Torre says he's the one who told Nick to bunt.

It was a really lousy bunt, though, and Fasano's baserunning was even worse. :-P

I see what Torre was trying to do, I just disagree with the call. And Fasano's base-running gaffe was inexcusable.

The Red Sox will again soon be crashing -- RIGHT DOWN TO THE GROUND!

What's odd is that I was watching the Warren Beatty "Heaven Can Wait" just the other night. (Oddly enough, it was a remake of "Here Comes Mr. Jordan." The earlier "Heaven Can Wait" by Lubitsch was totally unrelated.)

And oh yeah, the Yankees are annoying me right now. We should have opened up a 4 game lead, fer pete's sake.

How the hell does one get "Shawn" outta "Chone?" Growing up in CT, chones were what the Italian kids called those things between your legs. Like, "oh man, I get hit in the chones."

Alex, there is no such thing as a wrong week to quit smoking. Good luck to you!

As for the Yanks, I find myself wondering wtf to do with Arod all the time. Don't gimmie the "MVP last year" and "future Hall of Famer" crappola either. He's been stinking it up at thrid, period. It's an insufferable situation. Where's Greg Nettles at?

7 KBT - I don't understand. We cannot point to his history to say, "He will get his game back together"? He will get his game back together. We all agree he is struggling. I just choose to pull for him. rather than tear him down. It is frustrating for all of us. I'd be curious to hear what we can do to help his ame (by "we", I mean the royal Yankees we).

Kris Wilson had a solid night for Columbus last night. I wonder if they might bring him back up again. The only reason it was Veras instead of Wilson is Wilson wasn't eligible, having just been sent down.

And T-Long was the hero last night, driving in three runs (the winning margin). They interviewed him after the game, and he really doesn't understand why he's in the minors. He thinks his play in the big leagues was fine. He's hoping for a September callup.

Advice for Arod: dump the life coach and quit listening to your wife's "theories." Go out with Giambi one night and get ripped. Don't practice so much. There's such a thing as over-practicing. Show up to the stadium late, maybe a little hungover one night and just let your superhuman natural ability take over. Listen to "Eye of the Tiger" on your Ipod before the game. Do something different, for the love of god!

9 TLong better find a new place to play. He is behind Guiel in the depth chart and probably KT, too. Some people lack self-awareness. Although he didn't play too well for years and had a full-time job to show for it. I guess I don't see a future GM in Long anyway.

Go Yanks!

As a team we have been terrible with runners in scoring position as of late. And Wright is on the mound today. And we're on Fox. Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

10 what makes you think that his problem is his life coach or his wife? I don't know that what works for Giambi would work for ARod.

Dude, I'm being facetious. But I do think he's over-thinking his game. 3 and 4 hour infield workouts? Come on. Too much tweaking it seems to me. Maybe some regression hypno-therapy to take him back to his childhood might help. You know, when baseball was fun and stuff.

13 We don't know if those are the cause, but he needs to try a week without the life coaches and the therapy. Just RELAX is what he needs to do. The lap-dances will be on Giambi.

15 "The lap-dances will be on Giambi."

We all know what you mean, but you couldn't word that better? :P

http://www.moviewavs.com/php/sounds/?id=gog&media=MP3S&type=Movies&movie=Airplane"e=glue.txt&file=glue.mp3

14 he may be overanalyzing. But then, it may be that it was that type of work that made him great. I guess I don't think we have a clue of what is going to fix it. And I imagine that ARod has already considered all of these obvious questions (practice more, practice less, life coach, no life coach, new life coach, get away for an afternoon, get high on crack, etc...). Giambi can have his lap dances, I like the fact that ARod isn't interested in that life style.

In case no one has noticed, Arod has been pretty solid lately. That play at third last night was no gimme. He played it for a higher hop and it stayed low. I am not even sure he had time to get in front on that play. He has been hitting the ball well--even his outs have been well hit--going back to the O's series. I was at the two weekend games there and even though he was 0 for the weekend, at least 3 of his outs were very well hit balls. His defense has been decent and he seems to be hitting his stride at the plate. Arod is not the problem with this team right now.

I pretty much agree on the offense but won't make excuses for the defense. Look, in 4 AB's last night he scalded the ball 3 times. The hardest shot happened to be caught by Figgins. I've got no stat to back it up but it seems that an inordinate amount of his well-hit balls have found gloves this year. The positives are he's seeing the ball better and hitting with authority to right center in the past few games. For a subpar year, he is on pace for some impressive numbers whether you like it or not. And his "meaningless" HR in the 8th turned out to be pretty big in the spectrum of the series. It brought another bat to the plate who reached base and forced Scioscia to use his closer for 4 outs last night. That will play big in a tight game later today and may adversely impact the Halo's in the remaininng 2 games as well. In a game they should have won comfortably, they had to use Shields AND Rodriguez. Those are expensive bullets that were used. Hey, I've been tough on A-rod myself (booed him in June in fact), but it's past the point of booing or cheering. He's certainly NOT the reason they lost last night.

