Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Ah, those RBI. They are the magic numbers that propelled Justin Morneau ahead of his more deserving teammates Johan Santana, and Joe Mauer--not to mention Derek Jeter--today as Minnie's first baseman wins the AL MVP. Congrats to Morneau. Otherwise, this is a bum call.
it is a shame.
NOTHING ever changes.
Now I know how Sox fans felt last year with Ortiz...
Yeah, it would have been cool for Jeets, but Yankee fans shouldn't be worrying about individual awards.
10 We were all robbed.
I can agree that 1999 the stars were in alignment as well. Jeter probably should have been MVP that year-----I'll still take Santana in '06 (with Jeter 2nd).
scarlett johannson, jessica alba, adriana lima, that miss universe there...
he'll be okay.
.321/.375/.559 - .934 OPS
.315 EqA, 8.9 WARP 3
3rd best MVP candidate on his own team
Paul Konerko - 152 games - 35 HR
.313/.381/.551 - .932 OPS
.313 EqA, 8.0 WARP 3
3rd best MVP candidate on his own team
The only difference, Morneau played slightly better defense.
Ladies and Gentlemen, your AL MVP: basically Paul Konerko.
Oh, and it ties Roy Smalley's 52 in 1979.
So, by my count, Morneau tied for 25th best offensive season in Twins history. Literally speaking its "one of the best", but in reality, its far from it.
Congrats, BBWAA, you proved once again that some of your members do not deserve the privileges granted to them.
Canseco won an MVP, Juan Gonzalez won an MVP. Terry Pendelton won an MVP, Andre Dawson won an MVP. George Bell, George Foster. Roger Maris won twice in a row. Bonds has seven. Enhance your place in history? No offense, but ask them if it helped.
Then again, this is coming from someone who will never get a chance to date anyone that Jeter has... ;-)
By the way, I was right on with my prediction that Guillen would come in 10th, appearing on 12 ballots.
Willie Hernandez is BEST KNOWN for his 1984 MVP.
Of the players you mention that are not so great, their MVP award is the shining light on their careers.
Of the players you mention who were great once and then not so much, it's serves as the starting point for their cautionary tale "former MVP Jose Canseco snorts coke off hooker's cleavage" etc
Barry Bonds, 7 MVP awards affirms he dominated the game like no other player in the history of the award.
The MVP will not get a player in the Hall of Fame or out of jail by itself, but it is the most prestigious individual award you can win - obviously it enhances one's place in history to win one.
8 I wonder how many RBIs Morneau would've gotten if he had either Abreu, A-Rod, or Giambi hitting behind him for protection instead of Torii Hunter / Rondell White. ;-)
19 by your own logic:
Derek Jeter - 154 games - 14 HR
.343/.417/.483 - .900 OPS
.309 EqA, 9.8 WARP 1
An inferior MVP candidate to Morneau except for the WARP value.
I honestly thought Morneau had a pretty strong case all along, precisely because he posted those numbers hitting 5th with absolutely no protection. I could have made a good case for Jeter too. I thought it was a close call all along. (All the non-playoff guys -- Ortiz, Dye, Manny, etc. -- being automatically disqualified in the eyes of the voters.)
I will gaze at the numbers for Morneau and Big Hurt for 10,000 years and I'll have no idea why they received so many MVP votes in 2006.
Big Hurt had 77 runs scored and a .270 batting average and he's a DH and he missed 25 games.
I could have taken a Mauer win (in fact I would have voted for him).
I guess KJC is right. Consecutive undeserved Gold Gloves are karmically costly.
I know I'm in the minority here, but I'm not even so clear that he was the clear choice in 1999. Don't get me wrong, he was much better than Pudge, and it wasn't even close. But so were Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez and Nomar Garciaparra and Bernie Williams - all substantially better than Pudge. Put Jeter up against Rodriguez and it's no contest; put him up against those other guys and it's a lot closer.
he carried this team on his back. two potent bats down for 4 months. jeter produces. when cano was down for 6 weeks on top of the other mounting injuries, jeter was the guy who was getting things done. while others were slumping or swooning ("that third baseman"), jeter kept producing.
he was consistent. he led the team when everyone expected a collapse. remember when cano, sheffield and matsui were all out and the sox won 13 straight? if memory serves, the yankees only lost 2 games on them. jeter was swinging a hot bat.
he was by far the most valuable man on his team this year, and as far as i can see that isn't the case with morneau.
http://tinyurl.com/yxdgwa
Eh, who cares?
