Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
"I tell you, I've been here a month and a couple of days, and I've seen some crazy things," said Bobby Abreu, who broke a 5-5 tie with a double to deep center. "This team has come back at any time, no matter what."
(Tyler Kepner, N.Y. Times)
Well, it was just a matter of time, I guess. The Yankees left runners on base in the first six innings last night in Kansas City and had just one run to show for it. They were retired in order in the seventh and then broke out for ten runs against the Royals' bullpen in the eighth, turning a 5-1 deficit into an 11-5 lead. The final score on "Star Wars" night in KC: Evil Empire 12, Royals 5. Chien-Ming Wang was not great though he did not pitch poorly either (Wang was victimized by a botched double play and a missed call at the plate in the sixth). Luke Hudson was what they like to call "effectively wild." His hard change-up was particularly sharp and he struck out ten Yankees. He also brushed a few Yankees back. In the third, Hudson knocked Jeter down with a pitch around the shortstop's noggin; after shooting Hudson a dirty look, Jeter lined the next pitch right back through the box, into the pitcher's body. You can only dream about stuff like that.
But KC's bullpen was awful in the eighth and the Yankees pounced. Forty-four pitches were thrown, ten runs scored, and when all was said and done, the Yanks remained nine ahead of Boston, who beat the White Sox in extra innings last night at Fenway Park. The magic number to clinch the division for the Bombers stands at 17. I wonder if Giambi and Damon partied with any Wookiees after the game.
Mike Mussina returns tonight, while Hideki Matsui will play in Trenton tomorrow.
Let's go Yanks!
Last week I heard that Torre was planning to skip Wright or Lidle and go with Wang on Saturday. I'm glad to see you reporting Lidle on Friday and Wright on Saturday. Both are coming off of good starts, and they need to battle for the last October rotation start.
Frankly, I would prefer that the Yankees skip over Wang this time around. He has already exeeded his 2005 innings count by 42.
Myself, I'd like to see Rasner get another start to allow Wang some extra rest, but also to add to Rasner's candidacy for next year's rotation.
I agree that Posada wouldn't be my real choice for QB, but given that he had the jack and he caught Gathright stealing then I thought it was only fitting.
If that's all correct, then he'll make it easily.
And last year, Robbie got 40 hits in September. He could actually challenge!
Mauer has been sub-.300 since the break, and is a very good bet to cool even more, since catchers almost invariably do. Mean while, Jeter is a good bet to heat up. September is his best month. I make Jeter the favorite to win the title.
Also, what's the word on Cairo? Is he done for the season? I'd like to see A-Rod, Jeter, and Cano rested for October. As I said the other day, I hope Jeets doesn't get caught up in this batting title race. It's much more important that he's ready for Oct.
Also, with Giambi scuffling a bit, perhaps Phillips will get at-bats by the bunch this month?
I have a feeling Sheff is going to fit like the cliched glove at first. Man, Joe might have a lot of juggling to do. Every manager should have his troubles.
L - Damon (CF)
R - Jeter (SS)
L - Abreu (RF)
R - Rodriguez (3B)
L - Giambi (DH)
R - Sheffield (1B)
L - Matsui (LF)
S - Posada (C)
L - Cano (2B)
That's just not fair.
Sorry, nothing serious or substancial today...
376 .274 .374 .476 .850
117 .342 .426 .692 1.119
I don't think we'll be seeing A-Rod back at #4 for any length of time. If anything's the big reason for his down year, it's how long they left at #4. Just as Giambi scuffs when he DH's, A-Rod shouldn't be batting fourth (see prior years for similar trends).
That's the thing - for all the simulations about how batting order doesn't matter, I have yet to see one where the results are weighted by actual results in slots. Assuming all batters will hit equally in all slots is a bad assumption. They don't.
I know I hope Shef doesn't make it back to rough up Guiel for playing time at 1B.
And for as much as I want to see Clutch-zilla in the post-season, I'd rather Melky is in the field.
If there is any truth to Cashman's "youth" movement, don't be surprised to see Matsui out of a job next year. Bottom line is, the kid's got pretty good numbers (albeit without power, but power comes later), he runs better, he certainly plays LF better, and he's only 21. If I absolutely had to sacrifice one of the two, it would be Matsui in a heartbeat.
Matsui at DH and Shef at 1st and some DH would make that happen. Ultimately though if Shef and Matsu are ready to go I can't see Melky holding them both off. The cold reality is that if they're both healthy and can both play the field Melky will have to sit.
And even as Shef may be healthy, do we really want him finding his swing, learning 1B, AND pushing Matsui to LF all at the same time.
The present team is on the verge of the best record in baseball without either of them. Matsui at DH is surely an upgrade. The rest of the ripples, from Shef, I'm not convinvced will help more than they hurt.
Someone pointed it out here after the Red Sox sweep -- this team looks fundamentally looser, more confident, and is generally having a lot more fun than any Yankee team since 1996. I wouldn't mess with that at this point.