Torre on the other hand I have some questions for:

- Cano and Posada are either available to play or they're not. How can he use Cano in the 9th inning and not in the 7th?

- the bunt is debatable but I didn't like it for 2 reasons: (1) even if successful, it was a momentum killer and handed an easy out to a team that was having problems recording one, and (2) I don't buy sacrificing an out to move the runner over to 3rd so that you can make a 6-3 game a 6-4 game.

- What was the point of using Jose Veras to pitch to 1 batter?

Hey, it bugs me that they lost to Maicer Izturis, Mike Napoli, Robb (2 B's???) Quinlan, Adam Kennedy, Orlando Cabrera (a nice palyer but he bats 3rd in their line-up. 3rd!!!) and yet another pitcher they've never seen before (though he did appear to have hitters off-balance all night from my seat). It seems that no matter what type of season these Angels are having they will perform at peak levels vs. the Yankees. Tip your hat.

By decent you mean air-mailing DP balls into right field? He's 5th in the league in errors. 5th! That's all positions. How many times has Wilson/Phillips come off the bag to snag one his stray throws to first?

Look, I want him to great as much as anybody. But if I screwed up as much as he has at work this year, my ass would be grass.

Maybe a shakeup of the lineup is needed. It's almost a crime that Cano has to bat 7th the way he's hitting. Did he even score after any of those doubles?

We can dance around it all day if we want to, but we all know that what A-Rod needs is a nice handlebar mustache like Rollie Fingers.

This game wasn't on the offense. The pitching just wasn't solid. In any case, the Angels are a team that can play good baseball more often than they don't so I'm not surprised when the Yankees struggle against them. The Yankees need to take the series and then sweep the Os.

I'm with Kyle. A big smarmy moostache is in order. Maybe some porkchops, too.

25 and a spandex uniform like a superhero.

and a cape.

OK, a little creepy now.

I say we give A-Rod like a week off and let T-Bag Long play 3rd and bat 4th. Then, when A-Rod get's back, even if he doesn't play "great", he will seem to be the best 3rd baseman ever.

29 Not a bad idea. We could also send A-Rod down to take his spot. He would probably hit like .700 and hit 10 homers over one week and he'd realize how freaking good he actually is. That would seriously do a lot more good than a life coach and therapy.

20 I think the point was Joe trying to get to trust Veras. Needless to say, it didn't work.

That's why I was wondering if Kris Wilson might be called up again.

Needless to say, if the rest of the line-up was hitting like A-Rod and Cano...well...we might have a 5 game lead right now.
But seriously, they (Yankees) need to start hitting w/RISP. It's lame. All the baserunners in the world, and nobody can drive them in.

17

http://tinyurl.com/ is your friend...

Giambi at 1B, Bernie DHing...

Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez
Jason Giambi 1B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Bernie Williams DH
Melky Cabrera LF

32 And if Arod would field like Jeter and Green did last night...well...we might have a 5 game lead right now.

35 and if he could clutch hit like Ortiz we'd already have at least 180 wins. Maybe it's just me, but being the 2nd best team in baseball isn't so bad (I don't really count the Mets in that I don't really think of them as a team. They're more like "Yankees-lite").

35 True. Well, I'm generally against Bernie hitting VS. righties, especially those with 95 MPH fastballs and filthy splitters like Kelvim Escobar. But Wilson hasn't exactly been hitting righties either. But why is Bernie batting in front of the now-dangerous Melky Cabrera?

36 I'm not upset in the least bit about the Yanks having the second best record in baseball. I just get bothered by the missed opportunities. For months everyone was saying the Red Sox better put away the Yankees while they can...the reverse is now true.

36 I really don't buy into Detroit either. They've done poorly against the Yanks and the Soxes. We won 3 out of 4 at Comerica (we shoulda actually swept if i recall correctly). I keep expecting them to hit a wall but they haven't. I still think they're gonna be a dud in the playoffs.

1. Detroit is .500 against the AL east. I'm not worried.
2. We play 9 more games against Boston this season. More likely than not, that's going to decide the division.

There will be a baseball game somewhere in this broadcast, right? Words cannot describe my hatred for Fox.

41 Ditto...although I do think Jeanne is easy on the eyes.

That may be true but her voice is like fingernails on the chalkboard. What's worse is I've been playing 989's MLB 2K6, and whenever you begin a game she starts shrieking. I've had nightmares about it.

Stop. Comparing. Mo and Paperbore. When was the last time Mo blew three saves in a calendar month?