Lots of Yankees represented in the voting: Jeter, Rodriguez, Giambi, Cano, Rivera, Damon, Wang.
But I used WARP 3. Jeter has a WARP 3 of 12.1 v. Morneau's 8.6. Want to eliminate those messy defensive considerations, and maybe keep our focus to this season? Fine. Jeter's 9.8 WARP 1 is still better than Morneau's 7.3.
And Morneau's season adjusted EqA was .300, his all-time adjusted EqA was the .315 cited in 19.
I like 34 HR and a .934 OPS from my first-baseman, but I'm not throwing a parade.
.900 from a shortstop is more valuable, even if he's nobody's idea of a power hitter, because it means he's gotten on base a ton. Jeter not only did this, but threw in great baserunning, too.
Finally, though I personally would have liked Jeter to win, I wouldn't have barked if the award went to Mauer or Santana. Morneau was clearly an inferior choice.
The MVP award is a major misnomer, it should be the MPP (Most Productive Player); seeing as that value defies definition (or consistancy).
33 That's the trick, my brotha. You aint's supposed to luvdem...
It was embarrassing. Heres his big reason. You ready?
A Rod was more clutch.
I sh*t u not.
What a travesty.
He even had Mad dog defending Jeter which is damn near impossible.
Thats a good argument. I'm sure being in a good lineup helps. But also remember this.
What if Morneua played in NY? No telling if he could handle everything that goes into it. Maybe that avg becomes 270 and he disappears for weeks at a time.
Little easier playing in Minny than in front of 55,000 every night.
Not that I think clutchiness should be a consideration, but I know it is, and I have never heard that before.
A player who wears #13, got 13 votes, and finished in 13th place.
Mauer gets LESS THEN 1/2 the votes of Morneau.
35 Ask 25 players on Oakland if they had had a league average DH, would they have been in the PS? FT's numbers weren't that great, but he made the different for his team. That does make you valuable.
Santana was great, but they do have a CY award only for pitchers. Win 31 games (like McLain), or 27 or maybe 25? I'd consider it. But not 19 wins for MVP over someone who contributed everyday, and made the difference, like Jeter.
What gets me is that Morneu wasnt even the best player on his team. Mauer is way more valuable.
Mauer had a 54-point edge in OBP over Morneau and won a Gold Glove as a catcher.
Morneau at 1b was only 12th in homers and 2nd in rbi's.
A disgrace.
Veneu is irrelevant huh?
Ask Kenny Rogers if its different playing in NY. Also ask Eddie Whitson, Kevin Brown, Pavano, Knoblauch, etc.
Just like Im sure its not the same in Boston. Some markets are just much tougher and you have to mentally tougher to play there. Its not sure thing that stats or performance will translate.
And Mike Celizic agrees:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15825167/
>> People who watch him every day including those who've made the game their lives for 30 or 40 years know that Jeter simply gets things done. He moves runners over, gets on base, steals and runs the bases as well as anyone, can lay down a sacrifice, hit the other way and, when he puts his mind to it, drive it out of the park. Hitting second, he still drove in 97 runs while scoring 118. By one measure adding runs and RBIs and subtracting home runs (You can't get two points if you drive yourself in) he actually produced more runs than anyone in the American League. <<
"Clutch ability" may not be a real or repeatable thing (color me on the fence, but mostly in the "doesn't exist camp" on it) but the player should be rewarded/punished for what they actually do in those situations. Arod's year was shittier than it looked because he was bad in close and late situations. Jeter's was better than it looked because he was great.
It may be useless as a predictive stat, but it's certainly a valid stat when measuring actual value.
46 This Cowley guy knows how to get a rise out of Yankee fans, for sure. Too bad he wouldn't know a baseball game if he was paid to watch one.
When Yankee fans are decrying the MVP vote not because Jeter lost but because Morneau wasn't even the MVP of his own team (whatever Johan Santana says), you know something is horribly wrong with the results of the MVP voting.
http://tinyurl.com/y8p3md
http://tinyurl.com/y6asp2
I take my hat off to Hat Guy, Mike Celzic, who just created a horribly meaningless stat. Add the two most team-dependent counting stats together and then subtract home runs - that's a way to define value.
I can't wait 'til the boys at firejoemorgan.com get a hold of that one.
