Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
As the Red Sox front office soap opera continues, all remains relatively quiet in the Bronx, where it is brick cold this morning. Oh, Brian Cashman, who maintains that he has no interest in dealing Carl Pavano, reportedly took in a meal with relief pitcher Julian Tavarez yesterday up in Washington Heights (insert snide remark here), but that's not exactly a banner headline. What did make the back page of the New York Post today is a rumor that the Yankees have made an offer to free agent Nomar Garciaparra to play first base in New York. George King writes that the Bombers are one of several teams that have inquired about Nomar. Nothing more specific is available at this time. Meanwhile, Newsday's Jon Heyman, who has a habit of writing about Scott Boras' clients, reports that if Johnny Damon considers a four-year deal, the Yankees will be in the mix.
There has been no official word yet about Bernie Williams' return next season, though I assume he'll be the team's fourth outfielder. In a recent chat over at Baseball Prospectus, Joe Sheehan opined:
As frustrating as it is to watch Williams play center field, I don't think the team currently listing Bubba Crosby as its #1 center fielder has much room to complain about the marginal HoFer with fourth-outfielder skills wanting to stick around.Evaluate Bernie against fourth outfielders and you'll see that he can still help a team. If the money is right, he'd be a good fit for the Yankees next year, and for 20 or so other teams.
Phil Allard and Larry Mahnken see things differently.
Round the Web
Rich Lederer has been making the case for Bert Blyleven: Hall of Famer for some time now. He's both committed and convincing. This year, he's pulled out all the stops, hosting a Bert Blyleven Week over at The Baseball Analysts. Rich kicked it off yesterday while Rob Neyer guest stars today. Dayn Perry is up tomorrow. By the end of the week, you too will be persuaded--if you aren't already--that Blyleven belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Also, for a touching non-baseball story, please slide on over to Catfish Stew and dig the latest from our own Ken Arneson. A lyrical piece accompanied by some great images.
First time Toaster poster here, so I'll touch all the bases.
-Red Sox soap opera: Ben and Jed are running the Sox? The Vermont ice cream guys? So what's the new Beantown flavor of the month, Manny Mallowdrama? Rich, sticky, nutty.
-Cash Not Pawning Pavano: Yeah, right. Wang and Cano are "untouchable," Pavano is more "touchable" than Angelina Jolie. Any takers?
-Nomar to NY: OK, bring it, and somebody please help Giambi embrace his DH destiny.
-Bernie's Return: In an similar effort to become younger, cheaper, and more flexible, "60 Minutes" just hired a kid named Mike Wallace, who throws better than Bernie.
But what if Cashman picks up Jason Michaels and/or Nomar? Then you are looking at far less playing time. Both Paul Blair and Roy White were less than average OFs (by range) in the '77-78 Championship years. As a fan I won't just tolerate Bernie as the 4th OF/part-time DH, I'll embrace it. Objectively he is a good 4th OF. Subjectively he's a beloved lifelong Yankee that I love to see on a ball field. If I go to the Stadium in '06 and Bernie is in the lineup, I'll feel lucky, not cheated.
nomar @ first? this seems silly. why are we going to play a guy who is a questionable hitter and injury risk out of position to replace a guy who is only 50% as effective when not playing the field?
i like the idea of having a bernie and nomar as the utlimate bench guys. between the two of them, you have the advantage of using a guy who has started (and succeeded) at the major league level backing up almost every position on the field. sure, 1998 this isn't, but it feels safer than kevin reese and felix escalona.
More sober topic, let's be realistic - if Damon is amenable to four years, the Yank's offer (what 60 mil?)would have to be obscene for him to take it over the Sawx. Face it, Boras will use us (as with Bernie in '98) to drive up the leverage to get what his client wants - a return to Fenway. If the Sawx are willing to got to 13/year at 4 or 5 plus an option, he stays.
The Nomar story smacks of something similar - telling the FA what he wants to hear to get him to sign on the dotted line. Noway Nomar is a regular 1B - more a regular DH/ utilityman - we all see this. But he wants a full-time regular job (who doesn't?) and that's what the Yanks will offer. But remember last year we went through the same thing with Giambi at 1B and got Tino. That set-up lasted one month. The numbers don't lie - G's value is much higher in the field than at DH. And Nomar's is probably the converse.