We get Boston-Baltimore here in D.C. God, I hate Fox.

43 Don't listen to the voice and just drop your eyes a bit.

Niiiice. Lead off walk.

44 Answering my own question, Mo blew 6 of 10 chances between July 25 and August 25, 2003. Of course, there were three blown saves in 2004, but that month has been completely blocked from my memory.

Let's play ball! The Bleacher Creatures are coming in loud and clear. Let's go Yank-ees!

Here we go again. Throw freaking strikes.

Can someone please punch Tim McDoucher in the neck for me? Thanks in advance.

I've decided that one of my goals in life is to inflict bodily harm on Tim McCarver. No Joe Buck though.

Thanks for swinging at ball four, Izturis.

Just get Vlad out.

1-0 Baltimore

McCarver: "Cabrera is batting third because Mike Socia put Izturis in the 2 spot"

Thanks, Tim. That's some stellar logic.

WTF Ump? That was right down the middle.

Wright is having his traditional rough first inning, I see.

And somebody rip that stat sheet from McCarver's clutches. Just take it away from him!

55 Pitching as wildly as Wright is, you're just not going to get those calls.

2-0 Baltimore

Another great throw by Abreu to get out of an ugly inning.

If Arod had dropped that ball there he would have ended up in the bevarge distribution business (for those watchig FOX).

45 Yup. The Nats game isn't until tonight, so I figured we'd be safe to get the Yankee game. I forgot about that disgrace of a franchise up the parkway.

Props to Scoscia for playing the royalty card with Kennedy though. He sits either Kendrick or Quinlan every day just so Kennedy can start at 2B. What an idiot.

Scalding start by our offense there. OK, we can't have Jeter AND Damon slumping at the same time, it's bad for business.

63 Guy's got range though. I've been watching Kennedy since he played for the Short-A New Jersey Cardinals way back in 1997. Had some solid seasons, but yeah, .668 OPS is not gonna cut it.

Come Wright! Only one walk this inning!
Jaret {bump bump}
Wriiiight {bump bump}

7 pitches vs 22.

It's going to be a long day.

Is it me, or is this ump squeezing the zone a bit.

65 .668 ops? That clinches it. He's sure to hit at least 1 homer vs us this series.

69 He probably will. And then he'll hit for the cycle. I HATE the Angels. Why won't a meteror fall on their team bus?

62 Worse, Jerry Remy's one of the announcers, so the game might as well be on NESN.

Did Curtis Pride score the winning run or get the winning hit against the Red Sox in July 2003? I remember the winning hit should have been an error, but I don't remember if Pride hit it or was the one who scored.

I had forgotten that Curtis Pride was on the Angels. One of Pride's few games with the Yanks was the pitchers' duel between Mussina and Pedro in July 2003. I was there in the upper deck and was glad to show up the Boston fans up there when Pride won the game with an infield single.

McCarver just called the 36 year old Pride a "young man."

72 Drove in the winning run by reaching on an error.

http://tinyurl.com/ro4tf

Why is McCarver talking about Varitek and Mirabelli?

73 thanks

Was that the game where Pedro plunked Sori and Jeter to start the game and they both left in the same ambulance?

If the Angels' bus was vaporized, Cashmoney wouldn't be able sign Vlad in 5 years after he's peaked for 8 billion dollars.

72 Heh, I'm glad we both thought about that game. Pride hit the ball, Matsui scored the run.

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07070NYA2003.htm

What? More boos when there's players on base??? What is McCarver talking about???

75 Yes it was, and the mood in the upper deck was aggravating, as all the Boston fans had bought cheap seats around where I was sitting. Watching Byun-Hung Kim blow another game at the Stadium was good therapy.

Does anyone else like Ken Rosenthal. I think he's good. I like his articles and he's seems quite fair.

Uh-oh, there's a runner on third now, we're screwed.

Papi would have scored on that hit...

80 Yeah, he's fairly solid.

Good Lord, is that the worst mustache since Adam Morrison, or what?

71
If Remy announced for a different team, he'd be my favorite color guy in baseball. He's interesting, funny and not pretensious. He just roots for the wrong team.

That was a horrid swing. Come on Robbie..

84 I agree. Remy is good. I'd like to hear him in the booth with Kaat.

Crushed it.

Sweet!

Can-yes!

Don't You Know - Robbie Cano!

Cano should bottle that swing and sell it.

Thank the Lord for Robinson Cano

Posada hitting an abysmal .125 vs Escobar in 32 abs.

Torre puts Bernie on the field b/c he's got a 2 for 3 track record against some guy, but he can't drop Jorge in the order with a track record like that?

Or, godforbid, have played him yesterday when Cano was sitting and sat him today?

Go Robbie!

