)? hilarious.
2006-11-28 12:49:18
54.   kylepetterson
"If your goal is aura-avoidance"

That has always been my goal.

2006-11-28 12:50:05
55.   JL25and3
51 "I guess some guys here have actually never watched Ortiz or Drew play. It takes a little more than actually reading a stat sheet to see how guys play and what to do during a game."

I agree with you up to a point. You're right, watching someone play can tell you things that stats can't. But there are two conditions:

(1) You have to watch the player with clear eyes, without all the preconceived notions of clutchitudity and such; and

(2) You have to watch him all the time. I've seen Derek Jeter play all the time for 11 years, and I don't need advance metrics to tell me about his fielding. On the other hand, I only see Ortiz play 19 times a year, which makes it just anecdotal information. At that point, I'm not going to trust my eyes over the stats.

2006-11-28 12:51:23
56.   Chyll Will
52 "If your goal is aura-avoidance, then by all means, walk Papi every time."

Wow. Most people with a "majestical aura" make others run. Not Papi. He makes people walk. Aye-yi-yi, what a guy.

2006-11-28 12:54:15
57.   Chyll Will
BTW, is the Magical Aura related in any way to the Immaculate Conception?
2006-11-28 13:06:31
58.   underdog
30 Dodger fan here - Colletti's made some questionable moves but he's also made some good ones (and the Wolf signing should be included among them); and fortunately has shown an unwillingness to part with their blue chip prospects (though he did trade a couple of formerly blue chippers to the DRays last year, but those were players who had been very much surpassed) and def. seems reluctant to trade Loney (note: one "O") or Billingsley or the like. You could read DodgerThoughts for more on how fans feel about the possibility of Manny - seems people are mixed, would love to add his power, which LA needs, but not his shoddy defense or attitude, and not at the expense of too many top prospects. Seems management feels the same way, but yeah, you never know. I wouldn't be shocked to see LaRoche traded, but would be about the other guys you mentioned.

I think Manny's gonna stay in the AL, where he's comfy and where his defense should be less of a liability. As the cameraman said in "Tootsie," "How do you feel about Cleveland?"

My fingers are crossed LA doesn't trade Loney to anyone. The guy can hit and rake with the best of them.

2006-11-28 13:07:28
59.   Jim Dean
52 Nicely handled, indeed.
2006-11-28 13:12:37
60.   Jim Dean
68 The Wolf money isn't questionable?

As for Manny, the Shef trade seems like what most teams are going on. But that seems way undervalue for Manny, esp since Shef "required" the extension. In any case, I can deal with one A prospect and two B's. LaRoche seems like he fits the A bill. Who's the B prospects you're willing to part with?

2006-11-28 13:13:31
61.   Shaun P
58 Thank you for the perspective, and for setting me straight on how to spell Loney's name.

52 Very well said.

I'd also like to point out that I have watched many baseball games, but I can't remember everything that happens, so its nice to have stats. Which, after all, are nothing more than a record of what happened in the games.

2006-11-28 13:17:20
62.   mehmattski
51 Yeah, you said it way better and way more sardonically than I was about to. Good work.

Apropos of nothing (nod to Deadspinners), I just though y'all would enjoy this story: So I've had this computer for three years, and it's had electrical problems, and is currently being fixed for the third time in a year. The warranty runs out at the end of the year, so I've decide to Ebay the old computer and buy a new one. And I rationalized my plan to my father (a Yankees fan as well) with the following analogy:

It's kind of like the Yankees with Jaret Wright. They knew they could pick up his option (stick with current finicky computer), but he's likely to explode any minute, and then they'd be out a pitcher. They could decline his option (just buy a new computer), but that would cost money, and they'd be out a pitcher. So instead, they offered to pay the difference between the salary (new computer) and the buyout (worth of the old computer)... and got something in trade.

Then he understood. Unfortunately the analogy breaks down in assuming that Chris Britton is a better computer than Jaret Wright. But I got my point across.

2006-11-28 13:17:54
63.   kylepetterson
Speaking of "majestical aura's", 60 Jimmy's quoting posts that haven't even happened yet. It's like a portal to the future. Or at least a sleeping bag from it.
2006-11-28 13:19:03
64.   mehmattski
Grr, I meant 52 of course

Also, Jim Dean 60 has apparently joined the ranks of being able to see the future.

Adventures in cross-referencing...

