Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Happy New Year, folks.
So, will the Yanks make any other significant moves before the '06 season begins? Will they trade Carl Pavano? It seems like they are pretty well set. What do you think they might do and what do you think they should do--if anything?
I agree that our bench looks like a Mount Rushmore of mediocrity -- but I don't think the Yanks need another hitter, I think they should stock up on a few more speedy and skilled defenders.
I think Torre should be flexible with the DH position and rotate Williams, Giambi, and all the outfielders as DH. Wouldn't DH Posada, just ask him for the occasional pinch hit/walk.
Pavano? Unless somebody's offering another frontline starter for him straight up, I wouldn't ship him just yet. He may never be worth all that money he's getting - but if Pavano can find his groove again, he could be a innings-eating horse for the Yanks.
As far as the pitching goes, RJ will be RJ, Chacon will be a workhorse. Mussina has shown a decline, but is still good enough with that offense. Give me 2 pitchers worth of quality starts out of Pavano, Wright and Wong and we will be just fine. That's what depth is all about.
I wonder if you could give some of the older guys a real day off. DONT come to the park. Sleep late. Stay in your jammas all day. Have a beer. Watch the game on TV.
I know a day of total rest, both physical and mental is very healing (for me anyway). Might this work for the Shef, Giambi, Matsui, RJ, Posada? types? (Posada only if we get Piazza).
I still like Piazza as a last bench guy. It never hurts to have a 3rd catcher. The guy still looks in shape. I think the idea of staying in NY, being on a contender, and JUST HITTING might bring this guy back to some of his former numbers. In this role, I think he would be very effective... certainly better then Ruben was, and probably more dangerous then Bernie. I'd love to see him play ping-pong with the Green Monster on our trips to Boston.
Is anybody else interested in him? I'm surprised the Sox haven't thought about Ortiz at 1st and Piazza at DH. I would think we would get a BIG home town discount. I think Mike would like to pad his numbers (397 hrs now... I'm sure he would love some more for his HOF plaque), and if he had a good '06 on the bench, he would get a shot at '07.
Even in his current 'diminished' state, he has averaged over .800 OPS and 20 HRs in the last 3 years. And that's with catching everyday. As a regular DH, I think he's good for .270, .850 OPS and 25 HRs.
And celli23.... I'd love to see Bernie do that... but I think it is wishful thinking.
I mean, last year some people thought Manny had an off year: 45hrs, 144rbi, .292ba, .982OPS.
The guy may be a ditz, but he is still a monster. And if they swap Tejada for Manny, the Sox are missing 2 OF'ers. I'm not to worried unless they get Tejada and also KEEP Manny.
Exactly - I put Manny above Tejada as far as the 'holy sh*t this guy is on deck' factor, so I'd actually root for that trade - makes Boston weaker and Baltimore slightly stronger.
Although I actually fear Jay Gibbons vs. the Yankees than anyone else the Orioles have or could bring in...
Most optimistic: Bernie bounces back to a .370 OBP. Damon hits in NY like he hit in Boston last year. Posada, Giambi and Sheffield don't deteriorate with age. Cano does well without Ruben Sierra's coaching. At least 5 starting pitchers match their best previous years.
Most pessimistic: Posada continues the decline of the last 2 years. Age catches up with Sheffield. Giambi's steroids wear off. Cano has sophomore jinx. Combination of age and injuries wrecks the starting rotation. Mariano Rivera has age problems.
My point is that the Yankees likely will turn out to have significant holes, but we don't know where they are yet. So, the best bet is to stand pat for now, then try to make deals duing the season when the problems come out.
Manny's Career averages: 42 Hrs, 136 RBI, 1.008 OPS
Miggy's Carrer averages: 28, 110, 0.815
Manny is significantly better, but consider:
Manny will be 34 next year
Tejada will be 30 next year
Manny: 06:$19M, 07:$18M, 08:$20M, 09:$20M club option, 10:$20M club option
Tejada: 06:$10M, 07:$12M, 08:$13M, 09:$13M
Manny - Below Average Outfielder
Tejada - Abover average shortstop
So, by trading Manny for Tejada the Sox get a younger player who plays a more difficult position for less money.
Not only that, but how easy is it to replace a power hitting outfielder? They are a lot easier to come by than a power hitting shortstop. So they get Tajada, and they can spend the money they saved on to fill the offensive void between Manny and Tejada.
That's not really going out on a limb - I could say that about any team going into the next season. ;-)
In general, I agree with you, but not quite to the degree your post insinuates. And on a year by year basis of us vs. them, I'd rather play against Miggy than Manny.