For those who listen on MLB audio, how long would you say the delay is? My estimate is 45 seconds.

84 86 Remy's good, but in my mind he's associated with Red Sox broadcasts, and the severe Boston accent makes ignoring that impossible.

I step out for a 2nd and Cano hits a 3-Run BOMB. Nice.

The HR Melky's been hitting seem to have resulted in much more Ks.

Does Damon have a new helmet, cause it sure is sitting on his head funny the last couple of games...ala Joey Cora.

Psst, Melky, Jorgie whiffed on the same pitch.

Ding!

Must be the helmet.

Woot, pour it on guys!

Bingo!

John- ny Base-ball.

John- ny Base-ball.

This is more like it. :)

Escobar is losing it.

Damon's career high is 20 homers, that was his 16th of this season.

2-1 Baltimore.

105 Short Porch'D!

After the emergence of Papelblownsave, Nixon's injury is the best thing to happen to the Red Sox all year.

Escobar's splitter must look tasty, cuz those were some ugly SOs.

Technically, that stat that Fox put up comparing Damon this year and Yankee CF's last year was wrong - Damon hit 2 of his homers this year at DH.

This lead is NOT Jaret-proof. Start warming Villone now.

Since when is making a one handed catch in baseball all that remarkable? Did anyone catch that?

Man that guy was a good pickup.

108 Despite the fact that Pena's better, ESPN and RSN will use the absence of Nixon as an excuse for the Sawx.

111 Torre wasted Villone for 2 innings yesterday down 7-3 (or 4).

Cano is as smooth as whipped butter. He reminds me a lot of Manny Trillo.

I honestly think Izturis was on crack when he took that picture

HA! That Burger King commercial on Fox with the NASCAR theme was pretty freakin funny.

115 Ah, that's right. So, Wright till the 5th, then 2 Proctor, 1 Farns, 1 Mo, or 1, 1, 2 depending on the score.

119 If the game stays 5-1 or thereabouts, maybe Veras goes an inning.

A-Rod goes to Mo's!

A-rod hitting to right center consistently is HUGE!

Cue someone saying when Arod goes to rightcenter he's on.

122 Ha!

A-Rod has been hitting for a week now. That's a GOOD THING. Yay!

That hits vs. rbis grafic condemned both players.

Tejada just threw away an easy ground ball.

Holy Shit! The Angels OWN Yankee Stadium! Damn.

Wow, yeah. But how many other teams have only ONE opponent with a > .500 record in their stadium. That's pretty incredible too.

The Orioles' right fielder (Markakis) has a Bernie-esque arm.

God Damn it Po!!!
WTF?!

Great throw from Conine; Sox don't score.

"When taking Flomax, avoid situations when injuries could occur."

That's pretty solid advice for all people, not just those on bladder control medicine...

Man, batting Posada before Cano is definitely looking like a big mistake right now

Posada now with a .118 avg vs Escobar in 34 abs.

Remind me again why he sat last night, giving us that powerpacked lineup with Sally and Greenie at the bottom, instead of today?

Sounds of the game??? Someone want to translate that for me?

133 Priceless.

135 He hit the ball hard. Unfortunately, it was right at somebody.

I know its small sample size, but Cano's August OPS is 1.625. That just makes me smile.

Posada didn't ground into a DP in his first 169 at bats; in his last 158, he's grounded into 6. I'm not sure if that's meaningful.

I'm absolutely terrible with statistics (the Stat 101 kind, not the baseball kind). Where's that guy who was talking about Poisson distributions the other day? What are the chances that a career .269 hitter goes .118 in 34 at bats against a given pitcher? I'm guessing its a relatively likely scenario given the small sample.

133 So no bullfighting on flomax? Oh well.

"when using flomax, avoid situations where wetting yourself is looked down upon."

141 I don't know what the exact numbers are, but the standard deviation in 34 ABs has got to be pretty high. Remember, 68% of all results are within one standard deviation of the mean, and 95% are within two. So its entirely likely. Statistically speaking, you shouldn't start believing results until they are well over 100 ABs.

o's 5 - boston 1

5-1 Orioles. Jason Johnson isn't long for this game.

143 Since when is wetting yourself looked down upon? Not in my neighborhood.

2 seconds late. jerk.

147 If peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.

I'd imagine that YFiC was making the point in 135 that if Torre is going to go by matchups, then sitting today would make more sense. But still its been fairly proven that hitter/pitcher matchups don't really mean much. Its nice to see that Bernie Williams is now 4 for 5 lifetime against Escobar, but that basically means that if Williams were given another 100 AB, he'd probably get only 20 or so more hits.

BOO Brian Roberts!

If you're Miles...I'm Chuch Berry.

Wright is around 50 pitches through 4, anyone feel he should try for 6-7 innings?

