If the price isn't too high, I'd still love to see Abreu.

For the life of me, though, I can't figure out what small deal for pitching the Yanks might make. Too many teams are in the race, or think they are (cough-Seattle-cough).

The other teams aren't going to trade young pitchers, so its only veterans. And outside of Byrd and Westbrook - and I don't know if either of them is really available - I'm not sure any of them is worth acquiring.

I could be surprised, and it could be that Philly is just going to dump Abreu come late Monday, but I doubt it. I don't think much is going to happen for the Yankees. As Cash said last year - this is the team we've got. We have to find a way.

That's what scares me about any of the Nationals pitchers - they are either injured 75% of the time (Armas, Day, Patterson who they wouldn't trade anyway) or pretty much useless (Ortiz, Livan sad to say).

"The Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN's Keith Law has learned. The Brewers are sending Lee, Nelson Cruz and a player to be named to Texas for reliever Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix. Both teams are working on the medicials."

Thankfully it happened AFTER the sweep.

The Brewers was able to get 2 reasonably productive ML-ers (Cordero and Mench) and decent young 4th-5th outfielders.

How do you think this effects Soriano's price, and to a lesser extent Abreu's (more of a salary dump)?

"While there is interest in pitcher Jake Westbrook, the Indians probably will retain the right-hander because if they deal him, they immediately would create a problem of depth in their rotation, and might have to spend more money to find a replacement.

• Lots of scouts were on hand to see Rodrigo Lopez beat the Royals, as Jeff Zrebiec reports, but here are two incontrovertible facts: He leads his league in earned runs and hits allowed."

Lopez's adjusted BP-type numbers aren't very good either: dead last on the Orioles in VORP at -12.8, SNLVAR of 0.3.

His BABIP is high (.340), but batters are toasting him to the tune of .315/.362/.518. Ugh.

Maybe the Red Sox will trade for him. ;)

If I were Detroit, I get Sori. If I were Minn I'd get Sori. Both have young trading chips. If Minn gets Sori, I favor them for the WS.

Texas is clearly making a run for it, but that move will help them in the future too. Of course if their pitching falls apart, it won't matter much.

I had a whole different read on the Lee-Mench trade. The biggest variable is whether or not Lee stays in Texas this winter. For a two-month rental, and dumping Cordero and Mench who IIRC aren't making tons of money, it doesn't make sense.

Barring any other massive trades to the AL West, the Rangers are now pretty set to be the class of the division. But I just don't believe the pitching can hold up in the post-season.

16 I agree with you Dimelo, Miggy seems to do the little things that help us win. He has gotten some timely hits and can steal a base when we need it. Not to mention that he has filled in nicely for Cano at 2B. Why would we want to get rid of him?

On the other hand, Phillips really has to develop some consistency now that he's part of the regular lineup. After all, he can't afford any sorts of slump if he wants to stay. He is so not Giambi.

Your last paragraph I agree with entirely. =)

BTW, I like Miggy, but let's be honest, he's not an everyday player, and if Cano is out another 3 weeks, playing Cairo everyday at 2B is a huge problem for the Yanks.

To the dismay of Andy Phillips fans, which I'm, and Aaron Guiel fans, I think Cashman's radar is locked on Craig Wilson, and he is, at this moment, prying the 1B/RFer from the Pirates for a reasonable price.

To me, Wilson's biggest plus is his ability to mash lefties. Here's his career line vs southpaws:

.307/.378/.545/.923

This season he's performing at the same level vs lefty pitching:

.302/.404/.556/.959

This, of course, is no guarantee that Wilson will hold his own against the Lirianos and Santanas of the AL, but he appears to be a solid option vs southpaws, and a big upgrade over the Guiel-Bernie platoon.

Not sure who the Pirates are demanding for Wilson, and I trust Cashman will hang up if they're being silly.

Come to think of it, when was the last time the Yanks did business with the Pirates? Rhoden for Drabeck in '86?

Otherwise, he's been a steady glove and is certainly a substantial defensive upgrade over 25.

I hadn't really heard much about Cruz. But it sounds like that may change in the next couple of years if his numbers trend upwards from his AAA stats. Hell, by just playing in Ameriquest, his slugging pct. jumps about .400 points.

Now the real question is, how is this going to effect the other OF sluggers on the block.

Another question about Wilson: Does anyone know about his glove at first? Is he better than Phillips?

cubs get: carlos pena, steven white and melky.
yankes get: mark prior, a first aid kit, a case of old style, and the john hughes collection on DVD.

29 don't know much about his 1B glove, but he seems serviceable, and didn't know he catches, too.

30 I'm sure Cashman will use that to lower the price, and hopefully, he'll make the deal contingent upon a physical if Wilson's playing hurt, and not just slumping.

If Giambi played first and the Yanks signed a DH rental, great.

I wonder what the Giants want for a Bonds rental?

40 I doubt Johnson is easily obtainable. He's at .305/.435/.533 and only making 3.2 million this year. The Nats would want a lot for him I'm thinking. Beides Wilson, what other 1B are available?

BTW, I enjoyed you on the Little Rascals and SNL. You must be the ghost of Buckwheat, because IIRC didn't John David Stutts assassinate you? Of course, you should have seen it coming because Stutts was voted "Most Likely to Kill Buckwheat" in high school.

(actually ... its If I Recall Correctly)

If Phillips's hypothetical replacement can hit like a league average first baseman, he's already far better than Phillips. Hell, if Phillips's replacement can play at replacement level, he's better than Phillips. Not by much, but better. There's not any reason to be giving him ABs any more.

49 I can think of only one reason to keep running Phillips out there - of all the hitters the Yanks have on the bench, he's far and away the best. Sad but true.