2006-11-28 13:28:05
65.   Jim Dean
61 Nicely said as well. I don't understand the distrust of "stats" because they are as you say "a record of what happened in the games." Indeed, the best cases to use "stats" are where there is a large number of games - it's like watching all of those games at once. The worst use of stats is when there's a small nuber of games (Craig Wilson as a Yankee). It's the difference between watching a season full of games and one game.

I suppose not wanting to use stats has become more of a paradigm shift in which folks think things are being snuck past them. It's probably just that the stats take extra work and the "statheads" have been more confrontational than mentoring. Indeed, it's not too surprising that the one "advanced" stat that has entered (more) common use is OPS - because it's so easy to understand. Of course, now the sabr community has moved away from it. And Eqa, while easy to understand, is not so easy to calculate and so won't be seen in newspapers anytime soon.

2006-11-28 13:29:40
66.   Jim Dean
64 One of my gifts but it requires certain substances and claims of religious freedom.

I meant 58.

2006-11-28 13:35:39
67.   kylepetterson
Sorry guys, but I have to do it.
2006-11-28 13:35:47
68.   kylepetterson
The Wolf money isn't questionable
2006-11-28 13:37:51
69.   Jim Dean
62 Ah, but do you disclose to the bidder the computer's history?

And is the winning bidder an expert in cajoling life out of finicky computers?

Wouldn't a better analogy be: Trading your computer with a scary electrical problems but much better potential to go the long haul for a machine for only short-term solutions but less likely to go haywire?

2006-11-28 13:38:01
70.   mehmattski
Good. Otherwise the space-time continuum would have ruptured, swallowing us all.

Schrodinger's cat is not dead.

2006-11-28 13:40:32
71.   mehmattski
69 Yes, I suppose some sort of combination of the Wright and Sheffield deals would be more appropriate... preventing myself from being without a computer (or pitcher) by taking a moderate hit in the money column and trading for prospects (plural). I should hope my new computer will be more Humberto anchez-ike.
2006-11-28 13:41:43
72.   Raf
65 "It's probably just that the stats take extra work and the "statheads" have been more confrontational than mentoring"

Really? I would think it's the other way around. A lot of people still are a bit afraid of stats; I've gotten into enough bar arguments to know that. I've tried explaining my position and what these stats mean, but if people aren't willing to listen, what's the point.

How many times have you made a point using stats and logic only to be told "I saw the games, the stats don't tell the whole story?"

2006-11-28 13:43:32
73.   bobtaco
Stroll over to WasWatching and see what Manny has done against the Yankees in his career with the Sox.

It's broken down every which way.

It will be good if he leaves. I doubt Drew can match that record.

2006-11-28 13:45:46
74.   underdog
60 "The Wolf money isn't questionable?"

Most salaries in baseball today are nauseating to think about, but no, all things being relative, and with 9 million the new 3 million, 7.5 for a low-risk one year for a pretty good starter is not questionable at all imho.

2006-11-28 13:48:57
75.   Jim Dean
72 It's a good point, and you're right. I'm not sure though. Neyer was really dogmatic for a while there. The Lewis book hit hard. I'm not sure - strong opinions never help. I think if anything the interent has revolutionized the way I follow the sport. It make take a generation or two before the vast majority sees it the same way. I know I can't cite stats to my Dad - he doesn't care and he'll have his opinions either way.
2006-11-28 13:52:39
76.   Jim Dean
74 I agree on the logic - just not the analysis of Wolf. He might be above average, but there's also a good chance he's below average. The mean is average and for a bit more (and another year or two, granted) you get a truly average pitcher like Lilly. The risk on Wolf seems like it should drive the price a bit lower, IMHO.
2006-11-28 13:56:38
77.   underdog
76 Eh, maybe, though I'd take my chance on him over Brett Tomko, f'rinstance. ;-) But I do think there's a better chance he'll be above average, because when healthy he's got good stuff. He really looked a lot better late in the year after more fully recovering from surgery and scouts think he'll be even better this year. So again, I'll takes me chances with him.
2006-11-28 14:29:51
78.   Dimelo
Just heard on YES/WFAN that the Yanks are the winning biddder for the crappier Japenese pitcher. Great.
2006-11-28 14:30:55
79.   atc
78 with a bid of around $25m
2006-11-28 14:36:27
80.   mikeplugh
52 I smell sponsorship deal. How this:

The "Bronx Banter/Fire Joe Morgan Award for Outstanding Achievement in the Field of Excellence in Biting Wit"

It can be given during the 7th inning stretch of the home opener, soon to be known as the "Jiffy Lube/McDonalds/Planter's Peanuts/ Wal Mart/Yomiuri Shimbun/Taco Bell 7th Inning Stretchapaloooooooooooooooo-za"

2006-11-28 14:37:29
81.   mikeplugh
Doh! Sorry about stretching the field. I didn't think all my sponsorship /'s would do that. BB Faux Pas Award for Stupidity in Posting Long Strings of Nonsense.


