Oh, I forgot to work this into the links, but SG delivers another interesting article over at the Replacement Level Yankees Webblog:

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2005/11/should-yankees-trade-robinson-cano.html

Its time for the Yankees to give up, and accept the fact that they will stink for at least five years and start to rebuild.

Its a fact that the Yankees have invested to heavely to overpaid over the hill players who will not be able to produce the kind of results that the team that Showalter/Michaels produced. Steinbrenner has ruined the team, and it will take time to rebuild.

Its amazing that the Yankees even had players of the caliber of Cano and Wang in their system (although we'll see how they do in their sophmore year, and if they can continue to produce), but maybe they should firesale a la Florida, and start to stock their system with prospects? How could it hurt?

Do you really want to see the Yankees not even make the post season this coming season while the Mets continue to get hot?

I think the Yanks should just give Giles a number and give him a deadline to get back to us.
If Giles doesn't want to come here then we should ask ourselves is Bubba good enough to get 500 AB and play CF for a yr. I don't think so. A trade is out of the question b/c any team would want to rob us. So I would entertain the thought of Preston Wilson. Ok he's not the best but I think he's better then Bubba. Preston can hit 270. around 30HRs 80 RBIs. Is he the best CF and will help us out for the next 5yrs? No. But he's better than Bubba.

And if we can't get back Gordon, I just can't trust Sturtze in the set up role so why not take a chance with Kyle Farnsworth? Ok so people have said stay away from him but you can't deny his numbers.
I rather take a chance on him then leave it up to Sturtze.
How about Travis Lee for 1st base/DH/PH? Would these guys be over paid? Yes, but they would also improve the team over what we have now.
And I'm still hoping Javier Vazquez will be available.

Rockbox, How do you figure the Yankees aren't even going to make the post-season this coming year (2006)? Just because the Yankees aren't out bidding obscene amounts of money for BJ Ryan, Wagner or getting in on the Beckett trade does not mean they are conceding defeat and starting a rebuilding process. The Yankees FO is trying to do the right thing and wait things out, I actually agree with this approach. If they get Giles and fill their bullpen with 3 quality arms, be it Gordon, Farnsworth and Colter Bean then that makes them a pretty good team. They do need that one lefty specialist, but maybe they can use Leiter in that role.

Maybe I don't think it of as doom-and-gloom as you. I'm not opposed to giving Bubba Crosby a shot, we don't need a great player at every position. Plus if I look back at some of our most memorable games this regular season, three in particular have Womack, Escalona and Bubba winning those games. Not Sheff, Jeter or an A-Bomb from ARod (BTW, have I ever mentioned how much I love when Sterling says that?) Matsui coming close on that list with his game winning hit against the Royals - when the Yanks came back from 35 runs in the ninth inning. I like this team's chances. Remember along with these high priced contracts (Matsui and Ryan) and these very public trades (Beckett and Delgado) also come expectations from fans and the team. If these players don't live up to their expectations, then it becomes much harder for them to ever live up to the expectations fans expect. All it takes is 3 days in a row coming up with the tying run on base and bouncing into a double play or a key out, or giving up the lead at the most inopportune time.

Rockbox, are you serious? The Yanks are still the co-favorites for the AL East with their current roster as is.

Any team with Jeter, Arod, Giambi, Shef, Randy, Mussina, Mariano, and Matsui is a bonafide contender.

The second half of last season was the REAL NY Yankees, not the shadow of a team we saw at the start.

The Yanks need a CF, a middle relief arm or two, and maybe one starting pitcher. Other than that, we're set.

All this doom and gloom is ridiculous. Yes, the Red Sox picked up a power arm with a high ceiling. But Beckett has as much of a chance for a season lost to an arm injury as he has for a 15+ win year.

The Red Sox picked up a SP with question marks attached, a reliever with questions marks attached and a 3B with question marks attached. Look at their infield!! They have a new 3B coming off of two successive sub-par seasons, a headcase/dissapointment at SS, no 2B and no 1B. They have a #1 Starter (Schilling) who very well may be in decline. A #2 Starter who wants to be traded (Wells). A #3 starter who is a headcase (Matt Clement). A closer with both injury and head case issues. No CF and a RF who wants to jet to the West Coast.

