Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The good news is that, with the Red Sox having lost their first two games to the Royals, the Yankees could lose tonight and still finish the three-game stretch in which they played the defending World Champs while their rivals played the worst time in baseball without having lost a game in the standings.
The bad news is this trend I just noticed in Mike Mussina's game log:
First 12 GS: 7-1, 2.42 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 1.43 BB/9, 7.16 H/9, 0.96 WHIP, 0.99 HR/9, 12 QS, 6.81 IP/GS
Last 12 GS: 6-3, 4.65 ERA, 8.29 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 8.67 H/9, 1.20 WHIP, 1.13 HR/9, 6 QS*, 5.97 IP/GS
*would likely have been seven, but he was forced out of his June 30 game after allowing no hits over four innings because of a long rain delay
The more than two extra runs per game (!) seem to be the result of his increased number of baserunners. Moose has been getting hit harder and more often, and that might be the result of a slight loss of command that has also inflated his walk rate (though note that his K rate has also increased). More runners mean more pitches and more pitches and more runs mean fewer innings and a bigger strain on the bullpen.
Now compare that bottom set of numbers to what Moose did over the 2004 and 2005 seasons:
57 GS: 25-17, 4.50 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 9.85 H/9, 1.35 WHIP, 1.18 HR/9, 28 QS, 6.04 IP/GS
So much for Moose having discovered the secret to late-career success. Not that he's a bad pitcher, but he is a league average one, though with a great K/BB rate and the ability to go on a dominant run like he did in Septemer 2004 or the first two months of this season. Still, the Yankees would be wise to bear this in mind when making a decision about his 2007 option this fall. Given the other options, it's likely worth overpaying Moose for a year to keep his reliability in the rotation, but he'll be 39 in November 2007. I wouldn't give him a multi-year deal at this point.
That 12-12 split in Moose's season falls conveniently at June 1. Check out what happens when you divide the season of his mound opponent in tonight's game the same way:
through June 1: 6-3, 3.86 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9, 1.10 WHIP, 10 GS, 7 QS, 6.53 IP/GS
since June 1: 4-3, 6.45 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 1.52 WHIP, 11 GS, 2 QS, 6.12 IP/GS
That split sure looks a lot like what we all saw from Javy back in 2004, don't it? In reality, Vazquez in April and June of 2004 was even better than he was in April and May of this year, but he was every bit as bad in the season's other four months.
Of course, despite that bottom split above, Vazquez dominated the Blue Jays in his most recent start to the tune of 8 IP, 2 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 13 K. The consolation there being that without those numbers he was even worse in June and July. Here's hoping Home Run Javy shows his true colors tonight as the Yankees look to take the rubber game and finish the season with a 5-1 record against the defending World Champs.
Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jason Giambi DH
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Craig Wilson 1B
Melky Cabrera LF
Mike Mussina RHP
Continuing yesterday's theme of using movie quotes to describe how we feel about the game:
"Its 106 miles to Chicago. We have a full tank of gas, a half pack of cigarettes, it's dark, and we're wearing sunglasses. Hit it."
Confusing.
Not Chris Berman!
I don't hate him and don't wish bad health on him, but I can't say I'm missing him too much. I like him just where he's at. I find Gammons to be very unobjective. I like Olney and Kurkjian, but I don't think Gammons is like any of them.
Nice start for KC
9:10 first pitch.
Cliff: how you think we should handle Moose in the off season though? pick up option? reconstruct contract? let him go? he's been great this year, but 17M is A LOT to pay for a pitcher that have been mediocare in 2 of this last 3 years and is quickly approaching 40.
Rest of team: 0-8
I switched to red wine. The rb + v's were too much for a thursday night.
I hear that, it will be nice to rough him up. At least he had half a good season for the Yanks.
Baaaaaaaaseball.
Is it ALL youth?
Oh, no. I can hear the commotion in Bristol from out here...
We make Javy Vasquez throw 45 pitches over the first 2 innings and come away with zero. Moose has 1st blood drawn against him.
Just a bad omen. Let's go fellas. Snap your asses out if it and play ball!
Damn It. Knobby is back.
ESPN has their lead story for the next two weeks.
We...uh...we are not winning this I can see....