If Matsui and Sheffield get back to their mashing ways, all Yankee fans will be much better off. That being said, Sheffield is not playing this year and Matsui has a place somewhere in the lineup without disrupting the precious chemistry - so it won't matter.
Post-season is a roll of the dice; I like the Bomber odds but it will take some good luck to win it all. But what else is new?
It seems that Matsui at DH will mostly likely mean greater (>) offense, at least from the left side. A platoon with Bernie could work too.
Shef at 1B could mean greater offense from the 1B slot but less defense than Giambi provides. Plus, Giambi hits better when he plays 1B, so having Shef there could easily work out as a negative if he doesn't offer better defense than Giambi AND hits the ball like old Shef.
All of that says nothing about the effect of defense in having Godzilla in LF. Matsui has to hit much better than .850 OPS (what Melky's giving them now) to make up for the downgrade in defense.
Adding Matsui and Shef is far from assured in scoring more runs than they allow.
I was just addressing the comment that Yanks have clicked after the Sox sweep and the addition of our All Star outfielders would mess that up. I agree with you that the Yanks are playing well now, but they also were romping in run differential in the first month and that was with Mats and Sheff and they were winning enough then either. (and IIRC, the rationale here was that they weren't a "team" and couldn't do the little things in close games)
40
I agree with you. I would also point out that we were supposing Sheff and Matsui hit like they usually do. There's no defense on this team that can compete with a healthy Sheffield. Sheffield will probably not play and if he does, he will be at a reduced capacity which makes his role much less prominent in the postseason plans.
Okay, I'm with you, then.
Yanks win division: 99.91435
Sox win division: .06665
Sox win WC: 1.19935
Sox overall chances: 1.26600
Of interesting note, according to BP, the Mets' odds of winning the NL East are at 99.99935. The only team with a chance at the division, odds at 0.00065, are the Marlins. Girardi's doing some good work, huh?
Supposedly, a a few writers asked Shef about his availability to play this month and responded that he will be ready and that all he needed is 30-35 swings to get into shape. No seriously, he meant that he wouldn't even need to play in any minor league games.
Sterling and Waldman then proceeded to gush over how confident Shef is and how he usually only needs that many swings in Spring Trainning to be in midseason form.
Friends, take that all for what it's worth.
Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together?
Mary: Well, that's pretty difficult to say.
Lloyd: Hit me with it! I've come a long way to see you, Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
Mary: I'd say more like one out of a million.
[pause]
Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.
So if anything he's may still be getting better, not worse.
Therefore, to call Matsui a plus in LF is to assume he does better than Melky. Much greater than .850 OPS would seem to be the threshold to make up for the defense.
I have heard the "there's no such thing as chemistry argument many a time". I don't think you can make an airtight case either way. I admit I can't offer any evidence for "chemistry" other than what my eyes tell me.
BUT -- I will say this. I have played on Championship teams, and I have played on losing teams. One of the teams that won was far from the best team I ever played on, but it did an awful lot of winning anyway.
I remember running into the dugout in the bottom of the 9th, down 1, and guys pounding the dugout roof as they came in saying, "Let's go now...let's get it right here!" And it happened...over and over and over again. Know how guys say, "We always think we're in it"? It was far beyond that. When we came into that dugout, we flat out knew we were going to get 2 and win. Winning can definitely become contagious. Confidence in the people around you can give you strength.
Sheff is definitely an offensive weapon and a half. He's also a defensive liability, and more importantly, he's a whiny, sulky bitch who never put anyone ahead of Gary Sheffield in his entire life. Those kind of guys never build the kind of relationships and confidence with their teammates that guys like Jeter, Giambi and Damon do.
As someone has already mentioned, this team has played its best ball since 7/1 -- all of it without Shef and Matsui. I'm quite content to go into the postseason without either of them -- sitting Melky now, after all the big hits, the surprising assists, the walkoff, after the Manny robbery with Damon jumping up and down like a kid in the background -- that would be a crime. Man, that brought tears to my eyes that night I was so happy for him -- for them -- for all of us.
Tell me honestly you could walk into that dugout in the playoffs and look everyone in the eye if you brought in a lineup card game after game without Melky's name on it? Could you? If you could do that and think your players would respect you for it, then you would make a very poor leader -- in sports, business, war -- in anything.
We do not need another bat to win it all -- we need A-Rod to play like he can play, and we need to be smart, and we need the real Moose and Unit and the Wang, and mostly we need Mariano's magic and a little of that luck that never seemed to run out in 1996. Give me all of those things and keep Sheff -- the little things are worth more than one disgruntled ballplayer whose main concern at present is to come in and do something spectacular at the last minute just so he can get a nice fat contract for next year -- somewhere.
It's actually 6 first basemen this year. Posada had 3 innings at first in one game. grin
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.