Hey Alex, did you see that Murray Chass had an article in today's NY Times supporting Marvin Miller's election to the Hall of Fame: http://tinyurl.com/ylj6eb. It probably won't happen, but it nice to see that Chass is speaking up on Miller's behalf.
Bill James's writing about the Hall of Fame is generally not about who should be in, but about who does get in. I look at this the same way; here's how I see it.
9 times out of 10, it goes to someone who is a HR/RBI guy, and he should be the clear leader on his team in those categories. Right there, we practically eliminate the Yankees and Tigers, who had no one Big Gun. Mauer loses points as well.
He should be on a winning team, preferably an overachieving one, certainly not one that underachieves. Goodby, Papi.
It's better if he's not a pitcher or DH. And the voters really like a guy who suddenly burst into HR/RBI prominence - he's gotten more buzz over the course of the season. Frank Thomas hits like hell, dog bites man. Justin Morneau suddenly hits the big time - that catches their eye.
"And while we're at it, how the heck did Thomas -- the third-best designated hitter in the American League -- end up fourth in the voting? It's just more evidence that the bulk of this year's voters don't understand what is actually valuable in baseball: Players who hit and play good defense up the middle are the most valuable position players in the game."
Some revelant comparisons:
Albert Pujols (2005)
.330/.430/.609, 41 HR, 1.039 OPS
Alex Rodriguez (2005)
.321/.421/.610, 48 HR, 1.031 OPS
Those were your 2005 MVP's.
Now Morneau:
.321/.375/.559, 34 HR, .934 OPS
There's a difference between being "able to play", and all the understatement that phrase implies, and being the MVP.
At 1B, Morneau has a high bar to meet in the power production department, and he didn't meet it. It's different for Jeter at SS. He played far above of his position in every statistical measure. Hell, if he were a 1B, his .900 OPS would be good for third in the AL at that position.
(True, Carlos Guillen had a .919 OPS at short, but Jeter was hands down better in WARP1 and WARP3, had a higher VORP and 48 more hits.)
Morneau doesn't deserve the AL MVP. As been pointed out, he wasn't even the MVP of his team. But, hey, it isn't the first time the BWAA screwed up, and unfortunately it won't be the last time
59 NEVER use HatGuy as support for your argument.
And for good reason.
Given some of the staffs, I'm better off not remembering :)
I dont know how you can not agree that some markets are harder to play in than others.
Im not saying some guys would be complete flops but it is harder to play in NY and Boston if you're not mentally tough.
Look at A Rod. He had good numbers this yr in NY and he was on the front page of every paper everyday. All of them asking "whats wrong?"
If hes playing in Minnesota and drives in 120 hes a God.
Thank you Shaun P, I was just about to say that again. The outrage would be minimal at best if Mauer or Santana won. And imagine if Morneau thought of himself as much as A-Rod does. Next year would be deja vu all over again relocated to Minny....
I don't know him, but if he's a humble guy in real life (as opposed to fantasy baseball, where this year's voting all around apparently took place) I actually feel embarressed for him. It's wrong to award a player an award he doesn't deserve because of some ill-conceived pre-notion default, no matter what team he's on. Hmph & phooey.
There is a HR crown, an RBI crown, and a Batting crown. There is an ERA crown, a Saves crown, and a SB crown. All of the above are statistically-based in total. No arguments...just numbers. I know you sabremetrics guys want WARPS and OPS+ and such to be the be-all, end-all but they aren't. Big plays at key moments...leadership...emotional lifts cannot be measured by WARP value. Papi continually winning games with walk-off HRs means more to the Sox than just the games he actually wins. Jeter's big two-out hit in Fenway had a big carry-over effect IMHO.
The subjective awards are just that -- subjective. As Yankee fans you are all biased in favor of Jeter, so you naturally lean towards him. (I know you guys are saying you would have accepted Mauer, but that's BS -- you would be ranting about Mauer just the same if he won. "He only had 84 RBIs from the 3 spot...he doesn't run bases like Jeter...etc.) I saw Jeter play in at least 120 games this year. I saw Morneau play in about 8. I am clearly not qualified to judge the impact the latter had on his team's season except by using statistics, so how do I compare Jeter and Morneau on a subjective basis? I can't -- good thing I don't vote.