Just go home boys. You don't want to be there. You can hit the MISERABLE Vazquez, you can't make routine plays. JUST GO HOME.
We need to win this baby 7-5.
Go Yanks.
A-Rod, Shut Up, and HIT A HOME-RUN.
Lord knows he's not the only one who screwed up this inning, but we all know who's going to get the bulk of the ink (and phosphors). Don't get me wrong, I'm glad he's on the team, but boy, am I suffering A-Rod exhaustion.
Wrote that before server hiccup #2
Missed it be half a foot.
That's A-Rod.
Runner 3rd, < 2 out, 2006
32 AB, 8 H, 2 HR, 21 RBI, .250/.306/.469
Take the small sample size for what you will. I suggest looking at the archives of this blog and others, for the myriad "A-rod: clutch?" articles that are around.
The Royals have EIGHT doubles and a homer tonight and only 3 runs.
GIAMBI!
Remember this post when it's over.
I didn't think that would carry!
Nice job, Jason!
How ya like me now? ;)
And then another run scores when the leftfielder over runs a single.
You the man.
He'll flip the switch against Boston or something and ride another hot streak, but it's hard to find a really good at bat for him in weeks.
The Yankees offense finds your lack of faith.... disturbing.
Mike's gonna keep us in this.
We're gonna win it.
Anyway, it's a ballgame and Vasquez has thrown 66 pitches over 3. That's nice.
Nice sequence, Mike.
32 AB, 3 BB, 21 RBI = 21 RBI in 35 PA
Of course some of those RBIs might be from additional runners on second or first. We know just two of them are him driving himself in on home runs, so 19 RBI in 35 PA not counting additional runs from second or first, still, looks like he gets the job done close to half the time, which in baseball is pretty good, isn't it? We'd need to know what's typical to know if that's any good, really.
32 AB, 3 BB, 21 RBI = 21 RBI in 35 PA
Of course some of those RBIs might be from additional runners on second or first. We know just two of them are him driving himself in on home runs, so 19 RBI in 35 PA not counting additional runs from second or first, still, looks like he gets the job done close to half the time, which in baseball is pretty good, isn't it? We'd need to know what's typical to know if that's any good, really.
Nice job, Melky.
KC sweeps the Red Sox, and does it late in every ballgame. SportsCenter should do a 2 week retrospective on those clutch hitting Royals.
How soon before Francona is fired? I'm serious. Any thoughts on him being ousted? He's hitting Crisp leadoff and f-ing up their whole offense. Their bullpen is sh!t right now, and they have little reliable starting pitching, but Francona has been managing with his eyes closed and the fans in Red Sox Nation are demanding a head. I say get rid of Francona.
No, but I was at the one game we did lose...two hour rain delay, come back in the bottom of the 9th, down 1, 1st and 3rd, 1 out, Giambi hits into DP. Made sitting thru the rain delay really worth it.
Very professional.
Youkilis is made to leadoff for the Sox. Francona is stuck in that old school "speed at the top of the lineup" crap.
Tough take, Alex.
That's what I don't understand.
Why did we swing at that changeup in the dirt but not at the previous one on the outside corner?
Just missed down and away.
Very nice.
It's up to you, Jason.
:)
Oh how sweet it is....
Now, A-Rod seems to be more consistently locked in. He's been hitting the last couple of days, and the out he made tonight was a long one. VERY GOOD for us.
Make 'em pay Giambi.
Just can't believe it.
STOP LEAVING MEN ON BASE!!!
That's NINE in FOUR INNINGS!!!
I want him to go 1-2-3 to get the win, and save the pen from having to string together 6 innings. I'd leave him in until 120 pitches or 2 runs, whichever comes 1st.
Lets's take the lead now.
I'm amazed how much you guys dislike Javy. I figured you all just thought he wasn't any good, I didn't realize you disliked him. I mean, he pitched terribly in the second half of '04, gave up a ton of home runs, and Torre brought him into a no-outs bases loaded situation against a lefty in Yankee Stadium and you blame Vazquez for the Grand Slam, not Brown or Torre? That's rough.
I liked Javy and didn't blame him at all for the GS. I am just curious why he was so good in Montreal and hasn't been able to regain that form.
They are such a bunch of pansies it's incredible.
Vasquez is by far not the worst of our recent gambles. (Pavano, Brown, etc...)