Since when is this a team that will run away with the AL East in '06? Sheesh, guys...we're being a bit too premature to start talking about fire sales.

I still think Cashman has a trick or two up his sleeves. Remember, Arod was traded for just before SP in '04. The winter meetings are coming up...so lets see what happens there before we start jumping off bridges.

unpopster's right. As tough as it might be to sit on the sidelines while other teams are spending freely and making headline trades (remember there's no luxury tax this year except for the Yankees and Red Sox), we owe it to Cashman and ourselves to see if this is a brilliant strategy for the long-term based on the inferior free-agent and trade markets this off-season or whether it's really cost-cutting for the sake of cost-cutting. Hopefully, Cashman's got a plan. Bottom-line, the Yankees would still be at least co-favorites going into 2006 as is. When Gammons floats suggestions like trading Clement for Lowe, you know RSN is in serious doubt.

While I think that Rockbox is over pessimistic, it seems to me that unpopster is in fantasyland.

The Yanks offense is obviously no problem. Johnson is a quality number 2 at this point. Beyond that the rotation is nothing but question marks. I wouldn't include Mussina in the list of sure things given his age and elbow. The bullpen beyond Rivera is non-existent.

Regarding unpop's view of the Sox starting rotation, there is no question that Schilling is in decline. However, he's working his butt off getting healthy and putting himself in top physical condition for spring. The number 2 starter is the young stud, Beckett, not Wells. The number 3 starter is the young stud, Papelbon, not Clement. With Clement, Wakefield, and Arroyo to round out the rotation, they should be just fine.

Both teams still have a lot of work to do. We'll know a lot more after the winter meetings. What we do know is that the Sox pitching is set. With Foulke (?), Hansen, Delcarmen, Mota, Arroyo (probably), Timlin, and DiNardo, the Sox bullpen has been substantially rebuilt.

The Yanks get to pick from 7 starters (with the remaining 2 going into the bullpen or becoming trade bait). You can certainly make a workable rotation out of the starting pitchers that are already under contract.

I don't know that one could say (with a straight face) that Clement, Wakefield and Arroyo are guaranteed locks as a better 3,4 and 5 starters than some combination of Chacon,Wang,Pavano,Wright and Small. The jury is still out on Pavano and Wright but I know I would rather Wang and Chacon have in the rotation than Clement and Arroyo.

"The Sox pitching is set". Oh yeah...I'll believe that one when I see it. In Mota I see Felix Rodriguez, so don't get your hopes up too much. Delcarmen is not ready. Hansen still has to work on his slider otherwise, as Melvin Mora proved, he can be hit pretty easily. Timlin is almost 40, last year's big load probably took a lot out of him. Which leaves Foulke, Arroyo and DiNardo.....Foulke is done, he parties too hard and does NOT want to be in Boston. Arroyo will be a good long man and DiNardo wasn't even recogninzed in his own house for Thanksgiving, but I'm sure he'll be good this year. Whatever Debris is smoking...I want some of it. You were right in saying: "Both teams still have a lot of work to do".

I would like to mention that Papplebon is going to be the suprise starter this year in the AL. I see him coming big for the Sawx.

debris, I think much of the Boston media is in fantasy land, thank you.

Schilling may be the #1 starter and the "young stud" Beckett very well may be penciled in as the #2 starter, but as someone in USA Today recently pointed out, the year that Beckett throws more than 200 innings, wins more than 15 games and strikes out more than 200 men will be his FIRST doing so. And this is after spending his career in an extreme pitcher's park. Add in his shoulder problems and persistent blister issues, if you are counting on him to solidy your #2 spot than you're already in trouble.

As for Papelbon being your #3 starter. How many career wins does he have? three? EXACTLY!! Good luck.

As for Randy Johnson being a #2 starter, the same ridiculous comments were thrown around after Clemens' first -- and forgettable -- season in Yankee pinstripes. I'll bet the house that Randy bounces back in a HUGE way in '06.