Bonds at DH would be just incredible. If Sheffsui came back - jesus, mary, and joseph, that lineup would be ruthless. Yankee hate would be unprecedented, just off the meter.

(If you put much stock in evaluating defense on the number of errors a guy has made, Weeks has made a ton. If you prefer more advanced metrics, such as BP's Rate, he's still not very good, only 93 with 100 being average.)

The difference between Cano and Weeks is their upside. BP's PECOTA gave Cano a 10% chance of being worth about 4.5 wins above replacement; meanwhile, Weeks had a 10% chance of being about 7.5 wins above replacement. Because otherwise you're right, they are pretty equivalent with the bat right now (Weeks .271 EqA, 2.7 WARP1 vs Cano .265 EqA, 3.4 WARP1).

The difference in WARP1 is their gloves, Weeks having a 93 Rate as I said above, Cano having a 115 Rate which is awesome.

Finally, FWIW, Weeks is much more of a basestealer than Cano is (19 SB v 5 CS for Weeks, 3 SB vs 2 CS for Robbie).

53 That's almost too scary to think about, on a number of levels.

Quite frankly, I don't see much happening. There are too many buyers, and what the Yanks need (4th/5th starter, OF bat) others need too. Maybe simply swap mediocre pitchers in hopes that a change of scenary will produce another Small/Chacon.

definitely worth more.. than Ponson.. right??

Plays RF, LF, 1B, 3B

Is hitting:
.303/.386/.516 with 12 HR, 42 RBI

just returned from DL with strained oblique and took Liriano deep.

I think he had mostly been playing RF before he got hurt, and according to Indians' official website, as of 7/26 he's splitting time at 1B with Victor Martinez. Hmmm.
I wonder if that's because he was hurt.

He makes about $3 mill per.

when Melky came up.. i heard (take it with a pinch of salt) Mike Kay sy on YES that he spoke with the "AA" hitting coach and that guy thinks Melky can become a batting champ..

also, though he is not a terrific defender he has a good arm n speed.. that was the quote..

i think he can take over.. i think everyone has been genuinely surprised by how well he has filled in.. maybe he was thought of as a 4th OFer or 3 yr pjt.. but to see him mature AND contribute is heartening..

i think u r onto something there.. with that train of thought..

and personally i don see how J Damon compeltes his 4 yrs in CF

Alex and Cliff...
Maybe you guys could give us a breakdown of WPA?
How telling are these numbers?

If these numbers are a true indication of who is contributing to wins, it really puts a hurt on ARod and Cano, and tells us how full of holes and unbalanced this team is.

I would have loved to see these numbers for 2005... when ShefSui played.

So guys... what does this mean????

he throws geeky formulae and all of a sudden baseball is harder to predict n fathom than calculus..

it also means.. when ARod is said to be hitting 300 with RISP 2 outs.. they invent a new catch term -- post BIG ORTIZ BLOOM -- "7th ining n later close games"..

and they throw out..

u know what they are telling u is.. if a 2-1 game is decided by the winning HR in bottom 3rd by AROD.. it doesnt matter much.. coz it was not hit after 7th..

even though.. that won the game..

i would love someone to do a early and close stats..

u know tied scores.. how Ortiz is hitting.. seems to me he wakes up after 9 pm everyday..

WPA - Win Probability Added
This is not a meaningful stat?

i am just saying there are too many stats out there..

we have to understand.. that 3/10 is good in baseball..

even tho they fail 7/10 times..

given that 70% times a GOOD player fails..

there are so many inventable stats that can make ur players look terrible..

how i use that 7/10 and 3/10 can make us completely misunderstand or even twist it..

for instance i saw a link on waswatching.com

Steve Lombardi showed who was helping us to win games..

and i saw Cairo, Phillips ranked above Arod and Giambi stats-wise...

thats true based on that formula.. but i can say from a layman point of view.. Giambi n ARod help us more to win..

thats my point.. i think there are too many iventible stats that can make any player good or bad..

as i say, for fun lets consider inings before 7.. we may find out Ortiz sucks.. u know.. its just B James has created too many geeky analysts..

i amnot as crude as Joe Morgan and dont wanna say stats are invalid.. am just saying stats can be overblown soemtimes

http://tinyurl.com/ph8rx

I'm guessing he's probably got a good explaination of WPA in general at his blog (clutchiness.blogspot.com), but I don't know for sure.

All that said, I don't put a lot of stock in evaluating players by WPA beacuse of something Dan said in the post I linked to:

"[T]here's nothing inherent about being better in high leverage situations that means that player is actually any good."

My only issue is that it is weighted proportionally heavier the later the game gets. My feeling is 3 RBI in the first inning is everybit as important as 3 in the 9th.

It seems this is WIN shares, weighted by the (lateness of the) inning.

It could measure 'Clutch' except these scores are independent of the game score. If you broke down WPA by game situation (ahead by 4+, Ahead by 0-3, behind by 1-3, behind by 4+), is seems to be a relative measure of 'Clutch' (for what that is worth).

By the by, from Hardball Times:
ARod: average 2003-2005

Bases Loaded ----------- .371/.422/.657
Close and Late --------- .276/.392/.553
Men on, two out -------- .280/.381/.553
Runners On ------------- .292/.387/.542
Scoring Position ------- .273/.381/.482
Scoring Pos./two out --- .270/.392/.495

That's assuming the game is played. The weather's not looking good. :-P

David Pinto came up with a real gem over at Baseball Musings. Take a look at anyone you want to.

I can't find anything wrong with A-Rod's numbers that can't be attributed to sample size.

And Re: the title of this post...

"The waiting game sucks! Let's play Hungry, Hungry Hippos!"