He's still an easy scapegoat, Cliff. And you know what F-him. ;)
Par for the course.
:)
The 6th is the inning that we put this thing to bed. White Sox bullpen, start praying now.
Since A-Rod is forever linked to these two players
David Ortiz:
20 AB, 7 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 19 RBI
Derek Jeter
27 AB, 11 H, 0 HR, 5 BB, 22 RBI
But both players are haivng better overall seasons than A-Rod, so any improvement is not surprising.
For fun, Adrian Beltre:
15 AB, 5 H, 0 HR, 5 BB, 12 RBI
Aaron Boone:
17 AB, 6 H, 0 HR, 2 BB, 10 RBI
David Wright
24 AB 12 H 1 HR, 2 BB, 24 RBI
Miguel Cabrera
27 AB, 9 H 0 HR, 7 BB, 21 RBI
Alex Rodriguez
32 AB, 8 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 21 RBI
So there you go.
If he would have done anything else, I may not blame him. He immediately comes in and shits the game to hell.
The grand slam, the other homerun, the FIVE walks, he buried that team.
And then he copped an effing attitide when they rightfully ship his ass out.
293 Why? It's not his fault how he's perceived. Vazquez never came in and said he was here to be the ace, why take it out on him? Why not blame Cashman, it was his trade.
294 I think 9:30.
(And he still has that stupid look on his face)
Whoever it is should call the dugout from the bullpen phone and start coughing. You know the "fake call-in sick" routine.
"Uh, yeah. This is Riske...hack..wheeze... I'm not feeling so well today. I think I'm going to stay hom..gurgle..home."
Ozzie Guillen: "Hey. Jackass. I can see you out there on the bullpen camera. Get your ass in gear. Pendejo."
I'm with you Cliff. Just teasing. ;)
Nice breaking ball to get Dye.
This game pisses me off. When the hell did Dr. Claw ever get Inspector Gadget? This is what Javy did. He left with that lame supervillain speech and vowed to "show us" and HE DID.
Lightning strikes.
So be it. The moment of your doom is here. Pray that you have atoned for your past transgressions. Enter: Yankees Hell.
But all of these are general trends in every situation. I would assume this would apply to every situation, in the long run. So the reason A-Rod doesn't get many sac flies is that he's not making as much contact, and when he does its on the ground more often than other seasons.
Vasquez failed, but that's sports. He was overrated then, and now people have a better perspective on what he is. A back of the rotation pitcher in the AL that will eat innings, strike guys out on occasion, and hopefully hold down the fort over 30+ starts.
Oh hey, when I finally looked up from my statistics, there was actually a game going on. How bout that?
Second coming of David Justice.
At least a sac fly.
Please don't GIDP, Alex.
He's going to get that runner home. Watch.
326 Appointed savior, yes, and he should have been (he may have failed like he did with the Mets last year, but he should have been cast in the role).
We need to score at least 4 runs here, seriously.
How about that?
33 AB, 8 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 21 RBI
What a fucking fiasco.
No run scores, and now no more Abreu.
Un-fucking-acceptable!
Guillen was thrown out.
I must be high, I heard "Abreu."
Weaver leaving was great, but Kevin Brown was a 40 year old guy with serious back problems. He'd missed a lot of time in 2001 and 2002. 2003's results aside, you were really grasping at straws to think a guy with his demeanor, back, and career in the NL was going to do well in the Bronx.
0-3, twice left a runner on third with one out and a huge error.
378 Anyone wanna take that one?
389 he is treated unfairly. He went 3 for 3 with 2 walks and had a gigantic game a couple of days ago and not a peep. He continues to struggle a bit and he's public enemy #1. How about Posada's .200 average the last few weeks? How about Giambi's .185 average over the last month or whatever?
He's pitching a great game, bailed out his defense in that inning and this is the thanks he gets.
Anyone remember that time, I think it was in 2003(?), when Mike kept losing in the postseason and finally he made some pointed comment about how he's doing all he can on the mound but he can't swing the bats for the guys too.
:)
How's that Cliff? Enough?
He's handsome too? (I've never seen him.)
"You shitheads want to make sure I never win 20 you goddam bastards"
That said, I don't think he bailed out his team in that inning. Since, yes, then, no.
