While we await the results of the AL MVP voting, allow me to share an idea that popped into my head while looking over yesterday's MLB transactions, specifically these two headlines:
First of all, no, Moose's deal still isn't final, though pending a physical today it will be done by tomorrow. And, yes, he seems to have picked up an extra half-mil along the way.
Second, in this wild offseason that has already seen the Cubs go crazy on Alfonso Soriano ($136 million/8yrs) and the Red Sox bid $51,111,111.11 just to negotiate with Japanese import Daisuke Matsuzaka, the following deals all look mighty reasonable:
- Moises Alou: $8.5 million/1yr + $7.5/$1 mil club option for 2008
- Frank Thomas: $18 million/2yrs + vesting 2009 option
- Craig Biggio: $5.15 million/1yr
- Mike Mussina: $23 million/2yrs (+ $1.5 buyout for 2007)
- Jamie Moyer: $10.5 million/2yrs + $3.5 million in incentives
- Orlando Hernandez: $12 million/2yrs
All relatively low-risk, short-term contracts that, despite the marquee names involved, are actually commensurate with the player's level of production. What's the common thread? The players involved range in age from Mike Mussina, who will be 38 in just a few weeks, to Jamie Moyer, who just turned 44.
There are two things I draw from this. First, the Yankees' decision to take Mussina's hometown discount rather than make an expensive long-term commitment to a younger league-average-at-best starter such as recent conversation pieces Ted Lilly or the execrable Gil Meche was not only wise, but has thus far been underappreciated. Second, Brian Cashman should follow his own example and go after the now-available Tom Glavine.
Glavine, who will be 41 in March, earned $7.5 million in 2006 with an additional $5.25 million deferred (restructured in May from an original $10.5 million). He also just picked up a cool $3 million via his buyout from the Mets. All of which suggests that he could easily be had for less than Mussina, say $18 to $20 million over two years, possibly with money deferred. Consider the pros to such a deal:
- Glavine has played in New York for the last four years, the last two of them for one of Joe Torre's managerial protégés. There would be no adjustment required for him to move up to the Bronx, personally or professionally. He might even be willing to offer the Yankees a hometown discount of sorts. Glavine has reportedly narrowed his options to New York and Atlanta and is simply trying to make up his mind where he wants to play. Indeed, one of the reasons these veterans are so reasonably priced is that, by time they've reached this late stage of their careers, location and winning are more important to them than that last couple million or the long-term security their All-Star careers has already given them.
- With the exception of the strike-shortened seasons of 1995 and 1995, Glavine has made a minimum of 32 starts every year since 1990.
- Glavine has had an ERA below league average just once since 1991, that coming four years ago
- Glavine's strike-out rate has actually trended upwards in recent years and his K/BB ratio has improved in each of the last three seasons, each of which have seen him post peripherals similar to his averages for his Hall of Fame career.
- Glavine's list of comparable pitchers according to Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA cards include names such as Warren Spahn, Don Sutton, Tommy John, Jerry Koosman, David Wells, Jamie Moyer, and Kenny Rogers, all pitchers who were still league-average starters or better at the age of 41 and, in some cases, beyond.
- Glavine is a groundball pitcher, thus unlikely to become homer prone like recent NL imports Javy Vazquez, Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson
- The Yankees have a growing supply of young pitching prospects, some of whom should break through to the majors for good in 2007. That makes now an ideal time to have a pair of veteran pitchers' pitchers such as Mussina and Glavine around to serve as mentors to Philip Hughes and organization's other up-and-coming young hurlers.
- On the business side, Glavine is ten wins short of 300. That's a sure-fire mid-season attendance bump as he approaches that milestone.
Now, it's very possible that Glavine doesn't want to leave the National League, so all of the above may be moot, but it's certainly something that Brian Cashman should be exploring.
Meanwhile, the MVP announcement should come around 2pm EST. I don't expect we'll be disappointed.
You want "above". And I seem to recall that the strike zone reinterpretation was especially hard on him (perhaps because he had been accustomed to getting marginal strike calls on outside pitches) - maybe that was the four-years-ago glitch?
I don't understand why Glavine would leave the Mets to join the Yankees - unless I missed something, the former still want him.
I'm biting my nails hoping Cash doesn't stoop to signing Meche and his "live arm."
But if we were to sign him, would that set some record for oldest pitching staff ever, and perhaps the pitching staff with the most wins ever? Hell, bring in Roger, lets have 4 starters all close to or over 40 and all over or approaching 300 wins!!
5 If we see Kenny Rogers in pinstripes next year, you are paying for his pine tar.
As for Glavine. I'd say there's about a 1% chance that the Yankees can sign him. He's really chomping at the bit to return to Atlanta, and only the Mets' money is keeping him around. In the AL he'd have to worry about the DH and why would he want to do that if he didn't have to?
It's funny though, I remember listening to Mike and the Mad Dog just a few years ago (summer of 2003, maybe). And Chris Russo went on a two hour rant about how Glavine was "shot," and how he didn't have anything left. Glavine had an ERA under 2.50 for the rest of the 2003 season, and he's been solid ever since.
Give me Zito or Lilly over Glavine. Younger and AL tested.
New additions to the 40 man - Sardinha, Kennard, and Chase Wright.
http://tinyurl.com/u8n65
Any one know more about Wright? He was old for High-A, but ok numbers.
Obviously he would prefer Atlanta, but he's likely concerned that it would be difficult to get Ws there. In which case, the Mets would be a good second choice and would likely get him the 10 wins easily. This guy is not going to pick up his last 10 at a third team -- it's against his nature.
Man this is a brutal off-season. I can't believe the amount of money being thrown around for the junk on the market. It's kind of like the dot-com boom of the late 90's. I remember seeing some classmates of mine with some obscene offers - even though they managed to have a GPA way below the average for the entire graduating class.