The Yanks currently have 7 pitchers vying for 5 spots in the rotation (Randy, Moose, Pavano, Wright, Wang, Shacon, and Small). Yes, beyond Johnson none are sure things. But Mussina is still a fine #3 starter and Pavano (if still with the Yanks) will easily win more than 4 games in '06. Small and Chacon probably won't duplicate their second half runs, but much more is expected from Pavano, Wright and Wang. Remember, the Yanks just shedover $37mm in big contracts at the end of the '05 season (Brown, Bernie, Karsay, Tino, Sierra, etc.). Don't rule out a big splash made by Cashman for a top-of-the-order starter (i.e. Zito?).

Good stuff on http://www.all-baseball.com/ about Jason Michaels and the Yanks. I'll paste the paragraph:

"Now that the Phillies have stockpiled center fielders—the steal of Aaron Rowand gives them three viable options, along with solid backup Jason Michaels and top prospect Shane Victorino—they've begun talks with the Yankees about making a trade for some pitching. The Phils would love to add Shawn Chacon to a thinning staff that could lose both Billy Wagner and Ugueth Urbina, but might settle for Aaron Small in a deal for Michaels. The Yankees' preference would be to unload Carl Pavano, but that would require a financial commitment (i.e. eating some nasty-tasting contract) on their part; besides, Pavano is strictly a starter, whereas the Phillies would prefer a more versatile pitcher like Chacon or Small, both of whom have recent experience out of the bullpen… Would Michaels be a legitimate answer to the Yankees' center field woes? The answer here is yes. In fact, some folks in the Phillies' organization thought that he should have been given the fulltime job in Philadelphia, rather than make trades for Kenny Lofton and Endy Chavez. Over the last two years, Michaels has compiled a respectable on-base percentage of .381 despite having to combat the perils of sporadic playing time. In the field, the 29-year-old Michaels is an above-average defender; though he lacks the sprinter's speed that would be ideal for center field, he makes up for the deficiency with good jumps, a healthy dose of aggressiveness, and a strong throwing arm. Yes, the Yankees could manage with Michaels as the starter, backed up by the solid defense of Bubba Crosby… Michaels would be a more realistic acquisition than Ichiro Suzuki, who would likely cost the Yankees at least one (and possibly both) of their 2005 rookie contributors, Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. The Yankees don't want to trade either, making a deal for Suzuki an improbability…"

I would really like us to hang on to Chacon, that kid can pitch. If Cashman is right about hanging on to guys that you know can perform in NY when the heat is on then he is a keeper. Small might be a flash in the pan I guess if you think you can get value in return for him then you have to think about it. But if he's the real deal I don't think you can get equal value right now and moving him will come back to bite us in the ass. I see that as a very hard call.

The Yanks would be nuts to deal Chacon. He pitched well for them and being out of Colorado makes one a different pitcher. Mussina's age and elbow problems make him a huge question mark. Pavano's one good year is receding and he's a health question. Wright's one good year is receding and he's a health question. Small's vial of Magic Dust is likely spent. After Johnson and Wang, Chacon is the likliest bet to give the Yanks good innings.

And my mention of Wakefield, Clement, and Arroyo was not to round out the 3-4-5 slots in Boston, but to vie for the 4-5 slots. And it's actually just Clement and Arroyo for number 5. Wakefield is a lock for the number 4 position, making him probably the best number 4 starter in the AL.

SG's idea (from the post linked Alex provided) of bolstering the bullpen from the Rule V draft certainly seems like a good one to me. We almost certainly won't get a Johan Santana, but in Davis Romero I see a possible Andy Sisco. Of course its problematic since the Yankees have a late pick, but I can see him being available.

I don't know if Chacon's the real thing, but I do know that he's fun as hell to watch out there. And I agree that the Yanks have to stop getting rid of guys with a proven track record (even if it's just a half-season's worth) in the Bronx. Chacon seems like a guy who thrives in the fishbowl. That's rare. Let's keep 'em.

What bothers me most is Cashman's apparent contentment with the starting staff. Quantity is not equal to quality. Right now, we have Johnson followed by a slew of question marks. What would be the harm in acquiring another proven AL arm a la Kevin Millwood?