Cashman's engaged in a dangerous game of chicken with Boston's two-headed GM thingy.
Nobody wants to sign Johnny for more than 3 years, yet everbody knows he'll get at least 4.
I fear the Yanks will make Damon a 4 offer he won't refuse. Yikes.
The last thing the Yanks need is a 60 million dollar bottle of Bernie-lite.
Beware of hidden agendas and Gee's bearing gifts, especially in the area of centerfield, you never know what kind of left coast discussion you could innocently wander into.
Damon can hit but those rainbows to the cut off from the gap smell like extra bases to me. I could be driven insane having to watch it happen game after game after lousy stinking game, well more insane anyway. Would 2 years as a centerfielder and 2 years as a DH work? I have a bad feeling we may find out.
I hope we can get Michaels for the rumored Henn + another guy. That would be the best possible world. Save $15M/yr by not signing Damon, and get someone who can ACTUALLY PLAY CF!!!
Get Jason Michaels....Let the Sux keep Damon.
1. Bert Blyleven has long been number one on my list of the Best Ballplayers Not in the Hall of Fame. He's also a fabulous broadcaster.
2. Why would Seattle prefer a less-than-mediocre sore-armed $10 million Carl Pavano to a mediocre healthy $9 million Matt Clement?
3. If the Sox offer Johnny Damon $50 million for four years and the Yanks offer him $50 million and a dime, Boras will push him to the Yanks. I think he's worth that, barely, to the Sox for the three good years he probably has left and the fourth for career service. I don't think he's worth that to the Yanks. Damon was a good centerfielder prior to last year, he'd averaged a +5 RAA from 2000-2004. Last year, he was a -5. Certainly, the drop of a point or two had to do with age, but his decline last year was primarily due to his playing banged up much of the year, playing through a shoulder injury the second half of the season that would have shut many lesser players down. I expect that in 2006, he will be a plus centerfielder again. He still has decent speed, has tremendous judgement and a great first step. The arm, while a liability for sure, is no nearly as bad as it was last year with the shoulder injury.
Yes, I see it as a career service thing. I'd guess two more very good years, one decent year, and one Bernie 2005 year. Because of what he means to the Sox franchise, I can see justifying paying him for that last year.
On the other hand, a big portion of Damon's value will be the simple fact that the other team doesn't have him.
If you look at the history of Boras' work, I think you'll find that they always take the most money without regard to where they'd be a better fit or where they'd rather play.
In Damon's case, according to Baseballreference, he's already earned $45 M in baseball. Is it worth taking another $45 M rather than $50 M to play where you're happy, be it Boston, Houston or Pougkeepsie? Perhaps to Damon. Not to Boras. Really, what is Damon going to do with that last $5 M?
I can comment on the CF situation without drinking a certain tonic. But since you brought up that "the alternatives lag far behind" here's another comparison just for you!
Average of last three years -
Player A:
.298 BA; .364 OBP; .440 SLG
Player B:
.293 BA; .378 OBP; .470 SLG
Same hitter's, but B's got more pop.
Same positions, so:
A: .989 FP, 2.55 RF, 43 Assists in 1037 games
B: .988 FP, 2.59 RF, 35 Assists in 453 games
Identical fielders, but B's got a much better arm.
Guesses?
A = Damon, 32yo, ~14mil/for 4 - 7 years
B = Milton, 28yo, 3mil/ for one arbitration year
That wsport is value! Now of course, you can bring up the "he's crazy" argument, and you're right, but as I've said before you're a hypocrite for doing so, esp. if you cheered for Sprewell while he was in town. Same story there and NYers loved him.
Now I have been investigating other possibilities and besides MIL-ton, you're right the rest do lag far behind. Sorry ChuckM, J. Reed is barely, and if that, an upgrade over Bubba. But anyone know the stories with Ryan Church in Wash in Chris Duffy in PIT? They seem like reasonable options (both have decent minor league numbers), with Michaels, as possibilities to either platoon with Bubba or win the job outright.
