Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Despite all of the upheaval on their roster, the Yankees have been alarmingly consistent thus far this year, avoiding slumps, but also failing to go off on any dazzling winning streaks. The Yankees have lost more than two games in a row just twice this year (a fact they hope will remain true after tonight), with both losing streaks having maxed out at four games. On the flip side, they've won more than three in a row just three times, with two five-game winning streaks, one four-gamer and just one other of as many as three in a row.
The Phillies' season has followed a very different course. They started the season losing six of seven, then from the end of April to mid-May won 13 of 14, beginning that run with a nine-game winning streak. That was immediately followed by a five-game losing streak and coming into Sunday's game against the Devil Rays, the Phillies had lost eight of nine. That last spell included a six-game losing streak that was snapped with an 8-5 win yesterday.
The Phillies' big problem is starting pitching. Randy Wolf hasn't thrown a pitch all year, Jon Lieber is currently on the DL, lefty phenom Cole Hamels has also spent time on the DL, while the current version of the rotation includes reliever Ryan Madson and rookie Scott Mathieson, who was in the Florida State league last year. The only Phillie starters to take all of their turns thus far this year have been Brett Myers and Cory Lidle. The result is a rotation that has been the second worst in baseball, just barely allowing fewer runs per start than that of the neighboring Baltimore Orioles.
Good thing then that the Philadelphia bullpen has been so strong. The Phillies' 3.25 Bullpen ERA has been the best in baseball thus far this year, with ex-Yankee Tom Gordon leading the way with 18 saves, a 1.61 ERA and 17 hits, 8 walks and 37 strikeouts in 28 innings. Behind Gordon the Phillies have a strong pair of veteran LOOGies in Rheal Cormier and old Yankee whipping boy Arthur Rhodes. The problem is that this pen is built to win now (Rhodes is 36, Gordon is 38 and Cormier is 39), but the Phillies have a losing record and are 9.5 games behind the NL-best Mets. Good thing there's not much competition for the NL Wild Card (the Phils trail the unlikely Reds by three).
Curiously, given the extreme divergence in performance between their starters and relievers, the Phillies are a terrible defensive team (third worst defensive efficiency in the majors) playing in an extreme hitters park. The primary offenders on defense are Utley and Howard on the right side of the infield (Bell and Rollins have been excellent on the left) and, to a lesser degree Burrell and, believe it or not, Aaron Rowand in the outfield. I'm not sure what's going on with Rowand, save for having seen about eleventy zillion replays of that catch against the Mets during which he broke his face on the chain link fence in center, but it is interesting to note that Rowand's Rate stats haven't been as strong as one would expect over the past three seasons, with the former World Champion rating as simply average in both 2003 and 2004.
Today the Phils send their best starter, Brett Myers, against Randy Johnson, who rebounded from a tremendously discouraging start against the A's to enjoy one of his best starts of the year last time out only to get tossed for throwing at old nemesis Eduardo Perez with one out in the seventh inning. Myers, meanwhile, had turned in ten-straight quality starts before getting mugged in his last two starts by the Mets and Nationals, resulting in a combined line of 5 2/3 IP, 16 H, 12 R (11 ER), 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K.
The Phils typically have four fantastic hitters in a row in their line-up in Utley, Abreu, Burrell and Howard. Fortunately for Johnson and the Yankees, three of them are lefties. The right-handed Burrell, however, will bear some watching tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies
2006 Record: 34-35 (.493)
2006 Pythagorean Record: 33-36 (.484)
Manager: Charlie Manuel
General Manager: Pat Gillick
Home Ballpark (2005 Park Factors): Citizen's Bank Park (108/107)
Who's Replaced Whom?
Current Roster:
1B Ryan Howard (L)
2B Chase Utley (L)
SS Jimmy Rollins (S)
3B David Bell (R)
C Sal Fasano (R)
RF Bobby Abreu (L)
CF Aaron Rowand (R)
LF Pat Burrell (R)
Bench:
L David Dellucci (OF)
S Shane Victorino (OF)
S Abraham O. Nunez (IF)
R Chris Roberson (OF)
R Chris Coste (C)
Rotation:
R Brett Myers
R Corey Lidle
L Cole Hamels
R Scott Mathieson
R Ryan Madson
Bullpen:
R Tom Gordon
R Ryan Franklin
L Arthur Rhodes
L Aaron Fultz
L Rheal Cormier
R Clay Condrey
15-day DL: R Mike Lieberthal (C), L Randy Wolf, R Jon Lieber, R Julio Santana
Typical Lineup:
S Jimmy Rollins (SS)
L Chase Utley (2B)
L Bobby Abreu (RF)
R Pat Burrell (LF)
L Ryan Howard (1B)
R Aaron Roward (CF)
R David Bell (3B)
R Sal Fasano (C)
Johnny Damon CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Derek Jeter SS
Jason Giambi 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Bubba Crosby RF
Randy Johnson P
No Abreu and no Howard.
My finest lefty creation of the last twenty years will pitch a CG.
Has anyone else noticed this? More pop-ups? More harmless flys? of late.