You know, we can piss in the wind all we like: my daddy can beat your daddy and the like, but the fact remains that there's still a long winter ahead and while we can jockey all we like, both teams have a lot of work to do and then 162 games to play.

Living here in Burlington Vermont which probably splits 60-40 between Sox and Yank fans and reading what I do on the boards, there is one simple fact that is inescapable: Sox fans are a lot happier with what they see their front office doing at the moment, but in terms of roster building and player development, than are Yankee fans.

strangeluck: the rule 5 draft doesn't usually reap instant rewards. The player has to be kept on the roster for a full season, occupying one of the 25 roster slots, and is typically lightly used. The Red Sox have kept a player each of the last two years: Lenny DiNardo, who appears on the verge of becoming a very valuable lefty out of the pen, and Adam Stern, who appears on the verge of nothing. It should be noted that George Bell and Roberto Clemente were both rule 5 draftees who panned out very well. Bell, drafted in 1981, became a solid major leaguer in 1984 and Clemente, drafted in 1955 became a solid player in 1956 and a superstar in 1960. I wouldn't count on reaping immediate rewards from the Rule 5 draft; players available are usually quite a ways from being ready for the majors otherwise they'd be on the 40 man roster.

Hey debris, I'm happy you had a nice Thanksgiving and are in a great mood:

"Johnson is a quality number 2 at this point." yeah, right, the BoSox would wish. You probably missed the 2nd. half of his season.

"Beyond that the rotation is nothing but question marks. I wouldn't include Mussina in the list of sure things given his age and elbow." With his elbow and his age he pitched 180 innings last season, and had some great games. He is the 2nd. starter at this point.

"The bullpen beyond Rivera is non-existent." yeah, they still have to get a set-up man to fill in the Gordon role, and they are going to get him. The other space-savers are not excellent but I believe a few of them can contribute.

"However, he's working his butt off getting healthy and putting himself in top physical condition for spring." OK, Schilling may rebound, and would you prefer him as your number 1 starter instead of RJ?

"The number 2 starter is the young stud, Beckett, not Wells." OK, so Mussina is a question mark for the Yanks, but Beckett is the no question number 2 starter for the Sox...

"The number 3 starter is the young stud, Papelbon, not Clement." He of the 34 innings is your stud sure-fire number 3 starter?

"With Clement, Wakefield, and Arroyo to round out the rotation, they should be just fine." yeah, and the Yanks are in trouble with Pavano, Wright, Chacon and Small filling in those roles.

Double standards are fun, especially when using them in a Yankee fan website...

I like the Michaels idea, especially if all the Yankees have to give up is Small. Unlike most other center field suggestions (Pierre, et al), he is a clear upgrade over Crosby.

If a Michaels-type opportunity does not open up in the winter, I would start the season with Crosby and wait until a trade possibility does open up. Realize that if Pavano gets off to a strong start, his trade value will skyrocket. Claiming a surplus in starting pitching in November is dicey, but making such a claim in June can give a team a lot of leverage.

As for the bullpen, the obvious choice seems to be to out-bid the market for Farnsworth.

As for the Rule 5 suggestion, Rule 5 draft picks must remain on the 25-man roster for the entire season (or be returned to sender). That is why the Rule 5 draft is generally only used by rebuilding teams.

But tocho, you're missing debris's "inescapable" point: According to his survey of message boards, Red Sox fans are happier than Yankees fans right now.

Therefore...???

Debris, you do have a point about the Rule 5 draft, though. Any team that is basing its offseason hopes on striking gold in the Rule 5 draft is in sorry shape. I don't think there's any evidence the Yankees are doing that. I'm sure they aren't ignoring the possibility of getting value from the draft, but with their position, they aren't likely to get much.

Marcus,
I wouldn't necessarily agree with your concern over the Yanks position in the Rule 5 draft. Most teams skip it entirely. The Sox, drafting late in 2003, got DiNardo, who is likely to have a respectable Ed VandeBerg/Lenny Whitehouse type career.