2006-11-28 14:54:27
82.   wsporter
Back on 11/9 Mike P said this about Igawa:

"Igawa is a fine pitcher with a shot at being a very good #2 or #3 pitcher in the Majors. If the Yankees are unsuccessful in their bid for Matsuzaka, or even if they are successful for that matter, they should look into acquiring Igawa at a far lower price. He's going to come in under the radar thanks to the Daisuke hype. He's also a far better option than Jeff Suppan or Jaret Wright. Keep your eyes peeled."

That sounds good to me. A #3 seems to be what's left at best on the MLB FA list (i.e.) Zito and if he's looking for $90 million over 6 I'd say we'll get a bargain even with a $25 million bid. That is really crazy money just for the right to have a cup of coffee with his agent. Glad it's not mine.

2006-11-28 14:59:58
83.   Jeteupthemiddle
A bargain, I think, would have been a $15M bid and a contract worth $21M over 3 years.

$25M is silly.

2006-11-28 15:46:38
84.   Zack
Nah, 25 mill to get his rights, then, say 6 mill over 5 years, thats another 30 55 million for 5 years of a #3-4 LEFTY, heck, thats just a little more than the Sox paid to TALK to DM...i call that a bargain..
2006-11-28 15:48:18
85.   David
One nice thing about signing Ogawa: it's now more likely that the Yanks will keep Melky, rather than trade him for a SP.
2006-11-28 16:28:37
86.   rabid stan
I blew up when I heard about the Igawa bid, I'm calmer now, but I can't get on board. Odds are, Cash tries to wheedle this bid down just like the Sox are reportedly trying to do with Matsuzaka. Even though it's our guy, it's still dirty pool and sets a bad precedent for MLB/Japanese league deals.

84 3-4 is optimistic. He's Ted Lilly, at best. A 4/5 guy to shove Pavano out the door, or stand in the way of Phil Hughes.

2006-11-28 16:32:43
87.   jakewoods
I think I'd prefer Lilly for the same money.

But lets be fair here. No one will stand in the way of Hughes.

2006-11-28 16:38:22
88.   rabid stan

I see five pitchers, if this isn't a prelude to dealing Pavano. Suppose Igawa ends up making 5-7 million a year, I don't see how you would sit him. If the Yanks don't expect to start him in the majors immediately, why bid $25 mill?

To me, this suggests the front office is at least considering keeping Hughes in AAA next year, perhaps with only a late callup.

2006-11-28 17:14:44
89.   jakewoods
The plan is to callup Hughes mid season. Like what Boston did with Lester. Because hes being kept on strict pitch counts. You dont want him pitching in the bigs in April. Hes better off in Scranton on his pitch count and come up ready to go in June/July.

Verducci has a great article on that exact thing on today

2006-11-28 17:28:21
90.   rabid stan
Well that's the idea I had, but with Igawa (not Rasner or somebody else who can be moved around) in the mix they better get rid of Pavano, or it will take an injury to make room for Hughes in June or July.

A full, or even 2/3 of a season in AAA would be a waste for Hughes, unless he has some problem progressing. And yet, it looks like we could get just that. Wang, Moose, Randy and Pavano will have to pitch with their skill/money, and Igawa, quite resonably, will expect to play for the major league club.

With Rasner or Karstens as the 5 guy, the Yanks had alot more flexibility.

2006-11-28 17:34:06
91.   jonnystrongleg
88 & 90 Interesting that you see 5 pitchers where most would see 2 pitchers, a 43 year old back surgery, an pretty big question mark from japan and carl pavano.

it's rare when 5 guys stick around to make most of the starts for half a season - but considering that 2 of these guys might not be healthy out of spring training and the other has never thrown a pitch in the MLB, you'll have to forgive me if i don't see having those 5 names as prohibitive in any way shape or form.

you're really expecting pavano to start the season AND be effective immediately? really?

2006-11-28 17:37:35
92.   joejoejoe
88 Peter Abraham reported Scott Proctor is going into '07 as a starter per Cashman.