Did I just right Chuch?!?

Did I just write right?!? Man I think I'm on crack today.

148 Damn. At least I added some information.

141 Some quick Excel work found that there's about a 2% chance that a .269 hitter will get 3 or fewer hits in 34 ABs against a given pitcher.

154 Its still pronounced the same, like Chone and Shawn. Or Krzyzewski and "Sheh-Shef-Ski."

156 Ugh, that should be 4 hits, and about 5%.

153 Whenever I start to feel that way he goes and throws 35 pitches or so in an inning, so we'll see.

156 So that either means that 1) Posada will "regress" towards the mean and start getting hits of Escobar, or 2) Escobar has something that Posada can't handle. Given the evidence across all players, all time, that the Baseball Prospectus people put together, I'd side with explanation #1.

I feel like I'm in a math class

D'oh. He was safe initially, but slid well past the bag.

Man, A-Rod really needs to give the rest of the team "Sliding into Second Lessons"

Oh, I'm sorry FOX, I didn't know I was watching a Red Sawx game....

156 What are you using to figure out the standard deviation?

165 I didn't calculate any standard deviation, I just used the POISSON function in excel.

Look, I just don't see the point of walking the dangerous Curtis Pride.

167 Hey the man is batting .500!!

I'm guessing this will be Wright's 35 or so pitch inning I talked about earlier.

Um, I don't think Kendrick looks anything like Keyshawn. Is FOX saying that all black players look alike?

169 Yo, that's messed up!

167 Don't forget the .322 OBP of Adam Kennedy

168 Good call on that. I forgot that this was Jaret Wright

Wright is just an infuriating pitcher sometimes.

I think Jose Molina looks like Bengie Molina.

I uploaded the Excel file here, if anyone wants to take a look:

http://tinyurl.com/s866j

The worst thing about that bit is that it was so forced. The Fox producers picked it out of their box of tricks and had it like it was Dick Stocken's own call. Fortunately, Stocken is the ultimate pro and pulls such jazz off without a hitch.

Come on, Jaret, don't choke your chicken here, dog.

Got to get Figgy.

Now, when I get hit on the arm with a 90 mph fastball, I protest if I'm not given first base. Maybe Jose had to pee and wanted to get back to the clubhouse.

174 I dunno, I was thinking he looked like Yadier Molina myself.

166 You can't do it that way. Its true that a Poisson might be more accurate than a Guassian, but you need to look at a set of similar hitters, i.e. a sample set. The way you set it up is, lets say we have 100 hitters, who after about 500 ABs all have a BA of about .250. Then you go back and ask, over 30 ABs, what are their averages? From there you can calculate the variance or standard deviation (square root of the variance) and about 68% of all hitters in that class will fall within .250 +- standard deviation.

Looking it up in a book, the standard deviation for 20 ABs is about .105 (this is for wOBA, but lets assume its a reasonable number for BA). That means a .250 hitter could be hitting as low as .145 or so. 4/34 is .117, so for that small a sample size Posada is an outlier, but he's not far off. These numbers are rough since I don't have the time to really look them up in detail, but the point is there I hope?

Dude, Wright, Get someone out here.

I guess what I'm saying is that all Molinas look alike.

Well, that certainly could have been worse. He's tough to watch but weasels his way out of a lot of jams.

Wright falls behind Figgins, 2-1. He's already walked two men in the inning. Fastball, outside, 3-1. Wright is a dog...c'mon. Gator gets on the horn...Fastball, over the plate, up just enough: Figgens fouls it off. The crowd gets up and starts to make some noise. Proctr is up in the pen. Runners go, full count pitch: fastball, up and away, fouled back. Sinker skied to left. The sun is rough out there and the ball is more of a line-fly than a pop-up. Melky shades his eyes from the sun with his glove, stutters a bit, but makes the catch for the third out of the inning.

Attsa fine.

Will Wright be back for the 6th?

We actually got Figgins out!

I hope Joe lets him start the 6th at least. A 4 run lead is not Wright-proof, but it's still fairly big.

181 Following up, the Poisson vs. Gaussian will basically tell you that its not really 68% within one standard deviation, etc. I'm not a statistician so I can't remember the details off the top of my head in terms of specific numbers.

Just looking at a Poisson can't be right, you haven't put in any input except for one batter, which you can draw no statistical conclusions from.

188 oops, should have been referring to 180, sorry.

186 He actually got himself out. Swung at ball 4. FOX panned to Scioscia in the dugout, he clapped his hands and said "Come on Figgy, ball 4..." (or something like that).

187 Only 73 pitches so far. Torre will give him some more rope.

180 188 I defer to your knowledge here. The original question 141 referred to a Poisson distribution, and I just did a quick one.