Tocho,

I'm glad you're happy with Mussina as your number two. The last time he was a better than league average pitcher was 2003. His ERA the last two years is 4.50. That might be a number 2 pitcher in Queens, but it sure isn't in the Bronx. Beckett is 3.46, though I'd add half a point to that compensating for park and league. (Matt Clement, btw, is 4.02 over the last two years and doesn't have a chronic elbow problem and isn't 38.)

And BTW, I wouldn't bet the ranch against Johnson winning the Cy next year and I wouldn't rather have Schilling as my number 1. But I'd sure much rather have a 1-2 of Beckett and Schilling than Johnson and Mussina.

Beckett has had three consecutive good seasons. Wright and Pavano have two good season between them.

Hey Debris, try not to run into any trees when skiing at Stowe or Killington. Wouldn't want your Sux hat to get in the way of your "vision" and impede your ability to see all things dressed in Red Sox garb, and your ability to measure/gauge happiness between Sux and Yankee fans.

It's far from over and for you to say that after 1 month into the hot-stove that Red Sox fans are much happier than Yankee fans is a bunch of bull. Two weeks ago everyone was still sad with Theo gone, all of a sudden everything is cured and it's 'F- Theo' time. Pah-lease....

"Beckett has had three consecutive good seasons." Doesn't a 'season' for a pitcher constitute pitching over 200+ innings and making 30+ starts? Did Beckett pitch in three consecutive strike shortened seasons?
If yes, then he pitched three seasons. But last I heard there weren't strike shortened seasons the last three years in the MLB, so Beckett pitched good in three injury plagued seasons.

From Rotoworld.com:

"Jorge DePaula gave up an unearned run and five hits over six innings for Escogido of the DWL yesterday.
He has a 3.65 ERA in four appearances. DePaula has turned into a forgotten man since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2004, but he still has a chance to contribute, probably as a reliever."

Perhaps DePaula would be a good in-house solution in middle relief.

Giving up Small makes me nervous, but I guess you have to give up something to get something. I have two questions about it: Do you think Small is unlikely to duplicate last years performance either starting or swinging out of the pen? Do you think Michaels alone provides more value on an everyday basis than Small and Crosby? With the age at the top of this staff trading starting pitching makes me nervous. I see a lot of De Paula and Henn if we do that. It would be great if they were ok but I just don't know.

wsporter: small is 32. the likelihood of his turning in another half-season of nearly the same quality as last year is slim at best. as previoulsy mentioned, michaels's career OBP is .381. he'd be the most solid #9 hitter since brosius.

btw, who is our DH in this scenario? and when did steinbrenner get so senile he started writing checks for the blue jays?

Murphy: I agree that not too many guys turn it around at such an advanced baseball age, but its not like this guy has had an overwhelming number of opportunities to prove himself with a quality team. I don't know that its outside the realm of possibility. Who knows, the expected value of Michael's return may be greater than that of Crosby and Small together. My only point is that I think it's a tough call.

As a DH I like a mix of Matsui, Sheffield, Giambi, Phillips and Giles. Giles is important and I think would make Michaels or someone like him, even Crosby, a lot more palatable.

It's hard to imagine a scenario where Small's value increases any more than what it is right now. I say put a bow on him for Michaels, just in time for Christmas.
I don't seen Pierre in pinstripes. The gravy train from Fla stops in Queens and then heads straight to Boston.
Chacon has youth on his side and seems to thrive on the intensity of the Bronx. Don't think that a wiley former catcher like Torre didn't have anything to do with his performance. I'd much rather hang on to him simply for the youth factor.

Wagner is a Met.
Gordon grows more expensive by the hour.

dear mr. steinbrenner,

there is no need to panic. the mets are still #2 in this town. let 'em have the back pages. (PLEASE!!!) we'll take the series.

yours truly,
murphy

Chacon can pitch, hang on to him for that. Gordon and Farnsworth sound good to me.

The chances of Small duplicating his what, 10-1 record (20-2 over a full season?), are 0.000% The track record's not there and even the best pitchers rarely win 90+% of their games. He'll most likely be a serviceable middle reliever/spot starter. That's all he needs to be for the Yankees.

