Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
The Yankees traded minor leaguer Ben Julinel to the Marlins in exchange for left-handed relief pitcher, Ron Villone. This is the sixth time Villone has been traded and the ninth team he's been on since he broke into the Majors in 1995.
As sabernar said, the prospect we gave up for him was a 26-year old AA player and not all that good, so it's worth the risk. He should be better than Franklin or Groom or Embree and he isn't making much money. In this FA market for relievers he might have made $4 million a year.
"The Marlins just gave up one of their best prospects, Yorman Bazardo, [to Seattle] for Villone in July. Now the Yankees are getting him for a reliever they never deemed worthy of a 40-man roster spot...Pathetic. Anyone who wanted Julianel could have taken him in last week's Rule 5 draft. The 26-year-old had a 3.90 ERA and a 106/50 K/BB ratio in 87 2/3 IP for Double-A Trenton last season. The Marlins are now in line to make a big profit next season, so they certainly could have held on to Villone and waited for his market value to go back up. Every other trade GM Larry Beinfest has made has been defensible, but this is just ridiculous."
If Leiter accepts arbitration, I see him as pretty untradeable. Who would want him after his rough start and rough finish last year? So what happens to Al?
I will be very happy if the 2006 Yanks don't have Sierra(check), Womack(check), and Leiter(arbitration, wtf????) on the team...
But I'm a sucker for these small market journeymen, coming to the bright lights of Broadway. Hopefully, Villone is like Small - only his journey has been through the bigs.
Short of Nomar, I don't believe there is an impact player coming to us this winter. We have cut costs, and will be able to tweak our team midseason.
Is there any doubt that our current team is better then last years? We have lost no one, and have added a few decent players. I think, considering a shitty market this year, that we are in good shape.
What... is our payroll 30 mil less then lst years? That buys a lot in the midseason.
I think it's been a decent off-season, and have no real problems with the moves they've made. I'd be thrilled if we snagged Nomar because he's the type of bench player we've been lacking. And it'd be great if we got Michaels for a cheap package of Sturtze and Henn. I'm just not sure if the team is better than last year's. Sans Womack and Ruben is great. But aren't those wins we gain by their absence equaled by the declines of our veteran team?
Must agree. An aging team making no significant moves is not a better team. While the injury prone pitching staff was predictably injured, the offense missed no significant time to injury in '05.
While I believe Chacon is a valuable addition, I expect Small to pitch his way out of the majors by mid-May.
Would the Yankees of the '90s have considered making a roster spot of the likes of Ron Villone?
BTW, the Sox may be on the cusp of a significant move. They are speaking with the Tribe about Coco Crisp. Crisp played at 25 this past year to an OBP of .810, slightly higher than Johnny Damon. He may be a better player than Damon today; he'll quite likely be by 2007.
$30 million buys a lot in mid-season if you have prospects to deal. In his review of his top 20 Yankee Prospects of 2005, John Sickels was only impressed by the progress of two, other than Wang and Cano, the graduates. The two who impressed are Hughes and Tyler Clippard.
I'm not sure I agree with his assessment of Duncan's '05 season. "Hit .235/.326/.408 for Double-A Trenton, very disappointing. But he hit the stitches out of the ball in the Arizona Fall League and is still just 21. Needs good start in '06 to reestablish value as trade bait." While the average is low and the power less than thrilling, he did show plate discipline and he was very young for AA.
Bowa will be an upgrade at 3B, Mazzilli is back, Guidry will be an improvement (I was not a Mel fan and think the stats bear that out), and Pena will be good at 1B.
Mussina, Johnson, Wang, Pavano, Brown, and Wright all missed starts due to injury last year. That was all 5 of the projected 2005 rotation and one substitute as well. It could have been predicted, even anticipated, but probably won't happen again.
I think Johnson will be better in his 2nd year, Mussina should be league average, Chacon can be productive, and Wang, hopefully, won't have a sophomore slump. That leaves us with Pavano, Wright, and Small to get about 40 starts-50 starts depending on the others performances and health.
I don't think the squad can be worse in those two areas. I do think our offense could have some problems, depending on Posada's health, who plays CF, who plays DH, and who can avoid injury.
I've got a good feeling about Chacon. I got to see him up close a few times last summer and he is filthy; right down to ball in the dirt and strike 3 check swings. I think and I hope that he'll surprise a few people with some good numbers and lots of innings eaten this year. The story is altitude messed with his curveball and his head. It sure looked like it, cause there didn't appear to be much wrong with him at sea level. His 2005 Yankees performance may be an outlier but IMHO he gave every reason to believe it was a level shift rather than a temporary one. Small has that fastball change mix that works so well out of the pen. His stuff may not be as effective as a 200 innings starter but may work pretty well in the 5th, 6th or 7th inning BP slot. I hope both these guys continue to pitch above replacement level. That could be huge for us.