Your argument is fine next year, but Yankee fans, like Sox fans, are impatient and want to win now. I'm guessing, as well, that Vernon Wells will wind up in Toronto for a long time to come.
http://www.all-baseball.com/archives/021295.html
Bernie had a better offer from Boston in 1998 (I think it was 91 mil? versus 87 from the Yanks). The agent's job is to get the options. The player chooses. If his comments before the season, and his hair, mean any anything, Damon stays in Beantown.
You're missing a few key numbers:
Player A - 2050 plate appearances
Player B - 1336 plate appearances
What's your point? MB's gets hurt? So what? Even if he plays 100 games (~ his 3 year average) and Bubba plays the other 62, it's still 3mil well spent. Of course, if he plays more (like the 140 in 2004), that's an added bonus.
Now you could also be making the point that 1336 is too small of a sample. If so, you should pick up any statistics textbook.
But who cares what we think? It's going to come down to a battle of wills and wallets between Steinbrenner and the shadowy Boston (two heads are better than none) braintrust.
Nobody should underestimate Steinbrenner's long-suffering addiction to expensive, flawed superstars like Damon.
If anybody knows how to exploit that addiction it's Steinbrenner's favorite dealer, Boras.
Ah, but nobody should underestimate Lucchino's petty hatred of Steinbrenner. He'll build a roof over old Fenway and re-name the place the Damon Dome if it will prevent Johnny from bolting Beantown for the Bronx.
Somebody will be suckered into giving Damon that fifth year, and I suspect it will be a two-headed sucker named Ben and Jed.
Didn't cheer for Spree, found no pleasure in that fraudulent little Knick run for Stern's roses. Yeah I'm one of those knuckle heads who still longs for the days of Clyde, Willis, Bradley, DeBusscher, Cazzy, Barnett etc. I miss Brad Park and Eddie Giacomin, Hadfield, Peter Stemkowski, Bobby Rousseau and all the rest. And I'm sure all those guys weren't saints. And I'm sure there is a facet of inconsistency in my views on Uncle Milty. Well we know what Desraeli said about inconsistency and small minds.
I'm sure you are right about Milty. He's an efficient option in CF. Probably the best out there. Lord help me, I just can't do it.
What did Desraeli say? As a small mind I feel I should know!
As for Crazy Uncle MIL-ton, I think all along that's all I've been trying to say: 1) He's efficient; 2) He's probably the best CF option out there. No wonder Billy Bean was on his trail - probably before the price got a bit too high, or the Dodgers pulled him back during the GM turnover, we'll find out soon enough. The character bit comes in and really is a red herring against him (ad hominem) but makes his value that much better. We can argue all day about what character means for a team, but character doesn't swing the bat or catch the ball - two things we need in CF. Now, if his contract was more expensive (more than one year) or we needed to deal more than Pavano/$$/ and maybe a prospect, I'd say it's not worth it. But at the reported price for his services (most recent: Todd Walker and D. Bautista), it's still a no brainer that the Yanks damn well should be in on.
That said, I believe the Yankees should avoid Milton Bradley. I think there is a very strong case to be made that Milton Bradley will not be swinging the bat or catching the ball if the Yankees sign him, because he will be in jail.
His relationships with members of the media are, at best, poor. New York is the last place in North America he should be playing baseball.
Milton Bradley could possibly play in Arizona or Kansas City. Here? Hell no.
You're entitled to your opinion but...that argument is so much worse than anything approaching the even more ridiculous clubhouse chemistry. The kids got issues, but he's been in jail (for three days) for disorderly conduct. Yet somehow he's going to be in jail the whole time? That's silly. And somehow he's not going to get along with the media? That argument is from one data point - he called a reported an Uncle Tom. Again, so what (see Randy Johnson)? Y'all are grasping at the littlest bits to argue against him.
Now, do I think he's a great person? Hell no. But do I think he'll get the CF job d-u-n? Hell yes and to more than justify any expense (players, money, and distraction).