All I know is that both players carried their teams on their backs when they needed it. Perhaps we shoud ask the BatGirl about Morneau? If you were watching the nightly SC highlights in September, you saw Morneau doing it time and time again when they absolutely had to have it -- not Mauer. Just like Jeter did it when we needed it during that stretch earlier in the year -- not A-Rod. On a subjective basis, I could see it going either way. In my heart I wanted Jeter, but I didn't think it was clear cut by any stretch of the imagination. Just as it wasn't clear cut last year when many people claimed Ortiz got jobbed.
Put another way -- Morneau was closer to being the MVP of the AL than Jeter was to being the best defensive SS in the AL...and the latter was only between 14 guys. ;-P
http://tinyurl.com/w8a8e
then Curt Flood should be with inducted with him
And Buck O'Neill too.
Pete Rose can sign autographs outside.
"I choose to focus on all-around offensive value along with defense and positional adjustments, and give no weight to how good someone's teammates are, which is why Morneau's case for the award shrinks considerably in my eyes."
"Except for the top spot, my ballot won't look much like those cast by people who actually have votes, but that's just fine with me."
This is precisely my point -- it's subjective. Everyone has their own view of it. Gleeman puts forth his which includes no weighting for rest of the batting order around the player (tell me Papi is Papi without Manny behind him), and he gives extra points for the defensive position the guy plays. I think the latter is a valid argument -- C and SS are much more difficult to play defensively. But it's still subjective.
Happy Turkey Day to all the Bronx Banterers! Travel safely...
The award is a huge honor and I care who gets it. I'm an idiot for caring, but I do.
MLB must love these kind of debates because it gets people talking about baseball when they'd ordinarily be talking football or basketball. All these teams are awash in TV money and revenue sharing, so they're getting quite ballsy in the FA market. Jeter, Mauer, Pujols, they were boring choices from a writer's perspective I'm guessing because the fans had already chosen them. Why reiterate something people already know? No one's going to read your column, then.
Ah, but throw them a curve (which is probably the closest to playing baseball some of them have ever come) and people are outraged, looking for answers, demanding an explanation. They'll be charged the regular rate, and they'll pass it along without a thought. They'll be awash in BS, endlessly pondering and debating the simpleminded travesty in a system that ultimately means nothing. Football will wonder, basketball will consider, both will momentarily suffer. And MLB and baseball writers will rejoice in their renewed status as the focus of the general sports public.
Ohhhh, people will come, Count. People will certainly come.
What's galling is that there are stats more indicative of a player's contribution, worth and talent, but those aren't used. EqA, WARP, VORP, etc., those are too complicated, but we all know the passer rating of our favorite NFL quaterback? That formula is a nightmare, but it shows up in the sports pages every week. It's a factor in NFL MVP voting. It's a noted single season record.
The stats do not break for Morneau, but the selection is being defended (not here, obviously) as if they did. Subjective considerations were, at best, a wash for him I have a hard time believing that a press corp that has been fawning over Jeter's leadership, heroics, and intangibles for the past decade suddenly decided that Morneau just had it and Jeter didn't.
No, both had it, but Morneau had more RBI.
The word "value" should not throw the debate to the wind the way some people claim it does.
It obviously is A-Rod's fault.
If A Rod didnt have the heat in NY he would put up even better numbers which is scary.
Its too bad voters dont actually watch games which is what Cowley basically said.
Interestingly, I haven't seen anyone try to define value as "value for the dollar." By this definition, Morneau (and Ryan Howard) may indeed be the most valuable.
95 I was thinking that the phrase has become a common understanding that doesn't have be stated...
82 Count, you're right, how the voters evaluate who is "most valuable" is a subjective choice on their part.
BUT - the process is not entirely subjective. If it was, then why even bother to point to any numbers at all? No performance metric, no matter how advanced, can measure some of the intangible qualities like leadership, character, etc - as you rightly say.
But the MVP vote has never been just about those subjective qualities. Jason Varitek, for example, is the acknowledged leader of the Red Sox - yet no one voted for him for MVP, because his numbers stunk.
So its a combination of subjective criteria and the numbers. As it should be.
My problem is when the subjective criteria and the numebrs the voters use is full of sh*t. For example, a win is a win - in other words, games in September aren't any more or less meaningful than games in April - yet MVP voters continually give extra weight to end of season performance, often at the sacrifice of the totality of the performance over a season.
On the numbers side, RBIs are an awful stat for evaulating how a player "carries a team" - Morneau couldn't have gotten big RBIs at any time if guys like Mauer weren't on base ahead of him. Yet MVP voters consistently reward the guys with the most RBIs.