So the April rotation is...
Wang, Mussina, Igawa, Proctor, ???? (don't really need a 5th SP in April)

Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Igawa, Proctor

Wang, Mussina, Johnson, Hughes, Igawa - Proctor to pen

This assumes Randy Johnson coming back May 1. It has Karstens, Rasner, Sanchez as contingency plans and Hughes as an option later in the year. There is also a bumper crop of '08 free agent pitchers that should be on the trade market. I like what Cashman is doing. I think the Yanks go into '07 with a much stronger team. Calling Igawa the crappier of the two Japanese pitchers is like calling Matsui the crappier of the two Japanese OFs after Ichiro. Japan can produce more than one good player per position.

Igawa looks good to me - see for yourself at link below.

2006-11-28 17:42:57
93.   yanklifer
one of our starters will definately either get injured or be ineffective, making room for hughes. let's not worry about having too many arms
2006-11-28 17:50:01
94.   Zack
Yeah, I tend to agre with joe here. Just because Igawa isn't DM doesn't mean he isn't good. Check Mike plugh's analysis, check his Japan #s, check out the article on espn and see what Reyes and Wright say about him. Sure, he isn't DM, lets get over that, but even if he puts up, say, 4.00 era, 200 innings, (and he has better conrtol than Ishii) then thats fine.

And I think everyone needs to slow down with Hughes. The Yanks aren't rushing him. He hasn't thrown over 150 innings yet, and he hasn't thrown over AA yet. Counting on seeing him in pinstripes before July is silly, and who knows, he may play all year in AAA. I would much rather see him gain some arm strength, gain some experience, and come up in 2008 ready for a full season then to rush him up this year with more pressure. We are talking long term here folks, not short term. Wouldn't you all rather "suffer" through a year with karstens/Rasner/Proctor to assure Hughes' long term success? I hardly think he would be "wasted" at AAA...

2006-11-28 17:50:16
95.   RIYank
90 I know, with those five constituting the rotation, the only way Hughes could break in is if, say, Pavano or Johnson got injured: practically impossible!
2006-11-28 17:50:30
96.   rabid stan
91 Don't worry, I forgive you. I know I'm being optimistic about those guys, but that's only because I want them to do well. I also want to see Phil Hughes by midseason, so you'll forgive me if I'm a little torn.

Actually, I think this means Pavano will be dealt. But if they really do want to stick with him, or if they can't find anyone willing to make a deal, he will be in the rotation.

If he's still on the payroll, but not in the rotation, his career should be over, and this Hughes thing is a moot point. Someone will stand in for Pavano through April and May, then step aside for Hughes. So Pavano has a big incentive to be active out of Spring Training, big enough that I suspect he will even pitch hurt, even though he probably doesn't like playing for NY (stop laughing at me!). He'll pitch, unless he truly incapable. He may well suck and get himself sent down to the minors, making room for Hughes that way, but that's nothing to root for.

As for Johnson and Igawa, I don't want them to pitch poorly or lose games or get injured just so Hughes can come up and pitch regularly, for the same reason.

2006-11-28 18:12:07
97.   Jim Dean
The only thing that I can take away from the Igawa is that he's a lefty and he isn't DM. After DM, it's pretty much a no lose situation. If he and DM are close in their results, the Yanks look much smarter. If he's a total Pavano, it's that they didn't blow that much on him - relatively speaking. And if he manages to pitch better than DM, then it looks like a steal. I suppose they only look bad if DM is Pedro and Igawa is Pavano.

But the money is silly. I hope the Yanks do indeed play the same games. The problem is that the Sux complete negotiations first and so Boras drives up the market.

2006-11-28 18:39:31
98.   jakewoods
Do you really think Hughes wont be brought up in mid season no matter what if hes pitching well?

Its always better to have extra pitchers. I dont think many teams get thru a yr with all 5 guys making 35 starts. And I dont see someone as talented as Hughes not forcing his way up and into the rotation.

2006-11-28 18:54:39
99.   Jim Dean
Some interesting quotes from a guy in Selig's office regarding side deals associated with the posting process:

I can't imagine he'd say anything else though. And if a deal does get done, I can't imagine anyone complaining, except other teams. Even then who's to know what really happened. The only way I can see something happening is if someone feels they got screwed - like Seibu. And then I think the rememdy is that fair negotiations clause.

So not much to see here - move along.