FWIW, Posada has struck out in 19 of his 34 AB against Escobar, so I would say there's something there.

http://tinyurl.com/rp7kk

175, 180 Thanks for all the work, my apologies to the rest of the board for bringing up math on a Saturday afternoon.

Ugh. Jeter at .341

O's 5 Sox 3, top 6.

Come on A-Rod, if Superman can lift a Kryptonite island and hurl it into space, you can do something here.

194 He's been tired since he got to Chicago. Unfortunately, there will be no days off for the Capt.

Sigh. McCarver is a dunce.

After correcting himself, he is right though, Juan Rivera is a solid baseball player. I will say it again: I would rather have Juan Rivera, Nick Johnson, Dioneer Navarro, Brad Halsey, and possibly Carlos Beltran rather than Randy Johnson...

Hit it HARDER, A-rod...

Damn It.

This is getting comical

WTF! Have none of these guys heard of a sac fly? They are working my last nerve now.

unreal

202 Well, wouldn't it just be a stat-padding sac fly? Is it odd to be on your last nerve when the good guys have a 4 run lead?

192 No worries. Think of it this way, lets start with a Gaussian (a Possion will be very similar). To specify it, we need basically two numbers, where the peak is (the mean) and how sharply peaked it is (the spread). So the number you were missing when you did your Excel analysis must have been the spread (or standard deviation). You, or Excel, probably just picked that number randomly.

193 Its ok, I was unproductive at work all this week (stress from both moving to NYC and having to fly in a couple of weeks) so at least I did something this week.

Bases loaded, 1 out for Baltimore.

205 Which number did I or Excel pick randomly?

204 Good guys? When did the Yankees become the White Sox?

206 And everyone's favorite, Julian Tavarez on the mound!

207 I think I'm starting to get it... Excel picked a random standard deviation- a better way to do it would be to simiulate 100 (or 10000) iterations of 34 at bats by a .250 hitter, to get a spread of data points. Then you can calculate probabilities.

Yay! Julian "Hitler" Tavarez in with bases juiced over Bahston, O's up 5-3 and looking for more.

204 It's hard to find it stat-padding after last week's game against Chicago. We had a 7 run lead with a guy throwing a no-hitter, and we only won by one. Every run really does count sometimes

Wright only threw 83 pitches any particular reason that he can't keep pitching?

That was giving an error just to give an error.

A-rod had a tough hop on that one. What he needs to correct is his instinct to drop to his knees on the low hot shots (which he does all the time). Once you drop, you're committed and there's no way to get in front of the ball. That was laced though.

208 I've started to incorporate Hawkisms into my every day life. For example: the guys who cut me off on the highway are the "bad guys" while the ones that flash their lights and let me in are the "good guys." And when I get a girl's number at the bar, I scream "You can put it on the boooooooooard... YES!"

Its going to sweep the country, you wait.

207 I haven't looked at it, but since you specified the BA (the peak) I'm guessing the spread in the equation. If you are looking at a Gaussian it looks like

\exp ( { x - x_0}^2 \ s)

here x_0 is the mean and s is the spread. Generally speaking, the larger the sample size the more sharply peaked the Gaussian will be. This makes sense, if I do a million measurements I can specify my results to a very good accuracy. If I do three, I can't really say anything.

That help you at all?

216 How does the girl react after you scream that?

I don't like where this is going.

207 There's no standard deviation involved in the Poisson calculation.

210 Precisely! Or better yet, look up real life date on a set of similar hitters. For every Jorge with a 4/34 there is a similar .269 hitter with a 16/34.

7-3 Baltimore

Brian Roberts 2-out, 2-rbi single. 7-3, O's.

Ah damn, this won't end well.

So, let's see - if Proctor gets Pride, all the Halo's did was get a lot excercise this inning.

Or Posada could just pick-off Vlad (unforgivable btw)...

212 I was being sarcastic, I don't have much patience for those who claim there can be "stat padding" You're right that every run counts, each run is equal, no matter what inning it is. That said, A-Rod's GIDP is disappointing, but being really aggravated about it seems odd when the Yankees have a fair lead.

On the bullpen use today, I reference my prediction in 119

PoPo may be struggling offensively, but he's THE BALLS on deffense.

216 So when does "He gone!" get used?

Geez, what a break.

227 My bad, hard to see sarcasm online sometimes

220 Yes there is:

f(k, \lambda) = { e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k \over k!}

(! is factorial here). The standard deviation is \lambda. In this case, \lambda is also the mean so you have assumed that the standard deviation and the mean are the same. That's the fundamental assumption of a Poisson distribution. So the fact that you assumed it was a Poisson distribution was where you assumed what the spread was. See?

217 If there were only 3 AB, there'd be a 44.6% chance that Posada would get no hits (the closest to a .118 BA). That clearly would be meaningless. But a .118 BA with 30 AB has more meaning.