And on and on. After an MVP voter chooses to make a decision based in part on the numbers, they damn well ought to use numbers that actually have some meaning in terms of saying how valuable a player was. Similarly with the subjective criteria - the voters should not be illogical.
If, after considering the numbers that make sense and the subjective critieria that make sense, an MVP voter felt Morneau was more valuable than Jeter, than fine. But its pretty clear from the numbers alone that Morneau was far less valuable than either Mauer or Santana, as well as Jeter. And I don't think its possible for Morneau's subjective criteria to outweigh those of the best catcher in MLB, the best pitcher in MLB, and the Cap'n.
"While I know that voting for these awards is primarily based on differing opinions and statistical debates, it's also part of what makes baseball such a great sport," Jeter said in a statement released by the Yankees.
"Having said that, I'm flattered and honored to have been considered for the American League Most Valuable Player Award. I want to congratulate Justin Morneau on this well-deserved honor. He is a special player, and I suspect this won't be the last time you will hear his name mentioned when awards are being passed out.
"You've heard me say it a thousand times, but winning the World Series for the New York Yankees continues to be my main focus. There is no individual award that can compare with a championship trophy, and I look forward to working towards that challenge again in 2007."
http://tinyurl.com/y44thh
bangs head on desktop
Yo dumbasses, clearly you baseball writers don't know squat about baseball. My stats show that I am the AL MVP so take your award and shove it.
Hey Justin, you got lucky, but know that I'll be hanging out with Jessica Biel and other hot chicks who you can only dream of so you got nothing on me with that award.
Lets get Jetes some pitching so he can add to his ring total which is more important anyway
103 That's a class act. A Perfect statement.
Translate all you want, the writers would never be able to squeeze out good quotes for the papers from Jeter, no wonder many of them don't like him. Arod sells papers not Jeter.
That said, releasing the statement tends to indicate that he was expecting the trophy.
Then he can be the first base coach on his day off.
And he can get you cherce seats at a cut-rate before the game starts.
And lead the groundscrew in a pop-lock demo during "YMCA"
And do a Nat & Natelie-like duet with Kate Smith when not filling in for Bob Sheppard
And improve his clutch numbers for November
Oh, and one more thing that will clinch the MVP: Give A-Rod a hug. "I LOVE YOU, MAN!"
He wants another world series trophy. what is so strange about that? does he really not believe it or want it??? doubtful
i think hes 100% genuine everytime he says something especially about individual awards
what makes u doubt him besides cynicism?
He wants another world series trophy. what is so strange about that? does he really not believe it or want it??? doubtful
i think hes 100% genuine everytime he says something especially about individual awards
what makes u doubt him besides cynicism?
If folks think its bad that Price didn't vote Jeter #1, imagine how Joe Mauer must feel right now. One of the Minnesota voters put Mauer tenth. Tenth! On the basis of what, I can only wonder.
I say this everywhere, MLB needs to be totally restructured. Most of it comes from 100 years ago. I've been a fan half that time---but fat cats didn't get fat by changing their habits.
i just picked a card set at random, 1964 topps, and scrolled through... a lot of great finds...
a tough joe torre
a great jim kaat
a spry don zimmer
a kid named tito francona
the mets tandem of choo choo chamberlain and pumpsie green
lou piniella's rookie card
not to mention the great hank aaron, mikey mantle, elston howard, "bob clemente", frank howard, bob gibson, a series of manager cards where the guys are pretending to be shouting from the dugout with a hand to their mouths...
i will gladly kill my time today at this site.
much appreciated.
As far as fairness goes, Jetes getting the GG was probably the most agregious... with defensive numbers that put him middle of the pack.
Obviously???, the HA award (pure offense)should have been between Hafner, Ortiz, Dye, Thome or Manny (in that order).
The Silver Slugger for third base to Crede?
Mauer, an excellent catcher (most difficult position) on a PS team who just happens to lead the league in batting, 3rd in OBP, with a .936 OPS.... is SIXTH in MVP?
It would be VERY easy to set a few guidelines for these awards. It would be easy to say which stats should be considered, which might have the most weight, and how much position, defense and other (non-slugging) stats come into play. They don't have to be absolutes, but guidelines for voters to consider and be accountable for.
It would be better for both fans and players... but not for the press. So guess what?
Yes... yes... I know baseball is a business (not our national pastime) and money rules, but does FAIRNESS in professional sports have any value that deserves consideration?
/rant
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