2006-11-28 19:22:33
100.   jakewoods
So why didnt some team bid 150 million and cut a side deal knowing you're never going to pay it full?

Is that "good faith"?

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2006-11-28 19:25:35
101.   RIYank
Actually, that looks completely decisive to me, Jim Dean -- good find.
And sure, it's conceivable that the execs could swing an arrangement that would be hard to detect or prove, but it would be a nasty, nasty mess if they did pull something and word got out. John Henry would veto anything like that; no way he lays the rep of the Red Sox on the line for $10 million.

The same article has Boras saying that a Drew deal will be done in the winter meetings.

Finally, from what I'm hearing (on local and Boston radio), Boston expects to get maybe 50 cents on the baseball value dollar for Manny, say one good prospect and a mid-level. It's not age or injury but attitude that's driving the trade talks. So far I've only heard Padres, Giants, Dodgers, but for sure Manny would prefer the AL. Maybe the Angels will be getting a little Christmas gift?

2006-11-28 19:38:19
102.   Zack
98 Yes, I really do. What's going to determine whether Hughes comes up this year or not will most likely not be anything but his arm and his development. We have other options that have more innings under their belt, and are, honestly, more suitable. Rasner, Karstens, and Sanchez. Wouldn't you much rather see Hughes healthy and be assured of his long term success by not rushing him? I am all for seeing the guy pitch in the majors, I just don't want to see him overworked...I'd say overhyped too, but its too late for that
2006-11-28 19:45:52
103.   wsporter
I've heard of the Supremacy Clause, the Contract Clause, a bankruptcy clause, an anti-hypothecation clause, an assignment of proceeds clause, a replacement clause, a sanity clause or even a Santa Claus if one prefers but for the life of me I can't figure out this "fair negotiation clause"? Just what is it?

102 If that's what the Sawx expect for Manny I think it makes the Sheff to Detroit deal look even better. You go Ca$hMoney.

2006-11-28 20:05:23
104.   Jim Dean
Too much of that oyster sauce, wsport?

Call it whatever you want - but I can't imagine Selig allowing one of these players to return to Japan. That's the one place where he'd step in, if any side didn't negotiate in "good faith". But you're probably right 101.

102 There's no way Manny gets dealt and the Sux get a lesser deal than the Shef pact. Manny is younger, healthier, and much better! The money isn't that different, esp since Shef required an extension, and I'd argue Manny has the better attitude.

The question I think is whether anyone wants to give up one A prospect and one B in this market these days (Yanks got a B+ and one C+ as per Sickles Pre-season rankings) or even two B level prospects. If anything Cash did an amazing job getting the Shef trade out of the way and getting something of value. Now if the Sux sign Nancy, I can't imagine how they don't lose value in a Manny trade. If a deal's not right, I'd say they end up putting Nancy in CF and Wiffy Mo in RF. Then maybe they go out and get a cheap option at SS or trade Coco for one. Man, they have a lot of holes - that doesn't even include the bullpen.

2006-11-28 20:21:50
105.   wsporter
Will Mr. Selig be squeezing toothpaste back into the tube at the same time he stops these players from returning to Japan; or will he be doing just the one trick?
2006-11-28 20:25:53
106.   Jim Dean
Turning tricks is about right for that cat -he's mighty pissed with the dollars being passed around to OPP these days.
2006-11-28 20:35:50
107.   Chyll Will
81 Sorry Mike, I have you wayyy-beat on my TinyHyphen jobber two months ago >;)
2006-11-28 20:48:25
108.   Yu-Hsing Chen
a few thoughts.

1. Igawa: he's ur typical lefty with a pulse, well alittle better than that, he's 27, and while his fastball isn't eye poping (not bad by lefty standards though) his secodaries are pretty good, it remains to be seen what he can do here, but he's almost certainly better than say.. jaret Wright, Shawn Chacon, or to Rasner/Karstan.

2.Wolf: at the market rate, it's fairly reasonable, low risk deal, and the Dodgers aren't exactly running on a low budget anyway. i just hope this doesn't lead them into doing something retarded like trading Kuo/ Billingsly for a slugger. (though since i'm huge Kuo fan i rather see him not on the same team as Juan Pierre for the next 5 year lol)

2006-11-28 21:47:57
109.   Cliff Corcoran
New post up on Igawa above.
2006-11-29 10:34:35
110.   underdog
108 Don't worry, Pierre won't be on the Dodgers for 5 years, contract or no. ;-) I hope Kuo is, though.

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