FWIW, here is an Excel file containing Posada's stats vs. EVERY MLB pitcher. It looks like Posada's biggest troubles come against hard-throwing righties with some kind of sinking pitch.

http://tinyurl.com/zcza9

Cano = Ty Cobb.

Cano might have been safe, but the same could be said of Vlad.

Cano can be forgiven though

Rancho Cucomonga. Just rolls off the tongue, doesn't it?

Adam Kennedy? WTF?

7-5 Baltimore now, Pena with a 2-run triple.

So, Jose Molina can hit a Sac Fly, but the likes of A-Rod, Giambi, Jeter, Posada, Abreu, or Damon can't?

Is it me, or did Abreu's throw look Damon-esque, bouncing on the baseline. It looked like was going to throw it hard, but that was not the result.

Tied in Boston. The Fox announcers are openly rooting for them.

241 Neither is a surprise. Oreos SUCK!

All tied up 7-7 now, Mirabelli hit one.

4 SBs for Halos. Assholes.

244 Apparently they didn't watch the video of the White Sox series. Then again, the Angels' runners seem to be much faster, Posada isn't even trying to throw them out.

I thought that Leo Mazzone was supposed to work his magic on the Os' pitching?

Nothing like the O's to bring a "dead" team right back

Craig "Phenom" Hansen in. Oreos have a chance.

Melky Cabrera is my homeboy.

246 Guess what? The Braves were good because they had Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, not because Mazzone was whispering sweet nothings in their ears. He is a good pitching coach and can probably make a good pitcher better, but there's only so much you can do with people like Bruce Chen, Kris Benson and Chris Britton. Either than that, or Mazzone is distracted by Mrs. Benson.

Melky's SLG% going up every day.

The first base umpire was so excited to call Melvin Mora out that he almost punched him in the face.

Dude, WTF is up with Jeter?!

Will someone get a hit with a runner on 3rd?!

Curtis Pride thinks the Fox announcer sound great but I don't agree and think they suck...

253 He's tired.

If we lose this game, everyone will blame A-Rod for his error. Jeter is now 0-4 with 2Ks. I'm not suggesting we boo Jeter, but I am suggesting the morons who blame A-Rod have no idea what they are talking about. If A-Rod was 0-4 with 2Ks it'd be all anyone was talking about.

257 lose? aren't we still up by 3?

Alright Kyle, just throw 1.0 x 10^2 mph

Farnsworth's velocity is back up to 100+

258 I think he means literally, IF we lose. But we pretty much should have this wrapped up.

258 Yes, I just said if. I was making the point that lots of things have to go wrong to lose a game, but people always focus on A-Rod. It was a rant, I couldn't resist, sorry.

The Yanks are going to have to use a 6th starter for the Red Sox series....that means Ponson gets a start.....scary

Afternoon... just go in.
Freakin' Fox is showing the Sox here in NH. I'm bummed.

Looks like Wright was good and threw 83 pitches? Why was he taken out.

Is Jetes slumping?

Does the O's pitching suck?

Looks like Cano is today's hero, so far.

tommyl, I think you're wrong about the Poisson treatment. It gives you the probability of observing n instances (e.g. hits) given an expectation (e.g., k hits in a set of ABs) - it comes with its own statistical uncertainty built in, so I think the original analysis was ok (up to the question of pitcher X vs ensemble P).

Oh, never mind, on preview I see you said that.

SHUT UP McCarver, those were NOT MOCK CHEERS!!!

264 Wright was typical Wright.

Jeter is slumping b/c he's tired and is due for a rest he won't get. Dog days of August...

The O's suck in general.

That kid can HIT!

262 Oh ok i get what you're saying. I guess i'm used to the negative tone everyone has had the past couple of days

McCarver really does suck...I never liked Deion Sanders but the more I listen to McCarver the more I wish Sanders kicked him in the head after dousing him in the locker room a few years back

What are the odds of the O's coming back in Fenway....100-1 or so ?

The thought of Cano and Melky in 2-3 years just makes me giddy. I really hope we hang onto them

I dislike McCarver, but I only truly hate him when he's paired with Joe Buck. They bring out the worst in each other.

The Orioles brought in a pitcher with a 16.20 to pitch to Ortiz. Let's see if this works.

They will not trade either of them...they are both kids making MLB minimums....they need them to balance the money Pavano, Wright and the Big Mullet are stealing

It does - flyout to center.

The O's are trying to round the kids ERA up to an even 20.00 ?

I see (ugh) Phillips in. Everything OK with Giambi? Cano's OPS is .840, but only .640 with RISP. Good day for him to turn it around.

Jorge in a minor slump. Let's go JORGE!!