I think you should feel good about Chacon. He's not old and does have good stuff. He seems to have survived life in Colorado.
Farnsworth at very best is a lateral move from Gordon. More likely, he's a medium step backward. He's possibly Ed Whitson. Gordon was not only very good, he was consistent and composed. Farnsworth is neither of those things.
Small, as you know, was waived by 27 teams before reaching New York, a vial of magic dust in his pocket. My guess is that Small's vial of magic dust is gone. Small will be Small in 2006 and Sturtze, who became Sturtze again the second half of 2005, will again be Sturtze. In neither case is that good. In both cases, you have an aging career stiff who had a short run.
I hope one way you hope another. That's the nature of the little thing we share on I-95. Small 10-0 again? Doubt it. A chance to be at or above replacement level? Why not? I saw too many bad swings by good hitters at his stuff for him to be a complete fluke. Guys have been winning with that fastball changeup stuff for 150 years. Where one guy's career is concerned, the past is prologue and time as a right hand variable is meaningless. Which means we're both just guessing. Small was such a great story last year. I suppose part of me is pulling for him because we get so few chances to pull for an underdog around here. I'm surprised he doesn't get more pull for that reason alone.
Sturtze had a tired arm and sore shoulder and pitched like it during the second half. With rest why can't he revert back to what he had become with the Yankees? I think there's as much reason for hope as despair with those two. You are right that the BP needs some youth and I think we could use another big hard throwing arm. Still, there's about 2 months before we report so there's time. The only thing I think I really know is, there's no sure thing either way. You hope one way and I'll hope another maybe at best we'll split the difference.
Certainly I understand your hopes. I'd just rather place my faith in players with strong histories rather than two guys with a decade of failure and two months of success behind them.
Sturtze: released or non-tendered by Cubs, Rangers, Devil Rays, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Marlins. He hasn't even been successful with the Yankees. 2004 - 5.47, 2005 - 4.73. So what are you hoping for sporter, another year of ball a full run above league average?
Small: released or nontendered by Diamonbacks, Brewers Devil Rays, Rockies, Angels, Braves, Cubs, Marlins. He truly was one of the great stories of 2005. One of the great individual stories of all time. Thank him, just don't expect more of the same from him.
Chacon? At 25 in 2003, he was a better than league average pitcher in Colorado. Which makes him a much better than league average pitcher. At 26, in 2004 he saved 35 games despite a 7.11 ERA. Back in the rotation in, he pitched quite well before being dealt to the Yankees.
You look at Small's record and Sturtze's record, you shake your head and say where did these few months come from. You look at Chacon's and you can see, where he's probably not as good as he was last year, he has shown that he's a decent pitcher at worst.
I don't see much bullpen there in front of Mo. Yes, Myers is a good pitcher as long as they keep him under 40 innings.
Nomar is such a wimp: I still remember the "First Couple of Boston Sports" out kicking the soccer ball around at Fenway. If he shows up, it's the 2nd coming of Wade Boggs: give that man a ring. If he wimps out (more true to form)let the LALA guys raise their lattes in celebration. If they take Damon too, so much the better. God I wish that free agency would come to a close; Damon in pinstripes is a nightmare.
The only Yankees on the RedSox are Ortiz and Wakefield. The rest are poseurs.
Am I the only guy here happy with Bubba in center? I told you last year that Robinson PolanCano was a future HOF. Didn't you see Bubba redo his whole hitting style and emerge as a credible force in September? You know, next May when he's hitting .410, I wanna see a little more respect...
That's why you have to watch the games. I can see and read Sturtze's numbers as well as you can. I see a guy who worked himself into a reliable swing role in 2004 and was finding a role again in 2005. His era doesn't tell the whole story with Sturtze nor does it completely explain his value. I understand that you've done some high level thinking about this. But its just "Judgmental Analysis" rather than "Statistical" in nature and basically unaided at that (in a forecasting sense). If its otherwise would you share your modeling technique, the extrapolation model employed and results, I would be interested in looking at them. If not, I'll stand by my guess being as good as yours.
I can't believe that people here are happy with Giambi playing 1B. It simply doesn't sense for him to hit better when he fields. I think it probably has something to do with the distribution of his DH time overlapping with his slump and his 1B time overlapping with Tino's injury and his resurrection.
Other than the Crosby-Sheffield collison, I don't think anything killed the Yankees more in that playoff series than Giambi's arm.
If none of this works, sign Jacque Jones for RF and DH Sheff? The idea of him in the field every day scares me...
Hel-loooh, hint, key word: Research.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.