.275 .341 .375 .716
Better than Melky, actually, except Melky walks more.
He's gotten a lot of playing time this year (well, until he got DLed), and he always hits pretty well when he plays regularly.
29 Please tell me you're just making that up and there's no basis for that comment. lol.
A-Rod!
http://tinyurl.com/hwovp
Hear hear
Meaning
A shout of support or agreement.
Origin
Originated in the British parliament in the 18th century as a contraction of 'hear him, hear him'. It is still often heard there although sometimes used ironically these days.
He's gonna kill Giambi if he keeps making throws like that.
And sorry, Ortiz is a dh, not a first baseman.
I say we have a pool on when the trade for an offensive player happens, and who it is.
Brian 'Bubby will be our CF'er' Cashman is playing it cool.
"it's hard to feel sorry for a lineup with Posada, Giambi, A-Rod, and Jeter"
Yes, our O is very good, but with our pitching, to win the whole show, our O needs to be GREAT. In our glory of seeing the 'kids' play, did we think we could loose ShefMatsui and not be impacted?
Yesterday we lost 3-2, and we questioned the pitching? We need to win 90% of games where we only have 3 runs scored against us.
I agree. But this year our pitching is better then last, especially if Dotel helps us. But how many 1 run and 2 run games have we lost? How many games where we game up 5 runs or less have we lost?
We cant replace ShefSui with BubbaMilk. We need to win more of the type games mentioned above.
It's just a casual view from an outsider. I don't know much more than what I've seen him do against the Mets. The guy just has that long swing and ESPN-made-follow-through. I don't know if he's a decent outfielder or not, but he just strikes me as a guy who has the sexy profile but a lot of holes in his game. Again, each year he goes out there and is better than I probably give him credit for. Then again, he's never broken out and become a great player consistently either.
COME ON A ROD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Curses.
Sox up 4-3.
muther-bleeping first pitch swinging. grrrr.
Geez... baseball used to have rules.
Randy has now put together 2 straight nice starts and Dotel will be here within the next 2 weeks. But if Giambi, Arod or Posada go into extended slumps, this team is toast...
Yeah. At least I'd completely miss the ball and make the pitcher throw three pitches.
My count is 15-7, when we have given up 4 runs or less. Thats not bad, but thats maybe 2-3 (out of the 7) games where 1 hit or 1 HR makes a loss a win. Over the year that 6 or so games.
Can we afford to give 6 games away?
But I thought that you couldn't advance if first was occupied?
Damn.
Rhodes scholars them.
Cano, bless his heart, wants to hit every pitch he sees.
As nervous as Flush Gordon made me over the years I don't recall him ever braining a batter like Farnswacker did there. Veras help us, I'da hooked the big gallut right there.
Lock up the kids! A little bad luck here, an offensive drought there, a rise in the temperature, a drop in the standings, and George goes looking for a bat. His kingdom for an RBI man.
We got on base we had big hits, but they didn't come at the same time :/ arrragh.
Bell hitting like junk isn't exactly as much as a problem as Rollin though, at least Bell is in the back of the lineup, where his number is still decent, Rollin is leading off, and his OBP is simply abysmal, in short, only the existance of Juan Pierre make him not look so utterly bad.
They got a talented pitching staff, but injury has really hampered them, Lieber isn't exactly great but he provides a decent veteran presense, Brett Myer is quickly becomming a legitimate ace while Cole Hamels may also be a very good starter, Cory Lidle is a decent enough pitcher also, as with Randy Wolf and using Ryan Madson as a spot starter.
The problem is of those people only Myers and Lidle have been healthy, that and Madson, but Madson's starting numbers have been putrid so far while Cory Lidle have been consistently mediocare if they put their pitching staff together and/or (preferablly and) drop Jimmy Rollin to the bottom of the order they should be just fine.
I have posted this and am concerned. As his confidence has grown, so has his swing, and he is getting away from hitting line drives/ground balls and hitting flys and pop-ups. I really like Melky, but he might be too young to be in this NY pressure cooker/fight for the pennant.
Look at the difference beteen his first call-up last year and now. It MIGHT be better for him to spend a little more time on the farm. I think he knows it's just a matter of time before he gets a full shot at the bigs. At his age, just a year of two could make a big difference in his power. I don't know if we can afford to have 2 OF'ers with an .700 OPS.
Fortunately Cano's success has not altered his beatuiful swing, and he is a line drive machine. If you even saw Mattingly hit ropes the opposite way, Cano's shots look very similar.
ARod appears to be back. He is no longer lunging for the ball, but staying back. Amazing the difference between the last 4 games and the previous 10.
We need another power bat in this line-up.
Maybe Cano can hit 2nd, but because he doesn't walk much, it may not work out.
I rather put Jete's back in the 2 spot, then ARod, Giambi, New Guy, Posada, and Cano.
Though the YES crew blamed the new scouting reports on Melky. Apparently, they say he'll chase the high balls. So they're pitching him that way, and he's biting.
He might be able to adjust, given the chance. Robby Cano did, last year. Dunno if Melky will get that chance, though.
Thanks rsmith51
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