Okay, I just about raped the horse. Luckily (for me and y'all) I'm heading to India for a month and the chances of internet are slim to none. When I return, I'll either be rejoicing at the Yanks good choices or damning how cheaply MIL-ton went. The truth will probably fall somewhere in the middle. Who knows, we could be debating Uncle Milton through July!?
Not for 5 years!
Not for 4 years!
Not for 3 years!
Not even for 2 years!
Damon's arm sucks, his shoulders suck, and his pseudo-Jesus schtick sucks too. And Joe is right, I'd like a chance to bid on Andruw Jones or Vernon Wells in '07.
If this were the old Yankees and Steinbrenner was simply throwing $$$ at players, I'd maybe understand such a move. But, in an offseason where the Yankee FO is supposedly doing the prudent thing and carefully/strategically acuiring players with the long-term health of the team in mind, a Damon signing would be even harder to accept.
As for Nomar, the following little tidbit is now on Rotoworld: "The Blue Jays are out of the chase for free agent Nomar Garciaparra, GM J.P. Ricciardi confirmed.
"We're done with him," Ricciardi said. "He has more money on the table some place else." The Yankees, Indians, Dodgers, Orioles, Braves, Astros and Pirates are among the clubs known to have interest in Garciaparra.
Hmmm...I just can't see Nomar going to the Braves, Pirates, or Orioles. So, my guess is it'd be between the Yanks, Indians and 'Stros. If I were Nomar, I'd take the Cleveland offer and be the veteran on a playoff calibre team. But, as a Yankee fan, I'd really like to see him wearing pinstripes.
Lastly, Ausmus just signed with Houston...which gives the team that much a better shot a resigning Roger Clemens if he decides to come back.
As a baseball player, injury concerns aside, Milton Bradley would be a great pickup for the Yanks.
BUT - Ned Colletti and the Dodgers are not idiots. They won't non-tender Bradley, they'll trade him for something of value.
What, exactly, do the Yankees have of value to give the Dodgers for Bradley? Cashman clearly has a plan, and part of that is to hold on to the kids. What does that leave to trade, Pavano? Wright? Small? I don't see why the Dodgers would take any one, or combination, of those guys.
As for Nomah, he'd make a great bench player/utility guy/DH, but by no means should he play first base. Ever. Giambi doesn't hit when he DHs. Doesn't everyone know this by now?
Milton Bradley is Ron LeFlore in reverse!
I don't think for a moment that Cashman would sign him. That said, the basebll press has to have something to speculate about when its a slow news cycle, no?
The reason I don't think an Ad Hominem attack is a not a logical fallacy in this case is that Milty's character and actions do have a bearing on the truth or falsity of the claim being made, that is that Milty is not a good fit in the big town. Who knows though maybe you're right.
Have a good trip, don't take any wooden Rupees or kick any cows. In India anyway.
I'm friends with a guy that's friends with Merloni (sounds pretty ridiculous when you actually type it out) and he has said on several occasions that the few times he's been out with Merloni and Nomar, Nomar was a miserable person that complained about everything. It's quite a different impression than I ever got of Nomar through the media, prior to his exile (exit) from Boston.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5164460
Total PA
At 1B: 1094
At DH: 815
3-year average OPS at 1B: 1.100
3-year average OPS at DH: 0.832
You can see Giambi's had about 43% of his plate appearances at DH and 57% at 1B. If he DH's only when he's banged up, he's banged up a lot, and that's a problem. But there's a clear pattern there.
I don't have the data for when he played in Oakland, but he played a lot more first base, so the DH sample is probably too small. Anecdotally, I've heard the pattern was the same there.
Just for reference, his 2004 was quite different:
OPS at 1B: 0.688
OPS at DH: 0.765
Has anyone looked at Giambi's defensive win share numbers at 1b. They are a-freking-bysmal. Someone needs to take that young man in tow, have a good long heart to heart with him and explain that he's a @#%&*! DH. Period. Buy him some Dr Ruth tapes or what ever it takes, help him get his head around it or out of it or whatever and move the F on. Love the kid, he's been through hell. He came back like a trooper. He's a DH.