Oh well, when you are a commodity then it doesn't matter if you are a baseball player, an engineer, a garbage man, or anything, if your services are needed then you will get paid. Hmm....now I know why prostitution is such a profitable business. Those services are always in demand.
But like many others, I'll be shocked if he leaves the NL. It would still be a great addition for the Yanks.
The other thing is something I didn't think about at all until Aviezer brought it up yesterday. Type 'A' free agents, like Aurilia, will cost the Yanks a 1st round draft pick. No way Ca$hmoney gives up a 1st round pick, especially since there are so many sandwich picks now between the 1st and 2nd rounds, which potentially lessens the quality of second (and later) round picks (hat tip to Keith Law).
I think there is a cut-off date after which the Yanks don't lose any draft picks. Whatever moves the Yanks make, it will be after that date.
Check out these rates (H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9)
2004 (A): 10.47 0.42 5.97 5.34
2005 (A): 8.00 0.63 4.31 6.88
2006 (A+): 7.14 0.08 3.23 7.52
Looks like he learned the value of throwing strikes. What pops out most last year is that he gave up 1 HR in 119 innings. The problem is he was old for that league at 23. But as a lefty he still has value even as he's most defintely not a prospect.
I imagine he'll start the year at Trenton.
1.) Jeter
2.) Santana
3.) Mauer
4.) Guillen
5.) Hafner
6.) Dye
7.) Ortiz
8.) Thome
9.) Guerrero
10.) Sizemore
I could tolerate Jeter losing out to Santana or Mauer, but I'll be sick if another Twin steals it from him.
I don't understand the Ortiz hype that is still out there. Every "expert ballot" (e.g. USA Today, ESPN) seems to have one first-place vote for Big Papi. Ortiz and Hafner are both burly, power-hitting DHs with clutch tendencies playing for non-contenders. In an apples-to-apples comparison, Hafner is better.
I would go:
1.) Jeter
2.) Santana
3.) Mauer
4.) Dye
5.) Guillen
6.) Hafner
7.) Guillen
8.) Sizemore
9.) Ortiz
10.) Ramirez
Notice Morneau, who will likely finish 1st or 2nd, is not on the list.
1.) Jeter
2.) Santana
3.) Mauer
4.) Dye
5.) Guillen
6.) Hafner
7.) Sizemore
8.) Ortiz
9.) Thomas
10.) Ramirez
10 G
62 IP
5-2 record
4.52 ERA
He had 1 very bad start vs. Seattle (6 ER, 2.1 IP, 23.14 ERA). Remove that start and the numbers read:
9 G
59 2/3 IP
5-1 record
2.45 ERA
Having said that, I'd be shocked if the guy ever played in the AL.
Why'd the Mets decline the option? They seem to like old guys even more than we do....
Rumor that Jeter and Morneau tied for MVP.
If it is true, at least it was only half a terrible choice. Since when did 3rd best on team = league MVP??? Stupid RBIs...
31 I might be wrong, but I think this year's eligible players would be grandfathered in the old CBA, with the new one going into effect in December? Am I right, anyone?
OK, I found a link to the rankings, but not to the methodology. I think it covers a 3 year period but I'm not sure.
http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx
And I think the changes from the new CBA go into affect next year.
The rankings are broken down by positions (all catchers, DH/1B/OF, 2B/SS/3B, starters, relievers).
I still vote for Daryle Ward.
While money is not Glavine's primary issue, it never hurts. The 2 incentives to come to the Yankees would be winning and money.
I'd give him 12-13 mil for one year (inbetween Lily and Zito). He wants to win a WS along with his 300... so the Mets (and maybe the Yankees) are in, the Braves may be out. If he wants to pitch next year, he can go to the Braves with cash in his pocket, and (hopefully) a WS under his belt.
We were willing to spend 20mil/yr for DM... so splurging on Glavine for one year, until Hughes is ready, ain't gonna break the bank.
Glavine should be league average at worst, but probably better.... eats lots of innings, is great under pressure, and as Cliff says, will be good for the kids.
Just look at what the Yankees have been dealing with: Giambi, Wilson, Guiel(although I like him), Sheffield(please!), and even Philips to some degree. Mientkiewicz could really solidify this infield. Jeter and Rodriguez made quite a few errant throws last season, a guy like Mientkiewicz could really cut down on that. Not to mention he's a gutsy player and he brings a certain, what I would call "personal rivalry" with the Red Sox with him...that part would just be interesting.
I've been reading the board lately and all the suggestions of Hillenbrand and Aurilla I just find absurd. People are suggesting another malcontent...a station to station guy, with a questionable glove, or Aurilla who I can only equate with that old Jetsons episode where Asto was taken back by Mr. Gottrockets and named Tralfaz (Yuck!)...Aurilla (Yuck!).
I'm sure you all know in the late 90's the Yankees had some platoons going on, especially leftfield. Right now the Yankees are covered everywhere with hitters that can flat out rake. Dropping a great defender like Mientkiewicz in the mix to anchor the infield defense is just good baseball. In fact you can even keep the cheap Phillips around to platoon with Doug on occasion. I really feel it could work...and I'll be dropping by the board to keep mentioning this point.
Hillenbrand...no! Aurilla (Yuck!). Mientkiewicz...I think yes. I'm sure I'll be crucified on here with all kinds of hitting statistics to make me look foolish but so be it. I'm steadfast in the belief that an excellent defensive firt baseman is the key. The reason Giambi is being looked at as a fulltime DH is defense, so let's see the Yankees replace him with a great glove first and foremost.
I don't have time to look up any other defensive numbers, but my guess is that Mientkiewicz's advantage with the glove isn't much, and not enough to overcome his left-handedness and his mediocre bat.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.