Does anyone in here expect Matsui, Sheff or Dotel to make it back and contribute ? With no minor league games to rehab in and the Yanks in a death battle to make the playoffs I do not see where these guys get game ready in September ?

273 When are players eligible for arbitration?

another run or two would give Mo the day off hopefully

276 He really didn't hit for much power though before he went down. There was a stretch of like 2 months where he didn't homer. Now he seems like a different animal.

And we still can't get a hit w/RISP. This is KILLING ME! Can SOMEBODY, ANYBODY on this team get a hit w/RISP?!

1 pitch, 1 out.

279 Players are arbitration-eligible after 3 full years of major league service time, though a select few are eligible after 2-plus. Cano will likely be arbitration-eligible after 2007, while Cabrera will be eligible likely after 2008.

Shefsui: It's mid August and neither can catch a ball or swing a bat. Do not count on them for a while. I doubt they can have a major impact... but you never know.

285 Thanks

284, rather

Ump doesn't call a perfect pitch to Manny on 1-2, but he strikes out on the next pitch anyway.

284 So the question is: should Cashman wrap these guys up early a la Jose Reyes and David Wright?

Should definately wrap up Cano. Melky, who knows?

Mannys hit streak looks over...someone will have to explain it to him

Alright. Now lets go LaTroy Hawkins!

Smashing! Quick inning. Mo eligible to pitch tmrw and no more McCarver for week!

Let's go O's...

Screw that. We Win!

alright...now it is time to look for an O's miracle in Boston

alright...now it is time to look for an O's miracle in Boston

Ditto

Pena K's. Headed to the 9th, with 1-2-3 due up for Baltimore.

Pena's neck is wider than his head.

As long as there is NO no-trade clause, I'd lock up both Cano and Melky. Cano is a keeper. If Melky can play CF and continues to mature, I see no reason why he won't stay with the team.

Wow Pena needs a single for the cycle

FOX sucks...I got to listen to Brenly or whoever that tard is ...talk about looking out for the Jays at 7 1/2 back...they are getting hot but the Yanks were left for dead at the break at 3 back....a-holes

On comes Paperboy..

Pena is a better player than Nixon so they did not really lose there...

Come on Orioles, do something!

DIAF Jeanne Zelasko. DIAF Kevin Kennedy.

C'mon Pape', time to give it up again......

Double down the left-field line, Fahey idiotically tries to stretch it into a triple. 2 outs, 0 on.

Meanwhile, on ESPN2, cheerleaders...

Boston is terrible in xtra innings this season....

Check that, track and field. Booo.

Inning over.

Why is Brandon Fahey batting 2nd for the O's. Can they possibly find a worse, weaker, and smaller player to bat 2nd in their line-up?

And he hits a double, and gets thrown out. Idiot.

Ortiz and Manny are a combined 0 for 6, and Boston still manages to score 7? O's suck...

Commercial for next week's game on Fox, verbatim: "MVP favorite Big Papi battles Jeter and the hated Yankees." God, I hate Fox.

Inning over. The Orioles pretty much need to score in their half of the 10th, with Ortiz and Manny due up in the bottom.

314 And somehow, FOX Sports themselves say that they hate on the Red Sawx too much.

I can't believe I'm saying it, but...come on Tejada!

315 Basically, the Orioles have already lost this. Useless, good-for nothing waste of a baseball team.

I just can't take another "Papi wins it" headline. COME ON Os!

Bruce Chen, who has given up 24 HR in 84-2/3 innings, is warming up alongside Chris Ray in the Baltimore bullpen. Not good.

Homer Boston umps suck ass.

shit, they're not even making bonbon throw a lot of pitches

Inning over.

"Son, I can't overstate the importance of getting out Loretta here."

I guess there's about a 1/8 chance this will go beyond this inning now.

Fox manages to miss the first pitch of the bottom of the 10th. It's not like anything important could have happened.

Well, this game is done. Either Ortiz or Manny will hit one out. Unless Chris Ray has cancer, I don't see why Chen is in there, but oh well.

Chen walks Loretta. I'm glad Chris Ray is being held back for a potential save situation that will never occur.

A walk. Perfect.

make that a 1/12 chance this inning will be extended

Bruce Chen looks like a cartoon.

i feel a double play coming on....

Another walk.

make that a 1/40 chance

man that guy is clutch

This is so awesome.

I have no idea why Chen is still in here, with 6 righties due up.

well, if they are going to lose at least they killed papi's streak

Single to left, and the LF botches it. Game over.

I just threw up in my mouth a little.

Thanks Orioles. I hope you all go to hell. Assholes.

Quick poll:

Who do you hate more, Papi or Manny?

Manny. I don't like the whole "Papi hits a 6 run homer every time he steps up to the plate" thing, but he seems like a nice enough guy.