Bullpens are usually fickle. What team really has a solid pen 3-4 years in a row. IIRC, by 2000 even the Yankees' bullpen was a weak spot. Pens are made up of guys who can't start or close. If a guy does well 3-4 years in a row he'll 1) want to start (& make big bucks) 2) want to close (& make big bucks) or 3) want to up his salary to big bucks, at which point he's shown the door and the team (any of the 30 teams) looks around for a cheaper replacement. What the Yankees' scouts need to do is look for guys who have shown promise in the past but are a bit scuffed up right now, poised to have 2-3 good years in a row.

And keep Chacon!

small for michaels sounds mighty good to me. small pitched well, but to expect anything close to last year is a long shot. i say thank him for his service and get a good CF.

Actually Small was an slightly more unbelievable 10-0 on the season. I agree: sell high and get Michaels.

Has anyone floated the idea of using Wright in a short relief role? He still throws pretty hard (likely even harder if he only has to go one inning) and with his durability issues it might be more ideal. If that worked it'd go a ways towards the short relief problem, and you also have him around if a frontline starter goes down. What do people think?

I would offer Giles three years, $39 million and would be prepared to go higher, if necessary.

I would sign Farnsworth for the pen.

debris and marcus,

I realize that you usually don't reap much in the way of immediate rewards from the Rule V draft, but I don't think its entirely fair to be comparing Romero to a guy like Lenny DiNardo. If you look at what he's done so far, Romero's numbers are far better, and he's far younger. Indeed, by age and performance, he's very similar to Andy Sisco, and while there is a huge physical difference (Sisco is around a foot taller and 100 lbs heavier), I don't think it'd be a stretch to see Romero be a decent lefty in the bullpen.

Oh, and if Romero ends up flopping, you just let him go and all you've lost is $25 thousand and a pro-rated portion of league minimum salary.

strangeluck, I don't doubt that Romero deserves a look, my point is that a guy with obvious value is not likely to drop to the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. So putting too much hope in the Rule 5 draft to help the Yanks' bullpen woes is not a good plan.

the padres used Wright in middle and late inning relief (albeit prior to his revival with Atlanta) and he wasn't very effective. too many walks and long innings as i recall. he certainly has the stuff, i think it's a question of his head.

Strangeluck,

First off, I'm not familiar with Romero, but if he were close to ML ready, he would most likely be on his team's 40 man roster. Most likely he wouldn't flop because he wouldn't get the innings to get that chance. And remember, this is year 3 for diNardo. Year one he sat, eating a roster spot and pitching 28 innings of mediocre mopup ball. Year two, he mostly spent in the minors before logging 15 fabulous innings with the Sox in September, earning himself a good look in March, but no guarantee of making the club.

Re: Small for Michaels. I don't know that it is necessarily a bad move. Small may be at the Zenith of his value now. If so the Michaels deal might be a good one. If during the 06 season however Small approaches what he did last year, not even necessarily in record because that was just sick, but if he approaches the same level of skill and competence he will be worth a hell of a lot more than Michaels. We will then have moved a very valuable asset (i.e. high skill low cost) for far less than we could have gotten by exercising some patience. I don't think its that easy a call because I'm not sure he's not good, I guess I can't get that Boston game out of my head. Plus, I hate moving ML pitching without getting pitching back.

I can't see the New York Yankees releying on the Rule V draft to resolve Bull Pen needs. If we have to do that we have some real problems that extend far beyond the state of the BP.

Did I miss something? Is Small signed to a Yankees contract for 2006?

Doesn't Small fall under Protected Status as a player with less than 6 years of Major League service that is not signed to a multi-year contract?. Given that Small has less than 3 years of service (or was not eligible for salary arbitration), his contract can get renewed in the first two weeks of March or earlier for at least the minimum salary. Has that rule changed? He's on the 40 man and Active rosters and I'm assuming we're not thinking of cutting him loose for nothing. Trading him for Michaels would be one thing but that would be just plain silly. Or maybe you know something I don't, which would not come to me as a great surprise as I find I learn something new here everyday.

Wow.

Maybe Joe's been following Bronx Banter.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2240207