"Yanks overcome cold bats in the 7th. Win 10-4."
How's that for optimism. Go Yanks!
92 0r 93
Agreed.
As usual, the Arod bashing never bothers itself with logic.
Why can't our guys do that with RISP?
Jorge is awesome.
At any rate, it looks like he's not able to hold the fort any longer. Cliff's post for this game, sadly, is all too prophetic. This is a guy in decline.
Where's David Eckstein?
http://www.pattiboe.com/images/wpe3.jpg
this is the second:
http://www.corcoran.com/agents/agentpics/Charlie.jpg
If Randy Johnson, or anyone else for that matter, on the otherhand has a bad game, its their fault. Not one person on the club has hurt the team more than Alex Rodriguez did tonight. Not one. He blew the inning to hell by throwing a DP ball away, he's 0-3 and has left the man on third twice. But people are so worried about being deemed an "A-Rod Hater" that they cannot admit that.
I am an ARod fan, but he is failing on too many RISP, less then 2 out situations. No sac flies or even ground outs... Ks and pop-ups. I'm not getting on his ass, but this team needs him to perform better.
He needs to work on fouling off touch pitches with 2 strikes instead of striking out. This is what makes Jetes and Damon effective hitters. He has far too many Ks for someone of his talent.
In fairness, here's the first hit for my name:
http://www.thenitmustbetrue.com/mjohnson/thethe%20small.jpg
Man.
Melky.
Whoo-fucking-hoo!!!
It's a game again. Too bad Jetes didn't come through, but I called a 7-5 win today, and I think I said it would be one of the most satisfying games of the year in the end.
At this point, we're down 5-4 and it's been one of the most frustrating games of the year. It can all change on a dime. Keep the faith folks.
Let's keep the tone positive in here and enjoy this comeback. Yanks 7-5....
Thome's next so it's a good move, but Myers has been a mix and match guy to this point...
We just got through the heart of their order unscathed and the heart of ours is coming up.
We must win this baseball game.
Do you just mean that he's more polished, and perhaps a bit...a bit...I don't know, fuller, or more confident or something? A kind of maturity maybe?
Yeah, I can see that.
Too many weak grounders.
I think maybe he's getting caught off balance too frequently.
Don't know.
Rodriguez better keep quite lest he gets tossed.
If we don't come back to win, Moose and A-Rod in line for the goat's horns.
Unless I'm forgetting something, but I can't recall feeling like he threw really bad pitches to anyone.
He had a little early trouble with location, but really, he pitched a fine game.
I think I slight shakeup is in order...
I see.
I actually love Mike, not as a person, per se, but as a pitcher. I mean, there's really nothing endearing about his character, but he's just so damned interesting to watch pitch.
Who's more fun to watch than he is when he's on?
And even when he's not, like tonight, he gives a fine, brave showing.
Good for Mike.
Why, Joe, why?
As far as Moose, I agree it may not be fair to single him out, but last time I checked, run number 5 was earned, and it really hurt.
Was it or was it not Jenks who carved up Bernie the other night on three pitches?
Come on Melky.
...and sometimes it rains.
Bosox lose, still 3 games up. Night all.
To end on a positive note, I love how Melky kept us in it.
.308/.413/.564 (977 team OPS)
2 home runs
4 doubles
3 stolen bases
How the F do you figure that? 24 stranded runners.
"Wheels" Wright maybe, but there's no way Joe would use Mo that way. He didn't even want him to swing a bat, remember? Told him to not swing at anything.
Eh. Mama said there'd be days like this. I figured the White Sox would be up for revenge, after we swept them last time. At least they didn't sweep us, so we're still ahead.
And the Red Sox lost.
And as far as harping on the extra run Moose gave up, which was the difference, you could also argue that if A-Rod just gets one of those runners from third home with one out in his two chances, then the game is still tied right now. But let's just move on, nothing we can do about any of it.
Can't be too disappointed, however - the bullpen recovered from last night's debacle. Proctor could have easily let the game get out of reach and he kept it at 5-4. I'm not as bitter as I guess I should be, but like someone else mentioned - we lost 2 of 3 to the defending champs in their home park, and Boston got swept by the Royals.
Or maybe we shoulda tried a sac bunt or something here or there...
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