I don't know Manny's physical condition, but on any team that doesn't have Ortiz, Manny may still be a very effective DH in 5 years.
Fair enough. Money would most likely change hands in a Manny/Miggy deal. And without a doubt the Red Sox are hurting right now, as CF/SS are not easy positions to fill.
And I agree with you to a degree - I think for the year 2006, I would rather have Manny over Tejada based upon the current state of the FA market. I dont think they'd be able to find the outfielder that I'm talking about unless they start trading away other parts of their team.
Beyond '06 though, even if money ended up being even, I still have to think the Sox are better off with Tejada on it.
Everyone, myself included, fear when Manny comes to the plate. However, I can remember multiple instances where I have burst out laughing while watching him play defense against the Yanks as well. Tejada doesnt strike the same amount of fear in my mind when I see him at the plate, but I know nearly anything hit to his side of the infield is going to have a glove put on it, which garners its own level of respect.
This argument can really go either way. Pistolpete believed it made Boston weaker and Baltimore slightly stronger. I think its the other way around.
I THINK the Sox lost some money in trading Rent-a-wreck. So, if the Sox trade Manny for Miggy, their SS will cost them:
10 mil - Miggy
4-5 mil - Manny
?? mil - Rent-a-wreck.
I don't have the exact numbers, but Miggy (the Sox SS) would ultimately be costing them more then we pay ARod (18mil?).
The 2 offseason moves that will put us in the WS were.
1) NY getting Man-of-Cash back in charge.
2) Boston losing Theo. Their worst loss since the Babe!
Hey Alex/Cliff.... help me with the numbers here.
Boston paying up to $11M of $29M remaining on Renteria's contract ($8M in salary 2006-08, plus $3M buyout if 2009 option is declined)
So 2.67 million a year.
In all fairness you'd have to quantify Marte's value, but that would be 16.67 - 17.67 million for Tejada.
Anyone who thinks Boston is going to take it in the shorts on a Tejada deal might want to check out this link. The deals as described would be a great move for Boston. Tejada is a horse. I don't think bringing him in would or should be considered a backward step in any way.
IMO, breaking up Ortiz/Manny is always a step backward for Boston.
Pavano's contract is still bad, but not horrible if hes healthy.
Boston is really reshaping the team but not doing anything special. At the end of the day they are cutting payroll and trying to get flexibility. Their goal will be to bring up young players and sign smart free agents and avoiding the Manny and A-Rod contracts in the future. They are basically tying one hand behind their back this year for the long run.
The Dodgers haven't spent any big bucks or traded for any really big time players, beyond Furcal. That is a team that could have really used Burnett and Damon. Imagine a 1 - 2 punch of Damon and Furcal at the top. Hell of a lot of speed and headaches.
The 80's Yanks will be coming back soon if you don't look out. Look at all of the guys 30+ and the farm system right now. A lot of grey beards to replace in the next two seasons.
Yankees need to bolster the bench, and also provide depth at the OF and DH spots.
My answer would be to try and sign Richard Hidalgo to a type of a 1-year inexpensive deal that the Yankees originally thought for Nomar, but leaving out the IF supersub role.
He can play very good corner OF defensively, and passable defense at CF. Additionally, he has very good power, only 30, had a down year last year, and should come cheap. This signing in fact allows Sheff to DH more, improves OF defense, and improves the offense. If Sheffield is playing the field, Yankees have a better bench.
Question is, how much would it take to sign him? If it is 3 million base salary plus incentives, I say go for it. If more, pass.
Re: Tejada, stop drinking the ESPN/Boston media kool aid. The Os aren't going to trade Tejada to Boston. I would love if the Red Sox traded Manny to anyone, but no one is taking on that contract until the Red Sox swallow a chunk of it and I can't see them forking over the cash.
Still struggling to understand how the team came together after last season's dreadful start. They tired at the finish. Matsui, Sheff, A-Rod looked and got beat in October.
I think Perez has been signed by Cleveland already.
The Yankees were 21st in ERA last year, and have mostly the same rotation this year. I'd prefer a more relevant stat but I couldn't find anywhere else to sort the pitching stats for just the starters for all teams.
Looking just at the AL, I count 6 AL teams that had significantly better staffs than the Yankees last year -- Angels, White Sox, A's, Twins, Indians, and Blue Jays. Lots more in the NL. As I said, the Yankees have a below-average staff and haven't done much to improve it. I see this as their major weakness this year.
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