There, now I feel better.
Last year Giambi hit .319 with 24 homers and 65 RBIs with an on-base percentage of .471 and a slugging percentage of .664 as a first baseman compared to .209 with eight homers, 22 RBIs, a .404 on-base percentage and a .367 slugging percentage.
To be fair, he had 238 at-bats as a first baseman and 177 as a DH.
In the past three years, Giambi is a .274 hitter with 56 homers and 157 RBIs at first compared to a .217 hitter with 29 and 77 RBIs as the DH with 174 more at-bats as a first baseman.
"Now batting for the Yankees... the center fielder... Bubba Crosby... numbuh 18..."
FWIW, Ken Rosenthal reports that Bradley will play a corner OF position.
I don't want Kotsay. He's not worth what Beane would ask for in return.
1. Nomar at SS, Derek in CF
2. Nomar at 3B, Derek in CF, ARod at SS
3. Nomar at 2B, trade Cano for a center fielder.
Time and again Beane shows you why a stacked farm system is a good idea. The reason the Yankees can't really trade their good prospects is because it will leave them with no good prospects. One trade and the farm system is filled with mediocre Kevin Reese, Jorge DePaula types.
We carried Wo-is-me-mack for a year and we lived through it and still made the playoffs. Bernie offers a lot more then Womack did.
Bernie can NOT PLAY IN ANOTHER UNIFORM!
Have the Yankees been part of your life for over 15 years?
We can NOT LET Bernie PLAY IN ANOTHER UNIFORM!
It is that simple.
Another year of development, and a good 2006 draft will put them where they need to be if they keep what they have.
Just when you had me about ready to drink the punch...
...sorry, man.
I believe I have read numerous times that Cash and Beane are friends and I certainly hope Cash has the willpower to say no to his good friend on this one. (Unless Beane wants DePaula and Proctor for him)
It doesn't make sense to rearrange the Yankees' entire defensive alignment just to accommodate a guy who may or may not spend half the season on the DL. Plus, do we even know he can handle any positions other than short and, possibly, third? No. We don't.
I truly appreciate your loyalty. If I recall correctly, you were one of the few guys on this site who supported Giambi when he was at his nadir (while I was ranting for the Yanks to cut his ass). And I understand your passion for keeping Bernie around, but I just cannot will myself to condone it.
First off, the whole premise of preserving the "Ruben Sierra role" (Cashman term) is ludicrous from a winning baseball perspective. More to the point, having one-dimensional players (who no longer possess even that one dimension) inhibits a roster's versatility and, ultimately, its effectiveness.
And, let's be honest: We all know Torre's proclivities all too well. Given another dubious CF situation, you can go ahead and pencil Bernie in for another 500+ AB's.
I absolutely agree that we can get a better player then Bernie for a 25th guy. However, Bernie might post average type numbers.... which is enough for us, considering the rest of our line-up, and our lack of outfield talent.
Bernie has given us 15 years, and like all Yankee greats, he will be with us, and the next generation for many more years. Yankee baseball is a lot about history. I don't think this can be totally ignored for the sake of a replacement player who is good for 1 or 2 more wins a year then Bernie.
Look at our bench last year. And we still made the PS. I just believe that if Bernie is the worst guy on our team, that we can and will still win.
This is not just loyalty, or hostory, or Yankee tradition... it is about all 3. Bernie is a true Yankee and has earned the right to retire as one. Part of us having money has been about retaining players that we love, and keeping our team togther. There are many ways to win. I believe we can find one with Bernie still on the team.
I'd rather he retire. But if he IS going to play, and nobody is going to shoot him, then we need to keep him in pinstripes one more year.
Baseball may be 99% Business and only 1% game. But this is one of those 1% times.
Good points. And I agree that, on an ethical level, we should handle Bernie with care. Perhaps if our bench were a little deeper, maybe then I'd feel comfortable about Bernie being re-acquired.
In other words, I'd be happy to have Bernie back as a 25th man; but wouldn't you agree that this is unrealistic, considering Joe's propensity for playing "his" guys?
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